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1. Nonlinear Evolution of Socioeconomic and Spatial Systems.- A: Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics.- 2. Lessons from Nonlinear Dynamics Economics.- 3. Survey of Nonlinear Dynamic Modelling in Economics.- 4. Towards a Dynamic Disequilibrium Theory of Economy.- 5. Complex Transient Motion in Continuous-Time Economic Models.- 6. Economic Structure and Nonlinear Dynamic Development.- B: Spatial Representations of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems.- 7. Microeconomics and the Dynamic Modelling of Spatial Systems.- 8. Spatial Evolution in Complex Systems.- 9. Speculations on Fractal Geometry in Spatial Dynamics.- 10. Complex Dynamics and Fractal Urban Form.- 11. Complex Behaviour in Spatial Networks.- 12. Dynamical Basis of Large Deviations and Power Laws in Complex Systems.- Contributors.

Economic geography and regional economics have since their inception focused attention on the analysis of spatial patterns of human activities, in both the production and the household field. This major field of scientific research is predominantly mirrored in location theory.

In this study various research directions and models centering around SIMs have been analyzed. In the first part of the book the attention has been focused on static developments in SIMs, while the second part has been devoted to an analysis of dynamic aspects of SIMs with particular emphasis on chaos theory.

In the previous chapter we have shown that a SIM which takes into account external stochastic influences is highly dependent on the diffusion component (i.e. the amplitude) of these exogenous forces. However, as mentioned before, various types of fluctuations may influence spatial-economic behaviour, and some of them may be ‘governed’ by deterministic impact mechanisms. In other words, such irregular oscillations may be created endogenously through a non-linear lag structure in the behaviour of a system and described by relatively simple differential equations. This second way of explaining — seemingly stochastic — endogenous fluctuations will be treated in the present chapter by means of concepts stemming mainly from chaos theory.

In Chapter 3 it has been demonstrated that the family of SIMs can be derived from different formulations of an entropy (or utility) maximizing macro approach and hence viewed as an optimum system’s solution. In the present chapter the attention will be devoted to a further investigation into the connections between SIMs and micro-economic theory.

In Chapter 2 various links between entropy (and gravity) theory and spatial interaction behaviour have been discussed and interpreted. It turned out that the entropy concept was compatible with a behavioural interpretation of spatial interaction. In the present chapter an attempt will be made to start off from the entropy philosophy itself and to find a behavioural rationale for entropy maximisation as such.

In the previous chapter the relevance of chaos theory, with special emphasis on spatial systems, has been demonstrated. In this context various important issues still deserve further attention. Firstly, a critical issue — according to Sterman (1988) — is that “the significance of the results hinges in large measure on whether the chaotic regimes lie in the realistic region of parameter space or whether they are mathematical curiosities never observed in a real system” (p. 148). Secondly, there are evidently major questions concerning the validity of both model specifications (notably, are model specifications compatible with plausible economic-spatial hypotheses) and of testability of model results (notably, are model results qualitatively or quantitatively justifiable from possible nonlinear patterns in the underlying data set).

Ecologically-based models have recently become popular tools in dynamic systems analysis. In this chapter the possibility of analyzing SIMs in the context of (dynamic) ecological approaches will be examined from a social science viewpoint.

In the first part of this study the attention has been focussed on static SIMs. The second part of the present study will be devoted to the analysis of dynamic modelling, with particular reference to dynamic SIMs.

In Chapter 1 the need for a behavioural, social science based underpinning of spatial interaction models has been outlined. It turned out that in the history of these models several attempts have been made to offer a plausible description of behavioural backgrounds implicitly present in these models. Such behavioural notions appeared to be particularly interesting from a macro-systems viewpoint. Individual motives (or utility functions) played a much less important role. Since the 1970’s two main streams in spatial interaction research can be distinguished, the first one more macro-oriented and based on the entropy concept and the second one more micro-oriented and based on discrete choice models. In the present chapter the nature and use of the entropy concept will be described. This framework will be extended, in Chapter 3, to a utility interpretation offered by optimization models. Next, Chapter 4 will be devoted to a further exploration of the relationships between discrete choice models and spatial interaction analysis.

