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Novel data streams (NDS), such as web search data or social media updates, hold promise for enhancing the capabilities of public health surveillance. In this paper, we outline a conceptual framework for integrating NDS into current public health surveillance. Our approach focuses on two key questions: What are the opportunities for using NDS and what are the minimal tests of validity and utility that must be applied when using NDS? Identifying these opportunities will necessitate the involvement of public health authorities and an appreciation of the diversity of objectives and scales across agencies at different levels (local, state, national, international). We present the case that clearly articulating surveillance objectives and systematically evaluating NDS and comparing the performance of NDS to existing surveillance data and alternative NDS data is critical and has not sufficiently been addressed in many applications of NDS currently in the literature.

Investigates time series dynamics and explores the density-dependent structure of blowfly, Lucilia cuprina, populations using nonparametric additive modeling. Larva-to-adult survival rate and adult survival rate of cadmium populations compared with control populations; Nonlinear dependence of the survival from larva to adult on larval density; Effect of increased larval density on larval survival.

East Asia is as a principal hotspot for emerging zoonotic infections. Understanding the likely pathways for their emergence and spread requires knowledge on human-human and human-animal contacts, but such studies are rare. We used self-completed and interviewer-completed contact diaries to quantify patterns of these contacts for 965 individuals in 2017/2018 in a high-income densely-populated area of China, Shanghai City. Interviewer-completed diaries recorded more social contacts (19.3 vs. 18.0) and longer social contact duration (35.0 vs. 29.1 hours) than self-reporting. Strong age-assortativity was observed in all age groups especially among young participants (aged 7–20) and middle aged participants (25–55 years). 17.7% of participants reported touching animals (15.3% (pets), 0.0% (poultry) and 0.1% (livestock)). Human-human contact was very frequent but contact with animals (especially poultry) was rare although associated with frequent human-human contact. Hence, this densely populated area is more likely to act as an accelerator for human-human spread but less likely to be at the source of a zoonosis outbreak. We also propose that telephone interview at the end of reporting day is a potential improvement of the design of future contact surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that Malawi had successfully eliminated lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. Understanding clinical case distributions at a national and sub-national level is important, so essential care packages can be provided to individuals living with LF symptoms. This study aimed to develop a national database and map of LF clinical case numbers across Malawi using geostatistical modelling approaches, programme-identified clinical cases, antigenaemia prevalence and climate information. Methodology: LF clinical cases identified through programme house-to-house surveys across 90 sub-district administrative boundaries (Traditional Authority (TA)) and antigenaemia prevalence from 57 sampled villages in Malawi were used in a two-step geostatistical modelling process to predict LF clinical cases across all TAs of the country. First, we modelled antigenaemia prevalence in relation to climate covariates to predict nationwide antigenaemia prevalence. Second, we modelled clinical cases for unmapped TAs based on our antigenaemia prevalence spatial estimates. Principle findings: The models estimated 20,938 (95% CrI 18,091 to 24,071) clinical cases in unmapped TAs (70.3%) in addition to the 8,856 (29.7%), programme-identified cases in mapped TAs. In total, the overall national number of LF clinical cases was estimated to be 29,794 (95% CrI 26,957 to 32,927). The antigenaemia prevalence and clinical case mapping and modelling found the highest burden of disease in Chikwawa and Nsanje districts in the Southern Region and Karonga district in the Northern Region of the country. Conclusions: The models presented in this study have facilitated the development of the first national LF clinical case database and map in Malawi, the first endemic country in sub-Saharan Africa. It highlights the value of using existing LF antigenaemia prevalence and clinical case data together with modelling approaches to produce estimates that may be used for the WHO dossier requirements, to help target limited resources and implement long-term health strategies. Author summary: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a disfiguring and painful Neglected Tropical Disease, transmitted by mosquitoes, and impairs affected individual's mental wellbeing, social participation, and ability to work. The two most common clinical manifestations are hydrocoele (scrotal swelling) and lymphoedema (swelling of the limbs). Estimates of LF clinical case numbers are required to provide national and local care needs assessment, and for elimination and surveillance purposes. Clinical case prevalence is currently not readily available or is unknown across many sub-Saharan African countries, however Malawi is unique as the LF Programme has conducted extensive house-to-house patient mapping activities across one third of the country. We used this clinical data in combination with measurements of LF infection prevalence and high-resolution climate information, to develop geostatistical