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Presents a letter to the editor regarding an article which appeared in a previous issue of the "British Medical Journal" and discussed the prognosis for South Asian and white patients with heart failure in Great Britain.

Addresses the number of anaemia cases among Chinese, South Asian, and European populations. Details of a study conducted in Newcastle upon Tyne, Great Britain; Methods; Results, including how haemoglobin was reported lowest in men or European origin and highest in those of Chinese origin; Conclusion.

A response by Louise Hayes and colleagues to a letter to the editor about their article "Patterns of physical activity and relationship with risk markers for cardiovascular disease and diabetes in Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and European adults in a UK population" in the 2002 issue is presented.

A letter to the editor is presented in response to article "If the NHS Introduced a "50 Procedures a Year" Policy, What Proportion of Consultant Firms Would Be Affected," by A. Rouse and colleagues in the 2001 issue.

In this article the authors discuss the long term monitoring of health inequalities in Scotland and the article "Best Practice Guidelines for Monitoring Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health Status: Lessons from Scotland" by J. Frank and S. Haw. They are critical of several points which are raised in Frank and Haw's article and are supportive of a long term health inequalities monitoring initiative developed by the Scottish government.

Background: Clinicians are less likely to prescribe guideline-recommended treatments to people with multimorbidity than to people with a single condition. Doubts as to the applicability of clinical trials of drug treatments (the gold standard for evidence-based medicine) when people have co-existing diseases (comorbidity) may underlie this apparent reluctance. Therefore, for a range of index conditions, we measured the comorbidity among participants in clinical trials of novel drug therapies and compared this to the comorbidity among patients in the community.Methods: Data from industry-sponsored phase 3/4 multicentre trials of novel drug therapies for chronic medical conditions were identified from two repositories: Clinical Study Data Request and the Yale University Open Data Access project. We identified 116 trials (n = 122,969 participants) for 22 index conditions. Community patients were identified from a nationally representative sample of 2.3 million patients in Wales, UK. Twenty-one comorbidities were identified from medication use based on pre-specified definitions. We assessed the prevalence of each comorbidity and the total number of comorbidities (level of multimorbidity), for each trial and in community patients.Results: In the trials, the commonest comorbidities in order of declining prevalence were chronic pain, cardiovascular disease, arthritis, affective disorders, acid-related disorders, asthma/COPD and diabetes. These conditions were also common in community-based patients. Mean comorbidity count for trial participants was approximately half that seen in community-based patients. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion of trial participants had a high degree of multimorbidity. For example, in asthma and psoriasis trials, 10-15% of participants had ≥ 3 conditions overall, while in osteoporosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease trials 40-60% of participants had ≥ 3 conditions overall.Conclusions: Comorbidity and multimorbidity are less common in trials than in community populations with the same index condition. Comorbidity and multimorbidity are, nevertheless, common in trials. This suggests that standard, industry-funded clinical trials are an underused resource for investigating treatment effects in people with comorbidity and multimorbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent clinical trials of new glucose-lowering treatments have drawn attention to the importance of hospitalization for heart failure as a complication of diabetes mellitus. However, the epidemiology is not well described, particularly for type 1 diabetes mellitus. We examined the incidence and case-fatality of heart failure hospitalizations in the entire population aged ≥30 years resident in Scotland during 2004 to 2013.Methods: Date and type of diabetes mellitus diagnosis were linked to heart failure hospitalizations and deaths using the national Scottish registers. Incidence rates and case-fatality were estimated in regression models (quasi-Poisson and logistic regression respectively). All estimates are adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and calendar-year.Results: Over the 10-year period of the study, among 3.25 million people there were 91, 429, 22 959, and 1313 incident heart failure events among those without diabetes mellitus, with type 2, and type 1 diabetes mellitus, respectively. The crude incidence rates of heart failure hospitalization were therefore 2.4, 12.4, and 5.6 per 1000 person-years for these 3 groups. Heart failure hospitalization incidence was higher in people with diabetes mellitus, regardless of type, than in people without. Relative differences were smallest for older men, in whom the difference was nonetheless large (men aged 80, rate ratio 1.78; 95% CI, 1.45-2.19). Rates declined similarly, by 0.2% per calendar-year, in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus and without diabetes mellitus. Rates fell faster, however, in those with type 1 diabetes mellitus (2.2% per calendar-year, rate ratio for type 1/calendar-year interaction 0.978; 95% CI, 0.959-0.998). Thirty-day case-fatality was similar among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus and without diabetes mellitus, but was higher in type 1 diabetes mellitus for men (odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.96) and women (odds ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.98). Case-fatality declined over time for all groups (3.3% per calendar-year, odds ratio per calendar-year 0.967; 95% CI, 0.961-0.973).Conclusions: Despite falling incidence, particularly in type 1 diabetes mellitus, heart failure remains ≈2-fold higher than in people without diabetes mellitus, with higher