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Intensive scientific research devoted in the recent years to understand the molecular mechanisms or neurodegeneration in spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) are identifying new pathways and targets providing new insights and a better understanding of the molecular pathogenesis in these diseases. In this consensus manuscript, the authors discuss their current views on the identified molecular processes causing or modulating the neurodegenerative phenotype in spinocerebellar ataxias with the common opinion of translating the new knowledge acquired into candidate targets for therapy. The following topics are discussed: transcription dysregulation, protein aggregation, autophagy, ion channels, the role of mitochondria, RNA toxicity, modulators of neurodegeneration and current therapeutic approaches. Overall point of consensus includes the common vision of neurodegeneration in SCAs as a multifactorial, progressive and reversible process, at least in early stages. Specific points of consensus include the role of the dysregulation of protein folding, transcription, bioenergetics, calcium handling and eventual cell death with apoptotic features of neurons during SCA disease progression. Unresolved questions include how the dysregulation of these pathways triggers the onset of symptoms and mediates disease progression since this understanding may allow effective treatments of SCAs within the window of reversibility to prevent early neuronal damage. Common opinions also include the need for clinical detection of early neuronal dysfunction, for more basic research to decipher the early neurodegenerative process in SCAs in order to give rise to new concepts for treatment strategies and for the translation of the results to preclinical studies and, thereafter, in clinical practice.

In Friedreich ataxia (FRDA), several candidate substances including erythropoietin (EPO) focus on increase in the amount of frataxin and aim to counteract the consequences of frataxin deficiency. Evidence for recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO) in FRDA is based on in vitro studies using mouse neuronal cell lines, human fibroblasts, cardiomyocytes, and primary lymphocytes from FRDA patients or control subjects which showed a dose-dependent increase of frataxin after incubation with different erythropoietins. The mechanism by which EPO induces frataxin increase remains to be elucidated, but may involve post-transcriptional and/or post-translational modifications of frataxin or alterations in frataxin half-life and metabolism. In vivo data on rHuEPO's ability to increase frataxin in FRDA patients is contradictory as studies on the effect of EPO derivatives in FRDA differ in treatment regimen, sample size, and duration. Open-label studies indicate for sustained frataxin increase, decrease of oxidative stress, and clinical improvement in FRDA patients after administration of rHuEPO. Two randomized controlled studies found acceptable safety and tolerability of EPO derivatives in FRDA. Secondary outcome measures, however, such as frataxin up-regulation and clinical efficacy were not met. This review will focus on (i) pre-clinical work on erythropoietins in FRDA and (ii) clinical studies in FRDA patients exposed to erythropoietins.

A recent publication in this journal [1] presented the results of a field study that revealed the data provided by the fingermarks not processed in a forensic science laboratory. In their study, the authors were interested in the usefulness of this additional data in order to determine whether such fingermarks would have been worth submitting to the fingermark processing workflow. Taking these ideas as a starting point, this communication here places the fingermark in its context of a case brought before a court, and examines the question of processing or not processing a fingermark from a decision-theoretic point of view. The decision-theoretic framework presented provides an answer to this question in the form of a quantified expression of the expected value of information (EVOI) associated with the processed fingermark, which can then be compared with the cost of processing the mark.

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

A massive hexanucleotide repeat expansion mutation (HREM) in C9ORF72 has recently been linked to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Here we describe the frequency, origin and stability of this mutation in ALS+/-FTD from five European cohorts (total n=1347). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms defining the risk haplotype in linked kindreds were genotyped in cases (n=434) and controls (n=856). Haplotypes were analysed using PLINK and aged using DMLE+. In a London clinic cohort, the HREM was the most common mutation in familial ALS+/-FTD: C9ORF72 29/112 (26%), SOD1 27/112 (24%), TARDBP 1/112 (1%) and FUS 4/112 (4%) and detected in 13/216 (6%) of unselected sporadic ALS cases but was rare in controls (3/856, 0.3%). HREM prevalence was high for familial ALS+/-FTD throughout Europe: Belgium 19/22 (86%), Sweden 30/41 (73%), the Netherlands 10/27 (37%) and Italy 4/20 (20%). The HREM did not affect the age at onset or survival of ALS patients. Haplotype analysis identified a common founder in all 137 HREM carriers that arose around 6300 years ago. The haplotype from which the HREM arose is intrinsically unstable with an increased number of repeats (average 8, compared with 2 for controls, P

Evidential value is measured by a likelihood ratio. This ratio has two components, the probability, or probability density, of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability (density) of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. It takes the form of a single value, even if these probabilities are subjective measures of belief of the reporting forensic scientist.

