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SUMMARYThere is an urgent need to understand how climate change, including sea-level rise, is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects, such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change, and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot, were modelled and assessed for the 2070–2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affectc. 100000 km2, and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot, as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change, and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture.

virtualspecies is a freely available package for R designed to generate virtual species distributions, a procedure increasingly used in ecology to improve species distribution models. This package combines the existing methodological approaches with the objective of generating virtual species distributions with increased ecological realism. The package includes 1) generating the probability of occurrence of a virtual species from a spatial set of environmental conditions (i.e. environmental suitability), with two different approaches; 2) converting the environmental suitability into presence-absence with a probabilistic approach; 3) introducing dispersal limitations in the realised virtual species distributions and 4) sampling occurrences with different biases in the sampling procedure. The package was designed to be extremely flexible, to allow users to simulate their own defined species-environment relationships, as well as to provide a fine control over every simulation parameter. The package also includes a function to generate random virtual species distributions. We provide a simple example in this paper showing how increasing ecological realism of the virtual species impacts the predictive performance of species distribution models. We expect that this new package will be valuable to researchers willing to test techniques and protocols of species distribution models as well as various biogeographical hypotheses.

James C. Russell,∗† Holly P. Jones,‡ Doug P. Armstrong,§ Franck Courchamp,∗∗ Peter J. Kappes,†† Philip J. Seddon,‡‡ Steffen Oppel,§§ Mark J. Rauzon,∗∗∗ Phil E. Cowan,††† Gerard Rocamora,† Piero Genovesi,‡‡‡ Elsa Bonnaud,∗∗ Bradford S. Keitt,§§§ Nick D. Holmes,§§§ and Bernie R. Tershy∗∗∗∗ ∗School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand, email j.russell@auckland.ac.nz †Island Biodiversity & Conservation Center, University of Seychelles, P.O. Box 1348, Anse Royale, Republic of Seychelles ‡Department of Biological Sciences and Institute for the Study of the Environment, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL 60115, U.S.A. §Wildlife Ecology Group, Institute of Natural Resources, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand ∗∗Ecologie Systematique Evolution, Universite Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Universite Paris-Saclay, 91400 Orsay, France ††Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A. ‡‡Department of Zoology, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand §§RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, United Kingdom ∗∗∗Geography Department, Laney College, Oakland, CA 94607, U.S.A. †††Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand ‡‡‡Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Via V. Brancati 48, Rome I-00144, Italy §§§Island Conservation, 2161 Delaware Avenue Suite A, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, U.S.A. ∗∗∗∗University of California Santa Cruz, 100 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, U.S.A.

International audience; Predictive studies are of paramount importance for biological invasions, one of the biggest threats for biodiversity. To help and better prioritize management strategies, species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the potential invasive range of introduced species. Yet, SDMs have been regularly criticized, due to several strong limitations, such as violating the equilibrium assumption during the invasion process. Unfortunately, validation studies–with independent data–are too scarce to assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in invasion biology. Yet, biological invasions allow to test SDMs usefulness, by retrospectively assessing whether they would have accurately predicted the latest ranges of invasion. Here, we assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs in predicting the expansion of invasive species. We used temporal occurrence data for the Asian hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax, a species native to China that is invading Europe with a very fast rate. Specifically, we compared occurrence data from the last stage of invasion (independent validation points) to the climate suitability distribution predicted from models calibrated with data from the early stage of invasion. Despite the invasive species not being at equilibrium yet, the predicted climate suitability of validation points was high. SDMs can thus adequately predict the spread of V. v. nigrithorax, which appears to be—at least partially–climatically driven. In the case of V. v. nigrithorax, SDMs predictive accuracy was slightly but significantly better when models were calibrated with invasive data only, excluding native data. Although more validation studies for other invasion cases are needed to generalize our results, our findings are an important step towards validating the use of SDMs in invasion biology.

Many ants are among the most globally significant invasive species. They have caused the local decline and extinction of a variety of taxa ranging from plants to mammals. They disturb ecosystem processes, decrease agricultural production, damage infrastructure and can be a health hazard for humans. Overall, economic costs caused by invasive ants amount to several billion US $ annually. There is general consensus that the future distributions of invasive species are likely to expand with climate change, however this dogma remains poorly tested. Here we model suitable area globally for 15 of the worst invasive ant species, both currently and with predicted climate change (in 2080), globally, regionally and within the world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots. Surprisingly, the potential distribution of only five species was predicted to increase (up to 35.8 %) with climate change, with most declining by up to 63.3 %. The ant invasion hotspots are predominantly in tropical and subtropical regions of South America, Africa, Asia and Oceanic islands, and particularly correspond with biodiversity hotspots. Contrary to general expectations, climate change and invasive ant species will not systematically act synergistically. However, ant invasions will likely remain as a major global problem, especially where invasion hotspots coincide with biodiversity hotspots.

Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management.

SUMMARYAnts are among the worst invasive species, and can have tremendous negative impacts on native biodiversity, agriculture, estates, property and human health. Invasive ants are extremely difficult to control, and thus early detection is essential to prevent ant invasions, in particular through surveillance efforts at ports of entry. This paper assesses the potential distribution of 14 of the worst invasive ant species in France, under current and future climatic conditions. Consensus species distribution models, using five different modelling techniques, three global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios, indicated that France presented suitable areas for 10/14 species, including five listed on the Invasive Species Specialist Group's selection of the world's 100 worst invasive species. Among these 10 species, eight were predicted to increase their potential range with climate change. Areas with the highest concentration of potential invaders were mainly located along the coastline, especially in the south-west of France, but all departments appeared to be climatically suitable for at least two invasive species. A ranking of climatic suitability per species for 17 major airports and 14 maritime ports indicated that the ports of entry with the highest suitability were located in Biarritz, Toulon and Nice, and the species with the greatest potential distribution in France were Lasius neglectus and Linepithema humile, followed by Solenopsis richteri, Pheidole megacephala and Wasmannia auropunctata.

