Search

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. A process-based projection for the Mississippi River basin suggests that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7–59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), although large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high-emission scenario (A2) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, while climate change would still play the dominant role under the low-emission scenario (B1). This study highlights the important role of anthropogenic factors in influencing future hydrological processes and water resources.

Coastal ocean connectivity associated with the Gulf of Maine (GOM) surface flows in spring and summer seasons of 2004–2009 is studied using surface numerical particle tracking based on realistic regional ocean circulation hindcast solutions. Seven initial particle release sites are selected in key gulf regions often affected by harmful algal (Alexandrium fundyense) blooms, including Massachusetts Bay, the western GOM coastal area, the eastern GOM coastal area, the Bay of Fundy, Wilkinson Basin, the Jordan Basin, and a region seaward of Penobscot Bay. Surface particles are released every 5 days between February 1st and August 1st in each year, and the variability in their trajectories on interannual time scales is quantified by Lagrangian probability density function calculations. Coastal connectivity is further quantified using a connectivity matrix, identifying source and destination functions. Our results suggest that the interannual variability in coastal connectivity has strong impact on the spatial distribution of A. fundyense blooms in each year.

The spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) is examined using daily, cloud-free Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) reconstructions during 2003–2012. The utility of the DINEOF SST and Chl-a is demonstrated through direct comparisons with buoy- and ship-based observations. EOF analyses of cloud-free products are further used to quantify the SST and Chl-a variability on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. The first mode of SST is dominated by an annual cycle in response to net surface heat flux, with SST lagging surface flux by ~ 57 days. The second mode of SST underscores interactions between GOM, the Scotian Shelf, and the slope sea in response to the basin scale atmospheric forcing represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The third mode correlates well with the evolution of Scotian Shelf-slope frontal displacement. The first EOF mode of Chl-a is dominated by a winter–spring bloom and a fall bloom, with a spatial distribution modified by the tidal mixing that facilitates nutrient delivery from the deep ocean. The second EOF mode is likely associated with a winter bloom in the warm slope sea, where the low-frequency variations of second modes of SST and Chl-a are in phase, suggesting a possible coupling between physical and biological responses to atmospheric forcing. The third mode of the Chl-a is likely associated with freshening events associated with advection of the Scotian Shelf Water, which enhance stratifications in the eastern GOM.

Upper ocean responses to tropical storms/hurricanes have been extensively studied using satellite observations. However, resolving concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (chl a) responses along storm tracks remains a major challenge due to extensive cloud coverage in satellite images. Here we produce daily cloud-free SST and chl a reconstructions based on the Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function method over a 10 year period (2003–2012) for the Gulf of Mexico and Sargasso Sea regions. Daily reconstructions allow us to characterize and contrast previously obscured subweekly SST and chl a responses to storms in the two main storm-impacted regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Statistical analyses of daily SST and chl a responses revealed regional differences in the response time as well as the response sensitivity to maximum sustained wind speed and translation speed. This study demonstrates that SST and chl a responses clearly depend on regional ocean conditions and are not as universal as might have been previously suggested.

[1] Satellite-derived sea level anomaly fields constructed by combining measurements from simultaneously operating altimeters are used to quantify properties and propagation characteristics of eddies in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Eddy detection and eddy tracking algorithms are applied to 19 years of high-resolution observations available at weekly intervals. Inshore of the 800 m isobath, eddies are most frequently observed at and downstream of the Charleston Bump (a major topographic feature located at 31–32°N), a region where the amplitude of most eddies is increased. The bump is also a preferred region for eddy generation. The amplitude of eddies is found to increase with water depth. Eddies generated in the SAB tend to propagate westward toward the coast and to the northeast, presumably due to the influence of the strong mean northeastward flow of the Gulf Stream. Those eddies are highly nonlinear, with potential to trap water in their interior as they propagate. Since a large fraction of the eddies that at some point in their histories are found inshore of the 800 m isobath experience large bathymetric changes along their trajectories, they can potentially serve as efficient mechanisms for cross-isobath transport in the SAB. Analysis of temporal variability in eddy activity suggests that cross-isobath transport due to nonlinear eddies may be significant during all seasons, but will likely be characterized by large interannual variability.

The data interpolating empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) method is applied to concurrent MODIS sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) data to produce daily, 4 km, cloud-free SST and chl-a analyses for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 2003 to 2009. Comparisons between SST analysis and in situ buoy temperature measurements indicate that the DINEOF method can accurately resolve temperature variability and solve the cloud-cover problem, which is a typical issue of remote-sensing observations. Based on significant correlations between cloud-free chl-a, SST and sea surface height (SSH) data in the GOM, a simple chl-a statistical prediction model is further developed. Favourable comparisons between model solutions and independent satellite chl-a observations indicate that the statistical model provides a feasible means to predict GOM chl-a field based on existing SST and SSH information, allowing for observational gap fillings when concurrent chl-a data were not available.

A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine (GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.