case-fatality in those with type 1 diabetes mellitus. These findings support the view that heart failure is an under-recognized and important complication in diabetes mellitus, particularly for type 1 disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Concerns have been raised about the safety of surgery for stress urinary incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse using transvaginal mesh. We assessed adverse outcomes after first, single mesh procedures and comparable non-mesh procedures.Methods: We did a cohort study of women in Scotland aged 20 years or older undergoing a first, single incontinence procedure or prolapse procedure during 1997-98 to 2015-16 identified from a national hospital admission database. Primary outcomes were immediate postoperative complications and subsequent (within 5 years) readmissions for later postoperative complications, further incontinence surgery, or further prolapse surgery. Poisson regression models were used to compare outcomes after procedures carried out with and without mesh.Findings: Between April 1, 1997, and March 31, 2016, 16 660 women underwent a first, single incontinence procedure, 13 133 (79%) of which used mesh. Compared with non-mesh open surgery (colposuspension), mesh procedures had a lower risk of immediate complications (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 0·44 [95% CI 0·36-0·55]) and subsequent prolapse surgery (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0·30 [0·24-0·39]), and a similar risk of further incontinence surgery (0·90 [0·73-1·11]) and later complications (1·12 [0·98-1·27]); all ratios are for retropubic mesh. During the same time period, 18 986 women underwent a first, single prolapse procedure, 1279 (7%) of which used mesh. Compared with non-mesh repair, mesh repair of anterior compartment prolapse was associated with a similar risk of immediate complications (aRR 0·93 [95% CI 0·49-1·79]); an increased risk of further incontinence (aIRR 3·20 [2·06-4·96]) and prolapse surgery (1·69 [1·29-2·20]); and a substantially increased risk of later complications (3·15 [2·46-4·04]). Compared with non-mesh repair, mesh repair of posterior compartment prolapse was associated with a similarly increased risk of repeat prolapse surgery and later complications. No difference in any outcome was observed between vaginal and, separately, abdominal mesh repair of vaginal vault prolapse compared with vaginal non-mesh repair.Interpretation: Our results support the use of mesh procedures for incontinence, although further research on longer term outcomes would be beneficial. Mesh procedures for anterior and posterior compartment prolapse cannot be recommended for primary prolapse repair. Both vaginal and abdominal mesh procedures for vaginal vault prolapse repair are associated with similar effectiveness and complication rates to non-mesh vaginal repair. These results therefore do not clearly favour any particular vault repair procedure.Funding: None. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies rely on self-reported smoking status. We hypothesized that patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a smoking-related condition, would be more prone to misclassify themselves as ex-smokers, because of pressure to quit. We compared patients admitted with ACS with a general population survey conducted in the same country at a similar time. We determined whether ACS patients who classified themselves as ex-smokers (n = 635) were more likely to have cotinine levels suggestive of smoking deception than self-reported ex-smokers in the general population (n = 289). On univariate analysis, the percentage of smoking deceivers was similar among ACS patients and the general population (11% vs. 12%, p = .530). Following adjustment for age, sex and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, ACS patients were significantly more likely to misclassify themselves (adjusted OR = 14.06, 95% CI 2.13-93.01, p = .006). There was an interaction with age whereby the probability of misclassification fell significantly with increasing age in the ACS group (adjusted OR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, p<.001), but not in the general population. Overall, smoking deception was more common among ACS patients than the general population. Studies comparing patients with cardiovascular disease and healthy individuals risk introducing bias if they rely solely on self-reported smoking status. Biochemical confirmation should be undertaken in such studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: 'Improvement science' is used to describe specific quality improvement methods (including tests of change and statistical process control). The approach is spreading from clinical settings to population-wide interventions and is being extended from supporting the adoption of proven interventions to making generalisable claims about new interventions. The objective of this narrative review is to evaluate the strengths and risks of current improvement science practice, particularly in relation to how they might be used in population health., Methods: A purposive sampling of published studies to identify how improvement science methods are being used and for what purpose. The setting was Scotland and studies that focused on health and wellbeing outcomes., Results: We have identified a range of improvement science approaches which provide practitioners with accessible tools to assess small-scale changes in policy and practice. The strengths of such approaches are that they facilitate consistent implementation of interventions already known to be effective and motivate and empower staff to make local improvements. However, we also identified a number of potential risks. In particular, their use to assess the effectiveness of new interventions often seems to pay insufficient attention to random variation, measurement bias, confounding and ethical issues., Conclusions: The use of current improvement science methods to generate evidence of effectiveness for population-wide interventions is problematic and risks unjustified claims of effectiveness, inefficient resource use and harm to those not offered alternative effective interventions. Newer methodological approaches offer alternatives and should be more widely considered.

