Search

Background: Since February 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has rapidly spread throughout Italy. Some studies showed an association of environmental factors, such as PM10, PM2.5, NO2, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and mobility with the spread of the epidemic. In this work, we aimed to predict via Deep Learning the real-time transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the province of Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy, in a grid with a small resolution (12 km × 12 km), including satellite information.Methods: We focused on the Province of Reggio Emilia, which was severely hit by the first wave of the epidemic. The outcomes included new SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospital admissions. Pollution, meteorological and mobility data were analyzed. The spatial simulation domain included the Province of Reggio Emilia in a grid of 40 cells of (12 km)2. We implemented a ConvLSTM, which is a spatio-temporal deep learning approach, to perform a 7-day moving average to forecast the 7th day after. We used as training and validation set the new daily infections and hospital admissions from August 2020 to March 2021. Finally, we assessed the models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared with Mean Observed Value (MOV) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) on data from April to September 2021. We tested the performance of different combinations of input variables to find the best forecast model.Findings: Daily new cases of infection, mobility and wind speed resulted in being strongly predictive of new COVID-19 hospital admissions (MAE = 2.72 in the Province of Reggio Emilia; MAE = 0.62 in Reggio Emilia city), whereas daily new cases, mobility, solar radiation and PM2.5 turned out to be the best predictors to forecast new infections, with appropriate time lags.Interpretation: ConvLSTM achieved good performances in forecasting new SARS-CoV-2 infections and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. The spatio-temporal representation allows borrowing strength from data neighboring to forecast at the level of the square cell (12 km)2, getting accurate predictions also at the county level, which is paramount to help optimise the real-time allocation of health care resources during an epidemic emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to measure the positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of operational case definitions of 13 syndromes in a surveillance system based on the Emergency online database of the Lazio region. The PPVs were calculated using electronic emergency department (ED) medical records and subsequent hospitalizations to ascertain the cases. Sensitivity was calculated using a modified capture-recapture method. The number of cases that fulfilled the case definition criteria in the 2004 database ranged from 27 320 for gastroenteritis to three for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. The PPVs ranged from 99·3 to 20; sepsis, meningitis-like and coma were below 50%. The estimated sensitivity ranged from 90% for coma to 22% for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. Syndromes such as gastroenteritis, where the signs, symptoms, and exposure history provide immediate diagnostic implications fit this surveillance system better than others such as haemorrhagic diarrhoea, where symptoms are not evident and a more precise diagnosis is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the adequacy of a routine screening to identify cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse (CIN2+) in women over 50 years of age, a retrospective cohort was set in six Italian organised population-based screening programmes. In all, 287 330 women (1 714 550 person-years of observation, 1110 cases) screened at age 25-64, with at least two cytological screening tests, the first negative, were followed from their first negative smear until a biopsy proven CIN2+ lesion or their last negative smear. For women aged 25-49 and 50-64 years, crude and age-standardised detection rate (DR), cumulative risk (CR), adjusted hazard risk for number of previous negative screens, probability of false-positive CIN2+ after two or more smear tests were calculated. Detection rate is significantly lower over 50 years of age. Multivariable analysis shows a significant protective effect from four screening episodes (DR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.51-0.97); the effect of age >or=50 is 0.29 (95% CI: 0.24-0.35). The CR of CIN2+ is at least eightfold higher in women <50 (CR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.88-2.23) after one previous negative test than in women >or=50 years with four screens (CR=0.23, 95% CI: 0.00-0.46). Over 50 years of age, after four tests at least three false-positive cases are diagnosed for every true positive. Benefits arising from cytological screening is uncertain in well-screened older women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is more sensitive but less specific than cytological analysis. Loss in specificity is most relevant in women younger than 35 years because of increased HPV prevalence. We aimed to compare conventional screening with an experimental strategy in women aged 25-34 years, and investigate the effect of different criteria of referral to define the best methods of HPV screening. METHODS: Women were randomly assigned to the conventional procedure (standard cytology, with referral to colposcopy if cytology showed atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or more [ASCUS+]) or an experimental procedure (liquid-based cytology and testing for high-risk HPV types, with referral to colposcopy with ASCUS+ cytology). Women positive for HPV (cutoff >/=1 pg/mL) but with normal cytology were retested after 1 year. The main endpoint was the presence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia at grade 2 or more (CIN2+) in reviewed histology. The main analysis was by intention to screen. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN81678807. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 5808 women aged 25-34 years to the conventional group and 6002 to the experimental group. The experimental procedure was significantly more sensitive than the conventional procedure (55 vs 33 CIN2+ lesions detected; relative sensitivity 1.61 [95% CI 1.05-2.48]), but had a lower positive predictive value (PPV; relative PPV 0.55 [0.37-0.82]). HPV testing (>/=1 pg/mL) with cytology triage was also more sensitive than conventional cytology (relative sensitivity 1.58 [1.03-2.44], relative PPV 0.78 [0.52-1.16]). Relative PPV could be improved, with minimum loss in sensitivity, by use of a 2 pg/mL cutoff for HPV testing. Compared with conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology had a relative sensitivity of 1.32 (0.84-2.06), relative PPV 0.58 [0.38-0.89]). INTERPRETATION: HPV testing alone with cytology triage could be a feasible alternative to conventional cytology for screening women younger than 35 years. Follow-up will provide data on possible overdiagnosis and on the feasibility of extended intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Aims We aim to monitor and improve the quality of the heart failure (HF) integrated assistance model defined by national and regional guidelines and implemented in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy. Specific aims of the audit were to estimate the prevalence of HF, describe the characteristics of patients with HF and the rate of patients enrolled in the integrated care treated in primary care, and identify socioeconomic and geographic determinants of the 4‐year survival of these patients. Methods and results Retrospective analysis of a cohort of prevalent cases of HF, diagnosed before 31 December 2015 in Reggio Emilia, Italy, alive on 1 January 2016, and residing at the time of diagnosis on the provincial territory. Age and sex‐adjusted prevalence of HF by area of residence were calculated according to the standard European population 2013. Patients were followed until death or 31 December 2019, whatever came first. The outcome measure of the study was four‐year case fatality. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, and duration of disease were used to determine the association between socio‐geographic factors and death. The 4‐year case‐fatality rate was 36.7%, and it was the highest in the mountains (50.8%) compared with hills (34.6%), lowland (35.4%) and city (37.7%). The prevalence of HF was the lowest in the mountain [149.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 112.1–187.7] and the highest in the lowland (340.8, 95% CI 308.7–372.9) and city (308, 95% CI 276.0–321.2). Patients living in the mountains had a lower deprivation index, and fewer hospitalizations prior to official diagnosis, although these characteristics were not statistically significant determinants of HF death in multivariate analysis. Behavioural (smoking and obesity) and socio‐geographic characteristics (educational level, deprivation index and area of residence) were not significantly associated with mortality in both univariable and multivariable analysis; however, patients who live in mountains (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% CI 0.73–1.66) or hills (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.90–1.37) had a slightly higher risk of death than those living in the city. Only 197 (12.1%) of patients in the cohort were enrolled in the integrated care pathway over the course of 4 years. Conclusions Although clinical determinants outweigh the geographic and behavioural disparities in the survival of patients with CHF treated in primary care, effective prevention strategies are needed to address environmental and socio‐geographic inequalities in access to primary care and to hasten equitable linkage to integrated care.

