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Hoe staan de negen gemeenten in het hart van het aardbevingsgebied in Noord-Groningen er voor? De Economic Board Groningen (EBG) liet economen van Hanzehogeschool Groningen en de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen er onderzoek naar doen. ​De Economic Board Groningen wil weten welke effecten het programma van EBG heeft op de economie van de negen gemeenten in het aardbevingsgebied. Om dat te kunnen vaststellen hebben economen van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen en de Hanzehogeschool Groningen in opdracht van de Economic Board de huidige situatie in de negen Noord-Groninger gemeenten gemeten.

The economic recession in Europe, triggered by the financial crisis of 2008–2009, has rekindled the debate over whether Europe constitutes a viable single currency area. A key issue concerns the relationship between regional economic cyclicity and monetary union: in the absence of a common automatic fiscal stabilization mechanism and with limited geographical mobility of factors, the greater the asymmetry of shocks across the regions making up a currency area, the more that area departs from an optimal single currency space as far as monetary policy is concerned. Our aim in this article is to investigate whether the regions in the Eurozone have become more or less similar in their vulnerability and resilience to economic shocks since the monetary union. Using predictions based on a spatial panel model with random effects, an endogenous spatial lag and spatially autoregressive errors, we find that a common contractionary shock across the Eurozone has its biggest impact on the most geographically isolated regions, which are precisely those peripheral regions in Euroland that are suffering the most acute sovereign debt crisis, and which are among the lowest productivity regions of the European Union. The implications of these results for the debate over European monetary and fiscal integration are discussed.

The research on the location choice for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is traditionally restricted to a choice between countries. The within-country location choice is less prominent in the literature. If within-country location decisions are considered it is mostly limited to Greenfield investments. The vast majority of FDI, however, takes place in the form of cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As), and for this form of FDI (empirical) research on location choice within countries has been neglected. In this paper we analyze the within country location-target selection of M&As in the USA. Extending Guadalupe (2012), by introducing location choice, and applying the consequences of super-modularity of our model we analyze the within country location choice of (cross-border) M&As. Using a detailed firm level data set for all manufacturing sector M&As across the USA for the period 1985-2012, we compare location choices of cross-border M&As to that of national M&As. We find that: cross-border M&As are more spatially concentrated than national M&As, that cross-border M&As sort into larger agglomerations across the USA than national M&As, and that for both forms of M&As location specific market access in the USA as well as access to the rest of the world (through transport hubs) are key drivers for target selection.

The Netherlands is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. It also has the best flood defenses in the world that are built to make floods an extremely rare event. This paper uses the unique Dutch setting to provide evidence on the price and perception of rare environmental disasters. In particular, it allows us to precisely identify whether houses in areas that would flood, in case the Dutch flood defenses fail, cost less than otherwise equal homes that do not run any risk. We do this using a border-discontinuity design that heavily relies on the (spatial) detail of our unique dataset covering every housing transaction over the period 1999-2011. Despite €1.1 billion publicly spent on flood protection each year, we find a 1% flood risk price discount on houses in flood prone areas. The median household living in a flood prone area would be willing to pay an additional €69 per year to be fully insured against flood risk. Our estimate implies that people’s perceived flood risk is substantially higher than the official protection levels at which the government claims to uphold the country’s flood defenses.

Applying the methodology developed by Duranton and Overman (2005, 2008), we analyze localization and dispersion of firms in China. Using a unique and detailed dataset on manufacturing firms in China, we are able to follow the changes in location patterns of firms between 2002 and 2008. Our analysis shows that firms in China are more localized than in the UK or Japan. Localization is comparable to that in the US, and takes place at relative small scales that are consistent with the size of Chinese cities. Localization increases rapidly, even in the relative short period between 2002 and 2008, especially new entrants localize. Private firms, firms from Hong-Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreign firms are more localized than state-owned firms. Our findings are consistent with the notion that China is increasingly liberalizing its economy, enabling (profit seeking) manufacturing firms to benefit from agglomeration economies.

Using a rich data set on the EU regions, we analyze the relevance of two possible determinants of a region’s resilience to shocks, the degree of urbanization and specialization. We take the Great Recession, the economic and financial crisis that started in 2008, as our shock and then analyze how the NUTS II EU regions differ in their resilience to the crisis in terms of unemployment and real GDP per capita. In prior research it has been well established that (EU) regions differ in their resilience to shocks but it typically remains unclear as to why regions differ in this respect. For the 2008- 2012 period, we find that the degree and nature of regional urbanization and specialization are important drivers of the resilience of EU regions. More in particular, we find that that EU regions with a relatively large share of its population in commuting areas in combination with a specialization in medium high tech industries are relatively resilient, that is were less affected by the crisis, a result that suggests a relationship with international trade.

This paper investigates the impact of the recent global recession on European countries and regions. We first present several stylized facts as to the heterogeneous impact of the global recession on individual European countries and regions. We then offer an investigation of three main classes of explanations for spatial heterogeneity in the severity of the crisis. The first is the extent to which countries are integrated in the global economy via financial and trade linkages. A second class of potential explanations is found in differences in the institutional framework of countries. A third possible cause why some countries and notably also regions are more affected than others is differences in their sectoral composition. We show that especially variation in the sectoral composition contributes to the variation in the effects of the current crisis, both at the country level and at the detailed regional level across the EU.