models, which estimate the number of clinical cases in unmapped areas. This led to the development of a national database and map of clinical case estimates that will help the Malawi LF elimination programme to optimize limited resources, target morbidity management and disability prevention, and improve quality of life of the people affected by this disabling and disfiguring disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some directly transmitted human pathogens, such as influenza and measles, generate sustained exponential growth in incidence and have a high peak incidence consistent with the rapid depletion of susceptible individuals. Many do not. While a prolonged exponential phase typically arises in traditional disease-dynamic models, current quantitative descriptions of nonstandard epidemic profiles are either abstract, phenomenological, or rely on highly skewed offspring distributions in network models. Here, we create large socio-spatial networks to represent contact behavior using human population-density data, a previously developed fitting algorithm, and gravity-like mobility kernels. We define a basic reproductive number R0 for this system, analogous to that used for compartmental models. Controlling for R0, we then explore networks with a household– workplace structure in which between-household contacts can be formed with varying degrees of spatial correlation, determined by a single parameter from the gravity-like kernel. By varying this single parameter and simulating epidemic spread, we are able to identify how more frequent local movement can lead to strong spatial correlation and, thus, induce subexponential outbreak dynamics with lower, later epidemic peaks. Also, the ratio of peak height to final size was much smaller when movement was highly spatially correlated. We investigate the topological properties of our networks via a generalized clustering coefficient that extends beyond immediate neighborhoods, identifying very strong correlations between fourth-order clustering and nonstandard epidemic dynamics. Our results motivate the observation of both incidence and socio-spatial human behavior during epidemics that exhibit nonstandard incidence patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background We investigated endemic respiratory virus circulation patterns in Malawi, where no lockdown was imposed, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Within a prospective household cohort in urban and rural Malawi, adult participants provided upper respiratory tract (URT) samples at 4 time points between February 2021 and April 2022. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and other endemic respiratory viruses. Results 1626 URT samples from 945 participants in 542 households were included. Overall, 7.6% (n = 123) samples were PCR- positive for > 1 respiratory virus; SARS-CoV-2 (4.4%) and rhinovirus (2.0%) were most common. No influenza A virus was detected. Influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were rare. Higher virus positivity were detected in the rural setting and at earlier time points. Coinfections were infrequent. Conclusions Endemic respiratory viruses circulated in the community in Malawi during the pandemic, though influenza and RSV were rarely detected. Distinct differences in virus positivity and demographics were observed between urban and rural cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This study aimed to determine the key mental health indicators affecting people affected by lymphatic filariasis (LF) lymphoedema by assessing the prevalence of depressive symptoms and quality of life (QOL), identifying associated sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, and evaluating the impact of an enhanced self-care intervention for lymphoedema management. Methods A prospective cohort study of adults with filarial lymphoedema from two regions of Malawi was conducted over six months in 2021. Depressive symptoms and QOL were assessed using Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and LF Specific QOL Questionnaire, respectively, at baseline (pre-intervention), 3- and 6-months (postintervention). Beta regression analysis identified risk factors, and assessed the impact of the intervention. Results Three hundred eleven affected individuals were surveyed with 23% (95% CI 18%–29%) reporting mild/moderate depressive symptoms and 31% (95% CI 26%–37%) reporting moderately low/low QOL. Higher depressive symptom scores were associated with high frequency of acute filarial attack episodes. Individuals with higher depressive symptoms (Adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.93–0.93) and lower QOL (AOR 0.98, 0.98–0.98) showed greatest improvement in mental health indicators over 3-months but was not sustained to the same level at 6-months. Conclusions Sustained morbidity management and psychological support is recommended for affected persons to ensure long-term positive mental health and clinical outcomes. Contexte Cette étude vise à déterminer les principaux indicateurs de santé mentale affectant les personnes atteintes de lymphœdème dû à la filariose lymphatique (FL) en évaluant la prévalence des symptômes dépressifs et la qualité de vie (QV), en identifiant les facteurs de risque sociodémographiques et cliniques associés, et en évaluant l'impact d'une intervention améliorée d'autosoins pour la gestion du lymphœdème. Méthodes Une étude de cohorte prospective d'adultes atteints de lymphoedème filaire dans deux régions du Malawi a été menée pendant six mois en 2021. Les symptômes dépressifs et la qualité de vie ont été évalués à l'aide du questionnaire sur la santé des patients (PHQ-9) et du questionnaire sur la qualité de vie