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Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) is considered to be one of the key factors in water resource practices. Insights into the effects of climate change on ETo are crucial for irrigation design and policy formulation; however, little is understood on it in the case of Bangladesh at the national basin scale. This study intends to appraise monthly, annual, and decadal ETo datasets using the Penman-Monteith FAO-56 (FAO-56 PM) model based on daily meteorological datasets of 25 sites during 1975–2017. The Mann-Kendall (MK) technique was used to detect trend patterns. Besides, Sen’s slope estimator was employed to evaluate the trend lines extent. The results depicted that 82.67% of the monthly ETo values had descending trends and 39.67 and 16.33% were significant at α

There is a growing interest from e-commerce planners and other planning agencies in the Information Technology world to measure and forecast the growth of e-commerce in developing countries like Nigeria. The difficulties lie in finding the best forecasting model that can incorporate both the internal and external barriers that influence the full adoption and diffusion of e-commerce. This study attempts to identify the relevant e-commerce tools and its spread in Ogun East Senatorial District as well as formulating a mathematical model for e-commerce adoption and diffusion. A well-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 126 respondents and analyzed using Trendline, a built-in analysis tool in Microsoft® Office Excel version 2013. The study identified PCs/laptops, ATM cards, e-mail services, mobile money transfer, e-commerce Websites, and point-of-sales (POS) terminals as e-commerce tools used by the respondents. The results of the study show that majority of the e-commerce users/adopters were single female students between the ages of 21 and 30 years, with university education owing to a proportion of 63% of the respondents while the earliest adopted e-commerce tools in descending order were tablets/smartphones, PCs/laptops, ATM cards, and email services. The results further show that the most popularly-used tools were e-commerce websites (98% responses), email services (94% responses), mobile money transfer (94% responses), POS terminals (94% responses), tablets/smartphones (93% responses), PCs/laptops (87% responses) and ATM cards (80% responses). Based on the findings of this study, it is therefore recommended that government should promote the use and development of e-commerce, notably by reducing the costs of access to technology, through the liberation of trade in software and hardware.

Summary The purpose of the work is to assess the efficiency of difficult wells having different geometries (sidetrack/multilateral wells) under similar subsurface conditions. The work includes the following: formation of principles for selecting analogues to evaluate efficiency; selecting well sections in reservoirs of continental and marine genesis, comparing porosity and permeability; comparing productivity factors of producing horizontal section at the start of operation; evaluating the oil production decline rate and growth in cumulative oil production; and presentation of promising trends of multilateral well technology development. In order to evaluate the multilateral well efficiency as compared to the other types of completion, principles of site selection are developed based on close position of wells and similar porosity and permeability, energy condition of reservoir and development settings. The following stages were included in evaluation of site efficiency: 1) selection of sites for comparison in accordance with similar porosity and permeability; 2) comparison of well completion technologies and energy conditions of reservoir in the area of sites; 3) estimation of productivity factor and oil rates at the start of well operation; 4) analysis of oil production decline rate and cumulative oil production. In accordance with well commissioning data, the trend of productivity factor growth from the producing horizontal section is observed for horizontal holes; at the same time, based upon the trend lines, there is a limit of productivity factor growth because of draining the same volume of reserves. For the areas with representative operational statistics, the sites were broken down in accordance with continental (2 sites) and marine (4 sites) genesis; 5 more sites in the Vankorsky field were assigned to a separate block because of the lower energy conditions in multilateral wells compared to sidetracks (reservoir pressure by 15% lower on average). As a result of the assessment, efficiency of multilateral wells with respect to sidetracks was proved; the average increment of cumulative oil production per well for 6 months amounted to 5 thousand tons compared to sidetracks (+14%), while the predicted effect for 20 years makes 63.2 thousand tons (+75%). The best results in multilateral wells are obtained in reservoirs of continental genesis having better reservoir quality.

Research background: Until 2004, the financing of local self-government in Slovak Republic was determined annually by the Act on the State Budget. In 2005, the whole philosophy of redistribution of funds for the level of local self-government was changed. The basis of the new system of local self-government financing was the determination of the personal income tax as an only one share tax. Purpose of the article: The income from this tax is distributed between the local self-government, the regional self-government and the state. The aim of the paper is to analyze the incomes from personal income tax redistributed to the level of local self-governments in Slovak Republic in the time period 2009 - 2019, as well as to provide a possible prediction of the development of these incomes. Methods: Basic data for the analysis were obtained from the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic from the state final account. We evaluate the obtained time series by means of MS Excel and we use modelling by means of trend lines. The obtained predictions will be compared with the forecasts presented by the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic. Findings & Value added: However, COVID - 19 also intervened in the predictions of the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic, and therefore we will also compare our models with real data obtained from the state budget in the framework of fulfilling from personal income tax for the time period January to August 2020. Also we will evaluate the expenditures of selected EU countries for local self-government.

This Research is about comparison between sharia companies and non-sharia companies in the stock market. Several previous studies have shown that in the stock market, the stock performance of sharia companies is better to that of non-sharia companies. Then this research increases the qualification of the companies to become companies that have implemented green innovation technology. This qualification is applied to companies listed in the Sri-Kehati index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Through bivariate and multivariate analysis, the results showed that the stock performance of non-sharia companies was better than those of sharia companies. Bivariate analysis show that the positive gradient of non-sharia trendline (168.37) is bigger than sharia trendline (11.633). The coefficient of determination between non-sharia stocks and Sri-Kehati index (86.41%) is bigger than between sharia stocks and Sri-Kehati index (26.46%). Multivariate analysis obtained a multiple linear regression equation of 1 2 yˆ =117.187 + 0.0081x1 + 0.014397 x2. This equation shows that the variable coefficient of the value of sharia stocks is smaller than the coefficient of the variable value of non-sharia stocks. These facts are based on research on Sri-Kehati index data from 2016 to 2019. The results of this study indicate that investors prefer to invest in shares in non-sharia companies than in sharia companies. The results also indicate that increasing the qualifications of a sharia company to become a company that applies green innovation technology will not necessarily increase its share value. Is upgrading the qualification of a sharia company to a sharia company that applies green innovation technology a mistake? Meanwhile, Indonesia is a country with the largest Muslim population in the world.

