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153. Tropical Forests and Climate Policy

Author

Gullison, Raymond E., Frumhoff, Peter C., Canadell, Josep G., Field, Christopher B., Nepstad, Daniel C., Hayhoe, Katharine, Avissar, Roni, Curran, Lisa M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Chris D., and Nobre, Carlos

Published
2007
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156. Are terrestrial biosphere models fit for simulating the global land carbon sink?

Author

Seiler, Christian, primary, Melton, Joe R., additional, Arora, Vivek, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Goll, Daniel Sebastian, additional, Jain, Atul, additional, Joetzjer, Emilie, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Luyssaert, Sebastiaan, additional, Nabel, Julia Esther Marlene Sophia, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Yuan, Wenping, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2021
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157. Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, primary, Jones, Matthew W., additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Le Quéré, Corinne, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Jackson, Rob B., additional, Alin, Simone R., additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Bates, Nicholas R., additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chau, Thi T. T., additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Cronin, Margot, additional, Currie, Kim I., additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Djeutchouang, Laique, additional, Dou, Xinyu, additional, Evans, Wiley, additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Feng, Liang, additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Gilfillan, Dennis, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Gregor, Luke, additional, Gruber, Nicolas, additional, Gürses, Özgür, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Hurtt, George C., additional, Iida, Yosuke, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Jones, Steve D., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kennedy, Daniel, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Knauer, Jürgen, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Körtzinger, Arne, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lauvset, Siv K., additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Liu, Junjie, additional, Marland, Gregg, additional, McGuire, Patrick C., additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Niwa, Yosuke, additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Rosan, Thais M., additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Schwingshackl, Clemens, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Sutton, Adrienne J., additional, Sweeney, Colm, additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, Tubiello, Francesco, additional, van der Werf, Guido, additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Wada, Chisato, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Watson, Andrew, additional, Willis, David, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Yuan, Wenping, additional, Yue, Chao, additional, Yue, Xu, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Zeng, Jiye, additional

Published
2021
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160. A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations

Author

Wang, Xuhui, Piao, Shilong, Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Myneni, Ranga B., Cox, Peter, and Heimann, Martin

Subjects
Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Environmental aspects, Carbon sinks -- Environmental aspects, Droughts -- Forecasts and trends -- China, Global temperature changes -- Forecasts and trends, Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Distribution -- Environmental aspects, Market trend/market analysis, Company distribution practices, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

The long-term record of atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate shows that the sensitivity of this growth rate to tropical temperature variability has increased by a factor of about two in the past five decades, and was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions, implying that moisture regulates this sensitivity. Sensitivity of tropical carbon flux to temperature Global warming and increasing drought conditions are thought likely to reduce the capacity of the tropical land carbon sink during this century, causing a positive climate feedback, but limited data are available to test the Earth system models making such predictions. This study makes use of long-term records of atmospheric CO.sub.2 growth rate and from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to demonstrate that the sensitivity of the tropical terrestrial carbon cycle to temperature fluctuations has increased by a factor of two during the past 50 years -- most probably in response to changes in humidity. The analysis also suggests that current models do not capture the observed increase in sensitivity and that a better understanding of the factors driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming is needed. Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback.sup.1,2. But available data.sup.3,4,5 are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence.sup.6,7,8 demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas.sup.6,9,10. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change.sup.10. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 [plus or minus] 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak.sup.9. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming., Author(s): Xuhui Wang [sup.1] , Shilong Piao [sup.1] [sup.2] , Philippe Ciais [sup.1] [sup.3] , Pierre Friedlingstein [sup.4] , Ranga B. Myneni [sup.5] , Peter Cox [sup.4] , Martin Heimann [...]

Published
2014
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161. The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy.

