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Processes that describe the distribution of vegetation and ecosystem succession after disturbance are an important component of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The vegetation dynamics module (ORC-VD) within the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) has not been updated and evaluated since many years and does not match the progress in modeling the rest of the physical and biogeochemical processes. Therefore, ORC-VD is known to produce unrealistic results. This study presents a new parameterization of ORC-VD for mid-to-high latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including processes that influence the existence, mortality and competition between tree functional types. A new set of metrics is also proposed to quantify the performance of ORC-VD, using up to five different datasets of satellite land cover, forest biomass from remote sensing and inventories, a data-driven estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP) and two gridded datasets of soil organic carbon content. The scoring of ORC-VD derived from these metrics integrates uncertainties in the observational datasets. This multi-dataset evaluation framework is a generic method that could be applied to the evaluation of other DGVM models. The results of the original ORC-VD published in 2005 for mid-to-high latitudes and of the new parameterization are evaluated against the above-described datasets. Significant improvements were found in the modeling of the distribution of tree functional types north of 40° N. Three additional sensitivity runs were carried out to separate the impact of different processes or drivers on simulated vegetation distribution, including soil freezing which limits net primary production through soil moisture availability in the root zone, elevated CO2 concentration since 1850, and the return frequency of cold climate extremes causing tree mortality during the spin-up phase of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We applied a climate-chemistry model to evaluate the impact of black carbon (BC) deposition on the Himalayan snow cover from 1998 to 2008. Using a stretched grid with a resolution of 50 km over this complex topography, the model reproduces reasonably well the observations of both the snow cover duration and the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric BC concentration including a maximum in atmospheric BC during the pre-monsoon period. Comparing the simulated BC concentrations in the snow with observations is challenging because of the high spatial variability and the complex vertical distribution of BC in the snow. We estimate that both wet and dry BC depositions affect the Himalayan snow cover reducing its annual duration by one to eight days. The resulting increase of the net shortwave radiation at the surface reaches an annual mean of 1 to 3Wm-2, leading to a localised warming of 0.05 to 0.3 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the combined surface status and surface soil moisture products retrieved by the ASCAT sensor within the ESA-DUE Permafrost project are compared to the hydrological outputs of the land surface model ORCHIDEE over Northern Eurasia. The objective is to derive broad conclusions as to the strengths and weaknesses of hydro-logical modelling and, to a minor extent, remote sensing of soil moisture over an area where data is rare and hydrological modelling is though crucial for climate and ecological applications. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the ASCAT products make them suitable for comparison with model outputs. Modelled and remotely-sensed surface frozen and unfrozen statuses agree reasonably well, which allows for a seasonal comparison between modelled and observed (liquid) surface soil moisture. The atmospheric forcing and the snow scheme of the land surface model are identified as causes of moderate model-to-data divergence in terms of surface status. For unfrozen soils, the modelled and remotely-sensed surface soil moisture signals are positively correlated over most of the study area. The correlation deteriorates in the North-Eastern Siberian regions, which is consistent with the lack of accurate model parameters and the scarcity of meteorological data. The model shows a reduced ability to capture the main seasonal dynamics and spatial patterns of observed surface soil moisture in Northern Eurasia, namely a characteristic spring surface moistening resulting from snow melt and flooding. We hypothesize that these weak performances mainly originate from the non-representation of flooding and surface ponding in the model. Further identified limitations proceed from the coarse treatment of the hydro-logical specificities of mountainous areas and spatial inaccuracies in the meteorological forcing in remote, North-Eastern Siberian areas. Investigations are currently underway to determine to which extent plausible inaccuracies in the satellite data could also contribute to the diagnosed model-to-data discrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the growing evidence for megalakes in the geological record, assessing their impact on climate and vegetation is important for the validation of paleoclimate simulations and therefore the accuracy of model/data comparison in lacustrine environments. Megalake Chad (MLC) occurrences are documented for the mid-Holocene but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009). The surface covered by water would have reached up to ~350 000 km² (Ghienne et al., 2002; Schuster et al., 2005; Leblanc et al., 2006) making it an important evaporation source, possibly modifying the climate and vegetation in the Chad basin. We investigated the impact of such a giant continental water area in two different climatic backgrounds within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3): the late Pliocene (3.3 to 3Ma, i.e. the mid-Piacenzian warm period) and the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). In all simulations including a MLC, precipitation is drastically reduced above the lake surface because deep convection is inhibited by colder air above the lake surface. Meanwhile, convective activity is enhanced around the MLC, because of the wind increase generated by the flat surface of the megalake, transporting colder