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Mineral magnetic and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) measurements made on the sediments from Lake Ely, Pennsylvania reveal the presence of magnetotactic bacteria magnetofossils. Saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) data from a 1.25 m long piston core taken from the deepest part of the lake show a large intensity decrease at depths between 30 and 75 cm in the sediment column most likely the result of reductive diagenesis. Modeling of isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) acquisition data indicates the presence of biogenic soft (BS) and biogenic hard (BH) magnetosome coercivity components, even at depths in the core greatly affected by reductive diagenesis. First-order reversal curve distribution diagrams for two samples support this interpretation. Modeling of the FMR data also indicates the presence of the BS and BH magnetosome coercivity components, but the relative importance of the two components is opposite to that seen for the IRM and ARM acquisition modeling. A correlation between SIRM variations and local rainfall recorded over the past 70 years suggests that magnetofossil concentrations recorded paleo-rainfall variations in the most recent lake sediments. Multi-taper method spectral analysis of SIRM variations in the piston core, tied to time by varve counting from 1600 common era (CE) to 1128 before CE, show centennial scale periodicities similar to those observed in spectral analysis of a 230 year long historical rainfall record for the northeastern US reconstructed to Philadelphia, PA. This result indicates that enough magnetofossils can survive reductive diagenesis to retain a record of paleorainfall variations, suggesting that they can be a powerful paleoclimate proxy.

[1] To test a hypothesized faster-than-global sea level acceleration along the mid-Atlantic United States, I construct a Gaussian process model that decomposes tide gauge data into short-term variability and longer-term trends, and into globally coherent, regionally coherent, and local components. While tide gauge records indicate a faster-than-global increase in the rate of mid-Atlantic U.S. sea level rise beginning ∼1975, this acceleration could reflect either the start of a long-term trend or ocean dynamic variability. The acceleration will need to continue for ∼2 decades before the rate of increase of the sea level difference between the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S. can be judged as very likely unprecedented by 20th century standards. However, the difference is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Gulf Stream North Wall indices, all of which are currently within the range of past variability.

Costing out the effects of climate change Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England. Science , this issue p. 1362 ; see also p. 1330

Sea-level and ice-sheet databases have driven numerous advances in understanding the Earth system. We describe the challenges and offer best strategies that can be adopted to build self-consistent and standardised databases of geological and geochemical information used to archive palaeo-sea-levels and palaeo-ice-sheets. There are three phases in the development of a database: (i) measurement, (ii) interpretation, and (iii) database creation. Measurement should include the objective description of the position and age of a sample, description of associated geological features, and quantification of uncertainties. Interpretation of the sample may have a subjective component, but it should always include uncertainties and alternative or contrasting interpretations, with any exclusion of existing interpretations requiring a full justification. During the creation of a database, an approach based on accessibility, transparency, trust, availability, continuity, completeness, and communication of content (ATTAC3) must be adopted. It is essential to consider the community that creates and benefits from a database. We conclude that funding agencies should not only consider the creation of original data in specific research-question-oriented projects, but also include the possibility of using part of the funding for IT-related and database creation tasks, which are essential to guarantee accessibility and maintenance of the collected data.

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. Published version

The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic 'tipping points' and large economic shocks, frequently called 'catastrophes'. The use of the phrase 'tipping points' in this context can be misleading. In popular and social scientific discourse, 'tipping points' involve abrupt state changes. For some climatic 'tipping points,' the commitment to a state change may occur abruptly, but the change itself may be rate-limited and take centuries or longer to realize. Additionally, the connection between climatic 'tipping points' and economic losses is tenuous, though emerging empirical and process-model-based tools provide pathways for investigating it. We propose terminology to clarify the distinction between 'tipping points' in the popular sense, the critical thresholds exhibited by climatic and social 'tipping elements,' and 'economic shocks'. The last may be associated with tipping elements, gradual climate change, or non-climatic triggers. We illustrate our proposed distinctions by surveying the literature on climatic tipping elements, climatically sensitive social tipping elements, and climate-economic shocks, and we propose a research agenda to advance the integrated assessment of all three., 43 pages, 2 figure, 2 tables. Published in Earth's Future

During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these—Meltwater Pulse 1A—occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea-level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1, 2, 3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4, 5, 6, 7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1, 8, 9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven metres, whereas most reconstructions10 from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea-level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 m (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11, 12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that with current geologic constraints, the method applied here is unable to support or refute the possibility of a significant Antarctic contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A.

