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Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, backsim31%–35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: backsim86%–91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from −3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) contains charcoal byproducts, termed black carbon (BC). To determine the significance of BC as a sink of atmospheric CO2 and reconcile budgets, the sources and fate of this large, slow-cycling and elusive carbon pool must be constrained. The Amazon River is a significant part of global BC cycling because it exports an order of magnitude more DOC, and thus dissolved BC (DBC), than any other river. We report spatially resolved DBC quantity and radiocarbon (Δ14C) measurements, paired with molecular-level characterization of dissolved organic matter from the Amazon River and tributaries during low discharge. The proportion of BC-like polycyclic aromatic structures decreases downstream, but marked spatial variability in abundance and Δ14C values of DBC molecular markers imply dynamic sources and cycling in a manner that is incongruent with bulk DOC. We estimate a flux from the Amazon River of 1.9–2.7 Tg DBC yr−1 that is composed of predominately young DBC, suggesting that loss processes of modern DBC are important., Nature Communications, 10, ISSN:2041-1723

Mountain areas provide disproportionally high runoff in many parts of the world, but their importance for water resources and food production has not been clarified from the viewpoint of the lowland areas downstream. Here we quantify the extent to which lowland inhabitants potentially depend on runoff contributions from mountain areas (39% of the global land mass). We show that ~1.5 billion people (24% of the world’s lowland population) are projected to depend critically on runoff contributions from mountains by the mid-twenty-first century under a ‘middle of the road’ scenario, compared with ~0.2 billion (7%) in the 1960s. This striking rise is mainly due to increased local water consumption in the lowlands, whereas changes in mountain and lowland runoff play only a minor role. We further show that one-third of the global lowland area equipped for irrigation is currently located in regions that both depend heavily on runoff contributions from mountains and make unsustainable use of local blue water resources, a figure that is likely to rise to well over 50% in the coming decades. Our findings imply that mountain areas should receive particular attention in water resources management and underscore the protection they deserve in efforts towards sustainable development. Runoff from mountain water sources is critical to some lowland populations. In this Article, these populations are projected to increase from 0.2 billion people in the 1960s to 1.5 billion by mid-century.

Application of hydrological models to ungauged basins is both a highly relevant and challenging task. While research has brought forth various approaches for inferring or transferring tuneable model parameters from gauged and calibrated catchments, it has also been recently shown that a few short measurements can support predictions in an ungauged basin by constraining the acceptable range of the parameters. For the present study, we examined a combination of both parameter regionalisation and short-term runoff measurements. More precisely, we attempted to select complete parameter sets from a range of calibrated catchments using a few measurements. Then, we tested a number of ways to combine the hydrographs simulated with these parameter sets with those simulated using a well-established Nearest Neighbour scheme, in order to make use of both actually measured runoff data as well as hydrological similarity. The experimental basis for our study were 49 representative catchments in Switzerland which have been successfully calibrated and regionalised with the hydrological modelling system PREVAH. Results show that even a few short measurements during mean runoff conditions can lead to models that are more efficient than those achieved with hydrological similarity alone. The possible improvement depends largely on the regime type of the catchment examined. Also, the most suitable season to perform measurements varies: In catchments dominated by snow melt or ice melt or both, considerable improvements can be achieved with as few as two measurements during spring or summer, whereas rainfall-dominated catchments show only moderate improvements with no particular season being more suitable for the measurements. Our findings highlight the value of field measurements in mountain areas. The information gained in these regions from short measurements may act as a counterbalance to the sparse operational observation networks.

Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered by climate change. How well do we understand these potential changes today, and what are implications for water resources management, climate change adaptation, and evolving water policy? To answer above questions, we have examined 11 case study regions with the goal of providing a global overview, identifying research gaps and formulating recommendations for research, management and policy. After setting the scene regarding water stress, water management capacity and scientific capacity in our case study regions, we examine the state of knowledge in water resources from a highland-lowland viewpoint, focusing on mountain areas on the one hand and the adjacent lowland areas on the other hand. Based on this review, research priorities are identified, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil parameters, evapotranspiration and sublimation, groundwater as well as enhanced warming and feedback mechanisms. In addition, the importance of environmental monitoring at high altitudes is highlighted. We then make recommendations how advancements in the management of mountain water resources under climate change could be achieved in the fields of research, water resources management and policy as well as through better interaction between these fields. We conclude that effective management of mountain water resources urgently requires more detailed regional studies and more reliable scenario projections, and that research on mountain water resources must become more integrative by linking relevant disciplines. In addition, the knowledge exchange between managers and researchers must be improved and oriented towards long-term continuous interaction.

Mountains and highlands are typically areas that provide considerable quantities of water, the latter being an important resource for the lowlands. These run-off quantities remain discernible in the superior-scale river systems and significantly contribute to the global water resources. Therefore, mountain regions ought to be given specific consideration with regard to management endeavours. Although well known in principle, details of water resources originating from mountains remain under discussion. A new approach has been introduced, which depicts the water balance of Switzerland in a spatially distributed manner, based on catchments of about 150 km2. The main feature of this approach is the areal precipitation, which is calculated using run-off, evaporation and storage change of glaciers, instead of being derived from gauged precipitation values. This methodology was selected because measurement and regionalization of precipitation remain subject to large uncertainties in mountainous areas. Subsequently, the view is widened to the European Alps, which, as compared with the surrounding lowlands, contribute considerably higher annual discharge, especially in the summer months. Finally, the focus is put on the hydrological significance of mountains in general. In dry regions, mountains, in particular, are indispensable contributors to the water resources downstream. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mountains and highlands are often called the world’s natural “water towers” because they provide essential freshwater for populations both upstream and downstream. Despite this, knowledge about the significance of mountains in the hydrological cycle is still uncertain. The present article takes a regional approach, using case studies to assess and compare the hydrological significance of mountains. Methods are developed based on the experience gained in the Rhine River catchment and then applied to 19 additional selected catchments worldwide, with the river Euphrates serving as an example. The resulting comparative assessment serves as an elaboration on the hydrological significance of the world’s mountains and underscores their function as sources of large, reliable, and compensatory discharge. The mean annual mountain contribution to total discharge in the river basins included in our case studies is disproportionately high, at 63%, with a ean relative mountain area of only 32%. Furthermore, distinctions can be made according to climatic regions, clearly highlighting the vital role of mountain runoff in lowlands in arid and semiarid areas. This means taking mountains and highlands more carefully into account in terms of monitoring and scientific research and especially in terms of watershed management and conflict management.