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Systematic conservation planning has rapidly advanced in the past decade and has been increasingly incorporated in multiple studies and conservation projects. One of its requirements is a quantitative definition of conservation targets. While the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to expand the world's protected area network to 17% of the land surface, in many cases such uniform policy-driven targets may not be appropriate for achieving persistence of various species. Targets are often set arbitrarily, often because information required for the persistence of each species is unavailable or unknown in the focal region. Conservation planners therefore need to establish complementary novel approaches to address the gaps in setting targets. Here, we develop and present a novel method that aims to help guide the selection of conservation targets, providing support for decision makers, planners, and managers. This is achieved by examining the overall flexibility of the conservation network resulting from conservation prioritization, and aiming for greater flexibility. To test this approach we applied the decision support tool Marxan to determine marine conservation priority areas in the eastern Mediterranean Sea as a case study. We assessed the flexibility of the conservation network by comparing 80 different scenarios in which conservation targets were gradually increased and assessed by a range of calculated metrics (e.g., the percentage of the total area selected, the overall connectivity). We discovered that when conservation targets were set too low (i.e., below 10% of the distribution range of each species), very few areas were identified as irreplaceable and the conservation network was not well defined. interestingly, when conservation targets were set too high (over 50% of the species' range), too many conservation priority areas were selected as irreplaceable, an outcome which is realistically infeasible to implement. As a general guideline, we found that flexibility in a conservation network is adequate when ~ 10--20% of the study area is considered irreplaceable (selection frequency values over 90%). This approach offers a useful sensitivity analysis when applying target-based systematic conservation planning tools, ensuring that the resulting protected area conservation network offers more choices for managers and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Mediterranean Sea, socio-economic drivers may accelerate the process of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) declarations. Despite the challenges, the EEZ declarations may provide important opportunities for leveraging change to national policy towards the development of large-scale conservation of marine ecosystems and biodiversity in this zone. Using the Mediterranean Sea as a case study, we aim to highlight a set of best practices that will maximize the potential for the development of large-scale marine conservation initiatives. These include a range of approaches, such as using surrogates to fill the many biodiversity data gaps in the region, further the development of consistent and open access databases, and the utilization of technological developments to improve monitoring, research and surveillance of less accessible and under-explored marine areas. The integration of Mediterranean-wide and local conservation efforts, the facilitation of transboundary collaboration, and the establishment of regional funds for conservation will further enhance opportunities for marine conservation in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explicitly including cost in marine conservation planning is essential for achieving feasible and efficient conservation outcomes. Yet, spatial priorities for marine conservation are still often based solely on biodiversity hotspots, species richness, and/or cumulative threat maps. This study aims to provide an approach for including cost when planning large-scale Marine Protected Area (MPA) networks that span multiple countries. Here, we explore the incorporation of cost in the complex setting of the Mediterranean Sea. In order to include cost in conservation prioritization, we developed surrogates that account for revenue from multiple marine sectors: commercial fishing, noncommercial fishing, and aquaculture. Such revenue can translate into an opportunity cost for the implementation of an MPA network. Using the software Marxan, we set conservation targets to protect 10% of the distribution of 77 threatened marine species in the Mediterranean Sea. We compared nine scenarios of opportunity cost by calculating the area and cost required to meet our targets. We further compared our spatial priorities with those that are considered consensus areas by several proposed prioritization schemes in the Mediterranean Sea, none of which explicitly considers cost. We found that for less than 10% of the Sea's area, our conservation targets can be achieved while incurring opportunity costs of less than 1%. In marine systems, we reveal that area is a poor cost surrogate and that the most effective surrogates are those that account for multiple sectors or stakeholders. Furthermore, our results indicate that including cost can greatly influence the selection of spatial priorities for marine conservation of threatened species. Although there are known limitations in multinational large-scale planning, attempting to devise more systematic and rigorous planning methods is especially critical given that collaborative conservation action is on the rise and global financial crisis restricts conservation investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Multinational collaboration is important for successfully protecting marine environments. However, few studies have assessed the costs and benefits incurred by taking collaborative action. One of the most complex marine regions in the world is the Mediterranean Sea biodiversity hotspot. The sea is shared by over 20 countries across three continents with a vast array of socio-economic and political backgrounds. We aimed to examine how collaboration between countries of the Mediterranean Sea affects conservation plans when costs and threats are considered. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We compared three collaboration scenarios to test the efficiencies of coordinated marine conservation efforts: full coordination between Mediterranean countries, partial coordination within continents and no coordination where countries act in isolation. To do so, we developed four basin-wide surrogates for commercial and recreational fishing effort in the Mediterranean Sea. Using a systematic decision support tool ( Marxan), we minimized the opportunity costs while meeting a suite of biodiversity targets. Results We discovered that to reach the same conservation targets, a plan where all the countries of the Mediterranean Sea collaborate can save over two-thirds of the cost of a plan where each country acts independently. The benefits of multinational collaboration are surprisingly unequal between countries. Main conclusions This approach, which incorporates biodiversity, costs and collaboration into a systematic conservation plan, can help deliver efficient conservation outcomes when planning spatially explicit actions within marine environments shared by many countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To examine whether at a subcontinental-scale ecotonal areas of transition between vegetation communities are at higher risk of plant invasion. Location South Africa and Lesotho. Methods Using plant data on native and established alien species in South Africa, we examined the relationship between plant richness (native and alien) in each grid cell (quarter-degree resolution) in the study area and the distance of the grid cell to the nearest ecotone between vegetation communities. We used a residual analysis to estimate each grid cell's relative invasibility (i.e. susceptibility to invasion) relative to its ecotone distance. We further explored the relative importance of ecotones in relation to large-scale environmental variation, and the importance of ecotonal spatial heterogeneity, in structuring alien species richness patterns. Results Both alien and native richness patterns become higher with declining distance to ecotones, suggesting that transitional environments are more susceptible to invasion than areas located farther away; however, levels of invasibility vary across South Africa. The negative relationship between ecotone distance and alien species richness remained negative and significant for the whole of South Africa, grassland and Nama-Karoo, after controlling for environmental variables. Several sources of environmental heterogeneity, which were shown here to be associated with ecotones, were also found to be important determinants of alien species richness. Main conclusions While most of the current conservation efforts at the regional and global scales are currently directed to distinct ecosystems, our results suggest that much more effort should be directed to the transitions between them, which are small in size and have high native richness, but are also under greater threat from invasive alien species. Understanding how alien species richness and invasibility change across transitions and sharp gradients, where environmental heterogeneity is high, is important for ongoing conservation planning in a biogeographical context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding the response of species to ecotones and habitat edges is essential to designing conservation management, especially in mosaic agricultural landscapes. This study examines how species diversity and composition change with distance from semi-natural habitats, over ecotones into agricultural fields, and how within-site patterns of community transition change across a climatic gradient and differ between crop types. Location A total of 19 sites in Israel where semi-natural habitats border agricultural fields (wheat fields or olive groves) distributed along a sharp climatic gradient ranging between 100 and 800 mm mean annual rainfall. Methods We performed butterfly surveys in 2006. We analysed species richness (α-diversity), diversity, community nestedness and species turnover (β-diversity) within sites and between sites (γ-diversity). We also assessed where species of conservation concern occurred. Results In wheat sites, richness and diversity declined abruptly from ecotones to fields and remained homogenously poor throughout the fields, regardless of climate. In olive sites, despite the sharp structural boundary, richness and diversity remained high from the semi-natural habitat to the grove margins and then declined gradually into groves. Species of conservation concern occurred across all habitats at olive sites, but none were found inside wheat fields or at their ecotones. The contrast in community structure between semi-natural habitats and fields was affected by both climate and field type. Irrigation in arid regions did not augment species diversity. Main conclusions Our results indicate that consideration of crop type, within a climatic context, should receive high priority in biodiversity conservation in agricultural areas. In 'hostile' crops, such as wheat, we suggest favouring a combination of high-intensity management and wide margins over less intensive management without margins, which may merely aid generalist butterfly species. The scarcity of butterflies in arid irrigated fields suggests a need to carefully assess the effects of irrigation and agrochemicals