spécifique au lymphœdème, respectivement, au début de l'étude (avant l'intervention), et à 3 puis 6 mois après l'intervention. Une analyse de régression beta a permis d'identifier les facteurs de risque et d'évaluer l'impact de l'intervention. Résultats Trois cent onze personnes affectées ont été interrogées, dont 23% (95% CI 18%–29%) ont déclaré des symptômes dépressifs légers/modérés et 31% (95% CI 26%–37%) ont déclaré une qualité de vie modérément faible/faible. Des scores élevés de symptômes dépressifs ont été associés à une fréquence élevée d'épisodes de crises filariennes aiguës. Les personnes présentant des symptômes dépressifs plus élevés (rapport de cotes ajusté (RCA) 0.93, IC à 95 % 0.93–0.93) et une qualité de vie plus faible (RCA 0.98, 0.98–0.98) ont montré la plus grande amélioration des indicateurs de santé mentale au cours des trois mois, mais cette amélioration ne s'est pas maintenue au même niveau au cours des six mois suivants. Conclusion Gestion de la morbidité et soutien psychologique sont des éléments clés pour garantir une santé mentale et des résultats cliniques satisfaisants de personnes atteintes sur le long terme. Antecedentes Este estudio tuvo como objetivo determinar los indicadores clave de salud mental que afectan a las personas afectadas por linfedema por filariasis linfática (FL) mediante la evaluación de la prevalencia de síntomas depresivos y calidad de vida (CdV), la identificación de factores de riesgo sociodemográficos y clínicos asociados, y la evaluación del impacto de una intervención de autocuidado mejorada para el manejo del linfedema. Métodos Se realizó un estudio prospectivo de cohortes de adultos con linfedema filarial de dos regiones de Malawi durante seis meses en 2021. Los síntomas depresivos y la calidad de vida se evaluaron mediante el Cuestionario de Salud del Paciente (PHQ-9) y el Cuestionario de Calidad de Vida específico para el LF Cuestionario, respectivamente, al inicio (preintervención) y a los 3 y 6 meses (posintervención). El análisis de regresión beta identificó los factores de riesgo y evaluó el impacto de la intervención. Resultados Se encuestó a 311 afectados, de los cuales el 23% (IC 95%, 18%–29%) presentaba síntomas depresivos leves/moderados y el 31% (IC 95%, 26%–37%) una CdV moderadamente baja/baja CdV. Las puntuaciones más altas de síntomas depresivos se asociaron con una alta frecuencia de episodios de ataques agudos de filarias. Los individuos con mayores síntomas depresivos (Odds Ratios Ajustados [ORA] 0.93; IC 95%: 0.93–0.93) y menor CdV (ORA 0.98; 0.98–0.98) mostraron la mayor mejoría en los indicadores de salud mental a los 3 meses, pero no se mantuvo al mismo nivel a los 6 meses. Conclusiones Se recomienda el manejo sostenido de la morbilidad y el apoyo psicológico a las personas afectadas para garantizar resultados clínicos y de salud mental positivos a largo plazo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This was a longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in an urban & rural cohort in Malawi. • Post-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was very high (rural: 89%; urban: 94%). • Most SARS-CoV-2 infections were subclinical; few required healthcare attendance. • Seroconversion risk varied by location & age across the successive infection waves. • Hybrid immunity was associated with higher seroprevalence and antibody titers. This study aimed to investigate the changing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and associated health and sociodemographic factors in Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022. In total, four 3-monthly serosurveys were conducted within a longitudinal population-based cohort in rural Karonga District and urban Lilongwe, testing for SARS-CoV-2 S1 immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Population seroprevalence was estimated in all and unvaccinated participants. Bayesian mixed-effects logistic models estimated the odds of seropositivity in the first survey, and of seroconversion between surveys, adjusting for age, sex, occupation, location, and assay sensitivity/specificity. Of the 2005 participants (Karonga, n = 1005; Lilongwe, n = 1000), 55.8% were female and median age was 22.7 years. Between Surveys (SVY) 1 and 4, population-weighted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 26.3% to 89.2% and 46.4% to 93.9% in Karonga and Lilongwe, respectively. At SVY4, seroprevalence did not differ by COVID-19 vaccination status in adults, except for those aged 30+ years in Karonga (unvaccinated: 87.4%, 95% credible interval 79.3-93.0%; two doses: 98.1%, 94.8-99.5%). Location and age were associated with seroconversion risk. Individuals with hybrid immunity had higher SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody titers, than those infected. High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence combined with low morbidity and mortality indicate that universal vaccination is unnecessary at this stage of the pandemic, supporting change in national policy to target at-risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal, community-based sampling is important for understanding prevalence and transmission of respiratory pathogens. Using a minimally invasive sampling method, the FAMILY Micro study monitored the oral, nasal and hand microbiota of families for 6 months. Here, we explore participant experiences and opinions. A mixed methods approach was utilised. A quantitative questionnaire was completed after every sampling timepoint to report levels of discomfort and pain, as well as time taken to collect samples. Participants were also invited to discuss their experiences in a qualitative structured exit interview. We received questionnaires