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The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture is working to increase exports of Indonesian white jasmine flowers. These efforts will be realized more quickly if the competitiveness and development potential of commodity in various export destination countries are known. Therefore, this study aims to determine the competitiveness and development potential of white jasmine flower exports. The data used is the 2010-2019 time series data sourced from UN-COMTRADE and the trade map. The data were analyzed by using RCA to determine the competitiveness of commodities, followed by EPD to determine the position of the commodity market and the last stage with the X-model analysis to determine the potential for export development. The results show that the competitiveness of Indonesian white jasmine flowers is strong in China, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore and the United States and that Indonesian white jasmine flowers have potential in the optimistic category in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore and potential in China, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. This optimistic and potential market potential can be seized by Indonesia by striving for the quality of white jasmine flowers in accordance with the demands of export destination countries.

The increasingly meagre copper ore resources constitute one of the decisive factors influencing the price of this commodity. The demand for copper has been showing an accelerating trend since the Covid pandemic broke out. It is thereby imperative to estimate the future price movement of this material. The article focuses on a daily prediction of the forthcoming change in prices of copper on the commodity market. The research data were gathered from day-to-day closing historical prices of copper from commodity stock COMEX converted to a time series. The price is expressed in US Dollars per pound. The data were processed using artificial intelligence, recurrent neural networks, including the Long Short Term Memory layer. Neural networks have a great potential to predict this type of time series. The results show that the volatility in copper price during the monitored period was low or close to zero. We may thereby argue that neural networks foresee the first three months more accurately than the rest of the examined period. Neural structures anticipate copper prices from 4.5 to 4.6 USD to the end of the period in question. Low volatility that would last longer than one year would cut down speculators’ profits to a minimum (lower risk). On the other hand, this situation would bring about balance which the purchasing companies avidly seek for. However, the presented article is solely confined to a limited number of variables to work with, disregarding other decisive criteria. Although the very high performance of the experimental prediction model, there is always space for improvement – e.g. effectively combining traditional methods with advanced techniques of artificial intelligence.

The article considers a mathematical model that can be used to determine the optimal plan for the procurement of raw materials according to the preset timing of applications, determine the production plan, and calculate the optimal plan for the delivery of products. The specific feature of the model is that it can also plan the cutting of OSBs into workpieces of various lengths. It also considers the dependency between the price and the level of demand for finished goods. The purpose of our research was to assess the economic feasibility of interaction between a timber industry enterprise (with different levels of price and demand) and an international commodity market. Our hypothesis is that the interaction between the timber industry and the commodity market may be beneficial for the enterprise. The relevance of the study is determined by the lack of studies on the interaction of timber industry enterprises with the commodity market, with the latter being a source of raw materials. Various modelling methods were used for the assessment: mixed-integer linear programming (drawing up a model that finds the optimal vectors for cutting, procurement of raw materials, production of goods and their transportation based on the graph), the Monte Carlo method (generating initial conditions and parameters), and simulation modelling (for each state the cor responding task was solved). The main drawback of the model is that it requires a significant amount of RAM. The practical significance of the study is to prove the economic feasibility of purchasing raw materials from the commodity market of Russia. The theoretical value of the study is that it develops a new model for assessing the feasibility of purchasing raw materials using the market mechanisms. Scientific novelty is determined by the fact that it suggests a mathematical model for the formation of supply chains, drawing up a cutting plan and production volumes, taking into account the demand and available volume of raw materials. The model was tested using the data of one of the enterprises of the timber industry of the Primorsky Krai. It was used to optimize the volume of manufactured products and purchased raw materials from each region, as well as the number of cuts for each OSB and the stock of raw materials at the enterprise’s warehouse. Based on the results of testing, we assessed the feasibility of cooperation between the company and the commodity market. In 95 % of situations the cooperation is highly beneficial.

Produksi kentang di Kota Batu, Jawa Timur mengalami peningkatan namun tidak diimbangi dengan stabilitas harga yang diterima oleh petani, akibat dari persaingan pasar yang yang makin ketat. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis struktur pasar komoditas kentang asal Batu di wilayah Malang Raya. Metode pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah purposive sampling untuk pemilihan petani kentang, dan snowball sampling untuk menentukan pedagang di sepanjang rantai pemasaran untuk mengikuti aliran komoditi kentang. Analisis struktur pasar meliputi pangsa pasar, Concentration Ratio (CR4), dan Index Herfindahl Hirchman. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa struktur pasar komoditas kentang asal Batu di Malang Raya diukur dari pangsa pasar, rasio konsentrasi (CR) dan Indeks Herfindahl Hirschman mengarah pada pasar oligopoli. Hal ini diketahui karena diperoleh nilai CR4 yang diperoleh antara 20% - 80% dan nilai IHH > 0,1. Pada struktur pasar ini petani mempunyai posisi tawar yang rendah, dengan posisi sebagai penerima harga. Rekomendasi yang diberikan untuk menaikkan posisi tawar petani adalah dengan memperpendek saluran pemasaran, misalnya dengan pembinaan petani untuk melakukan pemasaran secara online, sehingga dapat mempunyai akses langsung pada konsumen akhir. Penelitian lanjutan yang perlu dilakukan adalah menganalisis struktur pasar secara lengkap dengan pendekatan struktur-perilaku-kinerja pasar kentang dan analisis pemasaran kentang secara digital.