and moister air towards the eastern shore of the lake. Effect of the MLC on precipitation and temperature is not suffcient to widely impact vegetation patterns. Nevertheless, tropical savanna is present in the Chad Basin in all climatic configurations, even without the MLC presence, showing that the climate itself is the driver of favourable environments for sustainable hominid habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement 15 with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discovery of groundwater fed Lake Yoa (19.03° N, 20.31° E) in the hyperarid desert of northern Chad by the German research team ACACIA headed by S. Kröpelin provides a unique, continuous sedimentary sequence of late Holocene age for the entire Saharan desert. Here we present pollen data and climate simulations using the LMDZ atmospheric model with a module representing the climatologically relevant thermal and hydrological processes occurring above and beneath inland water surfaces to document past environmental and climate changes during the last 6000 cal yr BP. Special attention is paid to wind strength and direction, length and amplitude of the rainy season, and on dry spell occurrence, all of which are of primary importance for plant distribution and pollen transport. In addition to climate changes and their impact on the natural environment, anthropogenic changes are also discussed. Two main features can be highlighted: (1) the shift from an earlier predominantly monsoonal climate regime to one dominated by northern Mediterranean fluxes occurred after 4000 cal yr BP. The direct consequence of this was the establishment of the modern desert environment at Yoa at 2700 cal yr BP. (2) Changes in climate parameters (simulated rainfall amount and dry spell length) between 6 and 4000 cal yr BP were comparatively minor. However, changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation during this time dramatically affected the vegetation composition and were at the origin of the retreat of tropical plant communities from the Lake Yoa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation reconstructions from pollen data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 ky ago, reveal lanscapes radically different from the modern ones, with, in particular, a massive regression of forested areas in both hemispheres. Two main factors have to be taken into account to explain these changes in comparison to today's potential vegetation: a generally cooler and drier climate and a lower level of atmospheric CO2. In order to assess the relative impact of climate and atmospheric CO2 changes on the global vegetation, we simulate the potential modern vegetation and the glacial vegetation with the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, driven by outputs from the IPSL_CM4_v1 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, under modern or glacial CO2 levels for photosynthesis. ORCHIDEE correctly reproduces the broad features of the glacial vegetation. Our modelling results support the view that the physiological effect of glacial CO2 is a key factor to explain vegetation changes during glacial times. In our simulations, the low atmospheric CO2 is the only driver of the tropical forests regression, and explains half of the response of temperate and boreal forests to glacial conditions. Our study shows that the sensitivity to CO2 changes depends on the background climate over a region, and also depends on the vegetation type, needleleaf trees being much more sensitive than broadleaf trees in our model. This difference of sensitivity leads to a dominance of broadleaf types in the remaining simulated forests, which is not supported by pollen data, but nonetheless suggests a potential impact of CO2 on the glacial vegetation assemblages. It also modifies the competitivity between the trees and makes the amplitude of the response to CO2 dependent on the initial vegetation state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: During the last decade, Arctic icebreaker and nuclear submarine expeditions have revealed large-scale Pleistocene glacial erosion on the Lomonosov Ridge, Chukchi Borderland and along the Northern Alaskan margin indicating that the glacial Arctic Ocean hosted large Antarctic-style ice shelves. Dating of sediment cores indicates that the most extensive and deepest ice grounding occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. The precise extents of Pleistocene ice shelves in the Arctic Ocean are unknown but seem comparable to present existing Antarctic ice shelves. How would an Antarctic-style ice shelf in the MIS 6 Arctic Ocean influence the Northern Hemisphere climate? Could it have impacted on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the MIS 6 Eurasian ice sheet and contributed to its large southward extent? We use an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) to investigate the climatic impacts of both a limited MIS 6 ice shelf covering portions of the Canada Basin and a fully ice shelf covered Arctic Ocean. The AGCM results show that both ice shelves cause a temperature cooling of about 3 °C over the Arctic Ocean mainly due to the combined effect of ice elevation and isolation from the underlying ocean heat fluxes stopping the snow cover from melting during summer. The calculated SMB of the ice shelves are positive. The ice front horizontal velocity of the Canada Basin ice shelf is estimated to ≈ 1 km yr−1 which is comparable to the recent measurements of the Ross ice shelf, Antarctica. The existence of a large continuous ice shelf covering the entire Arctic Ocean would imply a mean annual velocity of icebergs of ≈12 km yr−1 through the Fram Strait. Our modeling results show that both ice shelf configurations could be viable under the MIS 6 climatic conditions. However, the cooling caused by these ice shelves only affects the Arctic margins of the continental ice sheets and is not strong enough to significantly influence the surface mass balance of the entire MIS 6 Eurasian ice sheet. