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The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the livestock sector is a major concern as GHG can contribute to climate change event such as global warming. The country demand for livestock is rapidly increasing, due to population and economic growth. However, in Malaysia, there is still limited studies on GHG assessment from the livestock sector and its projection based on the self-sufficient level under population growth. In this study, the GHG emissions of different livestock were estimated using the livestock population data published in the year 2010–2019, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Malaysia’s livestock sector is dominated by poultry, swine, non-dairy cattle and goat. The emission is dependent on the livestock species and population. For enteric fermentation, non-dairy cattle accounted for 73.91% of the CH4 emission. For manure management, the main contributors were swine and poultry, accounting for 61.49% and 26.24% of the CH4 emission. Poultry and non-dairy cattle contributed to 63.25% and 20.79% of the direct N2O emission from manure management. Comparatively, enteric fermentation was observed to contribute for more than 50% share of the total CO2-eq emission. The GHG projection was carried out in two scenarios based on the population projection, self-sufficient level and product consumption per capita for the year 2019, 2030 and 2040. The scenario analysis showed that increasing the animal mass by 1% without increasing the livestock population could help in elevating the sufficiency level of food product even with increasing product demand.

Among-individual variation in vital rates, such as mortality and birth rates, exists in nearly all populations. Recent studies suggest that this individual heterogeneity produces substantial life-history and fitness differences among individuals, which in turn scale up to influence population dynamics. However, our ability to understand the consequences of individual heterogeneity is limited by inconsistencies across conceptual frameworks in the field. Studies of individual heterogeneity remain filled with contradicting and ambiguous terminology that introduces risks of misunderstandings, conflicting models and unreliable conclusions. Here, we synthesise the existing literature into a single and comparatively straightforward framework with explicit terminology and definitions. This work introduces a distinction between potential vital rates and realised vital rates to develop a coherent framework that maps directly onto mathematical models of individual heterogeneity. We suggest the terms "fixed condition" and "dynamic condition" be used to distinguish potential vital rates that are permanent from those that can change throughout an individual's life. To illustrate, we connect the framework to quantitative genetics models and to common classes of statistical models used to infer individual heterogeneity. We also develop a population projection matrix model that provides an example of how our definitions are translated into precise quantitative terms.

Background There are surprisingly few resources available which offer an introductory guide to preparing a national population projection using a cohort-component model. Many demography textbooks cover projections quite briefly, and many academic papers on projections focus on advanced technical issues. Aims The aim of this paper is to provide a short and accessible guide to producing a national-scale population projection using the cohort-component model. Data and methods The paper describes the cohort-component model from a population accounting perspective, presents all the necessary projection calculations, and covers the key steps which form part of the projections preparation process – from gathering input data to validating outputs. An accompanying Excel workbook implements the model and contains example projections for Australia. Conclusions Calculating a national population projection using a cohort-component model involves fairly simple algebra, but the broader projections preparation process is more complex, and requires careful consideration and judgement.

Palembang has abundant water sources; the city of Palembang is traversed by one of the longest rivers in Indonesia, the Musi River. However, population growth is increasing over time, as is the need for clean water. Projections of the amount of clean water demand in the future are needed; apart from anticipating water shortages, water demand projections are required to construct clean water facilities and infrastructure. This research was conducted using statistical calculations to calculate the population in the next ten years. The population of Palembang in 2030 is projected to increase to1,898,221 inhabitants. The results of this population projection are used in calculating the total water demand in 2030. The total water demand is obtained from the calculation of domestic, non-domestic, fire hydrant, and water loss needs. In 2030, the total amount of water needed is 6,816 L / second.

It is well known that accurate forecasts of mortality rates are essential to various demographic research like population projection, and the pricing of insurance products such as pensions and annuities. Recent studies suggest that mortality rates of multivariate ages are usually not leading indicators in mortality forecasting. Therefore, multivariate stochastic mortality models including the classic Lee–Carter may not necessarily lead to more accurate forecasts, compared with sophisticated univariate counterparties like the exponential smoothing state space (ETS) model. Despite its improved forecasting accuracy, the original ETS model cannot ensure the age-coherence of forecast mortality rates. By introducing an effective penalty scheme, we propose a penalized ETS model to significantly overcome this problem, with discussions on related technical issues including the reduction of parameter dimensionality and the selection of tuning parameter. Empirical results based on mortality rates of the Australian males and females suggest that the proposed model consistently outperforms the Lee–Carter and original ETS models. Robust conclusions are drawn when various forecasting scenarios are considered. Long-term forecasting analyses up to 2050 comparing the three models are further performed. To illustrate its usefulness in practice, an application to price fixed-term annuities with the penalized ETS model is demonstrated.

