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This paper provides compelling evidence for the importance of heterogeneous nucleation, likely on solid particles of meteoritic origin, and of small-scale temperature fluctuations, for the formation of ice particles in the Arctic stratosphere. During January 2010, ice PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds) were shown by CALIPSO (Cloud- Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) to have occurred on a synoptic scale (~1000 km dimension). CALIPSO observations also showed widespread PSCs containing NAT (nitric acid trihydrate) particles in December 2009, prior to the occurrence of synoptic-scale regions of ice PSCs during mid-January 2010. We demonstrate by means of detailed microphysical modeling along air parcel trajectories that the formation of these PSCs is not readily reconciled with expectations from the conventional understanding of PSC nucleation mechanisms. The measurements are at odds with the previous laboratory-based understanding of PSC formation, which deemed direct heterogeneous nucleation of NAT and ice on preexisting solid particles unlikely. While a companion paper (Part 1) addresses the heterogeneous nucleation of NAT during December 2009, before the existence of ice PSCs, this paper shows that also the largescale occurrence of stratospheric ice in January 2010 cannot be explained merely by homogeneous ice nucleation but requires the heterogeneous nucleation of ice, e.g. on meteoritic dust or preexisting NAT particles. The required efficiency of the ice nuclei is surprisingly high, namely comparable to that of known tropospheric ice nuclei such as mineral dust particles. To gain model agreement with the ice number densities inferred from observations, the presence of small-scale temperature fluctuations, with wavelengths unresolved by the numerical weather prediction models, is required. With the derived rate parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation we are able to explain and reproduce CALIPSO observations throughout the entire Arctic winter 2009/2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone (TC) can modify the midlatitude flow and thus have implications for the weather and predictability in downstream regions such as North America or Europe. Albeit recurving and undergoing ET, the downstream impact of Typhoon Jangmi in September 2008 during the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) was weak. In this study, we explore the physical processes inhibiting the reintensification of Jangmi and governing the forecast uncertainty during ET. The focus is on the relative contribution of the TC and the midlatitude flow. Quasi-geostrophic diagnostics reveal that Jangmi is located south of and in phase with a midlatitude trough. Jangmi does not couple with the region favourable for reintensification ahead of the trough and subsequently decays. Instead, a weak frontal wave-like cyclone develops. The role of the phasing of Typhoon Jangmi and the midlatitude Rossby wave pattern is tested in sensitivity experiments with the COSMO model in which Jangmi has been relocated. The simulations reveal two contrasting groups of scenarios. The first group reflects the weak actual ET and subsequent decay accompanied by a broad ridge over the Pacific. The second group is characterized by a strong ET with extratropical reintensification, the triggering of a pronounced Rossby wave train and downstream cyclogenesis. The displacement of Jangmi's initial position in the two contrasting groups is less than 1.25° (130 km). In the frame moving with the environmental background flow a critical bifurcation point for the track of Jangmi exists. The relative position to this bifurcation point determines whether Jangmi decays or reintensifies and triggers a Rossby wave train. A simple discrimination parameter is derived that allows for classifying the scenarios. The observed behaviour gives a simple explanation for the reduced predictability of the track and of the midlatitude flow in downstream regions during ET. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identifies the key physical process that governs the direct impact of the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoon Jangmi on the midlatitude flow in September 2008. Jangmi was the strongest tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific in 2008 and occurred during the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). A distinct outflow-jet interaction resulted in ridgebuilding directly downstream of the ET system and a strongly accelerated upper-level jet streak over Japan. A combination of model and observational data is used to investigate the interaction of the transforming TC with the midlatitude flow and a potential vorticity (PV) surgery technique based on PV inversion is developed to further quantify the contribution of the TC to the modification of the midlatitude flow during ET. The joint interaction of the TC circulation with the midlatitude baroclinic zone and of the TC outflow with the upper-level jet is found to be responsible for a substantial diabatically enhanced vertical transport of lower tropospheric air that arrives at jet level with nearly zero PV. This process explains the ridgebuilding and evolution of the jet streak to the northeast of the ET system. The quantification of Jangmi's role in the outflow-jet interaction revealed the diabatic reduction and isentropic transport of upper-tropospheric PV into the jet region as the key physical process responsible for the direct impact of ET. This is manifested in a ridgebuilding with upper-level PV being 6 PVU lower and a midlatitude jet streak being at least 25 m s−1 faster in the presence of Jangmi. The study corroborates the crucial role that ET has on the modification of the midlatitude flow directly downstream of a transforming TC. The remote, downstream impact of the ET of Jangmi is investigated in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reduced asymptotic model valid for the planetary and synoptic scales in the atmosphere is presented. The model is derived by applying a systematic multiple-scales asymptotic method to the full compressible-flow equations in spherical geometry. The synoptic-scale dynamics in the model is governed by modified quasigeostrophic equations, which take into account planetary-scale variations of the background stratification and of the Coriolis parameter. The planetary-scale background is described by the planetary geostrophic equations and a new closure condition in the form of a two-scale evolution equation for the barotropic component of the background flow. This closure equation provides a model revealing an interaction mechanism from the synoptic scale to the planetary scale. To obtain a quantitative assessment of the validity of the asymptotics, the balances on the planetary and synoptic scales are studied by utilizing a primitive equations model. For that purpose, spatial and temporal variations of different terms in the vorticity equation are analyzed. It is found that, for planetary-scale modes, the horizontal fluxes of relative and planetary vorticity are nearly divergence free. It is shown that the results are consistent with the asymptotic model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The nano-mineralogy, petrology, and chemistry of coal gasification products have not been studied as extensively as the products of the more widely used pulverized-coal combustion. The solid residues from the gasification of a low- to medium-sulfur, inertinite-rich, volatile A bituminous coal, and a high sulfur, vitrinite-rich, volatile C bituminous coal were investigated. Multifaceted chemical characterization by XRD, Raman spectroscopy, petrology, FE-SEM/EDS, and HR-TEM/SEAD/FFT/EDS provided an in-depth understanding of coal gasification ash-forming processes. The petrology of the residues generally reflected the rank and maceral composition of the feed coals, with the higher rank, high-inertinite coal having anisotropic carbons and inertinite in the residue, and the lower rank coal-derived residue containing isotropic carbons. The feed coal chemistry determines the mineralogy of the non-glass, non-carbon portions of the residues, with the proportions of CaCO3 versus Al2O3 determining the tendency towards the neoformation of anorthite versus mullite, respectively. Electron beam studies showed the presence of a number of potentially hazardous elements in nanoparticles. Some of the neoformed ultra-fine/nano-minerals found in the coal ashes are the same as those commonly associated with oxidation/transformation of sulfides and sulfates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the significant part of the territory of Russia and other northern countries, the snowstorm is a frequently observed hazardous meteorological phenomenon. The significant duration of the cold period and the presence of vast snow areas as well as synoptic and orographic factors that cause the formation of strong winds, create the conditions for the snowstorm activity in the most part of Russia. In the present paper, an algorithm is proposed of the snowstorm forecast (separately for overall and ground snowstorms) for Murmansk region and Central Federal District based on the data of WRF-ARW modern hydrodynamic regional model used in the operational practice in the Hydrometcenter of Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have key environmental and biological roles, but little is known about the