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Legacy effects from one disturbance may influence successional pathways by amplifying or buffering forest regeneration after the next disturbance. We assessed vegetation and tree regeneration in non-serotinous Sierra lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. murrayana) stands after a 1984 wildfire which burned with variable severity and again after a high-severity subsequent fire in 2012. The legacy effects of the 1984 fire were amplified; seedlings and saplings were abundant in areas initially burned at low severity (1267 stems ha−1) despite high reburn severity, but regeneration was low in areas twice burned at high severity (31 stems ha−1). Our results suggest that the severity of the 1984 fire may have influenced post-2012 tree regeneration by creating variable fuel loading, which may have affected soils, litter cover and shade after the 2012 fire and therefore affected seedling establishment and survival. A canopy seed bank of unburnt cones from trees killed by the 2012 fire potentially contributed to a strong effect of prior burn severity on regeneration after the 2012 fire despite a lack of serotinous or resprouting tree species, although the influence of this canopy seedbank was likely limited to the year following the fire. Our results suggest that a low- to moderate-severity fire increases forest resilience relative to a high-severity fire even when the next fire burns at high severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire sizes and proportions burned with high severity effects are increasing in seasonally dry forests, especially in the western USA. A critical need in efforts to restore or maintain these forest ecosystems is to determine where fuel build-up caused by fire exclusion reaches thresholds that compromise resilience to fire. Empirical studies identifying drivers of fire severity patterns in actual wildfires can be confounded by co-variation of vegetation and topography and the stochastic effects of weather and rarely consider long-term changes in fuel caused by fire exclusion. To overcome these limitations, we used a spatially explicit fire model (FlamMap) to compare potential fire behavior by topographic position in Lassen Volcanic National Park (LAVO), California, a large (43,000 ha), mountainous, unlogged landscape with extensive historical and contemporary fuels data. Fuel loads were uniformly distributed and incrementally increased across the landscape, meaning variation in fire behavior within each simulation was due to topography and among simulations, to fuels. We analyzed changes in fire line intensity (FLI) and crown fire potential as surface and canopy fuels increased from historical to contemporary levels and with percentile and actual wildfire weather conditions. Sensitivity to the influence of fuel build-up on fire behavior varied by topographic position. Steep slopes and ridges were most sensitive. At lower surface fuel loads, under pre-exclusion and contemporary canopy conditions, fire behavior was comparable and remained surface-type. As fuels increased, FLI and passive crown fire increased on steep slopes and ridgetops but remained largely unchanged on gentle slopes. Topographic variability in fire behavior was greatest with intermediate fuels. At higher surface fuel loads, under contemporary canopy fuels, passive crown fire dominated all topographic positions. With LAVO's current surface fuels, the area with potential for passive crown fire during actual fire weather increased from 6% pre-exclusion to 34% due to canopy fuel build-up. For topographically diverse landscapes, the results highlight where contemporary fire characteristics are most likely to deviate from historical patterns and may help managers prioritize locations for prescribed burning and managed wildfire to increase fire resilience in fuel rich landscapes. • Effects of fuel build-up on fire behavior are strongest on steep slopes and ridges. • Variability in fire behavior by topographic position peaks at intermediate fuel loads. • Fire exclusion fuels cause 4-fold increase in passive crown fire across the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.