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Background Dengue causes 50 million infections per year, posing a large disease and economic burden in tropical and subtropical regions. Only a proportion of dengue cases require hospitalization, and predictive tools to triage dengue patients at greater risk of complications may optimize usage of limited healthcare resources. For severe dengue (SD), proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines, predictive tools are lacking. Methods We undertook a retrospective study of adult dengue patients in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, from 2006 to 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at presentation from dengue polymerase chain reaction-positive and serology-positive patients were used to predict the development of SD after hospitalization using generalized linear models (GLMs). Principal findings Predictive tools compatible with well-resourced and resource-limited settings – not requiring laboratory measurements – performed acceptably with optimism-corrected specificities of 29% and 27% respectively for 90% sensitivity. Higher risk of severe dengue (SD) was associated with female gender, lower than normal hematocrit level, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever on admission. Lower risk of SD was associated with more years of age (in a cohort with an interquartile range of 27–47 years of age), leucopenia and fever duration on admission. Among the warning signs proposed by WHO 2009, we found support for abdominal pain or tenderness and vomiting as predictors of combined forms of SD. Conclusions The application of these predictive tools in the clinical setting may reduce unnecessary admissions by 19% allowing the allocation of scarce public health resources to patients according to the severity of outcomes., Author Summary Dengue is a mosquito-borne tropical disease that poses a large economic and health burden to 40% of the world's population. Some dengue patients can evolve into a more severe form of the illness (severe dengue) and ideally should be hospitalized when this occurs. However, while only a small proportion of patients have severe dengue, many other patients are unnecessarily hospitalized. Being able to identify those patients at the highest risk of developing severe dengue can be very useful to reduce costs to hospitals and patients. In this study, we develop predictive tools to identify those patients that should be hospitalized. We find that some common features such as age, gender, fever duration, fever on admission, vomiting or abdominal distension can be good predictors of severe dengue. This is important because these features are easy to identify even in resource-limited settings where laboratory tests are not widely available.

Background Limited information is available about seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in tropical communities. Objectives Virus subtype-specific VE was determined for all military service personnel in the recruit camp and three other non-recruit camp in Singapore's Armed Forces from 1 June 2009 to 30 June 2012. Methods Consenting servicemen underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. The test positive case and test negative control design was used to estimate the VE. To estimate the overall effect of the programme on new recruits, we used an ecological time series approach. Results A total of 7016 consultations were collected. The crude estimates for the VE of the triavalent vaccine against both influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B were 84% (95% CI 78–88%, 79–86%, respectively). Vaccine efficacy against influenza A(H3N2) was markedly lower (VE 33%, 95% CI −4% to 57%). An estimated 70% (RR = 0·30; 95% CI 0·11–0·84), 39% (RR = 0·61;0·25–1·43) and 75% (RR = 0·25; 95% CI 0·11–0·50) reduction in the risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B infections, respectively, in the recruit camp during the post-vaccination period compared with during the pre-vaccination period was observed. Conclusions Overall, the blanket influenza vaccine programme in Singapore's Armed Forces has had a moderate to high degree of protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, but not against influenza A(H3N2). Blanket influenza vaccination is recommended for all military personnel.

Background The rate of decline of antibody titers to influenza following infection can affect results of serological surveys, and may explain re-infection and recurrent epidemics by the same strain. Methods We followed up a cohort who seroconverted on hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titers (≥4-fold increase) to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during a seroincidence study in 2009. Along with the pre-epidemic sample, and the sample from 2009 with the highest HI titer between August and October 2009 (A), two additional blood samples obtained in April 2010 and September 2010 (B and C) were assayed for antibodies to A(H1N1)pdm09 by both HI and virus microneutralization (MN) assays. We analyzed pair-wise mean-fold change in titers and the proportion with HI titers ≥ 40 and MN ≥ 160 (which correlated with a HI titer of 40 in our assays) at the 3 time-points following seroconversion. Results A total of 67 participants contributed 3 samples each. From the highest HI titer in 2009 to the last sample in 2010, 2 participants showed increase in titers (by HI and MN), while 63 (94%) and 49 (73%) had reduction in HI and MN titers, respectively. Titers by both assays decreased significantly; while 70.8% and 72.3% of subjects had titers of ≥ 40 and ≥ 160 by HI and MN in 2009, these percentages decreased to 13.9% and 36.9% by September 2010. In 6 participants aged 55 years and older, the decrease was significantly greater than in those aged below 55, so that none of the elderly had HI titers ≥ 40 nor MN titers ≥ 160 by the final sample. Due to this decline in titers, only 23 (35%) of the 65 participants who seroconverted on HI in sample A were found to seroconvert between the pre-epidemic sample and sample C, compared to 53 (90%) of the 59 who seroconverted on MN on Sample A. Conclusions We observed marked reduction in titers 1 year after seroconversion by HI, and to a lesser extent by MN. Our findings have implications for re-infections, recurrent epidemics, vaccination strategies, and for cohort studies measuring infection rates by seroconversion. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-414) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison.