Since the financialization of commodities, portfolio investments have become an important tool for investors to diversify risks. However, due to the nonlinear fluctuations brought about by extreme events, investors face more difficulties in the choice of risk portfolio. We adopt empirical mode decomposition and STVAR model, along with the basis data of optimized original sample interval. In addition, we retain the mature research of multiscale systemic risk under frequency and divide the dimension of systemic risk into two states. When frequency is combined with states, the risk spillover center undergoes subversive changes, particularly in the longest term, and metals become the risk spillover center, substituting the energy commodity, on the condition that the compositions of extreme value add persuasive power to the perspective of long term. We proposed that the joint fluctuation of agricultural commodities and energy commodities makes the former become another important risk spillover point. For investors, holding period and portfolio both need to be considered.

The aim of the article is to present possible consequences caused by the development of commodity market financialization understood by the influence of financial investor’s speculation. Also the task of elaboration is to outline the existence of financial factors in the price creation process of commodities. The existing impact of financialization on the volatility of commodity prices significantly modifies the market. The results of the research and analyzes carried out indicate a similarity in the behavior of the markets of commodities. The situation results from the redistribution of the risk of financial investors who having a few goods in the investment portfolio, next to large transaction volumes affect the unification of price trends. Price shaping factors are being transformed. The decrease importance of supply or consumption in the context of the commodities market changes its form. The growing influence of investors who create numerous speculations transforms the market. Trade in futures contracts affects the level of commodities prices.

Purpose Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework. Design/methodology/approach This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.

PurposeRisk aversion is considered as an important factor in predicting asset prices. Many studies have proved that there exists important price information spillover among crude oil, precious metals and agricultural markets. Then there naturally follows the question: Is the risk aversion of investors in crude oil market predictable for the returns of precious metals and agricultural products? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question. For this reason, the authors explore the directional predictability and the cross-quantile dependence between risk aversion of crude oil market investors and returns of precious metals and agricultural products.Design/methodology/approachTo better describe the risk aversion of investors, this paper uses high-frequency data and model-free calculation method to obtain variance risk premium of crude oil. Then, this paper uses the cross-quantilogram method to investigate the directional predictability and cross-quantile dependence between risk aversion of crude oil market investors and returns of precious metals and agricultural products. Meanwhile, it employs the partial cross-quantilogram (PCQ) method to test the impact of control variables on the empirical results.FindingsFirstly, risk aversion of crude oil market investors has directional predictability for returns of precious metals and agricultural products. Secondly, different degrees of risk aversion of crude oil market investors have different impacts on returns of precious metals and agricultural products. A low (high) degree of crude oil market investors' risk aversion has negative (positive) predictability for returns of precious metals and agricultural products. Finally, during the sample period, the returns of precious metals are more affected by risk aversion of crude oil market investors than returns of agricultural products.Originality/valueFirst of all, this paper studies the impact of risk aversion of crude oil market investors on returns of precious metals and agricultural products. It updates previous relevant studies on the factors influencing the prices of precious metals and agricultural products, and provides a new idea for the forecast of those commodity returns. Secondly, this paper provides the evidence that different degrees of risk aversion of investors have different effects on the returns of commodities, and expands the research on the topic of commodity returns prediction. Finally, high-frequency data are employed in this paper to better capture the risk aversion of investors than commonly used daily data.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the global financial markets, including energy commodities. The aim of the paper is to examine the reaction of the energy commodity market to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the epidemic status, the stringency of the government anti-COVID-19 policy, and the stock market volatility. We use daily data on the S&P GSCI Energy index, the number of new confirmed COVID-19 global cases, the self-developed Global Stringency Index, and the VIX index. The research covers the period from January 2 to September 30, 2020, i.e. the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model we observe a significant and negative energy commodity market’s reaction to the changes in the stock market volatility. Moreover, the results imply that the increase in the Global Stringency Index leads to the decline in the S&P GSCI Energy index but the reaction is significant only on the third day after the shock. We reveal no significant impact of global epidemic status on energy commodity prices.Keywords: energy commodities, COVID-19 pandemic; stock market volatility; Global Stringency Index; government anti-COVID-19 policy; structural vector autoregressive modelJEL Classifications: G01, G12, G15, H12, Q41DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11025

