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This paper describes the Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of Canada (CIOPS-E) running operationally at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). CIOPS-E uses a one-way downscaling technique on a 1/36° horizontal grid (~2 km) to simulate high-resolution ice and ocean conditions over the northwest Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL). CIOPS-E is forced at its lateral boundaries with ECCC's Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) and tidal conditions from the Oregon State University TPXO model. The three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields are spectrally nudged towards the RIOPS solution offshore of the 1500 m isobath to, effectively constrain mesoscale features in the Gulf Stream area. Over the continental shelf and the GSL, the CIOPS-E solution is free to develop fully according to model dynamics. CIOPS-E is evaluated over one year from March 2019 to February 2020. Overall, the CIOPS-E improves the representation of tides compared to ECCC's lower resolution systems: RIOPS (1/12°) and the Regional Marine Prediction System - Gulf of St. Lawrence (RMPS-GSL, 5 km). The accuracy of the tides are comparable to the TPXO at most coastal tide gauges. Sub-tidal water levels from CIOPS-E agree well with the observed seasonal variability and show improved errors statistics at all stations compared to RIOPS and RMPS-GSL. Improvements are especially noted for the GSL. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from CIOPS-E are lower (higher) in spring (fall) over most of the GSL compared to satellite-derived analyses and RIOPS. Comparison with in-situ observations of SST show significant improvement in CIOPS-E with respect to the RMPS-GSL. Lastly, sea ice conditions in the GSL are compared with the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) charts and the RMPS-GSL model. The sea ice cover and thickness from the pseudo-analysis component (without data assimilation) shows an overestimation compared to the CIS estimates, which is subsequently corrected in the forecast phase through the direct insertion of a Radarsat image analysis product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) has been observed and predicted due to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. If sulphate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, are reduced by air pollution control, the NAWH may form as it would if CO2 concentrations increased. In this study, sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere–ocean-aerosol model were conducted by varying the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, a precursor of sulphate which is the primary anthropogenic aerosol in the atmosphere, to analyse the changes in the ocean temperature, salinity, and density. The results showed that although the spatial patterns of the NAWH due to the changes in SO2 emissions was similar to that due to the changes in the CO2 concentrations, the magnitude of the shifts in the ocean parameters due to the changes in SO2 emissions is larger even when changes in global mean temperature are comparable. This can be due to the spatial concentration of sulphate aerosols in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting larger changes in the heat transport from the south on the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current along with changes in freshwater inflow from the Arctic through the Labrador Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a frequently studied phenomenon along the West Coast of the United States, where they are typically associated with the heaviest local flooding events and almost one-half of the annual precipitation totals. By contrast, ARs in the northeastern United States have received considerably less attention. The purpose of this study is to utilize a unique visual inspection methodology to create a 30-yr (1988–2017) climatology of ARs in the northeastern United States. Consistent with its formal definition, ARs are defined as corridors with integrated vapor transport (IVT) values greater than 250 kg m−1 s−1 over an area at least 2000 km long but less than 1000 km wide in association with an extratropical cyclone. Using MERRA2 reanalysis data, this AR definition is used to determine the frequency, duration, and spatial distribution of ARs across the northeastern United States. Approximately 100 ARs occur in the northeastern United States per year, with these ARs being quasi-uniformly distributed throughout the year. On average, northeastern U.S. ARs have a peak IVT magnitude between 750 and 999 kg m−1 s−1, last less than 48 h, and arrive in the region from the west to southwest. Average AR durations are longer in summer and shorter in winter. Further, ARs are typically associated with lower IVT in winter and higher IVT in summer. Spatially, ARs more frequently occur over the Atlantic Ocean coastline and adjacent Gulf Stream waters; however, the frequency with which large IVT values are associated with ARs is highest over interior New England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf Stream, although not directly responsible for the mild, temperate climate of the British Isles, transports vast quantities of water across the North Atlantic Ocean. An extension of the Caribbean-Loop-Florida current system, this strong current cools and becomesmore saline by evaporation as it flowsNEacross the NorthAtlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, it is able to transport benthic foraminifera across oceanic distances, the fauna around Bermuda containing many species described from the Caribbean Sea. Examining two cores taken from the shallow middle neritic Holocene Surface Sands Formation of the temperate Liverpool Bay, England, we found rare specimens of eight species recorded also from the neritic of the tropical Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic South Shelf Provinces: Asterigerina carinata, Dyocibicides biserialis, Elphidium discoidale, Nonionoides grateloupii, Quinqueloculina lamarckiana, Reussella atlantica and Sahulia conica. We are confident in our identifications of A. carinata and E. discoidale, but suggest that these names may have been applied to several cryptospecies. Some of these may have been transported on floating phytal debris, A. carinata, which supports algal symbionts, having been recorded at abyssal depths in the eastern North Atlantic. Othersmay have been transported as small propagules (proloculi). Although theremay be a constant rain of such specimens into Liverpool Bay, we conclude on the basis of their rarity that the exotic species are unlikely to be able to overwinter there. We suggest, however, that these may have potential as invasive species for Liverpool Bay as climates continue to warm. This is not the earliest instance of transport of exotic species across the NorthAtlantic. The Late Eocene species Asterocyclina soldadoensis has been recorded from both the southern Caribbean region and offshore Ireland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow field data generated by ocean models are important for simulating ocean currents and circulation patterns, which are essential components in digital Earth construction. To evaluate the accuracy of model-simulated flow fields, Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) float observations can be considered benchmarks. In this study, a novel method for comparing Argo profiles with 3-dimensional trajectories obtained by simulating Argo floats in Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)-provided flow fields was proposed. Surface and subsurface trajectories were calculated, and their spatial matching characteristics were analyzed. The results demonstrated that (1) the HYCOM surface and subsurface flow fields generally conform to the basic characteristics and trends of ocean currents; (2) the HYCOM sea surface current field error pattern exhibits a symmetrical distribution centered on the equator in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and increases with increasing latitude; and (3) the HYCOM subsurface flow field exhibits regional differences, with the largest differences in the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Warm Current, and Westerly Wind Drift region. Through analysis of the disparities between HYCOM and Argo data, the effectiveness of using model simulation data can be enhanced, and the accuracy and dependability of ocean models can be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of sea-level change to its different drivers is typically done using a sea-level budget approach. While the global mean sea-level budget is considered closed, closing the budget on a finer spatial scale is more complicated due to, for instance, limitations in our observational system and the spatial processes contributing to regional sea-level change. Consequently, the regional budget has been mainly analysed on a basin-wide scale. Here we investigate the sea-level budget at sub-basin scales, using two machine learning techniques to extract domains of coherent sea-level variability: a neural network approach (self-organizing map, SOM) and a network detection approach (δ -MAPS). The extracted domains provide more spatial detail within