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Objective: To examine whether genetic variation affecting the expression or function of lipid-lowering drug targets is associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) risk, to evaluate the potential impact of long-term exposure to corresponding therapeutics., Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses using variants in genes that encode the protein targets of several approved lipid-lowering drug classes: HMGCR (encoding the target for statins), PCSK9 (encoding the target for PCSK9 inhibitors, eg, evolocumab and alirocumab), NPC1L1 (encoding the target for ezetimibe), and APOB (encoding the target of mipomersen). Variants were weighted by associations with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) using data from lipid genetics consortia (n up to 295,826). We meta-analyzed Mendelian randomization estimates for regional variants weighted by LDL-C on AD risk from 2 large samples (total n = 24,718 cases, 56,685 controls)., Results: Models for HMGCR, APOB, and NPC1L1 did not suggest that the use of related lipid-lowering drug classes would affect AD risk. In contrast, genetically instrumented exposure to PCSK9 inhibitors was predicted to increase AD risk in both of the AD samples (combined odds ratio per standard deviation lower LDL-C inducible by the drug target = 1.45, 95% confidence interval = 1.23-1.69). This risk increase was opposite to, although more modest than, the degree of protection from coronary artery disease predicted by these same methods for PCSK9 inhibition., Interpretation: We did not identify genetic support for the repurposing of statins, ezetimibe, or mipomersen for AD prevention. Notwithstanding caveats to this genetic evidence, pharmacovigilance for AD risk among users of PCSK9 inhibitors may be warranted. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:30-39., (© 2019 The Authors. Annals of Neurology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Neurological Association.)

Recent evidence suggests a link between periodontitis (PD) and hypertension, but the nature of this association remains unclear. The overall aim of this review was to critically appraise the evidence linking these two common disorders. Systematic search was conducted for studies published up to December 2018. Prevalence of hypertension in patients with PD (moderate/severe groups) vs. those without PD (non-PD) was the primary outcome. Additional outcomes included adjusted mean difference in systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure (BP) levels in PD vs. non-PD, assessment of biomarkers in PD and hypertension, and BP changes after periodontal therapy. From 81 studies selected, 40 were included in quantitative meta-analyses. Diagnoses of moderate-severe PD [odds ratio (OR) = 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.35] and severe PD (OR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.05) were associated with hypertension. Prospective studies confirmed PD diagnosis increased likelihood of hypertension occurrence (OR = 1.68; 95% CI: 0.85-3.35). Patients with PD exhibited higher mean SBP [weighted mean difference (WMD) of 4.49 mmHg; 95% CI: 2.88-6.11] and DBP (2.03 mmHg; 95% CI: 1.25-2.81) when compared with non-PD. Lastly, only 5 out of 12 interventional studies confirmed a reduction in BP following periodontal therapy, ranging from 3 to 12.5 mmHg of SBP and from 0 to 10 mmHg of DBP. PD is associated with increased odds of hypertension (SORT C) and higher SBP/DBP levels. The evidence suggesting that PD therapy could reduce BP is inconclusive. Although additional research is warranted on this association, these results suggest that oral health assessment and management of PD could not only improve oral/overall health and quality of life but also be of relevance in the management of patients with hypertension., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Lack of efficacy in the intended disease indication is the major cause of clinical phase drug development failure. Explanations could include the poor external validity of pre-clinical (cell, tissue, and animal) models of human disease and the high false discovery rate (FDR) in preclinical science. FDR is related to the proportion of true relationships available for discovery (γ), and the type 1 (false-positive) and type 2 (false negative) error rates of the experiments designed to uncover them. We estimated the FDR in preclinical science, its effect on drug development success rates, and improvements expected from use of human genomics rather than preclinical studies as the primary source of evidence for drug target identification. Calculations were based on a sample space defined by all human diseases - the 'disease-ome' - represented as columns; and all protein coding genes - 'the protein-coding genome'- represented as rows, producing a matrix of unique gene- (or protein-) disease pairings. We parameterised the space based on 10,000 diseases, 20,000 protein-coding genes, 100 causal genes per disease and 4000 genes encoding druggable targets, examining the effect of varying the parameters and a range of underlying assumptions, on the inferences drawn. We estimated γ, defined mathematical relationships between preclinical FDR and drug development success rates, and estimated improvements in success rates based on human genomics (rather than orthodox preclinical studies). Around one in every 200 protein-disease pairings was estimated to be causal (γ = 0.005) giving an FDR in preclinical research of 92.6%, which likely makes a major contribution to the reported drug development failure rate of 96%. Observed success rate was only slightly greater than expected for a random pick from the sample space. Values for γ back-calculated from reported preclinical and clinical drug development success rates were also close to the a priori estimates. Substituting genome wide (or druggable genome wide) association studies for preclinical studies as the major information source for drug target identification was estimated to reverse the probability of late stage failure because of the more stringent type 1 error rate employed and the ability to interrogate every potential druggable target in the same experiment. Genetic studies conducted at much larger scale, with greater resolution of disease end-points, e.g. by connecting genomics and electronic health record data within healthcare systems has the potential to produce radical improvement in drug development success rate.

Proteins are effector molecules that mediate the functions of genes 1,2 and modulate comorbidities 3-10 , behaviors and drug treatments 11 . They represent an enormous potential resource for personalized, systemic and data-driven diagnosis, prevention, monitoring and treatment. However, the concept of using plasma proteins for individualized health assessment across many health conditions simultaneously has not been tested. Here, we show that plasma protein expression patterns strongly encode for multiple different health states, future disease risks and lifestyle behaviors. We developed and validated protein-phenotype models for 11 different health indicators: liver fat, kidney filtration, percentage body fat, visceral fat mass, lean body mass, cardiopulmonary fitness, physical activity, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, diabetes risk and primary cardiovascular event risk. The analyses were prospectively planned, documented and executed at scale on archived samples and clinical data, with a total of ~85 million protein measurements in 16,894 participants. Our proof-of-concept study demonstrates that protein expression patterns reliably encode for many different health issues, and that large-scale protein scanning 12-16 coupled with machine learning is viable for the development and future simultaneous delivery of multiple measures of health. We anticipate that, with further validation and the addition of more protein-phenotype models, this approach could enable a single-source, individualized so-called liquid health check.

Objective: Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of information on human diseases, but the information is variably structured, fragmented, curated using different coding systems, and collected for purposes other than medical research. We describe an approach for developing, validating, and sharing reproducible phenotypes from national structured EHR in the United Kingdom with applications for translational research., Materials and Methods: We implemented a rule-based phenotyping framework, with up to 6 approaches of validation. We applied our framework to a sample of 15 million individuals in a national EHR data source (population-based primary care, all ages) linked to hospitalization and death records in England. Data comprised continuous measurements (for example, blood pressure; medication information; coded diagnoses, symptoms, procedures, and referrals), recorded using 5 controlled clinical terminologies: (1) read (primary care, subset of SNOMED-CT [Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms]), (2) International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision (secondary care diagnoses and cause of mortality), (3) Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Classification of Surgical Operations and Procedures, Fourth Revision (hospital surgical procedures), and (4) DM+D prescription codes., Results: Using the CALIBER phenotyping framework, we created algorithms for 51 diseases, syndromes, biomarkers, and lifestyle risk factors and provide up to 6 validation approaches. The EHR phenotypes are curated in the open-access CALIBER Portal (https://www.caliberresearch.org/portal) and have been used by 40 national and international research groups in 60 peer-reviewed publications., Conclusions: We describe a UK EHR phenomics approach within the CALIBER EHR data platform with initial evidence of validity and use, as an important step toward international use of UK EHR data for health research., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Background: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9., Methods: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration., Results: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable., Conclusions: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Background & Aims: Excess liver iron content is common and is linked to the risk of hepatic and extrahepatic diseases. We aimed to identify genetic variants influencing liver iron content and use genetics to understand its link to other traits and diseases., Methods: First, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,289 individuals from UK Biobank, whose liver iron level had been quantified by magnetic resonance imaging, before validating our findings in an independent cohort (n = 1,513 from IMI DIRECT). Second, we used Mendelian randomisation to test the causal effects of 25 predominantly metabolic traits on liver iron content. Third, we tested phenome-wide associations between liver iron variants and 770 traits and disease outcomes., Results: We identified 3 independent genetic variants (rs1800562 [C282Y] and rs1799945 [H63D] in HFE and rs855791 [V736A] in TMPRSS6) associated with liver iron content that reached the GWAS significance threshold (p <5 × 10 -8 ). The 2 HFE variants account for ∼85% of all cases of hereditary haemochromatosis. Mendelian randomisation analysis provided evidence that higher central obesity plays a causal role in increased liver iron content. Phenome-wide association analysis demonstrated shared aetiopathogenic mechanisms for elevated liver iron, high blood pressure, cirrhosis, malignancies, neuropsychiatric and rheumatological conditions, while also highlighting inverse associations with anaemias, lipidaemias and ischaemic heart disease., Conclusion: Our study provides genetic evidence that mechanisms underlying higher liver iron content are likely systemic rather than organ specific, that higher central obesity is causally associated with higher liver iron, and that liver iron shares common aetiology with multiple metabolic and non-metabolic diseases., Lay Summary: Excess liver iron content is common and is associated with liver diseases and metabolic diseases including diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease. We identified 3 genetic variants that are linked to an increased risk of developing higher liver iron content. We show that the same genetic variants are linked to higher risk of many diseases, but they may also be associated with some health advantages. Finally, we use genetic variants associated with waist-to-hip ratio as a tool to show that central obesity is causally associated with increased liver iron content., (Copyright © 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. All rights reserved.)