Author

Jenkins, Stuart, Sanderson, Ben, Peters, Glen, Frölicher, Thomas L., Friedlingstein, Pierre, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
CARBON emissions, CARBON sequestration, GLOBAL warming, CARBON cycle, ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide, THERMOCYCLING, GREENHOUSE gases, ATMOSPHERE
Abstract

How confident are we that CO2 emissions must reach net zero or below to halt CO2‐induced warming? The IPCC's sixth assessment report concluded that "limiting human‐induced global warming to a specific level requires ... reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions." This is much stronger language than the special report on the global warming of 1.5°C, which concluded that reaching net zero CO2 emissions would be sufficient. Here we show that "approximately net zero" is better supported than "at least net zero." We estimate the rate of adjustment to zero emissions (RAZE) parameter (−0.24 to +0.17%/yr), defined as the fractional change in CO2‐induced warming after CO2 emissions cease. The RAZE determines the CO2 emissions compatible with halting warming over multiple decades: in 1.5°C‐consistent scenarios, CO2 emissions consistent with halting anthropogenic warming are +2.2 GtCO2/yr (5–95th percentile range spans −7.3 to +6.2 GtCO2/yr), similar to the expected emissions from unmodelled Earth system feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: How confident are we that CO2 emissions will need to reach net zero (where human‐made CO2 emissions into the atmosphere are approximately balanced with CO2 removals through carbon capture and storage, nature‐based solutions, etc.) or below to halt human‐induced warming? Here we show that "approximately net zero" is the best‐estimate requirement to stabilize warming. To do this we show that the behavior of the climate system's temperature response following net zero can be defined using a new parameter (the rate of adjustment to zero emissions, RAZE), which spans −0.24 to +0.17%/yr. The RAZE determines the ongoing rate of CO2 emissions or removals compatible with halting warming. In scenarios which reach approximately 1.5°C warming, CO2 emissions consistent with halting human‐made warming over multi‐decadal timescales span −7.3 to +6.2 GtCO2/yr with a best‐estimate of +2.2 GtCO2/yr. Planning for net negative global CO2 emissions remains important, given the chance of global temperatures overshooting 1.5°C, along with research to better understand the emissions consistent with warming stabilization. Key Points: The conditions for stabilization of global temperature at any level depend on the multi‐century carbon and thermal cycle responseThis is described by the rate of adjustment to zero emissions parameter, spanning −0.24 to +0.17%/yr (−0.036 to 0.025°C/decade at 1.5°C)In 1.5°C scenarios, CO2 emissions consistent with halting anthropogenic warming over multi‐decadal timescales span −7.3 to +6.2 GtCO2/yr [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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164. Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2

Author

Winkler, Alexander J, primary, Menyni, Ranga, additional, Hannart, Alexis, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Nabel, Julia Esther Marlene Sophia, additional, Goll, Daniel Sebastian, additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Almut, Arneth, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Atul, Jain, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Brovkin, Victor, additional

Published
2021
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165. Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>

Author

Winkler, Alexander J., primary, Myneni, Ranga B., additional, Hannart, Alexis, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Brovkin, Victor, additional

Published
2021
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168. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Author

Tebaldi, Claudia, Debeire, Kevin, Eyring, Veronika, Fischer, Erich, Fyfe, John, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Knutti, Reto, Lowe, Jason, O'Neill, Brian, Sanderson, Benjamin, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Riahi, Keywan, Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee, Tokarska, Katarzyna, Hurtt, George, Kriegler, Elmar, Meehl, Gerald, Moss, Richard, Bauer, Susanne, Boucher, Olivier, Brovkin, Victor, Yhb, Yu, Dix, Martin, Gualdi, Silvio, Guo, Huan, John, Jasmin, Kharin, Slava, Kim, Young Ho, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi, Ma, Libin, Olivié, Dirk, Panickal, Swapna, Qiao, Fangli, Rong, Xinyao, Rosenbloom, Nan, Schupfner, Martin, Séférian, Roland, Sellar, Alistair, Semmler, Tido, Shi, Xiaoying, Song, Zhenya, Steger, Christian, Stouffer, Ronald, Swart, Neil, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Tang, Qi, Tatebe, Hiroaki, Voldoire, Aurore, Volodin, Evgeny, Environmental Sciences, and Sub Dynamics Meteorology

Subjects
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Abstract

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: Mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081-2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5-C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %-95% envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5-C of warming compared to the 1850-1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2-C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5-C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

Published
2021

169. European land CO₂ sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic pattern coupling

Author

Batos, Ana, Janssens, Ivan, Gouveia, Célia M., Trigo, Ricardo M., Ciais, Philippe, Chevallier, Frédéric, Peñuelas, Josep, Rödenbeck, Christian, Piao, Shilong, Friedlingstein, Pierre, and Running, Steven W.