This paper will provide an introduction to a new field of research, viz. the sensitivity of the solution trajectory of a dynamic logit model (belonging to the class of discrete choice models) in the light of a multiperiod lag structure. It is well known from recent advances in the area of chaos and turbulence theory that the stability of a dynamic system is critically dependent on various factors, such as threshold values of parameters, initial conditions, and also the lag structure. This paper aims to identify the consequences of different lag structures in dynamic logit models (including also dynamic spatial interaction models). Various simulation experiments will be used to show that the onset of instability of the solution trajectory tends to decrease as the number of time lags increases (depending also on the growth rate of the system).

Orthodox demand theory has received greater flexibility and adaptability to different choice situations from the broad family of Additive Random Utility Models. But this development leaves the major open issues in demand analysis still unresolved. In this contribution special attention is given to alternative theoretical frameworks for the interpretation of Random Utility Models. The analysis conducted opens the way for further developments and, in conclusion, a first outline of a stochastic model, where choice probabilities can be interpreted as function of some “observed attractiveness” in the theoretical framework of bounded rationality, is presented.

This paper aims at analysing the existence of a formal correspondence between spatial interaction models emanating from entropy theory and micro-economic discrete choice theory (in particular, multinomial logit models.). After a concise review of the literature on this issue, the emphasis is placed on an interpretation of formal analogies between both classes of models in a dynamic context. A simple dynamic spatial interaction model—based on optimal control theory—is proposed, and it is shown that the results confirm also the existence of a formal analogy between (macro) dynamic interaction models and (micro) choice models. Similar results are also derived for Alonso's general theory of movement in a spatial system.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between commuting and spatial labour market developments in the framework of sustainability issues. To do so, we propose, first, an exploratory investigation of the effects of inbound commuter flows on employment in regional labour markets in Germany. Next, we address sustainability issues as a common umbrella for the relationship ‘economy-transportation’. In this context, we show that the German production system is faced with negative environmental externalities, which are clearly associated with a specific transport mode, viz. the private car. Negative environmental externalities as a result of modal choices in Germany are confirmed by data from EU-15 countries. Public transport, in particular the train, appears to be more environmentally-benign. Our results bring to light that, on average, commuter flows have a positive and robust effect on employment in the receiving German labour market districts, while, for commuting flows, public transport, especially the train, is a more environmentally-benign mode of transport, compared with the car, in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. In the light of possible policy strategies, the paper argues that sustainability may lead to positive economic effects; in particular, the improvement of the public transport system, which can provide more opportunities for sustainable commuting patterns, may lead to favourable employment perspectives for the local or regional labour force.

This paper deals with the design of general classes of dynamic spatial interaction models. On the basis of a general (well-behaved) multiperiod objective function and of a dynamic model representing the evolution of a spatial interaction system, an optimal control model is constructed. Particular attention is given to the equilibrium and stability conditions. It turns out that it is possible to identify steady-state solutions for a dynamic spatial interaction model. Furthermore, it can also be demonstrated that the entropy model is a specific case of this spatial interaction system. A simple illustration for urban dynamics is given as well.

Interaction analysis has become an important topic in social science research. Especially in spatial interaction analysis - dealing with flows of commodities, persons, information etc. between regions in a spatial system - much attention has been devoted to models incorporating the push and pull effects as well as the distance friction effects between regions. In this context, the traditional gravity model has become a very popular analytical tool. From the seventies onwards it has increasingly been realized that entropy theory - originating from statistical mechanics or from information theory - might provide a new foundation for the use of the gravity model (see, for instance, Wilson, 1970; Batten, 1983; Haynes and Fotheringham, 1984).

Accessibility is a concept central to integrated transport and land use planning. The goal of improving accessibility for all modes, for all people, has made its way into mainstream transport policy and planning in communities worldwide. This unique and fascinating book introduces new accessibility approaches to transport planning across Europe and the United States.

Accessibility is a concept central to integrated transport and land use planning. The goal of improving accessibility for all modes, for all people, has made its way into mainstream transport policy and planning in communities worldwide. This unique and fascinating book introduces new accessibility approaches to transport planning across Europe and the United States.