Abstract Background Despite being at higher risk of severe disease and pregnancy complications, evidence on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is still limited. The aim of the study is to compare the likelihood of undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test and testing positive for COVID-19 in pregnancy and puerperium with that of the general female population of reproductive age. Methods This is a retrospective population-based cohort study including 117,606 women of reproductive age (March 2020-September 2021) with 6608 (5.6%) women having ≥ 1 pregnancy. Women were linked to the pregnancy registry to be classified as “non-pregnant”, “pregnant”, and “puerperium”; then, according to the national case-based integrated COVID-19 surveillance system, all women undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test during the study period were identified. The Incidence Rate Ratio was calculated to compare the likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 in pregnant, puerperium and non-pregnant women among all women included. The likelihood of having a COVID-19 diagnosis was calculated using two comparators (not-pregnant women and the person-time before/after pregnancy) by means of Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age and with the cluster option to control standard error calculation in repeated pregnancies. Only first infection and swabs before the first one positive were included. Results The probability of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 was 4.9 (95% CI: 4.8–5.1) and 3.6 times higher (95%CI: 3.4–3.9) in pregnancy (including spontaneous miscarriages) and in the puerperium, respectively. The Hazard Ratio (HR) of covid-19 diagnosis during pregnancy vs. non-pregnancy was 1.17 (95% CI 1.03–1.33) with similar results when comparing the risk during pregnancy with that of the same women outside pregnancy (puerperium excluded), with an HR of 1.13 (95% CI 0.96–1.33); the excess decreased when excluding the test performed at admission for delivery (HR 1.08 (95%CI 0.90–1.30). In the puerperium, the HR was 0.62 (95% CI 0.41–0.92) comparing women with ≥ 1childbirth with all other women and excluding the first two weeks of puerperium. Conclusions Women during pregnancy showed a small increase in the risk of infection, compatible with a higher likelihood of being tested. A lower probability of infection during the puerperium was observed during the entire pandemic period, suggesting likely protective behaviors which were effective in reducing their probability of infection.