Eustasy and glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment are the main drivers of regional variability of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records. These regional variations in Holocene RSL influence the preservation of coastal wetland stratigraphic records of prehistoric earthquakes along subduction zone coasts. The length and completeness of prehistoric earthquake records is intrinsically linked to the accommodation space provided by gradually rising (

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and itsmore » own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential “catastrophic” impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.” The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.« less

A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions not only lowers expected damages from climate change but also reduces the risk of catastrophic impacts. However, estimates of the social cost of carbon, which measures the marginal value of carbon dioxide abatement, often do not capture this risk reduction benefit. Risk-averse individuals are willing to pay a risk premium, an additional amount beyond the difference in expected damages, to reduce risks. The authors review methods used and estimates obtained for calculating a risk premium to be included in the social cost of carbon. While more research is needed in this area, work to date suggests a positive, and potentially substantial, risk premium on the social cost of carbon is warranted.

Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic “water-hosing” experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, we find that geographic SE patterns should be challenging but possible to detect above dynamic variability. At higher melt rates, we find that DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects will dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds ~20 cm equivalent sea level.

To limit mean global warming to 2 °C, a goal supported by more than 100 countries, it will likely be necessary to reduce emissions not only of greenhouse gases but also of air pollutants with high radiative forcing (RF), particularly black carbon (BC). Although several recent research papers have attempted to quantify the effects of BC on climate, not all these analyses have incorporated all the mechanisms that contribute to its RF (including the effects of BC on cloud albedo, cloud coverage, and snow and ice albedo, and the optical consequences of aerosol mixing) and have reported their results in different units and with different ranges of uncertainty. Here we attempt to reconcile their results and present them in uniform units that include the same forcing factors. We use the best estimate of effective RF obtained from these results to analyze the benefits of mitigating BC emissions for achieving a specific equilibrium temperature target. For a 500 ppm CO2e (3.1 W m-2) effective RF target in 2100, which would offer about a 50% chance of limiting equilibrium warming to 2.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures, we estimate that failing to reduce carbonaceous aerosol emissions from contained combustion would require CO2emission cuts about 8 years (range of 1–15 years) earlier than would be necessary with full mitigation of these emissions.

With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming. Sea levels at the last interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, were higher and polar temperatures up to 5 °C warmer than today, so the period is seen as a partial analogue for what could happen in the event of anthropogenic warming. Kopp et al. assemble a global database of local sea level rise indicators and use a statistical treatment to estimate global sea level rise during the last interglacial. They find that global sea level was probably 8 to 9.4 metres above present levels, with the rate of sea level rise exceeding 50 cm per century. This suggests that today's ice sheets would be vulnerable to relatively low levels of global warming. Sea levels during the last interglacial stage (about 125 kyr ago) are known to have been higher than today, and may serve as a partial analogue for anthropogenic warming scenarios. However, because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. An extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach are now used to estimate global sea level during the last interglacial.

Magnetotactic bacteria, which most commonly live within the oxic-anoxic transition zone (OATZ) of aquatic environments, produce intracellular crystals of magnetic minerals, specifically magnetite or greigite. The crystals cause the bacteria to orient themselves passively with respect to the geomagnetic field and thereby facilitate the bacteria’s search for optimal conditions within the sharp chemical gradients of the OATZ. The bacteria may also gain energy from the redox cycling of their crystals. Because magnetotactic bacteria benefit from their magnetic moments, natural selection has promoted the development of traits that increase the efficiency with which the intracellular crystals impart magnetic moments to cells. These traits also allow crystals produced by magnetotactic bacteria (called magnetofossils when preserved in sediments) to be distinguished from abiogenic particles and particles produced as extracellular byproducts of bacterial metabolism. Magnetofossils are recognizable based on their narrow size and shape distributions, distinctive morphologies with blunt crystal edges, chain arrangement, chemical purity, and crystallographic perfection. This article presents a scheme for rating magnetofossil robustness based on these traits. The magnetofossil record extends robustly to the Cretaceous and with lesser certainty to the late Archean. Because magnetotactic bacteria predominantly live in the OATZ, the abundance and character of their fossils can reflect environmental changes that alter the chemical stratification of sediments and the water column. The magnetofossil record therefore provides an underutilized archive of paleoenvironmental information. Several studies have demonstrated a relationship between magnetofossil abundance and glacial/interglacial cycles, likely mediated by changes in pore water oxygen levels. More speculatively, a better-developed magnetofossil record might provide constraints on the long-term evolution of marine redox stratification. More work in modern and ancient settings is necessary to explicate the mechanisms linking the abundance and character of magnetofossils to ancient biogeochemistry.

