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This paper studies the implications of household heterogeneity for trade. I develop a model where household heterogeneity is induced via incomplete markets and results in heterogeneous price elasticities. Conditional on exposure to trade, heterogeneous price elasticities imply that different households value price changes differently, and thus rich and poor households experience different gains from trade. I calibrate the model to match bilateral trade flows and micro-facts about household-level expenditure patterns and elasticities. I find gains from trade that are pro-poor and that the average gains from trade are substantially larger than representative agent benchmarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the impact of the Chile-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA) over the bilateral extensive and intensive margins of trade. Using disaggregated product-level data for the period 1996-2017, the paper tests the impact of CKFTA on bilateral flows, as well as differentiate these effects between intensive and extensive margins at the product level. To estimate, a Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model is proposed. It is found that the CKFTA had a positive effect over bilateral trade flows, and although new products were added to the bilateral export basket (extensive margin), the impact is stronger on goods already traded (intensive margin). Moreover, the paper concludes that this effect is stronger for Chilean exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade among neighboring nations holds significant economic importance, influencing the socio-economic development of countries. India and Pakistan represent one of the most persistent conflicts in contemporary international relations. The continuation of this conflict poses significant challenges to the establishment and nurturing of robust economic ties between the two nations. Deep-rooted historical animosity between neighboring nations often adversely affects regional economic relations, leading to noticeable disruption and disparities in trade patterns. This study focuses on examining the impact of geopolitical dynamics on trade relations between India and Pakistan. Bilateral trade relations between the two countries have been examined in three distinct time periods: 1965–2011, 2011–2016, and 2016 onwards. The findings revealed that whenever there were hostile relations between the two countries, their trade relations were also adversely affected. Furthermore, it is recommended that emphasizing the importance of peaceful relations is crucial for fostering bilateral trade between the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China seems to be replacing America as the powerbroker in the Middle East and the Gulf region while U.S.-ally Saudi Arabia seems to be switching sides. But while Riyadh prefers a non-liberal world order, such as the one China promises, Saudi economic interests remain aligned with America and the West, especially with signs indicating that China's economy, and therefore power, have peaked, and are unlikely to replace America's. Saudi Arabia's bilateral trade and investments with China might suggest that relations between the two sides are deepening, but a closer look shows that such ties remain transactional, and therefore non-durable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, China and Russia decades have adopted accommodation, normalisation and convergence strategies that transformed their cooperation into a comprehensive strategic partnership. Despite having this strategic alignment, several issues still constrain their long-term relations, such as divergent views and assessment of the world order, imbalance in bilateral trade and investment, competition in their respective spheres of influence, Russians' fear of a Chinese immigrant onslaught, ideological cleavages, and asymmetrical power distribution between the two. This study explains the factors behind their convergence and divergences of interests and its implications for their future relations. While utilising content analysis as the research methodology this study hypothesizes that though the two are engaged in strategic and other partnerships, yet the structural differences will inhibit their long-term cordiality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to eliminate an embedded data bias in testing the J-curve hypothesis in relevant literature. In all previous trade models about the J-curve, the bilateral trade balance (BTB) ratio, as the dependent variable, is generated and used based on total exports data, i.e. as total exports over total import. However, total exports are the sum of domestic exports and re-exports, and some countries also re-export to their partners. Furthermore, the dynamics and impacts of changing exchange rates on export volumes of domestically produced goods may differ from those on re-exported goods. Therefore, in this study, in testing the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, we, for the first time, re-define two new proposed forms of BTBs, namely, domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB and re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB, based on domestic exports and re-exports, respectively, for USA–Canada trade. The main finding shows that the numbers of industries that support the asymmetric J-curve concerning these two forms of BTBs are entirely different. While the J-curve is supported by domestic-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 27 industries, it is supported by re-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB for 38. This support is 22 for the total-export-based J-curve hypothesis BTB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the gravity of bilateral trade in services at an aggregate level. The aim of the paper is to assess the effects of social and economic factors on the export of services. A large part of the trade-in services is directly or indirectly related to the tourism industry; therefore, the results of this research are mainly discussed from the perspective of the tourism industry. To achieve the paper's aim, we estimate the augmented gravity model on a sample of 5,359 trading partners from 2000 to 2018. We evaluate our