Subjects
Earth sciences, Climate science, Atmospheric science
Abstract

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO-EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.

Published
2021

170. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, Williamson, Phil, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.

Published
2021

171. Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO₂ and temperature

Author

Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Sardans i Galobart, Jordi, Chevallier, Frédéric, Ciais, Philippe, Obersteiner, Michael, Janssens, Ivan, Vicca, Sara, Canadell, Josep G., Bastos, Ana, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Piao, Shilong, and Peñuelas, Josep

Subjects
fungi
Abstract

Elevated CO₂ concentrations increase photosynthesis and, potentially, net ecosystem production (NEP), meaning a greater CO₂ uptake. Climate, nutrients and ecosystem structure, however, influence the effect of increasing CO₂. Here we analysed global NEP from MACC-II and Jena CarboScope atmospheric inversions and ten dynamic global vegetation models (TRENDY), using statistical models to attribute the trends in NEP to its potential drivers: CO2, climatic variables and land-use change. We found that an increased CO2 was consistently associated with an increased NEP (1995-2014). Conversely, increased temperatures were negatively associated with NEP. Using the two atmospheric inversions and TRENDY, the estimated global sensitivities for CO₂ were 6.0 ± 0.1, 8.1 ± 0.3 and 3.1 ± 0.1 PgC per 100 ppm (~1 °C increase), and −0.5 ± 0.2, −0.9 ± 0.4 and −1.1 ± 0.1 PgC °C⁻¹ for temperature. These results indicate a positive CO₂ effect on terrestrial C sinks that is constrained by climate warming.

Published
2021

172. Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan

Author

Pihl, Erik, Alfredsson, Eva, Bengtsson, Magnus, Bowen, Kathryn J., Cástan Broto, Vanesa, Chou, Kuei Tien, Cleugh, Helen, Ebi, Kristie, Edwards, Clea M., Fisher, Eleanor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Godoy-Faúndez, Alex, Gupta, Mukesh, Harrington, Alexandra R., Hayes, Katie, Hayward, Bronwyn M., Hebden, Sophie R., Hickmann, Thomas, Hugelius, Gustaf, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert B., Keenan, Trevor F., Lambino, Ria A., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Malmaeus, Mikael, McDonald, Robert I., McMichael, Celia, Miller, Clark A., Muratori, Matteo, Nagabhatla, Nidhi, Nagendra, Harini, Passarello, Cristian, Penuelas, Josep, Pongratz, Julia, Rockström, Johan, Romero-Lankao, Patricia, Roy, Joyashree, Scaife, Adam A., Schlosser, Peter, Schuur, Edward, Scobie, Michelle, Sherwood, Steven C., Sioen, Giles B., Skovgaard, Jakob, Sobenes Obregon, Edgardo A., Sonntag, Sebastian, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Spijkers, Otto, Srivastava, Leena, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Global Sustainability Governance, Environmental Sciences, and Environmental Governance

Subjects
climate feedbacks, Global and Planetary Change, climate mitigation, thermokarst, urban transformations, climate anxiety, risk governance, climate governance, climate policy, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, water stress, climate models, future earth, environmental economics, climate litigation, climate impacts
Abstract

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.