daily VOC mixing ratios in Mediterranean urban and natural environments. We measured VOC mixing ratios concurrently at an urban and a rural site during the winter DAURE campaign in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, by means of PTR-MS at both locations: a PTR-Quad- MS at the urban site and a PTR-ToF-MS at the rural site. All VOC mixing ratios measured were higher at the urban site (e.g. acetaldehyde, isoprene, benzene, and toluene with averages up to 1.68, 0.31, 0.58 and 2.71 ppbv, respectively), with the exception of some short-chain oxygenated VOCs such as acetone (with similar averages of 0.7-1.6 ppbv at both sites). The average diurnal pattern also differed between the sites. Most of the VOCs at the urban location showed their highest mixing ratios in the morning and evening. These peaks coincided with traffic during rush hour, the main origin of most of the VOCs analyzed. Between these two peaks, the sea breeze transported the urban air inland, thus helping to lower the VOC loading at the urban site. At the rural site, most of the measured VOCs were advected by the midday sea breeze, yielding the highest daily VOC mixing ratios (e.g. acetaldehyde, isoprene, benzene, and toluene with averages up to 0.65, 0.07, 0.19, and 0.41 ppbv, respectively). Only biogenic monoterpenes showed a clear local origin at this site. In addition, the concentrations of fine particulate matter observed at both sites, together with the synoptic meteorological conditions and radio-sounding data, allowed the identification of different atmospheric scenarios that had a clear influence on the measured VOC mixing ratios. These results highlight the differences and relationships in VOC mixing ratios between nearby urban and rural areas in Mediterranean regions. Further research in other urban-rural areas is warranted to better understand the urban-rural influence on atmospheric VOC mixing ratios under different atmospheric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presented are the first results of the development of long-range forecast of forest fire risk on the territory of the Russian Far East. Used are the main concepts presented in the papers of G.R. Bregman and B.M. Ginzburg. Forest fire risk parameters in Khabarovsk territory, Jewish autonomous region, and Amur region for the previous years are reconstructed using the heat-balance methods. Carried out is the first stage of the research based on the synoptic statistical method: the typical fields are singled out of meteorological variables in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from the Azores to the Aleutian Islands. Presented is the automated system developed by the authors and separating these meteorological fields significant for the forecast of forest fire conditions on the vast territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we performed a comprehensive analysis of 19 waterspout events that occurred in the Eastern Adriatic basin in 2010. Data were collected from the synoptic and climatological weather stations and from eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. The geographical and temporal distributions of the waterspouts, as well as the absolute frequencies of four synoptic types relevant to waterspout development (south-west flow (SW), long-wave trough (LW), closed low (CLOSED) and short-wave trough (SWT)), are presented. The synoptic and mesoscale weather conditions were analyzed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, satellite images, data from synoptic and automatic weather stations and atmospheric soundings. To test waterspouts for thunderstorm relations the LINET network sensor data were used to infer lightning activity. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Nomogram (SWN) and the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) were tested using the ALADIN model. The results of the analyses of the 2010 cases show that the SWN successfully forecasted 15 out of 19 events (hit rate of 78.9%). This is a significant hit rate but is not as high as in the work of Keul et al. (2009), in which 96% of the Adriatic cases satisfied the nomogram. In addition, four selected waterspout cases, which represent the four basic synoptic types, were analyzed in detail to provide an overview of favorable atmospheric environments for waterspouts throughout the year. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Forecasting hailstorms is an important challenge. Improving these forecasts is of vital importance to reduce the risks that this phenomenon causes to the environment and the population. This paper presents a methodology for the characterization of hailstorms in different scales by means of: the definition of the synoptic environment favorable to convection, the establishment of mesoscale configurations on hailstorm days, and an analysis of prediction parameters for the presence of hail. Simulations with the WRF model were done for 100 study days in which hailstorms were produced in the Middle Ebro Valley. The synoptic environment was defined from the average geopotential and temperature fields at 500hPa. Using multivariate techniques of the Principal Component Analysis in T-Mode and a Cluster Analysis, four mesoscale configurations were defined for the fields of convective instability, water vapor flux divergence and wind flow and humidity at low layers. Finally, the study included several hail forecast parameters: CAPE, Storm Relative Helicity between 0 and 3km (SRH0–3), Energy–Helicity Index (EHI) and Showalter Index (SI); making a comparison between hail/hail-free grid points, which allowed us to determine their values and thresholds in order to discern the presence of hail within convective precipitation areas. The analysis, along with these three basic ingredients, provides a very useful tool that allows for a good approximation for predicting storms with hail in the study area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The European carbon monoxide (CO) budget is studied in relation to the synoptic circulation throughout 2001, using the nested-grid configuration of the GEOS-CHEM global model and CO measurements from 31 rural background stations. To meet the aims of this study, a seasonal circulation type (CT) classification is developed for the Northern Hemisphere based on mean sea-level pressure (SLP) fields, as well as two upper atmospheric levels, over a 60-yr period. The highest contribution to the European surface CO concentrations is attributed to regional anthropogenic sources (up to -80%), which become more important under the prevalence of anticyclonic circulation conditions. The corresponding contribution of the long-range transport (LRT) from North America (up to 18%) and Asia (up to 20%) is found highest (lowest) in winter and spring (summer and autumn). The transport of the CO towards Europe in winter is more intense under cyclonic circulation, while both cyclonic and anticyclonic patterns favour LRT during other seasons. Occasionally (mainly in winter and spring), LRT contribution is higher than the regional one (up to 45%). In the free troposphere, the LRT contribution increases, with the largest impact originating from Asia. This flow is favoured by the intense easterly circulation in summer, contributing up to 30% in the Eastern Mediterranean during this season. On the other hand, the regional contribution in the upper levels decreases to 22%. The contribution of CO chemical production is significant for the European CO budget at all levels and seasons, exceeding 50% in the free troposphere during summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aeolian dust particles and dust storms play substantial role in climatic and other environmental processes of the Earth system. The largest and most important dust source areas are situated in the Sahara, from where several hundred thousand tons of mineral dust is emitted each year and transported towards the European continent. Here we show that 130 Saharan dust events (SDEs) reached the atmosphere of the Carpathian Basin from 1979 to 2011 by using the NASA''s daily TOMS Aerosol Index data, satellite images and backward trajectory calculations of NOAA HYSPLIT model. Monthly trends of dust events demonstrate that the main period of dust transportation is in the spring, with a secondary maximum in the summer (in July and August). This seasonal distribution match well the seasonality of Saharan dust emissions. However synoptic meteorological conditions govern primarily the occurrence of long-range dust transport towards Central Europe. Based on their different meteorological backgrounds (geopotential field, wind vector and meridional flow), SDEs were classified into three main types. By using composite mean maps of synoptic situations and backward trajectories, the possible source areas have also been identified for the different types of events. Finally, we provide a short discussion on how the African mineral dust could contribute to the local aeolian sedimentation of the Carpathian Basin during the Plio-Pleistocene. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article focuses on meteorology students' use of probabilistic forecasting game in classrooms. The New Brunswick Forecasting Game (NBFG) was designed while students in synoptic meteorology are required to make forecasts once a week during the fall semester and during the spring semester, they were asked to make forecasts twice a week. In assessing the quality of probabilistic forecasts, the attributes diagram was used. NFBG forecasts are considered skillful and reasonably reliable.

