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Shipping in Arctic waters is subject to technical requirements posed by harsh ambient conditions. Vessels operating in ice-infested waters need reinforced hulls and more powerful engines, for example. These requirements are reflected in the vessel’s ice class, which has specific implications not only for operational issues but also for shipping economics. This article examines the extent to which the shipping costs of wet and dry bulk vessels compliant with the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Polar Class rules exceed those of vessels without an ice class. Descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to estimate differentials in capital and fuel costs, as well as in cargo-carrying capacity. The applied dataset, obtained from two major shipping registries, includes technical details of 21,352 bulk vessels, of which 711 possessed a PC, and the remaining 20,641 comprised the reference category. The results show that Polar Class compliant vessels could be up to three times more expensive to build than vessels without an ice class. Moreover, the respective increase in fuel costs may account for up to 150 per cent given the additional engine power and the increased hull weight. Finally, the reduction in cargo-carrying capacity amounts to 20 per cent compared to the reference category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the gradual decline of Arctic sea ice, shipping using Arctic routes increased from 2010. This led to an upsurge in the number of studies investigating the potential of Arctic maritime routes. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess the extant literature from 1980 to 2017 on comparative studies between Arctic and traditional routes. This review also aimed to provide an initial understanding on route choice decision-making factors and to contribute to the literature by providing suggestions for future research and methodological considerations. The competitiveness of Arctic routes is evaluated from both economic and environmental perspectives. Research themes and methodological characteristics are analysed in order to establish an evidence base in Arctic shipping literature. It is identified that analytical research methods and transport cost models are mainly employed. The results indicate that although Arctic routes can be more cost-effective and energy efficient compared to traditional ones, especially in the long-term, they can mainly serve as seasonal alternatives for bulk and specialised shipping in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Arctic sea ice coverage declines it is expected that marine traffic could increase in this northern region due to shorter routes. Navigating in the Arctic offers opportunities and challenges for waste heat recovery systems (WHRS). Lower temperatures require larger heating power on board, hence a larger demand for waste heat usage, to cover services and maintaining on board spaces temperatures. However, a lower heat rejection temperature increases the WHRS thermal efficiency. The air temperature for the Arctic route selected is colder than that of the seawater, opening the opportunity of having air as coolant. This paper explores the use of two different coolants, air and seawater, for an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) unit using the available waste heat in the scavenge air system of a container ship navigating in Arctic Circle. Using a two-step single objective optimisation process, detailed models of air and seawater heat exchangers are evaluated as the WHRS condensers. The results suggest that an ORC unit using R1233zd(E) as its working fluid coupled with seawater as its coolant is the preferable option to reduce CO 2 emissions. Using the ambient air as the coolant while a less effective option could be cheaper to install. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2005, a dramatic decline of the Arctic sea-ice extent is observed which results in an increase of shipping activities. Even though this provides commercial and social development opportunities, the resulting environmental impacts need to be investigated and monitored. In order to understand the impact of shipping in arctic areas, the method described in this paper determines the travel time, fuel consumption and resulting exhaust emissions of ships navigating in arctic waters. The investigated case studies are considering ship particulars as well as environmental conditions with special focus on ice scenarios. Travel time, fuel consumption and exhaust gas emission were investigated for three different vessels, using different passages of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in different seasons of years 1960, 2000 and 2040. The presented results show the sensitivity of vessel performance and amount of exhaust emissions to optimize arctic traffic with respect to efficiency, safety and environmental impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the cost of container liner shipping through the Northwest Passage (NWP) on northern local communities. Based on some representative communities, concerns of the residents of these Canadian Arctic regions were assessed. Two essential factors to the well-being of the community members—air pollution and oil spills—are considered in our model. The approach was therefore used to evaluate the socio-economic impact of Arctic container liner shipping in Canadian Arctic regions. More specifically, the approach adopted a) uses a logit model to estimate the market share of NWP for commercial liner shipping; b) investigates different scenarios to evaluate the feasibility of commercial liner shipping through the NWP; c) incorporating concerns from the local communities, conducts a socio-economic analysis for the communities. With the analysis of the socio-economic impacts on local communities, the study would help guide governments on how to evaluate and calculate transit fees for transiting NWP. The study is imperative in supporting decision-making to shape Arctic policy. Furthermore, it gives stakeholders an idea of the market dynamics of shipping in the Arctic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artic sea ice loss trends support a greater potential for Arctic shipping. The information of sea ice conditions is important for utilizing