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Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1, DSGD; KCID, A rapidly changing world combined with mounting domestic challenges is prompting many Middle East and North African (MENA) countries to rethink their development models and to initiate economic and social reforms. Taking this new momentum as a starting point, this paper uses the concept of Food Security to identify the region’s challenges along four major themes: economic growth and incomes, trade and infrastructure, agriculture and water, and health and education. Results show that many of the region’s longstanding challenges persist; yet taking immediate action is more urgent in light of the recent, global food, fuel, and financial crisis and projected severe impacts of climate change. Fostering development and achieving food security will require economic growth and diversification that generates jobs for the majority of people, breaking the strong vulnerability to international oil and food price volatility, managing depleting water resources and climate change adaptation effectively, transforming social policies to target the poor, and empowering women to play a more active role in the economy and society. Designing policies and investments for achieving progress in this direction are most likely to be successful if based on lessons from the past, successful countries’ experiences and research-based strategic analysis. The paper therefore concludes with a list of priority research areas to identify key actions to be taken on regional, national and sub-national levels to foster development and food security.

PR, IFPRI4, MTID

PR, IFPRI3; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.1; GRP23; ISI, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRI1 training, MTID, The objective of this training module is to explain how to use GAMS to construct, calibrate, and modify agricultural sector models in order to simulate the effect of alternative policies or other events affecting agricultural markets. In particular, the course aims to train the participants in the following skills: * determining whether an agricultural sector model is appropriate for a given research question; * selecting the scale of the model in terms of commodities, markets, and time periods; * constructing the model in GAMS using available data; * running simulations of alternative policies and events; * revising the model in response to new information; and * documenting and describing the results of simulations. Although the course does not attempt to cover agricultural economics and international trade in depth, it does provide a quick review of concepts to explain the logic behind the components of agricultural sector models. It should be noted that this course is not a lecture course, but rather it is a semi-structured hands-on workshop in which trainees will use computers to learn different methods of analyzing data. The course starts out with very simple models and gradually introduces new concepts and new commands to develop a multi- market spatial equilibrium model that represents four commodities and six regions, as well as internal trade and international trade. This model is called SDP4 and is shown in Annex 1 of this guide.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRI1 training, MTID, This manual was prepared to be used as part of a one-week training course. Earlier versions of the manual have been used in training courses in various countries. This manual describes how to use Stata to store, describe, and analyze data. The emphasis is on the analysis of household survey data, but Stata can be used with any database. It should be noted that this course is not a lecture course, but rather it is a semi-structured hands-on workshop in which trainees will use computers to learn different methods of analyzing data. Thus, active participation of the trainees is expected and necessary to maximize the benefit from the training. The training modules focus on how to use computer software to implement a wide range of topics and analytical methods. In order to cover this range of methods, the course cannot provide detailed explanations of the all statistical methods themselves, so it is assumed that trainees have some familiarity with statistical concepts.

PR, IFPRI1; GRP27, MTID; DSGD, "In the 1970s and 1980s, most African countries sold fertilizer at subsidized prices through state-owned enterprises. In response to the fiscal cost and ineffective implementation of these subsidies, as well as pressure from international financial institutions, almost all of these countries liberalized their fertilizer markets to some degree as part of structural adjustment programs carried out in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Under these reforms, governments eliminated state monopolies on fertilizer distribution and phased out universal subsidies." -- from text

PR, IFPRI1; World Food Issues, DGO, La creciente variabilidad y la fuerte tendencia al alza en los precios mundiales de alimentos durante los últimos dos años han sido motivo de preocupación debido a que pueden aumentar la pobreza y el hambre a nivel mundial. Al mismo tiempo, el aumento en los precios de alimentos es un incentivo y una oportunidad para que muchos países en vías de desarrollo fortalezcan la contribución del sector agrícola al crecimiento económico nacional y a la reducción de la pobreza. Sin embargo, los diseñadores de políticas y líderes de opinión en los países en vías de desarrollo a menudo no tienen suficiente información para medir o evaluar los posibles efectos de una crisis alimentaria mundial en sus países y para identificar, diseñar e implementar medidas para evitar los efectos negativos y aprovechar las oportunidades. La falta de información y análisis puede ocasionar respuestas ya sea innecesarias o insuficientes, con las consecuentes fallas del mercado y de las políticas. La experiencia en diversos países durante 2007 y 2008 aporta suficiente evidencia para demostrar que esto puede ocurrir. Aunque la información disponible sobre las crisis alimentarias es alarmante y justifica un esfuerzo a gran escala, esta información debe mejorarse para que puedan tomarse acciones eficaces.--From Text