Objectives. Determine the optimal, licensed, first-line anticoagulant for prevention of ischemic stroke in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) in England and Wales from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective and estimate value to decision making of further research. Methods. We developed a cost-effectiveness model to compare warfarin (international normalized ratio target range 2-3) with directly acting (or non-vitamin K antagonist) oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 150 mg, edoxaban 60 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg, over 30 years post treatment initiation. In addition to death, the 17-state Markov model included the events stroke, bleed, myocardial infarction, and intracranial hemorrhage. Input parameters were informed by systematic literature reviews and network meta-analysis. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) were estimated to provide an upper bound on value of further research. Results. At willingness-to-pay threshold £20,000, all DOACs have positive expected incremental net benefit compared to warfarin, suggesting they are likely cost-effective. Apixaban has highest expected incremental net benefit (£7533), followed by dabigatran (£6365), rivaroxaban (£5279), and edoxaban (£5212). There was considerable uncertainty as to the optimal DOAC, with the probability apixaban has highest net benefit only 60%. Total estimated population EVPI was £17.94 million (17.85 million, 18.03 million), with relative effect between apixaban versus dabigatran making the largest contribution with EVPPI of £7.95 million (7.66 million, 8.24 million). Conclusions. At willingness-to-pay threshold £20,000, all DOACs have higher expected net benefit than warfarin but there is considerable uncertainty between the DOACs. Apixaban had the highest expected net benefit and greatest probability of having highest net benefit, but there is considerable uncertainty between DOACs. A head-to-head apixaban versus dabigatran trial may be of value., Competing Interests: The author(s) declared the following potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: HHZT reports personal fees for consultancy work from Pfizer, Novartis Pharma, Hoffman La-Roche, and Eli Lilly and company, all outside this work. NJW and SD report an MRC funded project in collaboration with Pfizer Ltd. Pfizer part-fund a researcher. The project is purely methodological using historical data unrelated to this work. DE reports support from Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer, Bayer, Leo Pharmaceuticals, and Bristol-Myers Squib, all outside this work. The authors declare no support from any other organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any other organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; and no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work

Liver dysfunction and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are consistently associated. However, it is currently unknown whether liver dysfunction contributes to, results from, or is merely correlated with T2D due to confounding. We used Mendelian randomization to investigate the presence and direction of any causal relation between liver function and T2D risk including up to 64,094 T2D case and 607,012 control subjects. Several biomarkers were used as proxies of liver function (i.e., alanine aminotransferase [ALT], aspartate aminotransferase [AST], alkaline phosphatase [ALP], and γ-glutamyl transferase [GGT]). Genetic variants strongly associated with each liver function marker were used to investigate the effect of liver function on T2D risk. In addition, genetic variants strongly associated with T2D risk and with fasting insulin were used to investigate the effect of predisposition to T2D and insulin resistance, respectively, on liver function. Genetically predicted higher circulating ALT and AST were related to increased risk of T2D. There was a modest negative association of genetically predicted ALP with T2D risk and no evidence of association between GGT and T2D risk. Genetic predisposition to higher fasting insulin, but not to T2D, was related to increased circulating ALT. Since circulating ALT and AST are markers of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), these findings provide some support for insulin resistance resulting in NAFLD, which in turn increases T2D risk., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: To effectively prevent, detect, and treat health conditions that affect people during their lifecourse, health-care professionals and researchers need to know which sections of the population are susceptible to which health conditions and at which ages. Hence, we aimed to map the course of human health by identifying the 50 most common health conditions in each decade of life and estimating the median age at first diagnosis., Methods: We developed phenotyping algorithms and codelists for physical and mental health conditions that involve intensive use of health-care resources. Individuals older than 1 year were included in the study if their primary-care and hospital-admission records met research standards set by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and they had been registered in a general practice in England contributing up-to-standard data for at least 1 year during the study period. We used linked records of individuals from the CALIBER platform to calculate the sex-standardised cumulative incidence for these conditions by 10-year age groups between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015. We also derived the median age at diagnosis and prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex, and ethnicity (black, white, south Asian) over the study period from the primary-care and secondary-care records of patients., Findings: We developed case definitions for 308 disease phenotypes. We used records of 2 784 138 patients for the calculation of cumulative incidence and of 3 872 451 patients for the calculation of period prevalence and median age at diagnosis of these conditions. Conditions that first gained prominence at key stages of life were: atopic conditions and infections that led to hospital admission in children (<10 years); acne and menstrual disorders in the teenage years (10-19 years); mental health conditions, obesity, and migraine in individuals aged 20-29 years; soft-tissue disorders and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in individuals aged 30-39 years; dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and erectile dysfunction in individuals aged 40-59 years; cancer, osteoarthritis, benign prostatic hyperplasia, cataract, diverticular disease, type 2 diabetes, and deafness in individuals aged 60-79 years; and atrial fibrillation, dementia, acute and chronic kidney disease, heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, anaemia, and osteoporosis in individuals aged 80 years or older. Black or south-Asian individuals were diagnosed earlier than white individuals for 258 (84%) of the 308 conditions. Bone fractures and atopic conditions were recorded earlier in male individuals, whereas female individuals were diagnosed at younger ages with nutritional anaemias, tubulointerstitial nephritis, and urinary disorders., Interpretation: We have produced the first chronological map of human health with cumulative-incidence and period-prevalence estimates for multiple morbidities in parallel from birth to advanced age. This can guide clinicians, policy makers, and researchers on how to formulate differential diagnoses, allocate resources, and target research priorities on the basis of the knowledge of who gets which diseases when. We have published our phenotyping algorithms on the CALIBER open-access Portal which will facilitate future research by providing a curated list of reusable case definitions., Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and The Alan Turing Institute., (© 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.)

Following numerous genome-wide association studies of disease susceptibility, there is increasing interest in genetic associations with prognosis, survival or other subsequent events. Such associations are vulnerable to index event bias, by which selection of subjects according to disease status creates biased associations if common causes of incidence and prognosis are not accounted for. We propose an adjustment for index event bias using the residuals from the regression of genetic effects on prognosis on genetic effects on incidence. Our approach eliminates this bias when direct genetic effects on incidence and prognosis are independent, and otherwise reduces bias in realistic situations. In a study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, we reverse a paradoxical association of the strong susceptibility gene MUC5B with increased survival, suggesting instead a significant association with decreased survival. In re-analysis of a study of Crohn's disease prognosis, four regions remain associated at genome-wide significance but with increased standard errors.

Background: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising questions about its value for stratification of residual risk., Methods: A variant at chromosome 9p21 (rs1333049) was tested for association with subsequent events during follow-up in 103 357 Europeans with established CHD at baseline from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) Consortium (73.1% male, mean age 62.9 years). The primary outcome, subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction), occurred in 13 040 of the 93 115 participants with available outcome data. Effect estimates were compared with case/control risk obtained from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics) including 47 222 CHD cases and 122 264 controls free of CHD., Results: Meta-analyses revealed no significant association between chromosome 9p21 and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline (GENIUS-CHD odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05). This contrasted with a strong association in CARDIoGRAMPlusC4D odds ratio 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22; P for interaction <0.001 compared with the GENIUS-CHD estimate. Similarly, no clear associations were identified for additional subsequent outcomes, including all-cause death, although we found a modest positive association between chromosome 9p21 and subsequent revascularization (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09)., Conclusions: In contrast to studies comparing individuals with CHD to disease-free controls, we found no clear association between genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and risk of subsequent acute CHD events when all individuals had CHD at baseline. However, the association with subsequent revascularization may support the postulated mechanism of chromosome 9p21 for promoting atheroma development.