Trade is essential for countries development. In Brazil, coffee has been one of the most important export items and by large is commercialized as a green or roasted bean. The aim of this article is to establish a prediction mode for coffee exports using time series and trend lines. To do so, we collected the exportation volume from the two main export countries in each segment: Brazil and Germany. A five-year forecasting was produced using regression curves provided by Microsoft Excel. Our results indicated that polynomial fits best and this function is consistent with agricultural production that is conditioned to edaphoclimatic factors.

Operative time is the most reported outcome to measure learning curve and proficiency in robotic surgery. Furthermore, little attention is paid to procedure-independent variables. Consequently, the gently descending trend line of ‘console time’ will reassure operators that their times are improving, but no information as to the number of cases to competence, assessment on their technical ability to place ports or dock the robot, nor any appraisal of inflections in the curve are presented. As they are involved heavily with positioning of the patient and of the robot, the effect of the fluidity of the ‘robotic team’ is also underrated when purely operative durations are considered.

Psychology tests are tools used to evaluate specific aspects of individual psyche and behavior, in clinical practice and for research purposes. They are validated and standardized both in the administration procedures and interpretation of results. Nowadays, most of these tests are questionnaires administered to patients on paper support. The patient’s answers to the questionnaires constitute a basis for self-presentation and self-awareness at the beginning of the therapeutic path. The computer is a valuable aid allowing a quickly consultation of all the answers and highlighting the most salient ones. The main aim of this work was to design, develop and test a computerized support tool for the interpretation of psychological tests that allow good interaction between groups of therapists sharing the same operating modes. The developed system allows: first the storing of the numerical values corresponding to the answers to the questionnaires of the patients; then it creates a complete ’Picture’ of the patient and allows the automatic computation of the correlation between the indexes of the various scales. The graphical correlations between scales can be also a valuable aid in finding the outliers, so patients far away from the trend line.

In developing countries like India, the scale of use of human resources in micro, small and medium scale in labor-intensive industries is enormous. In this situation, it must be obvious that very small improvements in working conditions, implements, tool design or working methods can lead to large benefits. It is believed that occupational health programs should focus more on the informal sector, which employs a large proportion of workers. Paying attention to carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS)-related health problems and performance of the workforce of shock absorber assembly enterprises, macro-level study was carried out in automobiles and shocker manufacturing requirements year-wise during 2008 to 2020 AD.F Trend lines plotted from online data and equations have been obtained and estimated for future three years requirements of the shocker. Assembly man hours are computed, man power required and the employees experiencing CTS are estimated at macro-level. It was observed from the study and findings that in the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) there are very little awareness about CTS. CTS are present in the various activities carried out in shocker manufacturing plants where a significant number of workers are experiencing CTS symptoms. From the present research, it is expected that small improvements in workforce health can lead to large benefits in the long run to shocker assembly industries, thereby reduces workforce turnout to white-collar jobs and frequent absenteeism to work and improved productivity. The present research outcome will also be useful in addressing CTS identification for assembly workforce of auto industry and regression analysis up to 2020 AD. Several useful conclusions have been arrived at.

The article is devoted to the formulation of electronic remote identification of enterprises by digital technologies. The paper determines a practical aspect of using electronic remote identification between the bank and the organizations. The article emphasizes that BankID system has great social importance and wide practical application in Nordics and Ukraine. It is analyzed the level of Ukrainian enterprises’ computerization in various industries. The shares of some industries in the structure of the Ukrainian’s GDP with the construction of a trend line are given. Authors compare states of electronic identification in the northern countries and advantages of BankID systems. The recommendations for improvement electronic remote identification the enterprises by digital technologies are made. Keywords: digitalization of finances, finance, finance of enterprises, remote identification, digital technologies, BankID, banking.

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The price level is an important factor that determines the efficiency of foreign economic activity in a market economy. Market prices are the main regulator of the balance of social reproduction and economic relations in the turnover of production of products of various industries. How well the prices are formed, taking into account the profitability of production, the prices of demand for products and prices for illogical goods from competitors will overestimate the further development of the organization. Materials and methods. Pricing involves the formation of prices for goods and services, based on two existing pricing systems. Market pricing determines the price based on the interaction of supply and demand. Centralized state pricing, in which the formation of prices is carried out by state authorities. Results. In the modern economy, to determine prices in order to achieve breakeven production, the analysis of breakeven production is used to determine the estimated standard of sales, which is in direct proportion to the price. The break-even point of a trading enterprise shows the volume of turnover at which the enterprise covers the costs. The level of gross income depends on the level of the trade markup, with different options for the trade markup, its size and the amount of gross income will fluctuate, respectively, the price and the volume of turnover required to achieve breakeven. Discussion. The presented article proposes the author's approach to price formation, taking into account the price at the break-even point and the maximum price determined by the method of limiting analysis. This approach allows you to respond in a timely manner to competitors' price reductions within the sales effectiveness zone. Conclusion. A possible price reduction without significant financial losses both when protecting against price dumping from competitors and in terms of increasing revenue when conducting an attacking price reduction strategy to increase demand for products largely determines the financial stability of an organization, its expanded reproduction.

The trend of frequency of rainfall events in India and their duration shows that there has been an increasing tendency of heavy rain days and decreasing tendency of moderate rain days coupled with a rising trend in short spell as well as dry spells since the middle of the last decade. But the variation of rain days and spells do not follow a regular pattern. The proposed study highlights a comparative assessment of pattern, spell and intensity of rainfall in temporal and spatial scale in a comprehensive manner in order to evaluate their behavioural pattern and interaction among intensity and spells using data available in the published literature. Mann-Kendall trend test has been carried out in order to establish linear trend of the observed data. Autoregression model has been employed to develop a more realistic trend line leading to better prediction of future events. This will help the water resource engineers in the prediction of precipitation required for analysis and design along with the risk management of various projects.