A high-resolution, regional coupled air–sea model is used to investigate the effect of the Gulf Stream (GS) on surface wind convergence during winter extratropical cyclone (ETC) outbreaks in January 2005 off the east coast United States. Validations against marine buoy-observed surface wind, sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) show decent model skill. Model analyses indicate that the surface wind convergence and the Laplacian of SLP and SST are proportionate on the synoptic time scale. Strong upward vertical motions and ocean heat loss over the GS support rapid ETC intensification. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Using data on ocean circulation with a Lagrangian larval transport model, we modeled the potential dispersal distances for seven species of bathyal invertebrates whose durations of larval life have been estimated from laboratory rearing, MOCNESS plankton sampling, spawning times, and recruitment. Species associated with methane seeps in the Gulf of Mexico and/or Barbados included the bivalve "Bathymodiolus" childressi, the gastropod Bathynerita naticoidea, the siboglinid polychaete tube worm Lamellibrachia luymesi, and the asteroid Sclerasterias tanneri. Non-seep species included the echinoids Cidaris blakei and Stylocidaris lineata from sedimented slopes in the Bahamas and the wood-dwelling sipunculan Phascolosoma turnerae, found in Barbados, the Bahamas, and the Gulf of Mexico. Durations of the planktonic larval stages ranged from 3 weeks in lecithotrophic tubeworms to more than 2 years in planktotrophic starfish. Planktotrophic sipunculan larvae from the northern Gulf of Mexico were capable of reaching the mid-Atlantic off Newfoundland, a distance of more than 3000 km, during a 7- to 14-month drifting period, but the proportion retained in the Gulf of Mexico varied significantly among years. Larvae drifting in the upper water column often had longer median dispersal distances than larvae drifting for the same amount of time below the permanent thermocline, although the shapes of the distance-frequency curves varied with depth only in the species with the longest larval trajectories. Even species drifting for >2 years did not cross the ocean in the North Atlantic Drift.

A Coupled Wave–Ocean–Sediment Transport Model was used to hindcast coastal circulation and fine sediment transport on the Mekong shelf in southeastern Asian in 2005. Comparisons with limited observations showed that the model simulation captured the regional patterns and temporal variability of surface wave, sea level, and suspended sediment concentration reasonably well. Significant seasonality in sediment transport was revealed. In summer, a large amount of fluvial sediments was delivered and deposited near the Mekong River mouth. In the following winter, strong ocean mixing, and coastal current lead to resuspension and southwestward dispersal of a small fraction of previously deposited sediments. Model sensitivity experiments (with reduced physics) were performed to investigate the impact of tides, waves, and remotely forced ambient currents on the transport and dispersal of the fluvial sediment. Strong wave mixing and downwelling-favorable coastal current associated with the more energetic northeast monsoon in the winter season are the main factors controlling the southwestward along-shelf transport.

A high-resolution hybrid data assimilative (DA) modeling system is adapted to study the M2 barotropic tidal characteristics and dynamics in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. In situ data include tidal harmonics extracted from both coastal sea level and bottom pressure observations. The hybrid DA system consists of both forward and inverse models. The former is three-dimensional, finite-difference, nonlinear Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The latter is a three-dimensional, linearized, frequency-domain, finite-element model TRUXTON. The DA system assimilates in situ observations via the inversion of the barotropic tidal open boundary conditions (OBCs). Model skill is evaluated by comparing misfits between the observed and modeled tidal harmonics. The assimilation scheme is found effective and efficient in correcting the tidal OBCs, which in turn improves ROMS tidal solutions. Up to 50% reduction of model/data misfits is achieved after data assimilation. M2 co-tidal maps constructed from the posterior (data assimilative) ROMS solutions agree well with observational analysis of (Fang et al. 2004). Detailed analyses on tidal mixing, residual current, energy flux, dissipation, and momentum term balance dynamics are performed for M2 constituent, revealing complex M2 tidal characteristics in the study region and the important role of coastal geometry and topography in affecting regional tidal dynamics.

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization ( OOST ) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization ( TY2001 ), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

For the period 2005–2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding fall was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring-summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in fall 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004–2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring-summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A.fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyense’s niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early-season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyense’s endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.

Long-term (2002–2008) buoy observations, satellite imagery, and regional ocean circulation hindcast solutions were used to investigate the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) cold event that occurred in summer 2003. Observations confirmed that SAB shelf water temperature during the event was significantly colder than their 7-year (2002–2008) mean states. The cold event consisted of 6 distinctive cold wakes, which were likely related with intra-seasonal oscillations in wind fields. The upwelling index analyses based on both in situ buoy wind and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) highlighted that the upwelling favorable winds in 2003 were the strongest and most persistent over the 7-year study period. The regional circulation model hindcast driven by the large scale data assimilative model, NARR surface meteorological forcing and coastal river runoff generally reproduced observed hydrodynamic variability during the event. Further model analyses revealed a close relationship between the cold bottom water intrusion and the Gulf Stream (GS) core intensity and its position relative to the shelf break. Being more intensive and shoreward located, the GS worked in concert with strong upwelling favorable wind field to produce abnormal upwelling in summer 2003.

Daily, cloud-free data interpolating empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll (Chl-a) satellite imagery are compiled into monthly mean images for a six-year period (2003–2008) and used to identify their spatial and temporal variability on the South Atlantic Bight. Monthly-mean SST has the highest variability on the inner-shelf, decreasing seaward approaching the more stable temperatures of the Gulf Stream (GS). Monthly-mean Chl-a concentrations are similarly highest on the inner shelf throughout the year and decrease cross-shelf toward the nutrient depleted open ocean. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on SST and Chl-a show a clear seasonal cycle in their 1st mode of variability, with SST lagging behind Chl-a by approximately one month. The 1st EOF modes account for 95.8% and 46.4% variance of SST and Chl-a, respectively. Chl-a EOF mode 1 in particular shows a highly regionalized spatial pattern with values on the central SAB clearly out of phase with the southern and northern SAB. This regional difference is likely a result of shelf geometry and stratification, which modulate GS influence on the shelf. SST EOF mode 2 exhibits a seasonal cycle as well, which previous studies have shown to be a function of local wind. Chl-a EOF mode 2 is well correlated with the cumulative river transport onto the SAB, but accounts for a relatively small 10.8% of Chl-a variability.