Published
2021

173. On the causes of trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂

Author

Piao, Shilong, Liu, Zhuo, Wang, Yilong, Ciais, Philippe, Yao, Yitong, Peng, Shushi, Chevallier, Frédéric, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Janssens, Ivan, Peñuelas, Josep, Sitch, Stephen, and Wang, Tao

Subjects
Amplitude of atmospheric CO₂, Attribution, Detection, CO₂ fertilization effect, Land-use change, Climate change
Abstract

No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂ in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO₂ records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak-to-trough CO₂ amplitude (AMPP-T) at nine stations, and in trough-to-peak amplitude (AMPT-P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO₂ concentration (eCO₂) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMPP-T and AMPT-P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMPP-T and AMPT-P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO₂ (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO₂ are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO₂ during carbon uptake period. Air-sea CO₂ fluxes (10% for AMPP-T and 11% for AMPT-P) and the impacts of land-use change (marginally significant 3% for AMPP-T and 4% for AMPT-P) also contributed to the CO₂ measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle.

Published
2021

174. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Canadell, Josep G., Monteiro, Pedro M.S., Costa, Marcos H., Cunha, Leticia Cotrim Da, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Henson, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii A., Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Hervé, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garçon, Véronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Quéré, Corinne Le, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, Macdougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O’sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallée, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A.G., I.Seneviratne, Sonia, Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik H., Williamson, Phil, Brovkin, Victor, Feely, Richard A., Lebehot, Alice D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Aptel, Florence, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2021

175. Mapping land-use fluxes for 2001-2020 from global models to national inventories.

Author

Grassi, Giacomo, Schwingshackl, Clemens, Gasser, Thomas, Houghton, Richard A., Sitch, Stephen, Canadell, Josep G., Cescatti, Alessandro, Ciais, Philippe, Federici, Sandro, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Kurz, Werner A., Sanchez, Maria J. Sanz, Abad Viñas, Raúl, Alkama, Ramdane, Ceccherini, Guido, Etsushi Kato, Kennedy, Daniel, Knauer, Jürgen, Korosuo, Anu, and McGrath, Matthew J.

Subjects
EARTH system science, TREE growth, CARBON cycle, CLIMATE change mitigation, ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide, PHYSICAL sciences, INVENTORIES, ATMOSPHERIC sciences
Published
2022
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176. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability

Author

Cox, Peter M., Pearson, David, Booth, Ben B., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Huntingford, Chris, Jones, Chris D., and Luke, Catherine M.

Subjects
Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) -- Observations, Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects, Rain forest plants -- Chemical properties, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change (1), but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain (2). Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree [...]

Published
2013

177. A multi-data assessment of land use and land cover emissions from Brazil during 2000–2019

Author

Rosan, Thais M, primary, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, O’Sullivan, Michael, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Mercado, Lina M, additional, Aragao, Luiz E O C, additional, Heinrich, Viola, additional, Von Randow, Celso, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, and Sitch, Stephen, additional

Published
2021
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178. Greening drylands despite warming consistent with carbon dioxide fertilization effect

Author

Gonsamo, Alemu, primary, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Dorigo, Wouter, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Wiltshire, Andy, additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, and Cescatti, Alessandro, additional

Published
2021
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179. Five years of variability in the global carbon cycle: comparing an estimate from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and process-based models

Author

Chen, Zichong, primary, Huntzinger, Deborah N, additional, Liu, Junjie, additional, Piao, Shilong, additional, Wang, Xuhui, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Goll, Daniel S, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Jain, Atul K, additional, Joetzjer, Emilie, additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica L, additional, McGuire, Patrick C, additional, Melton, Joe R, additional, Nabel, Julia E M S, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Miller, Scot M, additional

Published
2021
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180. JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1)

Author

Wiltshire, Andrew J., primary, Burke, Eleanor J., additional, Chadburn, Sarah E., additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Cox, Peter M., additional, Davies-Barnard, Taraka, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Harper, Anna B., additional, Liddicoat, Spencer, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2021
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181. Climate System Scenario Tables