Apple Inc. is a technology company that has established itself as a market leader in the technology industry over the years. After conducting numerous financial ratios, it is evident that the company has achieved its success by efficiently utilizing its assets and equity. Financial ratios analysis was undertaken using data downloaded from Yahoo Finance. All financial ratios were computed over four years between 2016 and 2020. The results were then recorded in a table and a line graph showing the trend line plotted. Through liquidity ratio analysis, this report determined that the company is financially healthy and has the ability to meet its short-term obligations with ease. The company has also succeeded in creating value for the shareholders by having a positive and growing return on investment. The company’s activity ratios depict how it turns its stocks quickly and efficiently into cash. On the other hand, an analysis of the company’s debt ratios indicates that the company does not rely heavily on debt to finance its operations.

The numerical modelling of chloride penetration into concrete is very sensitive to the correct description of the input data. In the recent era, high-performance concrete (HPC), which combines Portland cement and other supplementary cementitious materials, has been gaining attraction due to their desirable material properties and durability. The presented results show the application of the modified approach for the evaluation of the suitability of the time-dependent model for the variation of the diffusion coefficient. The 26 various binary and ternary-based concrete mixtures blended with volcanic pumice pozzolan (VPP) as a major supplementary cementitious material (SCM) are compared with the reference Ordinary Portland Cement mixture. Other SCMs namely fly ash, slag, silica fume, and metakaolin were also utilized in ternary-based concrete mixtures. In-depth statistical analysis was carried out to show the variability and effects of the amount of the volcanic pumice as an SCM on the diffusion coefficient. The mean value and regression via linear approximation of the time-dependent coefficient of variation of the diffusion coefficients were used as well as the Root of Mean Squared Error approach. The presented results are suitable as the component of the input parameters for the durability-related probabilistic assessment of the reinforced concrete structures exposed to chlorides. In addition, the time-dependent ultimate limit state-related data was presented. Web of Science 14 13 art. no. 3674

The aim of the articleis to find optimal methods of trend building in order to analyze the epidemiological situation in case of further development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tasks arisen due to the increase in infection cases in the fall of 2020 are considered in detail. The research methodologylies in the generalization of the least Gaussian squares method and Facebook Prophet methodology. The novelty of the studyis a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of systems used for online processing of statistical data, in particular, MS Excel spreadsheets. Conclusions.The material presented in the article gives clear examples of statistical calculations using widely used software products. The problems arising from the reliability of statistical information have been considered. Examples of real calculations of trends in the epidemiological situation have been presented.

The aim of the article is to find optimal methods of trend building in order to analyze the epidemiological situation in case of further development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tasks arisen due to the increase in infection cases in the fall of 2020 are considered in detail.The research methodology lies in the generalization of the least Gaussian squares method and Facebook Prophet methodology.The novelty of the study is a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of systems used for online processing of statistical data, in particular, MS Excel spreadsheets.Conclusions. The material presented in the article gives clear examples of statistical calculations using widely used software products. The problems arising from the reliability of statistical information have been considered. Examples of real calculations of trends in the epidemiological situation have been presented., Целью статьи является поиск оптимальных методов построения тренда с целью анализа эпидемиологической ситуации в случае дальнейшего развития пандемии COVID-19. Подробно рассмотрены задачи, возникшие с ростом случаев инфицирования осенью 2020 года.Методы исследования: обобщение метода наименьших квадратов Гаусса и методология Facebook Prophet.Новизной проведенного исследования является сравнительный анализ преимуществ и недостатков систем, используемых для оперативной обработки статистических данных, в частности электронных таблиц MS Excel.Выводы. Изложенный в статье материал дает наглядные примеры выполнения статистических расчетов с использованием широко распространенных программных продуктов. Рассмотрены проблемы, возникающие в связи с достоверностью статистической информации. Представлены примеры реальных расчетов трендов эпидемиологической ситуации., Метою статті є пошук оптимальних методів побудови тренду з метою аналізу епідеміологічної ситуації в разі подальшого розвитку пандемії COVID-19. Докладно розглянуто завдання, які виникли зі зростом випадків інфікування восени 2020 року.Методи дослідження: узагальнення методу найменших квадратів Гауса та методологія Facebook Prophet.Новизною проведеного дослідження є порівняльний аналіз переваг і недоліків систем, що використовують для оперативної обробки статистичних даних, зокрема електронних таблиць MS Excel.Висновки. Викладений у статті матеріал дає наочні приклади виконання статистичних розрахунків з використанням широко розповсюджених програмних продуктів. Розглянуто проблеми, що виникають у зв’язку з правдивістю статистичної інформації. Представлено приклади реальних розрахунків трендів епідеміологічної ситуації.

A municipality&rsquo, s budget is a tool that significantly affects the long-term economic potential of the area. In addition, it is an important tool for the management of the municipality, in relation to the effective provision of public services for inhabitants. To ensure them, it uses the revenues that the local self-government receives from various sources. The aim of the paper is to characterize and to compare the mechanism of creating revenues of the local self-government in the Slovak and Czech Republic and, at the same time, to analyze the relationships between individual groups of local revenues in the time period 2009&ndash, 2018. We analyzed the basic groups of municipal revenues: total revenues, current revenues, and capital revenues. For the analysis, we used selected mathematical&ndash, statistical methods (trend lines, correlation coefficient). Although both countries were part of one country, both have a dual model of public administration and have undergone fiscal decentralization, the structure and sources of local self-government revenues are different. However, a common attribute is the dependence of local self-government on state revenues. Tax revenues are the most important part of current budget revenues. Despite fiscal decentralization, local budget revenues are dependent on the state. In the Slovak Republic, share taxes from the state represent 74% of the total tax revenues of municipalities, and in the Czech Republic, 85% of the total tax revenues of municipalities.

