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Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

In this work, I evaluate the impact of species distribution models (SDMs) on the current status of environmental and ecological journals by asking the question to which degree development of SDMs in the literature is related to recent changes in the impact factors of ecological journals. The hypothesis evaluated states that research fronts are likely to attract research attention and potentially drive citation patterns, with journals concentrating papers related to the research front receiving more attention and benefiting from faster increases in their impact on the ecological literature. My results indicate a positive relationship between the number of SDM related articles published in a journal and its impact factor (IF) growth during the period 2000-09. However, the percentage of SDM related papers in a journal was strongly and positively associated with the percentage of papers on climate change and statistical issues. The results support the hypothesis that global change science has been critical in the development of SDMs and that interest in climate change research in particular, rather than the usage of SDM per se, appears as an important factor behind journal IF increases in ecology and environmental sciences. Finally, our results on SDM application in global change science support the view that scientific interest rather than methodological fashion appears to be the major driver of research attraction in the scientific literature.

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species' key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site), and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species' distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species' occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species) than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models.

Fire is a major agent involved in landscape transformation and an indirect cause of changes in species composition. Responses to fire may vary greatly depending on life histories and functional traits of species. We have examined the taxonomic and functional responses to fire of eight taxonomic animal groups displaying a gradient of dietary and mobility patterns: Gastropoda, Heteroptera, Formicidae, Coleoptera, Araneae, Orthoptera, Reptilia and Aves. The fieldwork was conducted in a Mediterranean protected area on 3 sites (one unburnt and two burnt with different postfire management practices) with five replicates per site. We collected information from 4606 specimens from 274 animal species. Similarity in species composition and abundance between areas was measured by the Bray-Curtis index and ANOSIM, and comparisons between animal and plant responses by Mantel tests. We analyze whether groups with the highest percentage of omnivorous species, these species being more generalist in their dietary habits, show weak responses to fire (i.e. more similarity between burnt and unburnt areas), and independent responses to changes in vegetation. We also explore how mobility, i.e. dispersal ability, influences responses to fire. Our results demonstrate that differences in species composition and abundance between burnt and unburnt areas differed among groups. We found a tendency towards presenting lower differences between areas for groups with higher percentages of omnivorous species. Moreover, taxa with a higher percentage of omnivorous species had significantly more independent responses of changes in vegetation. High- (e.g. Aves) and low-mobility (e.g. Gastropoda) groups had the strongest responses to fire (higher R scores of the ANOSIM); however, we failed to find a significant general pattern with all the groups according to their mobility. Our results partially support the idea that functional traits underlie the response of organisms to environmental changes caused by fire.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes., (© 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.)

We address criticism that the Transport, Establishment, Abundance, Spread, Impact (TEASI) framework does not facilitate objective mapping of risk assessment methods nor defines best practice. We explain why TEASI is appropriate for mapping, despite inherent challenges, and how TEASI offers considerations for best practices, rather than suggesting one best practice., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies.

Some alien species cause substantial impacts, yet most are innocuous. Given limited resources, forecasting risks from alien species will help prioritise management. Given that risk assessment (RA) approaches vary widely, a synthesis is timely to highlight best practices. We reviewed quantitative and scoring RAs, integrating > 300 publications into arguably the most rigorous quantitative RA framework currently existing, and mapping each study onto our framework, which combines Transport, Establishment, Abundance, Spread and Impact (TEASI). Quantitative models generally measured single risk components (78% of studies), often focusing on Establishment alone (79%). Although dominant in academia, quantitative RAs are underused in policy, and should be made more accessible. Accommodating heterogeneous limited data, combining across risk components, and developing generalised RAs across species, space and time without requiring new models for each species may increase attractiveness for policy applications. Comparatively, scoring approaches covered more risk components (50% examined > 3 components), with Impact being the most common component (87%), and have been widely applied in policy (> 57%), but primarily employed expert opinion. Our framework provides guidance for questions asked, combining scores and other improvements. Our risk framework need not be completely parameterised to be informative, but instead identifies opportunities for improvement in alien species RA., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.)

Biotic homogenization (BH) is a process whereby some species (losers) are systematically replaced by others (winners). While this process has been related to the effects of anthropogenic activities, whether and how BH is occurring across regions and the role of native species as a driver of BH has hardly been investigated. Here, we examine the trend in the community specialization index (CSI) for 234 native species of breeding birds at 10,111 sites in six European countries from 1990 to 2008. Unlike many BH studies, CSI uses abundance information to estimate the balance between generalist and specialist species in local assemblages. We show that bird communities are more and more composed of native generalist species across regions, revealing a strong, ongoing BH process. Our result suggests a rapid and non-random change in community composition at a continental scale is occurring, most likely driven by anthropogenic activities.