A nested high-resolution ocean model is used to hindcast the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) shelfbreak circulation from December 2003 to June 2008. The model is driven by tidal harmonics, realistic atmospheric forcing, and dynamically consistent initial and open boundary conditions obtained from a large-scale circulation model. Simulated shelfbreak sea levels and tracer fields compare favorably with satellite observations and available in situ hydrographic climatology, demonstrating the utility of this nested ocean model for resolving the MAB shelfbreak circulation. The resulting time and space continuous hindcast solutions between January 2004 and December 2007 are used to describe the mean structures and temporal variations of the shelfbreak front and jet, the bottom boundary layer detachment, and the migration of the shelfbreak front. It is found that the shelfbreak jet and boundary convergence reach their maximum intensities in the spring, at which time the foot of the front also migrates to its farthest offshore position. Vorticity analyses reveal that the magnitude ratio of the mean relative vorticity between the seaward and the shoreward portions of the shelfbreak front is about 2:1. The shelfbreak ageostrophic circulation is largely controlled by the viscosity in the boundary layers and by the nonlinear advection in the flow interior. Simulated three-dimensional velocity and tracer fields are used to estimate the transport and heat and salt fluxes across the 200-m isobath. Within the model domain, the total cross-shelf water transport, the total eddy heat flux, and the total eddy salt flux are 0.035 ± 0.26 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), 1.0 × 103 ± 4 × 104 W m−2, and 6.7 × 10−5 ± 7.0 × 10−4 kg m−2 s−1. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the 4-yr shelfbreak circulation hindcast solutions identifies two dominant modes. The first EOF mode accounts for 61% variance, confirming that the shelfbreak jet is a persistent year-round circulation feature. The second mode accounts for 13% variance, representing the baroclinic eddy passages across the shelf break.

Understanding the processes responsible for coastal change is important for managing our coastal resources, both natural and economic. The current scientific understanding of coastal sediment transport and geology suggests that examining coastal processes at regional scales can lead to significant insight into how the coastal zone evolves. To better identify the significant processes affecting our coastlines and how those processes create coastal change we developed a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System, which is comprised of the Model Coupling Toolkit to exchange data fields between the ocean model ROMS, the atmosphere model WRF, the wave model SWAN, and the sediment capabilities of the Community Sediment Transport Model. This formulation builds upon previous developments by coupling the atmospheric model to the ocean and wave models, providing one-way grid refinement in the ocean model, one-way grid refinement in the wave model, and coupling on refined levels. Herein we describe the modeling components and the data fields exchanged. The modeling system is used to identify model sensitivity by exchanging prognostic variable fields between different model components during an application to simulate Hurricane Isabel during September 2003. Results identify that hurricane intensity is extremely sensitive to sea surface temperature. Intensity is reduced when coupled to the ocean model although the coupling provides a more realistic simulation of the sea surface temperature. Coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere also results in decreased boundary layer stress and coupling of the waves to the atmosphere results in increased bottom stress. Wave results are sensitive to both ocean and atmospheric coupling due to wave–current interactions with the ocean and wave growth from the atmosphere wind stress. Sediment resuspension at regional scale during the hurricane is controlled by shelf width and wave propagation during hurricane approach.

High-resolution, physical-biological models of coastal and shelf regions typically use a single functional phytoplankton group, which limits their ability to represent ecological gradients (e.g. highly productive shelf systems adjacent to oligotrophic regions), as these are dominated by different functional phytoplankton groups. We implemented a size-structured ecosystem model in a high-resolution, regional circulation model of the northeast North American shelf and adjacent deep ocean in order to assess whether the added functional complexity of two functional phytoplankton groups improves the model's ability to represent surface chlorophyll concentrations along an ecological gradient encompassing five distinct regions. We used satellite-derived SST and sea-surface chlorophyll for our model assessment, as these allow investigation of spatial variability and temporal variations from monthly to interannual, and analyzed three complimentary statistical measures of model-data agreement: model bias, root-mean-squared error and model efficiency (or skill). All three measures were integrated for the whole domain, for distinct subregions and were calculated in a spatially explicit manner. Comparison with a previously published simulation that used a model with a single phytoplankton functional group indicates that the inclusion of an additional phytoplankton group representing picoplankton markedly improves the model's skill.

In-situ observations and a coupled bio-physical model were used to study the germination, initiation, and development of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) Alexandrium fundyense bloom in 2006. Hydrographic measurements and comparisons with GOM climatology indicate that 2006 was a year with normal coastal water temperature, salinity, current and river runoff conditions. A. fundyense cyst abundance in bottom sediments preceding the 2006 bloom was at a moderate level compared to other recent annual cyst survey data. We used the coupled bio-physical model to hindcast coastal circulation and A. fundyense cell concentrations. Field data including water temperature, salinity, velocity time series and surface A. fundyense cell concentration maps were applied to gauge the model's fidelity. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the hydrodynamics and the temporal and spatial distributions of A. fundyense cell concentration reasonably well. Model hindcast solutions were further used to diagnose physical and biological factors controlling the bloom dynamics. Surface wind fields modulated the bloom's horizontal and vertical distribution. The initial cyst distribution was found to be the dominant factor affecting the severity and the interannual variability of the A. fundyense bloom. Initial cyst abundance for the 2006 bloom was about 50% of that prior to the 2005 bloom. As the result, the time-averaged gulf-wide cell concentration in 2006 was also only about 60% of that in 2005. In addition, weaker alongshore currents and episodic upwelling-favorable winds in 2006 reduced the spatial extent of the bloom as compared with 2005.