Abstract: The seasonal variations of the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) circulation and sea level are described using observations of velocity from an array of moored acoustic Doppler current profilers and various ancillary data. With record lengths ranging from 3years to over a decade, a robust seasonal cycle in velocity is found, which varies across the shelf in a dynamically sensible way. Over most of the inner shelf these seasonal variations are primarily in response to local forcing, through Ekman-geostrophic spin-up, as previously found for the synoptic scale variability. Thus the inner shelf circulation is predominantly upwelling favorable from fall to spring months (October–April) and downwelling favorable during summer months (June–September). Seaward from about the 50m isobath, where baroclinicity becomes of increasing importance, the seasonal variations are less pronounced. Over the outer shelf and near the southwestern end of the WFS, the seasonal variations are obscured by the deep ocean influences of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and its eddies. The seasonal variations in sea level are also robust. But unlike the velocity, these extend across the entire WFS and into the deep Gulf of Mexico. These seasonal sea level variations arise from two influences, one static, the other dynamic. The static influence projects onto the WFS by the static seasonal rise and fall of the Gulf of Mexico sea level due to heating and cooling (also occurring on the shelf). On climatological average, this ranges by about 0.12m, with a minimum in February and a maximum in August and deriving primarily from the density variations over the upper 100m of the water column. Such climatologically averaged variation due to temperature and salinity is also seen in satellite altimetry. An additional dynamic influence of about 0.06m occurs over the inner shelf by the Ekman-geostrophic spin up to the seasonally varying winds. Together, the static and dynamic ocean responses result in a climatologically averaged coastal sea level variation at the central (vicinity of Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor) region of the WFS of about 0.18m after adjustment for the inverted barometer effect, which adds about another 0.06m for a total climatologically averaged annual sea level range of about 0.24m. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this study we use observational data to examine the characteristics of open-sea areas over the Mediterranean Sea with respect to the water vapour variability. Datasets of vertical water vapour distribution available from coastal radiosoundings and satellite-derived products are analyzed with respect to the seasonal variability of four variables: relative humidity at three reference pressure levels (surface, 850hPa, 500hPa), precipitable water for three layers between surface and pressure levels of 850hPa, 500hPa and 200hPa, as well as for mean lower and upper tropospheric relative humidity. It is found that the eastern basin presents a distinct and well marked regional characteristic, namely a stronger seasonal cycle of relative humidity and dryer upper troposphere during summer. Differences in the seasonal variability of relative humidity between the maritime and coastal environments are also documented. The direct comparison is complemented by the performance analysis of a linear regression model relating surface water vapour mixing ratio to integrated and mean measures of humidity. The results show that in general, coastal profiles describe reasonably well the open-sea conditions for winter months, characterized by low synoptic variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean on synoptic time scales (days to weeks) is investigated using moored current meter data collected in the strait of Bab el Mandeb from June 1995 to November 1996. Transport variations through the strait on these time scales can reach amplitudes of up to 0.6 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1), or nearly twice as large as the mean rate of exchange through the strait driven by annual evaporation over the Red Sea. The synoptic transport variability appears to be driven by two primary forcing mechanisms: 1) local wind stress variability over the strait and 2) variation in the large-scale barometric pressure over the Red Sea. Simple models of the forced response are developed and are shown to reproduce the essential features of the observations. The response to barometric pressure forcing over the Red Sea is fun-damentally barotropic, whereas the response to along-strait winds is barotropic at high frequencies and tends toward a two-layer exchange at low frequencies. The responses to both types of forcing show enhanced am-plitude at the Helmholtz resonance frequency for the Red Sea, which occurs at a period of about 5 days. A linear two-layer model, incorporating both types of forcing and a reasonable frictional parameterization, is shown to account for about 70% of the observed transport variance within the strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the interdecadal changes in the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern during the winter season (November-February) that accompanies the global-scale climate shift in the late 1970s. In the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, the PNA pattern shows three distinctive features during the period of 1983-2002 in contrast with that of the previous decades (1959-1977): the extension of the central North Pacific cell into the Gulf of Alaska, the eastward shift of the action centre of the Canadian cell, and weakening of the North America cell. Pacific/North American structural changes are closely related to the southeastward shift of the storm track that causes the vigorous synoptic eddy feedback region to move farther east. Eddy activity feeds the cyclonic flow at the eastern part of conventional central North Pacific cell, following the pattern change of storm track. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature data from 29 synoptic stations in Iran for a period of 40 years (1966-2005) were analyzed to test for the existence of monotonic trends and shift changes in the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean air temperature series using the Mann-Kendall and Mann-Whitney tests. The influences of significant lag-1 serial correlation were eliminated from data by the trend-free pre-whitening method prior to the trend analysis. The magnitude of the temperature trends was derived from the Theil-Sen's slope estimator. It was found that annual mean air temperature increased at 25 out of the 29 stations, of which 17 stations showed significant monotonic trends. The magnitude of the annual mean air temperature trends averagely was (+)0.224°C per decade. Most of the stations with the significant positive monotonic trends had a significant upward shift change. The analysis indicated that the change point year of the significant upward shift changes was 1972 for the whole stations except the coastal ones. Moreover, the strongest monotonic increasing trends and upward shift changes were observed in summer especially in August and September. The spatial analysis of the mean air temperature trends revealed the highest numbers of significant monotonic trends in the big cities of Iran. These findings provide more insights for better understanding of regional temperature behavior in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A phenomenon characterized by a tongue of low pressure extending northward from the southern Red Sea [Red Sea Trough (RST)] toward the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EM) is analyzed. In general, the RST is associated with hot and dry weather, resulting from east-southeasterly flows in the lower troposphere. In some cases, the RST is found to be accompanied by an upper-tropospheric trough extending from the north over the EM. Such conditions are associated with unstable stratification, favoring the development of mesoscale convective systems. This kind of RST has been defined as an 'active' RST (ARST). The ARST phenomenon represents a serious threat to human society in the northeastern Africa-southeastern Mediterranean region, being in some cases associated with devastating floods. In this study, a conceptual model of the ARST phenomenon is discussed, and then an algorithm for the identification of ARST events is presented. The identification algorithm has been applied to a multiyear NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data archive for both RST and ARST events. From the results of a composite analysis of several different atmospheric flow parameters associated with ARST events, the key features associated with ARST events are identified. The results from the analysis of the composite patterns support the suggestion that high amounts of moisture transported from tropical Africa in the form of an atmospheric river to the Red Sea-EM play a key role in determining the intensity of the ARST events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freezing rain is a major environmental hazard that is especially common along the St. Lawrence River valley (SLRV) in southern Quebec, Canada. For large cities such as Montreal, severe events can have a devastating effect on people, property, and commerce. In this study, a composite analysis of 46 long-duration events for the period 