Por más de un millón de años, los seres humanos fueron cazadores y recolectores, los componentes demográficos, como la mortalidad y la fecundidad, tenían variables y tasas elevadas, por lo que la población se autorregulaba. Es allí, a causa del crecimiento demográfico durante generaciones y las emisiones de carbono, se realiza el acuerdo de parís, y con unión de varios países nace la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, que incluye 17 Objetivos y 169 metas. El objetivo de nuestra presente investigación es estimar la huella de carbono en la ciudad específicamente en la zona urbana, lugar donde se agrupa gran parte de su población total. Los métodos utilizados en este trabajo fueron cualitativo, cuantitativo, deductivo y lógico. En la zona urbana de Manta, con un 6.42% margen de error, se determinaron 232 familias encuestadas, el cual se realizó un escrutinio por cada familia para determinar la estimación aproximada en un mes. Si bien es cierto un factor muy importante en nuestro trabajo de investigación, fue el determinar el número de habitantes en la zona urbana de ciudad de Manta, y con ello realizar una proyección hasta el año 2050, el cual optamos por escoger el método de proyección polinómica para estipular una proyección poblacional. Podemos decir en conclusión que el aumento de la huella de carbono crecerá aún más por la demanda poblacional prevista en ese lapso de tiempo, dando un total para el año 2050 de 56,272 toneladas de co2 emitidos por los habitantes.

One of the most important duties of urbanism is to meet the basic needs of people. The need for shelter takes a significant place among the basic needs of people. Urban populations, which are increasing very rapidly nowadays, have made urban development a non-negligible situation. Urban planning should be done by ensuring urban development and without losing the city identity, and a regular development strategy should be adopted according to objective criteria in order to manage the available resources correctly. In this study, the 100-year urban development of Sivas city center was examined with the Geographical Information System (GIS) by considering historic buildings and population projection, and the relationship between housing in the city in this process and implementary zoning plans was investigated.

Population census data has become more pervasive to lives which has demanded for increase in scope, completeness, accuracy and validity, and improve on their national value and international comparability. The accuracy of population projections has been attracting more attention, driven by concerns about the possible long-term effects of aging and other demographic trends. This paper therefore, attempt to improve on the manual way of managing census data by developing an automated census data management system. This system in addition, is capable of projecting population growth using exponential growth equation. The National Population Commission, Benin City was used as a case study.

Energy and sanitation are key factors to ensure economic development and quality of life for any nation’s population. These are challenges for less developed nations such as Benin, located in West Africa. Sewage treatment plants with biogas energy recovery present an opportunity for this country to overcome both problems. The present study aims to foster biogas development and the sanitation sector in Benin. More specifically, the goal is to evaluate energy potential and economic viability for anaerobic biogas energy generation in generators located in ten Beninese cities. In order to do so, a population projection was carried out for each city, followed by estimates for biogas production and, subsequently, calculating energy potential and economic viability. Reactor implementation costs were weighed separately in order to see the impact when included. In addition to developing sanitation in the country, the studied projects could supply up to 2% of the energy imported during 2016. In economic terms, the projects were unfeasible when considering the reactor implementation costs. A mandatory energy rate would have to be paid by the population to ensure enterprises a return on their investment. The results obtained furthered discussions on alternatives for Benin’s energy and sanitation sectors and can be used for future research and decision making.

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess the quality of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using the 1998 census data and all available intercensal surveys. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each six first-level subnational entities for which data are available to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration. We arrive at similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 212.4 million compared to 207.7 million counted (2.3% difference). However, we found more variations at the sub-national level.

The permit of two million tons of rice import in 2018 has tickled Indonesia's ability to fulfill its own rice needs. Farmers' anxiety that rice import can affect rice prices proved by its declining. The distribution of imported rice indeed has not been optimal. People say that imports are carried out without proper planning. This study aims to estimate the rice production and consumption data of Indonesia in 2014 to 2019, compare those data, and conclude whether Indonesia needs to import the rice at those years based on the comparison result. Estimating rice production and consumption were carried out using secondary data consisted of paddy production data, per capita rice consumption data, and population projection data which obtained from the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and/or the Ministry of Agriculture. Based on the comparison result between rice production and consumption data from 2014 to 2019, it can be concluded that from 7 islands in Indonesia, only 2 islands have the estimated rice consumption which always more than the estimated production, namely Maluku and Papua. The total estimated rice consumption in Indonesia is always lower than the estimated production. A rice surplus on a nearby island, Sulawesi, should be able to cover shortages in Maluku and Papua. If the estimated rice consumption in these three islands is totaled, the amount is always smaller than the estimated rice production in these three islands. This is because the production of rice on the island of Sulawesi is very large. The estimated total consumption of rice in 2019 is only 60% of production.