Arctic passages. Based on the shipping routes given by “Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report”, the navigable windows of these routes and the constituent legs were calculated by using sea ice concentration product data from 2006 to 2015, by which a comprehensive knowledge of the sea ice condition of the Northwest Passage was achieved. The results showed that Route 4 (Lancaster Sound – Barrow Strait – Prince Regent Inlet and Bellot Strait – Franklin Strait – Larsen Sound – Victoria Strait – Queen Maud Gulf – Dease Strait – Coronation Gulf – Dolphin and Union Strait – Amundsen Gulf) had the best navigable expectation, Route 2 (Parry Channel - M'Clure Strait) had the worst, and the critical legs affecting the navigation of Northwest Passage were Viscount Melville Sound, Franklin Strait, Victoria Strait, Bellot Strait, M'Clure Strait and Prince of Wales Strait. The shortest navigable period of the routes of Northwest Passage was up to 69 days. The methods used and the results of the study can help the selection and evaluation of Arctic commercial routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology for the analysis of Arctic shipping accident scenarios using Bayesian Networks (BN). The proposed methodology is applied to a scenario involving a collision between a vessel and an iceberg. The study aims to identify the most significant causative factors to the potential accident scenarios. It is achieved by undertaking a sensitivity analysis study. The results inform the development of measures to avoid and control accidents during Arctic shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Year-round shipping is becoming common in the Canadian Arctic, a region rich in increasingly accessible natural resources. Currently, an average of two round-trip winter voyages (four single transits) (January, February, March) are made annually through the Hudson Strait to service the Raglan nickel mine in Deception Bay, Quebec. During these winter transits it is common for vessels to encounter pressured ice and become beset (stuck) for hours to days at a time. Pressured (or ridged) ice is one of the most challenging navigational hazards in the Arctic as it is difficult to predict or even detect until a vessel comes into direct contact with it. Using ship logs from 33 one-way winter transits through the Hudson Strait during winter months between 2005 and 2014, we evaluate the temporal and spatial frequency of vessel besetment events and relate these events with satellite based imagery of the region in order to examine the potential of satellite-based detection of ridges for the possible future development of real-time or prediction analytics for ridging events. Results indicate that on average the ship was beset 42% of each transit while in the Hudson Strait and often became beset in areas and times of the year associated with high ridge densities. These findings provide a basis for improving observation and prediction of hazardous ice conditions through the use satellite imagery and historic analysis of besetting events, though additional research is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews challenges of relevance to the future development of Arctic sustainable shipping by considering future demands for vessel types, available alternative energy sources, and novel technologies. Results reveal the need to extend existing concept ship design methods to account for the holistic yet sustainable design of Arctic vessels. Accordingly, the paper introduces a decision support framework for holistic and sustainable optimization of the concept design of Arctic ships for different cold regions and purposes of operation. The method presented simultaneously accounts for eco-efficiency, cost-efficiency, and safety. Demonstration for the case of a battery-driven Arctic offshore wind farm service and offshore support vessels shows that optimized designs could outperform their existing environmentally and economically efficient counterparts. • A framework and method for the holistic and sustainable design optimization of Arctic ships is proposed. • Innovative vessels, alternative energy sources, and novel technologies are considered. • The method is demonstrated for battery-driven offshore wind farm and offshore support vessels. • Optimised assets may outperform existing or retrofitted vessels in terms of safety and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) is an essential component of ensuring the safety of life at sea. Canadian SAR regions comprise vast sea areas, posing challenges to incident response. A wide range of maritime activities takes place, each having a different risk profile. The multitude of national and international regulatory commitments, rightsholder and stakeholder interests, and the need for efficient SAR response in changing climatic conditions, point to the need for effective societal risk governance. This article provides insights in shortcomings and improvement opportunities of maritime SAR risk governance in Canada, as understood by experts from responsible maritime authorities. The relevant current regulatory context and governance practices are described first, giving particular focus to the legal basis, roles and responsibilities, engagement processes with rights- and stakeholders, and the applied risk assessment tools to support decision-making. Subsequently, an exploratory research methodology based on interviews with federal civil servants and literature is performed to understand risk governance deficits, using a set of commonly found deficits identified by the International Risk Governance Council. The results indicate that the main deficits pertain to the lack of organizational capacity and dealing with dispersed responsibilities. Furthermore, deficits are identified in terms of obtaining factual knowledge of the risk, dealing with risk perceptions, understanding complex systems, and adequately involving rights- and stakeholders in risk assessment. The results serve as an initial basis to develop policy and management strategies for alleviating the identified deficits. Acknowledging the limitations of the exploratory study, several avenues for future research are outlined. • Risk governance deficits of Canadian maritime Search and Rescue are explored. • Interviews were conducted with representatives from the