Background: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality and can enable comprehensive, and comparable, assessments of direct and indirect health harms due to COVID-19. Our aim was to estimate DALYs directly due to COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020; and contextualise its population impact relative to other causes of disease and injury., Methods: National deaths and daily case data were used. Deaths were based on underlying and contributory causes recorded on death certificates. We calculated DALYs based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network. DALYs were presented as a range, using a sensitivity analysis based on Years of Life Lost estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths. All COVID-19 estimates were for 2020., Results: In 2020, estimates of COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland ranged from 96,500 to 108,200. Direct COVID-19 DALYs were substantial enough to be framed as the second leading cause of disease and injury, with only ischaemic heart disease having a larger impact on population health. Mortality contributed 98% of total DALYs., Conclusions: The direct population health impact of COVID-19 has been very substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, COVID-19 developed from a single identified case in early 2020 to a condition with an impact in Scotland second only to ischaemic heart disease. Periodic estimation of DALYs during 2021, and beyond, will provide indications of the impact of DALYs averted due to the national rollout of the vaccination programme and other continued mitigation efforts, although new variants may pose significant challenges., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Understanding trends in the incidence and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke, and how these are influenced by changes in cardiovascular risk factors can inform health policy and healthcare provision., Methods: We identified all patients 30 years or older with myocardial infarction or stroke in Scotland. Risk factor levels were determined from national health surveys. Incidence, potential impact fractions and burden attributable to risk factor changes were calculated. Risk of subsequent fatal and non-fatal events (myocardial infarction, stroke, bleeding and heart failure hospitalization) were calculated with multi-state models., Findings: From 1990 to 2014, there were 372,873 (71±13 years) myocardial infarctions and 290,927 (74±13 years) ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes. Age-standardized incidence per 100,000 fell from 1,069 (95% confidence interval, 1,024-1,116) to 276 (263-290) for myocardial infarction and from 608 (581-636) to 188 (178-197) for ischemic stroke. Systolic blood pressure, smoking and cholesterol decreased, but body-mass index increased, and diabetes prevalence doubled. Changes in risk factors accounted for a 74% (57-91%) reduction in myocardial infarction and 68% (55-83%) reduction in ischemic stroke. Following myocardial infarction, the risk of death decreased (30% to 20%), but non-fatal events increased (20% to 24%) whereas the risk of both death (47% to 34%) and non-fatal events (22% to 17%) decreased following stroke., Interpretation: Over the last 25 years, substantial reductions in myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke incidence are attributable to major shifts in risk factor levels. Deaths following the index event decreased for both myocardial infarction and stroke, but rates remained substantially higher for stroke., Funding: British heart foundation., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19.  As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs. Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count. Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2020 Hanlon P et al.)