Non-PR, IFPRI-5, MTID, 53 pages, The global food crisis of 2007-08 was characterized by a dramatic increase in the prices of agricultural commodities in international markets. Between January 2007 and March 2008, the food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) rose 61%. Staple food crop prices rose even more steeply: over the same period, the prices of wheat and rice doubled, while that of maize increased by 42%. Since then, food prices have declined somewhat, but prices remain significantly higher than the average in 2006. For example, the average price of rice in 2009 is 90% higher than the average level in 2006 (FAO, 2009). High world prices were transmitted to domestic markets, eroding the purchasing power of urban households and other net buyers of food, forcing them to reduce non-food spending and shift to cheaper foods. Poor urban households were particularly affected because they spend a large share of their income on food. At the national level, food importing countries faced balance of payment pressure as the cost of food imports rose. In addition, the cost of operating food and nutrition programs at the national and international level rose steeply. In dozens of countries, the high prices sparked demonstrations and sometimes riots. A number of countries, including Argentina, India, Russia, and Vietnam, responded by restricting rice and wheat exports in an attempt to keep domestic prices from rising. Finally, at the international level, food aid budgets were stretched, as increased need in developing countries coincided with decreased purchasing power of the World Food Programme and other food aid agencies (Benson et al. 2008).

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; World Food Issues, DGO, Strong upward trends and increased variability in global food prices during the past two years have led to concern that hunger and poverty will increase across the world. At the same time, rising food prices provide an incentive and opportunity for many developing countries to strengthen the contribution their farmers make to national economic growth and poverty reduction. Policymakers and opinion leaders in developing countries, however, often lack sufficient information to gauge the likely effects of global food crises on their country and to identify, design, and implement policy actions that can best avoid risks and take advantage of opportunities. The deficiencies in information and analysis can lead to overand underreactions, resulting in policy and market failures. Experiences across countries in 2007 and 2008 show ample evidence of such outcomes. Although the food crisis information currently available is alarming and sufficient to initiate largescale action, the information base must be improved to make that action more effective.--From Text

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP2, MTID, "Cotton, textiles, and apparel are critical agricultural and industrial sectors in Pakistan. This study provides descriptions of these sectors and examines the key developments emerging domestically and internationally that affect the challenges and opportunities they face. One-quarter of Pakistani farmers, of whom about 40 percent have household incomes below the poverty line, grow cotton. Export controls and taxes kept cotton prices below international levels until the mid-1990s but have subsequently tracked export parity international levels following reforms to trade and pricing policies and a greater role for the private sector. Pakistani farmers have not formally adopted genetically modified Bt cotton but there is some field evidence of its unregulated use. Despite constraints in its production, storage, and ginning sectors, the production of cotton yarn increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent during 1990-2005 and Pakistan's share of world output increased to nearly 10 percent. Cotton-related products account for nearly 60 percent of Pakistan's export earnings. The textile industry still produces mostly fabrics of relatively low count (low quality) although it has been successful in expanding its exports of some higher-value products. The industry will need further entrepreneurial initiatives to remain competitive in international markets. Among the farm households that produce cotton, about 40 percent of total income comes from its production. The decline in world prices that occurred in the late 1990s adversely affected these households. Household-level simulations suggest that a counterfactual 20 percent increase of cotton prices, which reflects the extent to which real cotton prices declined in Pakistan during this period, would have reduced the percentage of cotton-producing households below the poverty line in 2001 from 40 percent to 28 percent. The estimated effect from declining cotton prices explains about one-sixth of the overall observed increase

