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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Belief Functions, BELIEF 2022, held in Paris, France, in October 2022.The theory of belief functions is now well established as a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, and has well-understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility, and imprecise probability theories. It has been applied in diverse areas such as machine learning, information fusion, and pattern recognition. The 29 full papers presented in this book were carefully selected and reviewed from 31 submissions. The papers cover a wide range on theoretical aspects on mathematical foundations, statistical inference as well as on applications in various areas including classification, clustering, data fusion, image processing, and much more.

Kniha se věnuje pravděpodobnosti a statistice, zabývá se vývojem těchto disciplín, a zejména důsledky pro proces jejich výuky. Zkoumá různá zavedení pravděpodobnosti v historii, seznamuje se základními fázemi popisu neurčitosti, od popisu jisté šance výhry přes klasické pojetí až po axiomatický systém pravděpodobnosti. Publikace prezentuje vedle matematického zavedení různé filozofické interpretace pravděpodobnosti. Vedle klasické a geometrické definice pravděpodobnosti představuje čtyři hlavní směry v pojetí pravděpodobnosti – logickou, subjektivní, četnostní a propenzitní pravděpodobnost. Zavedení pravděpodobnosti úzce souvisí s otázkou, jestli náhodu vnímáme ontologicky (tedy jako něco, co je obsaženo zásadně a bytostně ve fyzikální podstatě existence světa), nebo epistemologicky (tedy jako vztah kolektivního či individuálního vědomí k realitě). V souvislosti s nezávislostí a bayesovskými přístupy je rozebírán pojem podmíněné pravděpodobnosti, zejména její vztah ke kauzalitě. Předností knihy je, že teorie pravděpodobnosti a statistiky nevnímá pouze jako matematické disciplíny, ale poukazuje také na významné aplikace ve fyzice, biologii, medicíně či demografii.

This monograph studies a series of mathematical models of the evolution of a population under mutation and selection. Its starting point is the quasispecies equation, a general non-linear equation which describes the mutation-selection equilibrium in Manfred Eigen's famous quasispecies model. A detailed analysis of this equation is given under the assumptions of finite genotype space, sharp peak landscape, and class-dependent fitness landscapes. Different probabilistic representation formulae are derived for its solution, involving classical combinatorial quantities like Stirling and Euler numbers.It is shown how quasispecies and error threshold phenomena emerge in finite population models, and full mathematical proofs are provided in the case of the Wright–Fisher model. Along the way, exact formulas are obtained for the quasispecies distribution in the long chain regime, on the sharp peak landscape and on class-dependent fitness landscapes.Finally, several other classical population models are analyzed, with a focus on their dynamical behavior and their links to the quasispecies equation. This book will be of interest to mathematicians and theoretical ecologists/biologists working with finite population models.

This book discusses diverse concepts and notions – and their applications – concerning probability and random variables at the intermediate to advanced level. It explains basic concepts and results in a clearer and more complete manner than the extant literature. In addition to a range of concepts and notions concerning probability and random variables, the coverage includes a number of key advanced concepts in mathematics. Readers will also find unique results on e.g. the explicit general formula of joint moments and the expected values of nonlinear functions for normal random vectors. In addition, interesting applications of the step and impulse functions in discussions on random vectors are presented. Thanks to a wealth of examples and a total of 330 practice problems of varying difficulty, readers will have the opportunity to significantly expand their knowledge and skills. The book is rounded out by an extensive index, allowing readers to quickly and easily find what they are looking for. Given its scope, the book will appeal to all readers with a basic grasp of probability and random variables who are looking to go one step further. It also offers a valuable reference guide for experienced scholars and professionals, helping them review and refine their expertise.

Bayesian ideas have recently been applied across such diverse fields as philosophy, statistics, economics, psychology, artificial intelligence, and legal theory. Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology examines epistemologists'use of Bayesian probability mathematics to represent degrees of belief. Michael G. Titelbaum provides an accessible introduction to the key concepts and principles of the Bayesian formalism, enabling the reader both to follow epistemological debates and to see broader implications Volume 1 begins by motivating the use of degrees of belief in epistemology. It then introduces, explains, and applies the five core Bayesian normative rules: Kolmogorov's three probability axioms, the Ratio Formula for conditional degrees of belief, and Conditionalization for updating attitudes over time. Finally, it discusses further normative rules (such as the Principal Principle, or indifference principles) that have been proposed to supplement or replace the core five. Volume 2 gives arguments for the five core rules introduced in Volume 1, then considers challenges to Bayesian epistemology. It begins by detailing Bayesianism's successful applications to confirmation and decision theory. Then it describes three types of arguments for Bayesian rules, based on representation theorems, Dutch Books, and accuracy measures. Finally, it takes on objections to the Bayesian approach and alternative formalisms, including the statistical approaches of frequentism and likelihoodism.