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of the study was to examine trends in the incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and in hospital admissions for angina and coronary revascularisation procedures in people with type 2 diabetes and in people without diabetes in Scotland between 2006 and 2015., Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, AMI, angina and revascularisation event data were obtained for adults from hospital admissions and death records linked to a population-based diabetes register. Incidence by diabetes status was estimated using negative binomial models with adjustment or stratification by age, sex, deprivation and calendar year. Logistic regression was used to estimate AMI case fatality by diabetes status., Results: There were 129,926 incident AMI events, 41,263 angina admissions and 69,875 coronary revascularisation procedures carried out during 34.9 million person-years of follow-up. The adjusted incidence of AMI, angina and revascularisation procedures declined by 2.0% (95% CI 1.73%, 2.26%), 9.62% (95% CI 9.22%, 10.01%) and 0.35% (95% CI -0.09%, 0.79%) per year, respectively. The rate of decline did not differ materially by diabetes status. RRs of AMI for type 2 diabetes were 1.86 (95% CI 1.74, 1.98) for men and 2.32 (95% CI 2.15, 2.51) for women. Of the 77,211 people admitted to hospital with a first AMI, 7842 (10.2%) died within 30 days of admission. Case fatality was higher in people with type 2 diabetes than in people without diabetes and declined in both groups by 7.93% (95% CI 7.03%, 8.82%) per year., Conclusions/interpretation: The incidence of AMI, angina, revascularisation and AMI case fatality has declined over time, but the increased risk associated with type 2 diabetes has remained approximately constant.

Background: Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) remains common. If detected early, DDH can usually be corrected with conservative management. Late presentations often require surgery and have worse outcomes., Objective: We estimated the risk of undergoing surgery for DDH by age 3 years before and after the introduction of enhanced DDH detection services., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: Scotland, 1997/98-2010/11., Patients: All children., Methods: Using routinely collected national hospital discharge records, we examined rates of first surgery for DDH by age 3 by March 2014. Using a difference in difference analysis, we compared rates in two areas of Scotland before (to April 2002) and after (from April 2005) implementation of enhanced DDH detection services to those seen in the rest of Scotland., Results: For children born in the study period, the risk of first surgery for DDH by age 3 was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.26) per 1000 live births (918/777 375).Prior to April 2002, the risk of surgery was 1.13 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.42) and 1.31 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.46) per 1000 live births in the intervention and non-intervention areas, respectively. In the intervention areas, from April 2005, this risk halved (RR 0.47; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.68). The risk remained unchanged in other areas (RR 1.01; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.18). The ratio for the difference in change of risk was 0.46 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.70)., Conclusions: The implementation of enhanced DDH detection services can produce substantial reductions in the number of children having surgical correction for DDH., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Aims/hypothesis: The relative contribution of increasing incidence and declining mortality to increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Scotland is unclear. Trends in incidence and mortality rates are described for type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013 by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation., Methods: Data for incident and prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were obtained from the Scottish national diabetes register with number of deaths identified from linkage to mortality records. Population size and death data for Scotland by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates stratified by year and deciles of socioeconomic status were calculated using Poisson models., Results: There were 180,290 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013. Overall, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable over time and was 4.88 (95% CI 4.84, 4.90) and 3.33 (3.28, 3.32) per 1000 in men and women, respectively. However, incidence increased among young men, remained stable in young women, and declined in older men and women. Incidence rates declined in all socioeconomic groups but increased after 2008 in the most deprived groups. Standardised mortality ratios associated with diabetes, adjusted for age and socioeconomic group, were 1.38 (1.36, 1.41) in men and 1.49 (1.45, 1.52) in women, and remained constant over time., Conclusions/interpretation: Incidence of type 2 diabetes has stabilised in recent years suggesting that increasing prevalence may be primarily attributed to declining mortality. Prevention of type 2 diabetes remains important, particularly among socioeconomically deprived populations., Competing Interests: Funding SHR is supported by a Chief Scientist Office post-doctoral fellowship. Funding for diabetes register linkage was provided by the Scottish Government. The Scottish Diabetes Research Network receives financial support from NHS Research Scotland. Duality of interest SHW received an honorarium from Global MedEd/Astra Zeneca in September 2014 for contributing a lecture to a series of educational videos aimed at primary care professionals and specialists in the Middle East. RMcC has received personal fees from NovoNordisk and Sanofi Aventis for being on advisory boards outside of this submitted work. HC has received grants and personal fees from Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly & Company, Roche Pharmaceuticals, Boehringer Ingelheim and Astra Zeneca outside of this submitted work. DMcA received personal fees from Roche for delivering a tutorial to health professionals. All other authors declare that there is no duality of interest associated with their contribution to this manuscript. Contribution statement The study was conceived by SHW and SHR; data preparation and statistical analyses were carried out by JJK. JJK and SHR wrote the first draft of the paper. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the findings and the paper’s critical revision. All authors have approved the final version of the manuscript. SHR is responsible for the integrity of the work as a whole.

