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Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. In this paper we measure the role of household- and location-specific characteristics in conditioning behavioural responses to a wide range of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. We use data from 8,000 rural households in 25 developing countries, compiled in the global database of the Poverty Environment Network. We employ a hierarchical multinomial logit model to identify the importance of characteristics observed at different levels of aggregation on a set of strategies aimed at coping with economic shocks. Results indicate that in response to idiosyncratic shocks, households tend to deplete financial and durable assets, whereas covariate and thus often climate-related shocks predominantly result in reduced consumption. Households in sites characterised by high asset wealth tend to cope with shocks in a more proactive way than those in sites with average or below average asset wealth, but the role of asset types in conditioning shock responses varies across regions. Our findings have implications for rural development and climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important transformations are underway in tropical landscapes in Latin America with implications for economic development and climate change. Landscape transformation is driven not only by national policies and markets, but also by global market dynamics associated with an increased role for transnational traders and investors. National and global trends affect a disparate number of social, political and economic interactions taking place at the local level, which ultimately shapes land-use and socio-economic change. This paper reviews five different trajectories of landscape change in tropical Latin America, and discusses their implications for development and conservation: (1) Market-driven growth of agribusiness; (2) expansion and modernization of traditional cattle ranching; (3) slow growth of peasant agriculture; (4) logging in production forest frontiers; and (5) resurgence of agro-extractive economies. Contrasting trade-offs between economic development and forest conservation emerge across these landscapes, calling for nuanced policy responses to manage them in the context of climate change. This discussion sets the background to assess how reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (REDD+) aims should be better aligned with current landscape trajectories and associated actors to better address climate-change mitigation in forest landscapes with effective and equitable outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conditional incentives are a promising complementary approach to conserve tropical forests, for example, in multiple-use protected areas. In this paper we analyze the environmental impacts of Bolsa Floresta , a forest conservation program that combines direct conditional payments with livelihood-focused investments in 15 multiple-use reserves in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. We use grid-based data, nearest-neighbor matching, and panel data econometrics to compare three forest-related program outcomes – deforestation, degradation, and fires – of participating and non-participating reserve areas. Forest threats were low before and after treatment, because the program prioritized low-pressure sites. Thus, we find significant but small additional conservation effects from the implementation of the program. Notwithstanding, treatment effects are relatively larger in areas with higher deforestation pressure and higher potential agricultural income. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence showing that adverse spatial targeting of conservation incentives, i.e. disproportionally enrolling low–pressure sites, is a prime cause for the low additionality found in rigorous impact evaluations of many existing initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In humans, alterations of circadian rhythms and autophagy are linked to metabolic, cardiovascular and neurological dysfunction. Autophagy constitutes a specific form of cell recycling in many eukaryotic cells. Aging is the principal risk factor for the development of neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, we assume that both the circadian clock and autophagy are indispensable to counteract aging. We have previously shown that the hippocampus of Per1−/−-mice exhibits a reduced autophagy and higher neuronal susceptibility to ischemic insults compared to wild type (WT). Therefore, we chose to study the link between aging and loss of clock gene Per1−/−-mice. Young and aged C3H- and Per1−/−-mice were used as models to analyze the hippocampal distribution of Aβ42, lipofuscin, presenilin, microglia, synaptophysin and doublecortin. We detected several changes in the hippocampus of aged Per1−/−-mice compared to their wild type littermates. Our results show significant alterations of microglia morphology, an increase in Aβ42 deposition, overexpression of presenilin, decrease in synaptophysin levels and massive accumulation of lipofuscin in the hippocampus of 24-month-old Per1−/−-mice, without alteration of adult neurogenesis. We suggest that the marked lipofuscin accumulation, Aβ42 deposition, and overexpression of presenilin-2 observed in our experiments may be some of the