Author

Prather, Michael, Flato, Gregory, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Christopher, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Liao, Hong, Rasch, Philip, Boucher, Olivier, Breon, Francois-Marie, Carter, Tim, Collins, William, Dentener, Frank J, Dlugokencky, Edward J, Dufresne, Jean-Louis, Erisman, Jan Willem, Eyring, Veronika, Fiore, Arlene M, Galloway, James, Gregory, Jonathan M, Hawkins, Ed, Holmes, Chris, John, Jasmin, Johns, Tim, Lo, Fiona, Mahowald, Natalie, Meinshausen, Malte, Morice, Colin, Naik, Vaishali, Shindell, Drew, Smith, Steven J, Stevenson, David, Thorne, Peter W, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Voulgarakis, Apostolos, Wild, Oliver, Wuebbles, Donald, and Young, Paul

Published
2014

182. Summary for Policymakers

Author

Alexander, Lisa V, Allen, Simon K, Bindoff, Nathaniel L, Breon, Francois-Marie, Church, John A, Cubasch, Ulrich, Emori, Seita, Forster, Piers, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gillett, Nathan, Gregory, Jonathan M, Hartmann, Dennis L, Jansen, Eystein, Kirtman, Ben, Knutti, Reto, Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar, Lemke, Peter, Marotzke, Jochem, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Meehl, Gerald A, Mokhov, Igor I, Piao, Shilong, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, Qin, Dahe, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Randall, David, Rhein, Monika, Rojas, Maisa, Sabine, Christopher, Shindell, Drew, Stocker, Thomas F, Talley, Lynne D, Vaughan, David G, Xie, Shang-Ping, Allen, Myles R, Boucher, Olivier, Chambers, Don, Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Ciais, Philippe, Clark, Peter U, Collins, Matthew, Comiso, Josefino C, de Menezes, Viviane Vasconcellos, Feely, Richard A, Fichefet, Thierry, Fiore, Arlene M, Flato, Gregory, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hezel, Paul J, Johnson, Gregory C, Kaser, Georg, Kattsov, Vladimir, Kennedy, John, Tank, Albert MG Klein, Le Quere, Corinne, Myhre, Gunnar, Osborn, Timothy, Payne, Antony J, Perlwitz, Judith, Power, Scott, Prather, Michael, Rintoul, Stephen R, Rogelj, Joeri, Rusticucci, Matilde, Schulz, Michael, Sedlacek, Jan, Stott, Peter A, Sutton, Rowan, Thorne, Peter W, and Wuebbles, Donald

Published
2014

184. Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Author

Singarayer, Joy S., Valdes, Paul J., Friedlingstein, Pierre, and Beerling, Sarah Nelson David J.

Subjects
Atmospheric chemistry -- Research -- Environmental aspects -- Chemical properties, Methane -- Environmental aspects -- Chemical properties -- Research, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' (1) increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records (2). Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation (1,3) or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical (4) or boreal sources (5,6). Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era., Atmospheric methane (C[H.sub.4]) is a strong greenhouse gas influenced by various natural (for example, wetlands, biomass burning) and anthropogenic (for example, rice agriculture, enhanced biomass burning, landfill) sources (7). The [...]

Published
2011
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185. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

Author

Ciais, Philippe, Yao, Huang, Zehao, Shen, Shushi, Peng, Junsheng, Li, Liping, Zhou, Hongyan, Liu, Yuecun, Ma, Yihui, Ding, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Chunzhen, Liu, Kun, Tan, Yongqiang, Yu, Tianyi, Zhang, and Jingyun, Fang

Subjects
China -- Environmental policy -- Agricultural policy, Aquatic resources -- Usage -- Protection and preservation -- Economic aspects -- China, Agricultural industry -- Industry forecasts -- Environmental aspects, Climatic changes -- Influence -- Economic aspects, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation--and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents., Climate change and its impacts on water resources and crop production is a major force with which China and the rest of the world will have to cope in the [...]