Background: Effective interventions are available to reduce cardiovascular risk. Recently, health check programmes have been implemented to target those at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but there is much debate whether these are likely to be effective at population level. This paper evaluates the impact of wave 1 of Keep Well, a Scottish health check programme, on cardiovascular outcomes., Methods: Interrupted time series analyses were employed, comparing trends in outcomes in participating and non-participating practices before and after the introduction of health checks. Health outcomes are defined as CVD mortality, incident hospitalisations and prescribing of cardiovascular drugs., Results: After accounting for secular trends and seasonal variation, coronary heart disease mortality and hospitalisations changed by 0.4% (95% CI -5.2% to 6.3%) and -1.1% (-3.4% to 1.3%) in Keep Well practices and by -0.3% (-2.7% to 2.2%) and -0.1% (-1.8% to 1.7%) in non-Keep Well practices, respectively, following the intervention. Adjusted changes in prescribing in Keep Well and non-Keep Well practices were 0.4% (-10.4% to 12.5%) and -1.5% (-9.4% to 7.2%) for statins; -2.5% (-12.3% to 8.4%) and -1.6% (-7.1% to 4.3%) for antihypertensive drugs; and -0.9% (-6.5% to 5.0%) and -2.4% (-10.1% to 6.0%) for antiplatelet drugs., Conclusions: Any impact of the Keep Well health check intervention on CVD outcomes and prescribing in Scotland was very small. Findings do not support the use of the screening approach used by current health check programmes to address CVD. We used an interrupted time series method, but evaluation methods based on randomisation are feasible and preferable and would have allowed more reliable conclusions. These should be considered more often by policymakers at an early stage in programme design when there is uncertainty regarding programme effectiveness., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

There are an increasing number of clinical, administrative and trial databases that can be used for research. These are particularly valuable if there are opportunities for linkage to other databases. This paper describes examples of the use of large diabetes databases for research. It reviews the advantages and disadvantages of using large diabetes databases for research and suggests solutions for some challenges. Large, high-quality databases offer potential sources of information for research at relatively low cost. Fundamental issues for using databases for research are the completeness of capture of cases within the population and time period of interest and accuracy of the diagnosis of diabetes and outcomes of interest. The extent to which people included in the database are representative should be considered if the database is not population based and there is the intention to extrapolate findings to the wider diabetes population. Information on key variables such as date of diagnosis or duration of diabetes may not be available at all, may be inaccurate or may contain a large amount of missing data. Information on key confounding factors is rarely available for the nondiabetic or general population limiting comparisons with the population of people with diabetes. However comparisons that allow for differences in distribution of important demographic factors may be feasible using data for the whole population or a matched cohort study design. In summary, diabetes databases can be used to address important research questions. Understanding the strengths and limitations of this approach is crucial to interpret the findings appropriately., Competing Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article., (© 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.)