This paper focused on studying the agricultural commodity prices in India and it's extreme volatility due to many reasons such as government interference, growth, market forces factors, regular floods and droughts, transport and warehousing problems, etc. These are contributing factors to demand fluctuations. In this case, the future market plays an important role in the economy. The demand for commodity futures has three particular economic functions: price discovery, price risk management, and price volatility. The future market plays a key role in the process of price discovery. The main aim of this system is to regulate prices to minimize uncertainty, to provide price signals to market traders for futures spot prices through the price discovery phase. So, this study emphasized the role of the derivative market in reducing the volatility of agricultural commodity prices in the Indian market. Keywords: volatility, future market, derivatives

This paper investigates the implications for coal supply security for the domestic South African market when faced with weaker export demand. It expands on a previously introduced model of domestic coal trade, DOTRAMOD, by accounting for mining profit, the opening of new mines and the closing of loss-making mines. The results indicate that declining demand for exported coal would result in declining profits for multi-product mines. This would lead to the closure of some mines and reduced coal supply to domestic power producers. These results highlight the importance of the mine investment problem in commodity market studies.

This study estimates breakeven price distributions for irrigated and non-irrigated corn, cotton, and soybean production in Tennessee under conventional tillage and no-till for three field sizes and two sources of energy for irrigation. The distributions were compared using forecasted prices of corn, cotton, and soybean realized under different climate scenarios. The price simulation focuses on the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of drought-induced yield reduction on commodity market prices. Electric pump irrigation systems in the southeastern United States have lower energy costs and, thus, a lower breakeven price than diesel-fueled irrigation pumps. A corn producer could obtain a lower breakeven price per kg by irrigating fields of 51–81 hectares. Cotton and soybean producers managing fields of 81 hectares or less could realize lower breakeven prices by not irrigating. Under extended drought conditions during which the market price for corn, soybeans, and cotton are higher, irrigated corn is more likely to be profitable compared to irrigated cotton or soybeans. These results could inform the development of irrigation management plans for row crop producers in the southeastern United States.

Recently, the agricultural business is displayed a greater amount of risk because of price volatility growth. Consequently, it is necessary to have knowledge of how to regulate the risk of price fluctuations. This paper is concerned with the hedging techniques in the commodity market by the help of vanilla options. The main idea is to analyze option strategies with the ambition to demonstrate their utilization by hedging against increasing prices. Hedged buying price formulas are derived for every spot futures price. An additional contribution is considered for applying in the wheat trading. Chicago Mercantile Exchange products, i.e. wheat options on futures are investigated. The profitability of hedged scenarios is examined. A comparative analysis of the designed hedging variants is presented. Suggestions for potential wheat buyers are proposed.

The study sought to contribute to the extant literature on the interconnectedness between commodity spot prices and futures prices by covering daily data from 2001-2019. Employing the OLS and the QR, different dynamics of the relationship between commodity spot and futures prices emerged from the study. For oil and gold prices, OLS estimator revealed that neither spot nor futures prices of the commodities had a significant effect on the other. Quantile regression estimators however suggested otherwise. For oil prices, futures prices were found to have a significant positive effect on spot oil prices at the 60th and 75th percentile whereas spot oil prices were found to have a significant positive effect on the futures oil prices at the lower tail (0.1, 0.2, and 0.25 quantiles). For gold prices, futures gold prices had a significant positive effect on spot gold prices at the 75th percentile (3rd quantile) marked as the upper tail of the distribution whereas a significant negative effect was revealed at the middle quantile (50th percentile). For cocoa prices, both the OLS and the QR estimators were significant in either direction. A significant positive effect of futures (spot) cocoa price on spot (futures) cocoa price was observed across all quantiles in both directions. The results suggest that speculators and arbitrageurs in the commodity market must be concerned about the causality moving from one direction to another and take appropriate investment positions that protect their interests.

Manuscript type: Research paper Research aim: This study aims to provide fresh evidence on the presence of momentum profitability in the Indian commodity futures market. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study is based on a sample of highly traded commodity future contracts of the Indian commodity market over the period from 2006 to 2017. It applies the conditional multi-factor model to test the time-varying performance of momentum strategies. Research findings: This study confirms the existence of exceptionally high abnormal momentum profitability in the commodity futures market despite the presence of transaction costs. However, the application of conditional multi-factor model suggests that momentum profits are basically time-varying. The low and insignificant correlation of momentum portfolios with stocks and bonds confirm that relative strength momentum portfolios of commodity futures can be effectively used to create a well-diversified portfolio. Theoretical contribution/Originality: This study analyses the time-varying conditional profitability of momentum strategies for the commodity market of emerging economies such as India. It enriches the small group of studies conducted on commodity futures in the Indian context. The major contribution of the study is the use of conditional multi-factor model to assess the possible role of time-varying conditional alpha and beta to define the momentum payoffs in commodity futures market for the Indian context. Policy implications: Policymakers should design more lucrative policies so as to attract the institutional investors for investment in the Indian commodity market. This is because domestic and foreign institutional investors are central to the enhancement and stability of the financial market. Research implications/Limitations: The study uses the 13 highly traded commodity futures contract to design the momentum strategies. The robustness of the high abnormal returns given by these strategies can be investigated further by the use of extended study period and expanded cross section of commodity futures contract.

