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This Special Issue is the culmination of close collaboration between universities, geological surveys and Geoscience Australia, to study an extremely poorly exposed segment of northwestern New Sout...

A novel computer vision methodology is proposed to monitor fatigue cracks of steel structures using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Through a short video recorded by a consumer-grade camera carried by a UAV, this methodology tracks the surface motion of the structure under fatigue loading and detects fatigue cracks by revealing the differential motion patterns induced by the cracks. Three main steps are developed to process the video for fatigue detection. First, the global motion of the UAV embedded in image frames in the video is compensated through geometric transformation. The transformation matrices are computed and applied to the video frames to obtain motion-compensated frames. Next, feature points are identified from each image frame as natural targets to track the surface motion. Subsequently, with the compensated surface motion tracked by the feature points, a localized circular region scans the entire surface to reveal differential movement patterns for crack identification. Compared with traditional computer vision techniques that are based on edge features for crack detection, the proposed method detects the breathing behavior of fatigue cracks; therefore, it is able to distinguish true cracks from crack-like features and structural boundaries. Laboratory validation is performed to validate the proposed methodology.

Whether immigrants advance in labor markets relative to natives is a fundamental question in immigration economics. It is difficult to answer this question for the Age of Mass Migration, when US immigration was at its peak. New datasets of linked census records show that immigrants experienced substantial "catching up" relative to natives' occupational status from 1850 to 1880, but not from 1900 to 1930. This change was not due to the shift in immigrant source countries. Instead, it was rooted in a sizable change in natives' occupations. The results revise the influential view that European immigrants "worked their way up".

Fatigue cracks are critical structural concerns for steel highway bridges, and fatigue initiation and propagation activity continues undetected between physical bridge inspections. Monitori...

We present new LA ICP-MS detrital zircon data from Meso- and Neoproterozoic sedimentary basins located in the northern and western parts of the Siberian Craton. Along the western cratonic margin (Turukhansk Uplift, northern Yenisei Ridge), the basins accumulated predominantly 2.6–2.5 Ga and 1.9–1.85 Ga erosional products, while the main sources for the fill of intracratonic basin to the northeast near the Anabar Shield (East Anabar basin) were 2.9–2.7 Ga and 2.1–1.95 Ga old igneous rocks. The studied Meso- to Early Neoproterozoic sandstones were deposited in rift-related or passive margin settings, and underwent major craton-wide recycling to produce late Ediacaran silicilastic successions. Meso- to Early Neoproterozoic sandstones are immature to submature pointing to erosion of proximal Archean and Paleoproterozoic crustal units. The unique detrital age spectra for the northeast and western basins indicate provinciality and provide a basis for unravelling the age of buried domains of the Siberian Craton basement.

Iberia, Avalonia and the “Armorican” terranes form key constituents of the Variscan–Appalachian orogen, but their Neoproterozoic origins along the northern Gondwanan margin continue to be strongly debated. Here, we present a new detrital zircon U–Pb–Hf dataset from Neoproterozoic–Silurian sedimentary sequences in NW Iberia and Avalonia, in conjunction with the comprehensive existing datasets from potential source cratons, to demonstrate that the provenance of each terrane is relatively simple and can be traced back to three major cratons. The enigmatic Tonian–Stenian detrital zircons in autochthonous Iberian rocks were derived from the Saharan metacraton in the latest Neoproterozoic–early Cambrian. Avalonia is commonly considered to have been derived from the Amazonian margin of Gondwana, but the hafnium isotopic characteristics of the detrital zircon grains in early Neoproterozoic rocks bear much stronger similarities to Baltica. The hafnium isotopic array also suggests the early Avalonian oceanic arc was built on a sliver of “Grenvillian-type crust” (~ 2.0–1.0 Ga) possibly of Baltican affinity at ~ 800 Ma, prior to accretion with a continental margin at ~ 640 Ma. The Upper Allochthon of Iberia is frequently linked to the West African Craton in the late Neoproterozoic–early Cambrian, however the hafnium isotopic array presented here does not support this connection; rather it is more similar to the hafnium array from Avalonia. The Armorican terranes have strong detrital zircon isotopic links to the West African Craton during the late Neoproterozoic–Cambrian.