Background Schools are important foci of influenza transmission and potential targets for surveillance and interventions. We compared several school-based influenza monitoring systems with clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance, and assessed the variation in illness rates between and within schools. Methods During the initial wave of pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) infections from June to Sept 2009 in Singapore, we collected data on nation-wide laboratory confirmed cases (Sch-LCC) and daily temperature monitoring (Sch-DTM), and teacher-led febrile respiratory illness reporting in 6 sentinel schools (Sch-FRI). Comparisons were made against age-stratified clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) data from 23 primary care clinics (GP-ILI) and proportions of ILI testing positive for pdmH1N1 (Lab-ILI) by computing the fraction of cumulative incidence occurring by epidemiological week 30 (when GP-ILI incidence peaked); and cumulative incidence rates between school-based indicators and sero-epidemiological pdmH1N1 incidence (estimated from changes in prevalence of A/California/7/2009 H1N1 hemagglutination inhibition titers ≥ 40 between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic sera). Variation in Sch-FRI rates in the 6 schools was also investigated through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results By week 30, for primary and secondary school children respectively, 63% and 79% of incidence for Sch-LCC had occurred, compared with 50% and 52% for GP-ILI data, and 48% and 53% for Sch-FRI. There were 1,187 notified cases and 7,588 episodes in the Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM systems; given school enrollment of 485,723 children, this represented 0.24 cases and 1.6 episodes per 100 children respectively. Mean Sch-FRI rate was 28.8 per 100 children (95% CI: 27.7 to 29.9) in the 6 schools. We estimate from serology that 41.8% (95% CI: 30.2% to 55.9%) of primary and 43.2% (95% CI: 28.2% to 60.8%) of secondary school-aged children were infected. Sch-FRI rates were similar across the 6 schools (23 to 34 episodes per 100 children), but there was widespread variation by classrooms; in the hierarchical model, omitting age and school effects was inconsequential but neglecting classroom level effects led to highly significant reductions in goodness of fit. Conclusions Epidemic curves from Sch-FRI were comparable to GP-ILI data, and Sch-FRI detected substantially more infections than Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM. Variability in classroom attack rates suggests localized class-room transmission.

Norovirus gastrointestinal disease (GID) outbreaks occur frequently in closed settings, with high attack rates. On October 16, 2008, a norovirus GID outbreak occurred at a Singapore military camp. This study describes the epidemiological investigations conducted to determine the cause of outbreak and the efficacy of the public health measures implemented.Epidemiologic investigations included a case-control study of exposure to different food items and an environmental exposure survey. Stool samplings of patients and food handlers for common pathogens, and microbiologic testing of food and water samples were performed. Inspection of dining facilities and health screening of all food-handlers were also conducted.A total of 156 GID cases were reported on October 15-31, 2008. 24 (15.4%) personnel were positive for norovirus. The predominant symptoms were diarrhoea (76.3%) and abdominal pain (69.2%). There was no clinical correlation between any food item and the affected personnel. Testing of food and water samples, dining facility inspections and health screening of food handlers showed satisfactory results. The environmental exposure survey indicated possible transmission due to environmental contamination by vomitus in common areas. Comprehensive environmental decontamination was performed with hypochlorite solution, and personal hygiene measures were enforced. The outbreak lasted 17 days, with a decline in cases post intervention.Timely notification and prompt response can curtail disease transmission. Swift implementation of public health measures, such as emphasis on personal hygiene, isolation of affected cases and comprehensive disinfection of the environment, effectively stopped norovirus transmission and may be adapted for future GID outbreaks.

Background Influenza infections may result in different clinical presentations. This study aims to determine the clinical differences between circulating influenza strains in a young healthy adult population in the tropics. Methods A febrile respiratory illness (FRI) (fever ≥ 37.5°C with cough and/or sore throat) surveillance program was started in 4 large military camps in Singapore on May 2009. Personnel with FRI who visited the camp clinics from 11 May 2009 to 25 June 2010 were recruited. Nasal washes and interviewer-administered questionnaires on demographic information and clinical features were obtained from consenting participants. All personnel who tested positive for influenza were included in the study. Overall symptom load was quantified by counting the symptoms or signs, and differences between strains evaluated using linear models. Results There were 434 (52.9%) pandemic H1N1-2009, 58 (7.1%) seasonal H3N2, 269 (32.8%) influenza B, and 10 (1.2%) seasonal H1N1 cases. Few seasonal influenza A (H1N1) infections were detected and were therefore excluded from analyses, together with undetermined influenza subtypes (44 (1.5%)), or more than 1 co-infecting subtype (6 (0.2%)). Pandemic H1N1-2009 cases had significantly fewer symptoms or signs (mean 7.2, 95%CI 6.9-7.4, difference 1.6, 95%CI 1.2-2.0, p < 0.001) than the other two subtypes (mean 8.7, 95%CI 8.5-9.0). There were no statistical differences between H3N2 and influenza B (p = 0.58). Those with nasal congestion, rash, eye symptoms, injected pharynx or fever were more likely to have H3N2; and those with sore throat, fever, injected pharynx or rhinorrhoea were more likely to have influenza B than H1N1-2009. Conclusions Influenza cases have different clinical presentations in the young adult population. Pandemic H1N1 influenza cases had fewer and milder clinical symptoms than seasonal influenza. As we only included febrile cases and had no information on the proportion of afebrile infections, further research is needed to confirm whether the relatively milder presentation of pandemic versus seasonal influenza infections applies to all infections or only febrile illnesses.