Contents: Preface 1. Introduction Kenneth Button and Aura Reggiani 2. The Relationship between Mega-regions and Megapolitans: Transportation Planning for the Two Scales Jason S. Myers and Anne Dunning 3. The Global Economic Crisis, Investment in Transport Infrastructure, and Economic Development Andrew R Goetz 4. Distance in the Existence of Political Pathologies: Rationalized Transport Policies and Trade Nihan Akyelken 5. Access to Rail in Urban Areas - Examination of the Number of Stations Moshe Givoni and Piet Rietveld 6. Parcel Distribution Networks for Online Shopping Business, Hyunwoo Lim and Narushige Shiode 7. Discussion of the Necessity of Accessibility Standards the German Guidelines for Integrated Network DesignA" (RIN) Regine Gerike, Andreas Rau and Jurgen Gerlach 8. Transportation Planning of the Future: Mitigating GHGs in the US through Green Litigation Deb Niemeier, Erica Jones and Roger Cheng 9. Matching Words and Deeds? How Transit-Oriented are the Bloomberg-Era Rezonings in New York City? Simon McDonnell, Josiah Madar and Vicki Been 10. Policymaking on Waterside Industrial Sites: an Empirical Study for Flanders Tom Pauwels, Eddy Van de Voorde, Thierry Vanelslander and Ann Verhetsel Index

This important new book provides a valuable set of studies on spatial dynamics, emerging networks and modelling efforts. It employs interdisciplinary concepts alongside innovative trajectories to highlight recent advances in analysing and modelling the spatial economy, transport networks, industrial dynamics and regional systems. It is argued that modelling network processes at different spatial scales provides critical information for the design of plans and policies. Furthermore, a key issue in the current complex and heterogeneous landscape is the adoption and validation of new approaches, models and methodologies, which are able to grasp the emergent aspects of economic uncertainty and discontinuity, as well as overcome the current difficulties of carrying out appropriate forecasts. In exploring diverse pathways for theoretical, methodological and empirical analysis, this exciting volume offers promising and evolutionary perspectives on the modern spatial network society.

Recent years have seen considerable changes in the technology of transportation with the development of high-speed rail networks, more fuel-efficient automobiles and aircraft, and the widespread adoption of informatics in disciplines such as traffic management and supply chain logistics. The contributions to this volume assess transportation interactions with employment and income, examine some of the policies that have been deployed to maximize the economic and social impacts of transportation provision at the local and regional levels and analyze how advances in transportation technologies have, and will, impact future development.

The relevance of evolutionary dynamics theories for investigating the development of sociotechnical systems has recently been recognized. In this framework the logistic growth model is considered by many scientists as an extremely appropriate framework that is able to interpret the dynamics of innovation diffusion. Starting from recent results in the literature on technological dynamics, the present paper focuses on backgrounds leading to different shapes of the conventional logistic function. By embedding these motives in the socio-attitudinal context of the system at hand, the present paper tries to give a new interpretation for the rapid/slow “take off” and dynamics of a given innovation in a spatial setting. In particular, a nested logistic dynamic model is developed here, with particular emphasis on the dynamic growth rate of the logistic function expressing—by means of an accessibility cost function—the preference intensity concerning a given innovation for a certain region/country. Finally, various simulation experiments are carried out for the case of both a two-dimensional and a four-dimensional network. The possibility of both stable and unstable diffusion patterns, depending on the parameter values in the nested “attitudinal” dynamic function, is also investigated.

The present paper aims to analyse inter-regional freight transport movements in Europe in order to forecast spatio-temporal patterns of new transport economic scenarios. In view of the high dimension of our data-base on transport flows, two different approaches are compared, viz. the logit model and the neural network model. Logit models are well-known in the literature; however, applications of logit analysis to large samples are more rare. Neural networks are nowadays receiving a considerable attention as a new approach that is able to capture major patterns of flows, on the basis of fuzzy and incomplete information. In this context an assessment of this method on the basis of a large amount of data is an interesting research endeavour. The paper will essentially deal with a research experiment, oriented towards both calibration/learning procedures and forecasting, in order to compare the two above methodologies as well as to investigate the potential/limitations of the two above mentioned different, but related assessment methods. The first results in this framework highlight the fact that the two models adopted, although methodologically different, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial mapping of the inter-regional transport flows under consideration.