The precipitation response to radiative forcing (RF) can be decomposed into a fast precipitation response (FPR), which depends on the atmospheric component of RF, and a slow response, which depends on surface temperature change. We present the first detailed climate model study of the FPR due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes. The FPR depends strongly on the altitude of ozone change. Increases below about 3 km cause a positive FPR; increases above cause a negative FPR. The FPR due to stratospheric ozone change is, per unit RF, about 3 times larger than that due to tropospheric ozone. As historical ozone trends in the troposphere and stratosphere are opposite in sign, so too are the FPRs. Simple climate model calculations of the time-dependent total (fast and slow) precipitation change, indicate that ozone's contribution to precipitation change in 2011, compared to 1765, could exceed 50% of that due to CO2 change.

Most granites and related calc-alkaline silicic volcanic rocks from the United States and New Zealand Cordillera are saturated with zircon between 65 and 70 wt% SiO2. For this silica interval, zircon saturation temperatures ( T zr) are universally lower ( 900 °C). The values contrast with T zr from alkaline rocks from the Cenozoic U.S. Cordillera, which are typically >800 °C for 65–70 wt% SiO2. Case studies of titanium-in-zircon thermometry from the U.S. Cordillera also suggest that alkaline magma injections into granitic magma chambers are hot, but calc-alkaline magma injections are usually cooler. A model is presented suggesting that silicic Cordilleran magmas form in magmatic arcs where hydrous basaltic magmas solidify in the arc root, producing mafic underplates that exsolve aqueous fluids, which transfer to the crust and promote water-fluxed partial melting at ambient pressure-temperature (∼750–800 °C at 8 kbar) conditions. Subsequent rock-buffered melting reactions modulate the water content of arc magmas. The granitic partial melts are water undersaturated, rise adiabatically as increments, but stall in the middle to upper crust, building cool and hydrous, crystal-rich magma chambers (batholiths). However, injections of hotter magmas are required to drive volcanic eruption. In the backarc, granitic magma chambers are intermittently recharged with hotter, drier alkaline magmas, which are produced mostly by decompression melting during lithospheric extension, not hydrous fluxing. This highlights the control of subduction dynamics on water content and consequently magmatic temperatures in silicic magma systems.

A compilation of magmatic ages from the Mesozoic South China Block suggests a number of “magmatic quiescence” periods at ca. 205–195 Ma, ca. 150–140 Ma and ca. 125–115 Ma, casting doubt on tectonic models that suggest ongoing Andean-type subduction along the South China continental margin. However, SIMS U-Pb analyses on two detrital zircon samples from the Cretaceous Lumuwan Formation on Hainan Island, southeast China, reveal three major age peaks at ca. 120 Ma, ca. 155 Ma and ca. 235 Ma. Zircons of these ages are mostly euhedral and show typical magmatic oscillatory zoning, suggesting short-distance transport from nearby magmatic sources. The extremely rare occurrence of ca. 120 Ma magmatic records onshore suggests that detrital zircons of this age population may be derived from a source proximal to Hainan Island but presently missing. Therefore, our data provide new evidence for ongoing magmatic activity in late Mesozoic South China. In situ Hf and O isotope analyses of the Mesozoic detrital zircons reveal large variations in both eHf(t) (− 21.2 to 10.5) and δ18O (4.4‰ to 13.6‰) values. A general negative correlation between them suggests the reworking of old supracrustal materials (average crustal residence age of ca. 2.0 Ga) by juvenile mantle-derived magmas. The progression of increasing eHf(t) and decreasing δ18O values of zircons from the Triassic to the Cretaceous suggests progressive crustal growth during the Mesozoic. The results are consistent with hybridization at an active continental margin. We briefly review tectonic models for the Indosinian orogeny and suggest that the petrologic evidence indicates that Mesozoic magmatism was part of the circum-Pacific accretionary orogens that formed along the continental margin of East Asia no later than ca. 250 Ma and continued at least to the late Cretaceous.

We construct datasets of linked census records to study internal migrants' selection and destination choices during the first decades of the “Great Migration” (1910–1930). We study both whites and blacks and intra- and inter-regional migration. While there is some evidence of positive selection, the degree of selection was small and participation in migration was widespread. Differences in background, including initial location, cannot account for racial differences in destination choices. Blacks and whites were similarly responsive to pre-existing migrant stocks from their home state, but black men were more deterred by distance, attracted to manufacturing, and responsive to labor demand.

