Search

We study the joint distribution of stochastic events described by (X,Y,N), where N has a 1-inflated (or deflated) geometric distribution and X, Y are the sum and the maximum of N exponential random variables. Models with similar structure have been used in several areas of applications, including actuarial science, finance, and weather and climate, where such events naturally arise. We provide basic properties of this class of multivariate distributions of mixed type, and discuss their applications. Our results include marginal and conditional distributions, joint integral transforms, moments and related parameters, stochastic representations, estimation and testing. An example from finance illustrates the modeling potential of this new model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In actuarial science related to pension systems, it is widely assumed that the rate at which the reserves cover the payment of annuities (calculated for a given number of lives) is equal to the expected rate of return of the portfolios in which such reserves are invested. Given this assumption, pension fund managers may take greater risks to realize higher returns and subsequently reduce their pension liabilities. This study demonstrates that the discount rate used to calculate a two-life annuity and the expected return on the portfolio are not necessarily equal. A stochastic-based model is used to determine the proper discount rate for calculating the two-life annuity. The model includes fluctuations of both the interest rate and the payments made by the annuity. In general, this study contributes to the stability of pension systems by determining the appropriate discount rate when computing required actuarial reserves or the portfolio's required rate of return given a reserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partial moments are extensively used in the field of analysis of risks. This paper aims at extending it to the bivariate case based on copula function and study its various properties. The relationship between survival copula and first-order bivariate partial moments are established. We also investigate some applications of copula-based partial moments and conditional partial moments in the context of reliability, income and actuarial studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the derivation of steady-state probabilities of the power communication infrastructure based on today's cybersecurity technologies. The elaboration of steady-state probabilities is established on (i) modified models developed such as password models, (ii) new models on digital relays representing the authentication mechanism, and (iii) models for honeypots/honeynet within a substation network. A generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) is utilized to formulate the detailed statuses and transitions of components embedded in a cyber-net. Comprehensive steady-state probabilities are quantitatively and qualitatively performed. The methodologies on how transition probabilities and rates are extracted from the network components and a conclusion of actuarial applications is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to shed light on the significance of actuarial science in the banking sector from an accounting point of, And try to find out of the role he plays of actuarial accountant in the Sudanese banking sector and added value that he can add especially In light of a local economy which suffers from violent economic fluctuations that cast a shadow over on. financial stability, and the extent of its ability and contribution to the effectiveness of performance. The study found that Actuaries are active in banking roles despite the weakness of the actuaries who work in the banking sectors in sudan, The study also showed there's a direct relationship between economic fluctuation risks and financial crises need to adopt actuarial accounting methods, also, they have a major role to play to supports the improvement of the quality of financial reporting. The Study recommended necessity of educating decision- makers in the banking sector on the importance of actuarial science and actuarial accountants, who play a key role through actuarial methods that effectively contribute to the bank's ability to overcome economic fluctuations and financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human mortality tends to decline in the long run, which is fortunate for humans, but less so for pension and health insurance schemes and annuity providers. Empirical studies have shown that rates of mortality improvement depend heavily on the age, gender and country in question, and additionally, they also tend to change in time. More specifically, the historical acceleration of mortality decreases among the elderly and a simultaneous slowdown of improvement at younger ages, which are sometimes jointly referred to as the rotation of the age pattern of mortality decline, have been observed in several populations. After a concise summary of the most relevant literature, this paper suggests a simple, largely data-driven methodology with few assumptions for the empirical examination of the rotation phenomenon in historical mortality datasets. These techniques are then applied on United Nations data from the period between 1950 and 2015 for both genders and all 28 countries of the European Union. The results indicate that rotation has indeed taken place in numerous member states, but its presence is far from universal, and it appears to have been notably more prevalent in populations of women than among men. Life expectancies seem to predict degrees of rotation only in the former Eastern bloc despite prominent literature that suggests otherwise, while increments of life expectancies over the observed period are better predictors of the degrees of rotation in the case of Western European women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on lessons and insights concerning an interview‐based, qualitative research thesis undertaken by an honours year university student in actuarial studies, who had no previous experience with qualitative research. Motivations and the need for research of this nature are provided in depth. Observations are presented on key areas of the research process, from the perspective of both research student and supervisors. This informs future students who may be considering qualitative research, who have not previously engaged in this approach. It also informs supervisors in predominantly quantitative disciplines who may be unfamiliar with some of the nuances of interview‐based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The discovery of biomarkers of ageing has led to the development of predictors of impending natural death and has paved the way for personalised estimation of the risk of death in the general population. This study intends to identify the ethical resources available to approach the idea of a long-lasting dying process and consider the perspective of death prediction. The reflection on human mortality is necessary but not sufficient to face this issue. Knowledge about death anticipation in clinical contexts allows for a better understanding of it. Still, the very notion of prediction and its implications must be clarified. This study outlines in a prospective way issues that call for further investigation in the various fields concerned: ethical, psychological, medical and social.Methods: The study is based on an interdisciplinary approach, a combination of philosophy, clinical psychology, medicine, demography, biology and