1979-2008 is presented to identify key synoptic-scale structures and precursors of Montreal freezing rain events. Based on the observed structures of the 500-hPa heights, these events are manually partitioned into three types-west, central, and east-depending on the location and tilt of the 500-hPa trough axis. West events are characterized by a strong surface anticyclone downstream of Montreal, an inverted trough extending northward to the Great Lakes, and a quasi-stationary area of geostrophic frontogenesis located over Quebec. Central events are characterized by a cyclone-anticyclone couplet pattern, with a deeper surface trough extending into southern Ontario, and a strong stationary anticyclone over Quebec. East events are characterized by the passage of a transient well-defined cyclone, and a weaker downstream anticyclone. In all cases, cold northeasterly winds are channeled down the SLRV primarily by pressure-driven channeling. Northeasterly surface winds are associated with strong low-level temperature inversions within the SLRV. Additionally, west events tend to have a longer duration of weaker precipitation, while east events tend to have a shorter duration of more intense precipitation. The results of this study may aid forecasters in identifying and understanding the synoptic-scale structures and precursors to Montreal freezing rain events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: From the 7th July, 2010 until 14th July, 2010, a heat wave dominated the weather in Belgium. Three major storm situations occurred during this period and all three caused severe damage. In this paper, we discuss the last storm case of 14th July. That day, a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) crossed parts of France, Belgium and the Netherlands and caused very important wind damages and at least 2 people were killed. Most of the damage was caused by straight-line wind but at least one tornado was observed over the north of the Netherlands. This complex was induced in a very favorable synoptic configuration for severe weather and also the timing of the storm was favorable. In the frame of the Supercell project at the RMI, a damage survey was made of one of the most affected regions, which yielded useful information about the origin of the losses. Careful examination of the radar imagery revealed some connections between internal mesovortices and tracks of enhanced damage. As far as known, this paper is the first description of a derecho in Belgium. It is also the first time a connection is shown between some mesovortices and several damage tracks over the country. During the evolution of the QLCS, several examples of successive vortices were found in front of the system. Several of the vortices were accompanied by a tornado or a funnel cloud and the damage was typically concentrated along elongated tracks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

As synoptic storms, tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly nonlinear systems resulting from multiscale interactions. In particular, the genesis of TCs involves complex nonlinear processes, exhibiting strong internal variability in climate model simulations. This study attempts to examine such internal variability of dynamically downscaled TCs over the western North Pacific Ocean based on four simulations of 20 typhoon seasons (1982−2001) initialized on 4 successive days using the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) Regional Atmospheric Model (iRAM). The results show that on both seasonal and interannual time scales, the initial conditions significantly affect the downscaled TC activity, with the largest internal variability occurring in August on the seasonal time scale. The spreads between any of the individual simulations and the ensemble mean are comparable to and in some circumstances greater than the interannual variation of the observed TC frequency. The internal variability of the downscaled TC activity is found to be insensitive to the amplitude and the pattern of the initial perturbations. However, day-to-day model solutions are strongly affected by the internal variability. As a result, the development of nonlinear atmospheric instabilities significantly modulates the genesis and development of the TC-like vortices, leading to the large internal variability of the downscaled TC activity. In addition to the traditional initial value problem, criteria (in particular, threshold values) used in the TC detection contribute equally to the internal variability of the downscaled TCs in the simulations. Consistent with earlier studies, the results from this study also show that the ensemble mean provides the better downscaled information on seasonal and interannual frequencies of TC genesis and occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, this study identifies common synoptic flow patterns associated with propagating (long lived) and nonpropagating (short lived) precipitation/cloud episodes in the warm season over East Asia (25°-40°N, 95°-125°E). Among 123 initial cases during May-July 1997-2003, 86 were classified into three categories (propagating cases with strong and weak forcing, and nonpropagating ones with strong inhibition) consisting of 10 types based on their 500-hPa flow patterns. For each type, composites at various levels when episodes moved across 100°, 105°, 110°, 115°, and 120°E were made and discussed to elucidate the influence of synoptic conditions. For propagating episodes with strong 500-hPa forcing (46 cases), four types were identified. In their composites, favorable positive vorticity advection forcing from an approaching trough/short wave exists aloft, and concurrent development of southwest vortex and front/wind-shift line at low levels leads to enhanced southwesterly flow to provide vertical shear and moisture. For nonpropagating episodes with strong inhibition (25 cases), three types dominated by synoptic-scale subsidence from either negative vorticity advection or the subtropical high were identified. Thus, episodes weaken shortly after they move out from the Tibetan Plateau. There are also propagating episodes but with weak forcing (15 cases), for which another three types were found. The differences in their composites from nonpropagating types are mainly at low levels, where the southerly flow is stronger and can penetrate deeper inland. As stability conditions are similar for all type of episodes, the results suggest an important role of stronger low-level southwesterly winds in providing moisture and vertical wind shear to sustain episodes and their propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We confirm the close synoptic relationship of the sectoral structure of the Sun's magnetic field of the with the near-Earth tropospheric pressure with a case study of three European points (Troitsk, Rome, Jungfrau) in the period of the anomalously hot summer of June-August 2010. We substantiate the position that such a relationship was fostered by the anomalously low solar activity as a result of superposition of the minima of the 22- and 180-year cycles. Sectoral analysis of the solar-tropospheric relationships has shown that the appearance of a blocking anticyclone in the Moscow suburbs, its expansion to Rome and Jungfrau, and subsequent retreat at first from these points, and then from the Moscow suburbs was closely related to solar activity phenomena producing, according to contemporary notions, cyclonic activity, shown by simulation of the Earth's electric field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new event-scale catalog of stable isotopic measurements from 5 years of storm events at 4 sites in southern California, which is used to understand the storm to storm controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation and validate the event-scale performance of an isotope-enabled GCM simulation ( IsoGSM) (Yoshimura et al. ). These analyses are motivated to improve the interpretation of proxy records from this region and provide guidance in testing the skill of GCMs in reproducing the hydrological variability in the western US. We find that approximately 40% of event-scale isotopic variability arises from the percentage of precipitation that is convective and the near surface relative humidity in the days prior to the storms landfall. The additional isotopic variability arises from the fact that storms arriving from different source regions advect moisture of distinct isotopic compositions. We show using both field correlation and Lagrangian trajectory analysis that the advection of subtropical and tropical moisture is important in producing the most isotopically enriched precipitation. The isotopic catalog is then used along with satellite-derived δD retrievals of atmospheric moisture to benchmark the performance of the IsoGSM model for the western US. The model is able to successfully replicate the observed isotopic variability suggesting that it is closely reproducing the moisture transport and storm track dynamics that drive the large storm-to-storm isotopic range. Notably, we find that an increase in moisture flux from the central tropical Pacific leads to a convergence of isotopically enriched water vapor in the subtropics and consequently an increase in δO of precipitation at sites along the entire west coast. Changes in poleward moisture flux from the central Tropical Pacific have important implications for both the global hydrological cycle and regional precipitation amounts and we suggest such changes can