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Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species interactions can have a larger impact on plant performance than direct effects of climate change itself, as shown by Rysavy et al. in this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science. Their study illustrates different ways in which plant-plant interactions can change following climate change, stressing the need for experiments to disentangle direct and indirect impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides insights into the diversity of metabolites produced by plants and how this metabolome varies across different plant species. It explores the concept of plant functional traits and suggests that integrating measurements of the plant metabolome into this concept can offer a better understanding of plant form, function, and ecological context.

Abstract: Species are shifting their ranges, for example to higher elevations, in response to climate change. Different plant species and soil microbiota will likely shift their ranges at different rates, giving rise to novel communities of plants and soil organisms. However, the ecological consequences of such novel plant–soil interactions are poorly understood. We experimentally simulated scenarios for novel interactions arising between high‐ and low‐elevation plants and soil biota following asynchronous climate change range shifts, asking to what extent the ability of plants to coexist depends on the origin of the soil biota. In a greenhouse experiment, we grew pairs of low‐ (Poa trivialis and Plantago lanceolata) and high‐ (Poa alpina and Plantago alpina) elevation plant species alone and against a density gradient of con‐ or heterospecific neighbours. Plants grew on sterilized field soil that was inoculated with a soil community sampled from either low or high elevation in the western Swiss Alps. We used the experiment to parameterize competition models, from which we predicted the population‐level outcomes of competition in the presence of the different soil biota. In the absence of neighbours, three of the four species produced more biomass with the low‐elevation soil biota. As a result of generally similar responses across plant species, soil biota tended not to affect plant interaction outcomes, with the low‐elevation species generally predicted to competitively exclude high‐elevation species irrespective of the soil biota origin. However, the low‐elevation grass Poa trivialis was only able to invade communities of Poa alpina in the presence of a low‐elevation soil biota. This suggests that, at least in some cases, the outcome of novel competitive interactions between plants following climate change will depend on whether shifts in the distribution of plants and soil organisms are asynchronous. Synthesis. Our results indicate that the changing soil communities that plants encounter during range expansion can influence plant performance. However, this is only likely to alter expectations for the ability of plants to coexist following climate change if plant species respond differently to the change in the soil community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the traits mediating species' responses to climate change is a cornerstone for predicting future community composition and ecosystem function.Although species' eco‐physiological properties determine their response to environmental change, most trait‐based studies focus on a small subset of easily measured morphological traits as proxies for physiology. This choice may limit our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on species' demography, and obscure the underlying mechanisms.We conducted a transplantation experiment along a 1000‐m elevation gradient in the Alps to quantify the degree to which changes in plant abundance due to climate warming were predicted by eco‐physiological performance versus common morphological traits.Physiological measurements revealed that warming favoured species with a conservative leaf‐level water use strategy whereas species whose leaf‐level water use was more 'wasteful' were more likely to suffer from the warmer and drier climate. Nevertheless, the predictive power of physiological traits did not exceed that of morphological traits.Our results, therefore, show that while easily measured morphological traits can successfully predict plant abundance responses to climate, eco‐physiological approaches are needed to understand the underlying mechanism. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We investigated patterns of species richness and community dissimilarity along elevation gradients using globally replicated, standardized surveys of vascular plants. We asked how these patterns of diversity are influenced by anthropogenic pressures (road construction and non-native species). Location: Global. Time period: 2008-2015. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Methods: Native and non-native vascular plant species were recorded in 943 plots along 25 elevation gradients, in nine mountain regions, on four continents. Sampling took place in plots along and away from roads. We analysed the effects of elevation and distance from road on species richness patterns and community dissimilarity (beta-diversity), and assessed how non-native species modified such elevational diversity patterns. Results: Globally, native and total species richness showed a unimodal relationship with elevation that peaked at lower-mid elevations, but these patterns were altered along roads and due to non-native species. Differences in elevational species richness patterns between regions disappeared along roadsides, and non-native species changed the patterns' character in all study regions. Community dissimilarity was reduced along roadsides and through non-native species. We also found a significant elevational decay of beta-diversity, which however was not affected by roads or non-native species. Main conclusions: Idiosyncratic native species richness patterns in plots away from roads implicate region-specific mechanisms underlying these patterns. However, along roadsides a clearer elevational signal emerged and species richness mostly peaked at mid-elevations. We conclude that both roads and non-native species lead to a homogenization of species richness patterns and plant communities in mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deciphering how plants interact with each other across environmental gradients is important to understand plant community assembly, as well as potential future plant responses to environmental change. Plant - plant interactions are expected to shift from predominantly negative (i.e. competition) to predominantly positive (i.e. facilitation) along gradients of environmental severity. However, most experiments examine the net effects of interactions by growing plants in either the presence or absence of neighbours, thereby neglecting the interplay of both negative and positive effects acting simultaneously within communities. To partially unravel these effects, we tested how the seedling establishment of 10 mountain grassland plants varied in the presence versus absence of plant communities at two sites along an elevation gradient. We created a third experimental treatment (using plastic plant mats to mimic surrounding vegetation) that retained the main hypothesised benefits of plant neighbours (microsite amelioration), while reducing a key negative effect (competition for soil resources). In contrast to our expectations, we found evidence for net positive effects of vegetation at the low elevation site, and net negative effects at the high elevation site. Interestingly, the negative effects of plant neighbours at high elevation were driven by high establishment rates of low elevation grasses in bare soil plots. At both sites, establishment rates were highest in artificial vegetation (after excluding two low elevation grasses at the high elevation site), indicating that positive effects of above-ground vegetation are partially offset by their negative effects. Our results demonstrate that both competition and facilitation act jointly to affect community structure across environmental gradients, while emphasising that competition can be strong also at higher elevations in temperate mountain regions. Consequently, plant - plant interactions are likely to influence the establishment of new, and persistence of resident, species in mountain plant communities as environments change., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00035-023-00302-8., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2023.)

