151. Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China
- Author
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Xiangxue Zhang, Chengdong Xu, Jinjun Liang, Jinfeng Wang, and Gexin Xiao
- Subjects
Shigellosis ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Veterinary medicine ,China ,Meteorological Concepts ,spatial-temporal model ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,meteorological factors ,030231 tropical medicine ,lcsh:Medicine ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Spatio-Temporal Analysis ,Epidemiology ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Dysentery, Bacillary ,spatial-temporal risk ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,bacillary dysentery ,lcsh:R ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Bacillary dysentery ,Dysentery ,Bayes Theorem ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Menthol ,Geography ,Early warning system ,Public Health ,Risk assessment ,Forecasting - Abstract
Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.
- Published
- 2017