Despite repeated findings that within-year growth in oral reading rate is nonlinear for many students, existing decision-making frameworks to evaluate response to intervention assume that growth is linear across an entire school year. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the consequences of failing to account for nonlinear growth among students in Grade 3 receiving supplemental interventions progress monitored with FastBridge Learning probes when using existing curriculum-based measurement of reading decision rules. Not accounting for nonlinear growth when using a goal line based upon expected growth between fall and spring assessment periods led to suboptimal outcomes for the data point, trend line, and median rules through 16 weeks of progress monitoring. Using a goal line based upon expected improvement between fall to winter benchmarks helped improved the accuracy of identifying cases that needed an instructional change (sensitivity) but led to lower levels of accuracy in identifying students that were benefitting from intervention (specificity). Using a gated framework in which growth was compared to both types of goal lines led to slight improvements in specificity among cases that showed nonlinear growth at the expense of sensitivity. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

In Sri Lanka social media platforms were used as information propagation medium stupendously during COVID 19 outbreak period. The context of the post creates a high impact on the Social media engagement trends. This research primarily aims at how hate speech was propagated in twitter platform during the COVID 19 outbreak period. This paper describes the results of the study performed on how contents in the Sinhala language, and Sinhala language words written using English text were disseminated. Moreover, and the paper discusses the trend analysis techniques used in performing the trends analysis to identify the hate speech propagation trends over the period. It was observed that there was a rapid interaction with social media platforms during the first half of the posts identified, and in the latter part, the interactions were gradually decreased. Finally, this abstract paper discusses a trend line of hate speech posts identified on twitter data.

This article aims to study the relationship between monetary policy and the listed price index of second-hand housing. Monetary policy uses M2 to quantify the scale of currency circulation. After research, the author found that first-tier cities, second-tier cities, third-tier cities, and the national real estate price index have the same trend with the money supply, and the same volatility turning point. First-tier cities, second-tier cities, third-tier cities, and the national house price index vary with the money supply changes, which are mainly reflected in the slope of the house price index and the money supply under the stable value of the house price index or the simple trend line. The slope of the first-tier cities is the same as that of the whole country but different in the stable value of housing prices. It can be seen that the housing prices of the first-tier cities and the country are similar in terms of rising prices, but the housing prices of the first-tier cities are higher than the national housing prices. Although the stable value of the second-tier cities is the same as the national housing price index, the second-tier cities are rising faster, and the slope is higher than the slope of the national housing price and money supply. Therefore, it can be found that the second-tier cities are more affected by the money supply. The money supply has a greater impact on the house price index. Compared with the whole country, the third-tier cities are lower in both indicators than the whole country. Therefore, it can be seen that the housing prices in the third-tier cities are less impacted by the money supply. The overall research innovation of this article lies in: according to the level of the city, it is divided into different calibers to study the relationship between the housing prices of different levels of cities and M2.

IF YOU WANTED TO “FLATTEN THE CURVE” IN 2019, you might have been changing students' grades or stamping down a rug ripple. Today, that phrase refers only to the vital task of reducing the peak number of people concurrently infected with the COVID-19 virus. Beginning in early 2020, graphs depicting the expected number of infections spread through social networks, much like the virus itself. We've all become consumers of epidemiological models, the mathematical entities that spit out these ominous trend lines. • Such models have existed for decades but have never received such widespread attention. They're informing public policy, financial planning, health care allocation, doomsday speculation, and Twitter hot takes. In the first quarter of 2020, government leaders were publicly parsing these computational speculations, making huge decisions about whether to shut down schools, businesses, and travel. Would an unchecked outbreak kill millions, or fizzle out? Which interventions would help the most? How sure could we be of any forecast? Models disagreed, and some people pointed to whichever curve best supported their predilections. It didn't help that the researchers building the models were still figuring out what the heck they were doing.

On 23 June 2016 the UK held a referendum so to decide whether to stay or leave the European Union. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this referendum had major consequences in terms of public policy, investment decisions, and currency markets. We discuss some subtleties entailed in smoothing and disentangling poll data at the light of the problem of tracking the dynamics of the intention to Brexit, and propose a multivariate singular spectrum analysis method that produces trendlines on the unit simplex. The trendline yield via multivariate singular spectrum analysis is shown to bear a resemblance with that of local polynomial smoothing, and singular spectrum analysis presents the nice feature of disentangling directly the dynamics into components that can be interpreted as changes in public opinion or sampling error. Merits and disadvantages of some different approaches to obtain smooth trendlines on the unit simplex are contrasted, both in terms of local polynomial smoothing andof multivariate singular spectrum analysis.

Fuzzy time series models have been widely used to handle forecasting problems, such as forecasting consumer demand and production volume. It is of greater benefits if we have good forecasting accuracy rates especially in managing inventory in a Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) company. This study focuses on multiple products with single production line. The aims of this study are to propose the appropriate the forecasting method for the products, to develop new inventory policy that minimizes the total inventory cost for the company. Simple forecasting methods like trend line, three month moving average (MA (3) and fuzzy time series forecasting are used in this study. The result shows that fuzzy time series forecasting model is suitable to be used in forecasting future demand for all products. The proposed inventory policy is based on the number of cycle per year and the number of production for each product has helped the company to minimize total inventory cost and schedule the production process accordingly. The proposed inventory policy resulted in lower total inventory cost when compared to current practice.

Background: Having a population growing at an annual average rate of 1.2 per cent and more than half of its total size depend on primary sector for their livelihood, agricultural sector occupy significant role in the economy of India. The extent of area, production and productivity of food grains and their instability therefore attracts special attention. The present study thus analyses the performance of agricultural sector in India in terms of trend in growth and instability of area, production and productivity of food grain during the three decades of liberalisation. The specific objectives are (i) to examine the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of food grains in India and (ii) to explain the decomposing changes in the variability of food grains production in India. Methods: In this field-laboratory investigation during 1990-91 to 2018-19, official secondary data has been utilized. Statistical tools like Least Square Growth Rate, Coefficient of Variation of area, production, and yield etc. have been applied for analysis. Result: The study highlighted that area under food grain cultivation remained almost stagnant. However, the overall food grain production registered growth rate of 2 per cent while the production instability was 15.88 per cent. The trend lines fitted to the production of foodgrains shows positive growth rate. The co-efficient of determination (R2) shows 87 percent for production and 92 percent for productivity which determines scope for further production for India. But in area it shows just 3.9 per cent. The result of the study shows that the production of food grains has increased with due instability during given the time period. It also calls for adopting alternate production technologies which will further improve the productivity of food grains to meet increasing demand from the growing population.