Microclimate-proximal climatic variation at scales of metres and minutes-can exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, most microclimate studies are temperature centric, and do not consider meteorological factors such as sunshine, hail and snow. Meanwhile, remote cameras have become a primary tool to monitor wild plants and animals, even at micro-scales, and deep learning tools rapidly convert images into ecological data. However, deep learning applications for wildlife imagery have focused exclusively on living subjects. Here, we identify an overlooked opportunity to extract latent, ecologically relevant meteorological information. We produce an annotated image dataset of micrometeorological conditions across 49 wildlife cameras in South Africa's Maloti-Drakensberg and the Swiss Alps. We train ensemble deep learning models to classify conditions as overcast, sunshine, hail or snow. We achieve 91.7% accuracy on test cameras not seen during training. Furthermore, we show how effective accuracy is raised to 96% by disregarding 14.1% of classifications where ensemble member models did not reach a consensus. For two-class weather classification (overcast vs. sunshine) in a novel location in Svalbard, Norway, we achieve 79.3% accuracy (93.9% consensus accuracy), outperforming a benchmark model from the computer vision literature (75.5% accuracy). Our model rapidly classifies sunshine, snow and hail in almost 2 million unlabelled images. Resulting micrometeorological data illustrated common seasonal patterns of summer hailstorms and autumn snowfalls across mountains in the northern and southern hemispheres. However, daily patterns of sunshine and shade diverged between sites, impacting daily temperature cycles. Crucially, we leverage micrometeorological data to demonstrate that (1) experimental warming using open-top chambers shortens early snow events in autumn, and (2) image-derived sunshine marginally outperforms sensor-derived temperature when predicting bumblebee foraging. These methods generate novel micrometeorological variables in synchrony with biological recordings, enabling new insights from an increasingly global network of wildlife cameras., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

AbstractSpecies' distributions can take many different forms. For example, fat-tailed or skewed distributions are very common in nature, as these can naturally emerge as a result of individual variability and asymmetric environmental tolerances, respectively. Studying the basic shape of distributions can teach us a lot about the ways climatic processes and historical contingencies shape ecological communities. Yet we still lack a general understanding of how their shapes and properties compare to each other along gradients. Here, we use Bayesian nonlinear models to quantify range shape properties in empirical plant distributions. With this approach, we are able to distil the shape of plant distributions and compare them along gradients and across species. Studying the relationship between distribution properties, we revealed the existence of broad macroecological patterns along environmental gradients-such as those expected from Rapoport's rule and the abiotic stress limitation hypothesis. We also find that some aspects of the shape of observed ranges-such as kurtosis and skewness of the distributions-could be intrinsic properties of species or the result of their historical contexts. Overall, our modeling approach and results untangle the general shape of plant distributions and provide a mapping of how this changes along environmental gradients.