consequences of the slowed autophagy in the hippocampus of aged Per1−/−-mice. This may lead during aging to excessive accumulation of misfolded proteins which may, consequently, result in higher neuronal vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spatially-explicit CO 2 emissions of Brazilian soy exports using new bottom-up LCA. • Carbon footprint of MATOPIBA states is 2–6 times larger than Brazil average. • Cerrado has the largest footprint (1.00 tCO 2 -eq.t−1soy-eq.) followed by the Amazon. • Carbon footprint of EU (0.77 tCO 2 -eq.t−1soy-eq.) is 13.8% larger than China's. • Total CO 2 emissions are 223.46 Mt in 2010–2015, of which China imports 51%. Reliable estimates of carbon and other environmental footprints of agricultural commodities require capturing a large diversity of conditions along global supply chains. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) faces limitations when it comes to addressing spatial and temporal variability in production, transportation and manufacturing systems. We present a bottom-up approach for quantifying the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in the production and trade of agricultural products with a high spatial resolution, by means of the integration of LCA principles with enhanced physical trade flow analysis. Our approach estimates the carbon footprint (as tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per tonne of product) of Brazilian soy exports over the period 2010–2015 based on ~90,000 individual traded flows of beans, oil and protein cake identified from the municipality of origin through international markets. Soy is the most traded agricultural commodity in the world and the main agricultural export crop in Brazil, where it is associated with significant environmental impacts. We detect an extremely large spatial variability in carbon emissions across sourcing areas, countries of import, and sub-stages throughout the supply chain. The largest carbon footprints are associated with municipalities across the MATOPIBA states and Pará, where soy is directly linked to natural vegetation loss. Importing soy from the aforementioned states entailed up to six times greater emissions per unit of product than the Brazilian average (0.69 t t−1). The European Union (EU) had the largest carbon footprint (0.77 t t−1) due to a larger share of emissions from embodied deforestation than for instance in China (0.67 t t−1), the largest soy importer. Total GHG emissions from Brazilian soy exports in 2010–2015 are estimated at 223.46 Mt, of which more than half were imported by China although the EU imported greater emissions from deforestation in absolute terms. Our approach contributes data for enhanced environmental stewardship across supply chains at the local, regional, national and international scales, while informing the debate on global responsibility for the impacts of agricultural production and trade. Image, graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As new technologies based on renewable raw materials and biological principles are becoming available, bioeconomic transformation could help to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, bioeconomic transformation is not necessarily sustainable. To design effective enabling and regulatory governance frameworks for bio-based transformation, policy makers have to identify potentially game-changing future technologies and assess associated sustainability gains and risks. Drawing on the concept of key enabling technologies (KETs) put forward by the European Commission (EC) in 2009, this paper defines KETs for the bioeconomy. Based on an international expert survey, we identified KET criteria for bioeconomic transformation and developed overarching super-categories describing technology pathways and criteria dimensions according to the existing society–environment–economy triangle. In this way, this study contributes not only in providing advice allowing new technologies to foster but also in elucidating relationships between the regional origin and the perceived future of bio-based technology development. Moreover, bioeconomy KET visions from different stakeholders have been analyzed, thus providing a basis for future technology research, evaluation, politics, and management. • Identification of perceived criteria for promising sustainable bio-based technologies. • Revealing technologies perceived by experts as potential KETs for the bioeconomy. • Elucidation of bioeconomy type based distribution of bioeconomy visions. • Stakeholder background dependent opinions on bioeconomy technologies and criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of biodiversity conservation initiatives depends on their ability to maintain and restore the integrity and connectivity of ecological systems. Payments for environmental services (PES) can encourage farmers to set aside land for conservation, but landscape connectivity requires coordination among land users. Fairness in the distribution of payoffs has been shown to affect conservation efforts in response to PES, but the sources of inequality in payment allocation mechanisms can be manifold. Here we focus on the performance of conservation incentives under alternative payment modalities and levels of inequality in land ownership. We applied lab-in-the-field experiment with 384 Tanzanian farmers from two ecological