International audience; In Ripple et al. [1], 15 364 scientists from 184 countries issue a ‘warning to humanity’ and present a radical agenda to protect planet Earth. We, the billions of people believing in human exceptionalism, categorically reject this agenda and issue in return a stark warning to planet Earth. No amount of facts showing that planet Earth is in a dire state will have us changing our mindset, thank you very much. We do not care about planet Earth. We care about our next devices and their latest cool features. We want more stuff.The signatories of Ripple et al. [1] ignore the obvious facts that the era when poets could marvel at the diversity of flower or insect species is over, and that real-world wildlife has now become obsolete. We simply take our smartphones to overlay customized virtual creatures on our surrounding environment and dispose of them when new trends dictate. There is no longer a need to preserve filthy and dangerous wildlife that moreover lives in places where Amazon Prime does not deliver. More iPhones are sold in a few days [2] than there are tigers, elephants, and gorillas on the planet: this should alert the signatories to what really matters, were they not ideologically biased against human progress.Those scientists argue that we are approaching many of the planetary limits. We refuse to accept any type of limits: growth must indefinitely prevail unrestricted. We officially summon planet Earth to abandon its intransigent attitude and accept the inevitable: an extension of its biological and physical limits. Should planet Earth stick with its hardline ideological stance, it needs to be aware that mankind will never compromise and that we will seek a second planet. The universe is like our ambition: limitless.The new economy of nature, whereby ecosystem services such as pollination are monetarily valued, should not be understood as another dogmatic way of protecting planet Earth. It is instead a call to producers and shareholders to conquer new markets by outcompeting nature with better services at a cheaper price for consumers. Ecosystems must fight for their survival like any other business. Protecting nature would moreover give it an undue competitive advantage against our industries. If our agricultural practices endanger the bees that pollinate crops, this does not imply we should change these practices. Instead we will let bees disappear and replace them by AI-powered microdrones – which create many jobs and do not sting.The obvious ideological aim of Ripple et al. [1] is to inspire a generation of scientists to ask broader questions relevant to overconsumption and overpopulation, and how our institutions can meet the challenge of reducing human pressure on planet Earth. We find this unacceptable and call on the 15 364 signatories to join us on the side of winners against planet Earth, and hence to symbolically withdraw their signatures by not engaging in any of the research suggested in the warning to humanity. Fellow scientists, ask not what more you can do for planet Earth, ask what more planet Earth can do for you. And note how politicians on both the left and right are already united in this truly bipartisan issue that beautifully transcends the political divide: worshipping growth and denying that we depend on our environment.We therefore strongly oppose the agenda accompanying the warning to humanity and will not tolerate any obstacle to our way of life – be it tree-huggers or the trees themselves. At the first Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the 41st US President claimed ‘our way of life is not up for negotiation’. Today, speaking in the name of billions of people, we proudly claim to all be US presidents. Planet Earth: consider yourself warned.

International audience; Although sea level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming, yet it remains one of the least studied. Several studies strongly suggested that sea level rise will accelerate in the future with a potentially rise from 0.5 to 2 m at the end of the century. However, currently island conservation programs do not take into account the potential effects of sea level rise. Therefore, we investigated the potential consequences of sea level rise for 1,269 French islands worldwide, by assessing the total number of island that will be totally submerged for three different scenarios (1, 2 and 3 m). Under the worst scenario, up to 12% of all islands could be entirely submerged. Two regions displayed the most significant loss of island: New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Focusing on New Caledonia, we highlighted that endemic plant species that are already classified as critically endangered by the IUCN will be the most vulnerable to sea level rise. Losses of insular habitats will thus be important in the next decades for the French islands. Given that French islands covers all latitudes in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and in the Mediterranean, our results suggested that the implications for the 180 000 islands around the world should be considerable. Therefore, decision makers are required to define island conservation priorities that will suffer of the future sea level rise.

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an important tool to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of a given species. Generally, projections for a chosen time horizon in the future are compared with the size of the species’ current distribution. In this study, we show that selection of the target time horizon can qualitatively alter the prediction of a species’ future distribution. We illustrate this by assessing the potential distribution of 15 invasive ant species in 2020, 2050 and 2080 at a global scale. Our results indicate that for 6 out of the 15 species modelled, the trend of potential habitat size (i.e., decrease or increase) changed over time following climate change. In four species, the sign of the trend changed, from an initial expansion to a subsequent reduction or vice versa, depending on the date projected to. In some cases, these changes were great (e.g., from an initial increase of 36.5% in 2050 to a decrease of −64.3% in 2080). Our findings stress the importance of using several projection horizons to avoid misled species management decisions.

International audience; Biological invasions are among the greatest threats to global biodiversity, but in contrast to most other global threats, they suffer from specific communication issues. Our paper presents the first new addition to the widely cited IUCN list of ''100 of the world's worst invasive species'', a list created a decade ago in response to these communication issues. We briefly present this list, the recent removal of one species from that list, and the rationale to include a novel, 100th species to replace it. The new species of this list, giant salvinia (Salvinia molesta), was chosen by the community of invasion biologists (over 650 experts from over 60 countries). This new addition to the list will draw public attention to the damage caused by invasive alien species and it will help stimulate the necessary discussion of this critical issue in science and policy circles.

International audience; Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Asclimaticallysuitablerangeprojectionsbecomeincreasinglyusedtoassessdistributionsofspecies, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions.