on species' communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerating rates of international trade, travel, and transport in the latter half of the twentieth century have led to the progressive mixing of biota from across the world and the number of species introduced to new regions continues to increase. The importance of biogeographic, climatic, economic, and demographic factors as drivers of this trend is increasingly being realized but as yet there is no consensus regarding their relative importance. Whereas little may be done to mitigate the effects of geography and climate on invasions, a wider range of options may exist to moderate the impacts of economic and demographic drivers. Here we use the most recent data available from Europe to partition between macroecological, economic, and demographic variables the variation in alien species richness of bryophytes, fungi, vascular plants, terrestrial insects, aquatic invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Only national wealth and human population density were statistically significant predictors in the majority of models when analyzed jointly with climate, geography, and land cover. The economic and demographic variables reflect the intensity of human activities and integrate the effect of factors that directly determine the outcome of invasion such as propagule pressure, pathways of introduction, eutrophication, and the intensity of anthropogenic disturbance. The strong influence of economic and demographic variables on the levels of invasion by alien species demonstrates that future solutions to the problem of biological invasions at a national scale lie in mitigating the negative environmental consequences of human activities that generate wealth and by promoting more sustainable population growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim As urban landscapes expand, shifts in biodiversity are occurring. This is leading biogeographers and ecologists to consider human-dominated landscapes in their current work. One question that arises is: what characterizes those species that are widespread in the most highly urban environments compared with those restricted to less urbanized areas in the city? Here, we aim to identify the traits that enable species to become urban exploiters, i.e. to dominate highly urbanized surroundings. Identifying these traits may help us better predict and possibly mitigate the biotic homogenization occurring in these areas. Location Israel in general, with special focus on the city of Jerusalem. Methods Combining literature and field-based data for birds in Israel we compared phenotypic, behavioural and life-history traits between urban exploiters and urban adapters. The latter occur in urban landscapes, but are characteristic of the less urbanized parts of the city. We then examined the trends along a finer field-sampled gradient of increasing urbanization from sub-natural to downtown areas within the city of Jerusalem. Results Urban exploiters and adapters differed primarily in social structure and migratory status: exploiters were significantly more social and sedentary than urban adapters. Clear trends were also seen for dietary preferences along a gradient of increasing urbanization in Jerusalem, such that, with increasing urbanization, the proportion of granivorous species increased whereas the proportion of species feeding on invertebrates declined. In contrast, neither relative brain size nor behavioural flexibility, as measured by feeding innovations, differed significantly among urban exploiters and adapters in Israel or along the urbanization gradient in Jerusalem specifically. Main conclusions The results of our study suggest that being successful in more vs. less urbanized environments in the city is not necessarily a factor of brain size nor of how flexible and behaviourally innovative the species is; rather, it depends on a combination of traits, including diet, degree of sociality, sedentariness and preferred nesting sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: We aimed to investigate how an invasive cavity-breeding bird, the common (Indian) myna, and a native nest predator, the common brushtail possum, influence urban nest box use by native birds in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. We quantified nest box use by invasive and native species, assessed nesting success and failure rates, and explored what environmental factors might influence nest box occupancy and nesting success. We found that the native possums were the most common nest box users and that possum occupancy of boxes was associated with higher rates of nesting failures by all bird species. More common myna nesting attempts were observed in areas where mynas have been established longer. We found no evidence of a significant negative impact by the common myna on other birds in our study locations, which may be partly due to the low rates of use of our nest boxes by native birds. Nevertheless, better nest box design and guidelines for setting them up are needed if we aim to provide more nesting opportunities for native birds to replace the decline in big old cavity trees. Many bird species in Australia require tree hollows for breeding. However, assessing the benefits of urban nest boxes to native birds requires frequent monitoring that allows to assess nesting success. To better understand the benefits of nest boxes for native birds, we examined the impact of local habitat characteristics, invasive species (common myna, Acridotheres tristis), and native mammalian predators on urban nest box use and nesting success of native birds. We installed 216 nest boxes across nine locations in southeastern Australia (S.E. Queensland and northern New South Wales) in both long-invaded sites (invaded before 1970) and more recently invaded sites (after 1990). We monitored all boxes weekly over two breeding seasons. We recorded seven bird species and three mammal species using the nest boxes. Weekly box occupancy by all species averaged 8% of all boxes, with the species most frequently recorded in the nest boxes being the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), a native cavity user and nest predator. We recorded 137 nesting attempts in the boxes across all bird species. The most frequent nesting species were the invasive alien common mynas (72 nesting attempts). We recorded an average nesting failure rate of 53.3% for all bird species. We did not record any common mynas evicting other nesting birds, and found that several native species used the same box after the common myna completed its nesting. We recorded native possums in 92% of the boxes, and possum occupancy of boxes per site was negatively correlated with bird nesting success (p = 0.021). These results suggest that when boxes are accessible to invasive species and native predators, they are unlikely to significantly improve nesting opportunities for native birds. To ensure efficient use of limited conservation resources, nest boxes should be designed to target species of high conservation importance and limit other species of both predators and competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Biological invasions are major contributors to global change and native biodiversity decline. However, they are overlooked in marine conservation plans. Here, we examine for the first time the extent to which marine conservation planning research has addressed (or ignored) biological invasions. Furthermore, we explore the change of spatial priorities in conservation plans when different approaches are used to incorporate the presence and impacts of invasive species. Location Global analysis with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea region. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review consisting of three steps: (1) article selection using a search engine, (2) abstract screening and (3) review of pertinent articles, which were identified in the second step. The information extracted included the scale and geographical location of each case study as well as the approach followed regarding invasive species. We also applied the software Marxan to produce and compare conservation plans for the Mediterranean Sea that either protect, or avoid areas impacted by invasives, or ignore the issue. One case study focused on the protection of critical habitats, and the other on endemic fish species. Results We found that of 119 papers on marine spatial plans in specific biogeographic regions, only three (2.5%) explicitly took into account invasive species. When comparing the different conservation plans for each case study, we found that the majority of selected sites for protection (ca. 80%) changed in the critical habitat case study, while this proportion was lower but substantial (27%) in the endemic fish species case study. Main conclusions Biological invasions are being widely disregarded when planning for conservation in the marine environment across local to global scales. More explicit consideration of biological invasions can significantly alter spatial conservation priorities. Future conservation plans should explicitly account for biological invasions to optimize the selection of marine protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By‐catch is the most significant direct threat marine megafauna face at the global scale. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of megafauna by‐catch are still poorly understood, especially in regions with very limited monitoring and expanding fisheries. The Indian Ocean is a globally important region for megafauna biodiversity and for tuna fisheries, but has limited by‐catch data. Anecdotal and scattered information indicates high by‐catch could be a major threat. Here, we adapt a Productivity Susceptibility Analysis tool designed for data‐poor contexts to present the first spatially explicit estimates of by‐catch risk of sea turtles, elasmobranchs, and cetaceans in the three major tuna fishing gears (purse seines, longlines, and drift gill nets). Our assessment highlights a potential opportunity for multi‐taxa conservation benefits by concentrating management efforts in particular coastal regions. Most coastal waters in the northern Indian Ocean, including countries that have had a minimal engagement with regional management bodies, stand out as high risk for fisheries interactions. In addition to species known to occur in tuna gears, we find high vulnerability to multiple gear types for many poorly known elasmobranchs that do not fall under any existing conservation and management measures. Our results indicate that current by‐catch mitigation measures, which focus on safe‐release practices, are unlikely to adequately reduce the substantial cumulative fishing impacts on vulnerable species. Preventative solutions that reduce interactions with non‐target species (such as closed areas or seasons, or modifications to gear and fishing tactics) are crucial for alleviating risks to megafauna from fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nesting cavities are often a limited resource that multiple species use. There is an ongoing discussion on whether invasive cavity nesting birds restrict the availability of this key limited resource. While the answer to this question has important conservation implications, little experimental work has been done to examine it. Here, we aimed to experimentally test whether alien cavity nesting birds affect the occupancy of cavities and the resulting breeding success of native cavity breeders in a large urban park located in Tel Aviv, Israel. Over three breeding seasons, we manipulated the entry size of