Background: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD., Methods: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185 614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events., Results: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with a duration of follow-up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21) and smoking (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints., Conclusions: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and nongenetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators.

Background: Maternal serum concentrations of folate, homocysteine, and vitamin B12 have been associated with pre-eclampsia. Nevertheless, reported studies involve limited number of cases to reliably assess the nature of these associations. Our aim was to examine the relation of these three biomarkers with pre-eclampsia risk in a large Colombian population., Materials and Methods: Design: A case-control study. Setting: Cases of pre-eclampsia and healthy pregnant controls were recruited at the time of delivery from eight different Colombian cities between 2000 and 2012. Population or Sample: 2978 cases and 4096 controls were studied. Maternal serum concentrations of folate, homocysteine, and vitamin B12 were determined in 1148 (43.6%) cases and 1300 (31.7%) controls. Also, self-reported folic acid supplementation was recorded for 2563 (84%) cases and 3155 (84%) controls. Analysis: Adjusted odds ratios (OR) for pre-eclampsia were estimated for one standard deviation (1SD) increase in log-transformed biomarkers. Furthermore, we conducted analyses to compare women that reported taking folic acid supplementation for different periods during pregnancy. Main Outcomes Measures: Odds ratio for pre-eclampsia., Results: After adjusting for potential confounders in logistic regression models, the OR for pre-eclampsia was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) for 1SD increase in log-folate, 1.16 (95%CI: 1.05, 1.27) for 1SD increase in log-homocysteine, and 1.10 (95%CI: 0.99, 1.22) for 1SD increase in log-vitamin B12. No interactions among the biomarkers were identified. Women who self-reported consumption of folic acid (1 mg/day) throughout their pregnancy had an adjusted OR for pre-eclampsia of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.09) compared to women that reported no consumption of folic acid at any point during pregnancy., Conclusions: Maternal serum concentrations of folate were associated as a protective factor for pre-eclampsia while concentrations of homocysteine were associated as a risk factor. No association between maternal vitamin B12 concentrations and preeclampsia was found., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Carotid artery intima media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque are measures of subclinical atherosclerosis associated with ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD). Here, we undertake meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 71,128 individuals for cIMT, and 48,434 individuals for carotid plaque traits. We identify eight novel susceptibility loci for cIMT, one independent association at the previously-identified PINX1 locus, and one novel locus for carotid plaque. Colocalization analysis with nearby vascular expression quantitative loci (cis-eQTLs) derived from arterial wall and metabolic tissues obtained from patients with CHD identifies candidate genes at two potentially additional loci, ADAMTS9 and LOXL4. LD score regression reveals significant genetic correlations between cIMT and plaque traits, and both cIMT and plaque with CHD, any stroke subtype and ischemic stroke. Our study provides insights into genes and tissue-specific regulatory mechanisms linking atherosclerosis both to its functional genomic origins and its clinical consequences in humans.

Background: Chronic inflammation is believed to be a major mechanism underlying the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes. Periodontitis is a cause of systemic inflammation. We aimed to assess the effects of periodontal treatment on glycaemic control in people with type 2 diabetes., Methods: In this 12 month, single-centre, parallel-group, investigator-masked, randomised trial, we recruited patients with type 2 diabetes, moderate-to-severe periodontitis, and at least 15 teeth from four local hospitals and 15 medical or dental practices in the UK. We randomly assigned patients (1:1) using a computer-generated table to receive intensive periodontal treatment (IPT; whole mouth subgingival scaling, surgical periodontal therapy [if the participants showed good oral hygiene practice; otherwise dental cleaning again], and supportive periodontal therapy every 3 months until completion of the study) or control periodontal treatment (CPT; supra-gingival scaling and polishing at the same timepoints as in the IPT group). Treatment allocation included a process of minimisation in terms of diabetes onset, smoking status, sex, and periodontitis severity. Allocation to treatment was concealed in an opaque envelope and revealed to the clinician on the day of first treatment. With the exception of dental staff who performed the treatment and clinical examinations, all study investigators were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was between-group difference in HbA 1c at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN83229304., Findings: Between Oct 1, 2008, and Oct 31, 2012, we randomly assigned 264 patients to IPT (n=133) or CPT (n=131), all of whom were included in the intention-to-treat population. At baseline, mean HbA 1c was 8·1% (SD 1·7) in both groups. After 12 months, unadjusted mean HbA 1c was 8·3% (SE 0·2) in the CPT group and 7·8% (0·2) in the IPT group; with adjustment for baseline HbA 1c , age, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, duration of diabetes, and BMI, HbA 1c was 0·6% (95% CI 0·3-0·9; p<0·0001) lower in the IPT group than in the CPT group. At least one adverse event was reported in 30 (23%) of 133 patients in the IPT group and 23 (18%) of 131 patients in the CPT group. Serious adverse events were reported in 11 (8%) patients in the IPT group, including one (1%) death, and 11 (8%) patients in the CPT group, including three (2%) deaths., Interpretation: Compared with CPT, IPT reduced HbA 1c in patients with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe periodontitis after 12 months. These results suggest that routine oral health assessment and treatment of periodontitis could be important for effective management of type 2 diabetes., Funding: Diabetes UK and UK National Institute for Health Research., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Interleukin 6 (IL6) is an inflammatory cytokine; signaling via its receptor (IL6R) is believed to contribute to development of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). The single nucleotide polymorphism rs2228145 in IL6R associates with increased levels of soluble IL6R (s-IL6R), as well as reduced IL6R signaling and risk of inflammatory disorders; its effects are similar to those of a therapeutic monoclonal antibody that blocks IL6R signaling. We used the effect of rs2228145 on s-IL6R level as an indirect marker to investigate whether reduced IL6R signaling associates with risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD). In a genome-wide meta-analysis of 20,550 patients with CD, 17,647 patients with UC, and more than 40,000 individuals without IBD (controls), we found that rs2228145 (scaled to a 2-fold increase in s-IL6R) was associated with reduced risk of CD (odds ratio 0.876; 95% confidence interval 0.822-0.933; P = .00003) or UC (odds ratio 0.932; 95% confidence interval 0.875-0.996; P = .036). These findings indicate that therapeutics designed to block IL6R signaling might be effective in treatment of IBD., (Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Evidence largely from animal studies suggests that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) may have cardiovascular health benefits. However, few prospective studies have examined the association between CLA and cardiovascular disease. We have prospectively examined the association between serum CLA and incident coronary heart disease and heart failure (HF) in older men., Methods and Results: Prospective study of 3806 men, aged 60 to 79 years, without prevalent HF followed up for an average of 13 years, during which there were 295 incident HF cases. A high-throughput serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics platform was used to measure CLA concentration in serum, expressed as a percentage of total fatty acids (CLA%). CLA% was adversely associated with cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol but was inversely associated with C-reactive protein and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; a marker of ventricular stress). No association was seen between CLA% and incident coronary heart disease. High CLA% was associated with significantly reduced risk of HF after adjustment for HF risk factors and C-reactive protein (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.64 [0.43-0.96]; quartile 4 versus quartile 1). Elevated CLA% was associated with reduced HF risk only in those with higher dairy fat intake, a major dietary source of CLA (test for interaction P =0.03). The reduced risk of HF was partially explained by NT-proBNP. High dairy fat intake was not associated with incident coronary heart disease but was associated with reduced risk of HF, largely because of the inverse effect of CLA., Conclusions: The finding that high CLA% is associated with lower risk of incident HF in older men requires confirmation in larger studies., (© 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.)

Background: Adiponectin, a circulating adipocyte-derived protein, has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory, antiatherogenic, and cardiomyocyte-protective properties in animal models. However, the systemic effects of adiponectin in humans are unknown. Our aims were to define the metabolic profile associated with higher blood adiponectin concentration and investigate whether variation in adiponectin concentration affects the systemic metabolic profile., Methods and Results: We applied multivariable regression in ≤5909 adults and Mendelian randomization (using cis -acting genetic variants in the vicinity of the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables) for analyzing the causal effect of adiponectin in the metabolic profile of ≤37 545 adults. Participants were largely European from 6 longitudinal studies and 1 genome-wide association consortium. In the multivariable regression analyses, higher circulating adiponectin was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein lipids and lower very-low-density lipoprotein lipids, glucose levels, branched-chain amino acids, and inflammatory markers. However, these findings were not supported by Mendelian randomization analyses for most metabolites. Findings were consistent between sexes and after excluding high-risk groups (defined by age and occurrence of previous cardiovascular event) and 1 study with admixed population., Conclusions: Our findings indicate that blood adiponectin concentration is more likely to be an epiphenomenon in the context of metabolic disease than a key determinant., (© 2017 The Authors.)