Across the Archaean to Proterozoic transition, the composition of newly-formed felsic continental crust changed from tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite (TTG) to calc-alkaline granitoid, possibly coinciding with the emergence of plate tectonics. Nevertheless, TTG suites were sporadically produced in Proterozoic and Phanerozoic orogenic belts, and such occurrences may provide petrological and tectonic insights into the formation of ancient continents. Here we demonstrate that the ca 1560 Ma Forest Home TTG plutonic suite in the Georgetown Inlier, NE Australia, was derived from partial melting of spatially-associated mafic rocks in a post-collisional setting. The studied TTG rocks have a ‘high-pressure’ geochemical signature, with elevated Sr, low heavy rare earth element and low high field strength element contents. Established petrogenetic models suggest they were derived by partial melting either of hydrated basaltic crust at >70 km depth or enriched lithospheric mantle, or by fractionation of lower-pressure mafic magmas. Using phase equilibrium calculations and trace-element modelling, we show that the geochemical signature of the Georgetown TTG likely resulted from fluid-fluxed crustal melting at relatively shallow depths (25–35 km), consistent with field observations and the inferred metamorphic evolution of the inlier. Our results suggest that the chemical variability of TTGs can reflect the variable availability of fluids rather than depth of melting, which has implications for tectonic processes responsible for the formation of early continental crust.

Traditional ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques have been widely used to detect surface and sub-surface defects of welds. UT inspection is a contact method which burdens the manufacturer by storing hot specimens for inspection when the material is cool. Additionally, UT is only valid for 5 mm specimens or thicker and requires a highly skilled operator to perform the inspections and interpret the signals. Infrared thermography (IRT) has the potential to be implemented for weld inspections due to its non-contact nature. In this study, the feasibility of using IRT to overcome the limitations of UT inspection is investigated to detect inclusion, porosity, cracking, and lack of fusion in 38 weld specimens with thicknesses of 3, 8 and 13 mm. UT inspection was also performed to locate regions containing defects in the 8 mm and 13 mm specimens. Results showed that regions diagnosed with defects by the UT inspection lost heat faster than the sound weld. The IRT method was applied to six 3 mm specimens to detect their defects and successfully detected lack of fusion in one of them. All specimens were cut at the locations indicated by UT and IRT methods which proved the presence of a defect in 86% of the specimens. Despite the agreement with the UT inspection, the proposed IRT method had limited success in locating the defects in the 8 mm specimens. To fully implement in-line IRT-based weld inspections more investigations are required.

Distortion-induced fatigue cracks caused by differential deflections between adjacent girders are common issues for steel girder bridges built prior to the mid-1980s in the United States. Monitoring these fatigue cracks is essential to ensure bridge structural integrity. Despite various level of success of crack monitoring methods over the past decades, monitoring distortion-induced fatigue cracks is still challenging due to the complex structural joint layout and unpredictable crack propagation paths. Previously, the authors proposed soft elastomeric capacitor (SEC), a large-size flexible capacitive strain sensor, for monitoring in-plane fatigue cracks. The crack growth can be robustly identified by extracting the crack growth index (CGI) from the measured capacitance signals. In this study, the SECs are investigated for monitoring distortion-induced fatigue cracks. A dense array of SECs is proposed to monitor a large structural surface with fatigue-susceptible details. The effectiveness of this strategy has been verified through a fatigue test of a large-scale bridge girder to cross-frame connection model. By extracting CGIs from the SEC arrays, distortion-induced fatigue crack growth can be successfully monitored.

A capacitance based large-area electronics strain sensor, termed soft elastomeric capacitor (SEC) has shown various advantages in infrastructure sensing. The ability to cover large area enables to reflect mesoscale structural deformation, highly stretchable, easy to fabricate and low-cost feature allow full-scale field application for civil structure. As continuing efforts to realize full-scale civil infrastructure monitoring, in this study, new sensor board has been developed to implement the capacitive strain sensing capability into wireless sensor networks. The SEC has extremely low-level capacitance changes as responses to structural deformation; hence it requires high-gain and low-noise performance. For these requirements, AC (alternating current) based Wheatstone bridge circuit has been developed in combination a bridge balancer, two-step amplifiers, AM-demodulation, and series of filtering circuits to convert low-level capacitance changes to readable analog voltages. The new sensor board has been designed to work with the wireless platform that uses Illinois Structural Health Monitoring Project (ISHMP) wireless sensing software Toolsuite and allow 16bit lownoise data acquisition. The performances of new wireless capacitive strain sensor have been validated series of laboratory calibration tests. An example application for fatigue crack monitoring is also presented.