Aim Despite considerable attention to climate change, no global assessment of the consequences of sea level rise is available for insular ecosystems. Yet, over 180,000 islands world-wide contain 20% of the world's biodiversity. We investigated the consequences of sea level rise for the 10 insular biodiversity hotspots world-wide and their endemic species. This assessment is crucial to identify areas with the highest risk of inundation and the number of endemic species at risk of potential extinction. Location Ten insular biodiversity hotspots including the Caribbean islands, the Japanese islands, the Philippines, the East Melanesian islands, Polynesia-Micronesia, Sundaland, Wallacea, New Caledonia, New Zealand and Madagascar and the Indian Ocean islands (i.e. 4447 islands). Methods We investigated four scenarios of projected sea level rise (1, 2, 3 and 6 m) on these islands. For each scenario, we assessed the number of islands that would be entirely and partially submerged by overlying precise digital elevation model and island data. We estimated the number of endemic species for each taxon (i.e. plants, birds, reptiles, mammals, amphibians and fishes) potentially affected by insular habitat submersion using the endemic–area relationship. Results Between 6 and 19% of the 4447 islands would be entirely submerged under considered scenarios (1–6 m of sea level rise). Three hotspots displayed the most significant loss of insular habitat: the Caribbean islands, the Philippines and Sundaland, representing a potential threat for 300 endemic species. Main conclusions With the current estimates of global sea level rise of at least 1 m by 2100, large parts of ecosystems of low-lying islands are at high risk of becoming submerged, leading to significant habitat loss world-wide. Therefore, the threat posed by sea level rise requires specific policies that prioritize insular biota on islands at risk as a result of near future sea level rise.

Insects have presented human society with some of its greatest development challenges by spreading diseases, consuming crops and damaging infrastructure. Despite the massive human and financial toll of invasive insects, cost estimates of their impacts remain sporadic, spatially incomplete and of questionable quality. Here we compile a comprehensive database of economic costs of invasive insects. Taking all reported goods and service estimates, invasive insects cost a minimum of US$70.0 billion per year globally, while associated health costs exceed US$6.9 billion per year. Total costs rise as the number of estimate increases, although many of the worst costs have already been estimated (especially those related to human health). A lack of dedicated studies, especially for reproducible goods and service estimates, implies gross underestimation of global costs. Global warming as a consequence of climate change, rising human population densities and intensifying international trade will allow these costly insects to spread into new areas, but substantial savings could be achieved by increasing surveillance, containment and public awareness., Invasive insects impose many economic costs, for example by consuming crops and spreading disease. Here, Bradshaw et al. compile a database of the costs of invasive insects and conservatively estimate that the yearly global cost (in 2014-equivalent US dollars) is at least $70 billion for goods and services and $6.9 billion for human health.

Data Deficient species (DD) comprise a significant portion of the total number of species listed within the IUCN Red List. Although they are not classified within one of the threat categories, they may still face high extinction risks. However, due to limited data available to infer their extinction risk reliably, it is unlikely that the assessment of the true status of Data Deficient species would be possible before many species decline to extinction. An appropriate measure to resolve these problems would be to introduce a flag of potentially threatened species within the Data Deficient category [i.e., DD(PT)]. Such a flag would represent a temporary Red List status for listed Data Deficient species that are, based on the available direct evidence and/or indirect indices, likely to be assigned to one of the threat categories, but where current data remains insufficient for a complete classification. The use of such a flag could increase the focus of the scientific community and conservation decision-makers on such species, thus avoiding the risk that necessary conservation measures are implemented too late. As such, establishment of the DD(PT) category as a kind of alarm for priority species could be beneficial.

We argue that human-mediated invasions are part of the spectrum of species movements, not a unique phenomenon, because species self-dispersing into novel environments are subject to the same barriers of survival, reproduction, dispersal and further range expansion as those assisted by people. Species changing their distributions by human-mediated and non-human mediated modes should be of identical scientific interest to invasion ecology and ecology. Distinctions between human-mediated invasions and natural colonisations are very valid for management and policy, but we argue that these are value-laden distinctions and not necessarily an appropriate division for science, which instead should focus on distinctions based on processes and mechanisms. We propose an all-encompassing framework of species range expansion. This does not detract from the importance of invasion biology as a discipline, but instead will help bring together research being conducted on multiple taxa, and by multiple disciplines, including epidemiology, that are often focused on an identical phenomenon: colonisation.

Among invasive species, ants are a particularly prominent group with enormous impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Globalization and on-going climate change are likely to increase the rate of ant invasions in the future, leading to simultaneous introductions of several highly invasive species within the same area. Here, we investigate pairwise interactions among four highly invasive species, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Pheidole megacephala and Wasmannia auropunctata, at the whole colony level, using a laboratory set-up. Each colony consisted of 300 workers and one queen. The number of surviving workers in the competing colonies was recorded daily over 7 weeks. We modelled the survival of each colony during pairwise colony interactions, using a nonlinear model characterizing the survival dynamics of each colony individually. The least dominant species was P. megacephala, which always went extinct. Interactions among the three other species showed more complex dynamics, rendering the outcome of the interactions less predictable. Overall, W. auropunctata and L. neglectus were the most dominant species. This study shows the importance of scaling up to the colony level in order to gain realism in predicting the outcome of multiple invasions., This paper was supported by Région Ile-de-France (03-2010/GV-DIM ASTREA), ANR (2009 PEXT 010 01) and BiodivERsa Eranet grants, FFII Project.

International audience; In this paper, we investigate how climate, land use, habitat characteristics, and socioeconomic activities contribute to predict the current potential distributions of the “100 among the world's worst invasive alien species”. We calculated the predictive power of each of the 41 variables for the 95 species including a large number of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates. We then calibrated the species distribution models with a set of appropriate variables for each invasive alien species to predict the potential distribution of these species and identify the major regions of origin of the invasive alien species. We found that climate variables were primarily predictors of the distribution of the global invaders studied. In addition, the habitat characteristics were also important predictors following by the socioeconomic variables such as the nearest distance to airports, seaports and human population density. We show that the potential areas at the highest risk of invasions from these species are located in Western Europe, Eastern United States, Central America, the eastern coast of Australia, and some Indonesian islands. We argue that these potential hotspots of invasions should be monitored in priority to prevent new invasions from these species. This study provides evidence of the importance of considering both habitat characteristics, socioeconomic and climate change factors for the current and future predictions of biological invasions.

Air pollution, especially haze pollution, is creating health issues for both humans and other animals. However, remarkably little is known about how animals behaviourally respond to air pollution. We used multiple linear regression to analyse 415 pigeon races in the North China Plain, an area with considerable air pollution and found that while the proportion of pigeons successfully homed was not influenced by air pollution, pigeons homed faster when the air was especially polluted. Our results may be explained by an enhanced homing motivation and possibly an enriched olfactory environment that facilitates homing. Our study provides a unique example of animals’ response to haze pollution; future studies are needed to identify proposed mechanisms underlying this effect.