Published
2010
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186. Differences in land-based mitigation estimates reconciled by separating natural and land-use CO2fluxes at the country level

Author

Schwingshackl, Clemens, Obermeier, Wolfgang A., Bultan, Selma, Grassi, Giacomo, Canadell, Josep G., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gasser, Thomas, Houghton, Richard A., Kurz, Werner A., Sitch, Stephen, and Pongratz, Julia

Abstract

Anthropogenic and natural CO2fluxes on land constitute substantial CO2emissions and removals but are usually not well distinguished in national greenhouse gas reporting. Instead, countries frequently combine natural and indirect human-induced CO2fluxes on managed land in their reports, which diminishes their usefulness for designing policies consistent with climate mitigation targets. Here, we separate natural and land-use-related CO2fluxes from national reports in eight countries using global models to improve the assessment of attribution of terrestrial CO2fluxes to direct anthropogenic activities. In most investigated countries, the gap between model-based and report-based CO2flux estimates is reduced if natural and indirect human-induced CO2fluxes on managed land are considered. Further examinations show that remaining differences are linked to country-specific discrepancies between model-based and report-based estimates. Separating natural and land-use-related CO2fluxes at national scales supports a fair burden sharing of climate mitigation across countries and facilitates the assessment of land-based mitigation ambitions.

Published
2022
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190. Assessment of land use and land cover datasets for Brazil and impact on C emissions

Author

Rosan, Thais M., primary, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Mercado, Lina M., additional, Aragao, Luiz E. O. C., additional, Heinrich, Viola, additional, Von Randow, Celso, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, and Sitch, Stephen, additional

Published
2021
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191. Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, primary, Peters, Glen P., additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Davis, Steven J., additional, Jackson, Robert B., additional, and Jones, Matthew W., additional

Published
2021
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192. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Author

Tebaldi, Claudia, primary, Debeire, Kevin, additional, Eyring, Veronika, additional, Fischer, Erich, additional, Fyfe, John, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Knutti, Reto, additional, Lowe, Jason, additional, O'Neill, Brian, additional, Sanderson, Benjamin, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, Riahi, Keywan, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, Nicholls, Zebedee, additional, Tokarska, Katarzyna B., additional, Hurtt, George, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, additional, Meehl, Gerald, additional, Moss, Richard, additional, Bauer, Susanne E., additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Brovkin, Victor, additional, Byun, Young-Hwa, additional, Dix, Martin, additional, Gualdi, Silvio, additional, Guo, Huan, additional, John, Jasmin G., additional, Kharin, Slava, additional, Kim, YoungHo, additional, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi, additional, Ma, Libin, additional, Olivié, Dirk, additional, Panickal, Swapna, additional, Qiao, Fangli, additional, Rong, Xinyao, additional, Rosenbloom, Nan, additional, Schupfner, Martin, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Sellar, Alistair, additional, Semmler, Tido, additional, Shi, Xiaoying, additional, Song, Zhenya, additional, Steger, Christian, additional, Stouffer, Ronald, additional, Swart, Neil, additional, Tachiiri, Kaoru, additional, Tang, Qi, additional, Tatebe, Hiroaki, additional, Voldoire, Aurore, additional, Volodin, Evgeny, additional, Wyser, Klaus, additional, Xin, Xiaoge, additional, Yang, Shuting, additional, Yu, Yongqiang, additional, and Ziehn, Tilo, additional

Published
2021
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193. Peak growing season patterns and climate extremes-driven responses of gross primary production estimated by satellite and process based models over North America

Author

He, Wei, primary, Ju, Weimin, additional, Jiang, Fei, additional, Parazoo, Nicholas, additional, Gentine, Pierre, additional, Wu, Xiaocui, additional, Zhang, Chunhua, additional, Zhu, Jiawen, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, and Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional

Published
2021
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194. Slow-down of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2

Author

Winkler, Alexander J., primary, Myneni, Ranga B., additional, Hannart, Alexis, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Brovkin, Victor, additional

Published
2021
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195. Supplementary material to "Slow-down of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2"

Author

Winkler, Alexander J., primary, Myneni, Ranga B., additional, Hannart, Alexis, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Brovkin, Victor, additional

Published
2021
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196. Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan

Author

Pihl, Erik, primary, Alfredsson, Eva, additional, Bengtsson, Magnus, additional, Bowen, Kathryn J., additional, Cástan Broto, Vanesa, additional, Chou, Kuei Tien, additional, Cleugh, Helen, additional, Ebi, Kristie, additional, Edwards, Clea M., additional, Fisher, Eleanor, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Godoy-Faúndez, Alex, additional, Gupta, Mukesh, additional, Harrington, Alexandra R., additional, Hayes, Katie, additional, Hayward, Bronwyn M., additional, Hebden, Sophie R., additional, Hickmann, Thomas, additional, Hugelius, Gustaf, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jackson, Robert B., additional, Keenan, Trevor F., additional, Lambino, Ria A., additional, Leuzinger, Sebastian, additional, Malmaeus, Mikael, additional, McDonald, Robert I., additional, McMichael, Celia, additional, Miller, Clark A., additional, Muratori, Matteo, additional, Nagabhatla, Nidhi, additional, Nagendra, Harini, additional, Passarello, Cristian, additional, Penuelas, Josep, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Rockström, Johan, additional, Romero-Lankao, Patricia, additional, Roy, Joyashree, additional, Scaife, Adam A., additional, Schlosser, Peter, additional, Schuur, Edward, additional, Scobie, Michelle, additional, Sherwood, Steven C., additional, Sioen, Giles B., additional, Skovgaard, Jakob, additional, Sobenes Obregon, Edgardo A., additional, Sonntag, Sebastian, additional, Spangenberg, Joachim H., additional, Spijkers, Otto, additional, Srivastava, Leena, additional, Stammer, Detlef B., additional, Torres, Pedro H. C., additional, Turetsky, Merritt R., additional, Ukkola, Anna M., additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Voigt, Christina, additional, Wannous, Chadia, additional, and Zelinka, Mark D., additional

Published
2021
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198. Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their Drivers

Author

Lauerwald, Ronny, Bastos, Ana, McGrath, Matthew J., Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, Ritter, François, Andrew, Robbie M., Berchet, Antoine, Broquet, Grégoire, Brunner, Dominik, Chevallier, Frédéric, Cescatti, Alessandro, Filipek, Sara, Fortems‐Cheiney, Audrey, Forzieri, Giovanni, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuchs, Richard, Gerbig, Christoph, Houweling, Sander, Ke, Piyu, Lerink, Bas J. W., Li, Wanjing, Li, Wei, Li, Xiaojun, Luijkx, Ingrid, Monteil, Guillaume, Munassar, Saqr, Nabuurs, Gert‐Jan, Patra, Prabir K., Peylin, Philippe, Pongratz, Julia, Regnier, Pierre, Saunois, Marielle, Schelhaas, Mart‐Jan, Scholze, Marko, Sitch, Stephen, Thompson, Rona L., Tian, Hanqin, Tsuruta, Aki, Wilson, Chris, Wigneron, Jean‐Pierre, Yao, Yitong, Zaehle, Sönke, and Ciais, Philippe

Abstract

In the framework of the RECCAP2 initiative, we present the greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon (C) budget of Europe. For the decade of the 2010s, we present a bottom‐up (BU) estimate of GHG net‐emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1(using a global warming potential on a 100 years horizon), which are largely dominated by fossil fuel emissions. In this decade, terrestrial ecosystems acted as a net GHG sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by a CO2sink that was partially counterbalanced by net emissions of CH4and N2O. For CH4and N2O, we find good agreement between BU and top‐down (TD) estimates from atmospheric inversions. However, our BU land CO2sink is significantly higher than the TD estimates. We further show that decadal averages of GHG net‐emissions have declined by 1.2 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1since the 1990s, mainly due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. In addition, based on both data driven BU and TD estimates, we also find that the land CO2sink has weakened over the past two decades. A large part of the European CO2and C sinks is located in Northern Europe. At the same time, we find a decreasing trend in sink strength in Scandinavia, which can be attributed to an increase in forest management intensity. These are partly offset by increasing CO2sinks in parts of Eastern Europe and Northern Spain, attributed in part to land use change. Extensive regions of high CH4and N2O emissions are mainly attributed to agricultural activities and are found in Belgium, the Netherlands and the southern UK. We further analyzed interannual variability in the GHG budgets. The drought year of 2003 shows the highest net‐emissions of CO2and of all GHGs combined. We have synthesized the European budgets of carbon and the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. This synthesis includes estimates of direct emissions from fossil fuel burning, industrial production, waste management and agriculture, as well as of sources and sinks in the terrestrial biosphere. Summing up the sources and sinks of the three GHGs, we estimate for the decade of the 2010s an average annual net‐emission of 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. These net‐emissions are dominated by carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions (4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide). In contrast, the terrestrial biosphere acts as a net sink of carbon dioxide, the effect of which is only partly counterbalanced by net emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The net‐effect of the terrestrial biosphere's GHG budget is a sink of 0.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year. Over the last three decades, European GHG emissions have declined by 1.2 billion tons carbon dioxide equivalents per year, mainly due to reductions in fossil fuel emissions. However, the sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has diminished since the 2000s. We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sinkNet‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019 Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sink Net‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s