Bayesian ideas have recently been applied across such diverse fields as philosophy, statistics, economics, psychology, artificial intelligence, and legal theory. Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology examines epistemologists'use of Bayesian probability mathematics to represent degrees of belief. Michael G. Titelbaum provides an accessible introduction to the key concepts and principles of the Bayesian formalism, enabling the reader both to follow epistemological debates and to see broader implications Volume 1 begins by motivating the use of degrees of belief in epistemology. It then introduces, explains, and applies the five core Bayesian normative rules: Kolmogorov's three probability axioms, the Ratio Formula for conditional degrees of belief, and Conditionalization for updating attitudes over time. Finally, it discusses further normative rules (such as the Principal Principle, or indifference principles) that have been proposed to supplement or replace the core five. Volume 2 gives arguments for the five core rules introduced in Volume 1, then considers challenges to Bayesian epistemology. It begins by detailing Bayesianism's successful applications to confirmation and decision theory. Then it describes three types of arguments for Bayesian rules, based on representation theorems, Dutch Books, and accuracy measures. Finally, it takes on objections to the Bayesian approach and alternative formalisms, including the statistical approaches of frequentism and likelihoodism.

A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory.This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author's 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.

Bei allen Erkenntnissen, die im COVID-Prozess erfahren wurden, bleibt eine wesentliche erhalten:'Das Virus bleibt ein ständiger Begleiter'. Im Gegensatz zu regelmäßig auftretenden Infektionsprozessen nimmt der einer COVID–Infektion einen andersartigen Verlauf ein. Dieser ist gekennzeichnet durch eine Dynamik, die abweichend von herkömmlichen, bekannten Prozessen dadurch abweicht, dass die Verursacher ihre Identität wechseln und entsprechende Varianten entwickeln. Daher ist ein vorsorgliches Infektionsmanagement - unterstützt durch statistisch-probabilistische Analysen mit PSIR - wichtig für eine vorsorgliches Vermeidungs-Management der Ressourcen und der Infrastruktur für die'Wellen vor der Welle'.

This textbook explores two distinct stochastic processes that evolve at random: weakly stationary processes and discrete parameter Markov processes. Building from simple examples, the authors focus on developing context and intuition before formalizing the theory of each topic. This inviting approach illuminates the key ideas and computations in the proofs, forming an ideal basis for further study. After recapping the essentials from Fourier analysis, the book begins with an introduction to the spectral representation of a stationary process. Topics in ergodic theory follow, including Birkhoff's Ergodic Theorem and an introduction to dynamical systems. From here, the Markov property is assumed and the theory of discrete parameter Markov processes is explored on a general state space. Chapters cover a variety of topics, including birth–death chains, hitting probabilities and absorption, the representation of Markov processes as iterates of random maps, and large deviation theory for Markov processes. A chapter on geometric rates of convergence to equilibrium includes a splitting condition that captures the recurrence structure of certain iterated maps in a novel way. A selection of special topics concludes the book, including applications of large deviation theory, the FKG inequalities, coupling methods, and the Kalman filter. Featuring many short chapters and a modular design, this textbook offers an in-depth study of stationary and discrete-time Markov processes. Students and instructors alike will appreciate the accessible, example-driven approach and engaging exercises throughout. A single, graduate-level course in probability is assumed.

This textbook introduces readers to the fundamental notions of modern probability theory. The only prerequisite is a working knowledge in real analysis. Highlighting the connections between martingales and Markov chains on one hand, and Brownian motion and harmonic functions on the other, this book provides an introduction to the rich interplay between probability and other areas of analysis.Arranged into three parts, the book begins with a rigorous treatment of measure theory, with applications to probability in mind. The second part of the book focuses on the basic concepts of probability theory such as random variables, independence, conditional expectation, and the different types of convergence of random variables. In the third part, in which all chapters can be read independently, the reader will encounter three important classes of stochastic processes: discrete-time martingales, countable state-space Markov chains, and Brownian motion. Each chapter ends with a selectionof illuminating exercises of varying difficulty. Some basic facts from functional analysis, in particular on Hilbert and Banach spaces, are included in the appendix. Measure Theory, Probability, and Stochastic Processes is an ideal text for readers seeking a thorough understanding of basic probability theory. Students interested in learning more about Brownian motion, and other continuous-time stochastic processes, may continue reading the author's more advanced textbook in the same series (GTM 274).

This book puts forward a new mathematical theory to study chaotic phenomenon. The uniform theory is established on the basis of two elementary concept of circle and externally tangent square in mathematics. The author studies the uniformity of a finite set of points distributed in space by uniform theory. This book also illustrates that uniform theory performs better than other indices such as entropy and Lyapunov exponent in chaos measurement by numerous examples. This book develops a new mathematical tool for studying chaos so it will be appealing to students and researchers interested in theory of chaos. It also has potential applications in various fields such as Engineering, Forestry and Ecology.

Wie kommt der Zufall in unsere Welt? Und warum ist so vieles nicht vorhersehbar?Verständlich, spannend und amüsant erzählend entführt uns der Autor in die Welt der Chemie, Quantenphysik und Biologie. Die Astronomie und Philosophie streifend, werden wir Zeugen einer lohnenden Entdeckungsreise. Dabei entwickelt er auf der Basis der Naturgesetze eine vollkommen neue Sicht auf den Zufall. Hierbei spielt das allgegenwärtige Nicht-Gleichgewicht eine überaus entscheidende Rolle, weil es die komplexen Strukturen in unserer Welt erzeugt. Abschließend präsentiert er auf dieser Grundlage eine gleichermaßen einfache wie bestechende Hypothese zum Wesen der Zeit.Dieses Sachbuch gibt einen tiefen Einblick in die Faszination der Forschung, in die quälende Suche nach grundlegendem Verständnis und das Ringen um wissenschaftliche Erkenntnis.