The Cretaceous Mount Daniel Complex (MDC) in northern Fiordland, New Zealand was emplaced as a 50 m-thick dyke and sheet complex into an active shear zone at the base of a Cordilleran magmatic arc. It was emplaced below the 20–25 km-thick, 125.3 ± 1.3 Ma old Western Fiordland Orthogneiss (WFO) and is characterized by metre-scale sheets of sodic, low and high Sr/Y diorites and granites. 119.3 ± 1.2 Ma old, pre-MDC lattice dykes and 117.4 ± 3.1 Ma late-MDC lattice dykes constrain the age of the MDC itself. Most dykes were isoclinally folded as they intruded, but crystallised within this deep-crustal, magma-transfer zone as the terrain cooled and was buried from 25 to 50 km (9–14 kbar), based on published P-T estimated from the surrounding country rocks. Zircon grains formed under these magmatic/granulite facies metamorphic conditions were initially characterized by conservatively assigning zircons with oscillatory zoning as igneous and featureless rims as metamorphic, representing 54% of the analysed grains. Further petrological assignment involved additional parameters such as age, morphology, Th/U ratios, REE patterns and Ti-in-zircon temperature estimates. Using this integrative approach, assignment of analysed grains to metamorphic or igneous groupings improved to 98%. A striking feature of the MDC is that only ~ 2% of all igneous zircon grains reflect emplacement, so that the zircon cargo was almost entirely inherited, even in dioritic magmas. Metamorphic zircons of MDC show a cooler temperature range of 740–640 °C, reflects the moderate ambient temperature of the lower crust during MDC emplacement. The MDC also provides a cautionary tale: in the absence of robust field and microstructural relations, the igneous-zoned zircon population at 122.1 ± 1.3 Ma, derived mostly from inherited zircons of the WFO, would be meaningless in terms of actual magmatic emplacement age of MDC, where the latter is further obscured by younger (ca. 114 Ma) metamorphic overgrowths. Thus, our integrative approach provides the opportunity to discriminate between igneous and metamorphic zircon within deep-crustal complexes. Also, without the tight field relations at Mt Daniel, the scatter beyond a statistically coherent group might be ascribed to the presence of “antecrysts”, but it is clear that the WFO solidified before the MDC was emplaced, and these older “igneous” grains are inherited. The bimodal age range of inherited igneous grains, dominated by ~ 125 Ma and 350–320 Ma age clusters, indicate that the adjacent WFO and a Carboniferous metaigneous basement were the main sources of the MDC magmas. Mafic lenses, stretched and highly attenuated into wisps within the MDC and dominated by ~ 124 Ma inherited zircons, are considered to be entrained restitic material from the WFO. A comparison with lower- and upper-crustal, high Sr/Y metaluminous granites elsewhere in Fiordland shows that zircon inheritance is common in the deep crust, near the source region, but generally much less so in coeval, shallow magma chambers (plutons). This is consistent with previous modelling on rapid zircon dissolution rates and high Zr saturation concentrations in metaluminous magmas. Accordingly, unless unusual circumstances exist, such as MDC preservation in the deep crust, low temperatures of magma generation, or rapid emplacement and crystallization at higher structural levels, information on zircon inheritance in upper crustal, Cordilleran plutons is lost during zircon dissolution, along with information on the age, nature and variety of the source material. The observation that dioritic magmas can form at these low temperatures (

Peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) is the most important reservoir species for nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the remote troposphere. Upon decomposition in remote regions, PAN promotes efficient ozone production. We evaluate monthly mean PAN abundances from global chemical transport model simulations (HTAP1) for 2001 with measurements from five northern mid-latitude mountain sites (four European and one North American). The multi-model mean generally captures the observed monthly mean PAN but individual models simulate a factor of ~ 4–8 range in monthly abundances. We quantify PAN source-receptor relationships at the measurement sites with sensitivity simulations that decrease regional anthropogenic emissions of PAN (and ozone) precursors by 20 % from North America (NA), Europe (EU), and East Asia (EA). The HTAP1 models attribute more of the observed PAN at Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) to emissions in NA and EA, and less to EU, than a prior trajectory-based estimate. The trajectory-based and modeling approaches agree that EU emissions play a role in the observed springtime PAN maximum at Jungfraujoch. The signal from anthropogenic emissions on PAN is strongest at Jungfraujoch and Mount Bachelor (Oregon, U.S.A.) during April. In this month, PAN source-receptor relationships correlate both with model differences in regional anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) emissions and with ozone source-receptor relationships. PAN observations at mountaintop sites can thus provide key information for evaluating models, including links between PAN and ozone production and source-receptor relationships. Establishing routine, long-term, mountaintop measurements is essential given the large observed interannual variability in PAN.

Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an inverted intermediate complexity climate model, which follows prescribed global warming pathways to stabilization at 1.5 or 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and which incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 17–23% (47–56 GtC) for stabilization at 1.5 °C, and 9–13% (52–57 GtC) for 2.0 °C stabilization. In our simulations these feedback processes respond more quickly at temperatures below 1.5 °C, and the differences between the 1.5 and 2 °C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding holds for transient emission pathways to 2100 and does not account for longer-term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming.

Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS., Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.

Most scientific texts are written for the purpose of publication, and most authors prefer publication in prestigious peer-reviewed outlets. Written by the editor of a leading journal in economic history, this chapter discusses how a compelling question, clear analysis and description, original and persuasive insights, and efforts to relate the findings to existing and future research form the key elements of successful studies that are published well.

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

This article documents and explores black–white differences in US women’s labor force participation, occupations, and wages from 1940 to 2014. It draws on closely related research on selection into the labor force, discrimination, and prelabor market characteristics, such as test scores, that are strongly associated with subsequent labor market outcomes. Both black and white women significantly increased their labor force participation in this period, with white women catching up to black women by 1990. Black–white differences in occupational and wage distributions were large circa 1940; they have narrowed significantly since then as black women’s relative outcomes improved. Following a period of rapid convergence, the racial wage gap for women widened after 1980 in census data. Differences in human capital, which are rooted in the history of racial discrimination, are an empirically important underpinning of the black–white wage gap throughout the period studied.

The effect of ozone and fine particulate matter on human health is dependent on emissions and climate change. Here the effects of climate change on air pollution mortality are isolated, with increases predicted in all regions except Africa. Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are associated with premature human mortality1,2,3,4; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term5, and on climate change6,7. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change8,9 used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models10,11,12. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models13 to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (−76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Methane emissions contribute to global warming, damage public health and reduce the yield of agricultural and forest ecosystems. Quantifying these damages to the planetary commons by calculating the social cost of methane (SCM) facilitates more comprehensive cost-benefit analyses of methane emissions control measures and is the first step to potentially incorporating them into the marketplace. Use of a broad measure of social welfare is also an attractive alternative or supplement to emission metrics focused on a temperature target in a given year as it incentivizes action to provide benefits over a broader range of impacts and timescales. Calculating the SCM using consistent temporal treatment of physical and economic processes and incorporating climate- and air quality-related impacts, we find large SCM values, e.g. ∼$2400 per ton and ∼$3600 per ton with 5% and 3% discount rates respectively. These values are ∼100 and 50 times greater than corresponding social costs for carbon dioxide. Our results suggest that ∼110 of 140 Mt of identified methane abatement via scaling up existing technology and policy options provide societal benefits that outweigh implementation costs. Within the energy sector, renewables compare far better against use of natural gas in electricity generation when incorporating these social costs for methane. In the agricultural sector, changes in livestock management practices, promoting healthy diets including reduced beef and dairy consumption, and reductions in food waste have been promoted as ways to mitigate emissions, and these are shown here to indeed have the potential to provide large societal benefits (∼$50–150 billion per year). Examining recent trends in methane and carbon dioxide, we find that increases in methane emissions may have offset much of the societal benefits from a slowdown in the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions. The results indicate that efforts to reduce methane emissions via policies spanning a wide range of technical, regulatory and behavioural options provide benefits at little or negative net cost. Recognition of the full SCM, which has typically been undervalued, may help catalyze actions to reduce emissions and thereby provide a broad set of societal benefits.

This paper documents and explores black-white differences in U.S. women’s labor force participation, occupations, and wages from 1940 to 2014. It draws on closely related research on selection into the labor force, discrimination, and pre-labor market characteristics, such as test scores, that are strongly associated with subsequent labor market outcomes. Both black and white women significantly increased their labor force participation in this period, with white women catching up to black women by 1990. Black-white differences in occupational and wage distributions were large circa 1940. They narrowed significantly as black women’s relative outcomes improved. Following a period of rapid convergence, the racial wage gap for women widened after 1980 in census data. Differences in human capital are an empirically important underpinning of the black-white wage gap throughout the period studied.

