151. Development and validation of explainable machine learning models for risk of mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: TAVI risk machine scores.
- Author
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Leha A, Huber C, Friede T, Bauer T, Beckmann A, Bekeredjian R, Bleiziffer S, Herrmann E, Möllmann H, Walther T, Beyersdorf F, Hamm C, Künzi A, Windecker S, Stortecky S, Kutschka I, Hasenfuß G, Ensminger S, Frerker C, and Seidler T
- Abstract
Aims: Identification of high-risk patients and individualized decision support based on objective criteria for rapid discharge after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) are key requirements in the context of contemporary TAVI treatment. This study aimed to predict 30-day mortality following TAVI based on machine learning (ML) using data from the German Aortic Valve Registry., Methods and Results: Mortality risk was determined using a random forest ML model that was condensed in the newly developed TAVI Risk Machine (TRIM) scores, designed to represent clinically meaningful risk modelling before (TRIMpre) and in particular after (TRIMpost) TAVI. Algorithm was trained and cross-validated on data of 22 283 patients (729 died within 30 days post-TAVI) and generalisation was examined on data of 5864 patients (146 died). TRIMpost demonstrated significantly better performance than traditional scores [ C -statistics value, 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI)] [0.74; 0.83] compared to Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) with C -statistics value 0.69; 95%-CI [0.65; 0.74]). An abridged (aTRIMpost) score comprising 25 features (calculated using a web interface) exhibited significantly higher performance than traditional scores ( C -statistics value, 0.74; 95%-CI [0.70; 0.78]). Validation on external data of 6693 patients (205 died within 30 days post-TAVI) of the Swiss TAVI Registry confirmed significantly better performance for the TRIMpost ( C -statistics value 0.75, 95%-CI [0.72; 0.79]) compared to STS ( C -statistics value 0.67, CI [0.63; 0.70])., Conclusion: TRIM scores demonstrate good performance for risk estimation before and after TAVI. Together with clinical judgement, they may support standardised and objective decision-making before and after TAVI., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: T Friede reports personal fees for statistical consultancies (includingdata monitoring committees) from Novartis, Bayer, Janssen, Roche, Galapagos, Penumbra, Parexel, Vifor, BiosenseWebster, CSLBehring, Fresenius Kabi, Coherex Medical, LivaNova, Minoryx, IQVIA, Enanta, Relaxera, Immunic; all outside the submitted work. CHamm reports membership in the International Strategic Advisory Board of Medtronic Inc. H Möllmann reports Speaker honoraria, advisory board and proctor fees Abbott, Boston Scientific, Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic. S Stortecky reports research grants to theinstitution from Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic, Abbott and Boston Scientific, and personal fees from Boston Scientific, Teleflex, and BTG. S Windecker reports research, travel or educational grants to the institution without personal remuneration from Abbott, Abiomed, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Braun, Biotronik, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health,CardioValve, Cordis Medical, Corflow Therapeutics, CSL Behring, Daiichi Sankyo, Edwards Lifesciences, Farapulse Inc. Fumedica, Guerbet, Idorsia, Inari Medical, InfraRedx, Janssen-Cilag, Johnson & Johnson, Medalliance, Medicure, Medtronic, Merck Sharp &Dohm, Miracor Medical, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Organon, OrPha Suisse, Pharming Tech. Pfizer, Polares, Regeneron, Sanofi-Aventis, Servier, Sinomed, Terumo, Vifor, V-Wave. He served as advisory board member and/or member of the steering/executive group oftrials funded by Abbott, Abiomed, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Boston Scientific, Biotronik, Bristol Myers Squibb, Edwards Lifesciences,MedAlliance, Medtronic, Novartis, Polares, Recardio, Sinomed, Terumo, and V-Wave with payments to the institution but no personalpayments. He is also member of the steering/executive committee group of several investigator-initiated trials. G Hasenfuß reportshonorarium for consultating and/or for lectures from AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer, Impulse Dynamics, Novartis, Pfizer, Servier, Viforand Consultation without honoraria from Corvia. T Seidler reports research or educational grants to the institution by Edwards LifeSciences and honoraria for lectures or advisory board consultations or travel grants from Abbott Vascular, AstraZeneca, BoehringerIngelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Corvia, Cytokinetics, Edwards Life Sciences, Medtronic, Myocardia, Novartis, Pfizer, Teleflex. S. Bleiziffer reports Speaker fees from Boston Scentific, Abbott, Edwards Lifesciences and Medtronic. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest exist., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)
- Published
- 2023
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