Here we review how adaptive traits contribute to the emergence and maintenance of species richness gradients through their influence on demographic and diversification processes. We start by reviewing how demographic dynamics change along species richness gradients. Empirical studies show that geographical clines in population parameters and measures of demographic variability are frequent along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. Demographic variability often increases at the extremes of regional species richness gradients and contributes to shape these gradients. Available studies suggest that adaptive traits significantly influence demographic dynamics, and set the limits of species distributions. Traits related to thermal tolerance, resource use, phenology and dispersal seem to play a significant role. For many traits affecting demography and/or diversification processes, complex mechanistic approaches linking genotype, phenotype and fitness are becoming progressively available. In several taxa, species can be distributed along adaptive trait continuums, i.e. a main axis accounting for the bulk of inter-specific variation in some correlated adaptive traits. It is shown that adaptive trait continuums can provide useful mechanistic frameworks to explain demographic dynamics and diversification in species richness gradients. Finally, we review the existence of sequences of adaptive traits in phylogenies, the interactions of adaptive traits and community context, the clinal variation of traits across geographical gradients, and the role of adaptive traits in determining the history of dispersal and diversification of clades. Overall, we show that the study of demographic and evolutionary mechanisms that shape species richness gradients clearly requires the explicit consideration of adaptive traits. To conclude, future research lines and trends in the field are briefly outlined., (© 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.

Biodiversity in agricultural landscapes can be increased with conversion of some production lands into 'more-natural'- unmanaged or extensively managed - lands. However, it remains unknown to what extent biodiversity can be enhanced by altering landscape pattern without reducing agricultural production. We propose a framework for this problem, considering separately compositional heterogeneity (the number and proportions of different cover types) and configurational heterogeneity (the spatial arrangement of cover types). Cover type classification and mapping is based on species requirements, such as feeding and nesting, resulting in measures of 'functional landscape heterogeneity'. We then identify three important questions: does biodiversity increase with (1) increasing heterogeneity of the more-natural areas, (2) increasing compositional heterogeneity of production cover types and (3) increasing configurational heterogeneity of production cover types? We discuss approaches for addressing these questions. Such studies should have high priority because biodiversity protection globally depends increasingly on maintaining biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes., (© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.)

1. Although niche theory predicts that disturbance should favour generalist species, the community-level implications of this pattern have been sparsely analysed. Here, we test the hypothesis that disturbance favours generalist species within communities, analysing effects of wildfires in bird communities in a Mediterranean climate area as a case study. 2. We use bird occurrence data in more than 500 1 × 1 km squares forming a gradient running from forest to completely burnt areas. The level of specialization of bird communities was estimated by means of three complementary species specialization indices, calculated for different landscape gradients and averaged at the community level (i.e. 1 × 1 km squares), and mean species rarity. 3. We also calculated mean habitat preferences along landscape gradients, as well as an index of conservation value and total species richness. 4. Different estimators of bird community specialization varied in contrasting fashion along the wildfire disturbance gradient, and thus we conclude that it is not justified to expect unique community responses to the sharp variations in habitat characteristics brought by wildfire disturbances. 5. Burnt areas tended to have rarer and urban-avoider bird species, whereas unburnt forests tended to have larger proportions of forest specialist species. 6. The mean conservation value of communities clearly increased towards the burnt extreme of the wildfire disturbance gradient, while this had a negligible effect on species richness. 7. Wildfires seem to play an important role for the maintenance of open-habitat, urban-avoider bird populations in Mediterranean landscapes and also to benefit a set of bird species of unfavourable European conservation status. 8. In this context, it cannot be unambiguously concluded that fire disturbance, even in a context in which fires are greatly favoured by human-related activities, leads to more functionally simplified communities dominated by generalist species., (© 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.)

Land-cover changes from the last decades are leading to important declines in habitat quality, giving rise to changes in bird species distribution all over the world. However, land-cover changes result from a variety of different processes, and it is not clear how effective species distribution models are in capturing species responses to these changes. In this study, we evaluated our ability to predict the effects of land-cover changes on shifts in species distributions at large spatial and temporal scales using Mediterranean landscapes and early-successional, open-habitat birds as study models. Based on presence-absence data from the second Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (1999-2002), we applied six different species distribution modeling techniques for 10 bird species using climate, topographic, and land-cover data as predictor variables. Then we back-projected the models on land-cover conditions from 1980 to evaluate the projections with field observation data from the first Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (1975-1983). Finally, we assessed if, in addition to changes in habitat suitability resulting from land-cover shifts, descriptors of fire impact contributed to further explain species distribution dynamics: colonization and local extinction. We developed accurate model projections of current and past global patterns of species distribution, but our ability to predict species distribution dynamics was reduced. Colonization dynamics were generally more strongly related to fire descriptors than to changes in overall habitat suitability derived from land-cover changes. Our results warn of the dangers of projecting species distribution models onto future conditions if processes behind species distribution dynamics are not explicitly included. Consideration of ecologically meaningful processes for species (i.e., fire disturbance) when modeling species' distribution might contribute to a better explanation of species' colonization dynamics.

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis sensitivity was investigated in 32 non-medicated patients with borderline personality disorder without comorbid post-traumatic syndromes and in 18 normal individuals using a modified dexamethasone suppression test (0.25 mg). Enhanced cortisol suppression was found in the patients v. controls (P<0.05) and the percentage of participant's with non-suppression was smaller in the patient (34%) than in the control group (89%) (P<0.01). Baseline cortisol levels in the patients were also lower than in the controls (P<0.05). The 0.25 mg dexamethasone suppression test reveals increased feedback inhibition of the HPA in borderline personality disorder.