This book provides analytic tools to describe local and global behavior of solutions to Itô-stochastic differential equations with non-degenerate Sobolev diffusion coefficients and locally integrable drift. Regularity theory of partial differential equations is applied to construct such solutions and to obtain strong Feller properties, irreducibility, Krylov-type estimates, moment inequalities, various types of non-explosion criteria, and long time behavior, e.g., transience, recurrence, and convergence to stationarity. The approach is based on the realization of the transition semigroup associated with the solution of a stochastic differential equation as a strongly continuous semigroup in the Lp-space with respect to a weight that plays the role of a sub-stationary or stationary density. This way we obtain in particular a rigorous functional analytic description of the generator of the solution of a stochastic differential equation and its full domain. The existence of such a weight is shown under broad assumptions on the coefficients. A remarkable fact is that although the weight may not be unique, many important results are independent of it. Given such a weight and semigroup, one can construct and further analyze in detail a weak solution to the stochastic differential equation combining variational techniques, regularity theory for partial differential equations, potential, and generalized Dirichlet form theory. Under classical-like or various other criteria for non-explosion we obtain as one of our main applications the existence of a pathwise unique and strong solution with an infinite lifetime. These results substantially supplement the classical case of locally Lipschitz or monotone coefficients.We further treat other types of uniqueness and non-uniqueness questions, such as uniqueness and non-uniqueness of the mentioned weights and uniqueness in law, in a certain sense, of the solution.

This book grew out of the Random Transformations and Invariance in Stochastic Dynamics conference held in Verona from the 25th to the 28th of March 2019 in honour of Sergio Albeverio. It presents the new area of studies concerning invariance and symmetry properties of finite and infinite dimensional stochastic differential equations.This area constitutes a natural, much needed, extension of the theory of classical ordinary and partial differential equations, where the reduction theory based on symmetry and invariance of such classical equations has historically proved to be very important both for theoretical and numerical studies and has given rise to important applications.The purpose of the present book is to present the state of the art of the studies on stochastic systems from this point of view, present some of the underlying fundamental ideas and methods involved, and to outline the main lines for future developments. The main focus is on bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic approaches, with the goal of contributing to the elaboration of a unified theory that will have a great impact both from the theoretical point of view and the point of view of applications. The reader is a mathematician or a theoretical physicist. The main discipline is stochastic analysis with profound ideas coming from Mathematical Physics and Lie's Group Geometry. While the audience consists essentially of academicians, the reader can also be a practitioner with Ph.D., who is interested in efficient stochastic modelling.

This book collects papers presented at the International Conference on Mathematical Modelling and Computational Intelligence Techniques (ICMMCIT) 2021, held at the Department of Mathematics, The Gandhigram Rural Institute (Deemed to be University), Gandhigram, Tamil Nadu, India, from 10–12 February 2021. Significant contributions from renowned researchers from fields of applied analysis, mathematical modelling and computing techniques have been received for this conference. Chapters emphasize on the research of computational nature focusing on new algorithms, their analysis and numerical results, as well as applications in physical, biological, social, and behavioural sciences. The accepted papers are organized in topical sections as mathematical modelling, image processing, control theory, graphs and networks, and inventory control.

This graduate textbook provides an alternative to discrete event simulation. It describes how to formulate discrete event systems, how to convert them into Markov chains, and how to calculate their transient and equilibrium probabilities. The most appropriate methods for finding these probabilities are described in some detail, and templates for efficient algorithms are provided. These algorithms can be executed on any laptop, even in cases where the Markov chain has hundreds of thousands of states. This book features the probabilistic interpretation of Gaussian elimination, a concept that unifies many of the topics covered, such as embedded Markov chains and matrix analytic methods.The material provided should aid practitioners significantly to solve their problems. This book also provides an interesting approach to teaching courses of stochastic processes.

This book is intended to provide graduate students and researchers in graph theory with an overview of the elementary methods of graph Ramsey theory. It is especially targeted towards graduate students in extremal graph theory, graph Ramsey theory, and related fields, as the included contents allow the text to be used in seminars. It is structured in thirteen chapters which are application-focused and largely independent, enabling readers to target specific topics and information to focus their study. The first chapter includes a true beginner's overview of elementary examples in graph Ramsey theory mainly using combinatorial methods. The following chapters progress through topics including the probabilistic methods, algebraic construction, regularity method, but that's not all. Many related interesting topics are also included in this book, such as the disproof for a conjecture of Borsuk on geometry, intersecting hypergraphs, Turán numbers and communication channels, etc.