be captured through instrumental and proxy-reconstruction of the spatiotemporal isotopic patterns in the precipitation along the west coast of the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to test the sensitivity of the transitional phase of the 2006 West African monsoon (WAM) onset to different mechanisms, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been carried out addressing the role of the Saharan heat low (SHL) and its sensitivity to the albedo field and to the northern Africa orography, and the role of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean. Lowering albedo over the desert region induces a northward location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), while removing mountains in North Africa reduces rainfall over West Africa. Shifting SST forward by 15 days leads to a northward location of the ITCZ before the WAM onset. However none of these factors modifies the timing of the WAM onset in 2006. The transitional phase of the 2006 WAM onset has been examined in more detail. The enhancement of SHL intensity, combined with the development of the oceanic cold tongue in the Guinea gulf, leads to low-level moisture flux divergence in the ITCZ reducing rainfall and increasing low-level humidity over the Sahel. However, weakening of convection can be clearly attributed to dry-air intrusions in mid-levels, originating from the subtropical westerly jet and associated with Rossby wave pattern over North Africa. Sensitivity tests on the synoptic scale forcing outside of the WRF model domain confirm the dominating role of large-scale dynamics to control the transitional phase of the WAM onset and its timing. However it is shown that the regional factors can modulate this larger scale forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyse the periods of precipitation surplus and deficit in the Cibin hydrographic basin, in a causal liaison with the synoptic situations that generate floods or droughts. The periods of precipitation surplus represent a risk that usually has local impact, unlike the periods of precipitation deficit, where the areal spread is large, and the onset and development are slow. The perception in the case of periods with pluviometric surplus is that of a major hydrological risk, because of their violent and progressive manner of manifestation; while droughts are perceived as being less dangerous phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The study of abrupt changes in longitudinal river profiles, or knickpoints, is currently approached through an empirical power law: the slope–area relationship. Results based on digital elevation model (DEM) analyses and stream extractions are generally intended to determine crustal uplift rates and identify transient landscape conditions. In this article, we present an alternative geomorphometric method for locating knickpoints and knickzones based on local slope gradient and curvature attributes. Intended as a rapid, regional scale, automated knickpoint detection technique, the accuracy of this slope–curvature method is tested on two digital elevation grids, NASA''s SRTM (ground resolution of 90m, resampled here to 75m) and the ASTER DEM (15m) in the Sierra Nacimiento (New Mexico, USA), a basement-cored mountain range recently exhumed by waves of headward drainage integration in response to remote tectonic deformation in the adjacent Rio Grande rift. Out of every 10 gradient anomalies detected by the SRTM-derived numeric routine, up to 8 are certifiable knickpoints recognized among a population of georeferenced occurrences surveyed in the field. An independent comparison with the slope–area method provided a further accuracy test, which was particularly useful at sites that could not be validated in the field for practical reasons. Given the low tectonic activity of the study area, the majority of knickpoints was also found to coincide with lithologic boundaries, making it difficult without further geomorphological data to single out dynamic knickpoints directly caused by the upstream propagation of channel instabilities relating to base level change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper investigates the extreme precipitation events in the southern Iberian Peninsula (Andalusia) using 86 stations with daily precipitation records for the period 1955–2006. Seasonal (excluding summer) and monthly trends were established for different extreme-precipitation indices. Both the stability and the significance of the trends were examined. The findings indicate a significant spatial and seasonal variability. The most noteworthy results were found in winter, with a predominance of decreasing trends for intensity indices in western and central (CW) Andalusia, whereas positive trends appeared in the south-eastern (SE) zone. These marked differences in the sign of trends in short distances evidence the importance of using a dense network of stations for regional analysis of extremes. Overall, spring analysis reveals a negative trend in the intensity indices, especially in March. In autumn, the significance of the trends proved lower in comparison to winter and spring, and only September presented significant increasing trends in intensity indices. The synoptic patterns associated with heavy precipitation events were compared with two large-circulation indices affecting the precipitation over Andalusia (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation, WeMO). This analysis was made for the two sub-areas of Andalusia separately. The synoptic patterns at the surface and 500-hPa level were determined by the use of a principal component analysis (PCA) in T-mode coupled with clustering techniques. The seasonal distribution and the location of disturbances of the atmospheric patterns found were clearly differentiated in the two areas. The tendencies found for the indices agree with the changes in the frequency of the main synoptic patterns for each area. Furthermore, most of these synoptic patterns were related to highly negative WeMO values. Conversely, only some of the patterns associated with heavy rainfall in the western and central area presented significant negative values of the NAO index. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper reports the results of a parametric CFD study on idealized city models to investigate the potential of slope flow in ventilating a city located in a mountainous region when the background synoptic wind is absent. Examples of such a city include Tokyo in Japan, Los Angeles and Phoenix in the US, and Hong Kong. Two types of buoyancy-driven flow are considered, i.e., slope flow from the mountain slope (katabatic wind at night and anabatic wind in the daytime), and wall flow due to heated/cooled urban surfaces. The combined buoyancy-driven flow system can serve the purpose of dispersing the accumulated urban air pollutants when the background wind is weak or absent. The microscopic picture of ventilation performance within the urban structures was evaluated in terms of air change rate (ACH) and age of air. The simulation results reveal that the slope flow plays an important role in ventilating the urban area, especially in calm conditions. Katabatic flow at night is conducive to mitigating the nocturnal urban heat island. In the present parametric study, the mountain slope angle and mountain height are assumed to be constant, and the changing variables are heating/cooling intensity and building height. For a typical mountain of 500 m inclined at an angle of 20° to the horizontal level, the interactive structure is very much dependent on the ratio of heating/cooling intensity as well as building height. When the building is lower than 60 m, the slope wind dominates. When the building is as high as 100 m, the contribution from the urban wall flow cannot be ignored. It is found that katabatic wind can be very beneficial to the thermal environment as well as air quality at the pedestrian level. The air change rate for the pedestrian volume can be as high as 300 ACH. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The vorticity, eddy kinetic energy, and helicity budgets were calculated to study the variations of a long-lived tropical mesoscale vortex that occurred over Hainan during the period 05-09 October 2010. The main results are as follows: the vortex was mainly located at middle to lower levels of the troposphere, and among different levels, the dominant factors responsible for the variations of the vortex were different. Intense convergence at the lower troposphere dominated the formation and longevity of the vortex. The vertical transport of positive vorticity which was closely related to the convective activities was conducive to the formation and maintenance of the vortex. The barotropic energy conversion was favorable for the formation of the vortex, while the baroclinic energy conversion accelerated its attenuation. Background circulations were favorable for the longevity of the vortex, and interactions with other synoptic systems were important to its variations. The variation of helicity was closely related to the vortex, and the maintenance of positive helicity was another favorable factor for the longevity of the vortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a novel database of ground and remotely sensed data from the United Kingdom, which is uniquely suited to scaling-up multispectral measurements from a single plot to the scale of satellite sensor observations. Multiple aircraft and satellite sensors were