Invasive rodents occur on over 80% of the world's island groups, invasions are continuing, and rodent impacts on insular wildlife have been well demonstrated. The extent of this problem calls for tools to aid large-scale prioritisation among the many candidate eradication operations. As conservation funds are limited, biologists have responded with prioritisation systems based on financial cost-effec- tiveness. Instead, we claim that long-term conserva- tion gain should be the primary focus when prioritising islands for invasive rodent eradication. This concept is embodied mainly by invasive rodent reinvasion risk, which we categorise as natural or anthropogenic, based on the mechanism of reinvasion and our ability to mitigate the risk. The result is a first-pass triage system that prioritises eradication programmes by their long-term conservation potential, not their immediate value for money. To construct a prioritiza- tion list, we group islands into units for simultaneous eradication, to minimize inter-island reinvasion risk, and then assign weights to levels of unit reinvasion risk and unit conservation value. The choice of parameter weights may depend on capacity for biosecurity action (i.e. reduction in reinvasion risk) and a choice of tertiary filter variables can further discriminate within priority ranks. We illustrate our prioritization framework with a case study on rodents in New Caledonia but explain how our system can be adapted to suit any invasive rodent species or island configuration.

From insects to mammals, many animals engage in behaviours known to follow cyclic patterns over days (e.g. singing, diving or foraging behaviours). Many of them are regulated by external factors, such as light intensity, and are thus associated with sunrise, sunset or zenith. However, these astronomical events do not occur at the same time everyday: they vary with both the time of the year and the latitude. Logically, therefore, behaviour timing should be recorded relative to these events. Yet, in the field, recording the timing of behaviour is much less difficult with a clock, which is often deemed a suitable common proxy. In this paper, we assess the potential methodological problems associated with analyzing behaviours on the basis of clock time rather than with the actual position of the sun. To demonstrate the important difference between these methods of analysis, we first simulated a behaviour set at sunrise and compared the time of occurrence with the two methods. We then used a dataset, based on a long-term monitoring of hunting behaviour of African wild dogs, Lycaon pictus, to reveal how using clock time can result in erroneous assumptions about behaviour. Finally, we investigated the occurrence of sun time records in published field studies. As a majority of them did not take into account the relevance of astronomical events, it is probable that many result in faulty behavioural timings. The model presented can change clock-recorded time into actual deviation from astronomical events to assist current protocols as well as correct the already recorded datasets.

The size and shape of a trophy constitute major determinants of its value. We postulate that the rarity of a species, whatever its causes, also plays a major role in determining its value among hunters. We investigated a role for an Anthropogenic Allee effect in trophy hunting, where human attraction to rarity could lead to an over-exploitative chain reaction that could eventually drive the targeted species to extinction. We performed an inter-specific analysis of trophy prices of 202 ungulate taxa and quantified to what extent morphological characteristics and their rarity accounted for the observed variation in their price. We found that once location and body mass were accounted for, trophies of rare species attain higher prices than those of more common species. By driving trophy price increase, this rarity effect may encourage the exploitation of rare species regardless of their availability, with potentially profound consequences for populations.

A.M. Kramer & J.M. Drake (2010) Experimental demonstration of population extinction due to a predator-driven Allee effect. Journal of Animal Ecology, 79, 633–639. Experimental evidence of extinction via an Allee effect (AE) is a priority as more species become threatened by human activity. Kramer & Drake (2010) begin the International Year of Biodiversity with the important – but double-edged – demonstration that predators can induce an AE in their prey. The good news is that their experiments help bridge the knowledge gap between theoretical and empirical AEs. The bad news is that this predator-driven AE precipitates the prey extinction via a demographic AE. Although their findings will be sensitive to departures from their experimental protocol, this link between predation and population extinction could have important consequences for many prey species.

International audience; A widespread opinion is that conservation efforts disproportionately benefit charismatic species. However, this doesn’t mean that they are not threatened, and which species are “charismatic” remains unclear. Here, we identify the 10 most charismatic animals and show that they are at high risk of imminent extinction in the wild. We also find that the public ignores these animals’ predicament and we suggest it could be due to the observed biased perception of their abundance, based more on their profusion in our culture than on their natural populations. We hypothesize that this biased perception impairs conservation efforts because people are unaware that the animals they cherish face imminent extinction and do not perceive their urgent need for conservation. By freely using the image of rare and threatened species in their product marketing, many companies may participate in creating this biased perception, with unintended detrimental effects on conservation efforts, which should be compensated by channeling part of the associated profits to conservation. According to our hypothesis, this biased perception would be likely to last as long as the massive cultural and commercial presence of charismatic species is not accompanied by adequate information campaigns about the imminent threats they face.

Summary 1. In Caut, Angulo & Courchamp (2008a) rats were fed with experimental diets of distinct isotopic values (d 13 Ca ndd 15 N) in order to infer the discrimination factors. We showed negative relationships between discrimination factors and diet isotopic values. In Caut, Angulo & Courchamp (2009), our aim was to generalize these relationships to other taxonomic groups with a view to providing ecologists with a general and flexible method to obtain discrimination factors for diet reconstruction studies when difficult to obtain otherwise. 2. Perga & Grey (2010) claims that there is an artefact of experimental design (due to protein contents) and partly reanalyzes our data, taking into account the type of diet (mixed or not; carnivorous, omnivorous or herbivorous). However, (i) the role of protein content through isotopic routing is not clear; (ii) a reanalysis of our data shows that the relationships between discrimination factors and diet isotopic values remain significant even when following Perga’s suggestions. 3. Auerswald et al. (2010) criticized the imprecise definitions, mathematical artefacts and invalid statistical analysis of Caut, Angulo & Courchamp (2009). However, (i) their arguments are not new; they challenge the use of stable isotope in ecological trophic studies in general, and lack both alternative suggestions and ecological perspective; (ii) none of their statistical and mathematical objections has a significant effect on the results. 4. Synthesis and applications. Neither reply reflects the current context of debate. The complementarity between experimental studies and their application in field studies is indispensable for the use of stable isotopes in ecology. Protocols should be very well assessed in order to represent field conditions with accuracy. Further analyses are necessary to remove some of the flaws in the use of stable isotopes (carrying out an in-depth analysis of isotopic routing, turnover, and dynamic during trophic experiments to ensure accurate attainment of equilibrium), but none of the issues raised by Perga & Grey (2010) and Auerswald et al. (2010) alter our main conclusions.