Toxic Florida red tides of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis have downstream consequences of 500–1000 km spatial extent. Fish stocks, shellfish beds, and harmful algal blooms of similar species occupy the same continental shelf waters of the southeastern United States, amounting to economic losses of more than 25 million dollars in some years. Under the aegis of the Center for Prediction of Red tides, we are now developing coupled biophysical models of the conditions that lead to red tides and impacted coastal fisheries, from the Florida Panhandle to Cape Hatteras. Here, a nitrogen isotope budget of the coastal food web of the West Florida shelf (WFS) and the downstream South Atlantic Bight (SAB) reaffirms that diazotrophs are the initial nutrient source for onset of red tides and now identifies clupeid fish as the major recycled nutrient source for their maintenance. The recent isotope budget of WFS and SAB coastal waters during 1998–2001 indicates that since prehistoric times of Timacua Indian settlements along the Georgia coast during 1075, ∼50% of the nutrients required for large red tides of >1 μg chl l −1 of K. brevis have been derived from nitrogen-fixers, with the other half from decomposing dead sardines and herrings. During 2001, >90% of the harvest of WFS clupeids was by large ichthyotoxic red tides of >10 μg chl l −1 of K. brevis , rather than by fishermen. After onset of the usual red tides in summer of 2006 and 2007, the simulated subsequent fall exports of Florida red tides in September 2007 to North Carolina shelf waters replicate observations of just ∼1 μg chl l −1 on the WFS that year. In contrast, the earlier red tides of >10 μg chl l −1 left behind off West Florida during 2006, with less physical export, are instead 10-fold larger than those of 2007. Earlier, 55 fish kills were associated with these coastal red tides during September 2006, between Tampa and Naples. Yet, only six fish kills were reported there in September 2007. With little export of red tides and their fish prey during the former year, the computed larger nutrient-sated, fish-fed growth rates of the model’s dinoflagellates also replicate satellite-observed daily increments of K. brevis during fall maintenance in 2006, compared to simulated smaller fish-starved growth rates of decanted red tides during fall 2007. During the last few decades, K. brevis has remained a “prudent predator” of some clupeids, i.e. Spanish sardine, whereas humans have now overfished other Florida stocks of both thread herring and Atlantic shad. Thus, future operational forecasts of the land falls and durations of Florida red tides, from Louisiana to North Carolina, as well as prudent management of regional fisheries of the southeastern United States, require consideration of negelected fish losses, at intermediate trophic levels, to algal predators. Some clupeids are harvested by K. brevis , but these fish are separately supported by a longer parallel diatom-based food chain of calanoid copepods, feeding the zooplanktivores and thence other piscivore fish predators, while intersecting the shorter food chain of just diazotrophs and red tide dinoflagellates, poorly grazed in turn by harpactacoid copepods. The distinct phytoplankton functional groups, different herbivores, as well as zoophagous and piscivore fishes, must all be formulated as explicit state variables of the next set of complex ecological models, cued by satellite data and driven by nested circulation models, within an ecosystem-based management paradigm of commercial and sport harvests of biotic marine resources at higher trophic levels of the WFS and SAB.

The availability of iron within the surface waters of the broad, oligotrophic West Florida Shelf (WFS) controls periodic blooms of the pelagic marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. Summer delivery of Saharan dust provided adequate iron (Fe) to shift limitation of growth to the availability of phosphorus (P). Florida's rivers drain Miocene phosphorus deposits to provide the WFS with freshwater nutrient supplies at molar dissolved inorganic nitrogen/phosphate (DIN/PO4) ratios of

The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L−1) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×106 cells L−1 in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 μE m−2 s−1 isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L−1. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.

North Carolina and Florida are likely the only two states on the US east coast that have practical access to energy extraction from the Gulf Stream. After leaving the Florida Straits, the Gulf Stream in the region offshore of Cape Hatteras, NC exhibits the least variability in position of any location on the east coast, while simultaneously being closest to land. Gulf Stream current speeds exceed 2 m/s. These important characteristics have made this area the focus of observations and regional model estimates to quantify the hydrokinetic energy that may be available from the Gulf Stream for the state of North Carolina. Three types of observations to quantify the energy resource off NC began in 2013. A 150 kHz Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) was moored on the 225-m isobath at the location estimated to be best for energy extraction, and recovered after two consecutive nine- and ten-month deployments, respectively. Another ADCP was moored in nearly the same location to continue observations, and will be retrieved in August 2015. Currents from the first deployment averaged 1.15 m/s, and the power density was 779 W/m2 at a depth of 30m over the 9-month duration. Significant variability in current speed, and thus power, occurred over the deployment period. Additionally, current measurements from a vessel mounted 300 kHz ADCP were made from water depths of 100m to 1000 m on a cross-isobath transect that passed over the location of the ADCP mooring. Currents measured from the vessel compare favorably with those from the moored 150 kHz ADCP in both magnitude and direction, and provide valuable information about the spatial variability of the current and its dependence on depth. In 2013, a coastal ocean radar (Codar) was added to an existing radar network that had been measuring ocean surface currents for more than a decade in the region to expand coverage over the entire study area. The radar current measurements provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage throughout the Gulf Stream cyclonic shear zone, and are being used to measure the variability in Gulf Stream position off of Cape Hatteras, NC. One method being developed using measurements from individual radars assumes the landward Gulf Stream front lies along selected maxima in the radial current shears chosen for consistency over the time period sampled, and magnitude. The locations where the Gulf Stream first enters and exits the radar coverage area are apparent in the large radial speeds measured by the radar, and the width and variability of the Gulf Stream cyclonic shear zone is estimated using maxima in velocity and velocity shears. Favorable comparisons between the three current observations will provide confidence that power estimates can be extrapolated from the radar surface currents alone over long time periods when ADCP information may not be available. Finally, observations are being compared with a regional specific Mid-Atlantic Bight and South Atlantic Bight (MABSAB) Model. Moored ADCP current measurements compared favorably with the model, demonstrating the skill of the model for power estimates in this area. Averaged current measurements 30 m below the surface from the ADCP mooring made between August 2013–April 2014 and model estimates at the same location were nearly identical, both having average current speeds of 1.15 m/s. The model is more conservative than the observations with respect to higher frequency fluctuations in speed and direction.

