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Scott Reef is a remote yet biodiverse coral reef atoll, rising from depths > 1000 m on the edge of the continental shelf of northwestern Australia. An intensive 2‐week field study was conducted to assess how physical oceanographic processes influence reef communities in South Scott's deep (~ 50 m) and expansive (~ 300 km2) semi‐enclosed lagoon. The study covered a spring–neap tidal cycle, during which moored instruments measured temperature and velocities at a lagoon entrance and ship‐based vertical profilers measured water quality parameters. Tidally driven internal bores advected cooler and deeper offshore waters (up to 4.5°C, mean 2.4°C) into the lagoon, which were also richer in nutrients and chlorophyll a than lagoon waters. This offshore water originated from approximately 75 m depth. We used the strong observed relationship between in situ measurements of nitrate and temperature to estimate nitrate concentrations from high temporally and spatially resolved temperature measurements at the lagoon entrance, and then estimated the horizontal nitrate fluxes into the lagoon using the velocity measurements. The depth‐integrated, time‐averaged nitrate flux during spring tides (1.46 kg m−1 d−1) was over three times larger than during neap tides (0.46 kg m−1 d−1), despite a passing tropical storm that temporarily deepened the offshore thermocline and reduced the magnitude of the fluxes. Our observations indicate that colder, deeper, and nutrient‐rich water associated with internal tidal bores during spring tide is likely to be the primary mechanism through which allochtonous nutrients are delivered to benthic and pelagic communities within the lagoon of this isolated atoll. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient ( alpha ) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up ( R max and R 2% ) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash ( S IG and S SS ) and shoreline setup ( <η> ), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict R max and R 2% . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy beaches perched over rocky shore platforms are common globally, yet their mixed sand and rocky morphology present challenges for quantifying and predicting wave runup and inundation. For typical linear beach profiles, simple relationships can be made between vertical runup and horizontal inundation based on beach slope. However, as topographic irregularities increase, substantial deviations from these relationships can occur. Shore platforms often experience a range of beach states, from full sand coverage (accreted) to complete shore platform erosion (exposed). As a result, existing methods for quantifying runup and inundation on purely sandy beaches are generally not directly applicable to these coastlines. To advance our understanding of runup and inundation on perched beaches, the aim of this work is three-fold: (1) to provide a method for quantifying beach slope and runup across a range of perched beach profiles, (2) to assess the relationship between vertical runup and horizontal inundation observations, and (3) to understand how different hydrodynamic mechanisms (i.e., setup, swash) contribute to runup during different beach states. To achieve this, we conducted an 8-month field study along a perched beach in southwestern Australia that experiences large seasonal variations in beach state and wave climate. A method was developed to measure runup and beach slope when only the topography shoreward of the shore platform edge was known. Using this method, an approximately linear relationship between inundation and runup was identified by incorporating beach slope. Our observations suggest that the components that dominate runup on perched beaches were primarily dependent on beach state (i.e., accreted versus exposed). Runup was dominated by swash in the infragravity band when in an accreted beach state, and setup when in an exposed beach state. These results aid our understanding of coastal processes on perched beaches, while providing new methods applicable to a range of perched beach profiles. • New techniques were developed to quantify beach slope and runup on a perched beach. • Runup was infragravity swash-dominated when shore platform was covered by sediment. • Runup was setup-dominated when shore platform was visibly exposed. • Inundation multiplied by an 'idealized' beach slope was linearly related to runup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A feedback between seagrass presence, suspended sediment and benthic light can induce bistability between two ecosystem states: one where the presence of seagrass reduces suspended sediment concentrations to increase benthic light availability thereby favoring growth, and another where seagrass absence increases turbidity thereby reducing growth. This literature review identifies (1) how the environmental and seagrass meadow characteristics influence the strength and direction (stabilizing or destabilizing) of the seagrass-sediment-light feedback, and (2) how this feedback has been incorporated in ecosystem models proposed to support environmental decision making. Large, dense seagrass meadows in shallow subtidal, non-eutrophic systems, growing in sediments of mixed grain size and subject to higher velocity flows, have the greatest potential to generate bistability via the seagrass-sediment-light feedback. Conversely, seagrass meadows of low density, area and height can enhance turbulent flows that interact with the seabed, causing water clarity to decline. Using a published field experiment as a case study, we show that the seagrass-sediment-light feedback can induce