In this paper, we review mate-finding Allee effects from ecological and evolutionary points of view. We define ‘mate-finding’ as mate searching in mobile animals, and also as the meeting of gametes for sessile animals and plants (pollination). We consider related issues such as mate quality and choice, sperm limitation and physiological stimulation of reproduction by conspecifics, as well as discussing the role of demographic stochasticity in generating mate-finding Allee effects. We consider the role of component Allee effects due to mate-finding in generating demographic Allee effects (at the population level). Compelling evidence for demographic Allee effects due to mate-finding (as well as via other mechanisms) is still limited, due to difficulties in censusing rare populations or a failure to identify underlying mechanisms, but also because of fitness trade-offs, population spatial structure and metapopulation dynamics, and because the strength of component Allee effects may vary in time and space. Mate-finding Allee effects act on individual fitness and are thus susceptible to change via natural selection. We believe it is useful to distinguish two routes by which evolution can act to mitigate mate-finding Allee effects. The first is evolution of characteristics such as calls, pheromones, hermaphroditism, etc. which make mate-finding more efficient at low density, thus eliminating the Allee effect. Such adaptations are very abundant in the natural world, and may have arisen to avoid Allee effects, although other hypotheses are also possible. The second route is to avoid low density via adaptations such as permanent or periodic aggregation. In this case, the Allee effect is still present, but its effects are avoided. These two strategies may have different consequences in a world where many populations are being artificially reduced to low density: in the first case, population growth rate can be maintained, while in the second case, the mechanism to avoid Allee effects has been destroyed. It is therefore in these latter populations that we predict the greatest evidence for mate-finding Allee effects and associated demographic consequences. This idea is supported by the existing empirical evidence for demographic Allee effects. Given a strong effect that mate-finding appears to have on individual fitness, we support the continuing quest to find connections between component mate-finding Allee effects (individual reproductive fitness) and the demographic consequences. There are many reasons why such studies are difficult, but it is important, particularly given the increasing number of populations and species of conservation concern, that the ecological community understands more about how widespread demographic Allee effects really are, and why.

Summary 1The use of stable isotopic techniques to study animal diets and trophic levels requires a priori estimates of discrimination factors (Δ13C and Δ15N, also called fractionation factors), which are the differences in isotopic composition between an animal and its diet. Previous studies have shown that these parameters depend on several sources of variation (e.g. taxon, environment, tissue) but diet as a source of variation still needs assessment. 2We conducted an extensive review of the literature (66 publications) concerning estimates of animal-diet Δ13C (n = 290) and Δ15N (n = 268). We analysed this data set to test the effect of diet isotopic ratio on the discrimination factor, taking into account taxa, tissues, environments and lipid extraction treatments. Our results showed differences among taxonomic classes for Δ13C, but not for Δ15N, and significant differences among tissues for both Δ13C and Δ15N. We found a significant negative relationship between both, Δ13C and Δ15N, with their corresponding diet isotopic ratios. This relationship was found also within taxonomic classes for mammals (Δ13C and Δ15N), birds (Δ13C), fishes (Δ13C and Δ15N) and invertebrates (Δ13C and Δ15N). From these relationships, we propose a method to calculate discrimination factors based on data on diet isotope ratios (termed the ‘Diet-Dependent Discrimination Factor’, DDDF). 3To investigate current practice in the use of discrimination factors, we reviewed studies that used multi-resource isotopic models. More than 60% of models used a discrimination factor coming from a different species or tissues, and in more than 70% of models, only one Δ13C or Δ15N was used for all resources, even if resources had very different isotopic ratios. Also, we estimated DDDFs for the studies that used isotopic models. More than 40% used Δ15N values and more than 33% used Δ13C values differing > 2‰ from estimated DDDFs. 4Synthesis and applications. Over the last decade, applied ecologists have discovered the potential of stable isotopes for animal diet reconstruction, but the successful adoption of the method relies on a good estimation of discrimination factors. We draw attention to the high variability in discrimination factors, advise caution in the use of single discrimination factors in isotopic models, and point to a method for obtaining adequate values for this parameter when discrimination factors cannot be measured experimentally. Future studies should focus on understanding why discrimination factors vary as a function of the isotopic value of the diet.

The exploitation of rare and endangered species can end in the species’s extinction because the increased value people associate with rarity increases the economic incentive to exploit the last individuals, creating a positive feedback loop. This recently proposed concept, called the anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE ), relies on the assumption that people do value rarity, but this remains to be established. Moreover, it also remains to be determined whether attraction to rarity is a trait confined to a minority of hobbyists (e.g. wildlife collectors, exotic pet owners) or characteristic of the general public. We estimated how much the general public valued rare species compared with common ones, using five different metrics related to personal investment: time spent, physical effort, unpleasantness, economic investment and risk. We surveyed the visitors of a zoo. To see the rare species, the visitors to the zoo invested more time in searching and contemplation, they were ready to expend more physical effort, they tolerated more unpleasant conditions, they were willing to pay more and, finally, they risked more to obtain (steal) a rare species. Our results provide substantial evidence of how the general public places more value on rare species, compared with common species. This confirms the AAE as an actual process, which in addition concerns a large part of the population. This has important consequences for the conservation of species that are rare now, or that could become so in the future

Eradications of invasive alien species have generally benefited biodiversity. However, without sufficient planning, successful eradications can have unexpected and unwanted consequences for native species and ecosystems. In particular, the “surprise effect” is the rapid increase of hitherto unnoticed species following the sudden removal of an invasive alien that was exerting an ecological force on those species (predation, competition or herbivory, for example). The only way to prevent these undesired outcomes is to adapt the control programme following the characterization of the trophic relationships between the invasive alien species and the invaded communities, that is, to view the control with a holistic perspective. Here, we illustrate this point with the study of the role of the ship rat (Rattus rattus), which invaded a tropical pacific atoll, Surprise Island, New Caledonia. We assessed the risk of surprise effects during a pre-eradication phase of several years, and then adapted our eradication strategy accordingly.