Background Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage. A number of DHF risk factors had been suggested. However, these risk factors may not be generalized to all populations and epidemics for screening and clinical management of patients at risk of developing DHF. This study explored demographic and comorbidity risk factors for DHF in adult dengue epidemics in Singapore in year 2006 (predominantly serotype 1) and in year 2007–2008 (predominantly serotype 2). Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted with 149 DHF and 326 dengue fever (DF) patients from year 2006, and 669 DHF and 1,141 DF patients from year 2007–2008. Demographic and reported comorbidity data were collected from patients previously. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between DHF and demographic and co-morbidities for year 2006 and year 2007–2008, respectively. Results Only Chinese (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–3.56) was independently associated with DHF in year 2006. In contrast, age groups of 30–39 years (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), 40–49 years (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), female (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI:1.28–1.94), Chinese (AOR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.24–2.24), diabetes (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI:1.06–2.97), and diabetes with hypertension (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI:1.18–3.96) were independently associated with DHF in year 2007–2008. Hypertension was proposed to have effect modification on the risk of DHF outcome in dengue patients with diabetes. Chinese who had diabetes with hypertension had 2.1 (95% CI:1.07–4.12) times higher risk of DHF compared with Chinese who had no diabetes and no hypertension. Conclusions Adult dengue patients in Singapore who were 30–49 years, Chinese, female, had diabetes or diabetes with hypertension were at greater risk of developing DHF during epidemic of predominantly serotype 2. These risk factors can be used to guide triaging of patients who require closer clinical monitoring and early hospitalization in Singapore, when confirmed in more studies., Author Summary Dengue is a major vector borne disease in the tropical and subtropical regions. An estimated 50 million infections occur per annum in over 100 countries. A severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage, known as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is estimated to occur in 1–5% of hospitalized cases. It can be fatal if unrecognized and not treated in a timely manner. Previous studies had found a number of risk factors for DHF. However, screening and clinical management strategies based on these risk factors may not be applicable to all populations and epidemics of different serotypes. In this study, we found significant association between DHF and diabetes mellitus and diabetes mellitus with hypertension during the epidemic of predominantly serotype 2 (year 2007 and 2008), but not during the epidemic of predominantly serotype 1 (year 2006). Diabetes mellitus and hypertension are prevalent in Singapore and most parts of South-East Asia, where dengue is endemic. Therefore, it is important to address the risk effect of these co-morbidities on the development of DHF so as to reduce morbidity and mortality. Our findings may have impact on screening and clinical management of dengue patients, when confirmed in more studies.

Background Dengue illness causes 50–100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings. Methods and Findings We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%–59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9–14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively. Conclusions Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially., Author Summary Dengue illness is a tropical disease transmitted by mosquitoes that threatens more than one third of the worldwide population. Dengue has important economic consequences because of the burden to hospitals, work absenteeism and risk of death of symptomatic cases. Governments attempt to reduce the disease burden using costly mosquito control strategies such as habitat reduction and spraying insecticide. Despite such efforts, the number of cases remains high. Dengue vaccines are expected to be available in the near future and there is an urgent need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness, i.e. whether their cost will be justified by the reduction in disease burden they bring. For such an evaluation, we estimated the economic impacts of dengue in Singapore and the expected vaccine costs for different prices. In this way we estimated price thresholds for which vaccination is not cost-effective. This research provides useful estimates that will contribute to informed decisions regarding the adoption of dengue vaccination programs.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about pandemic H1N1-2009 influenza vaccine effectiveness in tropical communities. We studied the effectiveness of a pandemic H1N1 vaccination program in reducing influenza cases in Singapore. METHODS: A surveillance study was conducted among military personnel presenting with febrile respiratory illness from mid-2009 to mid-2010. Consenting individuals underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. A vaccination program (inactivated monovalent Panvax H1N1-2009 vaccine) was carried out among recruits. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to quantify relative risks in the pre- and post-vaccination periods. An autoregressive generalised linear model (GLM) was developed to minimise confounding. RESULTS: Of 2858 participants, 437 (15.3%), 60 (2.1%), and 273 (9.6%) had pandemic H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B. The ratio of relative risks for pandemic H1N1 infection before and after vaccination for the recruit camp relative to other camps was 0.14 (0.016,0.49); for H3N2, 0.44 (0.035,1.8); and for influenza B, 18 (0.77,89). Using the GLM for the recruit camp, post-vaccination weekly cases decreased by 54% (37%,67%, p

Estimation of influenza infection rates is important for determination of the extent of epidemic spread and for calculation of severity indicators. The authors compared estimated infection rates from paired and cross-sectional serologic surveys, rates of influenza like illness (ILI) obtained from sentinel general practitioners (GPs), and ILI samples that tested positive for influenza using data from similar periods collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Singapore. The authors performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of estimates to input parameter uncertainties, and they determined sample sizes required for differing levels of precision. Estimates from paired seroconversion were 17% (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 14, 20), higher than those from cross-sectional serology (12%, 95% BCI: 9, 17). Adjusted ILI estimates were 15% (95% BCI: 10, 25), and estimates computed from ILI and laboratory data were 12% (95% BCI: 8, 18). Serologic estimates were least sensitive to the risk of input parameter misspecification. ILI-based estimates were more sensitive to parameter misspecification, though this was lessened by incorporation of laboratory data. Obtaining a 5-percentage-point spread for the 95% confidence interval in infection rates would require more than 1,000 participants per serologic study, a sentinel network of 90 GPs, or 50 GPs when combined with laboratory samples. The various types of estimates will provide comparable findings if accurate input parameters can be obtained.

Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic–economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

Background Dengue re-emerges in Singapore despite decades of effective vector control; the infection predominantly afflicts adults. Severe dengue not fulfilling dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) criteria according to World Health Organization (WHO) 1997 guideline was increasingly reported. A new WHO 2009 guideline emphasized warning signs and a wider range of severe dengue manifestations. We aim to evaluate the utility of these two guidelines in confirmed adult dengue fatalities. Methods We conducted a multi-center retrospective chart review of all confirmed adult dengue deaths in Singapore from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008. Results Of 28 adult dengue deaths, median age was 59 years. Male gender comprised 67.9% and co-morbidities existed in 75%. From illness onset, patients presented for admission at a median of 4 days and death occurred at a median of 12 days. Intensive care admission was required in 71.4%. Probable dengue was diagnosed in 32.1% by WHO 1997 criteria and 78.6% by WHO 2009. The earliest warning sign was persistent vomiting at a median of 1.5 days. Hematocrit change ≥20% concurrent with platelet count Conclusions In our adult fatal dengue cohort, WHO 2009 criteria had higher sensitivity in diagnosing probable dengue and severe dengue compared with WHO 1997. As warning signs, persistent vomiting occurred early and hematocrit change ≥20% concurrent with platelet count