Aims/hypothesis: Potential differences in cardiovascular risk by ethnicity remain uncertain. We evaluated the association of ethnicity with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in a large cohort of people with type 2 diabetes living in Scotland., Methods: Data from Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCI-Diabetes) were linked to Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland data for mortality for dates between 2005 and 2011. Of 156,991 people with type 2 diabetes with coded ethnicity, 121,535 (77.4%) had no CVD at baseline (White: 114,461; Multiple Ethnic: 2,554; Indian: 797; Other Asian: 319; Pakistani: 2,250; Chinese: 387; African-Caribbean: 301 and Other: 466) and were followed up (mean ± SD: 4.8 ± 2.3 years) for the development of fatal and non-fatal CVD., Results: During follow-up, 16,265 (13.4%) patients developed CVD (ischaemic heart or cerebrovascular diseases). At baseline, Pakistanis were younger and had developed diabetes earlier, had higher HbA1c and longer duration of diabetes, but had lower BP, BMI, creatinine, proportion of smokers and proportion on antihypertensive therapy than whites. The age and sex adjusted HRs for CVD were HR 1.31 (CI 1.17, 1.47), p < 0.001 in Pakistanis and HR 0.66 (CI 0.47, 0.92), p = 0.014 in Chinese compared with whites. Adjusting additionally for an area measure of deprivation, duration of diabetes, conventional CVD and other risk factors, the HR for Pakistanis (HR 1.45 [CI 1.14, 1.85], p = 0.002) was significantly higher, and that for Chinese (HR = 0.58 [CI 0.24, 1.40], p = 0.228) lower, compared with whites., Conclusions/interpretation: Compared with whites with type 2 diabetes, those of Pakistani ethnicity in Scotland were at increased risk of CVD, whereas Chinese were at lower risk, with these differences unexplained by known risk factors.

Limited data on smoking prevalence allowing valid between-country comparison are available in Europe. The aim of this study is to provide data on smoking prevalence and its determinants in 18 European countries. In 2010, within the Pricing Policies And Control of Tobacco in Europe (PPACTE) project, we conducted a face-to-face survey on smoking in 18 European countries (Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, England, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden) on a total of 18 056 participants, representative for each country of the population aged 15 years or older. Overall, 27.2% of the participants were current smokers (30.6% of men and 24.1% of women). Smoking prevalence was highest in Bulgaria (40.9%) and Greece (38.9%) and lowest in Italy (22.0%) and Sweden (16.3%). Smoking prevalence ranged between 15.7% (Sweden) and 44.3% (Bulgaria) for men and between 11.6% (Albania) and 38.1% (Ireland) for women. Multivariate analysis showed a significant inverse trend between smoking prevalence and the level of education in both sexes. Male-to-female smoking prevalence ratios ranged from 0.85 in Spain to 3.47 in Albania and current-to-ex prevalence ratios ranged from 0.68 in Sweden to 4.28 in Albania. There are considerable differences across Europe in smoking prevalence, and male-to-female and current-to-ex smoking prevalence ratios. Eastern European countries, lower income countries and those with less advanced tobacco control policies have less favourable smoking patterns and are at an earlier stage of the tobacco epidemic.