Canadian Coast Guard. • Participants identified 18 of 23 risk governance deficits in maritime Search and Rescue. • Deficits may present differently in different regions, but overall patterns emerge. • Results suggest pathways to improve policy and management, and direct future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mandatory Polar Code was finally adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in May 2015. The present article examines the role and contribution of the Russian Federation in the decision-making process of the PolarCode through its proposals, in the formof submissions, statements, and oral interventions. The purpose of these proposals is investigated with respect to the safety and environmental protection goals of the IMO and Russian interests in the Arctic, by looking at the reasoning used by Russia in its proposals. The major issue areas represented in the Russian proposals include, among others, the role of coastal State legislation, environmental regulations, and icebreaker assistance; however, themajority of these do not contribute to the IMO's goals of creating globally uniform standards for maritime safety and protecting the marine environment. The Russian proposals served State interests through misrepresentation and reference to Russia's experience in Arctic shipping. While the latter frames Russia as a leading user of Arctic waters, the role that Russia played in the Polar Code negotiations indicates that Russia has more than shipping interests to protect in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the Arctic is often described as a cohesive region, there is great regime diversity across Arctic states. What factors influence regime diversity in the Arctic and how does that diversity impact users and coastal states? Recognizing the Arctic regime as the intersection of overlapping governance systems, this research compares two regions: the Northwest Passage, Canada and the Bering Strait, USA, applying principles of Most Similar System Design (MSSD). The two regions are parts of a common waterway, now more accessible as a result of diminished sea ice. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the two oil pollution control regimes and investigates the relationship between prevention and response measures in each regime. The Canadian oil pollution control regime is characterized by a large number of measures designed to prevent spills while the U.S. regime features measures intended to assure adequate response to spills. States most able to develop a preventative framework are those with strict legal authority and sovereign rights over their maritime regions. Moreover, states whose national identities are strongly tied to particular regions may be more likely to enact protective measures. The U.S. is dependent on international pollution control instruments in the Bering Strait given the shared jurisdiction of the waterway. Canada operates in accord with its claim that the Northwest Passage are internal waters and has enacted a unilateral pollution control regime. These differences underscore that, absent broader international agreements than exist at present, Arctic waters are likely to remain a patchwork of regulatory regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shipping in Arctic seas is challenging and poses an environmental risk. This paper presents a fictional case involving a multipurpose supply vessel transporting one large object (a 750-tonne compressor) and 24 containers loaded with chemicals and equipment for use by the petroleum industry in western Siberia. With technical details representative of vessels navigating the Arctic today, the fictitious ship Oleum has an ice class sufficient for navigating unaccompanied in the Barents and Kara seas, so no assistance is in range when, in late October, clogged fuel filters cause engine failure and the vessel eventually drifts ashore. Heeling over, Oleum loses both cargo and marine diesel oil. The scenario includes a successful helicopter rescue of the 16 crewmembers and a partial recovery of oil and chemicals by booms and skimmers. Recovery of chemicals with physical properties not allowing mechanical collection is not attempted. The scenario ends as the abandoned wreck is broken down at the stranding location, and containers rupture and discharge their cargo. The scenario postulates a moderate and short-lived environmental impact. The most visible effects of the grounding are the hull itself, the compressor and the spreading effects and degradation of oil and chemicals unmanageable for the clean-up operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May ‘predictability barrier’. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems.

• A general method to combine multiple consequences posed by Arctic ship accidents. • Ecological and socio-economic consequences of an oil spill and life-safety consequences of an evacuation in Arctic waters are considered. • Consequence types are monetized and summed to quantify a total consequence cost. • A framework to qualitatively rate total consequence severity is proposed. • Total consequence severity for different ship types and regions in the Canadian Arctic are evaluated. Risk aggregation is the process of combining multiple individual risks to develop a better understanding of the overall risk on a system. Different risks can have different consequences and different units of measure. This study contributes to the process of risk aggregation by presenting a general method to combine multiple consequences posed by an Arctic ship accident. The method considers ecological and socio-economic consequences of a potential oil spill, and life-safety consequences of a potential ship evacuation. Existing models for each consequence type are adopted. Individual consequence types are monetized and combined to quantify total consequence cost for a given accident scenario. A framework is proposed to assign a qualitative rating for total consequence severity. The qualitative scales of the framework are established using the quantitative method. Total consequence severity is evaluated for different ship types and regions in the Canadian Arctic. Results indicate that Arctic ship accidents involving oil tankers in environmentally sensitive regions and cruise ships in regions associated with long response times