actuarial science.Results: The present study proposes an understanding of death prediction based on its distinction with the relationship to human mortality and death anticipation, and on the analogy with the implications of genetic testing performed in pre-symptomatic stages of a disease. It leads to the identification of a multi-layered issue, including the individual and personal relationship to death prediction, the potential medical uses of biomarkers of ageing, the social and economic implications of the latter, especially in regard to the way longevity risk is perceived.Conclusions: The present study work strives to propose a first sketch of what the implications of death prediction as such could be - from an individual, medical and social point of view. Both with anti-ageing medicine and the transhumanist quest for immortality, research on biomarkers of ageing brings back to the forefront crucial ethical matters: should we, as human beings, keep ignoring certain things, primarily the moment of our death, be it an estimation of it? If such knowledge was available, who should be informed about it and how such information should be given? Is it a knowledge that could be socially shared? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contaduría y Administración is the property of Facultad de Contaduria y Administracion-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Actuarial science is one of the fastest growing careers and continues to be named one of the best jobs in the US based on work environment, job outlook, security, and stress level. Many young people have heard that studying actuarial science can lead to a very good career, yet most have no idea what it entails. The purpose of this article is to introduce the field of actuarial science and to give some insight on what an actuarial scientist does and how to become one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using epidemiological and actuarial analysis, this paper formulates some new actuarial mathematical models, called S-I-DR-S models, for insuring the susceptibles of a population exposed to a communicable disease. Epidemiologically, the population is structured into four demographic groups, namely: susceptibles (S) , infectives (I) , diseased (D) and recovered (R) , with the latter automatically re-entering the group of susceptibles (S). The insurance policies are targeted at the members of the susceptible group who face the risk of infection and death due to the disease. Using actuarial techniques and principles, we determine some interesting features of the model, namely, (a) financial obligations of the parties, (b) present value of premiums, (c) quantum of claims by infected policy holders (PHs), (d) quantum of claims on behalf of deceased PHs, (e) cumulative insurance reserve for annuity and (f) lump sum plan. To check the risk of insolvency, premium adjustment for the PHs is also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of REMAH Journal is the property of Research & Development of Human Recourses Center (REMAH) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Whittaker–Henderson (WH) graduation is a popular smoothing method that has been used for mortality table construction in the actuarial sciences and for the trend-cycle decomposition in time series econometrics. This paper proves that the smoother matrix of WH graduation is bisymmetric (i.e., symmetric centrosymmetric). This result implies, for example, that the first row of the smoother matrix is equivalent to the last row of it in reverse order. We also provide some related results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The position of Liaison Editor is an internal, rotating position held by one of the Co-Editors, carrying responsibilities for handling day-to-day manuscript processing issues, and for taking the lead on scientific initiatives. Co-Editor Debashis Ghosh was Liaison Editor in 2019 and is succeeded by Co-Editor Mark Brewer in this role. Results are presented for all submissions and for manuscripts that were sent out for external review by the Co-Editor, where manuscripts of the latter type exclude those rejected or accepted by the Co-Editors without being sent to an Associate Editor. [Extracted from the article]

The existing literature on modelling provides two main ways of viewing model migration: a modular view, which seeks to decompose models in their constitutive elements, and thus provides a view on what it is that migrates; and a practice-based view, which focuses on modelling as an activity, and understands a model as intricately entangled with its context of use. This article brings together these two sensitivities by focusing on ontologies of modelling. The paper presents a case study of the appropriation of modern finance theory's 'no-arbitrage' models by British actuaries – a process that gradually unfolded at around the turn of the century and led to significant friction within the UK's insurance industry. We can distinguish two main modelling ontologies: a 'risk-neutral ontology', which underpins no-arbitrage models and holds that the value of financial instruments is determined by 'arbitrage'; and, a 'real-world ontology', which assumes that the economic world consists of real probabilities that may be approximated through a combination of archival-statistical methods and expert judgment. The appropriation of the risk-neutral modelling ontology was made possible by the declining legitimacy of actuarial expertise as 'financial stewards' of life insurance companies. The risk-neutral modelling ontology provided an 'objective' alternative to the traditional actuarial models, which explicitly required actuaries to make 'prudent' judgments. Despite the fact that the no-arbitrage modelling was considered an 'objective' affair, the valuation models that insurers use today are strongly shaped by political compromises, a result of the 'rough edges' of models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cost of basic income is typically estimated for a particular year. However, to assess the financial feasibility of basic income, it is also important to consider how much basic income will cost in the future. This is especially important in countries experiencing an ageing population, where the proportion of workers is expected to shrink. This article considers basic income as a universal life annuity and develops two models based on actuarial concepts to estimate the flat tax rate required to finance basic income. The first model considers the cost of basic income over the lifetime of the current population and the second model additionally considers changing population dynamics. The proposed models are conceptually simple, providing a straightforward way to assess the financial feasibility of basic income. Using Singapore data, the models show that the monthly cut-off income separating net contributors and net recipients is around $2710 and benefits around 39 % of adult residents. A tax rate of around 22 % is required to support a basic income of $600. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses Society of Actuaries research focusing on the challenges of middle Americans as they reach retirement, discusses the key issues facing middle Americans, and looks at directions for the best solutions. It focuses on market segmentation, planning issues and strategies, risk identification, and risk management, including solutions for addressing various risks. It also discusses key decisions and relates them to the middle market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]