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Abstract Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.

Abstract Background Post thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a burdensome and costly complication of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) that develops in 20–40% of patients within 1–2 years after symptomatic DVT. Affected patients have chronic leg pain and swelling and may develop ulcers. Venous valve disruption from the thrombus itself or thrombus-associated mediators of inflammation is considered to be a key initiating event for the development of venous hypertension that often underlies PTS. As existing treatments for PTS are extremely limited, strategies that focus on preventing the development of PTS in patients with DVT are more likely to be effective and cost-effective in reducing its burden. Elastic compression stockings (ECS) could be helpful in preventing PTS; however, data on their effectiveness are scarce and conflicting. Methods/Design The SOX Trial is a randomized, allocation concealed, double-blind multicenter clinical trial. The objective of the study is to evaluate ECS to prevent PTS. A total of 800 patients with proximal DVT will be randomized to one of 2 treatment groups: ECS or placebo (inactive) stockings worn on the DVT-affected leg daily for 2 years. The primary outcome is the incidence of PTS during follow-up. Secondary outcomes are severity of PTS, venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, death from VTE, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes will be evaluated during 6 clinic visits and 2 telephone follow ups. At baseline, 1 and 6 months, blood samples will be obtained to evaluate the role of inflammatory mediators and genetic markers of thrombophilia in the development of PTS (Bio-SOX substudy). Discussion The SOX Trial will be the largest study and the first with a placebo control to evaluate the effectiveness of ECS to prevent PTS. It is designed to provide definitive data on the effects of ECS on the occurrence and severity of PTS, as well as DVT recurrence, cost-effectiveness and quality of life. This study will also prospectively evaluate the predictive role of biomarkers that are reflective of putative underlying pathophysiological mechanisms in the development of clinical PTS. As such, our results will impact directly on the care of patients with DVT. Trial Registration NCT00143598 and ISRCTN71334751