We document the intergenerational mobility of black and white American men from 1880 through 2000 by building new historical datasets and combining them with modern data to cover the middle and late twentieth century. We find large disparities, with white children having far better chances of escaping the bottom of the income distribution than black children in every generation. This mobility gap was more important in proximately determining each generation’s racial income gap than was the gap in parents’ economic status. Evidence suggests that human capital disparities, conditional on parents’ status, underpinned a substantial part of the mobility gap.

A large-area electronics (LAE) strain sensor, termed soft elastomeric capacitor (SEC), has shown great promise in fatigue crack monitoring. The SEC is able to monitor strain changes over a mesoscale structural surface and endure large deformations without being damaged under cracking. Previous tests verified that the SEC is able to detect, localize, and monitor fatigue crack activities under low-cycle fatigue loading. In this paper, to examine the SEC’s capability of monitoring high-cycle fatigue cracks, a compact specimen is tested under cyclic tension, designed to ensure realistic crack opening sizes representative of those in real steel bridges. To overcome the difficulty of low signal amplitude and relatively high noise level under high-cycle fatigue loading, a robust signal processing method is proposed to convert the measured capacitance time history from the SEC sensor to power spectral densities (PSD) in the frequency domain, such that signal’s peak-to-peak amplitude can be extracted at the dominant loading frequency. A crack damage indicator is proposed as the ratio between the square root of the amplitude of PSD and load range. Results show that the crack damage indicator offers consistent indication of crack growth.

Stepanov et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol, 2017) question our conclusion that the UPVs in southern Tibet were derived by partial melting of an old, metasomatized subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) of the subducted Indian plate. Instead, they propose that these ultrapotassic volcanic rocks (UPVs) are shoshonitic and were generated in two steps: direct melting of crustal rocks first, and then the melts interacted with mantle peridotite. However, the trace element, isotopic, thermal, structural, and seismic evidence is consistent with the xenolith evidence (Wang et al in Contrib Mineral Petrol 172:62, 2016) for hybridisation of ascending Indian subcontinental lithospheric mantle-derived UPV magmas with the deep, isotopically unevolved, Tibetan crust. This necessitates a model whereby partial melting of subducting Indian SCLM generates the UPV suite of southern Tibet.

We calculate the absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) of various short lived climate forcers (SLCFs) based on detailed radiative forcing (RF) calculations from four different models. The temperature response has been estimated for four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N, and 60–90° N). The regional pattern in climate response not only depends on the relationship between RF and surface temperature, but also on where and when emissions occurred and atmospheric transport, chemistry, interaction with clouds, and deposition. We present four emissions cases covering Europe, East Asia, the global shipping sector, and the globe. Our study is the first to estimate ARTP values for emissions during Northern Hemisphere summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April). The species studied are aerosols and aerosol precursors (black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), SO2, NH3), ozone precursors (NOx, CO, volatile organic compound (VOC)), and methane (CH4). For the response to BC in the Arctic, we take into account the vertical structure of the RF in the atmosphere, and an enhanced climate efficacy for BC deposition on snow. Of all SLCFs, BC is the most sensitive to where and when the emissions occur, as well as giving the largest difference in response between the latitude bands. The temperature response in the Arctic is almost 4 times larger and more than 2 times larger than the global average for Northern Hemisphere winter emissions for Europe and East Asia, respectively. The latitudinal breakdown gives likely a better estimate of the global temperature response as it accounts for varying efficacies with latitude. An annual pulse of non-methane SLCFs emissions globally (representative of 2008) leads to a global cooling. Whereas, winter emissions in Europe and East Asia give a net warming in the Arctic due to significant warming from BC deposition on snow.

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3 % yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.

Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing, using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce the large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g., −1 to −3 %/yr in aerosols over US and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosols changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by about +0.2 W m−2, with approximately 1/3 due to ozone. This increase is stronger positive than reported in IPCC AR5. The main reason for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period is the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to the IPCC, and higher black carbon emissions.

