Search

This dissertation investigates the evacuees' behavior under hurricane evacuation conditions and develops an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation using these behavioral findings. The dissertation econometrically models several important evacuation decisions including evacuate-stay, accommodation type choice, evacuation destination choice, evacuation mode choice, departure time choice, and vehicle usage choice. In addition, it explicitly considers the pre-evacuation preparation activities using activity-based approach. The models are then integrated into a two-module agent-based travel demand model system. The dissertation first develops the evacuate-stay choice model using the random-coefficient binary logit specification. It uses heterogeneous mean of the random parameter across households to capture shadow evacuation. It is found that the likelihood of evacuation for households that do not receive any evacuation notice decreases as their distance to coast increase on average. The distance sensitivity factor, or DSF, is introduced to construct the different scenarios of geographical extent of shadow evacuation. The dissertation then conducts statistical analysis of the vehicle usage choice. It identifies the contributing factors to households' choice of the number of vehicles used for evacuation and develop predictive models of this choice that explicitly consider the constraint imposed by the number of vehicles owned by the household. This constraint is not accommodated by ordered response models. Data comes from a post-storm survey for Hurricane Ivan. The two models developed are variants of the regular Poisson regression model: the Poisson model with exposure and right-censored Poisson regression. The right-censored Poisson model is preferred due to its inherent capabilities, better fit to the data, and superior predictive power. The multivariable model and individual variable analyses are used to investigate seven hypotheses. Households traveling longer distances or evacuating later are more likely to use fewer vehicles. Households with prior hurricane experience, greater numbers of household members between 18 and 80, and pet owners are more likely to use a greater number of vehicles. Income and distance from the coast are insignificant in the multivariable models, although their individual effects have statistically significant linear relationship. However, the Poisson based models are non-linear. The method for using the right-censored Poisson model for producing the desired share of vehicle usage is also provided for the purpose of generating individual predictions for simulation. The dissertation then presents a descriptive analysis of and econometric models for households' pre-evacuation activities based on behavioral intention data collected for Miami Beach, Florida. The descriptive analysis shows that shopping - particularly food, gasoline, medicine, and cash withdrawal - accounts for the majority of preparation activities, highlighting the importance of maintaining a supply of these items. More than 90% of the tours are conducted by driving, emphasizing the need to incorporate pre-evacuation activity travel into simulation studies. Households perform their preparation activities early in a temporally concentrated manner and generally make the tours during daylight. Households with college graduates, larger households, and households who drive their own vehicles are more likely to engage in activities that require travel. The number of household members older than 64 has a negative impact upon engaging in out-of-home activities. An action day choice model for the first tour suggests that households are more likely to buy medicine early but are more likely to pick up friends/relatives late. Households evacuating late are more likely to conduct their activities late. Households with multiple tours tend to make their first tour early. About 10% of households chain their single activity chains with their ultimate evacuation trips. The outcomes of this paper can be used in demand generation for traffic simulations. The dissertation finally uses the behavioral findings and develops an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation, which is capable of generating the comprehensive household activity-travel plans. The system implements econometric and statistical models that represent travel and decision-making behavior throughout the evacuation process. The system considers six typical evacuation decisions: evacuate-stay, accommodation type choice, evacuation destination choice, mode choice, vehicle usage choice and departure time choice. It explicitly captures the shadow evacuation population. In addition, the model system captures the pre-evacuation preparation activities using an activity-based approach. A demonstration study that predicts activity-travel patterns using model parameters estimated for the Miami-Dade area is discussed. The simulation results clearly indicate the model system produced the distribution of choice patterns that is consistent with sample observations and existing literature. The model system also identifies the proportion of the shadow evacuation population and their geographical extent. About 23% of the population outside the designated evacuation zone would evacuate. The shadow evacuation demand is mainly located within 3.1 miles (5 km) of the coastline. The output demand of the model system works with agent-based traffic simulation tools and conventional trip-based simulation tools. The agent-based travel demand model system is capable of generating activity plans that works with agent-based traffic simulation tools and conventional trip-based simulation tools. It will facilitate the hurricane evacuation management. Ph. D.

Relocation is often taboo among policy makers and planners due to its political, social, and ethical connotations, and although increasingly mentioned as one of the potential climate change adaptation strategies, it mostly adheres to rhetoric with limited discussion of its actual implementation. Scientific study and observation indicate the imminence of climate change impacts, many of which may exceed the adaptive capacity of vulnerability hotspots. Therefore, it is imperative to reassess this response option in the light of its past negative reputation, the success of current initiatives, and decision makers' evolving perception of relocation as an adaptation option. The main objective of this dissertation research is to determine the need for, interest in, and prospects for community relocations as an adaptation option; explore ways to address limitations associated with this alternative, and identify opportunities that could emerge from the relocation process. This study reviews experiences from the past and current relocation efforts and gauges the current level of interest in and support for this adaptation option among policy makers and planners. It also provides conceptual models - the relocation scenario, its digitalized simulation, the Climate Change Relocation Leaf, and the Relocation Suitability Index - designed to help communities, policy makers and planners explore this alternative. The research commences with a comprehensive literature review of theoretical knowledge, past experiences, current case studies, and the existing state of institutional, political, and social perspectives related to climate change migration and relocation. It continues with a comparative content analysis of climate change adaptation plans to elucidate the relocation rhetoric utilized in the selected texts at what frequency and in what context. Next, the study represents the climate change relocation models and a scenario developed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in assessing the need for and possibility of relocation. Lastly, the project concludes with the development of a conceptual and tabular framework for the Relocation Suitability Index and subsequent simulation designed to compare possible relocation host sites systematically based on their absorption capacity. Ph. D.