This volume presents extensive research devoted to a broad spectrum of mathematics with emphasis on interdisciplinary aspects of Optimization and Probability. Chapters also emphasize applications to Data Science, a timely field with a high impact in our modern society. The discussion presents modern, state-of-the-art, research results and advances in areas including non-convex optimization, decentralized distributed convex optimization, topics on surrogate-based reduced dimension global optimization in process systems engineering, the projection of a point onto a convex set, optimal sampling for learning sparse approximations in high dimensions, the split feasibility problem, higher order embeddings, codifferentials and quasidifferentials of the expectation of nonsmooth random integrands, adjoint circuit chains associated with a random walk, analysis of the trade-off between sample size and precision in truncated ordinary least squares, spatial deep learning, efficient location-based tracking for IoT devices using compressive sensing and machine learning techniques, and nonsmooth mathematical programs with vanishing constraints in Banach spaces.The book is a valuable source for graduate students as well as researchers working on Optimization, Probability and their various interconnections with a variety of other areas.Chapter 12 is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Dieses Buch stellt statistischen Verfahren und Kennzahlen vor, um Unsicherheiten in der industriellen Produktion zu analysieren und einzuschätzen. Der Autor legt hierbei einen besonderen Fokus auf die Fallstricke der einzelnen Verfahren. Für alle im Buch vorgestellten Verfahren werden neben den mathematischen Formeln auch Auswerteblätter und Nomogrammen vorgestellt. Auf diese Weise können Anwender im Problemfall eine schnelle Bewertung der Ausgangssituation vorzunehmen.Die vorgestellten Verfahren sollen den Leser in die Lage versetzen, die Hauptquellen für Unsicherheit in Prozessen zu ermitteln. Der Einsatz statistischer Verfahren zur Definition und Wirksamkeitsprüfung von Verbesserungsmaßnahmen ist ein Kernthema dieses Buches.Das Vorgehen wird anhand praktischer Beispiele und Handlungsempfehlungen dargelegt.

This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology. In the second edition the material has been significantly expanded, particularly within the context of nonequilibrium and self-organizing systems. Given the amount of additional material, the book has been divided into two volumes, with volume I mainly covering molecular processes and volume II focusing on cellular processes. A wide range of biological topics are covered in the new edition, including stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, molecular motors, stochastic gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, epigenetics, normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastically-gated diffusion, active intracellular transport, signal transduction, cell sensing, bacterial chemotaxis, intracellular pattern formation, cell polarization, cell mechanics, biological polymers and membranes, nuclear structure and dynamics, biological condensates, molecular aggregation and nucleation, cellular length control, cell mitosis, cell motility, cell adhesion, cytoneme-based morphogenesis, bacterial growth, and quorum sensing. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic and nonequilibrium processes – Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, stochastic calculus, master equations and jump Markov processes, birth-death processes, Poisson processes, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, queuing and renewal theory, narrow capture and escape, extreme statistics, search processes and stochastic resetting, exclusion processes, WKB methods, large deviation theory, path integrals, martingales and branching processes, numerical methods, linear response theory, phase separation, fluctuation-dissipation theorems, age-structured models, and statistical field theory. This text is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers working in mathematical biology, statistical and biological physicists, and applied mathematicians interested in stochastic modeling. Applied probabilists should also find it of interest. It provides significant background material in applied mathematics and statistical physics, and introduces concepts in stochastic and nonequilibrium processes via motivating biological applications. The book is highly illustrated and contains a large number of examples and exercises that further develop the models and ideas in the body of the text. It is based on a course that the author has taught at the University of Utah for many years.

Our finances, politics, media, opportunities, information, shopping and knowledge production are mediated through algorithms and their statistical approaches to knowledge; increasingly, these methods form the organizational backbone of contemporary capitalism. Revolutionary Mathematics traces the revolution in statistics and probability that has quietly underwritten the explosion of machine learning, big data and predictive algorithms that now decide many aspects of our lives. Exploring shifts in the philosophical understanding of probability in the late twentieth century, Joque shows how this was not merely a technical change but a wholesale philosophical transformation in the production of knowledge and the extraction of value. This book provides a new and unique perspective on the dangers of allowing artificial intelligence and big data to manage society. It is essential reading for those who want to understand the underlying ideological and philosophical changes that have fueled the rise of algorithms and convinced so many to blindly trust their outputs, reshaping our current political and economic situation.

This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.

This book serves as an advanced text for a graduate course on stochastic algorithms for graduate students in probability and statistics, engineering, economics and machine learning. This second edition gives a comprehensive treatment of stochastic approximation algorithms based on the “ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach” which analyses the algorithm in terms of a limiting ODE. It has a streamlined treatment of the classical convergence analysis and includes several recent developments such as concentration bounds, avoidance of traps, stability tests, distributed and asynchronous schemes, multiple time scales, general noise models, etc., and a category-wise exposition of many important applications. It is also a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in the field.

This book presents in a compact form the program carried out in introductory statistics courses and discusses some essential topics for research activity, such as Monte Carlo simulation techniques, methods of statistical inference, best fit and analysis of laboratory data. All themes are developed starting from fundamentals, highlighting their applicative aspects, up to the detailed description of several cases particularly relevant for technical and scientific research. The text is dedicated to university students in scientific fields and to all researchers who have to solve practical problems by applying data analysis and simulation procedures. The R software is adopted throughout the book, with a rich library of original programs accessible to the readers through a website.