corridors. Groups of participants were endowed with either equal or unequal amounts of hypothetical farmland and subsequently exposed to two treatments, namely a fixed individual payment and a fixed payment with an agglomeration bonus. Both payment modalities had positive effects on conservation, but we find no strong evidence for impact of asymmetries in landownership on conservation decisions. Overall, our results suggest that conditional payments can be effective even when land with high conservation value is unequally distributed in ecological corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global commodity supply chains contribute significantly to environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions. Improving supply chain transparency can create public awareness and encourage relevant actors to improve their ecological footprint. We exploit Brazil's Priority List policy for the Amazon region, a public disclosure mechanism introduced in 2008 that effectively reduced deforestation rates, to study how land users and commodity traders respond to the corresponding reputational risk exposure. Specifically, we combine remotely sensed land use data with spatio-temporally disaggregated soy trade statistics covering 15 years and 770 municipalities to measure the effect of priority listing on land-use change, sourcing patterns, and trade destinations. Using the Generalized Synthetic Control method, we find that priority listing led to a sizeable drop in deforestation and a corresponding reduction in pasture expansion. At the same time, soy expansion increased significantly, but instead of expanding into natural forests, it mostly replaced existing pastures and other cropland. The additional soy production was exported predominantly to China, whereas exports to the EU stagnated. • The Amazon Priority List reduced forest loss and pasture expansion. • Soy production expanded, but replaced almost exclusively non-forest land uses. • Increased soy production was mostly shipped to China and not to the EU. • Producers and traders employ strategies to mitigate reputational risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart Farming Technologies enable plant-specific agrochemical applications which can increase the efficiency and reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. However, the uptake of Smart Farming Technologies remains slow despite their potential to enhance sustainable transformation of food systems. The design of policies to promote sustainable agricultural technologies requires a holistic understanding of the complex set of factors driving the adoption of innovations at farm level. This study has a focus on behavioral factors, such as pro-environmental attitude, personal innovativeness and moral norms. Based on an online study conducted in Germany, structural equation modelling is applied to test the predictions of an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behavior, using spot spraying, a smart weeding technology, as an example. The results confirm theoretical predictions and show that indicators of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control have relevant effects on farmers' adoption intentions. The extended model revealed a medium-sized (small) direct effect of moral norms on the attitude towards spot spraying (adoption intention). Personal innovativeness had a small effect on adoption intention, whereas pro-environmental attitude did not exhibit a clear direction of impact. Methodological and policy implications derived from the results are discussed noting that the inclusion of indicators for moral norms can improve the predictive power of models used in future research in this field. Overall, initiatives aimed at facilitating the exchange of opinions and related moral norms as well as collaboration among peers may contribute to voluntary sustainable innovation as it enhances adoption intentions among farmers. • Investigation of spot spraying adoption intention for sustainable weed control. • Extension of Theory of Planned Behavior via three behavioral constructs. • Moral norms affect intention directly and indirectly via behavioral attitude. • Innovativeness and environmental attitude have a small and unclear impact. • Model extensions yielded increased model fit compared to baseline model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In the forest–livelihoods literature, forests are widely perceived to provide both common safety nets to shocks and resources for seasonal gap-filling. We use a large global-comparative dataset to test these responses. We find households rank forest-extraction responses to shocks lower than most common alternatives. For seasonal gap-filling, forest extraction also has limited importance. The minority of households using forests for coping is asset-poor and lives in villages specialized on forests, in particular timber extraction. Overall, forest resources may be less important as a buffer between agricultural harvests and in times of unforeseen hardship than has been found in many case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The research combines economic, historical and anthropological data on the role of forests in local livelihoods in three South American countries. • Results showed the strong economic importance of forests to Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples, despite