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent geologically-based reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet show that during the peak Saalian (≈140 kya) the ice sheet was larger over Eurasia than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at ≈21 kya. To address this problem we use the LMDZ4 atmospheric general circulation model to evaluate the impact on the Saalian ice sheet''s surface mass balance (SMB) from proglacial lakes, dust deposition on snow, vegetation and sea surface temperatures (SST) since geological records suggest that these environmental parameters were different during the two glacial periods. Seven model simulations have been carried out. Dust deposition decreases the mean SMB by intensifying surface melt during summer while proglacial lakes cool the summer climate and reduce surface melt on the ice sheet. A simulation including both proglacial lakes and dust shows that the presence of the former parameter reduces the impact of the latter, in particular, during summer. A switch from needle-leaf to tundra vegetation affects the regional climate but not enough to significantly influence the SMB of the nearby ice margin. However, a steady-state vegetation in equilibrium with the climate should be computed to improve the boundary conditions for further evaluations of the vegetation impact on the ice sheet''s SMB. Finally, changes of the SST broadly affect the regional climate with significant consequences for the SMB. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Middle Pliocene (around 3 Ma) is a period characterized by a climate significantly warmer than today, at the global scale, as attested by abundant paleoclimate archives as well as several climate modelling studies. There we perform a detailed compari son between climate model results and climate reconstructions in western Europe and the Mediterranean area. This region is particularly well suited for such a comparison as several climate reconstructions from local pollen records covering the Mid-Pliocene provide quantitative terrestrial climate estimates. They show evidence for temperatures significantly warmer than today over the whole area, mean annual precipitation higher in northwestern Europe and equivalent to modern values in its southwestern part. To improve our comparison, we have performed high resolution simulations of the Mid- Pliocene climate using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid which allows a finer resolution over Europe. In a first step, we applied the PRISM2 (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping) boundary conditions except that we used modern terrestrial vegetation. Second, we simulated the vegetation for this period by forcing the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE with the climatic outputs from the AGCM. We then supplied this simulated terrestrial vegetation cover as an additional boundary condition in a second AGCM run. This gives us the opportunity not only to compare the generated vegetation cover to pollen records but also to investigate the model's sensitivity to the simulated vegetation changes in a global warming context. Model results and data show a great consistency for mean annual temperatures, indicating increases by up to 4°C in the study area. Comparison of the simulated winter and summer temperatures to pollen-based estimates show some disparities, in particular in the northern Mediterranean sector. The latitudinal distribution of precipitation depicted by pollen data over land is not reproduced by the model. Most excess Mid-Pliocene precipitation occurs over the North Atlantic but a slight weakening of the atmospheric transport does not allow for wetter conditions to establish in northwestern Europe, as suggested by the data. Continental moisture patterns predicted by the model are similar to those of the mean annual precipitation. Model results broadly underestimate the levels of available moisture indicated by the data. The biogeophysical effects due to the changes in vegetation simulated by ORCHIDEE, are weak, both in terms of the hydrological cycle and of the temperatures, at the regional scale of the European and Mediterranean mid-latitudes. In particular, they do not contribute to improve the model-data comparison. Their main influence concerns seasonal temperatures, with a decrease of the temperatures of the warmest month, and an overall reduction of the intensity of the continental hydrological cycle. Predicted climatic changes do not only arise from local processes but also result from an altered large-scale circulation initiated by regional-scale land cover changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to assess potential future Antarctic surface mass balance changes, the underlying mechanisms, and the impact of these changes on global sea level. To this end, this paper presents simulations of the Antarctic climate for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The simulations were carried out with a stretched-grid atmospheric general circulation model, allowing for high horizontal resolution (60 km) over Antarctica. It is found that the simulated present-day surface mass balance is skilful on continental scales. Errors on regional scales are moderate when observed sea surface conditions are used; more significant regional biases appear when sea surface conditions from a coupled model run are prescribed. The simulated Antarctic surface mass balance increases by 32 mm water equivalent per year in the next century, corresponding to a sea level decrease of 1.2 mm year−1 by the end of the twenty-first century. This surface mass balance increase is largely due to precipitation changes, while changes in snow melt and turbulent latent surface fluxes are weak. The temperature increase leads to an increased moisture transport towards the interior of the continent because of the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air, but changes in atmospheric dynamics, in particular off the Antarctic coast, regionally modulate this signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen limitation of ecosystem productivity is ubiquitous, and it is thought that it has and will have a significant impact on net ecosystem productivity, and thus carbon sequestration, in the context of ongoing future increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, many vegetation models do not represent nitrogen limitation, and might thus overestimate future terrestrial C sequestration. This work presents a simple parameterization of nitrogen limitation that can be easily implemented in vegetation models which do not yet include a complete nitrogen cycle. This