model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. We include various fixed-effect dummies in our model to address the endogeneity issues. Our results show that standard gravity variables such as economic size and distance are significant for service trade. From the tourism industry perspective, it can be concluded that trade in tourism services is determined by the similarity in economic size, proximity, and common socio-economic factors such as common first language and shared religious beliefs. In contrast, common colonial history has no significant effects on service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and Ukraine for the 2016-2022 period. One of this research’s main objectives is to analyze each trading partner’s role in bilateral trade. Using statistical analysis methods, we estimate each country’s share of bilateral trade for imports and exports of the top imported/exported products. Based on the analysis, it is found that in some product groups such as Group 72 “Iron and Steel”, Group 86 “Railway or Tramway Locomotives, Rolling Stock and Parts Thereof” and Group 27 “Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained From Bituminous Minerals”, Bulgaria and Ukraine have already established long-term relationships. For the five-year 2016-2021 period, Ukrainian exports to Bulgaria have increased by 100%, and imports have increased by 214%. The results of this study may contribute to further scientific research to determine the direction of development of international trade in both countries. The positive trends in each country’s exports to the other encourage additional investments, particularly in the manufacture of these products and in the search for new market niches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Pakistan are strategic partners, and the two people share a deep historical sentiment. Currently, changes in the world, times, and history are unfolding in an unprecedented manner. Faced with a highly uncertain world situation, Pakistan and China maintain high-level cooperation in multilateral mechanisms, closely cooperate on major international and regional issues, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. It analyzes the prospects for deepening cooperation in bilateral trade between Pakistan and China, as well as the risk factors that are likely to occur in bilateral trade between Pakistan and China. For this research study both the primary and secondary sources are utilized and qualitative research techniques are applied to trace out the results. It is necessary for both the partner to never undermine the threats of the international powers and changing politics of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Muscle strength and balance ability have been related to injury prevention and game actions performance in football. The aims of this study are twofold: (1) to examine bilateral asymmetries in isokinetic strength and balance assessments, and (2) to evaluate the relationship between muscle strength and balance measures. Eighty-eight male adolescent football players were assessed for body composition (InBody 770), isokinetic strength (Biodex System 4 Pro Dynamometer), and balance performance (Biodex Balance System). Paired samples t-tests were conducted to determine bilateral differences in strength and balance. Pearson correlations and multiple linear regression analyses evaluated the relationship between strength and balance. No significant bilateral strength differences were observed in knee flexors (KF) and knee extensors (KE) peak torque (PT) scores. No bilateral differences were found for balance measures, except in the lateromedial stability index, which was better while performing with the preferred leg (p ≤ 0.01; d = 0.29). Significant correlations were found between KE PT and balance tasks (p ≤ 0.01). KF and KE PT shared between 18 and 22% of the common variance in the overall stability index in the non-preferred and preferred leg, respectively. Monitoring strategies of bilateral asymmetries may be crucial to enhance performance in tasks underpinned by unilateral movements, such as changes of direction and sprints, and to identify players at risk of injury. Adopting these strategies during the early stages of football training might be crucial for players' long-term development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of digital trade has had a profound impact on global economies, revolutionizing trading practices and facilitating trade expansion. The purpose of this paper is to explore the digital partnership between Korea and the European Union (EU) and its implications for their shared agenda in digital trade to theorize the dynamics of digital trade. A case study method is used to explore trade between Korea and the EU with in-depth descriptive analysis. Digital trade-flow statistics were analyzed to develop the case for Korea and EU digital trade and derive implications for both countries. The findings were generalized by discussing the relevant literature and data from other countries to identify the wider implications. The analysis was focused on the areas of information and communication technology and e-commerce. The findings suggest uncovered trade imbalances, such as Korea's surplus of ICT goods exports and the EU's dominant position in online trade. There is an influence of supply chain dynamics, specifically the presence of Korean manufacturers' production units in countries like Vietnam, and the same dynamics have shaped Korea's actual place in the supply of ICT goods to the European market. While the digital partnership was established to align regulatory frameworks and foster trust, transparency, and harmonization in the digital domain, it has failed to adequately reflect the importance of digital trade. Although both sides are motivated to collaborate on the harmonization of digital trade rules, there have been instances where the partners' interests diverge. It is concluded that some political and economic factors may hinder the effectiveness of the digital partnership, unless concrete measures that go beyond traditional bilateral policymaking approaches are implemented. It is therefore recommended to emphasize the need to enhance the efficacy of the digital partnership by taking bolder actions to develop digital trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In the rapidly developing modern society, digital technology has brought great changes to many traditional things. Digital trade is a new trade form born from traditional trade. Its appearance has changed the pattern of traditional trade to a certain extent and has been gradually concerned by all parties. At the same time, with the advancement of the times, the multi-polarization of the world has gradually become mainstream. For Portuguese-speaking countries, trade and cultural exchanges can strengthen the cooperation among countries and effectively promote the common development of all countries. Therefore, this paper takes China and Portugal as the main research objects, selects the relevant data of bilateral digital trade from 2008 to 2019 for research, analyzes the scale and structure of bilateral digital trade, and studies and analyzes the cooperation path of digital trade between China and Portugal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The study intends to investigate the effect of taxation on bilateral trade in the Southern African Development Community region. It is motivated by the on-going reviews of tax rates in the frame of the SADC regional integration. Design/Approach/Methodology: This paper further employs the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood with high dimensional fixed effects (PPMLHDFE) to ascertain the objective, which caters for multilateral resistance and ensures the accuracy and validity of the results for a time spanning from 2012 to 2018. Findings: The results show that during the period of the analysis, import tax for exporting countries significantly increases bilateral trade, while export tax for exporting countries increases bilateral trade, and significantly reduces bilateral trade for importing countries in the region. International trade tax for exporting countries significantly reduces bilateral trade. Practical Implications: Authorities should formulate a more effective and rational approach to taxation, such as increasing their tax net and downward revision tax rates for struggling companies, so that taxes do not become a hindrance, but rather, a pivotal determinant of trade, growth, and development in the region. Originality/Value: This paper is unique because it is the first to examine and understand the impact of taxation (import tax, export tax and international trade tax) on bilateral trade in the SADC region, employing the standard Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood gravity model approach, which accommodates heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic resulted in large and varying declines in bilateral trade flows. This study investigates whether these diverse effects can be explained by differences in trade costs as measured by pre‐existing trade policies (e.g. tariffs, non‐tariff measures and trade agreements). Results indicate that trade flows subject to higher trade costs declined more than average during 2020. The results also show that trade costs have heterogeneous effects depending on the thickness of trade relationships, with small exporters being relatively more affected by the presence of trade costs. We interpret the results as evidence that the fall in demand during 2020 caused higher‐cost and less‐established suppliers to be squeezed out of international markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic relationship between India and Russia has been limited and faced various challenges historically. However, changing geopolitical and geoeconomic situations have created new opportunities while also presenting challenges and risks. This paper aims to analyse the legacy issues and dynamic shifts in international trade and order that are currently taking place. The article explores the ongoing transformation of Indo-Russian economic engagement and proposes possible means for moving forward. The existing advantages of both countries in the areas of trade and investment are also outlined.Assuming a resolution to the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the paper proposes an economic roadmap for continuing the recent momentum in the trade and economic relationship between Russia and India. The first step is to strengthen bilateral trade in existing priority export sectors of both countries. This can be followed by deeper cooperation in oil, civilian nuclear energy, and defence sectors. The introduction of rupee-rouble trade, even partially, could significantly boost these efforts. The paper also advocates for involving the private sector in these efforts by adopting a proactive approach by both governments.By combining immediate efforts with long-term geopolitical maneuvers on both sides and an early resolution of the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, it is possible to push bilateral trade and investment levels onto a sustainable growth path in the future. The paper argues strongly for this approach.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2002-2021 döneminde Türkiye’nin İslam İşbirliği Teşkilatı (İİT) üyelerinden 37’si ile olan dış ticaretinde Linder Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini analiz etmektir. Uluslararası ticareti talep yönünden inceleyen Linder’e göre, talep yapıları benzer olan ülkelerin aralarında daha fazla ticaret gerçekleşmektedir. Talep yapılarının benzerlik durumları ise ortalama gelir seviyesiyle ele alınabilmektedir. Bu kapsamda, Türkiye’nin İİT üyeleriyle olan ikili ticareti genişletilmiş panel çekim modeliyle incelenmektedir. Analizde zamanla değişen değişkenlerin yanı sıra, zamanla değişmeyen değişkenleri de tahmin edebilme olanağı sunan Hausman-Taylor yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. Yapılan tahmin sonuçlarına göre, ilk olarak çekim modeli ile uyumlu şekilde, Türkiye’nin üye ülkelerle dış ticaretine Türkiye’nin ve ticaret partneri ülkenin kişi başına düşen GSYH büyüklüklerinin pozitif, ülkeler arasındaki mesafenin ise negatif yönde etki yaptığı anlaşılmıştır. İkinci olarak, Türkiye’nin söz konusu ülkelerle ikili ticaretinde Linder Hipotezi’nin geçerli olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Son olarak, söz konusu ikili ticarette ortak sınır ve serbest ticaret anlaşmalarına ilişkin kukla değişkenlerin anlamsız olduğu görülmektedir.