Reanalysis of Earth rotation observations reconciles them with globally averaged sea-level change in the 20th century., In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth’s rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth’s rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth’s rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth’s rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.

Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, two such methods, surrogate/model mixed ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo pattern/residual (MCPR), are developed and then are applied to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the twenty-first century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce likely (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections that are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s interpretation of an equal-weighted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble but also provide full PDFs that include tail estimates. For example, both methods indicate that, under “Representative Concentration Pathway” 8.5, there is a 5% chance that the contiguous United States could warm by at least 8°C between 1981–2010 and 2080–99. Variance decomposition of SMME and MCPR projections indicates that background variability dominates uncertainty in the early twenty-first century whereas forcing-driven changes emerge in the second half of the twenty-first century. By separating CMIP5 projections into unforced and forced components using linear regression, these methods generate estimates of unforced variability from existing CMIP5 projections without requiring the computationally expensive use of multiple realizations of a single GCM.

Tectonic displacement contaminates estimates of peak eustatic sea level (and, equivalently, minimum continental ice volumes) determined from the elevation of Quaternary interglacial highstand markers. For sites at which a stratigraphic or geomorphic marker of peak Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e sea level exists, the standard approach for estimating local tectonic uplift (or subsidence) rates takes the difference between the elevation of the local highstand marker and a reference MIS 5e eustatic value, commonly chosen as +6 m, and divides by the age of the marker. The resulting rate is then applied to correct the elevation of all other local observed sea-level markers for tectonic displacement, including peak highstands of different ages (e.g., MIS 5a, MIS 5c and MIS 11), under the assumption that the tectonic rate remained constant over those periods. This approach introduces two potentially significant errors. First, the peak eustatic value adopted for MIS 5e in most previous studies (i.e., +6 m) is likely incorrect. Second, local peak sea level during MIS 5e is characterized by significant departures from eustasy due to glacial isostatic adjustment in response to both successive glacial–interglacial cycles and excess polar ice-sheet melt relative to present day values. We use numerical models of glacial isostatic adjustment that incorporate both of these effects to quantify the plausible range of the combined error and show that, even at sites far from melting ice sheets, local peak sea level during MIS 5e may depart from eustasy by 2–4 m, or more. We also demonstrate that the associated error in the estimated tectonic rates can significantly alter previous estimates of peak eustatic sea level during Quaternary highstands, notably those associated with earlier interglacials (e.g., MIS 11).

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records exhibit spatial and temporal variability that arises mainly from the interaction of eustatic (land ice volume and thermal expansion) and isostatic (glacio- and hydro-) factors. We fit RSL histories from near-, intermediate-, and far-field locations with noisy-input Gaussian process models to assess rates of RSL change. Records from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland, Canada, Sweden, and Scotland) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacio-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as -69 �� 9 m/ka. Intermediate-field regions (e.g., mid-Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States, Netherlands, Southern France, St. Croix) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of isostatic and eustatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 �� 1 m/ka) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing (between 8 and 4 ka) and magnitude (between

A database of published and new relative sea-level (RSL) data for the past 16 ka constrains the sea-level histories of the Pacific coast of central North America (southern British Columbia to central California). Our reevaluation of the stratigraphic context and radiocarbon age of sea-level indicators from geological and archaeological investigations yields 600 sea-level index points and 241 sea-level limiting points. We subdivided the database into 12 regions based on the availability of data, tectonic setting, and distance from the former Cordilleran ice sheet. Most index (95%) and limiting points (54%) are