BackgroundWe describe the serological response following H1N1-2009 influenza A infections confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).Methodology and principal findingsThe study included patients admitted to hospital, subjects of a seroepidemiologic cohort study, and participants identified from outbreak studies in Singapore. Baseline (first available blood sample) and follow-up blood samples were analyzed for antibody titers to H1N1-2009 and recently circulating seasonal influenza A virus strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus micro-neutralization (VM) assays. 267 samples from 118 cases of H1N1-2009 were analyzed. Geometric mean titers by HI peaked at 123 (95% confidence interval, CI 43-356) between days 30 to 39. The chance of observing seroconversion (four-fold or greater increase of antibodies) was maximized when restricting analysis to 45 participants with baseline sera collected within 5 days of onset and follow-up sera collected 15 or more days after onset; for these participants, 82% and 89% seroconverted to A/California/7/2009 H1N1 by HI and VM respectively. A four-fold or greater increase in cross-reactive antibody titers to seasonal A/Brisbane/59/2007 H1N1, A/Brisbane/10/2007 H3N2 and A/Wisconsin/15/2009 H3N2 occurred in 20%, 18% and 16% of participants respectively.Conclusions and significanceAppropriately timed paired serology detects 80-90% RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009; Antibodies from infection with H1N1-2009 cross-reacted with seasonal influenza viruses.

Background Anti-viral prophylaxis is used to prevent the transmission of influenza. We studied serological confirmation of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) infections during oseltamivir prophylaxis and after cessation of prophylaxis. Methods Between 22 Jun and 16 Jul 09, we performed a cohort study in 3 outbreaks in the Singapore military where post-exposure oseltamivir ring chemoprophylaxis (75 mg daily for 10 days) was administered. The entire cohort was screened by RT-PCR (with HA gene primers) using nasopharyngeal swabs three times a week. Three blood samples were taken for haemagglutination inhibition testing - at the start of outbreak, 2 weeks after completion of 10 day oseltamivir prophylaxis, and 3 weeks after the pandemic's peak in Singapore. Questionnaires were also administered to collect clinical symptoms. Results 237 personnel were included for analysis. The overall infection rate of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) during the three outbreaks was 11.4% (27/237). This included 11 index cases and 16 personnel (7.1%) who developed four-fold or higher rise in antibody titres during oseltamivir prophylaxis. Of these 16 personnel, 8 (3.5%) were symptomatic while the remaining 8 personnel (3.5%) were asymptomatic and tested negative on PCR. Post-cessation of prophylaxis, an additional 23 (12.1%) seroconverted. There was no significant difference in mean fold-rise in GMT between those who seroconverted during and post-prophylaxis (11.3 vs 11.7, p = 0.888). No allergic, neuropsychiatric or other severe side-effects were noted. Conclusions Post-exposure oseltamivir prophylaxis reduced the rate of infection during outbreaks, and did not substantially increase subsequent infection rates upon cessation. Asymptomatic infections occur during prophylaxis, which may confer protection against future infection. Post-exposure prophylaxis is effective as a measure in mitigating pandemic influenza outbreaks.

Background Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing behavioral changes. We aim to determine the differences in knowledge, attitudes and practices in various different cohorts and explore the pertinent factors that influenced behavior in tropical Singapore. Methods We performed a cross-sectional knowledge, attitudes and practices survey in the Singapore military from mid-August to early-October 2009, among 3054 personnel in four exposure groups - laboratory-confirmed H1N1-2009 cases, close contacts of cases, healthcare workers, and general personnel. Results 1063 (34.8%) participants responded. The mean age was 21.4 (SE 0.2) years old. Close contacts had the highest knowledge score (71.7%, p = 0.004) while cases had the highest practice scores (58.8%, p < 0.001). There was a strong correlation between knowledge and practice scores (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and knowledge and attitudes scores (r = 0.21, p < 0.01). The significant predictors of higher practice scores were higher knowledge scores (p < 0.001), Malay ethnicity (p < 0.001), exposure group (p < 0.05) and lower education level (p < 0.05). The significant predictors for higher attitudes scores were Malay ethnicity (p = 0.014) and higher knowledge scores (p < 0.001). The significant predictor for higher knowledge score was being a contact (p = 0.007). Conclusion Knowledge is a significant influence on attitudes and practices in a pandemic, and personal experience influences practice behaviors. Efforts should be targeted at educating the general population to improve practices in the current pandemic, as well as for future epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; "ethnicity"; residential status; body temperature (degrees C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8 degrees C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.

BACKGROUND: From June 22 through June 25, 2009, four outbreaks of infection with the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus occurred in Singapore military camps. We report the efficacy of ring chemoprophylaxis (geographically targeted containment by means of prophylaxis) with oseltamivir to control outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed environments. METHODS: All personnel with suspected infection were tested and clinically isolated if infection was confirmed. In addition, we administered postexposure ring chemoprophylaxis with oseltamivir and segregated the affected military units to contain the spread of the virus. All personnel were screened three times weekly both for virologic infection, by means of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay with sequencing, and for clinical symptoms, by means of questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 1175 personnel were at risk across the four sites, with 1100 receiving oseltamivir prophylaxis. A total of 75 personnel (6.4%) were infected before the intervention, and 7 (0.6%) after the intervention. There was a significant reduction in the overall reproductive number (the number of new cases attributable to the index case), from 1.91 (95% credible interval, 1.50 to 2.36) before the intervention to 0.11 (95% credible interval, 0.05 to 0.20) after the intervention. Three of the four outbreaks showed a significant reduction in the rate of infection after the intervention. Molecular analysis revealed that all four outbreaks were derived from the New York lineage of the 2009 H1N1 virus and that cases within each outbreak were due to transmission rather than unrelated episodes of infection. Of the 816 personnel treated with oseltamivir who were surveyed, 63 (7.7%) reported mild, nonrespiratory side effects of the drug, with no severe adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Oseltamivir ring chemoprophylaxis, together with prompt identification and isolation of infected personnel, was effective in reducing the impact of outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed settings.

