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Although most populations of non‐native species arriving in new environments fail to establish, mechanisms behind failed biological invasions are still poorly understood.Propagule pressure has been found to be a dominant driver of establishment success, underpinned by processes such as stochasticity and Allee effects. While studies have revealed the presence of a component Allee effect in field populations, empirical support for demographic Allee effects has been limited.We used the leaf‐feeding beetle Neolema ogloblini, a biological control agent against the plant Tradescantiafluminensis, as a proxy invasive species to experimentally study the process of establishment. We investigated how the initial size of the population released affects the probability of establishment and population growth in the first season after introduction at isolated sites in New Zealand.The probability of establishment was found to increase with numbers of individuals released. A significant quadratic relationship was found between population size released and per capita population growth rate; that is per capita population growth rate initially increased as population size released increased but decreased at higher population levels.These results support the presence of a demographic Allee effect. However, as the influence of stochasticity (environmental and demographic) could not be completely separated from that of a demographic Allee effect, we conclude that extinction probability in the experimental populations of N. ogloblini was influenced by both a demographic Allee effect and stochasticity.Our study demonstrates and supports the concept that experimental biocontrol agent releases can be used for testing hypotheses regarding invasion biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the magnitude of climate change effects is crucial for informing national economic strategies, forest management and offsetting increasing carbon emissions. This study synthesizes predicted climate change impacts and future biosecurity threats to New Zealand's plantation forests. Projected productivity increases for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don), the main commercial forest species in New Zealand, are slight due to changing climatic conditions. However including photosynthetic effects from increasing CO2, productivity gains across New Zealand averaged 19 per cent by 2040 and 37 per cent by 2090. This increased productivity results in marked increases in wind risk due to trees becoming taller and more slender. The average season length with 'very high and extreme' climatic fire risk increases by 71 per cent up to 2040 and by 83 per cent up to 2090. Currently, the most significant biotic disturbances in New Zealand plantations come from two needle cast diseases, for which climate projections show slight increases or decreases depending on the disease and region. Although insect pests currently cause little damage to New Zealand plantations, damage may increase in the future with projected increases in population and host susceptibility. It has not been possible to fully account for the effects of any new introductions of pests and pathogens and evidence from other countries with a significant resource of planted forests suggest this should not be underestimated. Potentially invasive weedy and damaging tree species are likely to expand their range under climate change and compete more strongly with plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of 70 years (1914-1984), and 45 alien species were intercepted entering New Zealand over a period of 68 years (1955-2013). Most of the interceptions did not originate from species' native ranges but instead came from invaded areas. In the United States, 75.7% of the interceptions came from a country where the intercepted ant species had been previously introduced. In New Zealand, this value was even higher, at 87.8%. There was an overrepresentation of interceptions from nearby locations (Latin America for species intercepted in the United States and Oceania for species intercepted in New Zealand). The probability of a species' successful establishment in both the United States and New Zealand was positively related to the number of interceptions of the species in these countries. Moreover, species that have spread to more continents are also more likely to be intercepted and to make secondary introductions. This creates a positive feedback loop between the introduction and establishment stages of the invasion process, in which initial establishments promote secondary introductions. Overall, these results reveal that secondary introductions act as a critical driver of increasing global rates of invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species–those never encountered as aliens before–therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species available for future invasions, and it has been suggested that the problem of invasions will diminish as a result of this. However, the extent to which source pool depletion affects future invasions remains unclear., Here we describe a mechanistic model that captures the simultaneous effects of depletion of source species pools along with increases in pathway rates (e.g. imports) to predict future numbers of new invasions. We assume that the distribution of species abundance within invasion pathways is positively skewed, which is modelled using a log-normal distribution. Given their high propagule pressure, the most abundant species are likely to invade first, while the many rare species are likely to invade only under high pathway volumes. We apply this model to the case study of bark beetle, Scolytinae, invasions in the USA., Source species pools in Europe and Asia (225 and 655 species of Scolytinae, respectively) are much larger than numbers that have historically established (16 and 32). Parameterization of the model indicates a highly skewed species abundance distribution in the pathway and this is confirmed by species frequencies in port inspection records, thus explaining why only a small fraction of species has historically invaded., Forecasts from the model indicate that with increasing rates of imports, more species from these regions are likely to invade in the future despite the depletion of the most abundant species from source species pools. Previous statistical models tend to underestimate future establishments in the presence of increasing import rates due to their failure to account for key underlying mechanisms., Policy implications. The mechanistic model developed here is widely applicable for predicting future invasions of all taxa and provides insights into how increases in rates of imports counteract the species pool depletion effect, resulting in the continued establishment of new species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Dispersal and host detection are behaviours promoting the spread of invading populations in a landscape matrix. In fragmented landscapes, the spatial arrangement of habitat structure affects the dispersal success of organisms. 2. The aim of the present study was to determine the long distance dispersal capabilities of two non-native pine bark beetles ( Hylurgus ligniperda and Hylastes ater) in a modified and fragmented landscape with non-native pine trees. The role of pine density in relation to the abundance of dispersing beetles was also investigated. 3. This study took place in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. A network of insect panel traps was installed in remote valleys at known distances from pine resources (plantations or windbreaks). Beetle abundance was compared with spatially weighted estimates of nearby pine plantations and pine windbreaks. 4. Both beetles were found ≥25 km from the nearest host patch, indicating strong dispersal and host detection capabilities. Small pine patches appear to serve as stepping stones, promoting spread through the landscape. Hylurgus ligniperda (F.) abundance had a strong inverse association with pine plantations and windbreaks, whereas H. ater abundance was not correlated with distance to pine plantations but positively correlated with distance to pine windbreaks, probably reflecting differences in biology and niche preferences. Host availability and dispersed beetle abundance are the proposed limiting factors impeding the spread of these beetles. 5. These mechanistic insights into the spread and persistence of H. ater and H. ligniperda in a fragmented landscape provide ecologists and land managers with a better understanding of factors leading to successful invasion events, particularly in relation to the importance of long-distance dispersal ability and the distribution and size of host patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]