In recent years great attention has been paid to complex networks and to their related theories and models.

In much accessibility research, arbitrary estimates of the distance sensitivity parameters have been used to represent the distance decay parameters in potential accessibility models. These estimates might be considered arbitrary since the choice of value and the choice of the distance decay function is often motivated by statistical indicators of the goodness of fit on spatial flows, given the fact that measures of ‘real’ accessibilities are missing. Starting from these considerations, in this chapter we introduce a new approach, the half-life model originating from the natural sciences, to estimate distance decay parameters. This method is compared with two conventional approaches originating from spatial economic science for the computation of distance decay parameters: the unconstrained and the doubly constrained spatial interaction models. The emerging distance decay parameters will be then considered in the construction of accessibility indicators based on the potential accessibility introduced by Hansen in 1959. In this context, both the mean and the median distance will be taken into account in order to identify MAUP-related issues. The exploration of these three approaches focuses on empirical analyses of accessibility in Sweden at the municipal level for 1993 and 2008. All the emerging accessibility indicators are compared in order to analyse similarities and differences in the hierarchical accessibility levels of the Swedish municipalities. The chapter concludes with some methodological and empirical remarks on the adoption of these three approaches, in the light of possible forecasts and related policy analyses.

The concept of accessibility is linked to the level of opportunities available for spatial interaction (flows of people, goods or information) between a set of locations, through a physical and/or digital transport infrastructure network. Accessibility has proved to be a crucial tool for understanding the framework of sustainability policy in light of best practice planning and decision-making processes. Methods such as cost–benefit analysis, multi-criteria analysis and risk analysis can benefit greatly from embedding accessibility results. This book presents a cohesive collection of recent studies, modeling and discussing spatial interaction by means of accessibility indicators

This important new book provides a valuable set of studies on spatial dynamics, emerging networks and modelling efforts. It employs interdisciplinary concepts alongside innovative trajectories to highlight recent advances in analysing and modelling the spatial economy, transport networks, industrial dynamics and regional systems. It is argued that modelling network processes at different spatial scales provides critical information for the design of plans and policies. Furthermore, a key issue in the current complex and heterogeneous landscape is the adoption and validation of new approaches, models and methodologies, which are able to grasp the emergent aspects of economic uncertainty and discontinuity, as well as overcome the current difficulties of carrying out appropriate forecasts. In exploring diverse pathways for theoretical, methodological and empirical analysis, this exciting volume offers promising and evolutionary perspectives on the modern spatial network society.