the ocean basins and indicate how sea-level variability is connected among different regions. Using these domains we can close, within 1 σ uncertainty, the sub-basin regional sea-level budget from 1993–2016 in 100 % and 76 % of the SOM and δ -MAPS regions, respectively. Steric variations dominate the temporal sea-level variability and determine a significant part of the total regional change. Sea-level change due to mass exchange between ocean and land has a relatively homogeneous contribution to all regions. In highly dynamic regions (e.g. the Gulf Stream region) the dynamic mass redistribution is significant. Regions where the budget cannot be closed highlight processes that are affecting sea level but are not well captured by the observations, such as the influence of western boundary currents. The use of the budget approach in combination with machine learning techniques leads to new insights into regional sea-level variability and its drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradient associated with the Gulf Stream (GS) is widely acknowledged to play an important role in shaping mid‐latitude weather and climate. Despite this, an index for the GS SST gradient has not yet been standardized in the literature. This paper introduces a monthly index for the large‐scale SST gradient across the separated GS based on the time‐varying GS position detected from sea‐surface height. Analysis suggests that the variations in the monthly average SST gradient throughout the year result primarily from SST variability to the north of the GS, with little contribution from SST to the south. The index exhibits a weak periodicity at ∼2 years. Sea level pressure and turbulent heat flux patterns suggest that variability in the large‐scale SST gradient is related to atmospheric (rather than oceanic) forcing. Ocean‐to‐atmosphere feedback does not persist throughout the year, but there is some evidence of wintertime feedback. Plain Language Summary: The Gulf Stream is a narrow and fast‐flowing oceanic boundary current that transports warm tropical water north along the coast of Florida and out into the North Atlantic past Cape Hatteras. It is a region where sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) change dramatically over very short distances with much cooler temperatures on one side of the Gulf Stream (GS) (to the north) and warmer temperatures on the other side (to the south). This strong change in SST across the GS is important for weather systems that propagate in the Euro‐Atlantic sector. Here, an index that measures how much the SSTs change with distance from month‐to‐month across the GS once it separates past Cape Hatteras is developed for the first time. It is found that variability in the index primarily results from SST variations to the north of the separated GS, which themselves are influenced by the atmosphere. There is evidence however that the SST variability represented by the index can also exert an influence on the atmosphere in wintertime. Additionally, the value of the index at any given time seemingly provides some information about the state of the index several years into the future. Key Points: A monthly index for the large‐scale sea‐surface temperature gradient of the separated Gulf Stream is presentedVariations in the index throughout the year are related to atmospheric forcingEvidence of ocean‐atmosphere feedback in the index is only apparent in wintertime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of Earth's main modes of climate variability, having huge impacts on weather, agriculture, and people worldwide. Although these impacts and teleconnections have been studied for decades, the role of atmospheric transport is not completely understood. We analyze the atmospheric transport outgoing from the Equatorial Pacific with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART driven by reanalysis data. Our results demonstrate the interocean‐basin exchange via the atmosphere: anomalously energetic air from the ENSO region mainly remains within the Tropics and Subtropics, while more air is transported toward the east during El Niño. Transport of anomalous moist air can directly be linked to several observed teleconnections, for example, droughts in the Amazon Basin and precipitation in Southeastern U.S. during El Niño. These results show that atmospheric transport plays a role in several ENSO teleconnections. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate variability that is associated with changes in the climate state every 2–7 years. It occurs due to changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Equatorial Pacific (EP) and causes shifts in the atmospheric circulation. Influences on weather, agriculture and thus the lives of many people worldwide makes understanding the role of the atmosphere important. In order to uncover the role of the atmosphere, we model the atmospheric transport with specialized computer code. We find that the air from the EP Ocean, where the largest anomalies in SSTs occur, is relatively warm when arriving over the Atlantic Ocean and releases its heat into the Ocean. Over South Central America, northern South America, and West Africa warmer and drier air is arriving, which leads to droughts associated with the ENSO. Over Mexico, North America's Gulf Coast and along the Gulf Stream wetter air is arriving, thus favoring precipitation during El Niño. Our results show that the transport of temperature and moisture anomalies from the EP via the atmosphere plays an important role for the weather conditions in several regions. Key Points: Transported air from the Equatorial Pacific (EP) shows significant anomalies in moisture and heat compared to its environmentThe transport of anomalously dry or wet air can be linked to several observed atmospheric teleconnections associated with El Niño Southern OscillationDeposition of excess energy into the Atlantic Ocean can directly be linked to energetic air from the EP [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf Stream is the only pathway in the subtropical North Atlantic by which warm water flows poleward. This transport of warm water and return of cold water at depth is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The dynamic method is applied to hydrocasts collected since the 1930s to estimate upper‐ocean transport (0–1,000 m) between the U.S. Continental Slope and Bermuda and separately to Africa with focus on the longest directly observable timescale. Calculating transport between the Slope and Bermuda eliminates the Gulf Stream's northern and southern recirculation gyres, while calculations between the Slope and Africa remove all other recirculating geostrophic flow. The net Slope‐Bermuda upper‐ocean transport is estimated to be 41.1 ± 0.4 Sv, decreasing by 2.0 ± 0.8 Sv between 1930 and 2020. The AMOC contribution is 18.4 ± 0.6 Sv, decreasing by 0.4 ± 0.6 Sv between 1930 and 2020. Plain Language Summary: The Gulf Stream is the only pathway by which the ocean transports warm water to high latitudes in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas where it cools, sinks and flows back south at intermediate depths from the subpolar North Atlantic and at greater depths from the Nordic Seas. This circulation pattern, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plays an important role in Earth's climate. But the Gulf Stream is also the wester boundary current to the horizontal circulation driven by the trade winds and westerlies at low and mid‐latitudes. The Gulf Stream also drives large recirculations to its south and north. In this study we use hydrographic data taken since the 1930s to calculate the poleward flow in the Gulf Stream, while canceling out the recirculation and wind‐driven transports to estimate the strength of the north‐flowing portion of the AMOC. There is evidence for a 2.0 Sv Gulf Stream slow‐down between 1930 and 2020. Whether and to what extent this reflects a slowdown of the AMOC or wind‐driven circulation cannot be established with certainty. Our estimate of a 0.4 Sv AMOC decrease is reported with low confidence. Key Points: Direct measurements along the Oleander line (∼37°N) show that the depth of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) maximum is close to 1,000 mNet northward transport between North America and Bermuda equals 41.1 ± 0.4 Sv of which the AMOC accounts for about 18.4 ± 0.6 SvNet northward transport NW of Bermuda slowed by 2 ± 0.8 Sv between 1930 and 2020 with 0.4 ± 0.6 Sv attributed to an AMOC decline [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental and climate science communication often results in the production of appealing but, at times, inaccurate statements, i.e. 