Background: From 26 March 2006, smoking will be prohibited in wholly and substantially enclosed public places in Scotland, and it will be an offence to permit smoking or to smoke in no-smoking premises. We anticipate that implementation of the smoke-free legislation will result in significant health gains associated with reductions in exposure to both environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and personal tobacco consumption as well as other social and economic impacts., Methods: Health Scotland in conjunction with the Information Services Division (ISD) Scotland and the Scottish Executive have developed a comprehensive evaluation strategy to assess the expected short-term, intermediate and long-term outcomes. Using routine health, behavioural and economic data and commissioned research, we will assess the impact of the smoke-free legislation in eight key outcome areas--knowledge and attitudes, ETS exposure, compliance, culture, smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption, tobacco-related morbidity and mortality, economic impacts on the hospitality sector and health inequalities., Conclusion: The findings from this evaluation will make a significant contribution to the international understanding of the health effects of exposure to ETS and the broader social, cultural and economic impacts of smoke-free legislation.

Background: South Asian populations in the United Kingdom have a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Risk prediction models appear to be inaccurate in South Asians., Objective: To explore the predictive capacity of the FINRISK, Framingham (1991) and SCORE risk prediction models in the Newcastle Heart Project population (n = 1301)., Methods: Mortality data for England and Wales were used to define the expected ranking of CVD risk by country of birth. CVD mortality in the Newcastle Heart Project sample was examined. Risk factor measures were obtained from the Newcastle Heart Project, where 90 percent of South Asians were born in the Indian Subcontinent. The predicted outcomes for FINRISK were acute myocardial infarction and CHD mortality, for Framingham CHD mortality, myocardial infarction, new angina and coronary insufficiency and for SCORE CHD and non-CHD CVD mortality., Results: The FINRISK model predicted in South Asian men combined, compared with Europeans, a risk ratio of 122 per cent (SMR 142) with substantial subgroup heterogeneity, e.g. 154 per cent in Bangladeshis (SMR 151), 129 per cent in Pakistanis (SMR 148), 99 per cent in Indians (SMR 142). The FINRISK risk ratios for South Asian women combined were 160 per cent (SMR 145), for Bangladeshis 184 per cent (SMR 91), Pakistanis 172 per cent (SMR 111) and for Indians 145 per cent (SMR 158). The Framingham model results were very similar to FINRISK, but the SCORE model showed comparatively low 10 year risk in all South Asian groups. Both the Framingham stroke model and the SCORE non-CHD CVD model predicted comparatively low rates, while national data showed these to be high. Control of the five major risk factors was modelled by FINRISK to reduce risk by about 59 per cent in South Asian men and 67 per cent in South Asian women, with some subgroup heterogeneity, compared to 50 per cent in European men and 48 per cent in European women. The Framingham model results were similar. The absolute rates for each ethnic group varied by model., Conclusion: The Framingham and FINRISK models gave similar results, mostly following expected patterns, but the SCORE model did not, probably reflecting its lack of inclusion of HDL and diabetes as risk factors. National mortality data and modelled predictions agreed reasonably well for South Asians combined, and Bangladeshi and Pakistani men, but not for Indian men and Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. The varying rates show the limits of modelling. The models suggest the potential gains from controlling major established risk factors could be substantial in South Asians and greater than in Europeans.

Background: Differences in level of physical activity between European, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations living in the UK might contribute to differences in the prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk markers that exist in these populations., Methods: Type and level of physical activity (measured by a multidimensional index) and its relationship with selected cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk factors were assessed in a cross-sectional, population-based study of European, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi men and women, aged 25-75, resident in Newcastle upon Tyne., Results: Europeans were found to be more physically active than Indians, Pakistanis or Bangladeshis. On our physical activity index 52 per cent of European men did not meet current guidelines for participation in physical activity compared with 71 per cent of Indians, 88 per cent of Pakistanis and 87 per cent of Bangladeshis. Similar findings are reported for women. In particular, European men and women participated more frequently in moderate and vigorous sport and recreational activities. In general, level of physical activity was inversely correlated with body mass index (BMI), waist measurement, systolic blood pressure, and blood glucose and insulin in all ethnic groups, but did not correlate with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol., Conclusions: South Asians in Newcastle report significantly lower levels of habitual physical activity than Europeans. This is likely to contribute to the higher levels of diabetes and cardiovascular risk in these populations. Measures to increase physical activity in these populations are urgently needed.