Shortly after the restoration of Georgia's independence, the United States became an important strategic partner. On June 20, 2007, a trade and investment framework agreement was signed between the U.S. and Georgia. This agreement is to expand trade in goods and services between countries, as well as to improve the investment environment in Georgia. Although Georgia does not yet have a Free Trade Agreement with the United States, this research aimed to assess the trade potential between Georgia and the U.S. through a gravity model using panel data for the period 2000-2021. The bilateral trade gravity model was evaluated by EGLS, two-stage EGLS, and GMM techniques, which included the following variables: GDP, population, distance, and trade openness between Georgia and partner countries. In addition, dummy variables such as religion, common border, and trade agreement also play a role. The results of the study also revealed that Georgia's foreign trade potential with the United States is fragile.

AbstractEthiopia has had long-standing bilateral relations with Sudan dating back to ancient period. However, they formally established their relations in 1960s immediately after Sudanese independence. This research attempts to assess their relation since 2011 by focusing on their diplomatic and economic conducts as the main focus. It aims at understanding the factors that contributed for their positive economic relations, by trade and investment as a main focus. To achieve this objective, the study employed qualitative research approach. Data have been collected both from primary and secondary sources by using in-depth interviews were conducted. The findings of the study show that the economic relationships between the two countries are in favor of Sudan. The study identified Ethiopia’s role in settling the longest civil war of two Sudan’s, The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, mutual interdependency and frequently exchanging high-level visits from both sides are the major factors that shaped the post 2011 Ethio–Sudan relations. Of particular relevance, trade and investment have been the most important sectors boldly visible in the post 2011 Ethio–Sudan economic relations. Foreign direct investment inflow from Sudan also increased in general since 2011; however, it has been low in comparison with their potential.

The present study investigates the effect of regional and bilateral trade agreements supported by institutional framework on bilateral trade between India and selected South and Central Asian countries. The augmented gravity model that corrects for zero trade, endogeneity and heterogeneity is used. The model is developed by applying OLS and PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) estimation technique using panel dataset of 22 countries from 1996 to 2020. Empirical results show that trade agreements have failed to enhance trade between selected countries. However, institutional framework positively contributes to trade integration among these countries. The key finding of this study is that regional trade agreements supported by institutional framework play an important role in promotion of trade among these countries. Thus, the government needs to pay attention to enhance institutional quality to reap the benefits of trade integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does state ownership limit the liberalizing effects of the WTO? We examine the case of China, which is not only the largest exporting state but also lends active support to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that could distort global trade. Using data on import purchases disaggregated by ownership from 1993 to 2012, we analyze how WTO entry affects the commercial orientation of state-owned and private imports. We demonstrate that after WTO entry, tariff cuts have a larger effect on private compared to SOE trade. We then show that state ownership alone does not block the WTO's liberalizing effects. For most industries, SOEs and private firms are alike in their commercial orientation. However, where strategic goods targeted by industrial policy hold a large share of bilateral trade, lowering tariffs has no impact on SOE trade. These findings highlight the tensions between state-led economic models and global trade law premised upon market principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few decades, China has become one of the most important foreign investment destinations and centers of economic development in Asia. China's growing economic clout and coercive measures lead to the following empirical puzzles: how has Taiwan perceived China's increasing military capabilities and economic influence? What are the major factors that facilitate or constrain the role of a government agency of a weaker state in addressing the economic power of a stronger one? More specifically, what has been the purpose of Taiwan's economic statecraft? Based on Taiwan's official statements, regional trade data, and newspaper coverage in Chinese and English, this study investigates both positive and negative evaluations of China-Taiwan trade from 2009 to 2021. From 2009 to 2016, President Ma Ying-jeou adopted a desecuritization strategy in normalizing bilateral trade with China, and he actively promoted greater liberalization of Taiwan's financial and service sectors for China's investment. From 2016 to 2021, President Tsai Ing-wen employed a securitization strategy in light of the risks of economic reliance on China's markets. The article proceeds as follows. First, it engages the current literature on economic statecraft, China-Taiwan relations, and Asian politics. Second, this study offers a framework of desecuritization and securitization of Taiwan's trade toward China, and it highlights how the political leaders in Taiwan attempt to find a balance between trade and security. Third, it provides in-depth case studies on how Taiwan executed desecuritization and securitization strategies. Finally, it concludes with some initial thoughts on the studies of comparative economic statecraft, and provides policy implications for countries in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Cochlear Implant (CI) surgery is an effective and feasible alternative to restore hearing in severe bilateral hearing loss. Materials and methods: This retrospective study estimated