The rare type match problem is an evaluative challenging situation in which the analysis of a DNA profile reveals the presence of (at least) one allele which is not contained in the reference database. This situation is challenging because an estimate for the frequency of occurrence of the profile in a given population needs sophisticated evaluative procedures. The rare type match problem is very common when the DIP-STR marker system, which has proven itself very useful for dealing with unbalanced DNA mixtures, is used, essentially due to the limited size of the available database. The object-oriented Bayesian network proposed in Cereda, Biedermann, Hall and Taroni (2014) to assess the value of the evidence for general scenarios, was not designed to deal with this particular situation. In this paper, the model is extended and partially modified to be able to calculate the full Bayesian likelihood ratio in presence of any (observed and not yet observed) allele of a given profile. The method is based on the approach developed in Cereda (2017) for Y-STR data. Alternative solutions, such as the plug-in approximation and an empirical Bayesian methodology are also proposed and compared with the results obtained with the full Bayesian approach.

Human identification has played a prominent role in forensic science for the past two decades. Identification based on unique genetic traits is driving the field. However, this may have limitations, for instance, for twins. Moreover, high-throughput sequencing techniques are now available and may provide a high amount of data likely useful in forensic science.This study investigates the potential for bacteria found in the salivary microbiome to be used to differentiate individuals. Two different targets (16S rRNA and rpoB) were chosen to maximise coverage of the salivary microbiome and when combined, they increase the power of differentiation (identification). Paired-end Illumina high-throughput sequencing was used to analyse the bacterial composition of saliva from two different people at four different time points (t = 0 and t = 28 days and then one year later at t = 0 and t = 28 days). Five major phyla dominate the samples: Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Fusobacteria. Streptococcus, a Firmicutes, is one of the most abundant aerobic genera found in saliva and targeting Streptococcus rpoB has enabled a deeper characterisation of the different streptococci species, which cannot be differentiated using 16S rRNA alone. We have observed that samples from the same person group together regardless of time of sampling. The results indicate that it is possible to distinguish two people using the bacterial microbiota present in their saliva.

PURPOSE Spinocerebellar ataxias type 2 and 28 (SCA2, SCA28) are autosomal dominant disorders characterized by progressive cerebellar and oculomotor abnormalities. We aimed to investigate cerebellar, brainstem, and extraocular muscle involvement in the mitochondrial SCA28 disease compared with SCA2. METHODS We obtained orbital and brain 1.5 T-magnetic resonance images (MRI) in eight SCA28 subjects, nine SCA2, and nine age-matched healthy subjects. Automated segmentation of cerebellum and frontal lobe was performed using Freesurfer software. Manual segmentations for midbrain, pons, and extraocular muscles were performed using OsiriX. RESULTS Eye movement abnormalities in SCA2 subjects were characterized by slow horizontal saccades. Subjects with SCA28 variably presented hypometric saccades, saccadic horizontal pursuit, impaired horizontal gaze holding, and superior eyelid ptosis. Quantitative brain MRI demonstrated that cerebellar and pons volumes were significantly reduced in both SCA2 and SCA28 subjects compared with controls (P < 0.03), and in SCA2 subjects compared with SCA28 (P < 0.01). Midbrain and frontal lobe volumes were also significantly reduced in SCA2 compared to controls (P < 0.03), whereas these volumes did not differ between SCA2 and SCA28 and between SCA28 and control subjects. The extraocular muscle areas were 37% to 48% smaller in SCA28 subjects compared with controls (P < 0.002), and 14% to 36% smaller compared with SCA2 subjects (P < 0.03). Extraocular muscle areas did not differ between SCA2 and controls. CONCLUSIONS Our MRI findings support the hypothesis of different cerebellar and extraocular myopathic contributions in the eye movement abnormalities in SCA2 and SCA28 diseases. In SCA28, a myopathic defect selectively involving the extraocular muscles supports a specific impairment of mitochondrial energy metabolism.