Objective  To compare the efficacy, safety, and cost effectiveness of direct acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for patients with atrial fibrillation. Design  Systematic review, network meta-analysis, and cost effectiveness analysis. Data sources  Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and The Cochrane Library. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  Published randomised trials evaluating the use of a DOAC, vitamin K antagonist, or antiplatelet drug for prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Results  23 randomised trials involving 94 656 patients were analysed: 13 compared a DOAC with warfarin dosed to achieve a target INR of 2.0-3.0. Apixaban 5 mg twice daily (odds ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.94), dabigatran 150 mg twice daily (0.65, 0.52 to 0.81), edoxaban 60 mg once daily (0.86, 0.74 to 1.01), and rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily (0.88, 0.74 to 1.03) reduced the risk of stroke or systemic embolism compared with warfarin. The risk of stroke or systemic embolism was higher with edoxaban 60 mg once daily (1.33, 1.02 to 1.75) and rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily (1.35, 1.03 to 1.78) than with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily. The risk of all-cause mortality was lower with all DOACs than with warfarin. Apixaban 5 mg twice daily (0.71, 0.61 to 0.81), dabigatran 110 mg twice daily (0.80, 0.69 to 0.93), edoxaban 30 mg once daily (0.46, 0.40 to 0.54), and edoxaban 60 mg once daily (0.78, 0.69 to 0.90) reduced the risk of major bleeding compared with warfarin. The risk of major bleeding was higher with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily than apixaban 5 mg twice daily (1.33, 1.09 to 1.62), rivaroxaban 20 mg twice daily than apixaban 5 mg twice daily (1.45, 1.19 to 1.78), and rivaroxaban 20 mg twice daily than edoxaban 60 mg once daily (1.31, 1.07 to 1.59). The risk of intracranial bleeding was substantially lower for most DOACs compared with warfarin, whereas the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding was higher with some DOACs than warfarin. Apixaban 5 mg twice daily was ranked the highest for most outcomes, and was cost effective compared with warfarin. Conclusions  The network meta-analysis informs the choice of DOACs for prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Several DOACs are of net benefit compared with warfarin. A trial directly comparing DOACs would overcome the need for indirect comparisons to be made through network meta-analysis. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD 42013005324., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JACS was a former member of the Health Technology Assessment Clinical Trial Board. CS is currently a Health Services and Delivery Research - Researcher Led Board member. NJW, JS, and SD report NIHR and Medical Research Council grants during the conduct of the study, outside the present work. Other authors have no potential conflicts of interest to declare., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Studies of recurrent or subsequent disease events may be susceptible to bias caused by selection of subjects who both experience and survive the primary indexing event. Currently, the magnitude of any selection bias, particularly for subsequent time-to-event analysis in genetic association studies, is unknown., Methods and Results: We used empirically inspired simulation studies to explore the impact of selection bias on the marginal hazard ratio for risk of subsequent events among those with established coronary heart disease. The extent of selection bias was determined by the magnitudes of genetic and nongenetic effects on the indexing (first) coronary heart disease event. Unless the genetic hazard ratio was unrealistically large (>1.6 per allele) and assuming the sum of all nongenetic hazard ratios was <10, bias was usually <10% (downward toward the null). Despite the low bias, the probability that a confidence interval included the true effect decreased (undercoverage) with increasing sample size because of increasing precision. Importantly, false-positive rates were not affected by selection bias., Conclusions: In most empirical settings, selection bias is expected to have a limited impact on genetic effect estimates of subsequent event risk. Nevertheless, because of undercoverage increasing with sample size, most confidence intervals will be over precise (not wide enough). When there is no effect modification by history of coronary heart disease, the false-positive rates of association tests will be close to nominal., (© 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is used to diagnose type 2 diabetes (T2D) and assess glycemic control in patients with diabetes. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 18 HbA1c-associated genetic variants. These variants proved to be classifiable by their likely biological action as erythrocytic (also associated with erythrocyte traits) or glycemic (associated with other glucose-related traits). In this study, we tested the hypotheses that, in a very large scale GWAS, we would identify more genetic variants associated with HbA1c and that HbA1c variants implicated in erythrocytic biology would affect the diagnostic accuracy of HbA1c. We therefore expanded the number of HbA1c-associated loci and tested the effect of genetic risk-scores comprised of erythrocytic or glycemic variants on incident diabetes prediction and on prevalent diabetes screening performance. Throughout this multiancestry study, we kept a focus on interancestry differences in HbA1c genetics performance that might influence race-ancestry differences in health outcomes., Methods & Findings: Using genome-wide association meta-analyses in up to 159,940 individuals from 82 cohorts of European, African, East Asian, and South Asian ancestry, we identified 60 common genetic variants associated with HbA1c. We classified variants as implicated in glycemic, erythrocytic, or unclassified biology and tested whether additive genetic scores of erythrocytic variants (GS-E) or glycemic variants (GS-G) were associated with higher T2D incidence in multiethnic longitudinal cohorts (N = 33,241). Nineteen glycemic and 22 erythrocytic variants were associated with HbA1c at genome-wide significance. GS-G was associated with higher T2D risk (incidence OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06, per HbA1c-raising allele, p = 3 × 10-29); whereas GS-E was not (OR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.60). In Europeans and Asians, erythrocytic variants in aggregate had only modest effects on the diagnostic accuracy of HbA1c. Yet, in African Americans, the X-linked G6PD G202A variant (T-allele frequency 11%) was associated with an absolute decrease in HbA1c of 0.81%-units (95% CI 0.66-0.96) per allele in hemizygous men, and 0.68%-units (95% CI 0.38-0.97) in homozygous women. The G6PD variant may cause approximately 2% (N = 0.65 million, 95% CI 0.55-0.74) of African American adults with T2D to remain undiagnosed when screened with HbA1c. Limitations include the smaller sample sizes for non-European ancestries and the inability to classify approximately one-third of the variants. Further studies in large multiethnic cohorts with HbA1c, glycemic, and erythrocytic traits are required to better determine the biological action of the unclassified variants., Conclusions: As G6PD deficiency can be clinically silent until illness strikes, we recommend investigation of the possible benefits of screening for the G6PD genotype along with using HbA1c to diagnose T2D in populations of African ancestry or groups where G6PD deficiency is common. Screening with direct glucose measurements, or genetically-informed HbA1c diagnostic thresholds in people with G6PD deficiency, may be required to avoid missed or delayed diagnoses.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in coronary artery disease (CAD) had identified 66 loci at 'genome-wide significance' (P < 5 × 10 -8 ) at the time of this analysis, but a much larger number of putative loci at a false discovery rate (FDR) of 5% (refs. 1,2,3,4). Here we leverage an interim release of UK Biobank (UKBB) data to evaluate the validity of the FDR approach. We tested a CAD phenotype inclusive of angina (SOFT; n cases = 10,801) as well as a stricter definition without angina (HARD; n cases = 6,482) and selected cases with the former phenotype to conduct a meta-analysis using the two most recent CAD GWAS. This approach identified 13 new loci at genome-wide significance, 12 of which were on our previous list of loci meeting the 5% FDR threshold, thus providing strong support that the remaining loci identified by FDR represent genuine signals. The 304 independent variants associated at 5% FDR in this study explain 21.2% of CAD heritability and identify 243 loci that implicate pathways in blood vessel morphogenesis as well as lipid metabolism, nitric oxide signaling and inflammation.

Background: The genetic etiology of human lipid quantitative traits is not fully elucidated, and interactions between variants may play a role. We performed a gene-centric interaction study for four different lipid traits: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides (TG)., Results: Our analysis consisted of a discovery phase using a merged dataset of five different cohorts ( n  = 12,853 to n  = 16,849 depending on lipid phenotype) and a replication phase with ten independent cohorts totaling up to 36,938 additional samples. Filters are often applied before interaction testing to correct for the burden of testing all pairwise interactions. We used two different filters: 1. A filter that tested only single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with a main effect of p  < 0.001 in a previous association study. 2. A filter that only tested interactions identified by Biofilter 2.0. Pairwise models that reached an interaction significance level of p  < 0.001 in the discovery dataset were tested for replication. We identified thirteen SNP-SNP models that were significant in more than one replication cohort after accounting for multiple testing., Conclusions: These results may reveal novel insights into the genetic etiology of lipid levels. Furthermore, we developed a pipeline to perform a computationally efficient interaction analysis with multi-cohort replication.