​The volume includes a collection of peer-reviewed contributions from among those presented at the FNE, the main conference organized every two years by the Mexican Statistical Society (AME), and the 2020 AME Virtual Meeting. Statistical research in Latin America is prolific and research networks span both within and outside the region. As much of the work is typically carried out and published in Spanish, a large portion of the interested public is denied access to interesting findings, and the goal of this volume is therefore to provide access to selected works from Mexican collaborators and their international research networks to a wider audience. It may be especially attractive to academics interested in the latest methodological advances, while professionals from other disciplines may also find value in these new tools for data analysis. In 2021, the conference broadly focused on the interdisciplinary aspects of Statistics.

The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

Professor Judea Pearl won the 2011 Turing Award “for fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning.” This book contains the original articles that led to the award, as well as other seminal works, divided into four parts: heuristic search, probabilistic reasoning, causality, first period (1988–2001), and causality, recent period (2002–2020). Each of these parts starts with an introduction written by Judea Pearl. The volume also contains original, contributed articles by leading researchers that analyze, extend, or assess the influence of Pearl's work in different fields: from AI, Machine Learning, and Statistics to Cognitive Science, Philosophy, and the Social Sciences. The first part of the volume includes a biography, a transcript of his Turing Award Lecture, two interviews, and a selected bibliography annotated by him.

This book offers a comprehensive guide to large sample techniques in statistics. With a focus on developing analytical skills and understanding motivation, Large Sample Techniques for Statistics begins with fundamental techniques, and connects theory and applications in engaging ways.The first five chapters review some of the basic techniques, such as the fundamental epsilon-delta arguments, Taylor expansion, different types of convergence, and inequalities. The next five chapters discuss limit theorems in specific situations of observational data. Each of the first ten chapters contains at least one section of case study. The last six chapters are devoted to special areas of applications. This new edition introduces a final chapter dedicated to random matrix theory, as well as expanded treatment of inequalities and mixed effects models. The book's case studies and applications-oriented chapters demonstrate how to use methods developed from large sample theory in real world situations. The book is supplemented by a large number of exercises, giving readers opportunity to practice what they have learned. Appendices provide context for matrix algebra and mathematical statistics. The Second Edition seeks to address new challenges in data science.This text is intended for a wide audience, ranging from senior undergraduate students to researchers with doctorates. A first course in mathematical statistics and a course in calculus are prerequisites..

This book is the second volume of a two-volume monograph devoted to the study of limit and ergodic theorems for regularly and singularly perturbed Markov chains, semi-Markov processes, and multi-alternating regenerative processes with semi-Markov modulation. The second volume presents a complete classification of ergodic theorems for alternating regenerative processes, including more than twenty-five such theorems. The text addresses new asymptotic recurrent algorithms of phase space reduction for multi-alternating regenerative processes modulating by regularly and singularly perturbed finite semi-Markov processes. It also features a new study of super-long, long, and short time ergodic theorems for these processes.The book also contains a comprehensive bibliography of major works in the field. It provides an effective reference for both graduate students as well as theoretical and applied researchers studying stochastic processes and their applications.

The book constitutes an introduction to stochastic calculus, stochastic differential equations and related topics such as Malliavin calculus. On the other hand it focuses on the techniques of stochastic integration and calculus via regularization initiated by the authors. The definitions relies on a smoothing procedure of the integrator process, they generalize the usual Itô and Stratonovich integrals for Brownian motion but the integrator could also not be a semimartingale and the integrand is allowed to be anticipating. The resulting calculus requires a simple formalism: nevertheless it entails pathwise techniques even though it takes into account randomness. It allows connecting different types of pathwise and non pathwise integrals such as Young, fractional, Skorohod integrals, enlargement of filtration and rough paths. The covariation, but also high order variations, play a fundamental role in the calculus via regularization, which can also be applied for irregularintegrators. A large class of Gaussian processes, various generalizations of semimartingales such that Dirichlet and weak Dirichlet processes are revisited. Stochastic calculus via regularization has been successfully used in applications, for instance in robust finance and on modeling vortex filaments in turbulence. The book is addressed to PhD students and researchers in stochastic analysis and applications to various fields.

This book offers an accessible introduction to random walk and diffusion models at a level consistent with the typical background of students in the life sciences. In recent decades these models have become widely used in areas far beyond their traditional origins in physics, for example, in studies of animal behavior, ecology, sociology, sports science, population genetics, public health applications, and human decision making. Developing the main formal concepts, the book provides detailed and intuitive step-by-step explanations, and moves smoothly from simple to more complex models. Finally, in the last chapter, some successful and original applications of random walk and diffusion models in the life and behavioral sciences are illustrated in detail. The treatment of basic techniques and models is consolidated and extended throughout by a set of carefully chosen exercises.

This conference proceeding contains 27 peer-reviewed invited papers from leading experts as well as young researchers all over the world in the related fields that Professor Fukushima has made important contributions to. These 27 papers cover a wide range of topics in probability theory, ranging from Dirichlet form theory, Markov processes, heat kernel estimates, entropy on Wiener spaces, analysis on fractal spaces, random spanning tree and Poissonian loop ensemble, random Riemannian geometry, SLE, space-time partial differential equations of higher order, infinite particle systems, Dyson model, functional inequalities, branching process, to machine learning and Hermitizable problems for complex matrices. Researchers and graduate students interested in these areas will find this book appealing.