A database of 253 unbonded tendon-reinforced members was assembled and analyzed with a focus on Δfps. Large scatter was observed and gaps were identified in previous databases due to possibly unsuitable inclusion of certain testing programs. The influence of several geometric and material properties was analyzed using a covariance analysis, and significant differences between simple-span and continuous members were observed, although some prediction methods do not differentiate between the two. The assembled prediction models for Δfps had evaluation statistics ranging from 1.84

Identifying the cratonic affinity of Neoproterozoic crust that surrounds the northern margin of the Siberian Craton (SC) is critical for determining its tectonic evolution and placing the Craton in Neoproterozoic supercontinental reconstructions. Integration of new U–Pb–Hf detrital zircon data with regional geological constraints indicates that distinct Neoproterozoic arc-related magmatic belts can be identified within the Taimyr orogen. Sedimentary rocks derived from 970 to 800 Ma arc-related suites reveal abundant Archean and Paleoproterozoic detritus, characteristic of the SC. The 720–600 Ma arc-related zircon population from the younger Cambrian sedimentary rocks is also complemented by an exotic juvenile Mesoproterozoic zircon population and erosional products of older arc-related suites. Nonetheless, numerous evidences imply that both arcs broadly reworked Siberian basement components. We suggest that the early Neoproterozoic (ca. 970–800 Ma) arc system of the Taimyr orogen evolved on the active margin of the SC and probably extended along the periphery of Rodinia into Valhalla orogen of NE Laurentia. We also suggest the late Neoproterozoic (750–550 Ma) arc system could have been part of the Timanian orogen, which linked Siberia and Baltica at the Precambrian/Phanerozoic transition.

Current models for the assembly of Proterozoic Australia suggest that the North Australian craton (NAC), West Australian craton (WAC), and South Australian craton (SAC) had amalgamated by at least 1.6 Ga, with possible rafting and reattachment of the SAC by ca. 1.3 Ga. In this scenario, the younger (1.2–1.1 Ga) Grenvillian-aged Musgrave Province of central Australia, which separates all three cratons, has been considered postcollisional to intracratonic. However, new and recent U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotopic analyses of zircons from the Musgrave Province indicate continuous active-margin magmatic activity between 1.7 and 1.2 Ga. A distinctive inverted U-shaped pattern of the Hf array for this 500 m.y. period is evidence of part of a Proterozoic Wilson cycle, with subduction initiation at 1.7 Ga and eventual ocean closure by 1.2 Ga. We estimate that the cycle began at 2.2 Ga. Overlap of the Musgrave zircon age spectra and Hf isotopic array with the along-strike Albany-Fraser orogen (AFO) suggests derivation of the Musgrave Province from the WAC, not the NAC or SAC as previously thought. The Musgrave Province link to the WAC confirms that Australia did not assemble until at least early Grenvillian time (ca. 1.2 Ga). Moreover, because the SAC was part of the much larger Mawson continent, the 1.2 Ga collision was of transcontinental magnitude similar to that of the type-Grenville orogen in Laurentia. This favors an Australia-Mexico (AUSMEX) configuration at 1.2 Ga, rather than the southwestern United States and East Antarctica (SWEAT) or Proterozoic Australia–western United States (AUSWUS) models. The Musgrave-AFO marks a major, underestimated phase of Rodinian assembly. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Compressional intracontinental orogens are major zones of crustal thickening produced at large distances from active plate boundaries. Consequently, any account of their initiation and subsequent evolution must be framed outside conventional plate tectonics theory, which can only explain the proximal effects of convergent plate-margin interactions. This review considers a range of hypotheses regarding the origins and transmission of compressive stresses in intraplate settings. Both plate-boundary and intraplate stress sources are investigated as potential driving forces, and their relationship to rheological models of the lithosphere is addressed. The controls on strain localisation are then evaluated, focusing on the response of the lithosphere to the weakening effects of structural, thermal and fluid processes. With reference to the characteristic features of intracontinental orogens in central Asia (the Tien Shan) and central Australia (the Petermann and Alice Springs Orogens), it is argued that their formation is largely driven by in-plane stresses generated at plate boundaries, with the lithosphere acting as an effective stress guide. This implies a strong lithospheric mantle rheology, in order to account for far-field stress propagation through the discontinuous upper crust and to enable the support of thick uplifted crustal wedges. Alternative models of intraplate stress generation, primarily involving mantle downwelling, are rejected on the grounds that their predicted temporal and spatial scales for orogenesis are inconsistent with the observed records of deformation. Finally, inherited mechanical weaknesses, thick sedimentary blanketing over a strongly heat-producing crust, and pervasive reaction softening of deep fault networks are identified as important and interrelated controls on the ability of the lithosphere to accommodate rather than transmit stress. These effects ultimately produce orogenic zones with architectural features and evolutionary histories strongly reminiscent of typical collisional belts, suggesting that the deformational response of continental crust is remarkably similar in different tectonic settings.