are worst-case scenarios, with similar total consequence severity levels. Implications for safe Arctic shipping are that on the basis of total consequence severity, mitigating the potential consequence severity of Arctic cruise operations is of near equal priority to that of Arctic tanker operations. Evaluating total consequence severity of potential Arctic ship accidents provides decision-makers and risk analysts with a data-driven tool to integrate multidisciplinary knowledge for the assessment, management, and communication of Arctic shipping risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A framework is proposed for the quantitative causation analysis of grounding accidents in Arctic waters. • Potential risk factors are identified for grounding accidents in Arctic shipping. • The interdependency of the risk factors is reflected using the AcciMap model. • The critical risk factors are identified for quantitative analysis using the BN model. • RCOs are proposed for decreasing the risk of ship grounding in Arctic shipping. The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of economic globalization and increasing ice melting in Arctic area enables Arctic shipping activities more convenient. Exploring impact of extreme events (i.e., oil spilling) occurring in the Arctic region attracts increasing interest from the shipping industry and maritime traffic community. For the sustainable Arctic development and marine environment protection, it is in need to develop a comprehensive risk assessment framework to suppress potential loss caused by Arctic oil spill event. To that aim, the study quantifies the Arctic oil spill event impact with an ensemble framework supported by the analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. More specifically, we quantify varied factors (e.g., environment, economy, social influence, recovery mode) and establish oil spilling risk level via the help of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in the proposed framework. Experimental results suggest that our proposed framework can accurately quantify influence of an oil spilling event in Arctic area, and thus the potential risk level can be accurately identified. The proposed framework provides a novel and reasonable decision-making tool, which can help Arctic related communities conduct varied activities in a more reasonable yet lower-risk manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic shipping is on the rise, leading to increased concern over the potential environmental impacts. To better understand the magnitude of influence to the Arctic environment, detailed modelling of emissions and environmental risks are essential. This paper describes a framework for environmental accounting. A cornerstone in the framework is the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship tracking data from satellites. When merged with ship registers and other data sources, it enables unprecedented accuracy in modelling and geographical allocation of emissions and discharges. This paper presents results using two of the models in the framework; emissions of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic, which is of particular concern for climate change, and; bunker fuels and wet bulk carriage in the Arctic, of particular concern for oil spill to the environment. Using the framework, a detailed footprint from Arctic shipping with regards to operational emissions and potential discharges is established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea routes have for long attracted interest from observers and shipping companies because of their shorter distances between the Atlantic and the Pacific. The prevalence of sea ice prevented the real development of a significant traffic, but did not prevent research from trying to assess the economic viability of these routes. With the actual present melting of sea ice in the Arctic, this effort at modeling the profitability of Arctic shipping routes received a new impetus. However, the conclusions of these studies vary widely, depending on the chosen parameters and their value. What can be said of these models, from 1991 until 2013, and to what extent can a model be drawn, capitalizing on twenty years of simulations? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In addition to the public service obligations shipping companies must address in delivering maritime freight to remote communities, there is the overlay of an inhospitable climate, absent or poor infrastructure, and seasonality that makes serving Arctic communities extremely difficult for ship operators. As governments face financial difficulties, there is pressure placed on the existing procurement processes to expect more and more of ship operators while at the same time holding the line on operator subsidies, if they exist. This research article examines shipping services and management practices in Canada''s eastern Arctic (Nunavut population 33,000) and contrast them with those in Greenland (population 56,000). Greenland appears to benefit from more modern vessels provided by a single corporate entity (Royal Arctic Line) while Canadian operations suffer from lack of investment and a piecemeal approach. The article is based on interviews with the companies providing services and with relevant government agencies and departments, identifying the key issues and obstacles faced by ship operators and key changes they need in government procurement policies. It identifies areas for change that might deliver more cost effective services with incentives that might ensure such savings were passed onto the final consumer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Arctic Ocean is increasingly becoming accessible to international shipping as a result of the reduction in Arctic sea ice. Commercial shipping may seek to transit the Arctic Ocean from either the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean and, as a result, the legal regime of straits has significance for trans-Arctic navigation. In this article, current developments in Arctic shipping are assessed and consideration is given to certain Arctic straits that could prove to be pivotal in future Arctic navigation and shipping. These straits include the Bering Strait, Nares Strait, Davis Strait, Fram Strait, and Denmark Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]