from 36 families. Most adults and children >5y experienced no pain (94% and 70%) and little discomfort (73% and 47% no discomfort) regardless of sample type, whereas children ≤5y experienced variable levels of pain and discomfort (48% no pain but 14% hurts even more, whole lot or worst; 38% no discomfort but 33% moderate, severe, or extreme discomfort). The time taken for saliva and hand sampling decreased over the study. We conducted interviews with 24 families. Families found the sampling method straightforward, and adults and children >5y preferred nasal sampling using a synthetic absorptive matrix over nasopharyngeal swabs. It remained challenging for families to fit sampling into their busy schedules. Adequate fridge/freezer space and regular sample pick-ups were found to be important factors for feasibility. Messaging apps proved extremely effective for engaging with participants. Our findings provide key information to inform the design of future studies, specifically that self-sampling at home using minimally invasive procedures is feasible in a family context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is an urgent global call for health systems to strengthen access to quality sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn and adolescent health, particularly for the most vulnerable. Professional midwives with enabling environments are identified as an important solution. However, a multitude of barriers prevent midwives from fully realizing their potential. Effective interventions to address known barriers and enable midwives and quality sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn and adolescent health are less well known. This review intends to evaluate the literature on (1) introducing midwives in low- and middle-income countries, and (2) on mentoring as a facilitator to enable midwives and those in midwifery roles to improve sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn and adolescent health service quality within health systems. Methods: An integrative systematic literature review was conducted, guided by the Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome framework. Articles were reviewed for quality and relevance using the Gough weight-of-evidence framework and themes were identified. A master table categorized articles by Gough score, methodology, country of focus, topic areas, themes, classification of midwives, and mentorship model. The World Health Organization health systems building block framework was applied for data extraction and analysis. Results: Fifty-three articles were included: 13 were rated as high, 36 as medium, and four as low according to the Gough criteria. Studies that focused on midwives primarily highlighted human resources, governance, and service delivery while those focused on mentoring were more likely to highlight quality services, lifesaving commodities, and health information systems. Midwives whose pre-service education met global standards were found to have more efficacy. The most effective mentoring packages were comprehensive, integrated into existing systems, and involved managers. Conclusions: Effectively changing sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn and adolescent health systems is complex. Globally standard midwives and a comprehensive mentoring package show effectiveness in improving service quality and utilization. Trial registration: The protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022367657). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses.Methods: We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over two respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households.Results: Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19y) displayed ILI symptoms than infected adults (relative risk 3.0, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.5, 6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI 6, 13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI 5, 10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences.Conclusion: Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study compared government sub-district hospitals in Bangladesh without globally standard midwives, with those with recently introduced midwives, both with and without facility mentoring, to see if the introduction of midwives was associated with improved quality and availability of maternity care. In addition, it analysed the experiences of the newly deployed midwives and the maternity staff and managers that they joined.Methods: This was a mixed-methods observational study. The six busiest hospitals from three pre-existing groups of government sub-district hospitals were studied; those with no midwives, those with midwives, and those with midwives and mentoring. For the quantitative component, observations of facility readiness (n = 18), and eight quality maternity care practices (n = 641) were carried out using three separate tools. Willing maternity staff (n = 237) also completed a survey on their knowledge, perceptions, and use of the maternity care interventions. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to identify differences between the hospital types. The qualitative component comprised six focus groups and 18 interviews involving midwives, other maternity staff, and managers from the three hospital types. Data were analysed using an inductive cyclical process of immersion and iteration to draw out themes. The quantitative and qualitative methods complemented each other and were used synergistically to identify the study's insights.Results: Quantitative analysis found that, of the eight quality practices, hospitals with midwives but no mentors were significantly more likely than hospitals without midwives to use three: upright labour (94% vs. 63%; OR = 22.57, p = 0.001), delayed cord clamping (88% vs. 11%; OR = 140.67, p < 0.001), skin-to-skin (94% vs. 13%; OR = 91.21, p < 0.001). Hospitals with mentors were significantly more likely to use five: ANC card (84% vs. 52%; OR = 3.29, p = 0.002), partograph (97% vs. 14%; OR = 309.42, p = 0.002), upright positioning for labour (95% vs. 63%; OR = 1850, p < 0.001), delayed cord clamping (98% vs. 11%; OR = 3400, p = 0.003), and skin-to-skin contact following birth (93% vs. 13%; OR = 70.89, p < 0.001) Qualitative analysis identified overall acceptance of midwives and the transition to improved quality care; this was stronger with facility mentoring. The most resistance to quality care was expressed in facilities without midwives. In facilities with midwives and mentoring, midwives felt proud, and maternity staff conveyed the greatest acceptance of midwives.Conclusion: Facilities with professional midwives had better availability and quality of maternity care across multiple components of the health system. Care quality further improved with facility mentors who created enabling environments, and facilitated supportive relationships between existing maternity staff and managers and the newly deployed midwives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pandemics have the potential to incur significant health and economic impacts, and can reach a large number of countries from their origin within weeks. Early identification and containment of a newly emerged pandemic within the source country is key for minimising global impact. To identify a country's potential to control and contain a pathogen with pandemic potential, we compared the quality of a country's healthcare system against its global airline connectivity. Healthcare development was determined using three multi-factorial indices, while detailed airline passenger data was used to identify the global connectivity of all countries. Proximities of countries to a putative 'Worst Case Scenario' (extreme high-connectivity and low-healthcare development) were calculated. We found a positive relationship between a country's connectivity and healthcare metrics. We also identified countries that potentially pose the greatest risk for pandemic dissemination, notably Dominican Republic, India and Pakistan. China and Mexico, both sources of recent influenza and coronavirus pandemics were also identified as among the highest risk countries. Collectively, lower-middle and upper-middle income countries represented the greatest risk, while high income countries represented the lowest risk. Our analysis represents an alternative approach to identify countries where increased within-country disease surveillance and pandemic preparedness may benefit global health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial antibiotic resistance is an important global health threat and the interfaces of antibiotic resistance between humans, animals and the environment are complex. We aimed to determine the associations and overtime trends of antibiotic resistance between humans, animals and water sources from the same area and time and estimate attribution of the other sources to cases of human antibiotic resistance. A total of 125 children (aged 1–3 years old) had stool samples analysed for antibiotic-resistant bacteria at seven time points over two years, with simultaneous collection of samples of animal stools and water sources in a rural Indian community. Newey–West regression models were used to calculate temporal associations, the source with the most statistically significant relationships was household drinking water. This is supported by use of SourceR attribution modelling, that estimated the mean attribution of cases of antibiotic resistance in the children from animals, household drinking water and wastewater, at each time point and location, to be 12.6% (95% CI 4.4–20.9%), 12.1% (CI 3.4–20.7%) and 10.3% (CI 3.2–17.3%) respectively. This underlines the importance of the 'one health' concept and requires further research. Also, most of the significant trends over time were negative, suggesting a possible generalised improvement locally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparisons of the utility and accuracy of methods for measuring social interactions relevant to disease transmission are rare. To increase the evidence base supporting specific methods to measure social interaction, we compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from a cohort of schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. Although the number and type of contacts recorded by each participant differed between the two methods, we found good correspondence between the two methods in aggregate measures of age-specific interactions. Fewer, but longer, contacts were reported in surveys, relative to the generally short proximal interactions captured by wearable sensors. When adjusted for expectations of proportionate mixing, though, the two methods produced highly similar, assortative age-mixing matrices. These aggregate mixing matrices, when used in simulation, resulted in similar estimates of risk of infection by age. While proximity sensors and survey methods may not be interchangeable for capturing individual contacts, they can generate highly correlated data on age-specific mixing patterns relevant to the dynamics of respiratory virus transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria transmission is influenced by a complex interplay of factors including climate, socio-economic, environmental factors and interventions. Malaria control efforts across Africa have shown a mixed impact. Climate driven factors may play