Mutations in SYNE1, which encodes 'synaptic nuclear envelope protein 1', are reported to cause a relatively pure cerebellar ataxia largely limited to Quebec. By combining next-generation sequencing and deep phenotyping, however, Synofzik et al. reveal thatSYNE1 mutations in fact cause complex neurodegenerative phenotypes that occur frequently across Europe.Mutations inSYNE1, which encodes 'synaptic nuclear envelope protein 1', are reported to cause a relatively pure cerebellar ataxia largely limited to Quebec. By combining next-generation sequencing and deep phenotyping, however, Synofziket al. reveal thatSYNE1 mutations in fact cause complex neurodegenerative phenotypes that occur frequently across Europe.Mutations in the synaptic nuclear envelope protein 1 (SYNE1) gene have been reported to cause a relatively pure, slowly progressive cerebellar recessive ataxia mostly identified in Quebec, Canada. Combining next-generation sequencing techniques and deep-phenotyping (clinics, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, muscle histology), we here established the frequency, phenotypic spectrum and genetic spectrum ofSYNE1 in a screening of 434 non-Canadian index patients from seven centres across Europe. Patients were screened by whole-exome sequencing or targeted panel sequencing, yielding 23 unrelated families with recessive truncatingSYNE1 mutations (23/434 = 5.3%). In these families, 35 different mutations were identified, 34 of them not previously linked to human disease. While only 5/26 patients (19%) showed the classicalSYNE1 phenotype of mildly progressive pure cerebellar ataxia, 21/26 (81%) exhibited additional complicating features, including motor neuron features in 15/26 (58%). In three patients, respiratory dysfunction was part of an early-onset multisystemic neuromuscular phenotype with mental retardation, leading to premature death at age 36 years in one of them. Positron emission tomography imaging confirmed hypometabolism in extra-cerebellar regions such as the brainstem. Muscle biopsy reliably showed severely reduced or absent SYNE1 staining, indicating its potential use as a non-genetic indicator for underlyingSYNE1 mutations. Our findings, which present the largest systematic series of SYNE1 patients and mutations outside Canada, revise the view that SYNE1 ataxia causes mainly a relatively pure cerebellar recessive ataxia and that it is largely limited to Quebec. Instead, complex phenotypes with a wide range of extra-cerebellar neurological and non-neurological dysfunctions are frequent, including in particular motor neuron and brainstem dysfunction. The disease course in this multisystemic neurodegenerative disease can be fatal, including premature death due to respiratory dysfunction. With a relative frequency of similar to 5%, SYNE1 is one of the more common recessive ataxias worldwide.

Analysis of marks recovered from different crime scenes can be useful to detect a linkage between criminal cases, even though a putative source for the recovered traces is not available. This particular circumstance is often encountered in the early stage of investigations and thus, the evaluation of evidence association may provide useful information for the investigators. This association is evaluated here from a probabilistic point of view: a likelihood ratio based approach is suggested in order to quantify the strength of the evidence of trace association in the light of two mutually exclusive propositions, namely that the n traces come from a common source or from an unspecified number of sources. To deal with this kind of problem, probabilistic graphical models are used, in form of Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks, allowing users to intuitively handle with uncertainty related to the inferential problem.

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

This paper reports on a study to assess the potential of measurements of magnetism, using a proprietary magnetic analysis system, for the routine analysis of toners on documents printed by black and white electrophotographic systems. Magnetic properties of black toners on documents printed by a number of different devices were measured and compared. Our results indicate that the analysis of magnetism is complementary to traditional methods for analysing black toners, such as FTIR. Further, we find that the analysis of magnetism is realistically applicable in closed set cases, that is when the number of potential printing devices can be clearly defined.