The international market for luxury goods puts pressure on many wildlife species, with potentially irreversible consequences for many of them. Although classical economic theory suggests that trade alone would not drive a rare species to extinction, in practice numerous species are being threatened by overexploitation. This is for example the case for sturgeons, exploited for their caviar, of which all 27 species are threatened with extinction. We performed a caviar-tasting experiment, combined with a modeling approach merging ecological theory and psychosociology. This allowed us to demonstrate that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity drives sturgeons’ overexploitation, despite caviar's ever-increasing price and the imminent loss of these species. These findings suggest that this mechanism probably drives the entire market for wildlife based luxury goods.

Classifying species by threat status can result in conservation benefits such as increased protection, but can also be an incentive to hunters responding to increased consumer demand for goods perceived to be rare, and therefore valuable. Bioeconomic theory provides a framework for examining the population consequences of differing responses of consumers (demand) and hunters (supply) to perceived rarity. We present a series of illustrative case studies of how perceived rarity affects consumer behavior and hunting pressure, and use a model to explore the scenario of most conservation concern (where rarity itself fuels increased exploitation). Rarity-fuelled demand can have two undesirable outcomes: the species may become trapped at a low population size, or escalating hunting effort may drive the species to extinction. Understanding the response of consumers and hunters to perceived rarity is vital for predicting the impact of intervention strategies that seek to minimize extinction risk.

Summary 1Naturally occurring stable isotopes in resources and their consumer allow the estimation of nutritional flows between the two and have been much used to improve our understanding of the nutritional ecology of free-living animals. 2The difference in isotopic composition between an animal and its diet is represented by a discrimination factor. Carbon and nitrogen flows are estimated by calculating the discrimination factors in stable isotope ratios (δ15N and δ13C), which are presumed to be c. 3‰ and 1‰ heavier in the consumer tissues than those in their resources, respectively. 3The discrimination factor is known to vary according to species, tissue, age, growth rates and food quality, but the estimation of discrimination factors is difficult and a fixed discrimination factor is usually used in diet reconstruction. It has also been suggested that discrimination factors could vary linearly with the diet isotopic ratio. If this linear relationship could be demonstrated using regression, this would provide an adequate method for the estimation of discrimination factors. In order to understand how diet isotopic ratios affect the discrimination factor, we investigated the pattern of its change in nitrogen (Δ15N) and carbon (Δ13C) in different tissues (liver, muscle and hair) of an omnivore species, the rat Rattus rattus. We fed captive rats with diets of the same nutritional quality but on different isotopic ratios. 4First, discrimination factors for Δ15N and Δ13C showed great variability, ranging from –1·46‰ to 4·59‰ and from –8·79‰ to 0·64‰, respectively. Discrimination factors depended on both diet isotopic ratio and tissue. 5We also show that isotope ratios in shaved hairs showed a turnover during the first month, and then stabilized during the second month. Using shaved hairs has the potential to be an effective non-lethal method for determining resource shifts in non-specialist consumers. 6Finally, we demonstrated, for all tissues, a decrease of Δ15N and Δ13C with an increased values of δ15N and δ13C, respectively. These relationships allow us to propose a framework to estimate discrimination factors from diet isotopic ratios by means of regression models.

Introduced vertebrate predators are one of the most important threats to endemic species throughout a range of ecosystems, in particular on islands in biodiversity hot spots. Consequently, the reduction of predator numbers is considered a key conservation action in the management of many native vertebrates vulnerable to predators. It is now established that control attempts may affect non-target species through trophic interactions, but little is known concerning their consequences on competitive relationships. We study a mathematical model mimicking the effects of controlling introduced species in the presence of their competitors. We used two competing rodents to illustrate our study: black rats, Rattus rattus, and mice, Mus musculus. Analyses of the model show that control of only one introduced species logically results in the dramatic increase of the overlooked competitor. We present empirical data that confirm our theoretical predictions. Less intuitively, this process, which we term ‘the competitor release effect’, may also occur when both introduced competitors are simultaneously controlled. In our setting, controlling both predators can promote their coexistence. This occurs as soon as the inferior competitor benefits from the differential effect of the simultaneous control of both competitors, that is, when the indirect positive effect of control (the removal of their competitors) exceeds its direct negative effect (their own removal). Both control levels and target specificity have a direct influence on the extent of this process: counter-intuitively, the stronger and more specific the control, the greater the effect. The theoretical validation of the competitor release effect has important implications in conservation, especially for control management.

Allee effects, strongly related to the extinction vulnerability of populations and gradually becoming acknowledged by both theoretically oriented and applied ecologists, have already been shown to have important roles in the dynamics of many populations. Although not yet widely recognized, two or more Allee effects can occur simultaneously in the same population. Here, we review the evidence for multiple Allee effects and show that their interactions can take several forms, many of which are far from inconsequential. We suggest that more research is needed to assess the prevalence and interactions of multiple Allee effects, as failing to take them into account could have adverse conse- quences for the management of threatened or exploited populations.