This book considers a broad range of areas from decision making methods applied in the contexts of Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM). Intended primarily as an update of the 2015 book Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis, this edited work provides an integration of applied probability and decision making. Within applied probability, it primarily includes decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In decision making, it includes multicriteria decision making/aiding (MCDM/A) methods and optimization models. Within MCDM, in addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to mathematical programming areas are considered, such as multiobjective linear programming, multiobjective nonlinear programming, game theory and negotiations, and multiobjective optimization. Methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. In MCDA, several other methods are considered, such as outranking methods, rough sets and constructive approaches. The book addresses an innovative treatment of decision making in RRM, improving the integration of fundamental concepts from both areas of RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting current research developments in decision making on RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models on practical applications on RRM are discussed and new approaches for overcoming those drawbacks are presented.

This book is not a research monograph about Malliavin calculus with the latest results and the most sophisticated proofs. It does not contain all the results which are known even for the basic subjects which are addressed here. The goal was to give the largest possible variety of proof techniques. For instance, we did not focus on the proof of concentration inequality for functionals of the Brownian motion, as it closely follows the lines of the analog result for Poisson functionals. This book grew from the graduate courses I gave at Paris-Sorbonne and Paris-Saclay universities, during the last few years. It is supposed to be as accessible as possible for students who have knowledge of Itô calculus and some rudiments of functional analysis.

Comment synthétiser et interpréter l'information contenue dans des données économiques et financières? Comment analyser et quantifier la relation entre plusieurs séries? Qu'est-ce qu'une loi de probabilité? Comment estimer un modèle et mettre en oeuvre des tests statistiques?Alliant théorie et pratique, ce manuel met l'accent sur l'acquisition des méthodes et des compétences indispensables à tout étudiant pour réussir sa licence.Il propose :des situations concrètes pour introduire les concepts ;un cours visuel et illustré par de nombreux exemples pour acquérir les connaissances fondamentales en statistique et probabilités ;des conseils méthodologiques et des interviews pour traduire la théorie en pratique et montrer comment la statistique est utilisée par les professionnels ;des éclairages sur les grands auteurs de la discipline ;des exercices progressifs et variés (QCM, problèmes, sujets d'examen) pour s'évaluer et s'entraîner.Les corrigés détaillés des exercices, les tables statistiques et des approfondissements sont disponibles sur www.dunod.com.

The SIR - model supported by a new density and its derivatives receive a statistical data background from frequency distributions, from whose parameter values over the new density distribution a quality-oriented probability of the respective infection process and its future can be concluded. Thus the COVID - management receives a functionally model basis for the preventive control of the components time planning, cost development, quality management and personnel and material employment.

This volume presents a selection of texts that reflects the current research streams in probability, with an interest toward topics such as filtrations, Markov processes and Markov chains as well as large deviations, Stochastic Partial Differential equations, rough paths theory, quantum probabilities and percolation on graphs.The featured contributors are R. L. Karandikar and B. V. Rao, C. Leuridan, M. Vidmar, L. Miclo and P. Patie, A. Bernou, M.-E. Caballero and A. Rouault, J. Dedecker, F. Merlevède and E. Rio, F. Brosset, T. Klein, A. Lagnoux and P. Petit, C. Marinelli and L. Scarpa, C. Castaing, N. Marie and P. Raynaud de Fitte, S. Attal, J. Deschamps and C. Pellegrini, and N. Eisenbaum.

This textbook presents the basics of probability and statistical estimation, with a view to applications. The didactic presentation follows a path of increasing complexity with a constant concern for pedagogy, from the most classical formulas of probability theory to the asymptotics of independent random sequences and an introduction to inferential statistics. The necessary basics on measure theory are included to ensure the book is self-contained. Illustrations are provided from many applied fields, including information theory and reliability theory. Numerous examples and exercises in each chapter, all with solutions, add to the main content of the book.Written in an accessible yet rigorous style, the book is addressed to advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and graduate students in applied mathematics and statistics. It will also appeal to students and researchers in other disciplines, including computer science, engineering, biology, physicsand economics, who are interested in a pragmatic introduction to the probability modeling of random phenomena.

Every financial professional wants and needs an advantage. A firm foundation in advanced mathematics can translate into dramatic advantages to professionals willing to obtain it. Many are not—and that is the advantage these books offer the astute reader.Published under the collective title of Foundations of Quantitative Finance, this set of ten books presents the advanced mathematics finance professionals need to advantage their careers, these books present the theory most do not learn in graduate finance programs, or in most financial mathematics undergraduate and graduate courses.As a high-level industry executive and authoritative instructor, Robert R. Reitano presents the mathematical theories he encountered in nearly three decades working in the financial industry and two decades teaching in highly respected graduate programs.Readers should be quantitatively literate and familiar with the developments in the first book in the set, Foundations of Quantitative Finance Book I: Measure Spaces and Measurable Functions.