Sir, We recently reported in Brain a large multi-centre study suggesting that truncating SYNE1 mutations are a recurrent cause of recessive ataxia also outside Quebec (23/434 = 5.3% of patients with unexplained early-onset ataxia) (Synofzik et al. , 2016). Moreover, this study indicated that SYNE1 ataxia might commonly present with complex multisystemic phenotypes rather than pure cerebellar ataxia, including in particular motor neuron and brainstem dysfunction (Synofzik et al. , 2016). However, confirmation of both the frequency estimate and the complex phenotypic spectrum is still lacking, raising the question whether these findings indeed represent systematic results rather than just exceptional or coincidental associations. Here, we now report the mutational and phenotypic findings on SYNE1 from a second, independent ataxia series of 116 patients. These findings not only confirm the high frequency of SYNE1 ataxia and extend both the mutational spectrum (seven novel index patients, 12 novel SYNE1 mutations) and the multisystemic phenotypic spectrum, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)-like motor neuron features, they also indicate that muscle immunohistochemistry might provide a valuable diagnostic biomarker for clarifying the pathogenic contribution of SYNE1 missense variants. This observation may have consequences for clinical SYNE1 diagnostics, as diagnostic tests are urgently needed for clarifying the role of the ubiquitous SYNE1 missense variants with unknown clinical significance (VUS), which are frequently found in neurological and non-neurological patients and controls (Synofzik et al. , 2016). Index subjects ( n = 116) with unexplained degenerative ataxia compatible with autosomal recessive inheritance (no ataxia in the parental generation) and negative for trinucleotide repeat expansions causing Friedreich’s ataxia (FRDA) were compiled from three sources: the Early Onset Ataxia Consortium ( n = 88), the ataxia centre Antwerp, Belgium ( n = 9), and the ataxia centre Milano, Italy ( n = 19). All subjects originated from European, Middle East or Mediterranean countries. This …

Background and Purpose— Lombardia GENS is a multicentre prospective study aimed at diagnosing 5 single-gene disorders associated with stroke (cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy, Fabry disease, MELAS [mitochondrial encephalomyopathy, lactic acidosis, and stroke-like episodes], hereditary cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and Marfan syndrome) by applying diagnostic algorithms specific for each clinically suspected disease Methods— We enrolled a consecutive series of patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or transient ischemic attack admitted in stroke units in the Lombardia region participating in the project. Patients were defined as probable when presenting with stroke or transient ischemic attack of unknown etiopathogenic causes, or in the presence of Results— In 209 patients (57.4±14.7 years), the application of the disease-specific algorithm identified 227 patients with possible monogenic disease. Genetic testing identified pathogenic mutations in 7% of these cases. Familial history of stroke was the only significant specific feature that distinguished mutated patients from nonmutated ones. The presence of cerebrovascular risk factors did not exclude a genetic disease. Conclusions— In patients prescreened using a clinical algorithm for monogenic disorders, we identified monogenic causes of events in 7% of patients in comparison to the 1% to 5% prevalence reported in previous series.

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling RvT 1 and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to RvTby concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors’ institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis – that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home – is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Background: Friedreich ataxia is a rare disease caused by GAA-trinucleotide-repeat expansions in the frataxin gene, leading to marked reduction of qualitatively normal frataxin protein. Recently, human recombinant erythropoietin was reported to increase frataxin levels in patients with Friedreich ataxia. Methods: We performed a 6-month, randomized placebo-controlled, double-blind, dose-response pilot trial to assess the safety and efficacy of erythropoietin in increasing frataxin levels. Sixteen adult patient with Friedreich ataxia were randomly assigned to erythropoietin (n = 11) or matching placebo (n = 5). All patients continued Idebenone treatment (5 mg/kg/day). Treatment consisted of a 6-month scaling-up phase, in which erythropoietin was administered intravenously at the following doses: 20,000 IU every 3 weeks, 40,000 IU every 3 weeks, and 40,000 IU every 2 weeks. Results: Erythropoietin treatment was safe and well tolerated, but did not result in any significant hematological, clinical, or biochemical effects in Friedreich ataxia patients. © 2012 Movement Disorder Society

Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT) is an inherited peripheral neuropathy with a heterogeneous genetic background. Here, we describe two CMT1B families with a mild sensory-motor neuropathy and a novel synonymous variant (c.309G > T, p.G103G) in exon 3 of the MPZ gene. Next generation sequencing analysis on a 94 CMT gene panel showed no mutations in other disease genes. In vitro splicing assay and mRNA expression analysis indicated that the c.309T variant enhances a cryptic donor splice site at position c.304 resulting in the markedly increased expression of the r.304_448del alternative transcript in patients' cells. This transcript is predicted to encode a truncated P0 protein (p.V102Cfs11*) lacking the transmembrane domain, thus suggesting a possible haploinsufficiency mechanism for this mutation. This is the third reported synonymous MPZ variant associated with CMT1 and affecting splicing. These data confirm the functional impact of synonymous variants on MPZ splicing and their possible role as disease-causing mutations rather than silent polymorphisms.

