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AIMS Aortic valve surgery in the presence of reduced ejection fraction (EF) or low transaortic gradient is associated with adverse outcome. Low gradient (LG) may be associated with reduced EF, known as low EF-low gradient (LEF-LG), or "paradoxically" low with normal EF (P-LG). Our aim was to investigate the impact of EF and transaortic gradient on outcome following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). METHODS AND RESULTS We retrospectively analysed the UK TAVI Registry from 2007 to 2011 (n=2,535 consecutive patients, mean age 81.3±7.5, logistic EuroSCORE 21.8±14). Thirty-day mortality was 7.8%, low EF (

Objective Existing clinical prediction models (CPM) for short-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have limited applicability in the UK due to moderate predictive performance and inconsistent recording practices across registries. The aim of this study was to derive a UK-TAVI CPM to predict 30-day mortality risk for benchmarking purposes. Methods A two-step modelling strategy was undertaken: first, data from the UK-TAVI Registry between 2009 and 2014 were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression CPM using backwards stepwise regression. Second, model-updating techniques were applied using the 2013–2014 data, thereby leveraging new approaches to include frailty and to ensure the model was reflective of contemporary practice. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping to estimate in-sample optimism-corrected performance. Results Between 2009 and 2014, up to 6339 patients were included across 34 centres in the UK-TAVI Registry (mean age, 81.3; 2927 female (46.2%)). The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.14%. The final UK-TAVI CPM included 15 risk factors, which included two variables associated with frailty. After correction for in-sample optimism, the model was well calibrated, with a calibration intercept of 0.02 (95% CI −0.17 to 0.20) and calibration slope of 0.79 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.03). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, after adjustment for in-sample optimism, was 0.66. Conclusion The UK-TAVI CPM demonstrated strong calibration and moderate discrimination in UK-TAVI patients. This model shows potential for benchmarking, but even the inclusion of frailty did not overcome the need for more wide-ranging data and other outcomes might usefully be explored.

NHS England report that the ambulance services attempt to resuscitate approximately 28 000 people from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest each year (approximately 1 per 2000 inhabitants per year).1 The rate of initial success (return of spontaneous circulation) was 25%, with less than half of those who are successfully resuscitated initially surviving to go home from hospital (survival to discharge 7%–8%, 2011–2014).1 (see figure 1). The survival rates contrast sharply with those observed in the best-performing emergency medical services systems, which have survival rates of 20%–25%.2–4 In 2013, the government's Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes Strategy for England set the ambitious, but achievable target of increasing survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by 50%, leading to an additional 1000 lives saved each year.

ObjectiveExisting clinical prediction models (CPMs) for short-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have limited applicability in the UK due to moderate predictive performance and inconsistent recording practices across registries. The aim of this study was to derive a UK-TAVI CPM to predict 30-day mortality risk, for benchmarking purposes.MethodsA two-step modelling strategy was undertaken: firstly, data from the UK TAVI registry between 2009 and 2014 were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression CPM using backwards stepwise regression. Secondly, model-updating techniques were applied using the 2013-14 data, thereby leveraging new approaches to include frailty and to ensure the model was reflective of contemporary practice. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping to estimate in-sample optimism-corrected performance.ResultsBetween 2009 and 2014, 6339 patients were included across 34 centres in the UK TAVI registry (mean age, 81.3; 2927 female [46.2%]). The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.14%. The final UK-TAVI CPM included 15 risk factors, which included two variables associated with frailty. After correction for in-sample optimism, the model was well calibrated, with a calibration intercept of 0.02 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.20) and calibration slope of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.55, 1.03). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, after adjustment for in-sample optimism, was 0.66.ConclusionThe UK-TAVI CPM demonstrated strong calibration and moderate discrimination in UK TAVI patients. This model shows potential for benchmarking, but even the inclusion of frailty did not overcome the need for more wide-ranging data and other outcomes might usefully be explored.