International audience; Ants figure prominently among the worst invasive species because of their enormous ecological and economic impacts. However, it remains to be investigated which species would be behaviourally dominant when confronted with another invasive ant species, should two species be introduced in the same area. In the future, many regions might have suitable environmental conditions for several invasive ant species, as predicted under climate change scenarios. Here, we explored interactions among several highly invasive ant species, which have been shown to have overlapping suitable areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance in interference competition of seven of the world's worst invasive ant species (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata and Pheidole megacephala). We conducted pairwise confrontations, testing the behaviour of each species against each of the six other species (in total 21 dyadic confrontations). We used single worker confrontations and group interactions of 10 versus 10 individuals to establish a dominance hierarchy among these invasive ant species. We discovered two different behavioural strategies among these invasive ants: three species displayed evasive or indifferent behaviour when individuals or groups were confronted (A. gracilipes, Pa. longicornis, M. rubra), while the four remaining species were highly aggressive during encounters and formed a linear dominance hierarchy. These findings contrast with the widespread view that invasive ants form a homogeneous group of species displaying the `invasive syndrome', which includes generally aggressive behaviour. The dominance hierarchy among the four aggressive species may be used to predict the outcome of future competitive interactions under some circumstances. Yet, the existence of several behavioural strategies renders such a prediction less straightforward.

We appreciate that Barot and coworkers [1] recognize that our proposed model [2] advocates the end of the linear model of research. We indeed highlighted the importance of feedback mechanisms and multi-level integration in this model to illustrate the interdependency of the different types of research. However, Barot and colleagues appear to go a step further and essentially argue that the distinction between fundamental and applied ecology has little justification. They propose that ecological sciences should become an unpolarized discipline that uses fundamental knowledge of ecology and social sciences to tackle environmental issues.

Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080 s. These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

International audience; Ants are among the most problematic invasive species. They displace numerous native species, alter ecosystem processes, and can have negative impacts on agriculture and human health. In part, their success might stem from a departure from the discovery-dominance trade-off that can promote co-existence in native ant communities, that is, invasive ants are thought to be at the same time behaviorally dominant and faster discoverers of resources, compared to native species. However, it has not yet been tested whether similar asymmetries in behavioral dominance, exploration, and recruitment abilities also exist among invasive species. Here, we establish a dominance hierarchy among four of the most problematic invasive ants (Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata, Pheidole megacephala) that may be able to arrive and establish in the same areas in the future. To assess behavioral dominance, we used confrontation experiments, testing the aggressiveness in individual and group interactions between all species pairs. In addition, to compare discovery efficiency, we tested the species' capacity to locate a food resource in a maze, and the capacity to recruit nestmates to exploit a food resource. The four species differed greatly in their capacity to discover resources and to recruit nestmates and to dominate the other species. Our results are consistent with a discovery-dominance trade-off. The species that showed the highest level of interspecific aggressiveness and dominance during dyadic interactions.

The topics assessed in this chapter were last assessed by the IPCC in 2007, principally in WGII AR4 Chapters 3 (Kundzewicz et al., 2007) and 4 (Fischlin et al., 2007), but also in WGII AR4 Sections 1.3.4 and 1.3.5 (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). The WGII AR4 SPM stated “Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases,” though they noted that documentation of observed changes in tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere was sparse (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). Fischlin et al. (2007) found that 20 to 30% of the plant and animal species that had been assessed to that time were considered to be at increased risk of extinction if the global average temperature increase exceeds 2°C to 3°C above the preindustrial level with medium confidence, and that substantial changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems are very likely under that degree of warming and associated atmospheric CO2 concentration. No time scale was associated with these findings. The carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems were considered to be at high risk from climate change and land use change. The report warned that the capacity of ecosystems to adapt naturally to the combined effect of climate change and other stressors is likely to be exceeded if greenhouse gas (GHG) emission continued at or above the then-current rate.

International audience; The primary reasons for conducting fundamental research are satisfying curiosity, acquiring knowledge, and achieving understanding. Here we develop why we believe it is essential to promote basic ecological research, despite increased impetus for ecologists to conduct and present their research in the light of potential applications. This includes the understanding of our environment, for intellectual, economical, social, and political reasons, and as a major source of innovation. We contend that we should focus less on short-term, objective-driven research and more on creativity and exploratory analyses, quantitatively estimate the benefits of fundamental research for society, and better explain the nature and importance of fundamental ecology to students, politicians, decision makers, and the general public. Our perspective and underlying arguments should also apply to evolutionary biology and to many of the other biological and physical sciences.

Valery et al. recently proposed to end the field of Invasion Biology on the grounds that it is based on an inadequate definition of the concept of biological invasion and that, as exotic species, native species should also be called invasive whenever they outbreak. We argue, on the contrary, that the sudden demographic dominance of native species cannot be termed invasion. Moreover, we claim that the suggestion of ending a fruitful and useful discipline because it does not conform to a subjective definition or because it still encompasses some debatable ideas and unresolved questions is both irrelevant and excessive. We believe that the thousands of researchers working in this discipline do not perform nonsensical science, and that their efforts to understand and limit biological invasions are compatible with debating on the key concept of that field.

This Article originally suggested that readers may be able to source PDF files of the papers analysed via a website that is involved in litigation over breach of copyright. This suggestion and the related URL have now been removed.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is often advocated as a tool to assist decision-making in conservation investment and research focus. It is frequently suggested that research efforts should prioritize species in higher threat categories and those that are Data Deficient (DD). We assessed the linkage between IUCN listing and research effort in DD and Critically Endangered (CR) species, two groups generally advocated as research priorities. The analysis of the change in the research output following species classification indicated a listing effect in DD species, while such effect was observed in only a minority of CR species groups. DD species, while chronically understudied, seem to be recognized as research priorities, while research effort for endangered species appears to be driven by various factors other than the IUCN listing. Optimized conservation research focus would require international science planning efforts, harmonized through international mechanisms and promoted by financial and other incentives.