Background: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease., Methods: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits., Results: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m 2 ; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22-1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38-2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%-77% per 1 SD)., Conclusions: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity., (© 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background and Aims: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is an autosomal-dominant disease with frequency of 1/500 to 1/250 that leads to premature coronary heart disease. New approaches to identify FH mutation-carriers early are needed to prevent premature cardiac deaths. In a cross-sectional study of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we evaluated the biochemical thresholds for FH screening in childhood, and modelled a two-stage biochemical and sequencing screening strategy for FH detection., Methods: From 5083 ALSPAC children with cholesterol measurement at age nine years, FH genetic diagnosis was performed in 1512 individuals, using whole-genome or targeted sequencing of known FH-causing genes. Detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) for proposed screening thresholds (total-cholesterol > 1.53, or LDL-C > 1.84 multiples of the median (MoM)) were assessed., Results: Six of 1512 sequenced individuals had an FH-causing mutation of whom five had LDL-C > 1.84 MoM, giving a verification-bias corrected DR of 62.5% (95% CI: 25-92), with a FPR of 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1-0.4). The DR for the TC cut-point of 1.53 MoM was 25% (95% CI: 3.2-65.1) with a FPR of 0.4% (95% CI: 0.2-0.6). We estimated 13 of an expected 20 FH mutation carriers (and 13 of the 20 parental carriers) could be detected for every 10,000 children screened, with false-positives reliably excluded by addition of a next generation sequencing step in biochemical screen-positive samples., Conclusions: Proposed cholesterol thresholds for childhood FH screening were less accurate than previously estimated. A sequential strategy of biochemical screening followed by targeted sequencing of FH genes in screen-positive children may help mitigate the higher than previously estimated FPR and reduce wasted screening of unaffected parents., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Despite the availability of effective drug therapies that reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol (LDL-C), cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains an important cause of mortality and morbidity. Therefore, additional LDL-C reduction may be warranted, especially for patients who are unresponsive to, or unable to take, existing LDL-C-reducing therapies. By inhibiting the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) enzyme, monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9 inhibitors) may further reduce LDL-C, potentially reducing CVD risk as well., Objectives: Primary To quantify short-term (24 weeks), medium-term (one year), and long-term (five years) effects of PCSK9 inhibitors on lipid parameters and on the incidence of CVD. Secondary To quantify the safety of PCSK9 inhibitors, with specific focus on the incidence of type 2 diabetes, cognitive function, and cancer. Additionally, to determine if specific patient subgroups were more or less likely to benefit from the use of PCSK9 inhibitors., Search Methods: We identified studies by systematically searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. We also searched Clinicaltrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and screened the reference lists of included studies. We identified the studies included in this review through electronic literature searches conducted up to May 2016, and added three large trials published in March 2017., Selection Criteria: All parallel-group and factorial randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a follow-up time of at least 24 weeks were eligible., Data Collection and Analysis: Two review authors independently reviewed and extracted data. When data were available, we calculated pooled effect estimates., Main Results: We included 20 studies with data on 67,237 participants (median age 61 years; range 52 to 64 years). Twelve trials randomised participants to alirocumab, three trials to bococizumab, one to RG7652, and four to evolocumab. Owing to the small number of trials using agents other than alirocumab, we did not differentiate between types of PCSK9 inhibitors used. We compared PCSK9 inhibitors with placebo (thirteen RCTs), ezetimibe (two RCTs) or ezetimibe and statins (five RCTs).Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 53.86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 58.64 to 49.08; eight studies; 4782 participants; GRADE: moderate) at 24 weeks; compared with ezetimibe, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 30.20% (95% CI 34.18 to 26.23; two studies; 823 participants; GRADE: moderate), and compared with ezetimibe and statins, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 39.20% (95% CI 56.15 to 22.26; five studies; 5376 participants; GRADE: moderate).Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased the risk of CVD events, with a risk difference (RD) of 0.91% (odds ratio (OR) of 0.86, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.92; eight studies; 59,294 participants; GRADE: moderate). Compared with ezetimibe and statins, PCSK9 inhibitors appeared to have a stronger protective effect on CVD risk, although with considerable uncertainty (RD 1.06%, OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.75; three studies; 4770 participants; GRADE: very low). No data were available for the ezetimibe only comparison. Compared with placebo, PCSK9 probably had little or no effect on mortality (RD 0.03%, OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.14; 12 studies; 60,684 participants; GRADE: moderate). Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors increased the risk of any adverse events (RD 1.54%, OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12; 13 studies; 54,204 participants; GRADE: low). Similar effects were observed for the comparison of ezetimibe and statins: RD 3.70%, OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.34; four studies; 5376 participants; GRADE: low. Clinical event data were unavailable for the ezetimibe only comparison., Authors' Conclusions: Over short-term to medium-term follow-up, PCSK9 inhibitors reduced LDL-C. Studies with medium-term follow-up time (longest median follow-up recorded was 26 months) reported that PCSK9 inhibitors (compared with placebo) decreased CVD risk but may have increased the risk of any adverse events (driven by SPIRE-1 and -2 trials). Available evidence suggests that PCSK9 inhibitor use probably leads to little or no difference in mortality. Evidence on relative efficacy and safety when PCSK9 inhibitors were compared with active treatments was of low to very low quality (GRADE); follow-up times were short and events were few. Large trials with longer follow-up are needed to evaluate PCSK9 inhibitors versus active treatments as well as placebo. Owing to the predominant inclusion of high-risk patients in these studies, applicability of results to primary prevention is limited. Finally, estimated risk differences indicate that PCSK9 inhibitors only modestly change absolute risks (often to less than 1%).