Background Individual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Methods We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. Results Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza. Conclusion Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction). Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

Background Military personnel are highly susceptible to febrile respiratory illnesses (FRI), likely due to crowding, stress and other risk factors present in the military environment. Objective Our objective was to investigate the viral etiological agents responsible for FRI among military recruits training in a tropical climate in Singapore. Study design From March 2006 through April 2007, a total of 1354 oropharyngeal (throat) swabs were collected from military recruits who reported sick with an oral temperature of ≥38 °C and a cough and/or sore throat. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to assay for the presence of influenza A and B viruses and adenoviruses (H-AdV), and conventional PCR used for the remaining respiratory viruses in all specimens. Results Influenza A virus was the dominant infection with a laboratory-confirmed incidence of 24% (326/1354) and a predominance of the H3N2 subtype. The temporal pattern for influenza A virus infections coincided with the nation-wide pattern in the civilian community. Detection rates of 12% (159/1354) and 2.7% (5/1354) were obtained for influenza B virus and other respiratory viruses, respectively. Conclusions The laboratory findings identified influenza A virus as the primary causative viral agent for FRI in the Singapore military, in strong contrast to findings from temperate countries and countries where recruits are often vaccinated for influenza. Our results suggest that influenza vaccination should be considered as a requirement to reduce the incidence of influenza infections. This is the first report describing respiratory infections in a tropical military setting, in a developed country in Asia.

Thrombocytopenia in dengue infection raises concerns about bleeding risk. Of 256 patients with dengue infection who developed thrombocytopenia (platelet count, < 20 x 10(3) platelets/microL) without prior bleeding, 188 were given platelet transfusion. Subsequent bleeding, platelet increment, and platelet recovery were similar between patients given transfusion and patients not given transfusion. Prophylactic platelet transfusion was ineffective in preventing bleeding in adult patients with dengue infection.

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

ObjectivesIn Singapore, dengue primarily affects adults. This study aimed to determine if older dengue patients in Singapore have greater morbidity and mortality.MethodsAll laboratory diagnosed dengue patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital in 2004 were retrospectively reviewed. Cases were re-classified into dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever based on World Health Organization criteria. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome data of patients aged ≥60 years and

Indonesia has had the most human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) and one of the highest case-fatality rates worldwide. We described the factors associated with H5N1 case-fatality in Indonesia.Between June, 2005, and February, 2008, there were 127 confirmed H5N1 infections. Investigation teams were deployed to investigate and manage each confirmed case; they obtained epidemiological and clinical data from case-investigation reports when possible and through interviews with patients, family members, and key individuals.Of the 127 patients with confirmed H5N1 infections, 103 (81%) died. Median time to hospitalisation was 6 days (range 1-16). Of the 122 hospitalised patients for whom data were available, 121 (99%) had fever, 107 (88%) cough, and 103 (84%) dyspnoea on reaching hospital. However, for the first 2 days after onset, most had non-specific symptoms; only 31 had both fever and cough, and nine had fever and dyspnoea. Median time from onset to oseltamivir treatment was 7 days (range 0-21 days); treatment started within 2 days for one patient who survived, four (36.4%) of 11 receiving treatment within 2-4 days survived, six (37.5%) of 16 receiving treatment within 5-6 days survived, and ten (18.5%) of 44 receiving treatment at 7 days or later survived (p=0.03). Initiation of treatment within 2 days was associated with significantly lower mortality than was initiation at 5-6 days or later than 7 days (p0.0001). Mortality was lower in clustered than unclustered cases (odds ratio 33.3, 95% CI 3.13-273). Treatment started at a median of 5 days (range 0-13 days) from onset in secondary cases in clusters compared with 8 days (range 4-16) for primary cases (p=0.04).Development of better diagnostic methods and improved case management might improve identification of patients with H5N1 influenza, which could decrease mortality by allowing for earlier treatment with oseltamivir.

OBJECTIVE: Because HIV rapid tests are considered for self-testing, this study aims to determine the user acceptability and feasibility of self-testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed on 350 systematically sampled participants across 2 Singapore HIV testing centers using the Abbott Determine HIV 1/2 blood sample rapid test (Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL). Participants were surveyed on knowledge of and attitudes toward rapid testing. To determine interrater agreement between self-testing and trained personnel testing, participants performed self-testing with visual instructions, followed by trained personnel testing. Ability to identify test outcomes was determined through interpretation of sample test results. RESULTS: Eighty-nine percent of participants preferred testing in private, but most indicated that confidential counseling by trained counselors was necessary. Almost 90% found the kit easy to use and instructions easy to understand. Nevertheless, 85% failed to perform all steps correctly, especially blood sampling, and 56% had invalid results because of incorrect test performance. Interrater agreement between results from self-testing and trained personnel testing had a kappa value of 0.28. Twelve percent could not correctly determine results using sample tests, including 2% and 7% who read positive and negative samples, respectively, incorrectly. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion could not perform self-testing or identify outcomes. Self-testing with the Determine HIV 1/2 kit in Singapore should be deferred.