Introduction Despite strong evidence for the efficacy of low-radiation dose CT (LDCT) in reducing lung cancer (LC) mortality, implementing LC screening (LCS) programmes remains a challenge. We aim to systematically review the evidence on the strategies used to recruit the adult population at risk of LC to LDCT within LCS programmes and to estimate the effectiveness of interventions identified, used to reach the potentially eligible population, increase participation and informed choice, and ensure equitable access.Methods and analysis This sequential systematic literature review will consist of three steps: (1) a scoping review of existing strategies and organisational models for LCS; (2) selecting papers reporting relevant outcomes (test coverage, screening participation and informed choice) and comparing results among different models; (3) a systematic review of interventions implemented to increase participation in LCS programmes. Each step will follow the methodological guidelines provided by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Data sources include electronic databases such as Medline (PubMed version), Embase, CINAHL (Ebsco version), Scopus and Cochrane CENTRAL. The search will be limited to studies published from January 2000 to March 2023 in English, Italian, French, Spanish, Serbian and Croatian language. Findings will be synthesised quantitatively and qualitatively as appropriate. Risk of bias assessment will be only applied to studies selected in the second and third steps. The quality of evidence will be summarised for each outcome using the Grading Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology.Ethics and dissemination Given that this is a review of existing literature, ethics approval is not required. The results will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented at relevant conferences. The findings of this review will help guide health authorities in organising LCS programmes and developing recommendations, policies, and actions at national and regional levels.PROSPERO registration number CRD42023408357.

This study aimed to evaluate smoking cessation (SC) motivation and the acceptability of a lung cancer screening (LCS) program with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) among people who attend SC programs. A multicenter survey was conducted in the period January-December 2021 involving 197 people who attended group or individual SC courses in Reggio Emilia and Tuscany. Questionnaires, information sheets, and decision aids about the potential benefits and harms of LCS with LDCT were distributed at different time points during the course. The wish to protect own health (66%) was the most frequent reason given for quitting smoking, followed by cigarette dependence (40.6%) and current health problems (30.5%). Half of the participants (56%) considered periodic health checks including LDCT, as an advantageous activity. The great majority of participants were in favor of LCS (92%), with only 8% being indifferent, and no one was against these programs. Interestingly, those with sufficiently high smoking-related LC risk to be eligible for LCS and those attending the individual course were less in favor of LCS but also less concerned about the possible harms associated with LCS. The type of counseling was a significant predictor for both LCS acceptability and perceived harm of LCS. The favorable perception of LCS in people attending SC courses, despite the considerable preoccupation with potential harms, is an important finding of this study. Introducing a discussion on the benefits and harms of LCS in SC programs may prepare persons who smoke to make informed decisions on utilizing LCS.

Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5–54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23–0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6–34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14–0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%.