different contexts and histories. • Non-economic values of forests were also remarkably strong among Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples inhabiting forests for varied time scales. • The utilitarian notion behind nature valuation is not sufficient to comprehensively understand how local populations benefit from forests. • Development policies should support and leverage non-economic forest values and cosmologies, and provide sustainable economic alternatives. Research on the contribution of forests to local livelihoods has so far had a strong focus on quantifying the monetary value of forest-derived products and services. In this paper, we move beyond monetary valuation and integrate the less tangible and sometimes culturally complex dimensions through which forests support local livelihoods. We look at four local contexts in the Brazilian, Bolivian and Ecuadorian Amazon, which differ markedly in terms of their biophysical, sociocultural and geopolitical settings. Combining economic and anthropological data, we used quantitative and qualitative methods, and measures of the ecological impacts of local forest uses. Quantitative analyses drew on datasets from 48 communities, and 510 households, while the qualitative analyses relied on semi-structured interviews with 78 families in 22 communities. Forest-based livelihoods exhibited complex portfolios, diversified production systems, seasonal variation of activities, and different specialization strategies. Beyond a source of subsistence and cash incomes, forests were locally valued by people across all sites in terms of identities, worldviews, territorial attachment, governance, and conservation. Populations with a longer history of interactions with the environment displayed more complex forest-related cultural systems, but even among people who had migrated into the forest in a more recent historical period, forest-based self-cultural identification was evident. At all sites, forests were unanimously recognized as critical to people's health and wellbeing, despite substantial differences in local histories, policy and market environments. The findings underscore the persistent importance of non-economic values of forests as both Indigenous and non-Indigenous groups constantly adapt their forest and land use practices based on transcultural exchange and changing conditions. A focus on economic value as the rationale for forest conservation disregards the striking resilience of cultural values in promoting forest conservation and use by diverse local and Indigenous communities, especially when supported by favorable policies and markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture faces several challenges including climate change and biodiversity loss while, at the same time, the demand for food, feed, biofuels, and fiber is increasing. Sustainable intensification aims to increase productivity and input-use efficiency while enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems to adverse environmental conditions through improved management and technology. Recent advances in sensing, machine learning, modeling, and robotics offer opportunities for novel smart digital technologies to enable sustainable intensification. However, developing smart digital technologies and putting them into agricultural practice, requires closing major research gaps, related in particular to (1) the utilization of multi-scale multi-sensor monitoring in space and time, (2) using artificial intelligence for linking process and data-driven methods, (3) improving decision making and intervention in plant production, and finally (4) modeling conditions and consequences of farmers acceptance. Closing these gaps requires an interdisciplinary approach. Here, we present a research agenda and steps forward to steer research efforts, highlighting research priorities, and identifying required interdisciplinary research collaboration. Following this agenda will leverage the full potential of smart digital technologies for sustainable crop production. [Display omitted] • Research gaps hinder smart digital technologies to enhance sustainable agriculture. • We present an interdisciplinary research agenda required to close these gaps. • Examples illustrate why closing these research gaps is important for sustainability. • The proposed research agenda helps steering research efforts and collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of increasingly complex sustainability challenges, societal transformations of currently unsustainable socio-economic production and consumption patterns are imperative. At the same time, international scholarly debates emphasise a decline in the policy capacity of societal actors to deal with the complexity of putting policy into practice. South Africa's national development strategy of utilising its unique biodiversity for developing natural products and biopharmaceuticals was anticipated by the government to help overcome the country's triple challenge of unemployment, poverty and inequality. Accompanied by a set of national regulations, introduced to safeguard biodiversity thresholds and regulate socio-economic activities along biomass value chains, this policy of a biodiversity economy is framed by the South African government, as a societal transformation. Informed by a plural theoretical lens drawing upon insights from