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, Given that Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest incidence of poverty and malnutrition in the world, the stagnation in per capita grain production there is worrisome. Since 1970, per capita grain production in Sub-Saharan Africa has declined more than 10 percent. Increasing the productivity of staple foodcrops will help poor farmers and consumers, and one of the most sustainable ways to expand food production in Sub-Saharan Africa is to generate new technologies-including staple seed varieties-that are adapted to the constraints of the continent's small-scale farmers. The region thus requires a cost-effective system of seed production and distribution to ensure that appropriate seeds are delivered to farmers.Both the private and public sectors have a role to play in developing the seed sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although the private sector can effectively carry out many seed production and distribution activities, for reasons discussed in this brief, private companies acting on their own will not develop and produce optimal amounts of appropriate seeds for Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus the public sector also has a role to play.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, The prices of maize, wheat, rice, and other crops have more than doubled over the past two years. These price hikes have been catalyzed by various factors including the rising cost of oil, biofuel subsidies in the US and Europe, the depreciation of the US dollar, the prolonged drought in Australia, and restrictions on the export of rice and wheat by various countries including Vietnam, India, Russia and Argentina. However, these short-term "headline" causes would not have had the same dramatic effect on world markets if we had not experienced a 5-10 year period of disequilibrium, in which the growth in cereal demand outpaced the growth in cereal production. This imbalance has been reflected in declining global cereal stocks since 2000. Cereal demand has been growing at 2-3% per year, thanks to rising incomes in China, India, and, more recently, sub-Saharan Africa. As incomes rise, people diversify their diet and consume more meat and other animal products, increasing the demand for feed, particularly maize. Meanwhile, yield growth in these cereals has declined from 3% in the 1970s to 1-2% in the 1990s, largely due to declining public investment in agricultural research.

PR, IFPRI3; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.1; GRP23, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.1; GRP23, MTID, Contract farming is seen by proponents as a way to raise small-farm income by delivering technology and market information to small farmers, incorporating them into remunerative new markets. Critics, however, see it as a strategy for agribusiness firms to pass production risk to farmers, taking advantage of an unequal bargaining relationship. There is also concern that contract farming will worsen rural income inequality by favoring larger farmers. This study examines these issues in Shandong Province, China, using survey data collected from 162 apple and green onion farmers and interviews with four contracting firms in 2005. Using a probit model to estimate participation in a contract-farming scheme, we find little evidence that contracting firms prefer to work with larger farmers, though all farms in the area are quite small. Furthermore, using a Heckman selection-correction model to control for possible selection bias, we find that contract farmers earn significantly more than independent farmers after controlling for household labor availability, education, farm size, and other characteristics. Finally, we find that the way contracting contributes to farm income varies between commodities: contract apple growers benefit from higher yields (presumably due to technical assistance), while contract green onion growers receive higher prices (presumably due to better quality). These results suggest that contract farming can help small farmers raise their incomes and gain access to the growing urban and export markets. Questions remain regarding the number of farmers that are, or could be, brought into similar contract arrangements." -- from Authors' Abstract

PR, IFPRI2; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.1; GRP2, MTID, In the past two decades, many countries in the Near East and North Africa region have reformed the agricultural sector by lowering agricultural tariffs, liberalizing domestic prices and reducing consumer food subsidies. However, trade restrictions and domestic price support mechanisms are still prevalent for a few strategic commodities (such as wheat), and there is wide divergence among the countries in terms of the extent and depth of liberalization. Under the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership launched in 1995, ongoing and future bilateral free trade agreements between the European Union and several Arab Mediterranean countries could lead to further trade liberalization. In addition, some countries have recently signed free trade agreements with the United States of America, and more countries in the Near East and North Africa region are expected to sign bilateral trade agreements with the United States in the near future.

Non-PR, IFPRI4, MTID, Contract farming may be defined as agricultural production carried out according to a prior agreement in which the farmer commits to producing a given product in a given manner and the buyer commits to purchasing it. Often, the buyer provides the farmer with technical assistance, seeds, fertilizer, and other inputs on credit and offers a guaranteed price for the output. Proponents of contract farming argue that it links small-scale farmers to lucrative markets and solves a number of problems small-scale farmers face in diversifying into high-value commodities. Opponents argue that the imbalance in power between the buyer (often a large agribusiness company) and the farmer leads to an agreement unfavorable to the farmer. Also, they argue that small farmers are often excluded from contract farming schemes, resulting in greater income inequality and social tensions in rural areas. To understand the rationale for contract farming, it is useful to view it as one form of vertical coordination, in between spot markets (in which supply and demand are coordinated through prices alone) and vertical integration (in which supply and demand are coordinated by having one firm carry out multiple stages in the market channel). Transaction cost economics, a branch of new institutional economics, suggests that, because contracting involves costs, it is economically justifiable only (1) when the buyer is a large firm (a processor, exporter, or supermarket chain); (2) when the product is characterized by large quality variations, perishability, technically difficult production, and/or a high value-bulk ratio; (3) when the destination market is willing to pay a premium for certain product or production attributes that can be ensured only by close coordination between farmers and buyers; and (4) when the policy environment is conducive. The vast majority of empirical studies suggest that contract farming schemes generally raise the income of farmers participating in the schemes. The evid