The daily Covid-19 fatality rate is modelled with a trend line based on nominal day-to-day reproduction rates and a cosine to take account of weekly fluctuations. The fatality trajectory represented by this trend line can be projected from the number of daily infections by assuming a time lapse between symptom onset and death between 17 and 19 days and a nominal time-dependent fatality rate. The time trajectory of this fatality rate suggests a change of the infection dynamics at April 3, with an increase from 2.5% to 6% within 20 days perhaps indicating spread of infection to more vulnerable people. Later in summer, the nominal fatality rate decreases down to 1% in mid-July raising the question whether Covid-19 is intrinsically less lethal in summer. Although the time trajectories of infections and fatality are pronouncedly different, the reproduction rates obtained therefrom are similar indicating that the infection dynamics may reasonably well be deduced from the potentially biased reported infection rate if it is biased consistently, i.e. the same way, over an extended period of time. The administrative measures to contain the pandemic seem not to have an immediate effect on the infection dynamics but well the ease of restrictions. An effect of mask wearing on decreasing lethality cannot be excluded.

Climate change is a prevalent issue all around the world. Changes in the temperature and precipitation, as well as their distributions, are the evidence of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this study was to gather and standardize information about temperature (maximum and minimum temperatures and the discrepancy between them) and precipitation in Iran’s environmental zones. The long-term meteorological dataset was gathered from 47 synoptic stations for 66 years (1951–2017). Linear regression was employed to show the type and trend of changes in the studied variables. The Koppen method and UNESCO aridity index were adopted for climate classification based on temperature and precipitation criteria, respectively. Based on the Koppen method, the climate of Iran is defined into 4 environmental zones consisting of the arid desert (Bw), semi-arid (Bs), humid with mild winters (C), and humid with severe winters (D). On the basis of the UNESCO aridity index, the climate of Iran is classified into 5 environmental zones including very dry, dry, semi-dry, humid, and very humid. Results demonstrated that at 42 stations (89% of stations), the slope of the trend line was positive and long-term annual average temperatures of 5 stations (11% of stations) were negative. Furthermore, for precipitation, 11 stations (25% of stations) had positive trend and 33 stations had a negative trend (75% of stations). Finally, it was found that there are significant changes in both temperature and precipitation. On the other hand, an overall increasing trend in temperature and a decreasing trend in precipitation were observed from high-altitude or high-latitude cold areas to low-latitude regions such as costal lines in Iran.

The number of persons daily infected with Covid-19 as a function of time is fitted with a trend line based on an iterative power law (n = ¼) with a day-to-day reproduction rate modelled with a polyline. From the trend line, an effective reproduction rate Reff of Covid-19 is calculated. In all three states, Reff decreases in the initial phase to one indicating that there is no exponential growth. In Sweden, a steady state with Reff around 1 and a high daily infection rates. In Germany, Reff = 1 is reached before public and private life is restricted. With these restrictions, Reff is reduced further to 0.87 (CI95 [0.83.; 0.91]) after 40 days so that, speculatively estimated, 9500 premature fatalities within two months may have been avoided. In France, it seems that only strongly restricting private life sends Reff down to 1 and further down to about 0.7 (CI95 [0.3; 1.1]) after 45 days. With Reff permanently below 1, an exponential decline of the number of daily infections is observed in Germany and France.

Purpose The challenge to improving innovation in an organisation is limited by the metrics used to measure it. Dimensions related to where an organisation is on an innovation spectrum, how fast is that organisation innovating and what is holding it back are key elements that could be used to adequately measure innovation. The objective of this work is to explore the development of an innovation metric based on a pipe flow analogy that has the potential to provide insights into these key elements describing innovation. Methodology This work follows three steps: establishing a hypothesis, testing the hypothesis and applying the hypothesis. The proposed hypothesis suggests that an innovation metric, Ri, can be developed based on a pipe flow analogy. This hypothesis is tested qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative assessment is accomplished by populating the innovation metric, Ri, with data mainly from the World Bank, comparing the results with established innovation and competitiveness metrics and examining if the metric confirms the trends suggested by the qualitative assessment. Using an illustrative case drawn from the quantitative assessment, the resulting innovation metric is used to indicate possible avenues for innovation performance improvement. Statistical analysis is limited to describing the goodness of fit of different trend line relationships. Results A qualitative assessment indicates that the innovation metric (Ri) behaves as illustrated in the literature. The quantitative assessment confirms the qualitative assessment results. The illustrative case demonstrates how the innovation metric can be used to potentially orient innovation performance improvement. The paper closes with a discussion addressing issues and limitations of the metric. Research limitations/implications The validity of this innovation metric is limited by the variables defining it and the quality of the data input. Consequently, the variables used are limited to the analogous versions of fluid mechanics variables used to describe fluid flow in a pipe. The variables used require both hard and soft data which was obtained from the data sources cited as related to nations. On the other hand, the subsequent challenge is related to applying this model to ever smaller organisations especially with respect to gathering soft data related to trust and ease of communication. Practical implications Keeping in mind the limitations mentioned, the innovation metric, as it stands, can be used to describe an organisation’s innovation performance, the speed of innovation and resistance to innovation with the data available from the sites indicated. As a result, the model also can be used to see how an organisation’s innovation performance evolves over time as well as indicate possible avenues to improve innovation performance. Originality/value This is the first application of the fluid mechanics analogy to describe innovation performance. Its main value is related to contributing to the global conversation on innovation.