Introduction:In the aftermath of the Earthquake and Tsunami in Southeast Asia, many relief organizations sent medical aid to affected areas.Objective:The aim of this paper is to examine the mix of healthcare workers resulting from an influx of aid to Meulaboh, Indonesia, and how they met local healthcare needs.Methods:Data were collected from the registration center for relief organizations in Meulaboh and daily hospital meetings on healthcare needs and available workers.Results:Prior to the Tsunami, there were 14 doctors and 120 nurses in the hospital. By the third week after the Tsunami, there were 21 surgeons performing 10 surgeries daily, and >20 non-surgical doctors in the 90-bed hospital. There were Conclusion:An initial disaster-coordinating agency, formed by the United Nations (United Nations) in conjunction with affected countries, should link actively with relief organizations. This will optimize help in meeting local needs, and direct relief to where it is needed most.

BACKGROUND: The United States FDA approved an over-the-counter HIV self-test, to facilitate increased HIV testing and earlier linkage to care. We assessed the accuracy of self-testing by untrained participants compared to healthcare worker (HCW) testing, participants' ability to interpret sample results and user-acceptability of self-tests in Singapore. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional study, involving 200 known HIV-positive patients and 794 unknown HIV status at-risk participants was conducted. Participants (all without prior self-test experience) performed self-testing guided solely by visual instructions, followed by HCW testing, both using the OraQuick ADVANCE Rapid HIV 1/2 Antibody Test, with both results interpreted by the HCW. To assess ability to interpret results, participants were provided 3 sample results (positive, negative, and invalid) to interpret. Of 192 participants who tested positive on HCW testing, self-testing was positive in 186 (96.9%), negative in 5 (2.6%), and invalid in 1 (0.5%). Of 794 participants who tested negative on HCW testing, self-testing was negative in 791 (99.6%), positive in 1 (0.1%), and invalid in 2 (0.3%). Excluding invalid tests, self-testing had sensitivity of 97.4% (95% CI 95.1% to 99.7%) and specificity of 99.9% (95% CI: 99.6% to 100%). When interpreting results, 96%, 93.1% and 95.2% correctly read the positive, negative and invalid respectively. There were no significant demographic predictors for false negative self-testing or wrongly interpreting positive or invalid sample results as negative. Eighty-seven percent would purchase the kit over-the-counter; 89% preferred to take HIV tests in private. 72.5% and 74.9% felt the need for pre- and post-test counseling respectively. Only 28% would pay at least USD15 for the test. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Self-testing was associated with high specificity, and a small but significant number of false negatives. Incorrectly identifying model results as invalid was a major reason for incorrect result interpretation. Survey responses were supportive of making self-testing available.

Background Elevation of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is prominent in acute dengue illness. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2009 dengue guidelines defined AST or ALT≥1000 units/liter (U/L) as a criterion for severe dengue. We aimed to assess the clinical relevance and discriminatory value of AST or ALT for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and severe dengue. Methodology/Principal Findings We retrospectively studied and classified polymerase chain reaction positive dengue patients from 2006 to 2008 treated at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore according to WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria for dengue severity. Of 690 dengue patients, 31% had DHF and 24% severe dengue. Elevated AST and ALT occurred in 86% and 46%, respectively. Seven had AST or ALT≥1000 U/L. None had acute liver failure but one patient died. Median AST and ALT values were significantly higher with increasing dengue severity by both WHO 1997 and 2009 criteria. However, they were poorly discriminatory between non-severe and severe dengue (e.g., AST area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve = 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.67) and between dengue fever (DF) and DHF (AST area under the ROC curve = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.52–0.61). There was significant overlap in AST and ALT values among patients with dengue with or without warning signs and severe dengue, and between those with DF and DHF. Conclusions Although aminotransferase levels increased in conjunction with dengue severity, AST or ALT values did not discriminate between DF and DHF or non-severe and severe dengue., Author Summary Dengue is a global public health problem, as the incidence of the disease has reached hyperendemic proportions in recent decades. Infection with dengue can cause acute, febrile illness or severe disease, which can lead to plasma leakage, bleeding, and organ impairment. One of the most prominent clinical characteristics of dengue patients is increased aspartate and alanine aminotransferase liver enzyme levels. The significance of this is uncertain, as it is transient in the majority of cases, and most patients recover uneventfully without liver damage. In this study, we characterized this phenomenon in the context of dengue severity and found that, although liver enzyme levels increased concurrently with dengue severity, they could not sufficiently discriminate between dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever or between non-severe and severe dengue. Therefore clinicians may need to use other parameters to distinguish dengue severity in patients during early illness.

BACKGROUND: In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic reproduction number R₀ for the early outbreak was 1.59 (0.55 to 2.62) for Mexico City during weeks 5-9, and 1.25 (0.76, 1.74) for all of Mexico during weeks 5-14. CONCLUSIONS: We established the existence of an early epidemic in Mexico City and in all of Mexico during February/March utilizing the routine influenza surveillance data, although the location of seeding is unknown. Moreover, estimates of R₀ as well as the time of peak incidence (the turning point) for Mexico City and all of Mexico indicate that the early epidemic in Mexico City in February/March had been more transmissible (larger R₀) and peaked earlier than the rest of the country. Our conclusion lends support to the possibility that the virus could have already spread to other continents prior to the identification of the virus and the reporting of lab-confirmed pH1N1 cases in North America in April.