parameterization is based on the ratio between heterotrophic respiration (considered a "proxy" of net mineralization rate) and net primary productivity of the ecosystem (considered a "proxy" of nitrogen demand). It is implemented in a global vegetation model and tested against site experiments of CO2 fertilization and soil warming. Furthermore, global simulations of past and future CO2 fertilization are carried out and compared to other model results and available estimates of global C sequestration. It is shown that when N limitation is taken into account using the simple parameterization presented here, the model reproduces fairly realistically the carbon dynamics observed under CO2 fertilization and soil warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C-1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil temperature (Ts) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of Ts determines the activelayer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing Ts not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960-2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010±0.003 to 0.031±0.005 ±C yr-1. Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Ta) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61% of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5% of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021±0.008 ±C yr-1, mean±standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012±0.001 ±C yr-1), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1m depth across the models (R= -0:85, P = 0:003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = -0:30, P D 0:438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to Ts at 1m is estimated to be of -2.80±0.67 million km² ±C-1. Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39±14±103 and 75±14±103 km² yr-1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9-18% degradation of the current permafrost area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost soils and arctic wetlands methane emissions represent an important challenge for modeling the future climate. Here we present a process‐based model designed to correctly represent the main thermal, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes related to these emissions for general land surface modeling. We propose a new multilayer soil carbon and gas module within the Interaction Soil‐Biosphere‐Atmosphere (ISBA) land‐surface model (LSM). This module represents carbon pools, vertical carbon dynamics, and both oxic and anoxic organic matter decomposition. It also represents the soil gas processes for CH4, CO2, and O2 through the soil column. We base CH4 production and oxydation on an O2 control instead of the classical water table level strata approach used in state‐of‐the‐art soil CH4 models. We propose a new parametrization of CH4 oxydation using recent field experiments and use an explicit O2 limitation for soil carbon decomposition. Soil gas transport is computed explicitly, using a revisited formulation of plant‐mediated transport, a new representation of gas bulk diffusivity in porous media closer to experimental observations, and an innovative advection term for ebullition. We evaluate this advanced model on three climatically distinct sites : two in Greenland (Nuuk and Zackenberg) and one in Siberia (Chokurdakh). The model realistically reproduces methane and carbon dioxide emissions from both permafrosted and nonpermafrosted sites. The evolution and vertical characteristics of the underground processes leading to these fluxes are consistent with current knowledge. Results also show that physics is the main driver of methane fluxes, and the main source of variability appears to be the water table depth. Key Points: A vertically discretized soil carbon and methane emission module controlled by the O2 profile is developedNew parametrization of gas bulk diffusivity, methanotrophy, and ebullition are introduced; representations of many processes are revisitedThe model correctly represents methane fluxes and subsurface processes at three arctic sites, with and without permafrost [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near‐surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short‐lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate models show strong links between Antarctic and global temperature both in future and in glacial climate simulations. Past Antarctic temperatures can be estimated from measurements of water stable isotopes along the EPICA Dome C ice core over the past 800 000 years. Here we focus on the reliability of the relative intensities of glacial and interglacial periods derived from the stable isotope profile. The consistency between stable isotope-derived temperature and other environmental and climatic proxies measured along the EDC ice core is analysed at the orbital scale and compared with estimates of global ice volume. MIS 2, 12 and 16 appear as the strongest glacial maxima, while MIS 5.5 and 11 appear as the warmest interglacial maxima. The links between EDC temperature, global temperature, local and global radiative forcings are analysed. We show: (i) a strong but changing link between EDC temperature and greenhouse gas global radiative forcing in the first and second part of the record; (ii) a large residual signature of obliquity in EDC temperature with a 5ky lag; (iii) the exceptional character of temperature variations within interglacial periods. Focusing on MIS 5.5, the warmest interglacial of EDC record, we show that orbitally forced coupled climate models only simulate a precession-induced shift of the Antarctic seasonal cycle of temperature. While they do capture annually persistent Greenland warmth, models fail to capture the warming indicated by Antarctic ice core δD. We suggest that the model-data mismatch may result from the lack of feedbacks between ice sheets and climate including both local Antarctic effects due to changes in ice sheet topography and global effects due to meltwater–thermohaline circulation interplays. An MIS 5.5 sensitivity study conducted with interactive Greenland melt indeed induces a slight Antarctic warming. We suggest that interglacial EDC optima are caused by transient heat transport redistribution comparable with glacial north–south seesaw abrupt climatic changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]