'bold statements'. Such statements are common in the media, however, in-cases, are used by scientists alike. We discuss the concept of such statements seeking to identify their origin and purpose, as well as the benefits and threats of such communication methods. By bringing bold statements in context to the paradigm of climate science communication we argue that their use is enforced by the urgent nature of climate change and that bold statements have been proven useful in raising public awareness and mobilizing the public toward positive climate action, as well as in accelerating law-/policy-making processes that follow scientific conclusions. On the other hand, we demonstrate three example cases of bold narratives in climate and environmental science communication, i.e. 1) An upcoming cooling of Europe due to the gulf stream collapsing, 2) a new island made out of garbage in the Pacific Ocean, and 3) an upcoming 'apocalypse'' due to bee extinction. Through those cases, we bring up concerns that using bold statements and sacrificing scientific accuracy in the shrine of public mobilization may backfire, as the use of bold statements encompasses risks by spreading misinformation, and can lead the public to confusion and inappropriate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in computational power, ocean models with kilometer-scale resolution have emerged over the last decade. These models have been used for quantifying the energetic exchanges between spatial scales, informing the design of eddy parametrizations, and preparing observing networks. The increase in resolution, however, has drastically increased the size of model outputs, making it difficult to transfer and analyze the data. It remains, nonetheless, of primary importance to assess more systematically the realism of these models. Here, we showcase a cloud-based analysis framework proposed by the Pangeo project that aims to tackle such distribution and analysis challenges. We analyze the output of eight submesoscale-permitting simulations, all on the cloud, for a crossover region of the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimeter mission near the Gulf Stream separation. The cloud-based analysis framework (i) minimizes the cost of duplicating and storing ghost copies of data and (ii) allows for seamless sharing of analysis results amongst collaborators. We describe the framework and provide example analyses (e.g., sea-surface height variability, submesoscale vertical buoyancy fluxes, and comparison to predictions from the mixed-layer instability parametrization). Basin- to global-scale, submesoscale-permitting models are still at their early stage of development; their cost and carbon footprints are also rather large. It would, therefore, benefit the community to document the different model configurations for future best practices. We also argue that an emphasis on data analysis strategies would be crucial for improving the models themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lateral mesoscale eddy-induced tracer transport is traditionally represented in coarse-resolution models by the flux–gradient relation. In its most complete form, the relation assumes the eddy tracer flux as a product of the large-scale tracer concentration gradient and an eddy transport coefficient tensor. However, several recent studies reported that the tensor has significant spatiotemporal complexity and is not uniquely defined, that is, it is sensitive to the tracer distributions and to the presence of nondivergent ("rotational") components of the eddy flux. These issues could lead to significant biases in the representation of the eddy-induced transport. Using a high-resolution tracer model of the Gulf Stream region, we examine the diffusive and advective properties of lateral eddy-induced transport of dynamically passive tracers, reevaluate the utility of the flux–gradient relation, and propose an alternative approach based on modeling the local eddy forcing by a combination of diffusion and generalized eddy-induced advection. Mesoscale eddies are defined by a scale-based spatial filtering, which leads to the importance of new eddy-induced terms, including eddy-mean covariances in the eddy fluxes. The results show that the biases in representing these terms are noticeably reduced by the new approach. A series of targeted simulations in the high-resolution model further demonstrates that the approach outperforms the flux–gradient model in reproducing the stirring and dispersing effect of eddies. Our study indicates potential to upgrade the traditional flux–gradient relation for representing the eddy-induced tracer transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef‐forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business‐as‐usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher‐resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi‐scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold‐water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom‐contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth‐driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rockall Trough (RT) accommodates the warmest and saltiest branch of the North Atlantic Current, which delivers water from the Gulf Stream into the marine environment around western Europe. In addition, the European Slope Current (ESC) carries warm water northward along the eastern boundary of the RT, and exchange between the ESC and the continental shelf is a dominant factor in determining the oceanographic conditions around the British Isles. However, the picture of the mean circulation and variability in the RT is still emerging, with a continuous observational campaign still in its relative infancy. The ESC, in particular, is poorly constrained by ship‐based, mooring, and satellite observations. In this paper, we examine the RT circulation and volume transport using a temporally extended and spatially expanded observing network. Six years of continuous mooring occupation reveal that a large‐amplitude, basin‐scale freshening event, previously detected south of Iceland around 2015, impacted the RT around 2017. Geostrophic transport was greatly reduced during this period, driven by a concurrent subsurface temperature increase at the western boundary. The circulation regained strength during the latter part of the record. We gathered 110 glider transects over 22 months which capture the ESC velocity field in unprecedented detail. The data are sufficient to characterize both the mean state and the emergent seasonal variability of the ESC, and reveal the year‐round presence of a southward countercurrent at depth. Variability in the strength and structure of this previously unstudied feature modulates net northward transport in the eastern boundary current system. Plain Language Summary: The Rockall Trough (RT) is a key pathway for warm and salty water flowing northward, a process which plays a key role in dictating the western European climate. However, the amount of water flowing northward, and how it changes over time, is still rather uncertain. In particular, the narrow boundary current in the eastern RT has previously proven difficult to measure. In this paper, we use 6 years of continuous oceanographic observations in the RT to monitor the flow. We also used underwater robots, called gliders, to focus on the narrow current in the eastern boundary. The data gathered give the best description of the ocean currents in the region to date. The study period coincided with a period of profound change across the subpolar North Atlantic, with a strong freshwater signal detected in the RT around 2017. The glider observations give a detailed view of the narrow eastern boundary current and how it varies seasonally, and also revealed the presence of a southward‐flowing current at depth. Key Points: Eastern boundary current system captured in unprecedented detail using 22 months of near‐continuous glider observationsLarge‐scale freshening event in subpolar North Atlantic impacted Rockall Trough (RT) around 2017Interannual variability in poleward transport driven by subsurface temperature anomalies at the western flank of the RT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The convergence of different water masses on the shelf and along the shelfbreak, and cross‐isobath shelf‐open ocean exchanges contribute to the complex circulation near Cape Hatteras. We examine the mean and variability of these circulations using data from nine bottom‐mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers, deployed over the mid‐ to outer‐continental shelf north and south of Cape Hatteras as part of the Processes driving Exchange At Cape Hatteras program. The 18‐month‐mean depth‐averaged shelf flows are mostly aligned with isobaths and oriented toward Cape Hatteras. At two sites just north of Cape Hatteras, mean flows have a strong cross‐shelf component. Two dominant spatial patterns in the velocity field are obtained from an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The two leading modes contain 61% of the total variance. The spatial variation of Mode 1 exhibits an along‐shelf flow pattern, while that of Mode 2 shows a convergent flow pattern. The principal component (PC) series of Mode 1 is significantly correlated with the local wind stress, confirming that the along‐shelf flow is wind‐driven as expected. The PC of Mode 2 is highly correlated with the Gulf Stream lateral position as inferred from the current‐ and pressure‐sensor‐equipped inverted echo sounders over the slope south of Cape Hatteras, which indicates that Gulf Stream movement drives time‐varying shelf flow convergence. Conditionally averaged sea‐surface temperature and high‐frequency radar‐measured surface currents based on PC1 and PC2 confirm these relationships and further illustrate how the wind and Gulf Stream forcing work together to influence the flow