international scholarly literature on transitions and transformations and insights from policy capacity, implementation research and governance literature, we interrogate qualitative empirical evidence from the field for how and whether such transformation has materialised for different bioprospecting actors in South Africa. Asking which factors enabled or limited this transformation, we distil criteria for what we call transformative policy capacity. We argue that transformations are political and deeply context-dependent relying on the resources and capabilities of involved societal actors to put political plans into practice, including the policy target group. We conclude that a biodiversity economy-driven transformation has yet to become a reality for many South Africans, but efforts are being made to foster the policy capacity of central actors and to adapt the regulatory system to be more conducive for the anticipated change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Established in 2002, the Amazon Protected Areas Program (ARPA) supports 120 Conservation Units (CUs) in the Brazilian Amazon, covering 62 Mha. Here, we quantified the impact of ARPA support on reducing deforestation and CO 2 emissions between 2008 and 2020. We started by examining critical methodological choices, often brushed over in the impact evaluation studies on protected areas (PAs). We then applied a covariate balancing method to control for variation in covariates so as to compare differences in deforestation between Strictly Protected (SP) and Sustainable Use (SU) CUs with and without ARPA support as well as to assess the influence of ARPA investment mechanism on the differential reductions. Next, we estimated total reductions in deforestation and CO 2 emissions by using the Adjusted Odds Ratio. We found that ARPA support accounts for additional deforestation reductions of 9 % in SP CUs and 39 % in SU CUs in relation to non-supported CUs. The effects of ARPA investment mechanism were statistically significant for both categories of CUs. CUs plus Indigenous Lands (i.e., PAs) reduced by 21 % (2.0 ± 0.3 Mha) Amazon deforestation between 2008 and 2020. Of this total, ARPA CUs accounts for 264 ± 25 thousand ha, the equivalent of 104 ± 10 Mtons of CO 2 emissions. If deforestation continues unabated, PAs will become the last citadels of the Amazon. However, protecting the Amazon only with PAs does not suffice. Additional investments in a comprehensive conservation policy mix are needed along with a monitoring and evaluation strategy to provide evidence on what works for effective and socially equitable forest conservation. • The ARPA Program supports 120 conservation units in the Brazilian Amazon • Amazon protected areas reduced by 21% deforestation between 2008 and 2020 • Deforestation was 9-39% lower in conservation units with ARPA support • Conservation units with ARPA support reduced 104±10 Mtons of CO 2 emissions • It is central to evaluate the impact of investments on attaining effective outcomes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We integrate original survey data with spatiotemporal covariates for households in Namibia's Zambezi Region. • We then estimate the impact of community-based natural resource management on environmental income and dependency. • Community-based natural resource management fosters livelihood strategies that are, on average, more dependent on the environment. • Households living in close proximity to touristic enterprises are more likely to benefit from environmental income effects than others. Many poor rural households depend on products from non-cultivated environments for subsistence and commercialization. Collective action schemes, such as community-based natural resource management (CBNRM), aim at maintaining natural resource quality and thus potentially contribute to the sustainability of environmental income sources. Little is known about whether and under which contextual conditions these schemes effectively promote environmental income generation or imply trade-offs between wildlife conservation and socioeconomic development. We rely on a unique combination of original farm-household data with a rich set of spatiotemporal covariates to quantify environmental income and dependency in Namibia's Zambezi region at the heart of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then estimate the effect of CBNRM on environmental income and dependency in a quasi-experimental regression-based approach. Controlling for historical variables that affected selection into formal CBNRM schemes, we further explore the role of contextual variation in exposure to tourism activity. Results suggest that CBNRM fosters livelihood strategies that are, on average, more dependent on the environment. However, this effect is driven by outcomes of households that live in close proximity to touristic enterprises, where such livelihood strategies align better with other income generating opportunities than in areas where agriculture represents the only viable economic alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability certification (SC) is one of the most popular private sector approaches to govern social and environmental outcomes of trade in products from agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Based on a sample of 175 peer-reviewed articles, we use a novel mixed methods