Kourafalou, V.H. et al., ecent advances in Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) are discussed. Emphasis is given to the integration of the observational and modeling components, each developed in the context of monitoring and forecasting in the coastal seas. These integrated systems must be linked to larger scale systems toward seamless data sets, nowcasts and forecasts (from the global ocean, through the continental shelf and to the nearshore regions). Emerging capabilities include: methods to optimize coastal/regional observational networks; and probabilistic approaches to address both science and applications related to COFS. International collaboration is essential to exchange best practices, achieve common frameworks and establish standards., V. Kourafalou acknowledges support from NOAA (NA13OAR4830224 and NA11NOS4780045). M. Herzfeld is thankful to the eReefs marine modeling team and partners (CSIRO: Commonwealth Industrial and Scientific Research Organization; SIEF: Science and Industry Endowment Fund; AIMS: Australian Institute of Marine Science). The system CGOFS_ECS (material contributed by X. Zhu) is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (contract #41222038). E. V. Stanev acknowledges the input from COSYNA, which is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers

To assist in the development of mooring and foundation solutions for ocean current based electricity production, an overview of the resource and seafloor characteristics in three potential power production regions are presented. These regions are offshore Florida USA, North Carolina USA, and South Africa. Maximum measured flow speed off both the USA and South Africa were around 3.0 m/s and maximum temporally averaged energy densities were between 2.0 - 3.0 kW/m2. Water depths at considered locations range from 60-400 m, and bottom type varies greatly. Most evaluated locations contain occasional flow reversals and occasions when current speed approached 0.0 m/s (only locations near the core of the Gulfstream off SE Florida did not measure either event). While low current events are undesirable from energy production and mooring design perspectives, they might provide unique opportunities to install or maintain equipment.

International audience; Earth system models have been used for climate predictions in recent years due to their capabilities to include biogeochemical cycles, human impacts, as well as coupled and interactive representations of Earth system components (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice). In this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with advanced chemistry and aerosol treatments, referred to as CESM-NCSU, is applied for decadal (2001-2010) global climate predictions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed focusing on the atmospheric component-the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) by comparing simulation results with observations/reanalysis data and CESM ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The improved model can predict most meteorological and radiative variables relatively well with normalized mean biases (NMBs) of -14.1 to -9.7% and 0.7-10.8%, respectively, although temperature at 2 m (T2) is slightly underpredicted. Cloud variables such as cloud fraction (CF) and precipitating water vapor (PWV) are well predicted, with NMBs of -10.5 to 0.4%, whereas cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), cloud liquid water path (LWP), and cloud optical thickness (COT) are moderately-to-largely underpredicted, with NMBs of -82.2 to -31.2%, and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is overpredictd by 26.7%. These biases indicate the limitations and uncertainties associated with cloud microphysics (e.g., resolved clouds and subgrid-scale cumulus clouds). Chemical concentrations over the continental U.S. (CONUS) (e.g., SO42-, Cl-, OC, and PM2.5) are reasonably well predicted with NMBs of -12.8 to -1.18%. Concentrations of SO2, SO42-, and PM10 are also reasonably well predicted over Europe with NMBs of -20.8 to -5.2%, so are predictions of SO2 concentrations over the East Asia with an NMB of -18.2%, and the tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) over the globe with an NMB of -3.5%. Most meteorological and radiative variables predicted by CESM-NCSU agree well overall with those predicted by CESM-CMIP5. The performance of LWP and AOD predicted by CESM-NCSU is better than that of CESM-CMIP5 in terms of model bias and correlation coefficients. Large biases for some chemical predictions can be attributed to uncertainties in the emissions of precursor gases (e.g., SO2, NH3, and NOx) and primary aerosols (black carbon and primary organic matter) as well as uncertainties in formulations of some model components (e.g., online dust and sea-salt emissions, secondary organic aerosol formation, and cloud microphysics). Comparisons of CESM simulation with baseline emissions and 20% of anthropogenic emissions from the baseline emissions indicate that anthropogenic gas and aerosol species can decrease downwelling shortwave radiation (FSDS) by 4.7 W m(-2) (or by 2.9%) and increase SWCF by 3.2 W m(-2) (or by 3.1%) in the global mean.

Neural network analyses based on the self-organizing map (SOM) and the growing hierarchical self-organizing map (GHSOM) are used to examine patterns of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the West Florida Shelf from time series of daily SST maps from 1998 to 2002. Four characteristic SST patterns are extracted in the first-layer GHSOM array: winter and summer season patterns, and two transitional patterns. Three of them are further expanded in the second layer, yielding more detailed structures in these seasons. The winter pattern is one of low SST, with isotherms aligned approximately along isobaths. The summer pattern is one of high SST distributed in a horizontally uniform manner. The spring transition includes a midshelf cold tongue. Similar analyses performed on SST anomaly data provide further details of these seasonally varying patterns. It is demonstrated that the GHSOM analysis is more effective in extracting the inherent SST patterns than the widely used EOF method. The underlying patterns in a dataset can be visualized in the SOM array in the same form as the original data, while they can only be expressed in anomaly form in the EOF analysis. Some important features, such as asymmetric SST anomaly patterns of winter/summer and cold/warm tongues, can be revealed by the SOM array but cannot be identified in the lowest mode EOF patterns. Also, unlike the EOF or SOM techniques, the hierarchical structure in the input data can be extracted by the GHSOM analysis.