The painted hunting dog or African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, is one of the most endangered large carnivores in Africa, with extinction predicted within a few decades if their dramatic decline is not stopped. It has recently been hypothesized that because of their constraining need for helpers, group size was of major importance in obligate cooperative breeding species, and that the resulting likely existence of a threshold number of adults could create an Allee effect, increasing the group extinction risk. One example where the importance for a critical number of adults may have major repercussions for painted hunting dogs concerns baby-sitting, or pup-guarding, a behavior typical of obligate cooperative breeders. We propose that, as forgoing this behavior is costly because pup guards have the potential to decrease pup mortality, its use is costly too, especially in small packs, because helpers are strongly needed for their cooperative foraging (hunting, protecting the kill and bringing back food to the pups). We present a simple model showing how pup-guarding imposes a cost because it implies that less food per hunt is brought back to more individuals at the den. We complete these analyses with empirical tests of the effect of pack size on the probability of pup-guarding, from field data from the Hwange population in Zimbabwe. Our model, as well as our 5 years of empirical data, both suggest a critical threshold at a size of about five individuals. Key words: African wild dog conservation, Allee effect, cooperative hunting, inverse density dependence, Lycaon pictus, painted hunting dog, pup-guarding. [Behav Ecol 13:20–27 (2002)]

Rabbits are considered by biologists to be among the worst invasive species. Their impact on invaded ecosystems, epitomized in Australia and on islands worldwide (e.g. North, Bullock & Dulloo, 1994; Williams et al., 1995; Burbidge & Moris, 2001; Garzon-Machado et al., 2010), has earned them a well-deserved place in the infamous Invasive Species Specialist Group’s ‘100 of the Worst Invasive Alien Species’ list. Rabbits are capable of profoundly altering communities, ecosystems and landscapes by sapping biodiversity and biomass from the basic trophic levels of often fragile ecosystems. However, they also have more complex, and hitherto seldom documented effects on higher trophic levels (Zedler & Black, 1992; Priddel, Carlile & Wheeler, 2000; Oliver, LuqueLarena & Lambin, 2009; Denyer, Hartley & John, 2010). In the context of a few, but loud voices attempting to question the importance of alien invasive species (but see Lambertini et al., 2011; Lockwood, Hoopes & Marchetti, 2011), the paper by Brodier et al. (2011) is well timed. It reminds us that restoration ecology and the fight against biodiversity loss are possible, in particular on islands, as they generally have many endemic and threatened species. This paper also highlights two very important, yet previously overlooked points. The first is the importance of longterm follow-up after restoration programmes. The second is the need to consider the indirect (and consequently often hidden) effects that alien invasive species can have on seemingly unconnected species. By monitoring the populations, several petrel species and their avian predator (the brown skua, Catharacta skua) following the removal of rabbits, Brodier et al. (2011) show that rabbits compete for space with blue petrels, Halobaena caerulea. Following rabbit eradication, the competition for burrows was removed and the blue petrel population increased up to eightfold in a few generations. Brown skua also increased their survivorship in response to the increase in its main prey, the blue petrel. Interestingly, the population of another petrel, the Antarctic prion, Pachyptila desolata, was also impacted by the rabbits. Following the eradication, the Antarctic prion population declined fourfold (to exclusion) in areas of deep soil and remained stable where the soil was too shallow for blue petrel (and rabbits). The resulting system, illustrated in Fig. 1, shows that one unexpected, and up to now unreported, effect of rabbits was to erode the niche partitioning of nesting seabirds on the island. Removing the rabbits led to both a competitor release (of the blue petrel, freed from the competition with rabbits) and to an apparent competitor release (of the shared predator, the brown skua, boosted by increased blue petrel availability). The combination of direct and indirect interactions restricted Antarctic prions to shallow soil areas, less favoured by the blue petrel. This neat system shows how alien invasive species can have effects beyond the trophic level constituting their resources. The contrast between the spectacular recovery of the blue petrel, the increased survival but stable number of skua breeding pairs and the decrease of the Antarctic prion also illustrates well the difficulties to forecast outcomes that conservation program may face even in relatively simple trophic webs. This is especially so in the current context of global climate change, which already affects subantarctic islands (Chapuis, Frenot & Lebouvier, 2004; Dowding et al., 2009), and which could have played a role in the system, for example, in the delayed recovery of the skua. Monitoring population densities, survival and predator diet, every year, on this remote, far reaching island, for long after the rabbit eradication might have been seen as a risky bet. As it turned out, the bet paid off, in the best currency ever: knowledge and understanding. Deciphering the indirect effects a terrestrial herbivore can have on a community of seabirds with which they have few interactions if any, is crucial in our battle against alien invasive species (Bergstrom et al., 2009; Genovesi, 2011). It demonstrates very well that if we were to ‘judge alien species only on their effects’, we would miss all but the tip of the iceberg and would allow important but unapparent, indirect effects of alien invasive species on native ecosystems. One regret from this study is that the monitoring effort conducted after rabbit eradication was not also implemented Animal Conservation. Print ISSN 1367-9430

International audience; AimGlobal changes are predicted to have severe consequences for biodiversity; 34 biodiversity hotspots have become international priorities for conservation, with important efforts allocated to their preservation, but the potential effects of global changes on hotspots have so far received relatively little attention. We investigate whether hotspots are quantitatively and qualitatively threatened to the same order of magnitude by the combined effects of global changes. LocationWorldwide, in 34 biodiversity hotspots. MethodsWe quantify (1) the exposure of hotspots to climate change, by estimating the novelty of future climates and the disappearance of extant climates using climate dissimilarity analyses, (2) each hotspot's vulnerability to land modification and degradation by quantifying changes in land-cover variables over the entire habitat, and (3) the future suitability of distribution ranges of 100 of the world's worst invasive alien species', by characterizing the combined effects of climate and land-use changes on the future distribution ranges of these species. ResultsOur findings show that hotspots may experience an average loss of 31% of their area under analogue climate, with some hotspots more affected than others (e.g. Polynesia-Micronesia). The greatest climate change was projected in low-latitude hotspots. The hotspots were on average suitable for 17% of the considered invasive species. Hotspots that are mainly islands or groups of islands were disproportionally suitable for a high number of invasive species both currently and in the future. We also showed that hotspots will increase their area of pasture in the future. Finally, combining the three threats, we identified the Atlantic forest, Cape Floristic Region and Polynesia-Micronesia as particularly vulnerable to global changes. Main conclusionsGiven our estimates of hotspot vulnerability to changes, close monitoring is now required to evaluate the biodiversity responses to future changes and to test our projections against observations.