Magnetotactic bacteria produce intracellular crystals of magnetite or greigite, the properties of which have been shaped by evolution to maximize the magnetic moment per atom of iron. Intracellular bacterial magnetite therefore possesses traits amenable to detection by physical techniques: typically, narrow size and shape distributions, single-domain size and arrangement in linear chains, and often crystal elongation. Past strategies for searching for bacterial magnetofossils using physical techniques have focused on identifying samples containing significant amounts of single domain magnetite or with narrow coercivity distributions. Searching for additional of traits would, however, increase the likelihood that candidate magnetofossils are truly of biological origin. Ferromagnetic resonance spectroscopy (FMR) is in theory capable of detecting the distinctive magnetic anisotropy produced by chain arrangement and crystal elongation. Here we present analyses of intact and lysed magnetotactic bacteria, dilutions of synthetic magnetite, and sedimentary samples of modern carbonates from the Great Bahama Bank, Oligocene–Miocene deep-sea muds from the South Atlantic, and Pleistocene lacustrine deposits from Mono Basin, California. We demonstrate that FMR can distinguish between intact bacterial magnetite chains, collapsed chains, and linear strings of magnetite formed by physical processes. We also show that sediments in which the magnetization is likely carried by bacterial magnetite have FMR spectra resembling those of intact or altered bacterial magnetite chains.

Magnetotactic bacteria precipitate intracellular crystals of single-domain magnetite (Fe3O4) and/or greigite (Fe3S4), which have often been implicated in carrying the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of freshwater and marine sediments. In vivo, the magnetic crystals are usually aligned in chains such that their moments add together, generating net cellular moments high enough to rotate the cells passively to align with the geomagnetic field. A magnetostatic/biophysical analysis demonstrates that this arrangement is out of dynamic equilibrium and would collapse spontaneously without a support mechanism. Past rock magnetic analyses of shallow water marine carbonates suggest that partial collapse does occur during diagenesis and dolomitization. To calibrate this effect we induced magnetosome chain collapse in Magnetospirillum magnetotacticum strain MS-1 by progressive sonification and treatment with detergents and monitored the changes with rock magnetic analysis and TEM. Although it has been speculated that the cell wall and associated membrane structures act to prevent magnetosome chain collapse, our data indicate that magnetosome linearity persists long after cells are disrupted. This is consistent with prior observations that in some magnetotcocci the magnetosome chains pass through the cell interior, precluding continuous contact with the cell wall and implying additional support structures exist in some species. Using TEM tomographic reconstructions prepared with a magnetic technique that prevents chain collapse, we examined the three dimensional ultrastructure of magnetosomes without the problem of post-mortem magnetosome motion. This method revealed the presence of an intracellular organic sheath beyond that of actin-like filaments reported recently that follows the chain of magnetosomes, which we postulate evolved to hold the crystals in place and enhances their ability to preserve NRM in sediments. As the genomes of two magnetotactic bacteria contain several apparent homologues of known eukaryotic cytoskeletal proteins, natural selection for magnetotaxis may have played a role in the evolution of precursors to the eukaryotic cytoskeleton. The presence of this sheath is also consistent with the observation of electron translucent material associated with putative magnetofossil chains in ALH84001.

Although biomarker, trace element, and isotopic evidence have been used to claim that oxygenic photosynthesis evolved by 2.8 giga-annum before present (Ga) and perhaps as early as 3.7 Ga, a skeptical examination raises considerable doubt about the presence of oxygen producers at these times. Geological features suggestive of oxygen, such as red beds, lateritic paleosols, and the return of sedimentary sulfate deposits after a approximate to 900-million year hiatus, occur shortly before the approximate to 2.3-2.2 Ga Makganyene "snowball Earth" (global glaciation). The massive deposition of Mn, which has a high redox potential, practically requires the presence of environmental oxygen after the snowball. New age constraints from the Transvaal Supergroup of South Africa suggest that all three glaciations in the Huronian Supergroup of Canada predate the Snowball event. A simple cyanobacterial growth model incorporating the range of C, Fe, and P fluxes expected during a partial glaciation in an anoxic world with high-Fe oceans indicates that oxygenic photosynthesis could have destroyed a methane greenhouse and triggered a snowball event on timescales as short as 1 million years. As the geological evidence requiring oxygen does not appear during the Pongola glaciation at 2.9 Ga or during the Huronian glaciations, we argue that oxygenic cyanobacteria evolved and radiated shortly before the Makganyene snowball.