an increasing role with climate change. Efforts to strengthen routine facility-based monthly malaria data collection across Africa create an increasingly valuable data source to interpret burden trends and monitor control programme progress. A better understanding of the association with other climatic and non-climatic drivers of malaria incidence over time and space may help guide and interpret the impact of interventions. Methods: Routine monthly paediatric outpatient clinical malaria case data were compiled from 27 districts in Malawi between 2004 and 2017, and analysed in combination with data on climatic, environmental, socio-economic and interventional factors and district level population estimates. A spatio-temporal generalized linear mixed model was fitted using Bayesian inference, in order to quantify the strength of association of the various risk factors with district-level variation in clinical malaria rates in Malawi, and visualized using maps. Results: Between 2004 and 2017 reported childhood clinical malaria case rates showed a slight increase, from 50 to 53 cases per 1000 population, with considerable variation across the country between climatic zones. Climatic and environmental factors, including average monthly air temperature and rainfall anomalies, normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and RDT use for diagnosis showed a significant relationship with malaria incidence. Temperature in the current month and in each of the 3 months prior showed a significant relationship with the disease incidence unlike rainfall anomaly which was associated with malaria incidence at only three months prior. Estimated risk maps show relatively high risk along the lake and Shire valley regions of Malawi. Conclusion: The modelling approach can identify locations likely to have unusually high or low risk of malaria incidence across Malawi, and distinguishes between contributions to risk that can be explained by measured risk-factors and unexplained residual spatial variation. Also, spatial statistical methods applied to readily available routine data provides an alternative information source that can supplement survey data in policy development and implementation to direct surveillance and intervention efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study was to characterize the epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) in southern Malawi., Methods: We tested for HCoVs 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on upper respiratory specimens from asymptomatic controls and individuals of all ages recruited through severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, and a prospective influenza-like illness (ILI) observational study between 2011 and 2017. We modeled the probability of having a positive PCR for each HCoV using negative binomial models, and calculated pathogen-attributable fractions (PAFs)., Results: Overall, 8.8% (539/6107) of specimens were positive for ≥1 HCoV. OC43 was the most frequently detected HCoV (3.1% [191/6107]). NL63 was more frequently detected in ILI patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 9.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.25-28.30]), while 229E (aIRR, 8.99 [95% CI, 1.81-44.70]) was more frequent in SARI patients than asymptomatic controls. In adults, 229E and OC43 were associated with SARI (PAF, 86.5% and 89.4%, respectively), while NL63 was associated with ILI (PAF, 85.1%). The prevalence of HCoVs was similar between children with SARI and controls. All HCoVs had bimodal peaks but distinct seasonality., Conclusions: OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV in acute respiratory illness of all ages. Individual HCoVs had distinct seasonality that differed from temperate settings., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. J. M. R. has received funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) (MR/V038613/1). A. H. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship (097464) and receives funding from UKRI, the Medical Research Council, British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, Wellcome Trust, and the Medical Research Foundation, unrelated to this work. S. A. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship (099962). All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Nosocomial infections threaten patient safety, and were widely reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective hospital infection control requires a detailed understanding of the role of different transmission pathways, yet these are poorly quantified. Using patient and staff data from a large UK hospital, we demonstrate a method to infer unobserved epidemiological event times efficiently and disentangle the infectious pressure dynamics by ward. A stochastic individual-level, continuous-time state-transition model was constructed to model transmission of SARS-CoV-2, incorporating a dynamic staff-patient contact network as time-varying parameters. A Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate transmission rate parameters associated with each possible source of infection, and the unobserved infection and recovery times. We found that the total infectious pressure exerted on an individual in a ward varied over time, as did the primary source of transmission. There was marked heterogeneity between wards; each ward experienced unique infectious pressure over time. Hospital infection control should consider the role of between-ward movement of staff as a key infectious source of nosocomial infection for SARS-CoV-2. With further development, this method could be implemented routinely for real-time monitoring of nosocomial transmission and to evaluate interventions.