involved, and most of the data were acquired on a single day in June 2006, providing a synoptic view which, at its largest extent, covered most of southern England and Wales. Three airborne imaging spectrometers were involved (Specim AISA Eagle, Itres CASI-2 and -3) and three satellite sensors (UK-DMC, PROBA/CHRIS, and SPOT HRG), complemented with airborne LiDAR, multispectral survey cameras, and ground measurements (land cover, LAI, reflectance factors, and atmospheric measurements). In this paper the NCAVEO Field Campaign (NFC) database is described and an example of its use to produce a high spatial resolution leaf area index map for the validation of medium-resolution products (MODIS, VEGETATION, and MERIS) is presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Hurricane Gustav (2008) made landfall in southern Louisiana on 1 September 2008 with its eye never closer than 75 km to New Orleans, but its waves and storm surge threatened to flood the city. Easterly tropical-storm-strength winds impacted the region east of the Mississippi River for 12--15 h, allowing for early surge to develop up to 3.5 m there and enter the river and the city''s navigation canals. During landfall, winds shifted from easterly to southerly, resulting in late surge development and propagation over more than 70 km of marshes on the river''s west bank, over more than 40 km of Caernarvon marsh on the east bank, and into Lake Pontchartrain to the north. Wind waves with estimated significant heights of 15 m developed in the deep Gulf of Mexico but were reduced in size once they reached the continental shelf. The barrier islands further dissipated the waves, and locally generated seas existed behind these effective breaking zones. The hardening and innovative deployment of gauges since Hurricane Katrina (2005) resulted in a wealth of measured data for Gustav. A total of 39 wind wave time histories, 362 water level time histories, and 82 high water marks were available to describe the event. Computational models--including a structured-mesh deepwater wave model (WAM) and a nearshore steady-state wave (STWAVE) model, as well as an unstructured-mesh ''simulating waves nearshore'' (SWAN) wave model and an advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model--resolve the region with unprecedented levels of detail, with an unstructured mesh spacing of 100--200 m in the wave-breaking zones and 20--50 m in the small-scale channels. Data-assimilated winds were applied using NOAA''s Hurricane Research Division Wind Analysis System (H**Wind) and Interactive Objective Kinematic Analysis (IOKA) procedures. Wave and surge computations from these models are validated comprehensively at the measurement locations ranging from the deep Gulf of Mexico and along the coast to the rivers and floodplains of southern Louisiana and are described and quantified within the context of the evolution of the storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern subtropical Pacific (SEP) during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign which was carried out between October and November 2008. Mainly based on data from operational analyses, forecasts, reanalysis, and satellite observations, we focus on spatiotemporal scales from synoptic to planetary. A climatological context is given within which the specific conditions observed during the campaign are placed, with particular reference to the relationships between the large-scale and the regional circulations. The mean circulations associated with the diurnal breeze systems are also discussed. We then provide a summary of the day-to-day synoptic-scale circulation, air-parcel trajectories, and cloud cover in the SEP during VOCALS-REx. Three meteorologically distinct periods o time are identified and the large-scale causes for their different character are discussed. The first period was characterised by significant variability associated with synopticscale systems interesting the SEP; while the two subsequent phases were affected by planetary-scale disturbances with a slower evolution. The changes between initial and later periods can be partly explained from the regular march of the annual cycle, but contributions from subseasonal variability and its teleconnections were important. Across the whole of the two months under consideration we find a significant correlation between the depth of the inversion-capped marine boundary layer (MBL) and the amount of low cloud in the area of study. We discuss this correlation and argue that at least as a crude approximation a typical scaling may be applied relating MBL and cloud properties with the large-scale parameters of SSTs and tropospheric temperatures. These results are consistent with previously found empirical relationships involving lower-tropospheric stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grand Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) is prepared for pan-European, short-range probabilistic numerical weather prediction of fine synoptic-scale, quasi-hydrostatic atmospheric flows. Four equally sized ensembles are combined: EuroTEPS, a version of the global ECMWF EPS with European target; AladEPS, a downscaling of EuroTEPS using the ALADIN model; HirEPS_K and HirEPS_S, two ensembles using the HIRLAM model nested into EuroTEPS including 3DVar data-assimilation for two control forecasts. A 52-member GLAMEPS thus samples forecast uncertainty by three analysed initial states combined with 12 singular vector-based perturbations, four different models and the stochastic physics tendencies in EuroTEPS. Over a 7-week test period in winter 2008, GLAMEPS produced better results than ECMWF's EPS with 51 ensemble members. Apart from spatial resolution, the improvement is due to the multimodel combination and to a smaller extent the dedicated EuroTEPS. Ensemble resolution and reliability are both improved. Combining uncalibrated ensembles is seen to produce a better combined ensemble than the best single-model ensemble of the same size, except when one of the single-model ensembles is considerably better than the others. Bayesian Model Averaging improves reliability, but needs further elaboration to account for geographical variations. These conclusions need to be confirmed by long-period evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of a nested model to accurately simulate the subarctic climate is studied here. Two issues have been investigated: Model's internal variability (IV) and the impact of domain size (DS). For this purpose we combine the 'perfect model' approach, Big-Brother Experiment (BBE) (Denis et al. in Clim Dyn 18:627-646, ) with the ensemble of simulations. The advantage of this framework is the possibility to study small-scale climate features that constitute the main added value of RCM. The effects of the DS on result were studied by employing two Little-Brother (LB) domain sizes. IV has been evaluated by introducing small differences in initial conditions in an ensemble of 20 simulations over each LB. Results confirm previous findings that the IV is more important over the larger domain of integration. The temporal evolution over two domain sizes is rather different and depends strongly on the synoptic situation. Small-scales solution over the larger domain diverges freely from the boundary forcing in some periods. Over the smaller domain, the amplitude of small-scale transient eddies is systematically underestimated, especially at higher altitude characterized by the strongest winds along the storm tracks. Over the larger domain, the amplitude of small-scale transient eddies is better represented. However, the weaker control by the lateral boundaries over the larger domain results in solutions with large internal variability. As a result, the ensemble average strongly underestimates the transient-eddy variance due to partial destructive interference of individual ensemble member solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 9-yr (2000--08) analysis of precipitation characteristics for the central and western European Alps has been generated from ground-based operational weather radar data provided by the Swiss radar network. The radar-based precipitation analysis focuses on the relationship between synoptic-scale weather patterns and mesoscale precipitation distribution over complex alpine terrain. The analysis divides the Alps into six regions (each approximately 200 ×× 200 km2 in size)--one on the northern side, two each on the western and southern sides of the Alps, and one in the Massif Central--representing various orographic aspects and localized climates within the radar coverage area. For each region, estimated precipitation rate derived from radar data is analyzed on a seasonal basis for total daily precipitation and frequency of high-precipitation-rate events. The summer season has the highest total daily precipitation for all regions in the study, whereas median values of daily precipitation in winter are less than one-half of median daily precipitation for summer. For all regions, high-precipitation-rate events occur most frequently in the summer. Daily synoptic-scale weather patterns are associated with total daily precipitation and frequency of high precipitation rate to show that an advective synoptic-scale pattern with southerly midtropospheric flow results in the highest median and 90th-quantile values for total daily precipitation and that a convective synoptic-scale pattern results in elevated frequency of extreme-precipitation-rate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a