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the joint evaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, rather than systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable) propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative value of a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual item within a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To some degree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inference tasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particular complication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the reference method for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takes this as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as framework within which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way. Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presenting instances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness and capacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multiple and interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference, their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawn to inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish the joint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topics present aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because they have bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context. Language: en

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve--in their simplest form--a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations. Language: en

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

Ataxia with oculomotor apraxia type1 (AOA1, MIM 208920) is a rare autosomal recessive disease caused by mutations in the APTX gene. We screened a cohort of 204 patients with cerebellar ataxia and 52 patients with early-onset isolated chorea. APTX gene mutations were found in 13 ataxic patients (6%). Eleven patients were homozygous for the known p.W279X, p.W279R, and p.P206L mutations. Three novel APTX mutations were identified: c.477delC (p.I159fsX171), c.C541T (p.Q181X), and c.C916T (p.R306X). Expression of mutated proteins in lymphocytes from these patients was greatly decreased. No mutations were identified in subjects with isolated chorea. Two heterozygous APTX sequence variants (p.L248M and p.D185E) were found in six families with ataxic phenotype. Analyses of coenzyme Q10 in muscle, fibroblasts, and plasma demonstrated normal levels of coenzyme in five of six mutated subjects. The clinical phenotype was homogeneous, irrespectively of the type and location of the APTX mutation, and it was mainly characterized by early-onset cerebellar signs, sensory neuropathy, cognitive decline, and oculomotor deficits. Three cases had slightly raised alpha-fetoprotein. Our survey describes one of the largest series of AOA1 patients and contributes in defining clinical, molecular, and biochemical characteristics of this rare hereditary neurological condition.

This letter to the Editor comments on the article When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case) by N. Fenton et al. [[1], 2014].

Objective: To report 4 cases of autosomal recessive hereditary neuropathy associated with novel mutations in the periaxin gene (PRX) with a review of the literature. Periaxin protein is required for the maintenance of peripheral nerve myelin. Patients with PRX mutations have early-onset autosomal recessive demyelinating Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT4F) or Dejerine-Sottas neuropathy (DSN). Only 12 different mutations have been described thus far. Methods: Case reports and literature review. Results: Four patients from 3 unrelated families (2 siblings and 2 unrelated patients) were affected by an early-onset, slowly progressive demyelinating neuropathy with relevant sensory involvement. All carried novel frameshift or nonsense mutations in the PRX gene. The 2 siblings were compound heterozygotes for 2 PRX null mutations (p.Q547X and p.K808SfsX2), the third patient harbored a homozygous nonsense mutation (p.E682X), and the last patient had a homozygous 2-nt insertion predicting a premature protein truncation (p.S259PfsX55). Electrophysiologic analysis showed a severe slowing of motor nerve conduction velocities (MNCVs, between 3 and 15.3 m/s) with undetectable sensory nerve action potentials (SNAPs). Sural nerve biopsy, performed in 2 patients, demonstrated a severe demyelinating neuropathy and onion bulb formations. Interestingly, we observed some variability of disease severity within the same family. Conclusions: These cases and review of the literature indicate that PRX-related neuropathies have early onset but overall slow progression. Typical features are prominent sensory involvement, often with sensory ataxia; a moderate-to-dramatic reduction of MNCVs and almost invariable absence of SNAPs; and pathologic demyelination with classic onion bulbs, and less commonly myelin folding and basal lamina onion bulbs.

A novel Bayesian methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess handwriting evidence by means of a likelihood ratio (LR) designed for multivariate data. This methodology is presented and its applicability is shown through a simulated case of a threatening anonymous text where a suspect is apprehended. The shape of handwritten characters a, d, o, and q of the threatening text was compared with characters of the true writer, and then with two other writers, one with similar and one with dissimilar characters shape compared to the true writer. In each of these three situations, 100 draws of characters were made and the resulting distributions of LR were established to consider the natural handwriting variation. LR values supported the correct hypothesis in every case. This original Bayesian methodology provides a coherent and rigorous tool for the assessment of handwriting evidence, contributing undoubtedly to integrate the field of handwriting examination into science.