nest boxes and compared the occupancy and breeding success of birds in nest boxes of two treatments. These included nest boxes with large-entrance and small-entrance holes. The large-entrance holes allowed access for both the native and invasive birds (the two main aliens in the park are the common mynas and rose-ringed parakeets). The smaller-entrance boxes, on the other hand, allowed only the smaller sized native cavity breeders (great tits and house sparrows) to enter the boxes but prevented the alien species from entering. We found that the large-entrance nest boxes were occupied by five different bird species, comprising three natives (great tit, house sparrow, Scops owl) and two invasive species (common myna, rose-ringed parakeet) while the small-entrance boxes were only occupied by the two native species. The alien common mynas and rose-ringed parakeets occupied 77.5% of the large-entrance nest boxes whereas native species, mainly great tits, occupied less than 9% of the large-entrance boxes and 36.5% of the small-entrance boxes. When examining the occupancy of those cavities that were not occupied by the aliens, natives occupied both the small and large-entrance nest boxes equally. Three quarters (78%) of the great tits breeding in the large-entrance boxes were usurped by common mynas during the breeding season and as a result breeding success was significantly lower for great tits breeding in the large-entrance boxes compared with the small-entrance boxes. The results of this study suggests that the invasive alien species can reduce the breeding potential of native cavity breeders both by exploiting the limited breeding resource (nest cavities) and by directly usurping cavities already occupied by the native species. Since the majority of large-entrance nest boxes were occupied by the larger alien birds, less native species bred in the limited number of unoccupied large-entrance nest boxes because of exploitation competition. We propose that for management purposes, nest-box programs that alter the entrance size of available natural cavities may be a practical approach, reducing the competition between native cavity breeders and alien invasive birds, and especially benefiting the smaller native cavity breeders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Conservation plans often struggle to account for connectivity in spatial prioritization approaches for the protection of migratory species. Protection of such species is challenging because their movements may be uncertain and variable, span vast distances, cross international borders and traverse land and sea habitats. Often we are faced with small samples of information from various sources and the collection of additional data can be costly and time-consuming. Therefore it is important to evaluate what degree of spatial information provides sufficient results for directing management actions. Here we develop and evaluate an approach that incorporates habitat and movement information to advance the conservation of migratory species. We test our approach using information on threatened loggerhead sea turtles ( C aretta caretta) in the Mediterranean. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We use Marxan, a spatially explicit decision support tool, to select priority conservation areas. Four approaches with increasing amounts of information about the loggerhead sea turtle are compared, ranging from (1) the broad distribution, (2) multiple habitat types that represent foraging, nesting and inter-nesting habitats, (3) mark-recapture movement information to (4) telemetry-derived migration tracks. Results We find that spatial priorities for sea turtle conservation are sensitive to the information used in the prioritization process. Setting conservation targets for migration tracks altered the location of conservation priorities, indicating that conservation plans designed without such data would miss important sea turtle habitat. We discover that even a small number of tracks make a significant contribution to a spatial conservation plan if those tracks are substantially different. Main conclusions This study presents a novel approach to improving spatial prioritization for conserving migratory species. We propose that future telemetry studies tailor their efforts towards conservation prioritization needs, meaning that spatially dispersed samples rather than just large numbers should be obtained. This work highlights the valuable information that telemetry research contributes to the conservation of migratory species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecosystems are complex socio-ecological systems where sustainable solutions can be best gained by satisfying both conservation and socioeconomic demands. Concretely, the Mediterranean Sea is facing a huge demand of resources and marine activities while hosting abundant and unique biodiversity. It is considered an important elasmobranch hotspot where seventy-two elasmobranch species are present in the basin. Despite the recognised importance of elasmobranchs as umbrella species, to date only a small number of marine protected areas have been designated towards their protection. The paucity of spatially-explicit abundance data on elasmobranchs often precludes the designation of these areas to protect these marine predators. Here, we aimed to identify marine areas to protect elasmobranch species by means of a systematic spatial planning approach. We first estimated the spatial distribution of five elasmobranch species (three sharks and two rays) in the western Mediterranean Sea and then applied Marxan decision support tools to find priority marine conservation areas. We found that the five elasmobranchs are distributed in coastal and slope areas of the southern waters of the study area while in the northern region they are