meta-analytical approach to study the success of major sustainability certifications in promoting sustainable (primary) production practices. We consider both qualitative and quantitative studies. Our main data source are the discussion and conclusion sections of research papers. We analyze conclusive statements about the success of SCs and categorize them into favorable, mixed, and skeptical evaluations. The picture is dominated by skeptical conclusions. Subsequently, we analyze how specific study characteristics affect this evaluation. The distribution of favorable, mixed, and skeptical evaluations is largely similar across the areas of economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Over time, the share of skeptical evaluations has increased. Contextual factors such as primary sub-sector, or country show no significant effects. The evaluations are also largely consistent across different types of SCs. Studies focusing on endpoint sustainability outcomes evaluate the performance of SCs significantly more skeptical than studies that focus on intermediate sustainability outcomes. Furthermore, our study shows that the share of skeptical evaluations significantly increases when a study examines the success of SCs for outcome variables with high implementation costs. Overall, our review points towards a limited success of SCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initiatives to promote community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) have been evaluated with mixed results in socio-economic and ecological outcome dimensions. In Namibia, community conservancies are being established since the 1990s mainly to reconcile wildlife conservation and rural development. As Namibia gears up for participation in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), land use and land cover change and related biomass carbon dynamics may become increasingly important additional outcome indicators for the country's approach to CBNRM. Based on a social-ecological conceptual framework, we identify spatially heterogeneous local context factors that may drive positive and negative effects of CBNRM on vegetation cover in Namibia's Zambezi region. We test our theoretical predictions using panel data in a spatially explicit, quasi-experimental evaluation design and find that, on average, CBNRM somewhat increased elephant presence, but had a negative effect on woodland cover. Heterogeneous treatment effect analysis indicates that CBNRM does work for woodland conservation when communities are located in and around wildlife corridors, which provide tourism income opportunities. Despite success in stabilizing wildlife populations in the region, our results suggest that complementary conservation incentives may be required to make Namibia's CBNRM model fit for REDD+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biochemicals constitute a key sector in the bioeconomy, but their future expansion depends on biomass availability. This study employs an integrated global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to quantify the impacts on land-use change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic indicators, when reducing biomass conversion costs for global biochemical production by 1.5% annually until 2050. Global demand for crop- and forest-based feedstock by the chemical industry increases sharply in 2050, e.g. by 327% for wheat; driving up agro-food prices, e.g. by 3.5% for oilseeds and 3.9% for sugarcane in Brazil. Chemical output decreases in countries that rely on imported biomass for biochemical production, such as Germany, France or the United States; while it increases, for instance, in Brazil and Australia, which use mainly domestic feedstock. Increased biomass demand entails significant natural forest cover loss across South America and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, in North America. Subsequent GHG emissions from global losses in carbon stocks outweigh GHG savings from reduced fossil fuel consumption, resulting in a net increase in GHGs of 107 Mt in 2050 relative to the baseline. Results suggest that R&D investments in bio-based sectors should be complemented with coherent policies to prevent deforestation and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals. • Biomass-to-chemical conversion is studied in a global dynamic equilibrium framework. • Impacts depend on biomass trade flows and countries' feedstock availability. • Increased demand for biomass boosts food prices and causes deforestation globally. • Land-use change emissions outweigh GHG savings from reduced fossil fuel demand. • Innovation in bio-based technologies requires complementary policy action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Rural specialization strategies can be examined within the forest transition framework. We compared smallholder livelihood strategies between neighboring southwestern Amazonian sites at different stages along the forest transition curve. Surveys of 243 households in Pando, Bolivia and Acre, Brazil, within and outside of two major protected areas, confirmed a higher reliance on forest-based income in forest-rich Pando than in Acre. In Acre, forest reliance was higher in the protected area than outside, where forest cover was lower and households were more livestock-dependent. Country context and protected area status were critical