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches – with the help of Bayesian networks – for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

The study investigates if alpha-lipoic acid is neuroprotective against chemotherapy induced neurotoxicity, if mitochondrial damage plays a critical role in toxic neurodegenerative cascade, and if neuroprotective effects of alpha-lipoic acid depend on mitochondria protection. We used an in vitro model of chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy that closely mimic the in vivo condition by exposing primary cultures of dorsal root ganglion (DRG) sensory neurons to paclitaxel and cisplatin, two widely used and highly effective chemotherapeutic drugs. This approach allowed investigating the efficacy of alpha-lipoic acid in preventing axonal damage and apoptosis and the function and ultrastructural morphology of mitochondria after exposure to toxic agents and alpha-lipoic acid. Our results demonstrate that both cisplatin and paclitaxel cause early mitochondrial impairment with loss of membrane potential and induction of autophagic vacuoles in neurons. Alpha-lipoic acid exerts neuroprotective effects against chemotherapy induced neurotoxicity in sensory neurons: it rescues the mitochondrial toxicity and induces the expression of frataxin, an essential mitochondrial protein with anti-oxidant and chaperone properties. In conclusion mitochondrial toxicity is an early common event both in paclitaxel and cisplatin induced neurotoxicity. Alpha-lipoic acid protects sensory neurons through its anti-oxidant and mitochondrial regulatory functions, possibly inducing the expression of frataxin. These findings suggest that alpha-lipoic acid might reduce the risk of developing peripheral nerve toxicity in patients undergoing chemotherapy and encourage further confirmatory clinical trials.

The comparison of consecutively manufactured tools and firearms has provided much, but not all, of the basis for the profession of firearm and toolmark examination. The authors accept the fundamental soundness of this approach but appeal to the experimental community to close two minor gaps in the experimental procedure. We suggest that "blinding" and attention to appropriateness of other experimental conditions that would consolidate the foundations of our profession. We do not suggest that previous work is unsound.

We have recently mapped the spinocerebellar ataxia type 28 (SCA28) locus on chromosome 18p11.22 in a four-generation Italian family. The clinical phenotype in affected individuals of this family was characterized by juvenile onset, slowly progressive gait and limb ataxia, dysarthria, hyperreflexia at lower limbs, nystagmus, and ophthalmoparesis. The mean age at onset was 19.5 years, and no evidence of anticipation between generations was observed. The disease locus on chromosome 18p11.22-q11.2 was found to span a region of 7.9 Mb of genomic DNA. Direct sequencing of candidate genes within the critical interval led to the identification of a heterozygous point mutation in one of them. The mutation was located in a highly conserved domain with proposed functional properties in the protein product of the SCA28 gene, and segregated with the disease phenotype in all affected members of this family. Thereafter we have screened 105 patients with autosomal dominant spinocerebellar ataxia who had resulted negative for mutations in known SCA genes. Genetic screening allowed the identification in a second Italian family of a distinct missense mutation located in the very same functional domain of the protein. The affected members of this second family exhibited a neurological phenotype similar to that of the original family. Both mutations, not found in more than 500 chromosomes, are associated with amino acid changes (Glu-->Lys and Ser-->Leu, respectively) in evolutionarily conserved residues of the alleged SCA28 gene. Our data point to a putative pathogenic role of these mutations, and indicate SCA28 as the sixth recognized SCA genotype caused by point mutations.

Summary The evaluation of handwritten characters that are selected from an anonymous letter and written material from a suspect is an open problem in forensic science. The individualization of handwriting is largely dependent on examiners who evaluate the characteristics in a qualitative and subjective way. Precise individual characterization of the shape of handwritten characters is possible through Fourier analysis: each handwritten character can be described through a set of variables such as the surface and harmonics as demonstrated by Marquis and co-workers in 2005. The assessment of the value of the evidence is performed through the derivation of a likelihood ratio for multivariate data. The methodology allows the forensic scientist to take into account the correlation between variables, and the non-constant variability within sources (i.e. individuals). Numerical procedures are implemented to handle the complexity and to compute the marginal likelihood under competing propositions.