the prevalence of complications associated with CI surgeries done from April 1994 to March 2016. Results: About 1,236 surgeries were performed on 933 pediatric patients and 79 adults. The cause of the deafness was congenital (90.91%), idiopathic (8.30%), and meningitis (0.79%). No speech impairment was seen in eight (0.86%) children. There was a history of consanguinity in 60.02% of patients. Bilateral profound hearing impairment was common in 99.41% of patients. The previous CI was reported at 29.46%. Delayed milestones (13.39%) in children, hypertension (14.29%), and diabetes mellitus (15.18%) in adult patients were noted. Right, cochlear implantation (47.43%), left (31.42%) and bilateral implantation (21.15%) were done. There were 17 (1.68%) complications (major 08, minor, 09) in adults. Superficial wound infection occurred in four patients (median 28 days, range 3-358 days) after implantation resolved on treatment. There was no significant (p > 0.05) relationship between the presence of comorbidities and complications. Conclusion: Cochlear Implant is a safe procedure and the complications are within the acceptable limits. Clinical significance: The complication rate with cochlear implants is within an acceptable range. Infections remain the most common complication. The procedure is safe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The trade gravity model is modified to incorporate infrastructure quality differences between economies, and this points to asymmetric bilateral trade costs. • Asymmetric bilateral trade costs then impact bilateral trade balance positively (negatively) for economies with higher (lower) infrastructure quality. Post bilateral trade liberalization, the impact of infrastructure quality on bilateral trade balance is further accentuated. These effects are not detected consistently against potential confounders. • The research shows how infrastructure quality can affect trade outcomes and underscores the importance of developing infrastructure as economies liberalize to trade. It is difficult to establish the impact infrastructure has on trade balances due to confounding factors. Our empirical approach leverages on episodes of trade liberalization, interacting such episodes with infrastructure. Providing a simple extension to the gravity model, we find that infrastructure quality differences between trade partners result in trade imbalances, which liberalization then accentuates. For robustness checks, we interact the liberalization indicator against other confounding variables and do not find such consistent effects. We conclude that lack of quality infrastructure in developing economies contributes to larger trade deficits, and infrastructure development should be supported alongside trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Usually developing and transitional countries are characterised by foreign exchange and capital scarcities and hence resort to stringent trade and capital control policies. This might become counterproductive and provide incentives to the international traders and investors to go for corrupt practices. This paper investigates how do these tight policies might encourage illegal or hidden capital movements across borders. By presenting both a theoretical and an empirical analysis, where traders and investors rationally misreport to evade stringent trade and investment barriers, we first show that illegal capital outflow takes place through trade misreporting and interestingly, export and import misreporting are cointegrated. Secondly and more importantly illegal capital inflow might take place through overreporting of FDI values and illegal capital outflow and inflow are cointegrated too. Based on the thorough investigation of the BRICS – USA bilateral trade and FDI data, we propose that a less regulated trade and investment regime might benefit these countries more as tight and restrictive policies seem to be self-defeating. Our study comes up with policy conclusions that might minimise the cross-border illegal capital movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a 'Nash in Nash' framework within a computable general equilibrium model to determine the welfare maximizing set of bilateral trade agreements for countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Comparing these agreements to an agreement involving all countries/sectors, we find that welfare is always larger in the multilateral agreement. This is because several sectors are often excluded from the bilateral agreements, and not all countries would have a bilateral agreement with others. The sectors that are often excluded from the agreements are agriculture, as these sectors are often deemed 'sensitive' in negotiations and are protected by high initial tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of Kazakhstan's foreign trade is a central factor in Kazakhstan's economic growth, and therefore it is important to understand which trade procedures have a negative and positive aspect on the development of trade relations between countries. Customs procedures are an integral part of the passage of international borders. It is significant that such procedures do not have a negative impact on trade. The article on the basis of the gravitational model of foreign trade assesses the influence of the factor of customs regulation, namely the implementation of customs procedures at the border for the development of exports and imports of Kazakhstan. The models are based on bilateral trade data from Kazakhstan with 53 countries for the period 1995-2021, with partner countries divided into three groups depending on the income level of the countries to obtain better results. Independent variables reflecting customs regulation were countries' participation in the Revised Kyoto Convention (RKC), time and cost of customs formalities at the border according to the World Bank Report «Doing Business» (Trading across borders). The study concluded on the impact of customs regulation on the foreign trade of Kazakhstan, with the time factor playing a more significant role than transaction costs on customs clearance. At the same time, the participation of countries in the RKC has a positive impact on the development of bilateral trade. The assessment of the impact of customs procedures on the development of foreign trade confirms the need for customs regulatory reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research delves into the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on trade dynamics in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, focusing on the potential augmentation or diversion of trade resulting from CIS countries' WTO accession. The study context is grounded in the interplay between regionalism, represented by regional trade agreements and historical connections, and global integration facilitated by WTO membership. The study also scrutinizes the potentially complicating role of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) regional bloc, referencing the 'Spaghetti Bowl' phenomenon of overlapping trade agreements. The gravity model of trade serves as a conceptual foundation to understand the effects of WTO membership and regional trade agreements on trade costs. Empirical results suggest that WTO membership has not enhanced trade for the CIS. Instances of trade within the CIS region where there is only one WTO member have resulted in a positive trend, even though there is no robust evidence that it is due to WTO membership. The EAEU enhances trade and serves as a trading bloc within the region. This study highlights that while the WTO strives to foster trade liberalization and growth, its effects can be region-specific and complex, as demonstrated by the CIS region's experience. The research also hints at the importance of intra-regional trade and unique regional factors as critical determinants of trade patterns, which can enhance broader trade expansion and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Brazil established the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" in 2012. Since the establishment of the partnership, China and Brazil have continued to deepen economic and trade cooperation, and cooperation in various fields has achieved remarkable results. China has long been consistent in maintaining its status as Brazil's largest export destination and source of imports. The total volume of bilateral trade between China and Brazil has significantly increased, and the trade structure in goods is becoming increasingly diversified. The total volume of bilateral trade between China and Brazil has grown considerably, and the trade structure in goods has become increasingly diversified. On 20 April 2023, when Brazilian President Lula visited China, China and Brazil issued a joint statement on deepening the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership", further deepening the cooperation in trade in goods has become a consensus. From the perspective of goods trade under the comprehensive strategic partnership, the article analyses the complementarities and competitiveness of goods trade between China and Brazil with the help of relevant formulas to form a complete and transparent study of the goods trade between the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The results indicate that while only 8 out of 47 U.S. states support the food-based asymmetric J-curve hypothesis, 15 U.S. states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Additionally, 9 U.S. states support the food-based symmetric J-curve hypothesis, and 2 U.S. states support the symmetric inverse J-curve hypothesis. Based on these results, policymakers of U.S. states where the J-curve hypothesis is not supported should review their food-based bilateral trade policies with Canada. These maps depict the U.S. states in green and red, indicating support for the J-curve and inverse J-curve hypotheses, respectively. The map on the left was generated using the linear model (symmetric approach), while the map on the right was generated using the nonlinear model (asymmetric approach). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates three-way gravity models with multiplicative unobserved effects, which are popular in bilateral trade analysis and many other contexts. Such models are usually estimated by the fixed effects Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method. As an alternative, we extend the estimation strategy proposed by Jochmans (2017) to our new settings by constructing moment conditions that are independent of the unobserved effects. Our method entails estimation of the conditional mean of a variety of functional forms. The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator based on these moment conditions is N-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We also discuss the estimation of dynamic models by extending the linear feedback models to our three-way settings. Through various simulation designs, we show that our GMM estimator outperforms the competing Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. As an empirical application, we estimate the effects of the currency unions on exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyse the comparative advantage of selected agricultural products for both EU and China in the context of EU-China bilateral trade and explore how the trade specialization changes along with the economic development based on the data between 2001 and 2017. First, we obtain the static results from both a comparative advantage perspective and a trade complementarity perspective. We then analyse three types of trade specialization dynamics by using the OLS regression and Markov transition probability matrix from a more dynamic perspective. Results show that EU's comparative advantage includes meat products, dairy products, animal originated products, preparations of cereals or milk products, beverages, wool and vegetable textile fibres. China has a comparative advantage in fish, animal originated products, edible vegetable, lac, gums, resins, vegetable, plaiting materials, preparations of vegetables, silk, wool and vegetable textile fibres. We also find that both EU and China have unstable trade specialization for their agricultural products trade and we give policy implications for EU-China bilateral trade based on the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil fuels are not distributed evenly throughout the world, and hence the countries rely heavily on international trade to secure energy supply. Characterization of the energy trade network is needed to conduct long-term assessments of energy security. This study proposes a modeling framework to assess the evolution of energy trade under current conditions as well as under future scenarios up to 2050. The total trade of each country is estimated with trade predictive models (TPMs) using key variables. Subsequently, a matrix-balancing method (RAS) is used to estimate the annual bilateral trades. The projected energy trade network in 2050 varies under each shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) of the future, with annual fossil fuel global trades among countries ranging between 538 and 215 EJ. Canada, USA, Venezuela, and China are projected to dominate the global trade network, with Canada-USA remaining the most dominant fossil fuel trade link up to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

