151. Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle.
- Author
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Elsby, Michael W. L and Shapiro, Matthew D
- Subjects
EMPLOYMENT ,WAGES & labor productivity ,MACROECONOMICS ,ECONOMICS ,LABOR productivity ,UNEMPLOYMENT & economics ,SKILLED labor ,UNSKILLED labor ,INCOME ,ECONOMIC history - Abstract
That the employment rate appears to respond to changes in trend growth is an enduring macroeconomic puzzle. This paper shows that, in the presence of a return to experience, a slowdown in productivity growth raises reservation wages, thereby lowering aggregate employment. The paper develops new evidence that shows this mechanism is important for explaining the growth-employment puzzle. The combined effects of changes in aggregate wage growth and returns to experience account for all the increase from 1968 to 2006 in nonemployment among low-skilled men and for approximately half the increase in nonemployment among all men. (JEL E24, J24, J31) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
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