method using composites for studying synoptic conditions of a series of windstorm events selected on the basis of maximum wind speeds in Switzerland. The composite storm-averaged conditions indicate how flow fields, as well as related surface conditions, are organised so as to produce high wind speeds near the surface. On average, high winds in Switzerland, mainly generated by transient synoptic-scale eddies, are characterised by a minimum in the mean sea level pressure field over southern Norway, anticyclonic conditions south of 35°N and a steep pressure gradient over continental western Europe. The geopotential aloft has a predominant zonal structure, producing high winds between 45°N and 50°N over the eastern Atlantic and further inland; the jet stream has its maximum speed at 50°N over the Celtic Sea and Brittany at 250 hPa. Close to the surface, large temperature contrasts between the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea and the cooler continent are diagnosed. The results thus obtained differ to those produced by other methods based on the analysis of deep cyclones or of strong vorticity in the northern North Atlantic Ocean basin. Differences of the composite mean synoptic conditions for current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100) as simulated by the Global Climate Model HadAM3H in the context of the EU PRUDENCE project indicate that windstorms in a warmer world are generated by a subtle modification of the atmospheric baroclinicity, especially over the ocean and where greater ocean-continent temperature contrasts are simulated during winters. However, there are no signs of reduced storm activity as the climate warms by the end of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Potential wind power for a given period (e.g. a day) can be determined from wind speed data measured in certain hours of a period. Obviously, the sum of the cubes of wind speeds measured depends on the number of measurements. This dependence can be reduced in two ways: determining the average and the relative wind energy for a given time within a given period. The method of sliding averages uses both. Applying this method a given hourly average wind speed cube of a day is estimated on the basis of wind speeds measured in that hour of the day. Cubes of the wind speeds are in proportion with the total daily potential and produced wind energy. This model requires long-time series of wind speed data that are available only for weather stations in Hungary, where hourly average winds speeds are registered. For this reason, statistics required for the model were calculated from different subsets of ten-year-long hourly average wind speed time series of three Hungarian weather stations (Szombathely, Budapest-Lőrinc and Debrecen). Using the statistics and hourly wind speed data measured in the vicinity of the wind turbines/on the wind turbines themselves, the model is suitable for giving estimations hourly of the potential wind energy for the whole day in a particular season or circulation type group. A software for the model is also presented here. Considering the results the sliding average model (SLIDAV) makes it possible to forecast average daily wind power 6–9 h before the end of the day with an error of 20%. The magnitude of the error of estimation depends on the given season and/or synoptic type group. These results may provide important information for wind turbine owners: daily amount of wind energy can be determined in this way. Thus the owner can decide whether to operate the turbine whole day, or to stop it periodically for maintenance for example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radon (222Rn) is a powerful natural tracer of mixing and exchange processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. The authors present and discuss the main features of a unique dataset of 50 high-resolution vertical radon profiles up to 3500 m above ground level, obtained in clear and cloudy daytime terrestrial boundary layers over an inland rural site in Australia using an instrumented motorized research glider. It is demonstrated that boundary layer radon profiles frequently exhibit a complex layered structure as a result of mixing and exchange processes of varying strengths and extents working in clear and cloudy conditions within the context of the diurnal cycle and the synoptic meteorology. Normalized aircraft radon measurements are presented, revealing the characteristic structure and variability of three major classes of daytime boundary layer: 1) dry convective boundary layers, 2) mixed layers topped with residual layers, and 3) convective boundary layers topped with coupled nonprecipitating clouds. Robust and unambiguous signatures of important atmospheric processes in the boundary layer are identifiable in the radon profiles, including ''top-down'' mixing associated with entrainment in clear-sky cases and strongly enhanced venting and subcloud-layer mixing when substantial active cumulus are present. In poorly mixed conditions, radon gradients in the daytime atmospheric surface layer significantly exceed those predicted by Monin--Obukhov similarity theory. In two case studies, it is demonstrated for the first time that a sequence of vertical radon profiles measured over the course of a single day can consistently reproduce major structural features of the evolving boundary layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale conditions associated with SAW events in the NCEP--Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. SAW events start in late summer and early fall, peak in December--January, and decrease by early spring. The typical duration of SAW conditions is 1--3 days, although extreme cases can last more than 5 days. SAW events exhibit large interannual variations and possible mechanisms responsible for trends and low-frequency variations need further study. A climate run of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model showed good agreement and generally small differences with the observed climatological characteristics of SAW conditions. Nonprobabilistic and probabilistic forecasts of synoptic-scale conditions associated with SAW were derived from NCEP CFS reforecasts. The CFS model exhibits small systematic biases in sea level pressure and surface winds in the range of a 1--4-week lead time. Several skill measures indicate that nonprobabilistic forecasts of SAW conditions are typically skillful to about a 6--7-day lead time and large interannual variations are observed. NCEP CFS reforecasts were also applied to derive probabilistic forecasts of synoptic conditions during SAW events and indicate skills to about a 6-day lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Two years of continuous particle size distribution measurements at three heights over and in a deciduous forest in southern Indiana exhibit evidence of particle nucleation on 46% of classifiable days, and clear nucleation with consistent subsequent growth on 14% of days. Events characterized by high ultra-fine particle production and clear growth are most frequent in spring. These events most frequently follow cold front passages and exhibit a higher frequency of northerly back-trajectories. Local meteorological conditions, as described using the Nucleation Parameter (NP) of and stability indices, indicate a significant association with ultra-fine particle concentrations, and specifically that nucleation was frequently preceded by destabilization of the atmosphere consistent with entrainment of elevated pollution layers. There appears to be little or no dependence of nucleation frequency or intensity on the in situ condensational sink particularly during spring, which is consistent with very high regional emissions of the precursors of ternary nucleation. Vertical gradients of particle size distributions exhibit evidence for nucleation being focused above canopy and accordingly mean ratios of above and below canopy concentrations of ultra-fine particles (6–30 nm) just subsequent to nucleation are 1.8 and 1.7 respectively during leaf-on and leaf-off periods. The difference in vertical concentration ratios during leaf-on and leaf-off are used to infer that of the order of 25% of ultra-fine particles are captured by foliar elements in the canopy during turbulent mixing through the canopy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stretched from Indochina, across the South China Sea, to the Philippine Sea, a monsoon cyclonic shear flow was formed by easterlies of the cold surge-like flow in the north and monsoon westerlies in the south before the onset of the tropical Southeast Asian monsoon on 12 May 2008. On this date, two named tropical cyclones (Halong and Matmo) evolved with a 12-h lag from a closed vortex adjacent to the coast of central Vietnam and another closed vortex near Palawan Island (Philippines) within this shear flow. These two cyclones, named the twin Philippine tropical cyclones, moved almost on the same track, along the anomalous shear line (departure from the climatological one) across the Philippines, and turned northeastward to the ocean south of Japan. It was revealed from synoptic analysis that the cold surge-like flow was coupled with the midlatitude eastward-propagating short wave in northeast Asia, and part of the monsoon westerlies were fed by the cross-equatorial flow, the downstream flow of easterlies around the northern rim of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high. The