This study analyzes data from 19 countries (from April 2009 to Jan 2010), comprising some 70,000 hospitalized patients with severe H1N1 infection, to reveal risk factors for severe pandemic influenza, which include chronic illness, cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes., Background Since the start of the 2009 influenza A pandemic (H1N1pdm), the World Health Organization and its member states have gathered information to characterize the clinical severity of H1N1pdm infection and to assist policy makers to determine risk groups for targeted control measures. Methods and Findings Data were collected on approximately 70,000 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized H1N1pdm patients, 9,700 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and 2,500 deaths reported between 1 April 2009 and 1 January 2010 from 19 countries or administrative regions—Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Madagascar, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, the United States, and the United Kingdom—to characterize and compare the distribution of risk factors among H1N1pdm patients at three levels of severity: hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The median age of patients increased with severity of disease. The highest per capita risk of hospitalization was among patients, Editors' Summary Background In April 2009, a new strain of influenza A H1N1 was first identified in Mexico and the United States and subsequently spread around the world. In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic alert phase 6, which continued until August 2010. Throughout the pandemic, WHO and member states gathered information to characterize the patterns of risk associated with the new influenza A H1N1 virus infection and to assess the clinical picture. Although risk factors for severe disease following seasonal influenza infection have been well documented in many countries (for example, pregnancy; chronic medical conditions such as pulmonary, cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, neuromuscular, hematologic, and metabolic disorders; some cognitive conditions; and immunodeficiency), risk factors for severe disease following infection early in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic were largely unknown. Why Was This Study Done? Many countries have recently reported data on the association between severe H1N1 influenza and a variety of underlying risk factors, but because these data are presented in different formats, making direct comparisons across countries is difficult, with no clear consensus for some conditions. Therefore, to assess the frequency and distribution of known and new potential risk factors for severe H1N1 infection, this study was conducted to collect data (from 1 April 2009 to 1 January 2010) from surveillance programs of the Ministries of Health or National Public Health Institutes in 19 countries―Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong (special administrative region), Japan, Madagascar, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, the United States, and the United Kingdom. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? As part of routine surveillance, countries were asked to provide risk factor data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 in patients who were admitted to hospital, admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), or had died because of their infection, using a standardized format. The researchers grouped potential risk conditions into four categories: age, chronic medical illnesses, pregnancy (by trimester), and other conditions that were not previously considered as risk conditions for severe influenza outcomes, such as obesity. For each risk factor (except pregnancy), the researchers calculated the percentage of each group of patients using the total number of cases reported in each severity category (hospitalization, admission to ICU, and death). To evaluate the risk associated with pregnancy, the researchers used the ratio of pregnant women to all women of childbearing age (age 15–49 years) at each level of severity to describe the differences between levels. The researchers were able to collect data on approximately 70,000 patients requiring hospitalization, 9,700 patients admitted to the ICU, and 2,500 patients who died from H1N1 infection. The proportion of patients with H1N1 with one or more reported chronic conditions increased with severity—the median was 31.1% of hospitalized patients, 52.3% of patients admitted to the ICU, and 61.8% of patients who died. For all levels of severity, pregnant women in their third trimester consistently accounted for the majority of the total of pregnant women. The proportion of patients with obesity increased with increasing disease severity—median of 6% of hospitalized patients, 11.3% of patients admitted to the ICU, and 12.0% of all deaths from H1N1. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings show that risk factors for severe H1N1 infection are similar to those for seasonal influenza, with some notable differences: a substantial proportion of people with severe and fatal cases of H1N1 had pre-existing chronic illness, which indicates that the presence of chronic illness increases the likelihood of death. Cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes are important risk factors for severe disease that will be especially relevant for countries with high rates of these illnesses. Approximately 2/3 of hospitalized people and 40% of people who died from H1N1 infection did not have any identified pre-existing chronic illness, but this study was not able to comprehensively assess how many of these cases had other risk factors, such as pregnancy, obesity, smoking, and alcohol misuse. Because of large differences between countries, the role of risk factors such as obesity and pregnancy need further study—although there is sufficient evidence to support vaccination and early intervention for pregnant women. Overall, the findings of this study reinforce the need to identify and target high-risk groups for interventions such as immunization, early medical advice, and use of antiviral medications. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001053. WHO provides a Global Alert and Response (GAR) with updates on a number of influenza-related topics The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information on risk factors and H1N1

IntroductionInfluenza infections present with wide-ranging clinical features. We aim to compare the differences in presentation between influenza and non-influenza cases among those with febrile respiratory illness (FRI) to determine predictors of influenza infection.MethodsPersonnel with FRI (defined as fever ≥ 37.5 °C, with cough or sore throat) were recruited from the sentinel surveillance system in the Singapore military. Nasal washes were collected, and tested using the Resplex II and additional PCR assays for etiological determination. Interviewer-administered questionnaires collected information on patient demographics and clinical features. Univariate comparison of the various parameters was conducted, with statistically significant parameters entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. The final multivariate model for influenza versus non-influenza cases was used to build a predictive probability clinical diagnostic model.Results821 out of 2858 subjects recruited from 11 May 2009 to 25 Jun 2010 had influenza, of which 434 (52.9%) had 2009 influenza A (H1N1), 58 (7.1%) seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and 269 (32.8%) influenza B. Influenza-positive cases were significantly more likely to present with running nose, chills and rigors, ocular symptoms and higher temperature, and less likely with sore throat, photophobia, injected pharynx, and nausea/vomiting. Our clinical diagnostic model had a sensitivity of 65% (95% CI: 58%, 72%), specificity of 69% (95% CI: 62%, 75%), and overall accuracy of 68% (95% CI: 64%, 71%), performing significantly better than conventional influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria.ConclusionsUse of a clinical diagnostic model may help predict influenza better than the conventional ILI definition among young adults with FRI.