Investigating how climate change alters selection regimes is a crucial step toward understanding the potential of populations to evolve in the face of changing conditions. Previous studies have mainly focused on understanding how changing climate directly influences selection, while the role of species' interactions has received little attention. Here, we used a transplant experiment along an elevation gradient to estimate how climate warming and competitive interactions lead to shifts in directional phenotypic selection on morphology and phenology of four alpine plants. We found that warming generally imposed novel selection, with the largest shifts in regimes acting on specific leaf area and flowering time across species. Competitors instead weakened the selection acting on traits that was imposed directly by warming. Weakened or absent selection in the presence of competitors was largely associated with the suppression of absolute means and variation of fitness. Our results suggest that although climate change can impose strong selection, competitive interactions within communities might act to limit selection and thereby stymie evolutionary responses in alpine plants facing climate change., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE) and European Society for Evolutionary Biology (ESEN).)

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. A.C., M.S., A.E., and C.T. are associate editors or special issue guest editors of Evolution Letters. Editorial processing of the manuscript was done independently of these editors., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE) and European Society for Evolutionary Biology (ESEN).)

Community ecology is built on theories that represent the strength of interactions between species as pairwise links. Higher-order interactions (HOIs) occur when a species changes the pairwise interaction between a focal pair. Recent theoretical work has highlighted the stabilizing role of HOIs for large, simulated communities, yet it remains unclear how important higher-order effects are in real communities. Here, we used experimental communities of aquatic protists to examine the relationship between HOIs and stability (as measured by the persistence of a species in a community). We cultured a focal pair of consumers in the presence of additional competitors and a predator and collected time series data of their abundances. We then fitted competition models with and without HOIs to measure interaction strength between the focal pair across different community compositions. We used survival analysis to measure the persistence of individual species. We found evidence that additional species positively affected persistence of the focal species and that HOIs were present in most of our communities. However, persistence was only linked to HOIs for one of the focal species. Our results vindicate community ecology theory positing that species interactions may deviate from assumptions of pairwise interactions, opening avenues to consider possible consequences for coexistence and stability., Competing Interests: None., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Predicting whether microbial invaders will colonize an environment is critical for managing natural and engineered ecosystems, and controlling infectious disease. Invaders often face competition by resident microbes. But how invasions play out in communities dominated by facilitative interactions is less clear. We previously showed that growth medium toxicity can promote facilitation between four bacterial species, as species that cannot grow alone rely on others to survive. Following the same logic, here we allowed other bacterial species to invade the four-species community and found that invaders could more easily colonize a toxic medium when the community was present. In a more benign environment instead, invasive species that could survive alone colonized more successfully when the residents were absent. Next, we asked whether early colonists could exclude future ones through a priority effect, by inoculating the invaders into the resident community only after its members had co-evolved for 44 weeks. Compared to the ancestral community, the co-evolved resident community was more competitive toward invaders and less affected by them. Our experiments show how communities may assemble by facilitating one another in harsh, sterile environments, but that arriving after community members have co-evolved can limit invasion success., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Competition plays an important role in shaping species' spatial distributions. However, it remains unclear where and how competition regulates species' range limits. In a field experiment with plants originating from low and high elevations and conducted across an elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps, we find that both lowland and highland species can better persist in the presence of competition within, rather than beyond, their elevation ranges. These findings suggest that competition helps set both lower and upper elevation range limits of these species. Furthermore, the reduced ability of pairs of lowland or highland species to coexist beyond their range edges is mainly driven by diminishing niche differences; changes in both niche differences and relative fitness differences drive weakening competitive dominance of lowland over highland species with increasing elevation. These results highlight the need to account for competitive interactions and investigate underlying coexistence mechanisms to understand current and future species distributions., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km 2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km 2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Context: In the event of an acute cardiac event, on-field equipment removal is suggested, although it remains unknown how lacrosse equipment removal may alter time to first chest compression and time to first AED shock., Objective: To determine time to first chest compression and first AED shock in 2 chest exposure procedures with 2 different pad types., Design: Crossover study Setting: Simulation laboratory Participants: Thirty-six athletic trainers (21 females, 15 males; age=30.58±7.81) Main Outcome Measures: Participants worked in pairs to provide 2 rescuer CPR intervention on a simulation manikin (QCPR manikin, Laerdal Medical, Wappingers Falls, NY) outfitted with lacrosse pads and helmet. Participants completed a total of 8 trials per pair (2 chest exposure procedures X 2 pad types X 2 participant roles). The dependent variables were time to first compression (s) and time to first AED shock (s). The independent variables were chest exposure procedure with 2 levels (procedure 1: removal of helmet while initiating CPR over the pads followed by pad retraction and AED application; procedure 2: removal of helmet and removal of pads followed by CPR and AED application) and pad type (Warrior Burn Hitman shoulder pads; Warrior Nemesis chest protector)., Results: We found a statistically significant interaction between chest exposure procedure and pad type for time to first compression (F1,35=4.66, P=0.04, ω2p=0.10) with significantly faster times during procedure 1 for both the Nemesis pads (16.1±3.4 s) and the Hitman pads (16.1±4.5 s) compared to procedure 2 (Nemesis pads: 49.6±12.9 s, P<0.0001; Hitman pads: 53.8±14.5 s, P<0.0001)., Conclusions: Completing the initial cycle of chest compressions over either shoulder pads or a chest protector hastens time to first chest compression without diminishing CPR quality which may improve patient outcomes. Time to first AED shock was not different between equipment procedure or pad type., (© by the National Athletic Trainers' Association, Inc.)