An easily accessible climate data portal, http://yorku.ca/ocdp, was developed and officially launched in 2018 to disseminate a super ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections for the province of Ontario, Canada. The spatial resolution is ~10 km × ~10 km and temporal resolution is one day, UTC. The data covers 120 years from 1981 to 2100. This user-friendly portal provides users with thousands of static and interactive maps, decadal variation trend lines, summary tables, reports and terabytes of bias-corrected downscaled data. The data portal was generated with an emphasis on interactive visualization of climate change information for researchers and the public to understand to what extent climate could change locally under different emission scenarios in the future. This paper presents an introduction to the portal structure and functions, the large extent of the datasets available and the data development methodology.

Urban parks can offer both physical and psychological health benefits to urban dwellers and provide social, economic, and environmental benefits to society. Earlier research on the usage of urban parks relied on fixed distance or walking time to delineate urban park catchment areas. However, actual catchment areas can be affected by many factors other than park surface areas, such as social capital cultivation, cultural adaptation, climate and seasonal variation, and park function and facilities provided. This study advanced this method by using mobile phone data to delineate urban park catchment area. The study area is the 23 special wards of Tokyo or tokubetsu-ku, the core of the capital of Japan. The location data of over 1 million anonymous mobile phone users was collected in 2011. The results show that: (1) the park catchment areas vary significantly by park surface areas: people use smaller parks nearby but also travel further to larger parks; (2) even for the parks in the same size category, there are notable differences in the spatial pattern of visitors, which cannot be simply summarized with average distance or catchment radius; and (3) almost all the parks, regardless of its size and function, had the highest user density right around the vicinity, exemplified by the density-distance function closely follow a decay trend line within 1–2 km radius of the park. As such, this study used the density threshold and density-distance function to measure park catchment. We concluded that the application of mobile phone location data can improve our understanding of an urban park catchment area, provide useful information and methods to analyze the usage of urban parks, and can aid in the planning and policy-making of urban parks.

Evapotranspiration is one of the main important components of hydrologic cycle. Trend analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) provides useful information for understanding the crop water requirements associated with climate change. In this study, monotonic trends were analyzed in monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales at the nine stations selected from Urmia Lake basin. The Mann-Kendall method was used for trend detection. Significant autocorrelation coefficients were taken into account in analysis using the modified version of Mann-Kendall method. In order to estimate the slope of trend line, the Sen’s estimator method was used. The ET0 values estimated using the standard recommended form of the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith. The results showed that more than 66.6% of the annual ET0 time series had positive trends which were significant at 0.10 level. The highest slope of annual ET0 trends belonged to the station Marageh, which was equal to 17.34 mm/year. In the seasonal scale, all of the sites (except Tekab) exhibited significant upward trends for spring season in 0.1 level. In the monthly timescale, unless 6.5% of the tested time series, all of them had downward trends. Analysis of the impacts of climatic variables on trends in ET0 showed that the reason for increasing trends in ET0 was attributed to the increasing trends in both mean air temperature and wind speed, as well as the decreasing trend in the mean relative humidity. Wise use of fresh water in this fragile ecosystem is recommended for future sustainable agricultural activities.

Highways are the mode of transport used for the transportation of the majority of loads and passengers in Brazil; however, the lack of conservation of pavements has caused several economical losses to the country. Only through suitable pavement management the rehabilitation measures taken might ensure a satisfactory level of service. The present research aimed at evaluating the performance of two pavement sections of the federal highway BR-448/RS, in southern Brazil. For three years, the evolution of the pavement structural capacity and functional condition were followed in order to propose performance trends. Deflections, permanent deformations, and surface defects surveys scarcely varied and were quite low due to the thick asphalt layers used (19 cm). On the other hand, segregation of the asphalt mixture was observed when the final layer was laid. That segregation affected pavement texture, reduced tire-road friction, and caused the formation of surface water films; thus, reducing the road safety. In general, the proposed trend lines predicted quite accurately the pavement performance throughout the period evaluated and will be used in the MeDiNa software database for the creation of a new Brazilian pavement design method.

в данной статье рассматривается интенсивность динамики и прямая линия тренда урожайности зерна в СПК Уралы Большеуковского района Омской области, а также указывается ожидаемая в 2019 году урожайность зерновых., this article discusses the intensity of the dynamics and the straight line of the trend of grain productivity in the SEC Ural of the Bolsheukovsky district of the Omsk region, and also indicates the expected grain yield in 2019., №1 (2020)

An experimental model for analyzing ground source cooling system properties is developed, and discussed using three performance parameters. Temperature profile, rate of cooling, and cooling power of the system, followed an exponential-function trend line, with an R-squared value of 0.97. The model is vital in determining geothermal cooling systems' efficiency improvement, and global warming adaptation when coupled to existing air-conditioning systems.

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the impact of legislative changes in the area of sickness insurance on temporary incapacity for work in the Czech Republic. Temporary incapacity for work is presented by their indicators (number of new cases of TIW per 100 insured persons, average duration of one case of TIW and average percentage of TIW). Using regression analysis, the development of individual indicators in the following years based on knowledge of the development of indicators in the years 2000–2017 is estimated. The research results are captured using trend line which displays the possible development in the Czech Republic in the following years. Regression equation presents an approximation of the entered values where the coefficients are determined by the method of least squares, so that the sum of squared deviations of the original values from obtained model would be minimum. The R2 index expresses the degree of reliability of the calculated estimate of the development. There was a rapid decline in the number of cases of incapacity for work, which stopped in 2013, when the values of this indicator slowly pick up an increasing trend. The average percentage of temporary incapacity for work was similar in the same course. On the other hand, the average duration of one case of TIW gradually increased from 28 days to 42.6 days.