Context Singapore experienced a single epidemic wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) with epidemic activity starting in late June 2009 and peaking in early August before subsiding within a month. Objective To compare the risk and factors associated with H1N1 seroconversion in different adult cohorts. Design, Setting, and Participants A study with serial serological samples from 4 distinct cohorts: general population (n = 838), military personnel (n = 1213), staff from an acute care hospital (n = 558), and staff as well as residents from long-term care facilities (n = 300) from June 22, 2009, to October 15, 2009. Hemagglutination inhibition results of serum samples taken before, during, and after the epidemic and data from symptom questionnaires are presented. Main Outcome Measures A 4-fold or greater increase in titer between any of the 3 serological samples was defined as evidence of H1N1 seroconversion. Results Baseline titers of 40 or more were observed in 22 members (2.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7%-3.9%) of the community, 114 military personnel (9.4%; 95% CI, 7.9%-11.2%), 37 hospital staff (6.6%; 95% CI, 4.8%-9.0%), and 20 participants from long-term care facilities (6.7%; 95% CI, 4.4%-10.1%). In participants with 1 or more follow-up serum samples, 312 military personnel (29.4%; 95% CI, 26.8%-32.2%) seroconverted compared with 98 community members (13.5%; 95% CI, 11.2%-16.2%), 35 hospital staff (6.5%; 95% CI, 4.7%-8.9%), and only 3 long-term care participants (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.4%-3.5%). Increased frequency of seroconversion was observed for community participants from households in which 1 other member seroconverted (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.32; 95% CI, 1.50-7.33), whereas older age was associated with reduced odds of seroconversion (adjusted OR, 0.77 per 10 years; 95% CI, 0.64-0.93). Higher baseline titers were associated with decreased frequency of seroconversion in community (adjusted OR for every doubling of baseline titer, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.85), military (adjusted OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81), and hospital staff cohorts (adjusted OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.26-0.93). Conclusion Following the June-September 2009 wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1), 13% of the community participants seroconverted, and most of the adult population likely remained susceptible.

Introduction Tropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions. Methods Data on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles. Results The influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988) did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953) had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate. Conclusion Influenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity.

BackgroundFailure to keep outpatient medical appointments results in inefficiencies and costs. The objective of this study is to show the factors in an existing electronic database that affect failed appointments and to develop a predictive probability model to increase the effectiveness of interventions.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted on outpatient clinic attendances at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from 2000 to 2004. 22864 patients were randomly sampled for analysis. The outcome measure was failed outpatient appointments according to each patient's latest appointment.ResultsFailures comprised of 21% of all appointments and 39% when using the patients' latest appointment. Using odds ratios from the mutliple logistic regression analysis, age group (0.75 to 0.84 for groups above 40 years compared to below 20 years), race (1.48 for Malays, 1.61 for Indians compared to Chinese), days from scheduling to appointment (2.38 for more than 21 days compared to less than 7 days), previous failed appointments (1.79 for more than 60% failures and 4.38 for no previous appointments, compared with less than 20% failures), provision of cell phone number (0.10 for providing numbers compared to otherwise) and distance from hospital (1.14 for more than 14 km compared to less than 6 km) were significantly associated with failed appointments. The predicted probability model's diagnostic accuracy to predict failures is more than 80%.ConclusionA few key variables have shown to adequately account for and predict failed appointments using existing electronic databases. These can be used to develop integrative technological solutions in the outpatient clinic.

Background Systematically planning appropriate medical coverage for mass-participation running events is a challenge that has received relatively little attention in the medical literature, despite its potentially severe consequences. In particular, the literature lacks quantitative information on running events that medical planners can utilize for decisions on medical resource allocation and deployment. Methods Using a case-study approach, this study provides a detailed quantitative medical services utilization profile for the Singapore Army Half-Marathon, constructed from participant and casualty data spanning three years and comprising over 80,000 data points. Casualty rates for participants of varying age and sex in different running events were also estimated using a multivariate logistic regression model. Qualitatively, planning processes and practices were described and discussed. Results The quantitative profile yielded three main findings. Firstly, the analysis reveals that the gross Medical Usage Rate had remained fairly stable at between 16.9 and 26.0 casualties per 10,000 participants over the three years. Secondly, comparing injury types, musculoskeletal and soft-tissue injuries were the most commonly-presented injuries. Thirdly, more casualties presented at the race end-point as compared to the along the race routes. The regression analysis showed that, of the four modeled variables, the longer event distance (21 km vs. 10 km) had the largest effect on the likelihood that a participant would become a casualty. Conversely, being of an older age, being male, and running in a non-competitive event were each associated with lower casualty risk. Conclusions The stable and intuitive casualty patterns detailed in this study provide a strong basis for further quantitative research on the medical aspects of running events, as well as for mass-participation sporting events in general. The qualitative aspects of this report may serve as a useful resource to medical planners for running events.

Background Few studies have comprehensively described tropical respiratory disease surveillance in military populations. There is also a lack of studies comparing clinical characteristics of the non-influenza pathogens with influenza and amongst themselves. Methods From May 2009 through October 2012, 7733 consenting cases of febrile respiratory illness (FRI) (temperature [greater than or equal to]37.5degreesC with cough or sorethroat) and controls in the Singapore military had clinical data and nasal washes collected prospectively. Nasal washes underwent multiplex PCR, and the analysis was limited to viral mono-infections. Results 49% of cases tested positive for at least one virus, of whom 10% had multiple infections. 53% of the FRI cases fulfilled the definition of influenza-like illness (ILI), of whom 52% were positive for at least one virus. The most frequent etiologies for mono-infections among FRI cases were Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (13%), Influenza B (13%) and coxsackevirus (9%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of ILI for influenza among FRI cases were 72%, 48%, 40% and 69% respectively. On logistic regression, there were marked differences in the prevalence of different symptoms and signs between viruses with fever more prevalent amongst influenza and adenovirus infections than other viruses. Conclusion There are multiple viral etiologies for FRI and ILI with differing clinical symptoms in the Singapore military. Influenza and coxsackevirus were the most common etiology for FRI, while influenza and adenoviruses displayed the most febrile symptoms. Further studies should explore these differences and possible interventions.