regime in this region. Plain Language Summary: Several oceanographic processes occur within a small geographic area east of Cape Hatteras. Cool and warm ocean currents meet and collide on the continental shelf, resulting in complex exchange between the shelf and the adjacent open ocean. To better characterize the complicated circulation and understand the processes driving exchanges in this region, we analyze 18‐month current velocity data from an observational array deployed near Cape Hatteras on the shelf and the neighboring continental slope. The time‐mean circulation is characterized as converging flows both on the shelf and along the shelfbreak. We find two dominant spatial patterns in the current velocity: a wind‐driven along‐shelf flow pattern and a Gulf Stream‐driven convergent flow pattern. Additionally, the combined effect of the wind and Gulf Stream forcings mainly drives the shelf and open ocean exchanges. Key Points: The time‐mean depth‐averaged shelf and shelfbreak currents are mostly aligned with isobaths and oriented toward Cape HatterasOn average, the open‐ocean water intrudes on the shelf south of The Point while the shelf water exports to the open ocean north of The PointWind‐driven along‐shelf flow pattern and Gulf Stream‐driven convergent flow pattern are predominant in the shelf velocity field [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier reconstructions of the glacial history of the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago, commonly portrayed Banks Island as an ice-free biological refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, ostensibly constituting the northeast extremity of Beringia. This has now been contradicted by widespread fieldwork across the northern and western coasts documenting their inundation by the northwest Laurentide Ice Sheet that extended onto the polar continental shelf. Here we report the surficial geology and deglacial sea levels across southern Banks Island completing the island-wide evidence for a pervasive ice cover during the Late Wisconsinan. Moraines and erratics confirm the passage of an ice stream at least 1.1 km thick through Amundsen Gulf that onlapped the south coast of the island. The inland margin of the ice stream is marked by a prominent 80 km long shear moraine (Sachs moraine) that contacted thin, cold-based Laurentide ice crossing the island's interior. Subsequent thinning and retreat of the Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream from the Sachs moraine occurred in concert with its separation from topographically-confined ice lobes in the interior recorded by prominent ice-marginal meltwater channels. As the ice stream retreated offshore, a prominent kettled outwash plain was deposited along the coast marking marine limit at 20 m asl. From an unknown position offshore, the ice stream readvanced deforming the south shore of the kettled lowland marked by the 40 km long 'Sand Hills moraine'. Based on updated field mapping, the 'Sand Hills moraine' is now recognized as the westward extension of the more widespread Jesse moraine belt. Deglacial marine limit rises eastward across the island from 11 to 40 m asl, bordering Prince of Wales Strait. Marine limit and all lower shorelines across the island's south coast (for ∼ 200 km) are barren of marine shells. This is because sea level had regressed from marine limit to a lowstand offshore before Pacific molluscs recolonized the western Canadian Arctic at 13.7 cal ka BP, their entry occasioned by the resubmergence of Bering Strait. This requires that the breakup of the western Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream (including the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream along northern Banks Island) occurred before 14 cal ka BP, documenting that the NW Laurentide Ice Sheet must have contributed to Meltwater-Pulse-1A. Although the retreat from the outermost parts of the Jesse moraine belt also pre-date the arrival of shells, we show that the youngest (central) segment along eastern Amundsen Gulf dates to ∼12.9 cal ka BP, documenting that the Jesse moraine belt is highly time transgressive (spanning >13.7 to 12.9 cal ka BP). Radiocarbon dates on woody plants and bryophytes demonstrate that the island was biologically viable as early as 12.6 cal ka BP and that all coastlines were submergent soon afterwards and remain so today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast US Continental Shelf (NES) is a highly productive marine ecosystem that has experienced wide swings in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (CHL). To better understand this variability, we examined changes in CHL over the period 1998–2022, while also considering three indicators of the potential supply of nutrient source waters including cross-shelf advection via deep channels, transport from beyond the shelf edge via Gulf Stream warm core rings (WCR), and input from river and estuarine discharge. Traditionally, deep channel advection of water across the NES was assumed to be derived from Labrador Slope Water (LSW) and Warm Slope Water (WSW). These designations do not fully capture the range of water types contributing to cross-shelf advection. The contribution of LSW and WSW was reciprocal over time, with the presence of WSW at an increased level in recent years. There has been an increase in the number of WCRs off the NES represented by indices of ring occupancy. Precipitation increased over the study period as well, generally over the NES region and in particular in the Mid-Atlantic Bight drainage. We see evidence of the effect of increased precipitation on the NES proper through a change in the area of the ocean surface having 555 nm reflectance with sr−1 > 0.004. Using a canonical analysis, CHL correlated positively with the proportion of LSW and negatively with WSW. These correlations suggest there are aspects of the nutrient content associated with these water masses that are key to phytoplankton growth. WCR frequency negatively correlated with CHL, which was expected since the nutrient loadings of WCRs tends to be low. Finally, CHL negatively correlated with precipitation rate, which suggests terrestrial origin nutrient inputs to the NES are minor. We suggest that in order to understand future CHL dynamics in the NES, careful consideration of advective sources of nutrients in the Northwest Atlantic is necessary. • Northeast US Continental Shelf (NES) chlorophyll concentration (CHL) was examined. • CHL correlated with the type of deep source water entering the NES via channels. • Water sources associated with the Labrador Current seems to favor CHL production. • Fishery production potential appears related to the contribution of source waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, recruitment of young-of-year lobsters to benthic nursery habitats in the Gulf of Maine was regionally synchronized and exhibited correlative links with changes in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a foundational zooplankton species of the pelagic food web. The spatial scale at which recruitment dynamics were correlated indicated that recruitment processes were not as strongly coupled to trends in spawner abundance as might be expected, but, rather, were influenced by common, ecosystem-scale processes. Here we explored how local- and basin-scale zooplankton dynamics and oceanographic indicators in the Gulf of Maine correlated with lobster settlement indices and each other since the late 1980s. Our analysis indicates that lobster settlement trends in southwestern Gulf of Maine study areas, from Midcoast Maine to Cape Cod Bay, tend to be significantly correlated with basin-wide C. finmarchicus dynamics and the composition of waters entering the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel. In contrast, lobster settlement in the northeastern Gulf, from Penobscot Bay to the Bay of Fundy, tended to correlate more strongly to C. finmarchicus variability in the Bay of Fundy region, which was distinct in earlier years but converged with the broader basin-scale processes in the latter years. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the combined effect of climate-related declines in abundance and phenological shifts of C. finmarchicus have contributed to declines in lobster settlement over the past decade, and justify further research into the mechanisms of this interaction. These changes also align with the weakening influence of cold Labrador Slope Water and strengthening effects of warm Gulf Stream waters that precipitated an ecosystem-wide regime shift in the Gulf of Maine over the past decade and may have greater implications for lobster recruitment than previously suspected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the effects of wind and waves (EWW) on the Doppler centroid frequency shift is a key step in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) retrieval of ocean currents. However, available models for estimating EWW may exhibit errors as they fail to fully consider the wave and current effects or uncorrected electromagnetic pointing errors. In this study, we corrected the electromagnetic pointing error of Sentinel-1A. In particular, by matching the current data provided by the high-frequency (HF) radar, we accurately obtained the EWW from July 2020 to June 2023. By using the wind and wave parameters provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the variation characteristics of EWW were analyzed and four geophysical model functions (GMFs) were established using different wave parameters. The application of these GMFs to the retrieval of currents was validated using the HF radar. The optimal current retrieval accuracy in terms of the time series and statistical results was then achieved using the model containing the most comprehensive wave parameters, with a bias of 0.01 m/s and a root mean square error of 0.19 m/s. The proposed model demonstrates the ability to retrieve 100 km scale eddy currents in the Gulf Stream, exhibiting a high agreement with HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis data, with a bias and root mean square error of approximately −0.03–0.13 m/s and 0.2–0.32 m/s, respectively. The results fully demonstrate that the GMFs established in this study can facilitate the improvement of the SAR retrievals of ocean currents. Moreover, the ability of the proposed model to capture the velocity variations of subscale eddy currents is proved, providing an important tool for oceanographic research. • Effects of wind fields and waves on SAR Doppler center frequency shift. • Accuracy of SAR retrieval of currents with different wind and wave parameters. • Radial eddy current velocities retrieved by SAR are highly consistent with HYCOM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buoyant cross-shelf river plumes can extend far offshore through the combined effect of buoyancy and wind forcing, creating a critical land-ocean link in global biogeochemical cycles. On the Carolinas continental shelf, cross-shelf plume structure has been analyzed using satellite imagery, with forcing conditions represented by an estuarine Richardson number, wind stress, and alongshore pressure gradient. Three distinct cross-shelf plume patterns emerged, each occurring under an upwelling-favorable wind: (1) The separated plume, when a single filament of buoyant water spreads offshore (a prototypical cross-shelf plume structure); (2) The upwind-curving plume, which turns against the wind at some offshore distance and is created by stronger buoyancy forcing; and (3) The multi-lobe plume, which is partially trapped by the coast with multiple streaks protruding offshore and is created by stronger wind forcing, and further aided by a coincident alongshore pressure gradient force. The latter two regimes represent a low-wind, high discharge limit and a strong-wind limit of cross-shelf plumes. High-resolution satellite images reveal rich submesoscale variability associated with each plume type. Results suggest plume transport extends farthest offshore in low-energy separated plumes through a balance of weak buoyancy and weak wind forcing. • Cross-shelf plumes are formed by light-to-moderate upwelling favorable winds. • Stronger winds shut down the estuarine outflow separation from the coastline. • High river discharge reduces the optimal wind stress range for cross-shelf plumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the effects of ambient turbulence (expressed often in terms of the turbulence intensity I t) is critical to the development of predictive models for the performance of Ocean Current Turbine (OCTs). This paper describes a new, wake interaction modeling framework capable of capturing the detailed effects of turbulence on various performance parameters associated with OCTs that may be arranged in any arbitrary configuration. The model accounts for the effects of turbulence on the structure of the turbine wakes, specifically the extents of near- and far-wake regions, and the dependence of the transition point between the two regions on I t. The analytical description for turbine wake is combined with an existing wake interaction model, the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) model to predict the global power output from an array of OCTs. The resulting modelling framework accurately captures the effect of inlet turbulence on the OCT farm power and efficiency, and can be applied to any array configuration. Results from the model are validated against Large Eddy Simulations (LES) in which the OCTs are modeled using the Blade Element Momentum (BEM) model, while the inlet flow is superposed with a synthetic turbulence field designed to approximate turbulence properties obtained from observational measurements of the Gulf Stream. The simulations show that OCT wakes recover faster at higher levels of inlet turbulence due to the enhanced entrainment and mixing between ambient flow and the wake, an effect that is captured by the modified UWFLO model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study demonstrates that a decrease of the water‐mass density below 1,000 m has led to a pattern of see‐saw shift in the Gulf Stream (GS) position between 74 and 50°W in longitude during 1993–2017, with the New England Seamounts as the pivot point. The GS moved northward in the upstream region and shifted southward in the downstream. Our empirical orthogonal function analyses of satellite altimeter data demonstrate that the second mode (EOF2) represents changes in the GS strength and therefore can be used as an index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Decreasing water density below 1,000 m is also the principal mechanism driving the weakening of the GS. Plain Language Summary: The Gulf Stream (GS) plays an important role in transporting heat from low to high latitudes, and its path becomes highly variable after passing the Cape Hatteras. Previous studies reported controversial behaviors of the path. Our study discovers that the changes in the path before and after the New England Seamounts are different, that the position of the upstream segment has a northward trend whereas the downstream segment has a southward trend. This study reveals that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the altimeter data can represent the strength of the GS, and the changing strength is a controlling factor for the changing path. This study also finds that declining water density in the deep layer contributes to decreasing strength of the GS. Key Points: The Gulf Stream (GS) path has an oscillating spatial pattern, which is induced by declining water density at deep layerA new index for the strength of GS is proposed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gulf Stream flounder, Citharichthys arctifrons, are regularly observed in fish diets of the northeast U.S. continental shelf, yet lack commercial value and are often ignored. Similarly, Gulf Stream flounder diets of the Northwest Atlantic have remained largely unexamined, except for a brief period from 1976 to 1980. To better understand their role in the ecosystem, juvenile through adult Gulf Stream flounder were examined both as a predator and prey, and the magnitude of their feeding footprint (removal of prey biomass) was quantified for the northeast U.S. continental shelf. Their stomachs were sampled from 2005 to 2010, with the majority examined in the field macroscopically. Due to large proportions of unidentifiable prey, the effort was expanded in 2011–2012, and all stomachs were processed in the laboratory microscopically. Gulf Stream flounder were consumed by 15 fish, and what they eat (percentage mass and percentage frequency of occurrence) was documented by season, spatial region and year. Highly benthivorous, Gammaridea and Polychaeta dominated the diet in all years, seasons and regions, but Ophiuroidea (brittle stars) were also prominent in Southern New England during the spring. Gulf Stream flounder diets remained consistent across regions and time, with only a few feeding differences between seasons and one region. Relative to the productivity of benthos for this shelf ecosystem, the feeding footprint of Gulf Stream flounder was minor for their predominant benthic prey with a maximum percentage of benthos production eaten of 0.01% m−2 in Southern New England. With an ecosystem perspective, this feeding information offers a foundation for improving fisheries management among shared living marine resources considering benthic habitat and prey availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° to 0.25° in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A gridded ocean subsurface salinity dataset with global coverage is useful for research on climate change and its variability. Here, we explore the feed-forward neural network (FFNN) approach to reconstruct a high-resolution (0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘) ocean subsurface (1–2000 m) salinity dataset for the period 1993–2018 by merging in situ salinity profile observations with high-resolution (0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘) satellite remote-sensing altimetry absolute dynamic topography (ADT), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface wind (SSW) field data, and a coarse-resolution (1 ∘ × 1 ∘) gridded salinity product. We show that the FFNN can effectively transfer small-scale spatial variations in ADT, SST, and SSW fields into the 0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ salinity field. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) can be reduced by ∼11 % on a global-average basis compared with the 1 ∘ × 1 ∘ salinity gridded field. The reduction in RMSE is much larger in the upper ocean than the deep ocean because of stronger mesoscale variations in the upper layers. In addition, the new 0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ reconstruction shows more realistic spatial signals in the regions with strong mesoscale variations, e.g., the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions, than the 1 ∘ × 1 ∘ resolution product, indicating the efficiency of the machine learning approach in bringing satellite observations together with in situ observations. The large-scale salinity patterns from 0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ data are consistent with the 1 ∘ × 1 ∘ gridded salinity field, suggesting the persistence of the large-scale signals in the high-resolution reconstruction. The successful application of machine learning in this study provides an alternative approach for ocean and climate data reconstruction that can complement the existing data assimilation and objective analysis methods. The reconstructed IAP0.25 ∘ dataset is freely available at 10.57760/sciencedb.o00122.00001 (Tian et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pietrafesa, L.J.; Bao, S.; Gayes, P.T.; Carpenter, D.D., and Kowal, J.C., 2022. Variability and trends of the Florida current and implications for the future of the Gulf Stream. Journal of Coastal Research, 38(6), 1096–1103. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Ocean Basin Western Boundary Current, plays a key role in moderating the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean Basin and surrounding landmasses. However, the Gulf Stream has been widely reported in the public media to be slowing down in its volumetric transport to the north, related to the reported weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The recent exposé claims that the Gulf Stream may be in the throes of an irreversible collapse. This would have serious implications for the future climate of not only the United States, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia, the British Isles, and Europe, but for the entire planet, per se. In this study, investigations of the volumetric flux of the Florida Current took place that constitutes the formative beginning of the Gulf Stream at the Florida Straits to determine if there is evidence of a slowing of this major Western Boundary Current at the latitude of its beginning source. Findings include multiple, well-defined frequency and amplitude modulated internal modes of current variability in the 38-year record of Florida Current volumetric transport, ranging from weekly to monthly to seasonally to annually to interannually and decadal. The time series reveals an overall slowing of approximately 0.98×106 meters3/second (equivalent to approximately one Sverdrup), or a 2.795% drop over the nearly four past decades of daily observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In shallow coastal shelves like the Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB), ocean acidification due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is compounded by highly variable coastal processes including riverine freshwater inputs, nutrient loading, biogeochemical influence, coastal currents and water mass mixing, and seasonal transitions in physical parameters. Past deconstructions of carbonate system drivers in the MAB have focused on nearshore zones or single season data, and thus lack the spatial and temporal resolution required to assess impacts to important species occupying the shelf. Deconstructing highly resolved data collected during four seasonal Slocum glider deployments in the MAB, this study uses a Taylor Series decomposition to quantify the influence of temperature, salinity, biogeochemical activity, and water mass mixing on pH and aragonite saturation state from sea surface to bottom. Results show that water mass mixing and biogeochemical activity were the most significant drivers of the carbonate system in the MAB. Nearshore water was more acidic year‐round due to riverine freshwater input, but photosynthesis reduced acidity at certain depths and times. Water mass mixing increased acidity in bottom water on the shelf, particularly in summer. Gulf Stream intrusions at the shelf break during fall acted to mitigate acidification on the shelf in habitats occupied by carbonate‐bearing organisms. The relationships quantified here can be used to improve biogeochemical forecast models and determine habitat suitability for commercially important fin and shellfish species residing in the MAB. Plain Language Summary: The coastal ocean is experiencing changes in chemistry due to human activities, including carbon dioxide emissions, nutrient runoff, and seasonal changes in temperature, salinity, and coastal currents. These drivers have been studied close to shore and/or only during single seasons, leaving a gap in our understanding of seasonal changes across the entire economically important shelf region. Here, we use high‐resolution data collected by a deep‐sea robot that measures chemistry from ocean surface to the sea floor. We determined the importance of four key influences (temperature, salinity, water mass mixing, and biological activity) on changes in coastal chemistry over the course of a year. We found that the most important driver of shelf chemistry was mixing of freshwater at the coast and warm, salty water at the edge of the shelf. Biological activity was a secondary influence, which caused smaller scale changes in chemistry. These results can help to predict how coastal chemistry might change in the future, so that we can prepare for the effects on economically important animals and industries. Key Points: Water mass mixing and biogeochemical activity are the major drivers of seasonal carbonate system dynamics in the Mid‐Atlantic BightWater mass mixing has opposing effects on carbonate chemistry in the nearshore and at the continental shelf break [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model resolution and the included physical processes are two of the most important factors that determine the realism of ocean model simulations. In this study, a new global surface wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model FIO-COM32 with a resolution of 1/32°×1/32° is developed and validated. Promotion of the horizontal resolution from 1/10° to 1/32° leads to significant improvements in the simulations of surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE), main paths of the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, and the global tides. We propose the Integrated Circulation Route Error (ICRE) as a quantitative criteria to evaluate the simulated main paths of Kuroshio and Gulf Stream. The non-breaking surface wave-induced mixing (Bv) is proven to still be an important contributor that improves the agreement of the simulated summer mixed layer depth (MLD) and the Argo observations even with a high horizontal resolution of 1/32°. The mean error of the simulated mid-latitude summer MLD is reduced from -4.8 m in the numerical experiment without Bv to -0.6 m in experiment with Bv. By including the global tide, the global distributions of internal tide can be explicitly simulated in this new model and are comparable to the satellite observations. Based on Jason3 along-track sea surface height (SSH), wave number spectral slopes of mesoscale ranges and wave number-frequency analysis show that the unbalanced motions induced SSH undulation is a key factor for the substantially improved agreement between model and satellite observations in the low latitudes and low EKE regions. For ocean model community, surface waves, tidal currents and ocean circulations have been separated into different streams for more than half a century. This paper suggests that it should be the time to merge these three streams for new generation ocean model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent hypoxic bottom waters have developed in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE) and have impacted fish and benthic species distributions. Minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations decreased from ~125 µmol L-1 (38% saturation) in the 1930s to ~ 65 µmol L-1 (21% saturation) in 1984. Dissolved oxygen concentrations remained at hypoxic levels (< 62.5 μM = 2 mg l-1 or 20% saturation) between 1984 and 2019 but, in 2020, they suddenly decreased to ~35 μmol 1. Concurrently, bottom-water temperatures in the LSLE have increased progressively from ~3°C in the 1930's to nearly °C in 2021. The main driver of deoxygenation and warming in the bottom waters of Gulf and St. Lawrence Estuary is a change in the circulation pattern in the western North Atlantic, more specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of younger, well-oxygenated and cold Labrador Current Waters to the waters of the Laurentian Channel, a deep valley that extends from the continental shelf edge, through Cabot Strait, the Gulf and to the head of the LSLE. Hence, the warmer, oxygen-depleted North Atlantic Central Waters carried by the Gulf Stream now make up nearly 100% of the waters entering the Laurentian Channel. The areal extent of the hypoxic zone in the LSLE has varied since 1993 when it