Target identification (determining the correct drug targets for a disease) and target validation (demonstrating an effect of target perturbation on disease biomarkers and disease end points) are important steps in drug development. Clinically relevant associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets model the effect of modifying the same targets pharmacologically. To delineate drug development (including repurposing) opportunities arising from this paradigm, we connected complex disease- and biomarker-associated loci from genome-wide association studies to an updated set of genes encoding druggable human proteins, to agents with bioactivity against these targets, and, where there were licensed drugs, to clinical indications. We used this set of genes to inform the design of a new genotyping array, which will enable association studies of druggable genes for drug target selection and validation in human disease., (Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Background: Neutrophil counts are a ubiquitous measure of inflammation, but previous studies on their association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) were limited by small numbers of patients or a narrow range of endpoints., Objectives: This study investigated associations of clinically recorded neutrophil counts with initial presentation for a range of CVDs., Methods: We used linked primary care, hospitalization, disease registry, and mortality data in England. We included people 30 years or older with complete blood counts performed in usual clinical care and no history of CVD. We used Cox models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for 12 CVDs, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and acute conditions affecting neutrophil counts (such as infections and cancer)., Results: Among 775,231 individuals in the cohort, 154,179 had complete blood counts performed under acute conditions and 621,052 when they were stable. Over a median 3.8 years of follow-up, 55,004 individuals developed CVD. Adjusted HRs comparing neutrophil counts 6 to 7 versus 2 to 3 × 10 9 /l (both within the 'normal' range) showed strong associations with heart failure (HR: 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.82 to 2.29), peripheral arterial disease (HR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.72 to 2.21), unheralded coronary death (HR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.51 to 2.10), abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.34 to 2.21), and nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.76). These associations were linear, with greater risk even among individuals with neutrophil counts of 3 to 4 versus 2 to 3 × 10 9 /l. There was a weak association with ischemic stroke (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.57), but no association with stable angina or intracerebral hemorrhage., Conclusions: Neutrophil counts were strongly associated with the incidence of some CVDs, but not others, even within the normal range, consistent with underlying disease mechanisms differing across CVDs. (White Blood Cell Counts and Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: a CALIBER Study [CALIBER]; NCT02014610)., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Warfarin is effective for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but anticoagulation is underused in clinical care. The risk of venous thromboembolic disease during hospitalisation can be reduced by low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH): warfarin is the most frequently prescribed anticoagulant for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Warfarin-related bleeding is a major reason for hospitalisation for adverse drug effects. Warfarin is cheap but therapeutic monitoring increases treatment costs. Novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have more rapid onset and offset of action than warfarin, and more predictable dosing requirements., Objective: To determine the best oral anticoagulant/s for prevention of stroke in AF and for primary prevention, treatment and secondary prevention of VTE., Design: Four systematic reviews, network meta-analyses (NMAs) and cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of randomised controlled trials., Setting: Hospital (VTE primary prevention and acute treatment) and primary care/anticoagulation clinics (AF and VTE secondary prevention)., Participants: Patients eligible for anticoagulation with warfarin (stroke prevention in AF, acute treatment or secondary prevention of VTE) or LMWH (primary prevention of VTE)., Interventions: NOACs, warfarin and LMWH, together with other interventions (antiplatelet therapy, placebo) evaluated in the evidence network., Main Outcome Measures: Efficacy  Stroke, symptomatic VTE, symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis and symptomatic pulmonary embolism. Safety  Major bleeding, clinically relevant bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage. We also considered myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality and evaluated cost-effectiveness., Data Sources: MEDLINE and PREMEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library, reference lists of published NMAs and trial registries. We searched MEDLINE and PREMEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library. The stroke prevention in AF review search was run on the 12 March 2014 and updated on 15 September 2014, and covered the period 2010 to September 2014. The search for the three reviews in VTE was run on the 19 March 2014, updated on 15 September 2014, and covered the period 2008 to September 2014., Review Methods: Two reviewers screened search results, extracted and checked data, and assessed risk of bias. For each outcome we conducted standard meta-analysis and NMA. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using discrete-time Markov models., Results: Apixaban (Eliquis ® , Bristol-Myers Squibb, USA; Pfizer, USA) [5 mg bd (twice daily)] was ranked as among the best interventions for stroke prevention in AF, and had the highest expected net benefit. Edoxaban (Lixiana ® , Daiichi Sankyo, Japan) [60 mg od (once daily)] was ranked second for major bleeding and all-cause mortality. Neither the clinical effectiveness analysis nor the CEA provided strong evidence that NOACs should replace postoperative LMWH in primary prevention of VTE. For acute treatment and secondary prevention of VTE, we found little evidence that NOACs offer an efficacy advantage over warfarin, but the risk of bleeding complications was lower for some NOACs than for warfarin. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of > £5000, apixaban (5 mg bd) had the highest expected net benefit for acute treatment of VTE. Aspirin or no pharmacotherapy were likely to be the most cost-effective interventions for secondary prevention of VTE: our results suggest that it is not cost-effective to prescribe NOACs or warfarin for this indication., Conclusions: NOACs have advantages over warfarin in patients with AF, but we found no strong evidence that they should replace warfarin or LMWH in primary prevention, treatment or secondary prevention of VTE., Limitations: These relate mainly to shortfalls in the primary data: in particular, there were no head-to-head comparisons between different NOAC drugs., Future Work: Calculating the expected value of sample information to clarify whether or not it would be justifiable to fund one or more head-to-head trials., Study Registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005324, CRD42013005331 and CRD42013005330., Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Statin treatment and variants in the gene encoding HMG-CoA reductase are associated with reductions in both the concentration of LDL cholesterol and the risk of coronary heart disease, but also with modest hyperglycaemia, increased bodyweight, and modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes, which in no way offsets their substantial benefits. We sought to investigate the associations of LDL cholesterol-lowering PCSK9 variants with type 2 diabetes and related biomarkers to gauge the likely effects of PCSK9 inhibitors on diabetes risk., Methods: In this mendelian randomisation study, we used data from cohort studies, randomised controlled trials, case control studies, and genetic consortia to estimate associations of PCSK9 genetic variants with LDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, HbA 1c , fasting insulin, bodyweight, waist-to-hip ratio, BMI, and risk of type 2 diabetes, using a standardised analysis plan, meta-analyses, and weighted gene-centric scores., Findings: Data were available for more than 550 000 individuals and 51 623 cases of type 2 diabetes. Combined analyses of four independent PCSK9 variants (rs11583680, rs11591147, rs2479409, and rs11206510) scaled to 1 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol showed associations with increased fasting glucose (0·09 mmol/L, 95% CI 0·02 to 0·15), bodyweight (1·03 kg, 0·24 to 1·82), waist-to-hip ratio (0·006, 0·003 to 0·010), and an odds ratio for type diabetes of 1·29 (1·11 to 1·50). Based on the collected data, we did not identify associations with HbA 1c (0·03%, -0·01 to 0·08), fasting insulin (0·00%, -0·06 to 0·07), and BMI (0·11 kg/m 2 , -0·09 to 0·30)., Interpretation: PCSK9 variants associated with lower LDL cholesterol were also associated with circulating higher fasting glucose concentration, bodyweight, and waist-to-hip ratio, and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In trials of PCSK9 inhibitor drugs, investigators should carefully assess these safety outcomes and quantify the risks and benefits of PCSK9 inhibitor treatment, as was previously done for statins., Funding: British Heart Foundation, and University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UCLH) National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Motivation: Fine mapping is a widely used approach for identifying the causal variant(s) at disease-associated loci. Standard methods (e.g. multiple regression) require individual level genotypes. Recent fine mapping methods using summary-level data require the pairwise correlation coefficients ([Formula: see text]) of the variants. However, haplotypes rather than pairwise [Formula: see text], are the true biological representation of linkage disequilibrium (LD) among multiple loci. In this article, we present an empirical iterative method, HAPlotype Regional Association analysis Program (HAPRAP), that enables fine mapping using summary statistics and haplotype information from an individual-level reference panel., Results: Simulations with individual-level genotypes show that the results of HAPRAP and multiple regression are highly consistent. In simulation with summary-level data, we demonstrate that HAPRAP is less sensitive to poor LD estimates. In a parametric simulation using Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits height data, HAPRAP performs well with a small training sample size (N < 2000) while other methods become suboptimal. Moreover, HAPRAP's performance is not affected substantially by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with low minor allele frequencies. We applied the method to existing quantitative trait and binary outcome meta-analyses (human height, QTc interval and gallbladder disease); all previous reported association signals were replicated and two additional variants were independently associated with human height. Due to the growing availability of summary level data, the value of HAPRAP is likely to increase markedly for future analyses (e.g. functional prediction and identification of instruments for Mendelian randomization)., Availability and Implementation: The HAPRAP package and documentation are available at http://apps.biocompute.org.uk/haprap/ CONTACT: : jie.zheng@bristol.ac.uk or tom.gaunt@bristol.ac.ukSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Higher circulating levels of the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs; i.e., isoleucine, leucine, and valine) are strongly associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk, but it is not known whether this association is causal. We undertook large-scale human genetic analyses to address this question., Methods and Findings: Genome-wide studies of BCAA levels in 16,596 individuals revealed five genomic regions associated at genome-wide levels of significance (p < 5 × 10-8). The strongest signal was 21 kb upstream of the PPM1K gene (beta in standard deviations [SDs] of leucine per allele = 0.08, p = 3.9 × 10-25), encoding an activator of the mitochondrial branched-chain alpha-ketoacid dehydrogenase (BCKD) responsible for the rate-limiting step in BCAA catabolism. In another analysis, in up to 47,877 cases of type 2 diabetes and 267,694 controls, a genetically predicted difference of 1 SD in amino acid level was associated with an odds ratio for type 2 diabetes of 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.65, p = 9.5 × 10-8) for isoleucine, 1.85 (95% CI 1.41-2.42, p = 7.3 × 10-6) for leucine, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.28-1.84, p = 4.2 × 10-6) for valine. Estimates were highly consistent with those from prospective observational studies of the association between BCAA levels and incident type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of 1,992 cases and 4,319 non-cases. Metabolome-wide association analyses of BCAA-raising alleles revealed high specificity to the BCAA pathway and an accumulation of metabolites upstream of branched-chain alpha-ketoacid oxidation, consistent with reduced BCKD activity. Limitations of this study are that, while the association of genetic variants appeared highly specific, the possibility of pleiotropic associations cannot be entirely excluded. Similar to other complex phenotypes, genetic scores used in the study captured a limited proportion of the heritability in BCAA levels. Therefore, it is possible that only some of the mechanisms that increase BCAA levels or affect BCAA metabolism are implicated in type 2 diabetes., Conclusions: Evidence from this large-scale human genetic and metabolomic study is consistent with a causal role of BCAA metabolism in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes., Competing Interests: CL receives a stipend as a specialty consulting editor for PLOS Medicine and serves on the journal's editorial board. MIM is a member of the Editorial Board of PLOS Medicine. MIM is a member of advisory boards for NovoNordisk and Pfizer. MIM received honoraria for speaking engagements: NovoNordisk, Pfizer, Eli Lilly. MIM receives research funding from: NovoNordisk, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Takeda, Servier, Sanofi-Aventis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, Merck, Roche, Astra-Zeneca. EDK is an employee of Metabolon Inc., a fee-for-service metabolomics provider and received salary and stock options as compensation. IB and her spouse own stock in GlaxoSmithKline and Incyte Corporation. SB acts as an occasional paid statistical referee for PLOS Medicine, however had no reviewer role in this paper. The other authors report no conflict of interest relative to this study.