Adaptation to climate is expected to increase the performance of invasive species and their community-level impacts. However, while the fitness gains from adaptation should, in general, promote invader competitive ability, empirical demonstrations of this prediction are scarce. Furthermore, climate adaptation, in the form of altered timing of life cycle transitions, should affect the phenological overlap between nonnative and native competitors, with potentially large, but poorly tested, impacts on native species persistence. We evaluated these predictions by growing native California grassland plants in competition with nonnative Lactuca serriola , a species that flowers earlier in parts of its nonnative range that are drier than its putative European source region. In common garden experiments in southern California with L. serriola populations differing in phenology, plants originating from arid climates bolted up to 48 d earlier than plants from more mesic climates, and selection favored early flowering, supporting an adaptive basis for the phenology cline. The per capita competitive effects of L. serriola from early flowering populations on five early flowering native species were greater than the effects of L. serriola from later flowering populations. Consequently, the ability of the native species to increase when rare in competition with L. serriola , as inferred from field-parameterized competition models, declined with earlier L. serriola phenology. Indeed, changes to L. serriola phenology affected whether or not one native species was predicted to persist in competition with L. serriola Our results suggest that evolution in response to new climatic conditions can have important consequences for species interactions, and enhance the impacts of biological invasions on natural communities., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Invasive and endangered species reflect opposite ends of a spectrum of ecological success, yet they experience many similar eco-evolutionary challenges including demographic bottlenecks, hybridization and novel environments. Despite these similarities, important differences exist. Demographic bottlenecks are more transient in invasive species, which (i) maintains ecologically relevant genetic variation, (ii) reduces mutation load, and (iii) increases the efficiency of natural selection relative to genetic drift. Endangered species are less likely to benefit from admixture, which offsets mutation load but also reduces fitness when populations are locally adapted. Invading species generally experience more benign environments with fewer natural enemies, which increases fitness directly and also indirectly by masking inbreeding depression. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity can maintain fitness in novel environments but is more likely to evolve in invasive species encountering variable habitats and to be compromised by demographic factors in endangered species. Placed in an eco-evolutionary context, these differences affect the breadth of the ecological niche, which arises as an emergent property of antagonistic selection and genetic constraints. Comparative studies of invasions and extinctions that apply an eco-evolutionary perspective could provide new insights into the environmental and genetic basis of ecological success in novel environments and improve efforts to preserve global biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'., (© 2016 The Author(s).)

Climate change will likely reshuffle ecological communities, causing novel species interactions that could profoundly influence how populations and communities respond to changing conditions. Nonetheless, predicting the impacts of novel interactions is challenging, partly because many methods of inference are contingent on the current configuration of climatic variables and species distributions. Focusing on competition, we argue that experiments designed to quantify novel interactions in ways that can inform species distribution models are urgently needed, and suggest an empirical agenda to pursue this goal, illustrated using plants. An emerging convergence of ideas from macroecology and demographically focused competition theory offers opportunities to mechanistically incorporate competition into species distribution models, while forging closer ties between experimental ecology and macroecology., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)