was first estimated 1300 km². In 2021, it reached 9700 km², extending well into the western Gulf of St. Lawrence. Severely hypoxic waters are now also found at the end of the two deep channels that branch out from the Laurentian Channel, namely the Esquiman and Anticosti Channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been hypothesized that initial conditions derived from eddy‐resolving ocean models could benefit eddy‐permitting forecast systems at subseasonal lead times (∼$$ \sim $$2 weeks to ∼$$ \sim $$2 months) by providing improved ocean initial conditions and reduced sea‐surface temperature (SST) errors associated with a more realistic representation of mesoscale features and ocean fronts such as the Gulf Stream. Here, we test this hypothesis by running a series of coupled 32‐day reforecasts with ocean initial conditions derived from native resolution (i.e., eddy‐permitting) and higher resolution (i.e., eddy‐resolving) ocean reanalyses. Initial conditions derived from the eddy‐resolving reanalysis reproduce observed temperature and sea‐level variability associated with mesoscale ocean eddies more accurately. Furthermore, forecasts of ocean variables are significantly improved in the extratropics, particularly in regions of observed intense mesoscale variability. This result is relevant for the marine forecasting community and demonstrates the potential for improved probabilistic forecasts of ocean variables in affordable ensemble forecast systems. However, the impacts on the mean state and forecast skill in the atmosphere are more limited. Based on an evaluation of model biases as a function of lead time, we conclude that there is room for further improvements to the initialization of the Gulf Stream that could lead to more significant impacts on atmospheric skill. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our reforecasts underestimate the strength of mesoscale air–sea interaction in the vicinity of strong SST fronts by 20–40%. We speculate that the impacts of improved ocean eddy initialization on atmospheric forecast skill may be larger in coupled models with higher ocean and atmosphere resolutions that can simulate air–sea interaction in the midlatitudes more realistically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Failure to account for the impacts of climate and ecosystem change on stock dynamics can introduce uncertainty to stock assessments that can make meeting the objective of sustainable fisheries management challenging. The increased prevalence and magnitude of uncertainty in New England groundfish stock assessments (i.e. retrospective patterns) in recent years suggest that there may be common drivers impacting these stocks that are currently unaccounted for in the stock assessment. We examined the coherence in retrospective patterns across groundfish stock assessments and evaluated candidate drivers of retrospective patterns, including large-scale climate and ecosystem change, as well as significant management and monitoring changes. We found high coherence in moving window Mohn's rho time series for groundfish within the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank areas. Fluctuations in Gulf of Maine groundfish Mohn's rho values were most strongly related to lagged bottom temperature and spiny dogfish biomass time series, whereas fluctuations in Georges Bank groundfish Mohn's rho values were strongly related to lagged time series of warm core rings formation from the Gulf Stream. Our identification of coherence in retrospective patterns across groundfish stocks by region supports the idea of common regional drivers with climate and ecosystem changes emerging as the leading contributing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to alter rainfall and temperature regimes across the world. The hydrology and riparian zone vegetation of lotic ecosystems are tightly linked to rainfall and a mechanistic understanding of the effects of rainfall on lotic ecosystems is needed to forecast the ecological impacts of climate change. However, it is difficult to isolate rainfall effects from other environmental variables that covary across climates. To address this, we leveraged a unique steep rainfall gradient with few covarying changes in elevation, temperature, and geology to evaluate the effects of rainfall on stream invertebrate communities.We surveyed nine streams in the Texas Gulf Coast Prairie distributed along a 550–1,350 mm/year rainfall gradient. Four sites were classified as drier semi‐arid streams (<750 mm annual rainfall) and five sites were classified as wetter sub‐humid streams (>750 mm annual rainfall). A suite of characteristics including benthic invertebrate community metrics, flow conditions, and water quality variables were assessed monthly for 14 months at each site to relate precipitation regime to stream structure and function.Precipitation regime was observed to be a master explanatory variable. As annual rainfall increased, the flow environment became more stable within seasons and predictable across seasons, influencing spatial structure and temporal variability of invertebrate community composition. Wetter streams were dominated by slower growing taxa without adaptions for desiccation resistance and strong dispersal. Wetter sites displayed seasonal variation in community composition and species richness, whereas temporal variation in communities in drier streams was controlled by stochastic variation in flow conditions.These observations show that differences in local annual rainfall correlated with major changes to community structure and functional composition. We hypothesise that this association is related to the connection of rainfall to hydrological stability, particularly the frequency of low flow disturbances, and the subsequent effects on riparian vegetation and temporally available niches to stream invertebrates. Our work adds to evidence that alterations in precipitation patterns associated with climate change have sweeping impacts on lotic fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and robust retrieval of ocean color from remote sensing enables critical observations of aquatic natural systems, from open ocean biological oceanography, coastal biodiversity, and water quality for human health. In the last decade, studies have increasingly highlighted the important role of small‐scale processes in coastal and marine ecology and biogeochemistry, but observation and modeling at these scales remains technologically limited. Unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS, aka drones) can rapidly sample large areas with high spatial and temporal resolution; but the challenge of accurately retrieving ocean color, particularly with common wide field‐of‐view multispectral imagers, has limited the adoption of this technology. As UAS endurance, autonomy, and sensor capabilities continue to increase, so does this technology's potential to observe the ocean at fine scales, but only if proper protocols are followed. The present study provides a guide for achieving (1) ideal viewing geometry of UAS‐borne ocean color sensors, (2) techniques for the removal of sun glint and reflected skylight to derive water‐leaving radiances, (3) characterization of uncertainty in these measurements, and (4) converting water‐leaving radiances to remote‐sensing reflectance for analytic end products such as chlorophyll a estimates. Documented open‐source code facilitates replication of this emerging technique. Using this methodology, we briefly describing fine‐scale variability of the Gulf Stream front off North Carolina alongside synoptic satellite data and in situ measurements for comparison. These results demonstrate how UAS‐based ocean color measurements complement and enhance conventional ocean observations and modeling to resolve fine‐scale variability and close the lacuna between satellite and in situ methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf Stream (GS) plays a key role in shaping the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front undergoes interannual-to-decadal variability that is thought to force significant atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, general circulation models do not accurately reproduce the atmospheric response to SST front variability as estimated from observations. In this work we analyze the atmospheric response to the GS SST front (GSF) shifts in a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs (1950–2014). The atmospheric response is found to be resolution dependent. Only the high-resolution simulations produce a wintertime response similar to observed anomalies. More specifically, (i) analysis of the atmospheric thermodynamic balance close to the GSF showed that the anomalous diabatic heating associated to the GSF displacement is mainly balanced by vertical motion and by meridional transient eddy heat transport (not the case for low-resolution models), while (ii) the large-scale response includes a meridional shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and storm track homodirectional to the GSF displacement. This atmospheric response is accompanied by changes in low-level baroclinicity close to and north of the GSF, resulting from the oceanic forcing and the zonal atmospheric circulation anomalies respectively. The