These days, data is regarded as a valuable asset in the era of the data economy, which demands a trading platform for buying and selling data. However, online data trading poses challenges in terms of security and fairness because the seller and the buyer may not fully trust each other. Therefore, in this paper, a blockchain-based secure and fair data trading system is proposed by taking advantage of the smart contract and matchmaking encryption. The proposed system enables bilateral authorization, where data trading between a seller and a buyer is accomplished only if their policies, required by each other, are satisfied simultaneously. This can be achieved by exploiting the security features of the matchmaking encryption. To guarantee non-repudiation and fairness between trading parties, the proposed system leverages a smart contract to ensure that the parties honestly carry out the data trading protocol. However, the smart contract in the proposed system does not include complex cryptographic operations for the efficiency of onchain processes. Instead, these operations are carried out by off-chain parties and their results are used as input for the on-chain procedure. The system also uses an arbitration protocol to resolve disputes based on the trading proof recorded on the blockchain. The performance of the protocol is evaluated in terms of off-chain computation overhead and on-chain gas consumption. The results of the experiments demonstrate that the proposed protocols can enable the implementation of a cost-effective data trading system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone (COCZs) which as a platform for China's foreign investment and trade has a potential impact on CO2 emissions, while strengthening bilateral investment and trade between China and the host countries. Since most of the COCZs are located in countries along the "Belt and Road," the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of COCZs on CO2 emissions of the countries along the "Belt and Road" and the mechanism of this impact. We constructed a panel data of 63 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2020, and conducted an empirical study using the difference-in-difference (DID) model. Our research result show that COCZs can significantly increase the CO2 emissions of the countries along the "Belt and Road." Then, we conduct a series of robustness tests and endogeneity test on the estimation results of the baseline model, and the results of the tests all support the conclusion reached by the baseline model. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of COCZs on CO2 emissions is more significant in Asian countries with lower national income or industrialization and higher country risk. Finally, we analyzed industrial value added and energy depletion as possible impact mechanisms, the results of mechanism model shows that COCZs can increase the industrial value added and then significantly increase CO2 emissions, but energy depletion was not an efficient mechanism. Our paper provides a new insight into the impact of bilateral economic and trade cooperation zones on CO2 emissions in host countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative effect of a currency appreciation on a country's exports may be attenuated as its export basket becomes more sophisticated. This paper investigates whether exchange rate changes affect China's exports differently depending on their sophistication levels, as measured by the Product Complexity Index (PCI). We estimate exchange rate elasticities for 1242 export categories disaggregated at the HS‐4‐digit level from 1995 to 2018 using bilateral trade data between China and 190 partner economies. Results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects on China's export values, and exchange rate effects are less for more sophisticated exports. This decreasing of exchange rate elasticities for more sophisticated exports holds even when controlling for tariffs. The evidence also shows that, as China has upgraded its export basket over time, the impact of exchange rates on exports has become smaller and less significant. Moreover, the effect of exchange rate related policies on export values via the exchange rate is smaller and less significant for China's more sophisticated exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US-Canada wood product trade is a longstanding dispute due to protectionist high-tariff policies, further exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions on US production and exports. This study investigates the J-curve effect at the US state level, revealing that only 11 US states support the asymmetric J-curve for wood products, whereas 10 US states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve (shown in Appendix 2 online). Furthermore, high tariffs imposed by the US improved trade balances for only three states, implying that the high-tariff policy did not enhance the US wood-based trade balance with Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The SACU and US trade relationship continues to be dominated by AGOA. Given the lingering uncertainty surrounding its renewal post-2025, this article recommends the SACU to be proactive and reengage the US in the negotiation of a reciprocal trade agreement that builds on AGOA and deepens the parties' trade relationships. However, trade negotiation processes can be challenging. The literature on product-level prioritization specifically designed to inform trade negotiations is also sparse. Hence, this article proposes a product-level prioritization method, suggested for implementation in the preparation phase of the bilateral trade negotiation process. The method