South Africa is considered an important source region of atmospheric pollutants, which is compounded by high population- and industrial growth. However, this region is understudied, especially with regard to evaluating long-term trends of atmospheric pollutants. The aim of this study was to perform statistical modelling of SO2, NO2 and O3 long-term trends based on 21-, 19- and 16-year passive sampling datasets available for three South African INDAAF (International network to study Atmospheric Chemistry and Deposition in Africa) sites located within proximity of the pollution hotspot in the industrialised north-eastern interior in South Africa. The interdependencies between local, regional and global parameters on variances in SO2, NO2 and O3 levels were investigated in the model. Long-term temporal trends indicated seasonal and inter-annual variability at all three sites, which could be ascribed to changes in meteorological conditions and/or variances in source contribution. Local, regional and global parameters contributed to SO2 variability, with total solar irradiation (TSI) being the most significant factor at the regional background site, Louis Trichardt (LT). Temperature (T) was the most important factor at Skukuza (SK), located in the Kruger National Park, while population growth (P) made the most substantial contribution at the industrially impacted Amersfoort (AF) site. Air masses passing over the source region also contributed to SO2 levels at SK and LT. Local and regional factors made more substantial contributions to modelled NO2 levels, with P being the most significant factor explaining NO2 variability at all three sites, while relative humidity (RH) was the most important local and regional meteorological factor. The important contribution of P on modelled SO2 and NO2 concentrations was indicative of the impact of increased anthropogenic activities and energy demand in the north-eastern interior of South Africa. Higher SO2 concentrations, associated with lower temperatures, as well as the negative correlation of NO2 levels to RH, reflected the influence of pollution build-up and increased household combustion during winter. ENSO made a significant contribution to modelled O3 levels at all three sites, while the influence of local and regional meteorological factors was also evident. Trend lines for SO2 and NO2 at AF indicated an increase in SO2 and NO2 concentrations over the 19-year sampling period, while an upward trend in NO2 levels at SK signified the influence of growing rural communities. Marginal trends were observed for SO2 at SK, as well as SO2 and NO2 at LT, while O3 remained relatively constant at all three sites. SO2 and NO2 concentrations were higher at AF, while the regional O3 problem was evident at all three sites.

The purpose of this paper is to document and summarize factor returns related to the decline in the stock market due to COVID-19 (“the Coronavirus Crash”). Factor spreads from January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2020 are multiples of historical spreads. For example, the Value-Growth spread observed in March, 2020 is -14.2%, which is the second lowest spread observed from 1951 to present. The paper also expands the research literature by documenting results for factor spreads within twelve large sectors. For example, the Value-Growth spread within 8 of the 12 sectors described herein is -20% or lower. The text of the paper includes highlights of key findings available from Trendline’s proprietary factor database of over 5,000 factor indexes. The Appendix includes returns for over 800 factor indexes across the broad market and key sectors.

Fergana basin formed thick deposits in Cenozoic. Because the deposition rate is fast, the drainage of the formation is not smooth and the under-compaction leads to the abnormal high pressure in the reservoir, which brings great risks to the operation in the well. Due to the difference in formation pressure caused by the dehydration of the mineral like gypsum and the differential migration and distribution of the formation fluid in the later stage, it is very difficult to predict accurately the reservoir pressure. As a result, a few precious work has been done on it. In the work for pressure prediction, the key point is the determination of the normal compaction section of the formation, which is the selection of the normal compaction trend line on the acoustic lnDT-Depth diagram. In this study, the normal compaction trend line of the Upper Tertiary sand-shale formation was determined by multi-well comparison method. Three schemes were discussed for the determination of the normal compaction trend line of the Lower Tertiary carbonate formation. Scheme 1: select the overlying mudstone section to make the normal compaction trend line. Scheme 2: sort out the microcrystalline-micrite limestone in the carbonate stratum as the approximate mudstone to make compaction trend line. Scheme 3: considering the possibility of abnormal high pressure in the whole Lower Tertiary, the normal compaction trend line of the Upper Tertiary is uniformly used for the Lower Tertiary. The equivalent depth method is used in the formation pressure prediction, and the results are comparatively analyzed combined with the measured formation pressure data. Finally, the causes of abnormal high pressure in Fergana basin are discussed.

The article discusses a method of linearizing approximating functions, which makes it possible to describe and predict the properties of complex economic systems using simple functions integrated into the standard Microsoft Excel software package. В статье рассматривается способ линеаризации аппроксимирующих функций, который даёт возможность описывать и прогнозировать свойства сложных экономических систем с помощью простых функций, интегрированных в стандартный пакет программ Microsoft Excel.

The modern conditions of construction companies’ activities in Russia are influenced by various processes: developing globalization, limitation of free trade due to economic sanctions, man-made disasters growth, worldwide digitalization, constantly evolving technologies. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for assessing risk factors’ impact on the financial stability of construction companies using regression analysis based on dependencies between risk factors and financial stability of construction companies on the basis of statistical data over the past 10 years. The following methods were used: questioning of owners and key employees in construction companies on the indicators choice that characterize external risk factors, correlation analysis, regression analysis, expert evaluation method, trend line method. As a result it was revealed that in order to create favorable conditions for the construction companies’ growth, a stable legislative base, a stable ruble rate and an activation of investments in fixed assets are needed. The proposed tool for assessing external risk factors and their impact on the construction companies’ financial sustainability can be used both to assess the organization's environment and to assess various risk situations in order to further use the results in decision-making.

Background The epidemic phenomenon leading to a progressive increase in benzodiazepine prescriptions represents a challenge for healthcare systems. In the hospital setting, indicators of prescription variation and potential of overuse are lacking and are rarely monitored. Inter‐hospital monitoring/benchmarking, via peer‐pressure, can foster the motivation to change. The aim of this investigation was to analyse whether, the reduction in new benzodiazepine prescriptions obtained thanks to a Choosing Wisely campaign, also contributed to reducing inter‐hospital variation. Methods Secondary analysis of a multicentre longitudinal intervention in a network of five teaching hospitals in Switzerland. We set out to explore the effect, on inter‐hospital benzodiazepine prescription variation, of a continuous monitoring/benchmarking strategy, which was proven effective in reducing the intra‐hospital prescription rate. The variance was used to assess inter‐hospital variation. To investigate the impact of the intervention a segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series was performed. Results A total of 36 299 admissions over 42 months were analysed (1 July 2014 to 31 December 2017). Before the intervention a significant constant upward trend in inter‐hospital variability was found (+0.901; SE 0.441; P