Background: The association of APOE genotype with circulating apolipoprotein E (ApoE) concentration and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is well established. However, the relationship of circulating ApoE concentration and CVD has received little attention., Methods and Findings: To address this, we measured circulating ApoE concentration in 9,587 individuals (with 1,413 CVD events) from three studies with incident CVD events: two population-based studies, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the men-only Northwick Park Heart Study II (NPHSII), and a nested sub-study of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT). We examined the association of circulating ApoE with cardiovascular risk factors in the two population-based studies (ELSA and NPHSII) and the relationship between ApoE concentration and coronary heart disease and stroke in all three studies. Analyses were carried out within study, and, where appropriate, pooled effect estimates were derived using meta-analysis. In the population-based samples, circulating ApoE was associated with systolic blood pressure (correlation coefficient 0.08, p < 0.001, in both ELSA and NPHSII), total cholesterol (correlation coefficient 0.46 and 0.34 in ELSA and NPHSII, respectively; both p < 0.001), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (correlation coefficient 0.30 and 0.14, respectively; both p < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein (correlation coefficient 0.16 and -0.14, respectively; both p < 0.001), and triglycerides (correlation coefficient 0.43 and 0.46, respectivly; both p < 0.001). In NPHSII, ApoE concentration was additionally associated with apolipoprotein B (correlation coefficient 0.13, p = 0.001) and lipoprotein(a) (correlation coefficient -0.11, p < 0.001). In the pooled analysis of ASCOT, ELSA, and NPHSII, there was no association of ApoE with CVD events; the odds ratio (OR) for CVD events per 1-standard-deviation higher ApoE concentration was 1.02 (95% CI 0.96, 1.09). After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the OR for CVD per 1-standard-deviation higher ApoE concentration was 0.97 (95% CI 0.82, 1.15). Limitations of these analyses include a polyclonal method of ApoE measurement, rather than isoform-specific measurement, a moderate sample size (although larger than any other study to our knowledge and with a long lag between ApoE measures), and CVD events that may attenuate an effect., Conclusions: In the largest study to date on this question, we found no evidence of an association of circulating ApoE concentration with CVD events. The established association of APOE genotype with CVD events may be explained by isoform-specific functions as well as other mechanisms, rather than circulating concentrations of ApoE., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: We investigated discrimination and calibration of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores when genotypic was added to phenotypic information. The potential of genetic information for those at intermediate risk by a phenotype-based risk score was assessed., Methods: Data were from seven prospective studies including 11 851 individuals initially free of CVD or diabetes, with 1444 incident CVD events over 10 years' follow-up. We calculated a score from 53 CVD-related single nucleotide polymorphisms and an established CVD risk equation 'QRISK-2' comprising phenotypic measures. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), detection rate for given false-positive rate (FPR) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index were estimated for gene scores alone and in addition to the QRISK-2 CVD risk score. We also evaluated use of genetic information only for those at intermediate risk according to QRISK-2., Results: The AUROC was 0.635 for QRISK-2 alone and 0.623 with addition of the gene score. The detection rate for 5% FPR improved from 11.9% to 12.0% when the gene score was added. For a 10-year CVD risk cut-off point of 10%, the NRI was 0.25% when the gene score was added to QRISK-2. Applying the genetic risk score only to those with QRISK-2 risk of 10%-<20% and prescribing statins where risk exceeded 20% suggested that genetic information could prevent one additional event for every 462 people screened., Conclusion: The gene score produced minimal incremental population-wide utility over phenotypic risk prediction of CVD. Tailored prediction using genetic information for those at intermediate risk may have clinical utility., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Mendelian randomization (MR) studies typically assess the pathogenic relevance of environmental exposures or disease biomarkers, using genetic variants that instrument these exposures. The approach is gaining popularity-our systematic review reveals a greater than 10-fold increase in MR studies published between 2004 and 2015. When the MR paradigm was first proposed, few biomarker- or exposure-related genetic variants were known, most having been identified by candidate gene studies. However, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are now providing a rich source of potential instruments for MR analysis. Many early reviews covering the concept, applications and analytical aspects of the MR technique preceded the surge in GWAS, and thus the question of how best to select instruments for MR studies from the now extensive pool of available variants has received insufficient attention. Here we focus on the most common category of MR studies-those concerning disease biomarkers. We consider how the selection of instruments for MR analysis from GWAS requires consideration of: the assumptions underlying the MR approach; the biology of the biomarker; the genome-wide distribution, frequency and effect size of biomarker-associated variants (the genetic architecture); and the specificity of the genetic associations. Based on this, we develop guidance that may help investigators to plan and readers interpret MR studies., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

To dissect the genetic architecture of blood pressure and assess effects on target organ damage, we analyzed 128,272 SNPs from targeted and genome-wide arrays in 201,529 individuals of European ancestry, and genotypes from an additional 140,886 individuals were used for validation. We identified 66 blood pressure-associated loci, of which 17 were new; 15 harbored multiple distinct association signals. The 66 index SNPs were enriched for cis-regulatory elements, particularly in vascular endothelial cells, consistent with a primary role in blood pressure control through modulation of vascular tone across multiple tissues. The 66 index SNPs combined in a risk score showed comparable effects in 64,421 individuals of non-European descent. The 66-SNP blood pressure risk score was significantly associated with target organ damage in multiple tissues but with minor effects in the kidney. Our findings expand current knowledge of blood pressure-related pathways and highlight tissues beyond the classical renal system in blood pressure regulation.

Background: Eosinophil and lymphocyte counts are commonly performed in clinical practice. Previous studies provide conflicting evidence of association with cardiovascular diseases., Methods: We used linked primary care, hospitalisation, disease registry and mortality data in England (the CALIBER (CArdiovascular disease research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme). We included people aged 30 or older without cardiovascular disease at baseline, and used Cox models to estimate cause-specific HRs for the association of eosinophil or lymphocyte counts with the first occurrence of cardiovascular disease., Results: The cohort comprised 775 231 individuals, of whom 55 004 presented with cardiovascular disease over median follow-up 3.8 years. Over the first 6 months, there was a strong association of low eosinophil counts (<0.05 compared with 0.15-0.25×10(9)/L) with heart failure (adjusted HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.72 to 2.43), unheralded coronary death (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.69), ventricular arrhythmia/sudden cardiac death and subarachnoid haemorrhage, but not angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, subarachnoid haemorrhage or abdominal aortic aneurysm. Low eosinophil count was inversely associated with peripheral arterial disease (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.89). There were similar associations with low lymphocyte counts (<1.45 vs 1.85-2.15×10(9)/L); adjusted HR over the first 6 months for heart failure was 2.25 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.67). Associations beyond the first 6 months were weaker., Conclusions: Low eosinophil counts and low lymphocyte counts in the general population are associated with increased short-term incidence of heart failure and coronary death., Trial Registration Number: NCT02014610; results.

Importance: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is causally related to coronary artery disease (CAD), but the relevance of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TGs) is uncertain. Lowering of LDL-C levels by statin therapy modestly increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, but it is unknown whether this effect is specific to statins., Objective: To investigate the associations of 3 routinely measured lipid fractions with CAD and diabetes through mendelian randomization (MR) using conventional MR and making use of newer approaches, such as multivariate MR and MR-Egger, that address the pleiotropy of genetic instruments where relevant., Design, Setting, and Participants: Published data from genome-wide association studies were used to construct genetic instruments and then applied to investigate associations between lipid fractions and the risk of CAD and diabetes using MR approaches that took into account pleiotropy of genetic instruments. The study was conducted from March 12 to December 31, 2015., Main Outcomes and Measures: Coronary artery disease and diabetes., Results: Genetic instruments composed of 130 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used for LDL-C (explaining 7.9% of its variance), 140 SNPs for HDL-C (6.6% of variance), and 140 SNPs for TGs (5.9% of variance). A 1-SD genetically instrumented elevation in LDL-C levels (equivalent to 38 mg/dL) and TG levels (equivalent to 89 mg/dL) was associated with higher CAD risk; odds ratios (ORs) were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.51-1.87) for LDL-C and 1.28 (95% CI, 1.13-1.45) for TGs. The corresponding OR for HDL-C (equivalent to a 16-mg/dL increase) was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.06). All 3 lipid traits were associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. The ORs were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.71-0.88) for LDL-C and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90) for HDL-C per 1-SD elevation. For TG, the MR estimates for diabetes were inconsistent, with MR-Egger giving an OR of 0.83 (95%CI, 0.72-0.95) per 1-SD elevation., Conclusions and Relevance: Routinely measured lipid fractions exhibit contrasting associations with the risk of CAD and diabetes. Increased LDL-C, HDL-C, and possibly TG levels are associated with a lower risk of diabetes. This information will be relevant to the design of clinical trials of lipid-modifying agents, which should carefully monitor participants for dysglycemia and the incidence of diabetes.