Magnetite is both a common inorganic rock-forming mineral and a biogenic product formed by a diversity of organisms. Magnetotactic bacteria produce intracellular magnetites of high purity and crystallinity (magnetosomes) arranged in linear chains of crystals. Magnetosomes and their fossils (magnetofossils) have been identified using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in sediments dating back to ∼510–570 Ma, and possibly in 4 Ga carbonates in Martian meteorite ALH84001. We present the results from two rock magnetic analyses—the low-temperature Moskowitz test and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR)—applied to dozens of samples of magnetite and other materials. The magnetites in these samples are of diverse composition, size, shape, and origin: biologically induced (extracellular), biologically controlled (magnetosomes and chiton teeth), magnetofossil, synthetic, and natural inorganic. We confirm that the Moskowitz test is a distinctive indicator for magnetotactic bacteria and provide the first direct experimental evidence that this is accomplished via sensitivity to the magnetosome chain structure. We also demonstrate that the FMR spectra of four different strains of magnetotactic bacteria and a magnetofossil-bearing carbonate have a form distinct from all other samples measured in this study. We suggest that this signature also results from the magnetosomes' unique arrangement in chains. Because FMR can rapidly identify samples with large fractions of intact, isolated magnetosome chains, it could be a powerful tool for identifying magnetofossils in sediments.

Nature 517, 481–484 (2015); doi:10.1038/nature14093 In Fig. 1 of this Letter, which compares our results (black line and shading) to the tide gauge data (red lines), part of the data shown in Fig. 1b (red line) is missing. In Fig. 1 of this Corrigendum we show the corrected panel. The original Letter has not been corrected.

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last $\mathord{\sim}$11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest ($\mathord{\sim}$7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0--1800 CE), RSL rise ($\mathord{\sim}$0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to $\mathord{\sim}$0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability $P = 0.95$) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 $\pm$ 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely ($P = 0.90$) to rise by 42--132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely ($P > 0.90$) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current `1-in-100 year' flood is expected at Wilmington in $\mathord{\sim}$30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100., 13 main text pages, 4 figures, 4 supplemental pages. Published in Climatic Change

Costs of carbon emissions are being underestimated, but current estimates are still valuable for setting mitigation policy, say Richard L. Revesz and colleagues.

Of the two nanocrystal (magnetosome) compositions biosynthesized by magnetotactic bacteria (MTB), the magnetic properties of magnetite magnetosomes have been extensively studied using widely available cultures, while those of greigite magnetosomes remain poorly known. Here we have collected uncultivated magnetite- and greigite-producing MTB to determine their magnetic coercivity distribution and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) spectra and to assess the MTB-associated iron flux. We find that compared with magnetite-producing MTB cultures, FMR spectra of uncultivated MTB are characterized by a wider empirical parameter range, thus complicating the use of FMR for fossilized magnetosome (magnetofossil) detection. Furthermore, in stark contrast to putative Neogene greigite magnetofossil records, the coercivity distributions for greigite-producing MTB are fundamentally left-skewed with a lower median. Lastly, a comparison between the MTB-associated iron flux in the investigated estuary and the pyritic-Fe flux in the Black Sea suggests MTB play an important, but heretofore overlooked role in euxinic marine system iron cycle.

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage (ca. 130���115 ka) provides a relatively recent example of a world with both poles characterized by greater-than- Holocene temperatures similar to those expected later in this century under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Previous analyses inferred that LIG mean global sea level (GSL) peaked 6���9 m higher than today (Kopp et al. 2009; Dutton & Lambeck 2012). Here, we extend our earlier work to perform a probabilistic assessment of sea level variability within the LIG highstand. Using the terminology for probability employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, we find it extremely likely (95% probability) that the paleo-sea level record allows resolution of at least two intra-LIG sea level peaks and likely (67% probability) that the magnitude of low-to-high swings exceeded 4 m. Moreover, it is likely that there was a period during the LIG in which GSL rose at a 1000-year average rate exceeding 3 m/ky, but unlikely (33% probability) that the rate exceeded 7 m/ky and extremely unlikely (5% probability) that it exceeded 11 m/ky. These rate estimates can provide insight into rates of Greenland and/or Antarctic melt under climate conditions partially analogous to those expected in the twenty- first century.