From May to July, 2005, an extensive bloom of Alexandrium fundyense occurred along the coast of southern New England. The outbreak eventually closed shellfish beds from central Maine to Massachusetts, including Nantucket Island and portions of Martha’s Vineyard, and resulted in the closure of 40,000 km 2 of offshore federal waters as well. The coastal Alexandrium bloom was exceptional in several ways: high toxin levels were measured farther south than ever before in New England; levels of toxicity in many locations were higher than previously observed at those stations; for the first time toxicity at some locations was above quarantine levels; cell concentrations far exceeded those observed in the coastal waters of southern New England in the past; and for the first time in the region the governors of Maine and Massachusetts officially declared the red tide to be a disaster, clearing the way for federal assistance. Initial observations suggest that several factors contributed to this bloom. Abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt substantially increased the amount of fresh water entering the Gulf of Maine. Combined with other freshwater inputs, we hypothesize that this provided macro- and micro-nutrients, a stratified water column, and a transport mechanism that led to high cell abundances and broad, region-wide dispersal of the organism. Warm temperatures in western waters also would have favored A. fundyense growth. In addition, several storms with strong winds out of the northeast occurred at times when cells were abundant and in locations where the winds could advect them into Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays and keep them there, leading to high cell concentrations and toxicity. Another contributing factor may have been the high abundance of newly deposited cysts in western Gulf of Maine sediments, as documented in a fall 2004 survey. Here, we evaluate this bloom and the patterns of toxicity in light of the conceptual models for A. fundyense dynamics developed during the Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB)–Gulf of Maine (GOM) program. Several features of the 2005 bloom conform to the mechanisms proposed in those models, including the alongshore transport of cells in major water masses and episodic intrusions of cells toward shore due to downwelling-favorable wind forcings. The

Author Posting. © Oceanography Society, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 17, 2 (2004): 68-75.

The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current intruded upon the West Florida continental shelf in June 2000. In situ currents and hydrography along with satellite temperature and altimetry measurements are used to describe this event and its effects on the shelf. A strong southward current is observed to flow along the shelf slope seaward of the intruded water boundary. This current transported cold, nutrient-rich water from the north, thereby producing anomalous hydrographic features near the shelf break (80-m isobath). An array of moored velocity profilers reveals that the currents landward of the intruded water are independent of the Loop Current and primarily driven by local winds. A series of idealized numerical model simulations inclusive of forcing by both the Loop Current and local winds confirm the observational findings that the shelfbreak currents are largely Loop Current controlled while the shelf currents are largely controlled by the local winds.

The principal semidiurnal (M2 and S2) and diurnal (K1 and O1) tidal constituents are described on the west Florida continental shelf (WFS) using a combination of in situ measurements and a three-dimensional, primitive equation numerical model. The measurements are of sea level and currents along the coastline and across the shelf, respectively. The model extends from west of the Mississippi River to the Florida Keys with an open boundary arcing between. It is along this open boundary that the regional model is forced by a global tide model. Standard barotropic tidal analyses are performed for both the data and the model, and quantifiable metrics are provided for comparison. Based on these comparisons, the authors present coamplitude and cophase charts for sea level and velocity hodographs for currents. The semidiurnal constituents show marked spatial variability, whereas the diurnal constituents are spatially more uniform. Apalachicola Bay is a demarcation point for the semidiurnal tides that are well developed to the southeast along the WFS but are minimal to the west. The largest semidiurnal tides are in the Florida Big Bend and Florida Bay regions with a relative minimum in between just to the south of Tampa Bay. These spatial distributions may be explained on the basis of local geometry. A Lagrangian Stokes drift, coherently directed toward the northwest, is identified but is of relatively small magnitude when compared with the potential for particle transport by seasonal and synoptic-scale forcing. Bottom stressinduced tidal mixing is examined and estimates are made of the bottom logarithmic layer height by the M2 tidal currents.

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a fall transition as the net heat flux changes from warming to cooling. Using in situ data and a numerical model we investigate the circulation on the west Florida shelf (WFS) for the fall transition of 1998. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind, air pressure, and heat flux fields, plus river inflows. After comparison with observations the model is used to draw inferences on the seasonal and synoptic scale features of the shelf circulation. By running twin experiments, one without and the other with an idealized Loop Current (LC), we explore the relative importance of local versus deep-ocean forcing. We find that local forcing largely controls the inner-shelf circulation, including changes from the Florida Panhandle in the north to regions farther south. The effects of the LC in fall 1998 are to reinforce the mid-shelf currents and to increase the across-shelf transports in the bottom Ekman layer, thereby accentuating the shoreward transport of cold, nutrient rich water of deep-ocean origin. A three-dimensional analysis of the temperature budget reveals that surface heat flux largely controls both the seasonal and synoptic scale temperature variations. Surface cooling leads to convective mixing that rapidly alters temperature gradients. One interesting consequence is that upwelling can result in near-shore warming as warmer offshore waters are advected landward. The temperature balances on the shelf are complex and fully three-dimensional.

In situ observations including long-term moored meteorological and oceanographic measurements and multi-year gulf-wide ship survey data are used to quantify interannual variability of surface wind, river runoff, and hydrographic conditions in the Gulf of Maine during summers 2002–2011. The cumulative upwelling index shows that upwelling (downwelling)-favorable wind conditions were most persistent in 2010 (2005) over the 10-year study period. River discharge was highest in 2005; peak runoff occurred in early April in 2010 as opposed to late April to middle May in other years. Moored time series show that coastal water temperature was 0.5–2 °C warmer than average in summer 2010, and about 2 °C colder than average in 2004. Coastal salinity in April 2010 was the lowest in the 10-year study period. Both moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements and dynamic height/geostrophic velocity calculations based on gulf-wide ship survey data show May–June 2010 had one of the weakest alongshore transports in the western Gulf of Maine during the 10-year study period, likely associated with intrusions of warm slope water and fresher-than-usual Scotian Shelf water. Comparisons of coastal currents to the Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) closure maps resulting from Alexandrium fundyense blooms suggest a linkage between alongshore transport and the downstream extent of toxicity.