Published
2024
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199. Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

Author

Sitch, Stephen, O’Sullivan, Michael, Robertson, Eddy, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Albergel, Clément, Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek K., Bastos, Ana, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Bellouin, Nicolas, Canadell, Josep G., Chini, Louise, Ciais, Philippe, Falk, Stefanie, Harris, Ian, Hurtt, George, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul K., Jones, Matthew W., Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Kennedy, Daniel, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Kluzek, Erik, Knauer, Jürgen, Lawrence, Peter J., Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Pan, Naiqing, Peylin, Philippe, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Rosan, Thais M., Sun, Qing, Tian, Hanqin, Walker, Anthony P., Weber, Ulrich, Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Xu, and Zaehle, Sönke

Abstract

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land‐atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio‐temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote‐sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi‐arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions. Around one third of human‐induced CO2emissions are absorbed by land ecosystems and thus act to mitigate climate change. It is essential to understand the processes, ecosystems and regions responsible for this natural carbon sink, to inform on the efficiency of the sinks into the future. These sinks are susceptible to year‐to‐year variation in response to climate variations and extremes. At the same time deforestation and other forms of land management are changing the land surface, which overall adds significantly to the human‐induced CO2emissions. There is a need to regularly update our estimate of land carbon dynamics to aid global stock takes for the Paris agreement to avoid dangerous climate change. Here we present an international initiative that on an annual basis assesses “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) using computer models of the land carbon cycle. We quantify the land sink during the contemporary period (2012–2021), and attribute to processes, mainly the large opposing effects of CO2fertilization enhancing plant productivity and land‐use change. Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems are largely responsible for the mean and trend in the land sink, with the latter most important for its year‐to‐year variation. We quantify and attribute land carbon dynamics to underlying processes at regional scales, contributing bottom‐up estimates to RECCAP‐2Models simulate a contemporary net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr, with large opposing effects of CO2fertilization and land‐use changeDespite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions We quantify and attribute land carbon dynamics to underlying processes at regional scales, contributing bottom‐up estimates to RECCAP‐2 Models simulate a contemporary net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr, with large opposing effects of CO2fertilization and land‐use change Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions

Published
2024
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200. Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming

Author

Piao, Shilong, Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Peylin, Philippe, Reichstein, Markus, Luyssaert, Sebastiaan, Margolis, Hank, Fang, Jingyun, Barr, Alan, Chen, Anping, Grelle, Achim, Hollinger, David Y., Laurila, Tuomas, Lindroth, Anders, Richardson, Andrew D., and Vesala, Timo

Subjects
Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Measurement -- Research -- Influence, Climatic changes -- Causes of -- Research -- Measurement, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation, Influence, Research, Measurement, Causes of
Abstract

Author(s): Shilong Piao (corresponding author) [1]; Philippe Ciais (corresponding author) [1]; Pierre Friedlingstein [1]; Philippe Peylin [2]; Markus Reichstein [3]; Sebastiaan Luyssaert [4]; Hank Margolis [5]; Jingyun Fang [6]; Alan [...]

Published
2008
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