SCA17 is a rare type of autosomal dominant spinocerebellar ataxia caused by a CAG/CAA expansion in the gene encoding the TATA-binding protein (TBP). We screened for triplet expansion in the TBP gene 110 subjects with progressive cerebellar ataxia and 94 subjects with Huntington-like phenotype negative at specific molecular tests. SCA17 mutation-positive subjects were found in both groups of patients. Expanded alleles withor = 44 CAG/CAA repeats were identified in 11 individuals and in 4 non-symptomatic relatives. Eleven de novo diagnosed patients and four patients previously reported underwent extensive clinical, neuroradiological and oculographic examination. Cerebellar signs and symptoms were present in all cases; 80% of the patients had mild to severe cognitive deficits; 66% of patients showed choreic movements; pyramidal signs, bradykinesia and dystonia were observed in approx 50% of the cases. MRI demonstrated cortical and cerebellar atrophy in all patients, whereas neurophysiological examination excluded signs of peripheral nervous system involvement. Oculographic examinations were performed in 9 out of 15 patients and showed a distinct pattern of oculomotor abnormalities, characterized by impairment of smooth pursuit, defects in the saccade accuracy, normal saccade velocity, hyperreflexia of vestibuloocular reflexes, and absence of nystagmus. In summary, this study presents one of the largest series of SCA17 patients in Europe. In our group of patients, SCA17 represents the third most frequent SCA genotype. Our clinical data confirm the large variability in SCA17 phenotypic presentation, and indicate that a peculiar combination of neuroradiological, electrophysiological and oculomotor findings is recognizable in SCA17.

This paper addresses the implementation of Bayesian sampling methodology in a graphical probability environment, i.e. Bayesian networks (BNs). An architecture of BNs which is able to be used for sampling from small and large consignments is outlined in detail. Through direct interaction with their users, the proposed models provide a framework that is capable of dealing with several distinct sampling issues, such as (i) the calculation of posterior probability distributions for the proportion of ‘positives’ (i.e. discrete units with a characteristic of interest) in a consignment as well as for the number of positives among a consignment's uninspected items, (ii) case preassessment and (iii) likelihood-ratio evaluation. A discussion is included on features of the proposed models that allow one to account for further complications such as competing prior beliefs about the proportion of positives in a consignment and potentially misclassified data (e.g. positive testing results obtained from units that are actually negative).

Deletions within the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cause Kearns Sayre syndrome (KSS) and chronic progressive external opthalmoplegia (CPEO). The clinical signs of KSS include muscle weakness, heart block, pigmentary retinopathy, ataxia, deafness, short stature, and dementia. The identical deletions occur and rise exponentially as humans age, particularly in substantia nigra. Deletions at >30% concentration cause deficits in basic bioenergetic parameters, including membrane potential and ATP synthesis, but it is poorly understood how these alterations cause the pathologies observed in patients. To better understand the consequences of mtDNA deletions, we microarrayed six cell types containing mtDNA deletions from KSS and CPEO patients. There was a prominent inhibition of transcripts encoding ubiquitin-mediated proteasome activity, and a prominent induction of transcripts involved in the AMP kinase pathway, macroautophagy, and amino acid degradation. In mutant cells, we confirmed a decrease in proteasome biochemical activity, significantly lower concentration of several amino acids, and induction of an autophagic transcript. An interpretation consistent with the data is that mtDNA deletions increase protein damage, inhibit the ubiquitin-proteasome system, decrease amino acid salvage, and activate autophagy. This provides a novel pathophysiological mechanism for these diseases, and suggests potential therapeutic strategies.

Cerebrotendinous xanthomatosis (CTX) is an autosomal-recessive disorder of lipid storage caused by mutations in the CYP27A1 gene, coding for a sterol 27-hydroxylase, leading to increased deposition of cholesterol in multiple tissues. CTX is characterized by the association of early non-neurological manifestations and adult-onset neurological dysfunctions (spastic ataxia, dementia, psychiatric disorders, peripheral neuropathy). Early and long-term treatment with chenodeoxycholic acid (CDCA) can slow down neurological symptoms progression, but diagnosis usually has a delay of several years. We report two Italian siblings having quite different phenotypes associated to a G-to-A transition in the c-1263 terminal causing a splicing alteration. This mutation has not been described before in Italy, and has been reported once in Japan. This case widens the clinical and genetic spectrum of Cerebrotendinous Xantomatosis in Italy and would like to suggest the importance of genetic testing in patients with autosomal recessive spastic paraparesis associated with typical non-neurological symptoms.

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.