low-level baroclinicity anomalies lead to changes in baroclinic eddy activity and, ultimately, in the jet via eddy–mean flow interaction. Considering the two-way nature of air–sea interactions, using historical atmosphere-only simulations is a powerful way to isolate the impact of realistic oceanic variability on the atmosphere. Our results suggest that interannual-to-decadal predictability may be higher than what low-resolution models currently indicate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant societally important climate impacts can be caused by changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at higher latitudes. Focusing on variability and long‐term change of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA)—a key AMOC action center—and using eastern OSNAP array observations, we identify a distinct density and sea‐surface height signature of the AMOC strength in the Irminger Sea (2014–2018), reinforced and extended with an ocean reanalysis (1993–2018). Reconstruction of AMOC variability using Irminger Sea density shows strong control by the North Atlantic Oscillation on subpolar overturning on multiple timescales, achieved via the gyre circulation and waters from the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, the observed decrease of Irminger Sea density since the mid‐twentieth century (1950–2019) is suggestive of a long‐term AMOC weakening of 2.2 Sv or 13%, however, this trend remains statistically insignificant due to the large interannual and decadal variability of the SPNA. Plain Language Summary: The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Ocean between Greenland and Scotland is a region that is key to the health of the Gulf Stream system. Here, the warm currents carrying heat from the subtropics become denser along their way from Scotland toward Greenland; a process that has a strong imprint on the strength of this vital ocean current system. In this work, we find that ocean density in the Irminger Sea east of Greenland in the SPNA explains most of the variability of the directly measured strength of the Gulf Stream system. Based on this relationship, we reconstruct density variations in this region from historical hydrographic observations to reveal whether the Gulf Stream system in the SPNA has been changing over the past 70 years. While there is suggestive evidence for a slow‐down of this system in the SPNA in recent decades there is no consensus regarding its relevance to longer timescales. Key Points: Irminger Sea is the center of action for subpolar Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability from interannual to multidecadal time scalesIrminger Sea density variations are controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation through its subpolar gyre connection to the Labrador SeaIrminger Sea density trends suggests uncertain weakening of the subpolar AMOC since 1950 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric river (AR) is the primary moisture transport forcing in the Western United States, making ARs the predominant producer of extreme precipitation events in this region. A growing body of evidence suggests similar impacts for the Central and Eastern US This study determines the most prominent types of ARs in the Central and Eastern US study domain through the implementation of a machine learning methodology. Self‐organizing maps (SOMs) are leveraged to determine what "flavors" of ARs exist in the study domain. Four atmospheric river detection criteria are utilized to investigate the variability AR types. Mann‐Kendall trend analyses on AR strength and size are produced to evaluate changes over the study period. The results confirm extratropical cyclones as the most common driver of ARs, however, limited kinematic forcing can also instigate the development of AR events. Results show coastal cyclones and lee‐side cyclones are responsible for producing the strongest ARs. The trend analysis results suggest that ARs associated with Nor'easters and ARs originating in the Gulf of Mexico are exhibiting increasing trends in intensity and/or size. Increasing moisture transport by mature cyclones across the Central and Eastern US have important implications for flooding in highly populated corridors. Areas of concern include the Northeast and Southeast US, while localized enhancement of rainfall is seen along the eastern and southern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. In addition to the physical findings, this research highlights the importance and sensitivity of statistically significant results to the specific atmospheric river detection criteria that was leveraged. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a primary driver of moving moisture through Earth's atmosphere usually by winds produced by large, non‐tropical cyclones. In the United States (US), ARs have been linked with extreme rainfall events and flooding. This study investigates the different "types" or "flavors" of ARs in the Central and Eastern US, where AR‐focused studies are less numerous than the Western US Self‐organizing maps (SOMs), a form of machine learning, are built to determine the AR types. Additionally, an analysis is conducted on the strength and size of ARs to determine if they are changing the amount of moisture being moved over the 41‐year study period. The SOMs confirm non‐tropical cyclones as the primary producer of strong ARs with "Nor'easter" cyclones and cyclones forming over the Upper Midwest producing the strongest ARs. The results suggest that strong cyclones are transporting increasing amounts of moisture, via ARs, through the study period. Increasing trends in AR transport across the Central and Eastern US have important implications for flooding in highly populated corridors, including the Northeast and Southeast US. Key Points: Self‐organizing maps are effective at detecting atmospheric rivers in the Eastern US, the strongest of which are produced by extratropical cyclonesAtmospheric rivers associated with strong coastal cyclones show statistically significant increasing moisture transportStrong atmospheric rivers rooted in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf Stream lead to the most intense rainfall and are situated over large population centers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of sea-level change to its different drivers is typically done using a sea-level budget (SLB) approach. While the global mean SLB is considered closed, closing the SLB on a finer spatial scale is more complicated due to, for instance, limitations in our observational system and the spatial processes contributing to regional sea-level change. Consequently, the regional SLB has been mainly analysed on a basin-wide scale. Here we investigate the SLB at sub-basin scales, using two machine learning techniques to extract domains of coherent sea-level variability: a neural network approach (Self-Organising Maps) and a network detection approach (δ-MAPS). The extracted domains provide a higher level of spatial detail than entire ocean basins and besides indicating how sea-level variability is connected among different regions. Using these domains we can close the regional SLB world-wide on different spatial scales. Steric variations dominate the temporal sea-level variability and determine a significant part of the total regional change. Sea-level change due to mass transport between ocean and land has a relatively homogeneous contribution to all regions. In highly dynamic regions (e.g., Gulf Stream region) the dynamic mass redistribution is significant. Regions where the SLB cannot be closed highlight processes that are affecting sea level but are not well captured by the observations, such as the influence of western boundary currents. Hence, the use of the SLB approach in combination with machine learning techniques leads to new insights into regional sea-level variability and its drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Processes driving Exchange At Cape Hatteras (PEACH) program seeks to better understand seawater exchanges between the continental shelf and the open ocean near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This location is where the Gulf Stream transitions from a boundary-trapped current to a free jet, and where robust along-shelf convergence brings cool, relatively fresh Middle Atlantic Bight and warm, salty South Atlantic Bight shelf waters together, forming an important and dynamic biogeographic boundary. The magnitude of this convergence implies large export of shelf water to the open ocean here. Background on the oceanography of the region provides motivation for the study and gives context for the measurements that were made. Science questions focus on the roles that wind forcing, Gulf Stream forcing, and lateral density gradients play in driving exchange. PEACH observational efforts include a variety of fixed and mobile observing platforms, and PEACH modeling included two different resolutions and data assimilation schemes. Findings to date on mean circulation, the nature of export from the southern Middle Atlantic Bight shelf, Gulf Stream variability, and position variability of the Hatteras Front are summarized, together with a look ahead to forthcoming analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]