Objective: To determine and identify distance patterns in the movements of medical students and junior doctors between their training locations., Design: A retrospective cohort study of UK medical students from 2002 to 2015 (UKMED data)., Setting: All UK medical schools, foundations and specialty training organisation., Participants: All UK medical students from 2002 to 2015, for a total of 97 932 participants., Outcome Measures: Individual movements and number of movements by county of students from family home to medical school training, from medical school to foundation training and from foundation to specialty training., Methods: Leslie matrix, principal components analysis, Gini coefficient, χ 2 test, generalised linear models and variable selection methods were employed to explore the different facets of students' and junior doctors' movements from the family home to medical school and for the full pathway (from family home to specialty training)., Results: The majority of the movements between the different stages of the full pathway were restricted to a distance of up to 50 km; although the proportion of movements changed from year-to-year, with longer movements during 2007-2008. At the individual level, ethnicity, socioeconomic class of the parent(s) and the deprivation score of the family home region were found to be the most important factors associated with the length of the movements from the family home to medical school. Similar results were found when movements were aggregated at the county level, with the addition of factors such as gender and qualification at entry (to medical school) being statistically associated with the number of new entrant students moving between counties., Conclusion: Our findings show that while future doctors do not move far from their family home or training location, this pattern is not homogeneous over time. Distances are influenced by demographics, socioeconomic status and deprivation. These results may contribute in designing interventions aimed at solving the chronic problems of maldistribution and underdoctoring in the UK., Competing Interests: Competing interests: CM is a medical director and director of education and standards at the General Medical Council. Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the General Medical Council., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: We investigated endemic respiratory virus circulation patterns in Malawi, where no lockdown was imposed, during the COVID-19 pandemic., Methods: Within a prospective household cohort in urban and rural Malawi, adult participants provided upper respiratory tract (URT) samples at 4 time points between February 2021 and April 2022. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and other endemic respiratory viruses., Results: 1626 URT samples from 945 participants in 542 households were included. Overall, 7.6% (n = 123) samples were PCR- positive for >1 respiratory virus; SARS-CoV-2 (4.4%) and rhinovirus (2.0%) were most common. No influenza A virus was detected. Influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were rare. Higher virus positivity were detected in the rural setting and at earlier time points. Coinfections were infrequent., Conclusions: Endemic respiratory viruses circulated in the community in Malawi during the pandemic, though influenza and RSV were rarely detected. Distinct differences in virus positivity and demographics were observed between urban and rural cohorts., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. E. V. has received funding from the Medical Research Council and lecture fees from Janssen. A. H. has received funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), the Medical Research Council, British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, the Wellcome Trust, and Medical Research Foundation unrelated to this work. J. M. R. and C. J. have received funding from UKRI (MR/V038613/1). All other authors report no potential conflicts., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics 1,2 , but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To quantify contact patterns of UK home delivery drivers and identify protective measures adopted during the pandemic., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey to measure the interactions of 170 UK delivery drivers during a working shift between 7 December 2020 and 31 March 2021., Results: Delivery drivers had a mean number of 71.6 (95% CI 61.0 to 84.1) customer contacts per shift and 15.0 (95% CI 11.2 to 19.2) depot contacts per shift. Maintaining physical distancing with customers was more common than at delivery depots. Prolonged contact (more than 5 min) with customers was reported by 5.4% of drivers on their last shift. We found 3.0% of drivers had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 since the start of the pandemic and 16.8% of drivers had self-isolated due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19. In addition, 5.3% (95% CI 2.3% to 10.2%) of participants reported having worked while ill with COVID-19 symptoms, or with a member of their household having a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19., Conclusion: Delivery drivers had a large number of face-to-face customer and depot contacts per shift compared with other working adults during this time. However, transmission risk may be curtailed as contact with customers was of short duration. Most drivers were unable to maintain physical distance with customers and at depots at all times. Usage of protective items such as face masks and hand sanitiser was widespread., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)