151. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster on the Huaibei Plain of China Based on the Improved Connection Number and Entropy Information Diffusion Method
- Author
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Yi Cui, Juliang Jin, Yuliang Zhou, Shaowei Ning, Menglu Chen, and Chengguo Wu
- Subjects
agricultural drought disaster ,lcsh:Hydraulic engineering ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Aquatic Science ,01 natural sciences ,Biochemistry ,Irrigation water ,lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes ,lcsh:TC1-978 ,Resilience (network) ,China ,Risk management ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,lcsh:TD201-500 ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,business.industry ,risk assessment ,connection numbers ,Geography ,Agriculture ,Threatened species ,Connection number ,Risk assessment ,Water resource management ,business ,entropy information diffusion method - Abstract
In recent years, drought disaster has occurred frequently in China, causing significant agricultural losses. It is increasingly important to assess the risk of agricultural drought disaster (ADD) and to develop a targeted risk management approach. In this study, an ADD risk assessment model was established. First, an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on an accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA-FAHP) was used to build an evaluation indicator system. Then, based on the indicators, the ADD assessment connection numbers were established using the improved connection number method. Finally, the entropy information diffusion method was used to form an ADD risk assessment model. The model was applied to the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province (China), with the assessment showing that, in the period from 2008 to 2017, the plain was threatened continuously by ADD, especially during 2011&ndash, 2013. The risk assessment showed that southern cities of the study area were nearly twice as likely to be struck by ADD as northern cities. Meanwhile, the eastern region had a higher frequency of severe and above-grade ADD events (once every 21 years) than the western region (once every 25.3 years). Therefore, Huainan was identified as a high-risk city and Huaibei as a low-risk city, with Suzhou and Bengbu more vulnerable to ADD than Fuyang and Bozhou. Understanding the spatial dynamics of risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience by optimizing planting structures and by enhancing irrigation water efficiency. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency.
- Published
- 2020