PR, IFPRI4, MTID; NDO

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; Subtheme 11.1; Theme 11; The future of smallholder farming, MTID, We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold. -- Authors' Abstract

Non-PR, IFPRI1; DCA, MTID, This study examines the sources of crop income growth in Indian agriculture over the 1980s and 1990s. Using a method developed by Minot (2003), the analysis decomposes crop income growth into the contribution of yield increases, area expansion, price increases, and diversification from low-value crops to higher-value crops. The results confirm that at the national level, technology (higher yield) was the main source of crop income growth during 1980s, while rising prices and diversification emerged as the dominant sources of growth in agriculture during 1990s. Diversification towards higher-value crops such as fruits and vegetables accounted for about 27% of crop income growth in the 1980s and 31% in the 1990s. However, these national averages hide substantial regional variation. In the grain-dominated northern and eastern regions, price increases were the most important source of growth during 1990s, while in the southern and western regions crop income growth was led by diversification into higher-value crops. The results reflect the slowing growth of wheat and rice yields in India, as well as the growing importance of diversification into higher-value crops. Restoring the growth in grain yields will require investment in agricultural research and development, while facilitating further diversification involves institutional development to better link small farmers with growing markets for high-value commodities.

PR, IFPRI1; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.2; DCA, MTID

PR, IFPRI1; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.2; The future of smallholder farming, MTID, This study uses a relatively new method called “small area estimation” to estimate various measures of poverty and inequality for provinces, districts, and communes of Vietnam. The method was applied by combining information from the 1997-98 Vietnam Living Standards Survey and the 1999 Population and Housing Census... Mapping the density of poverty reveals that, although the poverty rates are highest in the remote upland areas, these areas are sparsely populated so most of the poor live in the Red River Delta and the Mekong River Delta... This analysis confirms other studies indicating that the inequality in per capita expenditure is relatively low in Vietnam by international standards. Inequality is greatest in the large cities and (surprisingly) in parts of the upland areas. Inequality is lowest in the Red River Delta, followed by the Mekong Delta. Just one-third of the inequality is found between districts and two-thirds within them, suggesting that district-level targeting of anti-poverty programs may not be very effective... Finally, the study notes that the small area estimation method is not very useful for annual poverty mapping because it relies on census data, but it could be used to show detailed spatial patterns in other variables of interest to policymakers, such as income diversification, agricultural market surplus, and vulnerability. Furthermore, it can be used to estimate poverty rates among vulnerable populations too small to be studied with household survey data, such as the disabled, small ethnic minorities, or fishermen.

Non-PR, IFPRI3; DCA; 2020, MTID; DGO, The authors describe the case study as follows: "Kenyan horticultural exports have grown at over 6 percent per year for the past 30 years. Since 1974 the value of Kenya’s horticultural exports has increased fourfold in constant dollar terms, reaching US$167 million in 2000 (see figure). As a result, horticulture has become the third largest source of foreign exchange after tourism and tea. More than 25,000 small farmers participate in the sector, accounting for over half of Kenyan horticultural exports." They then examine the impacts and the driving forces of the Kenyan experience and conclude with the key lessons for future successes.

Non-PR, IFPRI3; Theme 11; Subtheme 11.2; The future of smallholder farming, MTID

PR, IFPRI4; MP-02; GRP2; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.1; Globalization, retail food industries, and trade, MTID

PR, ISI; IFPRI3; MP07; GRP27; Theme 11, MTID, "Economic reform programmes assume that major goods are tradable, such that depreciation of the real exchange rate raises the value of output compared to factor costs in domestic currency. In Tanzania, major food staples that account for most real income are non-tradables in at least one-quarter of the country. This conclusion is demonstrated and the implications are assessed for the constraints imposed on macroeconomic-led adjustment strategies." -- Authors' Abstract