Johannesburg, South Africa has stated ambitions of becoming a “sustainable city” and a “world-class African city.” Many factors may contribute to the realization of these aims. One is a “sustainable” water supply, since water is fundamental to life and to economic activity. But South Africa (SA) is a “water-stressed” country, indeed, globally, it is one of the twenty most water-deficient countries and Gauteng province (where Johannesburg is located) may run out of water by 2015. Many demand and supply factors conspire to affect adversely the “sustainability” of water and any “sustainable development” trajectory in SA. Accordingly, I survey the literature on “sustainability” and “sustainable development” (S/SD) to see if it might offer some way out of SA's water dilemma. This is a vast, complex and contested body of literature, but overall, S/SD appears to be “common cause.“ But this does not necessarily mean that S/SD concepts are either well understood or integrated, especially as applied to the water sector in SA. I suggest that a comprehensive understanding of what might be contemplated by S/SD concepts as regards the water sector is lacking, so I seek to determine how the concepts of S/SD “play out,“ how they can be translated and understood, and what import selected S/SD concepts may have in terms of the water sector in Johannesburg. This is accomplished by means of a broad literature review and by conducting interviews with mostly senior personnel in Johannesburg who are responsible for water and sustainability public policy and issues in Johannesburg and in SA. This research describes several major ramifications of water and sustainability in Johannesburg and contributes empirically, by examining the intersection of S/SD, water and Johannesburg and theoretically, by developing a heuristic model (HM), so that understanding of S/SD (especially as it relates to water in SA) can be crystallized and provide a platform for further debate, contestation, interpretation and implementation. The lexicon emerging from the HM will help leaders to balance the competing claims and tensions during conception and implementation of relevant water policies. The model depicts the interplay of sustainability premises with actual conditions in an important developing nation. Ph. D.

The numerous transdisciplinary research initiatives currently addressing a variety of complex social issues could benefit from a deeper understanding of the ways in which intellectually diverse groups work together to address problems. This research focused on a small group of investigators in a transdisciplinary institute as they sought to work collaboratively in the domain of infectious disease research. The unit's members described many challenges and successes that provided insights into the character and dynamics of transdisciplinary research, including how members developed a shared conceptual framework. The process proved enormously complex and was the product of long-term interactions among group members. Because participants were rooted in different disciplines and did not share professional trajectories, communication and understanding took extra effort, patience, and the development of a counterintuitive set of cognitive skills. Over time an integrated work process evolved within the group through a combination of strong interpersonal relationships, the mediating role of interactional expertise, and the development of shared boundary objects. Group members began working more closely with other team participants throughout the lifespan of projects. That experience over time allowed individuals to connect the details of their work together with the overarching goals and strategies of the group. This study employed the theory of trading zones to illustrate the ways researchers worked across boundaries to establish shared ideas, values, and goals. It developed and applied the concept of a transdisciplinary trading zone to describe the group's ability to coordinate its action despite both epistemic and communication barriers. Ultimately, the researchers studied sought a balance between being "productive," understood as providing practical tools to industry and government, and generating novel scientific solutions to complex research problems. The group's success in securing a shared research aspiration despite its member's disciplinary and professional differences resulted from an iterative process of interaction that included learning from failed attempts and a constant and persistent negotiation of goals and values among those involved. Ph. D.

Environmental policy debates are gaining momentum in the public square from scholars and citizens alike. From all sides of the debate, a growing consensus is emerging that advocates a shift in the environmental regulatory system in the United States from one that emphasizes command and control regulations to one that advocates collaboration between the regulator and regulatee. Although this dialogue is expanding, the research literature largely remains silent on a critical component of the environmental regulatory system — the individuals on the front-lines. Most notably, these front-line workers are environmental compliance inspectors and the individuals that inspectors deal with at regulated facilities. Inspectors and facility personnel are largely responsible for the implementation of environmental regulation in the U.S., yet they are overlooked in the discussion of regulation, past and present. These key actors are of tremendous significance and must be considered in discussions of environmental policy. In particular, the interactions of these two important groups of actors merit exploration. This research examines the interactions of inspectors and facility personnel in Virginia and investigates contentions that the relationships in the environmental regulatory system lack trust. One-on-one interviews were conducted with nearly four dozen inspectors and facility personnel in Virginia to seek answers to the question: How does trust factor into the relationships between environmental compliance inspectors and facility personnel in Virginia? In contrast to presumptions in the literature, this study finds evidence of positive relationships between these two seeming adversaries and asserts that trust is present in these interactions. Accordingly, there are potentially significant implications of these findings for future environmental policy. These implications include the realization that the relationships are positive, that there may indeed be differences between relationships at the state versus federal level and the experiences at one level dominate prevailing perceptions, and that traditional assumptions of command and control regulations may not be as valid as previously thought. Ph. D.