In this paper we have combined concepts from the field of urban economics with views from the area of geographic economics (the New Economic Geography). This approach enabled us to depict both the significance of the characteristics of the city itself and that of its location. Cities which combine a favourable location in terms of distance to work with a variety of urban amenities appear to be the most attractive locations for people to live. These are relatively safe cities, offering a variety of history and culture events, as well as good restaurants. In addition, successful cities are places where people can optimize their career prospects, not necessarily - as often assumed - as a result of business districts in these cities, but access to jobs from these cities.

China’s Hukou system poses severe restrictions on labor mobility. This paper assesses the consequences of relaxing these restrictions for China’s internal economic geography. We base our analysis on a new economic geography model. First, we obtain estimates of the important model parameters on the basis of information on 264 of China’s prefecture cities over the period 1999-2005. Second, and by using our estimation results as input, we simulate various long-run scenarios of China’s internal economic geography that differ in their degree of interregional labor mobility. We find that increased labor mobility will lead to more pronounced core-periphery outcomes. Interestingly, these agglomerations are not necessarily along the coastal regions. Given the increased importance of China’s internal market, firms agglomerate in the populous heartland of China. China’s internal demand will be the most important determinant of its future economic geography.

The 2008 Nobel prize for economics was awarded to Paul Krugman for three papers -Krugman (1979, 1980, 1991). In this paper we illustrate that, indeed, these three papers are closely connected. We present - a summary of - the papers using a unified framework. Central in the discussion is the so-called home market effect that was already alluded to in Krugman (1979). We evaluate his work and conclude that these three papers changed and improved the way economists think about trade and geography.

The physical or absolute geography of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often blamed for its poor economic performance. A country's location however not only determines its absolute geography, it also pins down its relative position on the globe vis-à-vis other countries. This paper assesses the importance of relative geography, and access to foreign markets in particular, in explaining the substantial income differences between SSA countries. We base our empirical analysis on a new economic geography model. We first construct a measure of each SSA country's market access based on bilateral trade flows and then assess the relevance of market access for economic development. In doing so, we explicitly distinguish between the importance of access to other SSA markets and to the rest of world respectively. We find that market access, and notably intra-SSA market access, has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. This indicates that improving SSA market access (e.g. by investing in intra- SSA infrastructure or through increased SSA integration) will have substantial positive effects on its future economic development.

The aim of this paper is to test for the relevance of spatial linkages for Dutch (outbound) FDI. To do so, and based on recent FDI theories, we estimate a spatial lag model to assess the importance of spatial linkages for Dutch FDI to 18 host countries. As a determinant of FDI, space or geography also enters our empirical analysis through the market size and a corporate income tax variable. Our paper is among the few to date to take spatial linkages with respect to FDI into account. The Dutch case is also interesting because Dutch firms account for a large part of global FDI and related research has so far focused mainly on US FDI. After controlling for fixed effects, we find for our sample period 1984-2004 that third country effects matter, but the results are somewhat sensitive to sample and model selection. Apart from our benchmark spatial lag model, we discuss and estimate various alternative models notably by looking at European host FDI countries only, by dividing FDI into industry and services FDI and by estimating a spatial error model as well.

For reasons of analytical tractability, new economic geography (NEG) models treat geography in a very simple way: attention is either confined to a simple 2-region or to an equidistant multi-region world. As a result, the main predictions regarding the impact of e.g. diminishing trade costs are based on these simple models. When doing empirical or policy work these simplifying assumptions become problematic and it may very well be that the conclusions from the simple models do not carry over to the heterogeneous geographical setting faced by the empirical researcher or policy maker. This paper tries to fill this gap by adding more realistic geography structures to the Puga (1999) model that encompasses several benchmark NEG models. By using extensive simulations we show that many, although not all, conclusions from the simple models do carry over to our multi-region setting with more realistic geography structures. Given these results, we then simulate the impact of increased EU integration on the spatial distribution of regional economic activity for a sample of 194-NUTSII regions and find that further integration will most likely be accompanied by higher levels of agglomeration.

The evolution of city growth is usually studied for relatively short time periods. The rise and decline of cities is, however, typically a process that takes many decades or even centuries. In this paper we study the evolution of Italian cities over the period 1300-1861. The first contribution of our paper is that we use various descriptive statistics on individual city sizes and the city-size distribution as a whole to highlight the main characteristics of Italy's urban system such as the differences between northern and southern Italy. Our second, and main, contribution is that our data allow for panel estimation where city-size is regressed on various geographical, political and other determinants of city size for the period 1300-1861. We show that, although large shocks such as the plague epidemics are clearly visible in the data, the main determinants of Italy's city growth invariably are physical geography and political predominance. Also the North-South difference turns out to be important.

This paper analyses the accession to the Euro-Area by new members using a stylized new-Keynesian model. We analyze macro-economic adjustment in the pre- and post accession case and calculate welfare in both situations to obtain net benefit/loss from accession. It is shown how the effects of accession is related to the conduct of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the pre- and post accession case. The simulation examples point at the potential costs that accession might entail due its consequences on monetary and fiscal policy design. These consequences from accession in terms of macro-economic stabilization ability of monetary and fiscal policies have not always been fully acknowledged and need attention in our opinion.

Trade costs are a crucial in new economic geography (NEG) models. The unavailability of actual trade costs data requires the approximation of trade costs. Most NEG studies do not deal with the ramifications of the particular trade costs specification used. This paper shows that the specification of trade costs matters. Estimations of a NEG wage equation for a sample of 80 countries show how the relevance of the key NEG variable, market access, depends upon the trade costs specification. Our conclusion is that NEG needs to (re-)examine the sensitivity of its empirical findings to the handling of trade costs.