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This paper explores the impacts of more rapid growth in labor productivity in the service sector in Asia based on an empirical general equilibrium model. The model allows for input-output linkages and capital movements across industries and economies, and consumption and investment dynamics. We find that faster productivity growth in the service sector in Asia benefits all sectors eventually, and contributes to the sustained and balanced growth of Asian economies, but the dynamic adjustment is different across economies. This adjustment depends on the sectoral composition of each economy, the capital intensity of each sector, and the openness of each sector to international trade. In particular, during the adjustment to higher services productivity growth, there is a significant expansion of the durable manufacturing sector that is required to provide the capital stock that accompanies the higher aggregate economic growth rate.

This paper examines the empirical implications of technological changes for skill demand and wage inequality in Indonesia. According to the National Labor Force Survey of Indonesia, the share of educated workers and wage skill premium increased significantly over 2003–2009 for overall industry and across the region. An analysis based on demand–supply framework suggests that demand shifts favoring skilled workers during the period. The decomposition of labor demand shifts shows that they were driven not only by reallocation of labor forces between industries but also by change within industries, particularly among formal workers, suggesting evidence of skill-biased technological changes. The empirical evidence from the data of manufacturing firms suggest that diffusion of new technologies through imported materials and foreign direct investment caused greater demand for skilled labor and higher wage inequality in the manufacturing sector.

Using both quantity- and price-based measures of financial integration, this paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asian markets. This paper also assesses the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets. The findings of this paper suggest that the region’s equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia’s local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. A case can be made for the benefits of increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region’s economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. The findings of this paper suggest that policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.

We investigate the effect of trade integration on interstate military conflict. Our empirical analysis, based on a large panel data set of 243,225 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflict. More importantly, we find that not only bilateral trade but global trade openness also significantly promotes peace. It shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of interstate conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also global trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.

This study examines the impact of capital controls using monthly information to construct higher-frequency, quarterly indexes for Malaysia during the period 2000–2008 and Thailand over the period 2000–2010 in a vector auto-regression model. The results show that restrictions in Thailand have no significant effect on inflows but are especially effective for outflows, particularly foreign direct investment. In Malaysia, capital relaxation tends to have a significant impact on inward foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows. Changes in capital account policies do not have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in Malaysia and Thailand.