The inaccessibility of open ocean habitat and the cryptic nature of small animals are fundamental problems when assessing the distribution of oceanic-stage sea turtles and other marine animals sharing similar life-history traits. Most methods that estimate patterns of abundance cannot be applied in situations that are extremely data limited. Here, we use a movement ecology framework to generate the first predicted distributions for the oceanic stage of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle ( Lepidochelys kempii ). Our simulations of particle dispersal within ocean circulation models reveal substantial annual variation in distribution and survival among simulated cohorts. Such techniques can help prioritize areas for conservation, and supply inputs for more realistic demographic models attempting to characterize population trends.

A three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nitrogen input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004–2010) was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in situ observations including coastal sea level, ocean temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An empirical orthogonal function analysis indicated a phase-locked pattern among DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nitrogen budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis the DIN input is largely balanced by the removal through denitrification (an equivalent of ~ 80% of DIN input) and offshore exports to the deep ocean (an equivalent of ~ 17% of DIN input).

The continental shelf ocean circulation is driven by a combination of local and deep ocean forcing, where the local forcing is by surface momentum and buoyancy (heat and fresh water) fluxes and by land-derived fresh water fluxes, and the deep ocean forcing is by momentum and buoyancy fluxes transmitted across the shelf break. While all continental shelves share the same response physics, their geometries, river distributions, and boundary currents make their individual behaviors unique. Here we consider the responses of the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) to external forcing on time scales ranging from the passage of synoptic scale weather systems to interannual anomalies. Our approach is to combine measurements made over several years with applied numerical model experiments, and we describe several features of the time and space varying circulation that may have relevance to the ecological workings of the WFS. These include the role of the bottom Ekman layer in transporting cold, nutrient-rich waters of deep-ocean origin to the nearshore; seasonal reversals of the inner shelf currents; seasonal reversals of the outer-shelf currents that can occur independent of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current to provide a WFS pathway for Mississippi River water in spring and summer; the formation of a spring cold tongue and the associated Green River phenomenon; and ventilations by deep-ocean water that may occur interannually.

Ocean circulation models are widely used to simulate organism transport in the open sea, where challenges of directly tracking organisms across vast spatial and temporal scales are daunting. Many recent studies tout the use of ‘high-resolution’ models, which are forced with atmospheric data on the scale of several hours and integrated with a time step of several minutes or seconds. However, in many cases, the model's outputs that are used to simulate organism movement have been averaged to considerably coarser resolutions (e.g. monthly mean velocity fields). To examine the sensitivity of tracking results to ocean circulation model output resolution, we took the native model output of one of the most sophisticated ocean circulation models available, the Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, and averaged it to commonly implemented spatial and temporal resolutions in studies of basin-scale dispersal. Comparisons between simulated particle trajectories and in situ near-surface drifter trajectories indicated that ‘over averaging’ model output yields predictions inconsistent with observations. Further analyses focused on the dispersal of juvenile sea turtles indicate that very different inferences regarding the pelagic ecology of these animals are obtained depending on the resolution of model output. We conclude that physical processes occurring at the scale of days and tens of kilometres should be preserved in ocean circulation model output to realistically depict the movement marine organisms and the resulting ecological and evolutionary processes.

An analytical multiphase plume model, combined with time-varying flow and hydrographic fields generated by the 3-D South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico model (SABGOM) hydrodynamic model, were used as input to a Lagrangian transport model (LTRANS), to simulate transport of oil droplets dispersed at depth from the recent Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill. The plume model predicts a stratification-dominated near field, in which small oil droplets detrain from the central plume containing faster rising large oil droplets and gas bubbles and become trapped by density stratification. Simulated intrusion (trap) heights of ~ 310–370 m agree well with the midrange of Q1 conductivity-temperature-depth observations, though the simulated variation in trap height was lower than observed, presumably in part due to unresolved variability in source composition (percentage oil versus gas) and location (multiple leaks during first half of spill). Simulated droplet trajectories by the SABGOM-LTRANS modeling system showed that droplets with diameters between 10 and 50 μm formed a distinct subsurface plume, which was transported horizontally and remained in the subsurface for >1 month. In contrast, droplets with diameters ≥90 μm rose rapidly to the surface. Simulated trajectories of droplets ≤50 μ mi n diameter were found to be consistent with field observations of a southwest-tending subsurface plume in late June 2010 reported by Camilli et al. [2010]. Model results suggest that the subsurface plume looped around to the east, with potential subsurface oil transport to the northeast and southeast. Ongoing work is focusing on adding degradation processes to the model to constrain droplet dispersal.

This research is seeking to advance the fundamental understanding of eddy-wind-topography interaction dynamics, thereby improving our ability of predicting meso- and sub-mesoscale eddy variability.

[1] Concurrent MODIS sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data are used with a new technique: Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) method to produce daily, 4-km, cloud-free SST and Chl-a analyses for the South Atlantic Bight in 2003. Comparisons between SST analysis and in situ buoy temperature demonstrate the utility of DINEOF. To quantify linkages between surface wind, SST, and Chl-a variations, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to North American Regional Reanalysis winds, and cloud-free DINEOF SST and Chl-a analyses. Wind EOF modes highlight upwelling winds from June to September. While the first SST mode represents seasonal heat flux variations, the second SST mode shows a direct response to upwelling winds with an abrupt drop in SST. The top two Chl-a EOF modes show less connection with wind. More subsurface Chl-a and nutrient observations are needed to quantify its relation with surface wind.

A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast the 2005 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine and investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom's initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multi-nested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in-situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: 1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; 2) strong northeaster storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and 3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Results suggested that the high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. Wind forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.