Thomas et al. model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species-area relationship to estimate that 15-37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.

We investigated the role of matrix type as a determinant of change in bird densities with forest patch area (patch area effect) in two different Fennoscandian landscape types: mature forest fragments surrounded by cut-over or regenerating forest and true forested islands surrounded by water. Since the matrix of forested archipelagoes offers no resources to and impedes movement of forest birds, we predict that patch area effects on bird densities should be stronger on forested islands than in forest patches fragmented by forestry. We compiled correlation estimates of the bird density-patch area relationship from the literature and analyzed the data using meta-analysis. Combined correlation coefficients were significantly positive on islands but were not significantly different from 0 in fragments. Within-species comparisons also showed that correlations were consistently more positive on islands than in fragments. On islands but not in fragments, the densities of forest specialist species were more sensitive to area than were the densities of forest generalists, suggesting that specialists are more sensitive to changes in matrix quality. Migration status was only weakly associated with bird responses to island or fragment area. Thus, forest fragments do not function as true islands. We interpret this as the result of compensatory effects of the surrounding matrix in terms of availability of resources and enhanced connectivity (matrix quality hypothesis). A purely patch-centered approach seems an unrealistic framework to analyze population processes occurring in complex landscapes. The characteristics of the habitat matrix should therefore be explicitly incorporated into the assessment of species' responses to habitat fragmentation.

We examined the behavioral response to habitat loss and fragmentation of willow tits (Parus montanus) in winter in a mosaic forest landscape in northern Finland. We studied habitat preference, flock size and home range size of 16 flocks, half of which had their territories in forests fragmented by forestry and half in continuous forest. We predicted that birds would respond to habitat loss by enlarging their home range and/or diminishing group size. In addition, to compensate for fragmentation effects, willow tits might be expected to include more optimal habitat into their territories. Flocks included on average 3.9 birds and occupied territories of 12.6 ha. Willow tits avoided open areas (clear cuts and young sapling stands) and preferred mature forests and older sapling stands or pine bogs equally. Birds responded to habitat loss by enlarging their home ranges but not by reducing the group size. Large territories included a smaller proportion of mature forests, but the proportion of sapling and pine bog habitat did not change. Birds on territories that included a large proportion of open habitat localized their activity on several distinct habitat patches that were distributed over a wide area. We conclude that willow tits adjust territory use to compensate for the inclusion of unsuitable habitat within home ranges, and older sapling areas and pine bogs serve as surrogates for mature forests. However, birds did not enlarge the proportion of forest habitat in their territories with increasing habitat loss. Thus, our data do not suggest a strong effect of fragmentation, but imply that forestry practices reduce suitable wintering habitat and carrying capacity in the area. Thus winter habitat loss may explain the observed population decline of willow tits in Finland during recent decades.

Introduction: Some studies have suggested the etiological role of childhood traumatic events in borderline personality disorder (BPD), involving the stress response mechanisms and the activity of hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. Recent preliminary results show that BPD, similar to that found in post-traumatic stress disorder (PSD), might have a hypersensitive response to the dexamethasone test., Methods: Fourteen BPD patients, diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria, without a major depressive episode or history of bipolar or psychotic disorder, were compared with 10 patients with other personality disorders (OPD). Plasma cortisol was measured at baseline and following an oral test with 0.25 mg of dexamethasone., Results: Nine out of 14 (64%) BPD patients were cortisol suppressors in the test versus only 2 out of 10 (20%) patients with other personality disorders (chi square 4.6, degree factors [df] 18, p<0.05). The degree of cortisol suppression was significantly greater for BPD patients (73% ) than for patients with other personality disorder (34 %). Baseline cortisol concentrations, although lower in BPD patients, were not significantly different among groups., Conclusions: BPD could be associated with hypersensitivity of feedback mechanisms of the HPA axis similar to PSD, which suggests a possible role for traumatic experiences in the pathogenesis of the disorder.

Among the Paridae, food hoarding is thought to be strongly associated with the exclusive use of territories by winter groups, although it has also been described in populations with loose social systems. However, detailed data on such populations are scarce. To identify the mechanisms underlying individual storing decisions, I studied hoarding behaviour in a nonterritorial, high-density coal tit, Parus ater, population in a subalpine forest. The presence of close neighbours (within 5 m) had the strongest, negative influence on caching probability, whereas more distant neighbours foraging in the same flock did not affect the probability of caching. Adults concentrated their stores in the centre of their home ranges. Caching location, but not caching intensity, was affected by the time of day. Coal tits took longer, and travelled further, to cache food in the inner parts of trees than in the outer parts. Resident adults stored in inner, safer caching locations more often than juvenile residents and transients. Differences in hoarding effort according to the storing substrate, and the daily storing location pattern of juvenile residents and transients, suggest that stores have a different use depending on where they are located. Therefore, my results show that hoarding is compatible with a nonterritorial, nonbreeding social system; hoarding could thus have originated in an ancient, nonterritorial, but sedentary, tit species. Copyright 2000 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.