Background-Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is indicated for patients with aortic stenosis who are intermediatehigh surgical risk. Although all-cause mortality rates after TAVI are established, survival attributable to the procedure is unclear because of competing causes of mortality. The aim was to report relative survival (RS) after TAVI, which accounts for background mortality risks in a matched general population. Methods and Results-National cohort data (n=6420) from the 2007 to 2014 UK TAVI registry were matched by age, sex, and year to mortality rates for England and Wales (population, 57.9 million). The Ederer II method related observed patient survival to that expected from the matched general population. We modelled RS using a flexible parametric approach that modelled the log cumulative hazard using restricted cubic splines. RS of the TAVI cohort was 95.4%, 90.2%, and 83.8% at 30 days, 1 year, and 3 years, respectively. By 1-year follow-up, mortality hazards in the >85 years age group were not significantly different from those of the matched general population; by 3 years, survival rates were comparable. The flexible parametric RS model indicated that increasing age was associated with significantly lower excess hazards after the procedure; for example, by 2 years, a 5-year increase in age was associated with 20% lower excess mortality over the general population. Conclusions-RS after TAVI was high, and survival rates in those aged >85 years approximated those of a matched general population within 3 years. High rates of RS indicate that patients selected for TAVI tolerate the risks of the procedure well.

Background—\ud The radial artery is increasingly adopted as the primary access site for cardiac catheterization because of patient preference, lower bleeding rates, cost effectiveness, and reduced risk of mortality in high-risk patient groups. Concerns have been expressed that operators/centers have become increasingly unfamiliar with transfemoral access. The aim of this study was to assess whether a change in access site practice toward transradial access nationally has led to worse outcomes in percutaneous coronary intervention procedures performed through the transfemoral access approach.\ud \ud Methods and Results—\ud Using the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database, a retrospective analysis of 235 250 transfemoral access percutaneous coronary intervention procedures was undertaken in all 92 centers in England and Wales between 2007 and 2013. Recent femoral proportion and recent femoral volume were determined, and in-hospital vascular complications and 30-day mortality were evaluated. After case-mix adjustment, no independent association was observed between 30-day mortality for cases undertaken through the transfemoral access and center femoral proportion, the risk-adjusted odds ratio for recent femoral proportion was nonsignificant (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.97–1.02; P=0.472 per 0.1 increase in proportion), and similarly recent femoral volume (per 100 procedures) was not found to be significant (odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.01; P=0.869). The in-hospital vascular complication rate was 1.0%, and this outcome was not significantly associated with recent femoral proportion after risk-adjustment (odds ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.94–1.00; P=0.060 per 0.1 increase in proportion).\ud \ud Conclusions—\ud The outcome gains achieved by the national adoption of radial access are not associated with a loss of femoral proficiency, and centers should be encouraged to continue to adopt radial access as the default access site for percutaneous coronary intervention wherever possible in line with current best evidence.

Background - As coronary perforation (CP) is a rare but serious complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) the current evidence base is limited to small series. Using a national PCI database, the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of CP as a complication of PCI were defined. Methods and Results - Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society data set on all PCI procedures performed in England and Wales between 2006 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regressions and propensity scores were used to identify predictors of CP and its association with outcomes. In total, 1762 CPs were recorded from 527 121 PCI procedures (incidence of 0.33%). Patients with CP were more often women or older, with a greater burden of comorbidity and underwent more complex PCI procedures. Factors predictive of CP included age per year (odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% confidence intervals, 1.02-1.03; P

The impact of operator and centre volume on clinical outcomes and quality of care has been of considerable debate in recent years in a number of surgical- and procedural-based specialities. A relationship between higher volumes at both the institutional and operator levels and better clinical outcomes would at first appear intuitive, based on the premise that performing a procedure very infrequently would be likely to lead to unfamiliarity, complications, and poorer outcomes. In the current review, we study the relationship between operator volume and outcomes in the setting of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and examine the evidence for current clinical competency guidelines that advocate that a minimum number of PCI procedures be undertaken annually. Whilst both high institutional and operator volumes have been shown to be associated with better outcomes by reducing death and in-hospital mortality, these data are often derived from the pre-stent era, or when high-volume operators undertook far smaller numbers of procedures than is currently recommended to maintain clinical competency. The emphasis of specific volume requirements for optimal outcomes needs to be interpreted with caution, as volume is not a surrogate for quality and merely one of the variables associated with outcome. Healthcare providers should focus on other measures of quality such as robust clinical care pathways, evidence-based treatments, periodic case review, using validated risk assessment scores, and ascertainment of outcome to improve care and reduce adverse events.