In this paper, we present a description of the tropospheric chemistry component of the UK Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model which has been coupled to the Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM family of climate models. We assess the model's transport and scavenging processes, in particular focussing on convective transport, boundary layer mixing, wet scavenging and inter-hemispheric exchange. Simulations with UKCA of the short-lived radon tracer suggest that modelled distributions are comparable to those of other models and the comparison with observations indicate that apart from a few locations, boundary layer mixing and convective transport are effective in the model as a means of vertically redistributing surface emissions of radon. Comparisons of modelled lead tracer concentrations with observations suggest that UKCA captures surface concentrations in both hemispheres very well, although there is a tendency to underestimate the observed geographical and interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, UKCA replicates the shape and absolute concentrations of observed lead profiles, a key test in the evaluation of a model's wet scavenging scheme. The timescale for inter-hemispheric transport, calculated in the model using a simple krypton tracer experiment, does appear to be long relative to other models and could indicate deficiencies in tropical deep convection and/or insufficient boundary layer mixing. We also describe the main components of the tropospheric chemistry and evaluate it against observations and other tropospheric chemistry models. In particular, from a climate forcing perspective, present-day observed surface methane concentrations and tropospheric ozone concentrations are reproduced very well by the model, thereby making it suitable for long centennial integrations as well as studies of biogeochemical feedbacks. Results from both historical and future simulations with UKCA tropospheric chemistry are presented. Future projections of tropospheric ozone vary with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In RCP2.6, for example, tropospheric ozone increases up to 2010 and then declines by 13% of its year-2000 global mean by the end of the century. In RCP8.5, tropospheric ozone continues to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, with methane being the main driving factor. Finally, we highlight aspects of the UKCA model which are undergoing and/or have undergone recent developments and are suitable for inclusion in a next-generation Earth System Model.

The onset of World War I spurred the “Great Migration” of African Americans from the US South, arguably the most important internal migration in US history. We create a new panel dataset of more than 5,000 men matched from the 1910 to 1930 census manuscripts to address three interconnected questions: To what extent was there selection into migration? How large were the migrants’ gains? Did migration narrow the racial gap in economic status? We find evidence of positive selection, but the migrants’ gains were large. A substantial amount of black-white convergence in this period is attributable to migration. (JEL J15, J61, N32, N92, R23)

This paper shows how the advanced chemical transport model CMAQ can be used to estimate future levels of PM2.5 in the UK, the key air pollutant in terms of human health effects, but one which is largely made up from the formation of secondary particulate in the atmosphere. By adding the primary particulate contribution from typical urban roads and including a margin for error, it is concluded that the current indicative limit value for PM2.5 will largely be met in 2020 assuming 2006 meteorological conditions. Contributions to annual average regional PM2.5 concentration from wild fires in Europe in 2006 and from possible climate change between 2006 and 2020 are shown to be small compared with the change in PM2.5 concentration arising from changes in emissions between 2006 and 2020. The contribution from emissions from major industrial sources regulated in the UK is estimated from additional CMAQ calculations. The potential source strength of these emissions is a useful indicator of the linearity of the response of the atmosphere to changes in emissions. Uncertainties in the modelling of regional and local sources are taken into account based on previous evaluations of the models. Future actual trends in emissions mean that exceedences of limit values may arise, and these and further research into PM2.5 health effects will need to be part of the future strategy to manage PM2.5 concentrations.

Many material toughness specifications, including a fracture control plan (FCP) for highway bridges introduced in 1978, in part rely on Charpy V-notch (CVN) requirements and associated correlations to set material toughness values at acceptable levels that will prevent brittle fracture in bridges. However, it has long been recognized that this is an indirect approach because CVN impact energy is not a direct measure of fracture toughness. Significant advances in the understanding of fracture mechanics and material behavior have taken place in the four decades since the FCP was established. These advancements are in part due to the large amount of fracture toughness data that has been generated, allowing for statistical evaluation. As a result, this provides an opportunity to evaluate CVN toughness correlations. Overall, these advances allow a more rational approach to establishing material toughness requirements for bridge steels including (1) the ability to characterize the scatter of fracture da...