bistability only if the suspended sediment has sufficient light attenuation properties. The seagrass-sediment-light feedback has been considered in very few ecosystem models. These models have the potential to identify areas where bistability occurs, which is information that can assist in spatial prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts. In areas where seagrass is present and bistability is predicted, recovery may be difficult once this seagrass is lost. Conversely, bare areas where seagrass presence is predicted (without bistability) may be better targets for seagrass restoration than bare areas where bistability is predicted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engineered and natural submerged coastal structures (e.g., submerged breakwaters and reefs) modify incident wave fields and thus can alter hydrodynamic processes adjacent to coastlines. Although submerged structures are generally assumed to promote beach protection by dissipating waves offshore and creating sheltered conditions in their lee, their interaction with waves can result in mean wave-driven circulation patterns that may either promote shoreline accretion or erosion. Here, we analyse the mean flow patterns and shoreline water levels (wave runup) in the lee of idealised impermeable submerged structures with a phase-resolved nonhydrostatic numerical model. Waves propagating over submerged structures can drive either a 2-cell mean (wave-averaged) circulation, which is characterised by diverging flows behind the structure and at the shoreline, or 4-cell circulation, with converging flows at the shoreline and diverging flows in the immediate lee of the structure. The numerical results show that the mode of circulation can be predicted with a set of relationships depending on the incoming wave heights, the structure crest level, and distance to the shoreline (or structure depth). Qualitative agreement between the mean flow and proxies for the sediment transport using an energetics approach suggest that the mean flow can be a robust proxy for inferring sediment transport patterns. For the cases considered, the submerged structures had a minimal influence on shoreline wave setup and wave runup despite the wave energy dissipation by the structures due to alongshore wave energy fluxes in the lee. Consequently, these results suggest that the coastal protection provided by the range of impermeable submerged structures we modelled is primarily due to their capacity to promote beach accretion. • A phase-resolved model simulates hydrodynamic interactions with submerged structures. • Waves can drive 2-cell or 4-cell mean circulation and sediment transport patterns. • Bottom shear stresses presented an overall similar pattern to the mean currents. • We develop a predictor for the flow patterns based on wave and structure parameters. • The submerged structures had limited influence on shoreline setup and wave runup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worlds' coral reefs are declining due to the combined effects of natural disturbances and anthropogenic pressures including thermal coral bleaching associated with global climate change. Nearshore corals are receiving increased anthropogenic stress from coastal development and nutrient run-off. Considering forecast increases in global temperatures, greater understanding of drivers of recovery on nearshore coral reefs following widespread bleaching events is required to inform management of local stressors. The west Pilbara coral reefs, with cross-shelf turbidity gradients coupled with a large nearby dredging program and recent history of repeated coral bleaching due to heat stress, represent an opportune location to study recovery from multiple disturbances. Mean coral cover at west Pilbara reefs was monitored from 2009 to 2018 and declined from 45% in 2009 to 5% in 2014 following three heat waves. Recruitment and juvenile abundance of corals were monitored from 2014 to 2018 and were combined with biological and physical data to identify which variables enhanced or hindered early-stage coral recovery of all hard corals and separately for the acroporids, the genera principally responsible for recovery in the short-term (<7 years). From 2014 to 2018, coral cover increased from 5 to 10% but recovery varied widely among sites (0–13%). Hard coral cover typically recovered most at shallower sites that had higher abundance of herbivorous fish, less macroalgae, and lower turbidity. Similarly, acroporid corals recovered most at sites with lower turbidity and macroalgal cover. Juvenile acroporid densities were a good indicator of recovery at least two years after they were recorded. However, recruitment to settlement tiles was not a good predictor of total coral or acroporid recovery. This study shows that coral recovery can be slower in areas of high turbidity and the rate may be reduced by local pressures, such as dredging. Management should focus on improving or maintaining local water quality to increase the likelihood of coral recovery under climate stress. Further, in turbid environments, juvenile coral density predicts early coral recovery better than recruits on tiles and may be a more cost-effective technique for monitoring recovery potential. • Three thermal anomalies over four years bleached corals and reduced cover by ~90%. • Coral recovery varied spatially, limited driven mostly by turbidity. • Better water quality increases the likelihood of coral recovery under climate stress. • Juvenile coral density predicted early coral recovery better than recruits on tiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 emissions., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.