This book gives an introduction to discrete-time Markov chains which evolve on a separable metric space. The focus is on the ergodic properties of such chains, i.e., on their long-term statistical behaviour. Among the main topics are existence and uniqueness of invariant probability measures, irreducibility, recurrence, regularizing properties for Markov kernels, and convergence to equilibrium. These concepts are investigated with tools such as Lyapunov functions, petite and small sets, Doeblin and accessible points, coupling, as well as key notions from classical ergodic theory. The theory is illustrated through several recurring classes of examples, e.g., random contractions, randomly switched vector fields, and stochastic differential equations, the latter providing a bridge to continuous-time Markov processes. The book can serve as the core for a semester- or year-long graduate course in probability theory withan emphasis on Markov chains or random dynamics. Some of the material is also well suited for an ergodic theory course. Readers should have taken an introductory course on probability theory, based on measure theory. While there is a chapter devoted to chains on a countable state space, a certain familiarity with Markov chains on a finite state space is also recommended.

Pierre Guy Mubambar réévalue ce que la tradition qualifie d'irrationnel dans la philosophie de David Hume. Il s'appuie sur le rôle que joue, dans cette philosophie, le concept de probabilité. Dans cet ouvrage, il montre comment, du point de vue épistémologique et religieux, la probabilité permet à Hume de dissoudre la causalité et la croyance au miracle. Comment décider sans trop tergiverser? L'auteur ébauche une théorie de la décision raisonnable, dans laquelle il estime que les mesures prises par la raison permettent la rectification des probabilités non philosophiques. Grâce aux probabilités philosophiques, ces mesures servent la transmutation des passions violentes en passions calmes. Ainsi, peut se construire, dans la philosophie humienne, un choix spécifique qui n'est complètement ni passionnel ni rationnel, mais naturellement et inclusivement raisonnable.

This proceedings volume gathers selected, peer-reviewed papers presented at the 41st International Conference on Infinite Dimensional Analysis, Quantum Probability and Related Topics (QP41) that was virtually held at the United Arab Emirates University (UAEU) in Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, from March 28th to April 1st, 2021. The works cover recent developments in quantum probability and infinite dimensional analysis, with a special focus on applications to mathematical physics and quantum information theory. Covered topics include white noise theory, quantum field theory, quantum Markov processes, free probability, interacting Fock spaces, and more. By emphasizing the interconnection and interdependence of such research topics and their real-life applications, this reputed conference has set itself as a distinguished forum to communicate and discuss new findings in truly relevant aspects of theoretical and applied mathematics, notably in the field of mathematicalphysics, as well as an event of choice for the promotion of mathematical applications that address the most relevant problems found in industry. That makes this volume a suitable reading not only for researchers and graduate students with an interest in the field but for practitioners as well.

This book provides a coherent description of foundational matters concerning statistical inference and shows how statistics can help us make inductive inferences about a broader context, based only on a limited dataset such as a random sample drawn from a larger population. By relating those basics to the methodological debate about inferential errors associated with p-values and statistical significance testing, readers are provided with a clear grasp of what statistical inference presupposes, and what it can and cannot do. To facilitate intuition, the representations throughout the book are as non-technical as possible.The central inspiration behind the text comes from the scientific debate about good statistical practices and the replication crisis. Calls for statistical reform include an unprecedented methodological warning from the American Statistical Association in 2016, a special issue “Statistical Inference in the 21st Century:A World Beyond p < 0.05” of The American Statistician in 2019, and a widely supported call to “Retire statistical significance” in Nature in 2019.The book elucidates the probabilistic foundations and the potential of sample-based inferences, including random data generation, effect size estimation, and the assessment of estimation uncertainty caused by random error. Based on a thorough understanding of those basics, it then describes the p-value concept and the null-hypothesis-significance-testing ritual, and finally points out the ensuing inferential errors. This provides readers with the competence to avoid ill-guided statistical routines and misinterpretations of statistical quantities in the future.Intended for readers with an interest in understanding the role of statistical inference, the book provides a prudent assessment of the knowledge gain that can be obtained from a particular setof data under consideration of the uncertainty caused by random error. More particularly, it offers an accessible resource for graduate students as well as statistical practitioners who have a basic knowledge of statistics. Last but not least, it is aimed at scientists with a genuine methodological interest in the above-mentioned reform debate.

T​his book provides an introduction to recent developments in the theory of generalized harmonic analysis and its applications. It is well known that convolutions, differential operators and diffusion processes are interconnected: the ordinary convolution commutes with the Laplacian, and the law of Brownian motion has a convolution semigroup property with respect to the ordinary convolution. Seeking to generalize this useful connection, and also motivated by its probabilistic applications, the book focuses on the following question: given a diffusion process Xt on a metric space E, can we construct a convolution-like operator • on the space of probability measures on E with respect to which the law of Xt has the •-convolution semigroup property? A detailed analysis highlights the connection between the construction of convolution-like structures and disciplines such as stochastic processes, ordinary and partial differential equations, spectral theory, special functions and integral transforms.The book will be valuable for graduate students and researchers interested in the intersections between harmonic analysis, probability theory and differential equations.