The article aims to find quantitative characteristics of the mechanism of enterprise risk sustenance from the point of view of rivalry between commodity market participants. Our analysis of publications revealed the root cause of the lack of known enterprise control systems, including the “Industry-4”technology: this is the lack of their activities formalization and the lack of resources’ quantity for such a description. The method of this mechanism and rivalry quantitative description based on previously devised enterprise model and published data on the market participants’ activities; using the enterprise math model, math models of various sizes markets with cyclical declines in consumption created and further vector model of rivalry in the market created. A quantitative definition of risks in the enterprise activities is given; owing to what fundamental expression for the moment of the crisis risk appearance found. The obtained quantitative ratios are necessary, significant, and repeatable for various sizes markets, due to which uncertainties in the enterprises control of various infrastructures reduced.

The article presents studies of the logistics structure of commodity market, based on the provisions of the general parametric theory of systems (GPTS). The logistics analysis of commodity movement on the market is presented and typical scheme of goods movement on a logistic chain is offered. Considering market logistics as an organizational system, the article presents its parametric model in the form of a matrix, the elements of which are logistic entities with their connections. It is proved, that the main basic element of the matrix structure of logistics system of commodity movement is a business entity that participates in the production and promotion of goods on the market. The types of business entities, which operating in the logistics system of the commodity market, are systematized. It is determined that business entities, which are distributed in logistics chains and their links, perform certain logistics functions due to their properties. It has been proved that business entities, which can be included as elements of the matrix market structure, should have the functions of performing logistics services. The content of these services is revealed and analyzed. The use of the corresponding target function in calculating the optimal logistics chains of commodity movement in the market is substantiated. The application of this approach, based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is shown. It is determined that the goal of the proposed target function, by which the value added chain is calculated, is its maximization in the supply chain. Calculations for the target function allow you to determine the optimal route of commodity movement in the market and the relevant logistics entities through which this route passes. Thus, it is proposed to organize (highlight) the most profitable logistics chains of the market, which will significantly reduce the logistics costs of commodity movement, as well as reduce the risks of logistics barriers.

Особливості забезпечення конкурентоспроможності об’єднаних територіальних громад, безумовно, мають свою специфіку стосовно впливу на її формування з богу адміністративних органів держаного управління. З іншого боку, конкурентоспроможність не може розглядатися як окремий показник чи характеристика, оскільки за своєю сутністю вона є динамічною. Якщо проводити аналогію з товарним ринком, то можна стверджувати, що будь-який товар або послуга на певному етапі свого життєвого циклу має певний рівень конкурентоспроможності відносні інших товарів чи послуг, проте з плином часу за незмінних характеристик товару, його конкурентоспроможність втрачається, оскільки на ринку стають доступними нові, більш досконалі аналоги. Таким чином, забезпечення конкурентоспроможності на рівні підприємств потребує постійного вдосконалення вироблюваної продукції з метою покращення її характеристик для забезпечення належного рівня конкурентоспроможності. ОТГ, які мають у своєму розпорядженні певний набір ресурсів та рівень інфраструктури, можуть бути цілком конкурентоспроможними у певний період часу. Однак, якщо територіальні громади не погодяться постійно проводити процес вдосконалення умов свого функціонування, то вони також можуть стикнутися з проблемою невідповідності вимогам, що може вплинути, приміром, на відтік інвесторів. В статті розглянуто сучасні особливості формування стратегії забезпечення підвищення конкурентоспроможності об’єднаних територіальних громад. Розглянуто специфіку формування моделей підвищення конкурентоспроможності, визначено основні чинники, які визначають конкурентну позицію об’єднаних територіальних громад в системі адміністративно-економічного розвитку регіону, до яких відносяться: забезпечення ефективності функціонування органів місцевого самоврядування, ефективна система державного регіонального управління, доступний та якісний людський капітал, інновації, екологія та стимулювання інвестиційної діяльності. На основі аналізу розроблено модель забезпечення підвищення конкурентоспроможності ОТГ. Визначено етапи процесу реалізації стратегії підвищення конкурентоспроможності територіальних громад.