PR, ISI; IFPRI3; GRP2; Theme 2, MTID

PR, ISI; IFPRI3; GRP2; Theme 2, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Agriculture and Rural Development, MTID, "In Tanzania, as in many other developing countries, the conventional wisdom is that economic reforms may have stimulated economic growth, but that the benefits of this growth have been uneven, favoring urban households and farmers with good market access. This idea, although quite plausible, has rarely been tested empirically. In this paper, we develop a new approach to measuring trends in poverty and apply it to Tanzania in order to explore the distributional aspects of economic growth and the relationship between rural poverty and market access. We find that, between 1991 and 2003, a period of extensive economic reforms, the overall rate of poverty fell about 9 percentage points. The degree of poverty reduction was similar between rural and urban areas, though poverty appears not to have declined in Dar es Salaam. The poverty rate fell more among households with a less educated head of household than among those with a more educated head. The gains were greater among male-headed households than female-headed households. We find that rural poverty is associated with remoteness, but the relationship is surprisingly weak and it varies depending on the definition used. Rural poverty is more closely related to access to regional urban centers than distance to roads or to Dar es Salaam. We find little evidence that remote rural areas are being “left behind” in terms of the absolute decline in the poverty rate."-- Authors' Abstract

PR, IFPRI3; GRP27; Theme 11; GRP24; Theme 7; Health, Diet and Nutrition, FCND

Non-PR, IFPRI4; GRP24; Theme 7; GRP27; Theme 11, FCND; MTID

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; MP-02; GRP2; Theme 2, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 2020, DGO, The authors describe the case study as follows: "Kenyan horticultural exports have grown at over 6 percent per year for the past 30 years. Since 1974 the value of Kenya's horticultural exports has increased fourfold in constant dollar terms, reaching US$167 million in 2000 (see figure). As a result, horticulture has become the third largest source of foreign exchange after tourism and tea. More than 25,000 small farmers participate in the sector, accounting for over half of Kenyan horticultural exports." They then examine the impacts and the driving forces of the Kenyan experience and conclude with the key lessons for future successes.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, Economic reform programs assume that major goods are tradable, such that depreciation of the real exchange rate raises the value of output compared to factor costs in domestic currency. In Tanzania, major food staples that account for most real income are non-tradables in at least one-quarter of the country. This is demonstrated and implications assessed for the constraints imposed on macroeconomic-led adjustment strategies.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, EPTD; MTID, Kenyan horticultural exports are often cited as a success story in African agriculture. Fruit and vegetable exports from Côte 'Ivoire have received less attention, but the export value is similar to that of Kenya. This paper focuses on three questions. First, do the horticultural sectors of Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire constitute valid success stories? Second, what factors have contributed to the success (or lack thereof)? And third, to what degree can the success be replicated in other African countries? The paper finds that Kenyan horticultural exports are indeed a success story: horticulture has become the third largest earner of foreign exchange, more than half the exports are produced by smallholders, and smallholders gain from producing for the export market. At the same time, the total number of smallholders producing for export is relatively small, and trends in European retailing may shift the advantage to larger producers. Côte d'Ivoire is not as clearly a success story because the most of the exports are produced on large industrial estates and because growth has been uneven. Ivorian exports rely on preferential access to European markets relative to Latin American exporters, raising doubts about sustainability. Factors in the growth and success of horticultural exports include a realistic exchange rate, stable policies, a good investment climate, competitive international transport connections, institutional, and social links with markets in Europe, and continual experimentation with the market institutions to link farmers and exporters. Smallholder participation is encouraged by farmer training and extension schemes, investment in small-scale irrigation, and assistance in establishing links with exporters. Many of the lessons of Kenyan horticulture can be applied elsewhere in Africa. Indeed, Kenya faces increasing competition from neighboring countries trying to replicate its success. At the same time, market institutions take time to develop, and demand con

Non-PR, IFPRI5; GRP2; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.1; Globalization, retail food industries, and trade, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI4, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI4; MP02; GRP2; Theme 2, MSSD, 27 p., "Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some countries (notably China and India), however, national statistics agencies are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household-level census data to outside researchers. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using the type of aggregated census data, such as village- or district-level means of the data, that is usually publicly available. We show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50 percent and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50 percent, and 100 percent. Using data from Vietnam, we find that the average absolute error in estimating provincial poverty rates is about 2 percentage points if the data are aggregated to the enumeration-area level and around 3-4 percentage points if they are aggregated to the provincial level. Even census data aggregated to the provincial level perform reasonably well in ranking the 61 provinces by the incidence of poverty: the average absolute error in ranking is 0.92." -- Authors' Abstract

