151. Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
- Author
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McKay, David Armstrong, Staal, Arie, Abrams, Jesse, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Sakschewski, Boris, Loriani, Sina, Fetzer, Ingo, Cornell, Sarah, Rockström, Johan, Lenton, Timothy, McKay, David Armstrong, Staal, Arie, Abrams, Jesse, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Sakschewski, Boris, Loriani, Sina, Fetzer, Ingo, Cornell, Sarah, Rockström, Johan, and Lenton, Timothy
- Abstract
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a forcing threshold, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’ tipping elements and regional ‘impact’ tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several more tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2-3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. In further work we use these estimates to test the potential for and impact of tipping cascades in response to global warming scenarios using a stylised model. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
- Published
- 2022