environment favorable for the formation of the twin cyclones was developed from the tropics-midlatitude interaction between synoptic systems in these two latitudinal zones. Formations of these cyclones were a result of drastic spinups of the two closed vortices (within the monsoon shear flow) following the surge of monsoon westerlies, which coincided with those of easterlies of the cold surge-like flow, and the cross-equatorial flow originating from easterlies between the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high and the Southern Hemisphere shear flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationships between short-term convective mode evolution, the orientations of vertical shear and mean wind vectors with respect to the initiating synoptic boundary, the motion of the boundary, and the role of forcing for ascent. The dominant mode of storms (linear, mixed mode, and discrete) was noted 3 h after convective initiation along cold fronts, drylines, or prefrontal troughs. Various shear and mean wind vector orientations relative to the boundary were calculated near the time of initiation. Results indicate a statistical correlation between storm mode at 3 h, the normal components of cloud-layer and deep-layer shear vectors, the boundary-relative mean cloud-layer wind vector, and the type of initiating boundary. Thunderstorms, most of which were initially discrete, tended to evolve more quickly into lines or mixed modes when the normal components of the shear vectors and boundary-relative mean cloud-layer wind vectors were small. There was a tendency for storms to remain discrete for larger normal shear and mean wind components. Smaller normal components of mean cloud-layer wind were associated with a greater likelihood that storms would remain within the zone of linear forcing along the boundary for longer time periods, thereby increasing the potential for upscale linear growth. The residence time of storms along the boundary is also dependent on the speed of the boundary. It was found that the boundary-relative normal component of the mean cloud-layer wind better discriminates between mode types than does simply the ground-relative normal component. The influence of mesoscale forcing for ascent and type of boundary on mode evolution was also investigated. As expected, it was found that the magnitude and nature of the forcing play a role in how storms evolve. For instance, strong linear low-level convergence often contributes to rapid upscale linear growth, especially if the boundary motion relative to the mean cloud-layer wind prevents storms from moving away from the boundary shortly after initiation. In summary, results from this study indicate that, for storms initiated along a synoptic boundary, convective mode evolution is modulated primarily by the residence time of storms within the zone of linear forcing, the nature and magnitude of linear forcing, and secondarily by the normal component of the cloud-layer shear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This observational study investigates statistical and synoptic-dynamic relationships between regime transitions, defined as a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) index change from at least a 1 standard deviation anomaly to at least a 1 standard deviation anomaly of opposite sign within 7 days, and cool-season (November-April) northeastern U.S. (NE) precipitation. A statistical analysis is performed of daily cool-season NE precipitation during all NAO and PNA transitions for 1948-2003, and a composite analysis and case study of a major cool-season NE precipitation event occurring during a positive-to-negative NAO transition are conducted. Datasets used are the 0.25° NCEP Unified Precipitation Dataset, the 2.5° NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and the 1.125° 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Results of the statistical analysis suggest that cool-season NE precipitation tends to be enhanced during positive-to-negative NAO and negative-to-positive PNA transitions, and suppressed during negative-to-positive NAO and positive-to-negative PNA transitions. Of the four types of regime transitions, only the positive-to-negative NAO transition is associated with substantially more frequent major cool-season NE precipitation events compared to climatology. Results of the composite analysis and case study indicate that a surface cyclone and cyclonic wave breaking associated with the major NE precipitation event can help produce a high-latitude blocking pattern over the North Atlantic characteristic of a negative NAO pattern via thermal advection, potential vorticity transport, and diabatic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A multi-component satellite remote sensing program is required to track the response of the world''s oceans, lakes and rivers to climate change. Central to this endeavor is the ability to detect the motions of internal waves, swell waves and currents and hence follow energy transport and exchange. However, the present methods of monitoring the motions of water bodies from space, such as those based on altimetry or gravity measurements, are geared mostly toward applications on large spatial scales, whereas the capacity to map the fine details of hydrospheric flows is limited. This paper describes a satellite-based method of detecting wave motion and surface currents at high (in principle metric) resolution that can be applied under specific circumstances in the confined environs of narrow sea straits, lakes and rivers and that compliments the use of other high-spatial resolution techniques such as those based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The Along-Track Stereo Sun Glitter (ATSSG) technique makes use of images of water bodies that are separated in time by roughly 1min and are gathered in the forward-, nadir- and backward-looking directions by space-borne optical sensors performing along-track observations. When sensor viewing geometries lead to the presence of Sun glitter in these images, surface slicks, internal waves, swell waves and other phenomena become highlighted through the surface roughness changes they induce, since these in turn modulate the reflected glitter radiance. Measurement of the differential displacements between congruent sections of the surface roughness signatures present within image pairs of the stereoscopic sequence then enables internal wave or swell wave motions to be determined, while surface currents can be deduced if “passive” tracers of the flow in the form of surface roughness structures (such as slicks) are present. The application of the ATSSG technique described herein makes use of data acquired at a spatial resolution of 2.5m by the Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) to provide the first along-track fine-scale synoptic mapping of the surface motions of individual components within a large group of internal waves and to generate supporting surface-current measurements. The PRISM data we employ were acquired to the south of the Lombok Strait (Indonesia), where highly energetic internal-wave growth takes place and where through-flow surface-current data, of the type derived by the ATSSG technique, can be of value in climate studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to clarify variability in wind energy over a long-term period of 30 years, an investigation was carried out on Jeju Island in South Korea, which has complex terrain. The selected areas for this study were Jeju, Seogwipo and Seongsan, which have wind data for 30 years from 1978 to 2007. The long-term wind data measured from automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) of meteorological observatories was analyzed in accordance with inter-annual, annual and diurnal time scales. Wind variations in various time scales were quantified by both the coefficient of variation and the range of variation. As a result, the yearly average wind speed tended to slightly decrease at the Jeju site, while the other two sites have random trends. The regional deviation for wind variations was significant on Jeju Island, which may result from its complex terrain. It was found that when wind data is measured and analyzed over a longer-term period, more reliable results can be obtained. Besides these, a statistically meaningful result will be presented in this paper. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As a part of ABC-EAREX2005 (Atmospheric Brown Cloud-East Asia Regional Experiment 2005), particle number size distributions, gaseous species, and meteorological parameters were measured at Gosan Superstation (33.17°N, 126.10°E, 70m ASL) on Jeju Island in South Korea from March 13 to 30, 2005. Four particle formation and growth events that occurred on 14, 19, 25, and 30 March were discussed in detail. They took place on a synoptic scale under a high pressure system with intervals of 5–6days. New particle formation and growth processes were very sensitive to the level of precursor gases and preexisting particles. SO2 was likely to be the dominant precursor gas. Vertical mixing also played a key role by diluting preexisting particles. The fastest growth event occurred on 25 March with the entrainment of free tropospheric air, which must have been influenced by an anthropogenic plume. The particle growth rates ranged from 1.97 to 5.81nmh− 1 and the condensation sink varied between 1.5∙10− 3 and 8.4∙10− 2 s− 1. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]