An extensive Alexandrium fundyense bloom occurred along the coast of the Gulf of Maine in late spring and early summer, 2005. To understand the physical aspects of bloom's initiation and development, in-situ observations from both a gulf-wide ship survey and the coastal observing network were used to characterize coastal circulation and hydrography during that time period. Comparisons between these in-situ observations and their respective long term means revealed anomalous ocean conditions during May 2005: waters were warmer and fresher gulf-wide due to more surface heating and river runoff; coastal currents were at least two times stronger than their climatological means. Surface winds were also anomalous in the form of both episodic burst of northeaster storms and downwelling favorable mean condition. These factors may have favored more vigorous along-shore transport and near shore aggregation of toxic A. fundyense cells (a red tide) in 2005.

A better understanding of oil droplet formation, degradation, and dispersal in deep waters is needed to enhance prediction of the fate and transport of subsurface oil spills. This research evaluates the influence of initial droplet size and rates of biodegradation on the subsurface transport of oil droplets, specifically those from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. A three-dimensional coupled model was employed with components that included analytical multiphase plume, hydrodynamic and Lagrangian models. Oil droplet biodegradation was simulated based on first order decay rates of alkanes. The initial diameter of droplets (10–300 μm) spanned a range of sizes expected from dispersant-treated oil. Results indicate that model predictions are sensitive to biodegradation processes, with depth distributions deepening by hundreds of meters, horizontal distributions decreasing by hundreds to thousands of kilometers, and mass decreasing by 92–99% when biodegradation is applied compared to simulations without biodegradation. In addition, there are two- to four-fold changes in the area of the seafloor contacted by oil droplets among scenarios with different biodegradation rates. The spatial distributions of hydrocarbons predicted by the model with biodegradation are similar to those observed in the sediment and water column, although the model predicts hydrocarbons to the northeast and east of the well where no observations were made. This study indicates that improvement in knowledge of droplet sizes and biodegradation processes is important for accurate prediction of subsurface oil spills., National Science Foundation (U.S.) (RAPID: Deepwater Horizon Grant OCE-1048630), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (RAPID: Deepwater Horizon Grant OCE-1044573), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (RAPID: Deepwater Horizon Grant CBET-1045831), Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative

[1] A high-resolution hybrid data assimilative (DA) modeling system is used to study barotropic tides and tidal dynamics on the southeast New England shelf. In situ observations include tidal harmonics of 5 major tidal constituents [M2, S2, N2, O1, and K1] analyzed from coastal sea level and bottom pressure gauges. The DA system consists of both forward and inverse models. The former is the three-dimensional, finite difference, nonlinear Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The latter is a three-dimensional linearized, frequency domain, finite element model TRUXTON. The DA system assimilates in situ observations via the inversion for the barotropic tidal open boundary conditions (OBCs). Model skill is evaluated by comparing the misfits between the observed and modeled tidal harmonics. The assimilation scheme is found effective and efficient in correcting the tidal OBCs, which in turn improve ROMS tidal solutions. Up to 50% decreases of model/data misfits are achieved after inverse data assimilation. Co-amplitude and co-phase maps and tidal current ellipses for each of 5 tidal constituents are generated, revealing complex tidal variability in this transition region between the tidally amplified Gulf of Maine in the northeast and the tidally much less energetic Middle Atlantic Bight in the southwest. Detailed examinations on the residual circulation, energetics, and momentum balances of the M2 tide reveal the key roles of the unique bottom bathymetry of Nantucket Shoals and the complex coastal geometry in affecting the regional tidal dynamics.

[1] A data assimilative model hindcast of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) coastal circulation during an 11 day field survey in early summer 2003 is presented. In situ observations include surface winds, coastal sea levels, and shelf hydrography as well as moored and shipboard acoustic Doppler D current profiler (ADCP) currents. The hindcast system consists of both forward and inverse models. The forward model is a three-dimensional, nonlinear finite element ocean circulation model, and the inverse models are its linearized frequency domain and time domain counterparts. The model hindcast assimilates both coastal sea levels and ADCP current measurements via the inversion for the unknown sea level open boundary conditions. Model skill is evaluated by the divergence of the observed and modeled drifter trajectories. A mean drifter divergence rate (1.78 km d � 1 ) is found, demonstrating the utility of the inverse data assimilation modeling system in the coastal ocean setting. Model hindcast also reveals complicated hydrodynamic structures and synoptic variability in the GOM coastal circulation and their influences on coastal water material property transport. The complex bottom bathymetric setting offshore of Penobscot and Casco bays is shown to be able to generate local upwelling and downwelling that may be important in local plankton dynamics.

Surface currents (0.5 m) were measured during an eleven-day deployment of a pair of CODAR Ocean Sensors 25 MHz SeaSonde/spl trade/ HF-Radars. The radar footprint overlooked of an array of acoustic Doppler current profilers on the West Florida Shelf (WSF) located between the 10 m to 30 m isobaths. An earlier study compared the hourly-averaged HF-Radar current vectors at grid points near the ADCP moorings, and found correlation coefficients (R) of 0.8 to 0.9 for the alongshelf components but 0.6 or less for the cross-shelf components, which are small in magnitude. The study noted that the alongshelf surface currents measured by the radar are about 30% larger than those of the ADCPs measured 2 to 3 m below the surface according to standard deviations and linear regression slopes. In this study we focus on the mooring located near the center of the radar coverage and explore the near surface shear and wind forcing. A fit of the M/sub 2/ tide, which is barotropic on the WSF, to the ADCP and radar vector time series yielded current tidal ellipse parameters that are in close agreement, suggesting that the low-frequency, upper-layer shear may be real. Alongshelf wind and radar current speed (at 0.5 m) were more strongly correlated than the alongshelf wind and ADCP current at 2.5 m depth. Both the principal axis analyses and the complex vector correlations indicate directional differences of 6/spl deg/ to 12/spl deg/ counterclockwise rotation (looking down) for currents with respect to wind, i.e., to the left of the wind, which is attributed primarily to the location of the coastal wind station.