Non-PR, IFPRI4, MSSD

Non-PR, IFPRI4, MSSD

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MSSD, World cotton prices have fallen by about 40 percent over the last two years, focusing attention on the effect of subsidies for cotton growers in depressing prices. This paper combines farm survey data from Benin with assumptions about the decline in farm-level prices to estimate the direct and indirect effects of cotton price reductions on rural income and poverty in Benin. The results indicate that there is a strong link between cotton prices and rural welfare in Benin. A 40 percent reduction in farm-level prices of cotton results in an increase in rural poverty of 8 percentage points in the short-run and 6-7 percentage points in the long run. Based on the estimated marginal propensity to consume tradable goods, the consumption multiplier is in the range of 3.3, meaning that one dollar of reduced spending by cotton growers results in a contraction of 3.3 dollars in overall demand. Finally, econometric analysis of the determinants of the demand for hired agricultural labor suggests that falling cotton prices will not greatly reduce labor demand since the labor intensity of cotton is similar to that of competing crops in Benin. Overall, the study highlights the link between rising subsidies for cotton growers in the U.S. and rural poverty in cotton exporting countries such as Benin.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MSSD, This paper combines household survey and census data to construct a provincial poverty map of Vietnam and evaluate the accuracy of geographically targeted anti-poverty programs. First, the paper estimates per capita expenditure as a function of selected household and geographic characteristics using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standards Survey. Next, these results are combined with data on the same household characteristics from the 1999 Census to estimate the incidence of poverty in each province. The results indicate that rural poverty is concentrated in ten provinces in the Northern Uplands, two provinces of the central Highlands, and two provinces in the Central Coast. Finally, Receiver Operating Characteristics curves are used to evaluate the effectiveness of geographic targeting. The results show that the existing poor communes system excludes large numbers of poor people, but there is potential to sharpen poverty targeting using a small number of easy-to-measure household characteristics.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MSSD; MTID, Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some cases, however, statistical authorities are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household-level census data. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using aggregated census data, such as village- or district-level means of the data. We show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50 percent and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50 percent, and 100 percent. Using data from Vietnam, we find that the average absolute error in estimating provincial poverty rates is about 2 percentage points if the data are aggregated to the enumeration-area level and around 3-4 percentage points if they are aggregated to the provincial level. Even census data aggregated to the provincial level perform reasonably well in ranking the 61 provinces by the incidence of poverty: the average absolute error in ranking is 0.92.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, Since the early 1980s, almost all African governments have embarked on economic reform programs to reduce state intervention in the economy and to allow markets to play a larger role. In the agricultural sector these programs were designed to eliminate price controls on agricultural commodities, disband or privatize state farms and state-owned enterprises, reduce the heavy taxation of agricultural exports, phase out subsidies on fertilizer and other inputs, and allow greater competition in agricultural markets. These measures have been highly controversial. Proponents argue that the reforms have improved market efficiency, reduced budget deficits, stimulated export production, and increased the share of the final price received by farmers. Opponents argue that the reforms have destabilized agricultural prices, widened the income distribution gap, and reduced access to low-cost inputs. Reforming Agricultural Markets in Africa by Mylène Kherallah, Christopher Delgado, Eleni Gabre-Madhin, Nicholas Minot, and Michael Johnson, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press for IFPRI, reviews the experience of the last 20 years. It evaluates the degree to which the reforms have actually been implemented, their impact on agricultural production and prices, and the net effect on the well-being of African households." --Author's Introduction.

Non-PR, IFPRI3, MSSD, This article reviews the extensive evidence on agricultural market reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa and summarises the impact reforms have had on market performance, agricultural production, use of modem inputs, and poverty. It offers eight recommendations for completing the reform process and developing a new agenda for agricultural markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. The reform experience in Sub-Saharan Africa has varied widely across countries and crop subsectors. The available evidence shows clear progress in some areas and mixed results in others. Most reforms were only partially implemented and policy reversal was common. Once implemented, however, reforms have increased competition and reduced marketing margins, benefiting both producers and consumers. Reforms have also boosted export crop production. On the other hand, food crop production has stagnated and yields have not improved. Further expansion of private trade is constrained by lack of access to credit, uncertainty about the government's commitment to reform, and high transaction costs.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Poverty Reduction; 2020, DGO; TMD