Background: Epidemiological studies show that high circulating cystatin C is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of creatinine-based renal function measurements. It is unclear whether this relationship is causal, arises from residual confounding, and/or is a consequence of reverse causation., Objectives: The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization to investigate whether cystatin C is causally related to CVD in the general population., Methods: We incorporated participant data from 16 prospective cohorts (n = 76,481) with 37,126 measures of cystatin C and added genetic data from 43 studies (n = 252,216) with 63,292 CVD events. We used the common variant rs911119 in CST3 as an instrumental variable to investigate the causal role of cystatin C in CVD, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and heart failure., Results: Cystatin C concentrations were associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and traditional risk factors (relative risk: 1.82 per doubling of cystatin C; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 2.13; p = 2.12 × 10(-14)). The minor allele of rs911119 was associated with decreased serum cystatin C (6.13% per allele; 95% CI: 5.75 to 6.50; p = 5.95 × 10(-211)), explaining 2.8% of the observed variation in cystatin C. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence for a causal role of cystatin C, with a causal relative risk for CVD of 1.00 per doubling cystatin C (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22; p = 0.994), which was statistically different from the observational estimate (p = 1.6 × 10(-5)). A causal effect of cystatin C was not detected for any individual component of CVD., Conclusions: Mendelian randomization analyses did not support a causal role of cystatin C in the etiology of CVD. As such, therapeutics targeted at lowering circulating cystatin C are unlikely to be effective in preventing CVD., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Red blood cell (RBC) traits are routinely measured in clinical practice as important markers of health. Deviations from the physiological ranges are usually a sign of disease, although variation between healthy individuals also occurs, at least partly due to genetic factors. Recent large scale genetic studies identified loci associated with one or more of these traits; further characterization of known loci and identification of new loci is necessary to better understand their role in health and disease and to identify potential molecular mechanisms. We performed meta-analysis of Metabochip association results for six RBC traits-hemoglobin concentration (Hb), hematocrit (Hct), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and red blood cell count (RCC)-in 11 093 Europeans from seven studies of the UCL-LSHTM-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium. We identified 394 non-overlapping SNPs in five loci at genome-wide significance: 6p22.1-6p21.33 (with HFE among others), 6q23.2 (with HBS1L among others), 6q23.3 (contains no genes), 9q34.3 (only ABO gene) and 22q13.1 (with TMPRSS6 among others), replicating previous findings of association with RBC traits at these loci and extending them by imputation to 1000 Genomes. We further characterized associations between ABO SNPs and three traits: hemoglobin, hematocrit and red blood cell count, replicating them in an independent cohort. Conditional analyses indicated the independent association of each of these traits with ABO SNPs and a role for blood group O in mediating the association. The 15 most significant RBC-associated ABO SNPs were also associated with five cardiometabolic traits, with discordance in the direction of effect between groups of traits, suggesting that ABO may act through more than one mechanism to influence cardiometabolic risk.

Background: Increased circulating plasma urate concentration is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, but the extent of any causative effect of urate on risk of coronary heart disease is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to clarify any causal role of urate on coronary heart disease risk using Mendelian randomisation analysis., Methods: We first did a fixed-effects meta-analysis of the observational association of plasma urate and risk of coronary heart disease. We then used a conventional Mendelian randomisation approach to investigate the causal relevance using a genetic instrument based on 31 urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). To account for potential pleiotropic associations of certain SNPs with risk factors other than urate, we additionally did both a multivariable Mendelian randomisation analysis, in which the genetic associations of SNPs with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides were included as covariates, and an Egger Mendelian randomisation (MR-Egger) analysis to estimate a causal effect accounting for unmeasured pleiotropy., Findings: In the meta-analysis of 17 prospective observational studies (166 486 individuals; 9784 coronary heart disease events) a 1 SD higher urate concentration was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for coronary heart disease of 1·07 (95% CI 1·04-1·10). The corresponding OR estimates from the conventional, multivariable adjusted, and Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis (58 studies; 198 598 individuals; 65 877 events) were 1·18 (95% CI 1·08-1·29), 1·10 (1·00-1·22), and 1·05 (0·92-1·20), respectively, per 1 SD increment in plasma urate., Interpretation: Conventional and multivariate Mendelian randomisation analysis implicates a causal role for urate in the development of coronary heart disease, but these estimates might be inflated by hidden pleiotropy. Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis, which accounts for pleiotropy but has less statistical power, suggests there might be no causal effect. These results might help investigators to determine the priority of trials of urate lowering for the prevention of coronary heart disease compared with other potential interventions., Funding: UK National Institute for Health Research, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2016 White et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To find new genetic loci associated with statin response, and to investigate the association of a genetic risk score (GRS) with this outcome., Patients & Methods: In a discovery meta-analysis (five studies, 1991 individuals), we investigated the effects of approximately 50000 single nucleotide polymorphisms on statin response, following up associations with p < 1 × 10(-4) (three independent studies, 5314 individuals). We further assessed the effect of a GRS based on SNPs in ABCG2, LPA and APOE., Results: No new SNPs were found associated with statin response. The GRS was associated with reduced statin response: 0.0394 mmol/l per allele (95% CI: 0.0171-0.0617, p = 5.37 × 10(-4))., Conclusion: The GRS was associated with statin response, but the small effect size (˜2% of the average low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction) limits applicability.

Background: Statins are first-line therapy for cardiovascular disease prevention, but their systemic effects across lipoprotein subclasses, fatty acids, and circulating metabolites remain incompletely characterized., Objectives: This study sought to determine the molecular effects of statin therapy on multiple metabolic pathways., Methods: Metabolic profiles based on serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics were quantified at 2 time points in 4 population-based cohorts from the United Kingdom and Finland (N = 5,590; 2.5 to 23.0 years of follow-up). Concentration changes in 80 lipid and metabolite measures during follow-up were compared between 716 individuals who started statin therapy and 4,874 persistent nonusers. To further understand the pharmacological effects of statins, we used Mendelian randomization to assess associations of a genetic variant known to mimic inhibition of HMG-CoA reductase (the intended drug target) with the same lipids and metabolites for 27,914 individuals from 8 population-based cohorts., Results: Starting statin therapy was associated with numerous lipoprotein and fatty acid changes, including substantial lowering of remnant cholesterol (80% relative to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C]), but only modest lowering of triglycerides (25% relative to LDL-C). Among fatty acids, omega-6 levels decreased the most (68% relative to LDL-C); other fatty acids were only modestly affected. No robust changes were observed for circulating amino acids, ketones, or glycolysis-related metabolites. The intricate metabolic changes associated with statin use closely matched the association pattern with rs12916 in the HMGCR gene (R(2) = 0.94, slope 1.00 ± 0.03)., Conclusions: Statin use leads to extensive lipid changes beyond LDL-C and appears efficacious for lowering remnant cholesterol. Metabolomic profiling, however, suggested minimal effects on amino acids. The results exemplify how detailed metabolic characterization of genetic proxies for drug targets can inform indications, pleiotropic effects, and pharmacological mechanisms., (Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Cardiovascular disease encompasses several diverse pathological states that place a heavy burden on individual and population health. The aetiological basis of many cardiovascular disorders is not fully understood. Growing knowledge of the genetic architecture underlying coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiac arrhythmias and peripheral vascular disease has confirmed some suspected causal pathways in these conditions but also uncovered many previously unknown mechanisms. Here, we consider the contribution of genetics to the understanding of cardiovascular disease risk. We evaluate the utility and relevance of findings from genome-wide association studies and explore the role that Mendelian randomisation has to play in exploiting these. Mendelian randomisation permits robust causal inference in an area of research where this has been hampered by bias and confounding in observational studies. In doing so, it provides evidence for causal processes in cardiovascular disease that could represent novel targets for much-needed new drugs for disease prevention and treatment.