can be applied in any bilateral trade negotiation setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of climate change on bilateral trade flows. To this end, we estimate a theory‐grounded gravity model using bilateral trade flows on a sample of 67 countries over the period from 1986 to 2016. We use temperatures and extreme weather events (and their consequences) as indicators of climate change. In general, we find that international trade flows are less affected by the evolution of temperatures than domestic ones, while the opposite occurs with extreme weather events. However, there is a clear heterogeneity across countries and types of events. In particular, the results suggest that biological events, such as (epidemics and insect infestation), extreme temperatures, storms and landslides have a negative impact on international flows relative to internal ones. Interestingly, the influence of China and Japan on the global result is decisive, especially for storms in the first case and extreme temperatures in the second. Finally, our General Equilibrium estimations suggest a more detrimental impact of insect infestation and extreme temperatures on welfare than the rest of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The current empirical literature shows that logistics plays a vital role in increasing the total volume of international trade. However, there is scarce literature on the impact of logistics performance on global value chain trade. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics performance on global value chain trade, measured by the value-added exports. The empirical specification of this paper is based on the structural gravity model of international trade. The analysis is based on biennial panel data on bilateral trade flows for the EU-15, CEE, and the Western Balkans and covers the period from 2010 to 2018. The model is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The results show that logistics performance appears to have significant positive effects on global value chain trade and that the logistics performance of the partner country plays a more critical role than the logistics performance of the reporting country. Institutional quality matters greatly for global value chain trade. Individual differences in the observed variables were found between selected groups of countries. The need to improve logistics performance and invest in knowledge and technology will help countries improve in value chains, along with adequate institutional support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes available aggregate country-level data, as well as bilateral trade and investment data, to identify signs of fragmentation in trade and investment patterns among ten major trading countries or regional trading blocks. We compare the trade and investment trends in the years during the US-China trade war and increase in geopolitical tensions (2018-2021) against the years preceding the trade war (2014-2017). Our analysis generally corroborates findings in the existing literature. Bilateral flows between the US and China have been damaged, but there is little evidence of wider fragmentation or that the world is splitting into competing spheres. Even focusing on technologyintensive manufactures that are increasingly subject to trade restrictions, we find no evidence of broad fragmentation. Our analysis does reveal, however, shifts in global trade and FDI, particularly towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and ASEAN countries. This may reflect a partial reshuffling of global value chains that is a natural outcome of favorable developments in these regions, as well as rising production costs in China. Such shifts do not necessarily reflect global fragmentation driven by geoeconomics factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brexit campaign was based on the idea that newly gained British sovereignty and flexibility in global trade governance would facilitate the quick negotiation of preferential trade agreements. We explore how long it may take for a state to negotiate bilateral preferential trade agreements to offset potential losses from International Organizations withdrawals. We address the question of 'timing', and discuss several mechanisms that delay or speed up the implementation of bilateral trade deals after exiting International Organizations. The empirical findings are based on quantitative data and models accounting for the likely simultaneous relationship between International Organizations exits and preferential trade agreements' formation. We show that leaving economic organisations significantly lowers the likelihood of subsequent preferential trade agreements ratification. This effect wears out after about 1 year. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of International Organizations, state benefits' stemming from their membership therein, bilateral trade deals, and international cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines intraregional bilateral trade in virtual water embedded in cereal flows between the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) states. A gravity model is employed to examine whether annual bilateral trade depends on differences in water endowments, but also includes socio-economic and political determinants that affect trade. There is evidence that the abundance of water resources in a country influences trade for a product that is water dependent. Thus, the adverse effect of water scarcity in a country may be ameliorated by encouraging exports of water-intensive cereal crops where water is in abundance and imported where water is scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the bilateral trade costs between Bangladesh and its leading trading partners before investigating the factors that influence Bangladesh's import costs, including the contribution of NTMs. To measure implied bilateral trade costs, we first deploy an inverse gravity equation. We then estimate the determinants of import trade costs at the HS 6-digit product level, applying PPML estimation techniques to a gravity model, using a unique new NTM database developed for the current study. Our results show that imports to Bangladesh are related in an expected way to common trade cost proxies and that NTMs negatively impact imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]