This book is an easy-to-read reference providing a link between functional analysis and diffusion processes. More precisely, the book takes readers to a mathematical crossroads of functional analysis (macroscopic approach), partial differential equations (mesoscopic approach), and probability (microscopic approach) via the mathematics needed for the hard parts of diffusion processes. This work brings these three fields of analysis together and provides a profound stochastic insight (microscopic approach) into the study of elliptic boundary value problems.The author does a massive study of diffusion processes from a broad perspective and explains mathematical matters in a more easily readable way than one usually would find. The book is amply illustrated; 14 tables and 141 figures are provided with appropriate captions in such a fashion that readers can easily understand powerful techniques of functional analysis for the study of diffusion processes in probability.The scope of the author's work has been and continues to be powerful methods of functional analysis for future research of elliptic boundary value problems and Markov processes via semigroups. A broad spectrum of readers can appreciate easily and effectively the stochastic intuition that this book conveys. Furthermore, the book will serve as a sound basis both for researchers and for graduate students in pure and applied mathematics who are interested in a modern version of the classical potential theory and Markov processes.For advanced undergraduates working in functional analysis, partial differential equations, and probability, it provides an effective opening to these three interrelated fields of analysis. Beginning graduate students and mathematicians in the field looking for a coherent overview will find the book to be a helpful beginning. This work will be a major influence in a very broad field of study for a long time.

Das durch eine neue Dichte unterstützte SIR – Modell und dessen Derivate erhalten einen statistischen Datenhintergrund aus Häufigkeitsverteilungen, aus deren Parameterwerten über die neue Dichteverteilung auf eine qualitätsorientierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des jeweiligen Infektionsprozesses und seiner Zukunft geschlossen werden kann. Dadurch erhält das COVID - Management eine funktionsgemäße modellhafte Grundlage zur vorbeugenden Steuerung der Komponenten Zeitplanung, Kostenentwicklung, Qualitätsmanagement und Personal- und Materialeinsatz.

This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a practical introduction to probability with statistical applications, covering material for both a first and second undergraduate probability course. The author focuses on essential concepts that every student should thoroughly understand. The content is organized into brief, easy-to-follow chapters, motivated by plenty of examples. The first part of the book focuses on classical discrete probability distributions, then goes on to study continuous distributions, confidence intervals, and statistical tests. The following section introduces more advanced concepts suitable for a second course in probability, such as random vectors and sums of random variables. The last part of the book is dedicated to mathematical statistics concepts such as estimation, sufficiency, Bayes'estimation, and multiple regression. This third edition includes a new chapter on combinatorics and a more distinct separation betweendiscrete and continuous distributions. Some of the longer chapters in the previous editions have been divided into shorter chapters to allow for more flexible teaching.Probability with Statistical Applications, Third Edition is intended for undergraduate students taking a first course in probability; later chapters are also suited for a second course in probability and mathematical statistics. Calculus is the only prerequisite; prior knowledge of probability is not required.

Agent-based Models and Causal Inference Scholars of causal inference have given little credence to the possibility that ABMs could be an important tool in warranting causal claims. Manzo's book makes a convincing case that this is a mistake. The book starts by describing the impressive progress that ABMs have made as a credible methodology in the last several decades. It then goes on to compare the inferential threats to ABMs versus the traditional methods of RCTs, regression, and instrumental variables showing that they have a common vulnerability of being based on untestable assumptions. The book concludes by looking at four examples where an analysis based on ABMs complements and augments the evidence for specific causal claims provided by other methods. Manzo has done a most convincing job of showing that ABMs can be an important resource in any researcher's tool kit.—Christopher Winship, Diker-Tishman Professor of Sociology, Harvard University, USA Agent-based Models and Causal Inference is a first-rate contribution to the debate on, and practice of, causal claims. With exemplary rigor, systematic precision and pedagogic clarity, this book contrasts the assumptions about causality that undergird agent-based models, experimental methods, and statistically based observational methods, discusses the challenges these methods face as far as inferences go, and, in light of this discussion, elaborates the case for combining these methods'respective strengths: a remarkable achievement.—Ivan Ermakoff, Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA Agent-based models are a uniquely powerful tool for understanding how patterns in society may arise in often surprising and counter-intuitive ways. This book offers a strong and deeply reflected argument for how ABM's can do much more: add to actual empirical explanation. The work is of great value to all social scientists interested in learning how computational modelling can help unraveling the complexity of the real social world.—Andreas Flache, Professor of Sociology at the University of Groningen, Netherlands Agent-based Models and Causal Inference is an important and much-needed contribution to sociology and computational social science. The book provides a rigorous new contribution to current understandings of the foundation of causal inference and justification in the social sciences. It provides a powerful and cogent alternative to standard statistical causal-modeling approaches to causation. Especially valuable is Manzo's careful analysis of the conditions under which an agent-based simulation is relevant to causal inference. The book represents an exceptional contribution to sociology, the philosophy of social science, and the epistemology of simulations and models.—Daniel Little, Professor of philosophy, University of Michigan, USA Agent-based Models and Causal Inference delivers an insightful investigation into the conditions under which different quantitative methods can legitimately hold to be able to establish causal claims. The book compares agent-based computational methods with randomized experiments, instrumental variables, and various types of causal graphs. Organized in two parts, Agent-based Models and Causal Inference connects the literature from various fields, including causality, social mechanisms, statistical and experimental methods for causal inference, and agent-based computation models to help show that causality means different things within different methods for causal analysis, and that persuasive causal claims can only be built at the intersection of these various methods. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough comparison between agent-based computation models to randomized experiments, instrumental variables, and several types of causal gr