to explaining different smallholder specialization strategies in similar biophysical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in CIFOR’s Poverty Environment Network (PEN). Environmental income accounts for 28% of total household income, 77% of which comes from natural forests. Environmental income shares are higher for low-income households, but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought. The poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods, and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests. In absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile, compared to the two lowest quintiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Here, we analyze critical changes in environmental law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2020. Based on a dataset of law enforcement indicators, we discuss how these changes explain recent Amazon deforestation dynamics. Our analysis also covers changes in the legal prosecution process and documents a militarization of enforcement between 2018 and 2022. From 2004 to 2018, 43.6 thousand land-use embargoes and 84.3 thousand fines were issued, targeting 3.3 million ha of land, and totaling USD 9.3 billion in penalties. Nevertheless, enforcement relaxed and became spatially more limited, signaling an increasing lack of commitment by the State to enforcing the law. The number of embargoes and asset confiscations dropped by 59% and 55% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. These changes were accompanied by a marked increase in enforcement expenditure, suggesting a massive efficiency loss. More importantly, the creation of so-called conciliation hearings and the centralization of legal processes in 2019 reduced the number of actual judgments and fines collected by 85% and decreased the ratio between lawsuits resulting in paid fines over filed ones from 17 to 5%. As Brazil gears up to crack-down on illegal deforestation once again, our assessment suggests urgent entry points for policy action., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: The aim of the study was to investigate prevalence and impact of incidental renal masses (IRMs) accompanying increasing computed tomography (CT) work-up for symptomatic aortic valve stenosis (sAVS) of the elderly with regard to the relevance of urological consultation for overall survival (OS)., Methods: A retrospective analysis of pre-transcatheter aortic-valve implantations (TAVIs) CT scans of patients with sAVS (N = 1,253) harboring IRM was performed for 2014-2019. According to the clinical management, groups 1 (urologic consultation) and 2 (findings ignored) were formed and analyzed in terms of OS., Results: The prevalence of IRM was 9% (119/1,253). In 19% (23/119), urological advice was sought (group 1). At baseline, group 1 showed a significantly higher rate of malignancy-specific lesions compared to 2 (p < 0.01). Other clinical parameters (e.g., age, cardiological scores, comorbidities) did not differ between groups (p > 0.05). In group 1, 4 (17%) findings were histologically confirmed, of which 3 (13%) underwent surgery. There was no significant difference in median OS at a median follow-up of 24.7 months between groups 1 and 2 with 35.7 (95% CI, 5.9; 65.4) and 47.4 months (95% CI, 33.0; 61.7), respectively (p = 0.4). In Cox regression analysis, chronic kidney disease but not urologic work-up or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart failure emerged as an independent unfavorable predictor of OS (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.37; 4.36, p = 0.003)., Conclusion: For the first time, a TAVI population with IRM was analyzed from the urologist's perspective. Urologic co-evaluation and work-up does not confer a significant benefit in terms of OS in this particular population., (© 2024 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Background: In the treatment of advanced urothelial (aUC) and renal cell carcinoma (aRCC), biomarkers such as PD-1 and PD-L1 are not robust prognostic markers for immunotherapy (IO) response. Previously, a significant association between IO and a change in splenic volume (SV) was described for several tumour entities. To the best of our knowledge, this study presents the first correlation of SV to IO in aUC and aRCC., Methods: All patients with aUC (05/2017-10/2021) and aRCC (01/2012-05/2022) treated with IO at our academic centre were included. SV was measured at baseline, 3 and 9 months after initiation of IO using an in-house developed convolutional neural network-based spleen segmentation method. Uni- and multivariate Cox regression models for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were used., Results: In total, 35 patients with aUC and 30 patients with aRCC were included in the analysis. Lower SV at the three-month follow-up was significantly associated with improved OS in the aRCC group., Conclusions: We describe a new, innovative artificial intelligence-based approach of a radiological surrogate marker for IO response in aUC and aRCC which presents a promising new predictive imaging marker. The data presented implicate improved OS with lower follow-up SV in patients with aRCC.

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55-60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45-50% at 56 km and 25-30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.