abundant in the continental slope and towards offshore waters. Conservation priority areas were identified in the southern part of the western Mediterranean. Adding more complex cost layers and zoning to the analysis did not alter conservation priority areas, confirming such areas are highly consistent and highly important for elasmobranch protection. The marine conservation priority areas identified here can contribute to designate a proactive area-based protection strategy towards elasmobranch conservation, related species and the habitats that they depend in the western Mediterranean Sea. • Proactive area-based protection strategy towards elasmobranch conservation is proposed. • Elasmobranch conservation priority areas were identified in the southern part of the western Mediterranean Sea. • The addition of complex cost layers and zoning strategy did not alter conservation priority areas for elasmobranchs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Backyard conservation is a community-based approach aiming to weave traditional knowledge, management practices, customary land ownership, and Indigenous-driven solutions with other scientific knowledge to enhance conservation. The islands of Papua New Guinea (PNG) provide an important example towards understanding the role of backyard conservation in culturally diverse and complex societies., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, has important links to biodiversity loss and ecosystem health. These links range from anthropogenic activities driving zoonotic disease emergence and extend to the pandemic affecting biodiversity conservation, environmental policy, ecosystem services, and multiple conservation facets. Crucially, such effects can exacerbate the initial drivers, resulting in feedback loops that are likely to promote future zoonotic disease outbreaks. We explore these feedback loops and relationships, highlighting known and potential zoonotic disease emergence drivers (eg, land-use change, intensive livestock production, wildlife trade, and climate change), and discuss direct and indirect effects of the ongoing pandemic on biodiversity loss and ecosystem health. We stress that responses to COVID-19 must include actions aimed at safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems, in order to avoid future emergence of zoonoses and prevent their wide-ranging effects on human health, economies, and society. Such responses would benefit from adopting a One Health approach, enhancing cross-sector, transboundary communication, as well as from collaboration among multiple actors, promoting planetary and human health., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The deep sea (>200 m depth) encompasses >95% of the world's ocean volume and represents the largest and least explored biome on Earth (<0.0001% of ocean surface), yet is increasingly under threat from multiple direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures. Our ability to preserve both benthic and pelagic deep-sea ecosystems depends upon effective ecosystem-based management strategies and monitoring based on widely agreed deep-sea ecological variables. Here, we identify a set of deep-sea essential ecological variables among five scientific areas of the deep ocean: (1) biodiversity; (2) ecosystem functions; (3) impacts and risk assessment; (4) climate change, adaptation and evolution; and (5) ecosystem conservation. Conducting an expert elicitation (1,155 deep-sea scientists consulted and 112 respondents), our analysis indicates a wide consensus amongst deep-sea experts that monitoring should prioritize large organisms (that is, macro- and megafauna) living in deep waters and in benthic habitats, whereas monitoring of ecosystem functioning should focus on trophic structure and biomass production. Habitat degradation and recovery rates are identified as crucial features for monitoring deep-sea ecosystem health, while global climate change will likely shift bathymetric distributions and cause local extinction in deep-sea species. Finally, deep-sea conservation efforts should focus primarily on vulnerable marine ecosystems and habitat-forming species. Deep-sea observation efforts that prioritize these variables will help to support the implementation of effective management strategies on a global scale.

Human-mediated translocation of species to areas beyond their natural distribution (which results in 'alien' populations 1 ) is a key signature of the Anthropocene 2 , and is a primary global driver of biodiversity loss and environmental change 3 . Stemming the tide of invasions requires understanding why some species fail to establish alien populations, and others succeed. To achieve this, we need to integrate the effects of features of the introduction site, the species introduced and the specific introduction event. Determining which, if any, location-level factors affect the success of establishment has proven difficult, owing to the multiple spatial, temporal and phylogenetic axes along which environmental variation may influence population survival. Here we apply Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis to a global spatially and temporally explicit database of introduction events of alien birds 4 to show that environmental conditions at the introduction location, notably climatic suitability and the presence of other groups of alien species, are the primary determinants of successful establishment. Species-level traits and the size of the founding population (propagule pressure) exert secondary, but important, effects on success. Thus, current trajectories of anthropogenic environmental change will most probably facilitate future incursions by alien species, but predicting future invasions will require the integration of multiple location-, species- and event-level characteristics.