Contents: Preface 1. Space in Motion Aura Reggiani and Peter Nijkamp PART I: ANALYTICAL ADVANCES IN MODELLING THE SPACE-ECONOMY 2. Network and Nodal Indices. Measures of Complexity and Redundancy: A Review Nigel Waters 3. Power and Packets: A Spatial Network Comparison of the US Electric Power Grid and the Internet Network Laurie A. Schintler, Rajendra G. Kulkarni, Sean P. Gorman and Roger R. Stough 4. Spatial Data Clustering and Self-Organized Criticality: Empirical Experiments on Regional Labour Market Dynamics Aura Reggiani, Christian Ventrucci, Peter Nijkamp and Giovanni Russo 5. Spatial Effects and Non-Linearity in Spatial Regression Models: Simulation Results for Several Misspecification Tests Thomas de Graaff, Kees van Montfort and Peter Nijkamp PART II: MODELLING TRANSPORT NETWORKS 6. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Management Using Boolean Networks Kingsley E. Haynes, Rajendra G. Kulkarni, Laurie A. Schintler and Roger R. Stough 7. Route Choice Behaviour with Risk-Averse Users Andre de Palma and Nathalie Picard 8. A Decade of Freight Transport Modelling with Virtual Networks: Acquired Experiences and New Challenges Bart Jourquin and Michel Beuthe PART III: SPATIAL AND INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS 9. Variety and Regional Growth: Theory, Measurement and Outcomes Koen Frenken, Frank G. van Oort and Thijs Verburg 10. Modelling the Entrepreneurial Space-Economy: An Overview Peter Nijkamp and Leo van Wissen 11. The Spatial Formation of the Automobile Industry in Great Britain: Does Location Matter? Rik Wenting and Ron A. Boschma PART IV: DYNAMICS IN REGIONAL SYSTEMS 12. Evolution of Regional Employment in Germany: Forecasts 2001 to 2010 Franz-Josef Bade 13. Urban Growth and Territorial Dynamics: A Spatial-Econometric Analysis of Spain Jose M. Mella-Marquez and Coro Chasco-Yrigoyen 14. Using a Spatial Microsimulation Model for the Estimation of the Geographical Impact of British National Government Policies Dimitris Ballas, Graham Clarke, Danny Dorling and David Rossiter PART V: DYNAMICS IN URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS 15. Dynamic Effects of Transport Costs on Urban Shape Francesca Medda, Peter Nijkamp and Piet Rietveld 16. Imperfect Competition and Congestion in a City with Asymmetric Subcentres Andre de Palma, Fay Dunkerley and Stef Proost 17. An ex ante Evaluation of an Urban Project through Property Value Increases: A Hedonic Price Approach Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello Index

An avalanche of empirical studies has addressed the validity of the rank-size rule (or Zipf’s law) in a multi-city context in many countries. City size in most countries seems to obey Zipf’s law, but the question under which conditions (e.g. sample size, spatial scale) this ‘law’ holds remains as yet largely underinvestigated. Another complementary question is whether socio-economic networks in space also show a similar hierarchical pattern. Against this background, the present paper investigates – from a methodological viewpoint – the relationship between network connectivity and the rank-size rule (or Zipf’s law) in an urban-economic network constellation. After a review of the literature, we address in particular the following methodological issues: (i) the (aggregate) behavioural foundation underlying the rank-size rule/Zipf’s law in the light of spatial-economic network theories (e.g. entropy maximization, spatial interaction theory, etc.); (ii) the nature of the analytical relationship between social-spatial network analysis and the rank-size rule/Zipf’s law. We argue that the rank size rule is compatible with conventional economic foundations of spatial network models. And therefore, a spatial-economic interpretation – as well as a network connectivity interpretation – of the rank-size rule coefficient is provided. Our methodological contribution forms the foundation for the subsequent empirical analysis applied to spatial networks in a socio-economic context. The aim here is to test the sensitivity of empirical findings for changes in scale, functional forms, time periods, and connectivity structures. Our application is concerned with an extensive spatio-temporal panel database related to the evolution of urban population in Germany. We test the relevance of the rank-size rule/Zipf’s law, and its evolution over the years, and – in parallel – the related ‘socio-economic’ connectivity in these urban networks. In particular, we will show that Zipf’s law (i.e., with the rank-size coefficient equal to 1) is only valid under particular conditions of the sample size. The paper concludes with some retrospective and prospective remarks.

The present chapter offers a survey of the transport economic literature concerning the value of reliability (VOR) and a discussion of its relevance in integrated transport networks. First, it considers the main microeconomic models that have been proposed in order to provide an identification of the VOR. Secondly, it presents an international overview of the VOR estimations, aiming to ascertain the similarities and differences among transport means and among countries, in both passenger and freight transport. Thirdly, it proposes a discussion that pertains to the relevance of VOR in multimodal transport chains in both passenger and freight transport. Finally, the chapter offers some concluding remarks and highlights future directions of research.

It is hardly surprising that space matters in terms of industrial organization, not only in terms of mere physical distance in relation to accessibility to supplies and markets (Weber 1909), but also in terms of accessibility to general socioeconomic resources (Dicken 1992). Analyses of the spatial organization of industries and networks of firms often focus on production and distribution systems formed by the material flows of production and distribution units. However, the significance of transport operations and activities, connecting the individual production units together in a network of material flows, is often underestimated, and transport seen only as a derived demand activity.