The global temperature series is a major indicator of climate change, whereas this indicator has undergone shift in trend over the twentieth century, changing from linear trend to nonlinear trend as a result of structural breaks. This paper investigates global and regional sea surface (SS) and land air surface (LS) temperature series from 1880 to 2016 by means of fractional integration technique. The results show that temperature series are described by trend stationary process, mostly in long memory range in the case of LS temperature while in the case of SS temperature, temperature series are in nonstationary mean reverting range for global and hemispheric temperature as well as for three other regional locations. By applying the multiple structural break test, the trend line is found breaking in many dates, locking up into many regimes which can be described using nonlinear trend structure. Nonlinear trend, based on Chebyshev inequality in the fractional integration framework, shows that global and regional temperature series can be represented using nonlinear trend up to the third order since this further lowers the integration order to long memory range in both SS and LS temperature series.

Finding visualizations with desired patterns is a common goal during data exploration. However, due to the limited expressiveness and flexibility of existing visual analytics systems, pattern-based querying of visualizations has largely been a manual process. We demonstrate ShapeSearch, a system that enables users to express their desired patterns in trend lines using multiple flexible mechanisms --- including natural language and visual regular expressions, and automates the search via an optimized execution engine. Internally, the system leverages an expressive shape query algebra that supports a range of operators and primitives for representing ShapeSearch queries. In our demonstration, conference attendees will learn how the various components of ShapeSearch help accelerate scientific discovery by automating the search for meaningful patterns in trend lines in domains such as genomics and material science.

A full-fledged financial sector can play a significant supporting role in the economic development of the country. Therefore, it is an actual question for financial researchers to make a proper assessment of the current role of national financial sector in supporting economic development in order to identify the existing bottlenecks and find opportunities to improve the overall efficiency of the financial sector in executing its social, economic and innovative functions. For that reason, the article studies the change in the role of Ukrainian financial sector in supporting the economic development in 2003-2017. The author analyzes such parameters as financial depth of financial market segments, intensity of capital accumulation and redistribution of savings through the financial sector. The article also analyzes the index of debt load (Credit-to-GDP) in the Ukrainian economy and identifies gaps with the Credit-to-GDP long-time trend line, which shows a significant lack of credits in the economy. The latter allowed determining the influence of the Ukrainian credit market on the support of the economic growth in this period. Conclusions are made about the characteristics of the financial sector's role and its impact on the allocation of financial resources in the real sector. It is noted that the banks remain the main segment of Ukraine's financial sector. In the bank segment, a predominant share of assets belongs to the state as government and regulator. At the same time, the relative sizes of the other segments such as insurance, stock market and non-banking deposit and credit institutions remain insignificant. However, even in the banking sector, the parameters of intensity of capital attraction, monetization of the economy and financial depth have been declining for a long period of time since the start of the crisis. The same is happening to the Credit-to-GDP indicator whose current state reflects the weak credit support in the economy and a necessity of measures to stimulate credit growth.

The article presents a multidimensional contextual analysis of the fourth wave (March 2016) and the key conclusions of the nationwide sociological monitoring of the status and trendline of Russian ...

The article presents a multidimensional contextual analysis of the fourth wave (March 2016) and the key conclusions of the nationwide sociological monitoring of the status and trendline of Russian society under the new reality, which is influenced by external and internal threats and risks that are in turn intensified by the current economic crisis. It assesses the social–psychological trendline of Russian society during the period under analysis. It reports a deterioration in the mass view of the changes that occurred from 2015 to 2016—a result of the unfulfilled hopes of the population for an easing of crisis-related phenomena—but this shift to pessimistic views is a long way from the results in 1998. The author devotes particular attention to the population’s adaptability. The population’s main strategy of adaptation in 2016 was to economize, which went beyond consumer spending and broadly encompassed investment in human capital. A diagnosis is offered for the systemic change in employer–employee relationships, with the balance of power shifting in these relationships toward exacerbating the powerless position of employees. The article analyzes the stability and variability of the worldview orientations and life priorities of Russians and resources for social integration in Russia’s multiethnic and religious space.

The paper analyzes linear correlations between MODIS parameters, i.e., the albedo, surface temperature, NDVI, and evapotranspiration, and with annual livestock numbers on Mongolian pastures for June–August throughout 2000–2015. The degree of association between the annual livestock density and average spectral properties of pastures were determined at the level of the whole country, region (aimag), and district (sum). Linear trends were assessed in the annual livestock density and spectral properties of the pasture surface within the boundaries of the specified administrative units of Mongolia. The total density and density with consideration for a structure of the livestock population within the stated territories are weakly related to the average spectral parameters of the pasture surfaces for the territories. The exception is Gurvansaikhan district, in which the relationships are significant; an increase in livestock density increases the albedo, decreases NDVI, and eventually reduces the forage reserve. The R2 coefficients of determination reveal insignificant linear trends in albedo, NDVI, and evapotranspiration as opposed to a significant positive trend in livestock density. A cooling trend and decreased precipitation was evident in 2000–2015. In the years of a sharp drop in livestock density (2000 and 2010), the spectral characteristics of pastures exhibit insignificant departures from the trend line, i.e. their sensitivity to a sharp drop in livestock numbers is minimal in the present situation.

The current state of cargo insurance in Ukraine is considered. The analysis of the dynamics was carried out and the main trends were revealed for the change of cargo insurance in terms of gross and net insurance premiums, market shares in the insurance and reinsurance. The constructed exponential trend lines allow predicting the growth of the analyzed indicators. It is proved that, on the one hand, the share of cargo insurance in the domestic market is decreasing, and, on the other hand, the market share of reinsurance is increasing. Thus, insurance companies recognize the significance of risk for this type of insurance and the preferred allocation of responsibilities. Prospects for the development of cargo insurance in Ukraine are formed in integrated transport corridors. It is substantiated that the development of the global supply chain is made possible by these corridors for all industries in the context of the formation of global and integrated markets in digital economy.