A água é um recurso indispensável para a vida e necessária para o desenvolvimento humano e funcionamento de atividades econômicas. Em virtude da distância e não potabilidade das fontes, através de sistemas de abastecimento o recurso é captado, tratado e distribuído para consumo final nos municípios. Nesse processo, vazamentos nas infraestruturas resultam em perdas e desperdício de um recurso cada dia mais escasso, cuja demanda é naturalmente pressionada pela expansão demográfica. No Sistema Integrado de Abastecimento de Água de Feira de Santana, localizado no semiárido baiano, apesar da escassez hídrica estrutural da região, verificam-se perdas na distribuição de 49% do volume após tratamento, comprometendo o atendimento e elevando custos do serviço. Considerando a projeção populacional estimada pelos órgãos estaduais de estatística, o trabalho analisa a disponibilidade de água para atendimento aos municípios inseridos no Sistema simulando hipóteses relacionadas a redução de perdas na distribuição em cenários de manutenção e aumento da demanda. Os resultados evidenciam a já presente insuficiência para atendimento à população e a imperiosa necessidade de melhoria nos níveis de eficiência da prestadora responsável, a Embasa.

Normal newborn care is an action that must be done immediately by labor assistants and parents who aim to prevent complications as early as possible because newborns tend to be sensitive to changes in the surrounding environment including air, temperature, etc., including exposure to various diseases. Besides the nutritional needs of infants also differ in terms of the amount and frequency of administration. The population projection according to the National Development Planning Agency in 2010-2035, Indonesia's population in 2010 reached 238.52 million, with a birth rate of 5 million, and a death rate of 1.52 people. According to the Indonesian Health Profile (2017), exclusive breastfeeding coverage is 54.0%, while for East Java, exclusive breastfeeding coverage is 48.1% and in the city of Jember 58%, for umbilical cord care that is not given anything at 33.6 %, 63.3% were treated with alcohol or betadine, 0.7% were administered with sowing drugs, and 2.3% were given traditional medicine. The process of starting breastfeeding nationally is done at the age of 0-24 months, the initiation of early breastfeeding in less than one hour is 34.5%, which starts 1-6 hours 35.2%, starts 7-24 hours 3.7%. While for East Java, early breastfeeding initiation which started in less than one hour was 33.3%, 1-6 hours started in 33.5%, started in 7-23 hours was 3.3%, which started in 24-47 hours are 15.3% and those that start more than 48 hours are 14.7%. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of mother to care for normal newborn babies before and after demonstrations learning methods were given. Analytic observational research design, with one group pre test-post test approach, with a population of mothers who have newborns until the age of 28 days, a total of 20 people with acidental sampling techniques, measuring instruments used questionnaires and checklist.The results showed of the study found that there were significant difference between the results of the first and second ability measurements in the learning group with the demonstration method, with a p-value of 0,000, 95% Cl -7,904 - -2,696. This demonstation learning methods is very effective to improve the ability of mothers to care for their babies, all mothers both who already have a baby are important to prepare the din to prepare the ability to care for a new baby well, so that with the ability to care for it, will increase bounding with the baby.

Accurate forecasts of mortality rates are essential to various types of demographic research such as population projection, and the pricing of insurance products such as pensions and annuities. Recent studies have considered a spatial temporal autoregressive (STAR) model for the mortality surface, where mortality rates for each age depend (temporally) on their historical values as well as (spatiality) on those of neighboring age cohorts. This model has sound statistical properties including cointegrated dependent variables and the existence of closed‐form solutions. Despite its improved forecasting performance over the famous Lee–Carter (LC) model, the constraint that only the effects of the same and neighboring cohorts are significant can be too restrictive. In this study, we adopt a data‐driven adaptive weighted structure and propose the adaptive STAR (ASTAR) model. Retaining all the desirable features of the STAR, our model uniformly outperforms the LC and STAR counterparts in terms of forecasting accuracy, when mortality data for ages 0–100 from the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Japan over the period 1950–2016 are considered. Two sensitivity tests and additional simulation results also lead to robust conclusions. The proposed ASTAR model could therefore be a widely useful tool for modeling and forecasting mortality rates in other contexts, and may be extended to multipopulation modeling.

In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We started with 73,607 census tracts but eliminated those for which zeros appeared in age/sex groups. The test uses 1990 and 2000 census tract data by age and gender to construct cohort change ratios, which are then applied to 2000 census tract data to generate 2010 Hamilton–Perry projections that are evaluated in an ex post facto test against the reported 2010 census tract data by age and gender. The projections include: (1) uncontrolled age and gender projections; and (2) age and gender projections controlled to a projection of the population total by census tract. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is used to evaluate precision and Mean Algebraic Percent Error (MALPE) is used to evaluate bias. We find that controlling the Hamilton–Perry projections by age for each tract to the linearly projected total population of each tract reduces both MAPE and MALPE within age groups by gender and for total females and total males. As this result suggests, simple linear extrapolation provides more accurate projections of the total population than does the Hamilton–Perry Method. However, even with controlling we find the Hamilton–Perry projections by age to be biased upward. Finally, we use MAPE-R (MAPE- Revised) to evaluate the effect of extreme outliers and find that high MAPEs in the uncontrolled projections are largely driven by extreme errors (outliers) found in less than 1 percent of the 65,221 census tracts used in the study.