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Some empirical studies show that natural resources and physical capital are likely to be complements in the production process rather than substitutes. What is more, the assumption of substitutability in many theoretical papers leads to some counterfactual conclusions. This paper proposes a simple model of economic growth with complementarity between these two factors of production via energy production. We consider the equilibrium state of this model and derive the conditions necessary to maintain balanced growth of all macroeconomic variables. We also analyze the time to depletion of natural resources when these resources are the main energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prospects for long-term sustainability depend on whether, and how much, we can absolutely decouple economic output from total energy and material throughput. While relative decoupling has occurred – that is, resource use has grown less quickly than the economy – absolute decoupling has not, raising the question whether it is possible. This paper proposes a novel explanation for why decoupling has not happened historically, drawing on a recent theory of cost-share induced productivity change and an extension of post-Keynesian pricing theory to natural resources. Cost-share induced productivity change and pricing behavior set up two halves of a dynamic, which we explore from a post-Keynesian perspective. In this dynamic, resource costs as a share of GDP move toward a stable level, at which the growth rate of resource productivity is typically less than the growth rate of GDP. This provides a parsimonious explanation of the prevalence of relative over absolute decoupling. The paper then presents some illustrative applications of the theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the optimal carbon tax in an economy in which climate change, stemming from polluting non-renewable resource, affects the economy’s growth potential. Our main contribution is to introduce and explore the natural time lag of the climate system between emissions and damages to capital accumulation in an endogenous growth setting. This allows us to investigate how optimal climate policy, and its interplay with climate dynamics, affect long-run growth and the transition of the economy towards it. Without pollution decay, a higher speed of emissions diffusion steepens the growth profile of the economy. With pollution decay, this leads to lower short-run but higher long-run economic growth during transition. Poor understanding of the emissions diffusion process leads to suboptimal carbon taxes, resource extraction and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem transformation and climate change evolve over long time scales. The effects of the economic decisions on the natural environment are also of a long-run character because they relate to investment decisions and capital stocks. At the same time, the economy is short-sighted and subject to different kinds of market failures. The time it takes to notice the changes and adequately address the associated problems affects the dynamics and inertia of the process. We discuss some recent contributions and new research questions that deal with time and timing in environmental and resource economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of oil governance on the extraction path of non-renewable resources is theoretically ambiguous. By employing field-level data in the South East Asia region, we utilize a change in the institutional design of oil governance in Indonesia to determine its impact on oil and gas extraction paths. From the empirical results, we infer that the move to create a separate regulatory agency and make the national oil company a purely business entity led to a reduction in the extraction path of oil, the size of which varies for different sizes of resource stock. This finding reiterates the importance of strengthening ownership rights for non-renewable resources to avoid over-extraction and facilitate more sustainable economic outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal has fueled China's rapid growth in recent decades, but it also severely pollutes the air and causes many health issues. The magnitude of the health damage caused by air pollution depends on the location of emission sources. In this paper, we look into the spatial distribution of coal-fired power plants, which are the major emission sources in China, and investigate the determining factors behind the distribution. We find that the driving factors are economic development and expansion of electricity grid coverage; the latter factor plays a key role in provinces that are less developed but have abundant coal resources. This suggests a way to reduce health damages caused by air pollution without harming the economy: attracting coal-fired plants to less populated areas by developing trans-province electricity trade and grid coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an equilibrium model where final-goods production uses labor and energy, and energy production uses non-polluting Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and polluting fossil fuels. Our goal is to compare two alternative Green Tax Reforms (GTRs). In one of the GTRs, carbon tax revenues are used to support Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) activities. In the other GTR, tax revenues are used to subsidize RES. The comparison between the two GTRs is focused on three indicators: output per worker, energy intensity and the ratio of renewables over non-renewables. Results show that, in theory, the GTR with the RES subsidy could benefit both the economy and the environment if resource substitution was strong enough. The GTR with CCS support necessarily decreases output since abatement only partially alleviates the tax burden. The empirical simulation indicates that, for most tax values, both GTRs imply an economic slowdown but benefit the environment. The GTR with RES subsidies appears to be preferable than the alternative one, especially for lower tax levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, economists have endeavored to determine whether a sudden surge in mineral and energy extraction activity poses an albatross or boon to an economy. The “Dutch disease” version of the resource curse originates in a traditional model postulating that extensive mineral and energy production induces inter-sectoral adjustments among traded and non-traded industries and that these adjustments tend to crowd out traditional export industries such as manufacturing. This can be acutely detrimental to the long-run growth of an economy when the traditional industries produce positive learning by doing externalities. This chain of events is so frequently cited as being evident in resource-based economies that it has become stylized wisdom. This paper reviews whether modern theoretical models and empirical evidence actually support the Dutch disease. Overall, we find that the Dutch disease is by no means theoretically predicted or empirically evident within resource-based economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines alternative hypotheses of beta convergence for different measures of energy efficiency. We collect a novel set of prefecture-level data that substantially extend the breadth of the datasets ever used in this literature. GMM estimators are then used to empirically test the national and club convergence of energy efficiency among these prefectures. We find strong evidence for prefecture-level national and club convergence in energy efficiency. In particular, the listed key environmental protection (KEP) prefectures, prefectures in central and western regions and prefectures not listed as resource-based (RB) converge faster than the non-KEP prefectures, prefectures in eastern region and RB prefectures. Sensitivity analyses suggest that these results are robust to alternative measures of energy efficiency and GMM specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the first panel‐data evidence of a human health externality from the air pollution generated by surface coal mining. In West Virginia, a standard deviation increase in a county's exposure to surface coal mining is associated with 9.85 more asthma hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in a given quarter. Interpreted causally, this suggests over $11 million in hospitalization costs over the 6‐year study period. The study builds on earlier cross‐sectional research by controlling for unobserved county‐level heterogeneity, and by defining more accurate measures of exposure. Both methods are shown to reduce the bias associated with earlier estimates of coal mining's effect on health. Young and elderly women demonstrate the largest sensitivities to surface mining. Falsification tests reveal that neither hernias nor bone fractures demonstrate any relationship with surface mining activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider two models of economic growth with exhaustible natural resources and agents heterogeneous in their time preferences. In the first model, we assume private ownership of natural resources and show that every competitive equilibrium converges to a balanced-growth equilibrium with the long-run rate of growth being determined by the discount factor of the most patient agents. In the second model, natural resources are public property and the resource extraction rate is determined by majority voting. For this model, we define an intertemporal voting equilibrium and prove that it also converges to a balanced-growth equilibrium. In this scenario, the long-run rate of growth is determined by the median discount factor. Our results suggest that if the most patient agents do not constitute a majority of the population, private ownership of natural resources results in a higher rate of growth than public ownership. At the same time, private ownership leads to higher inequality than public ownership, and if inequality impedes growth, then the public property regime is likely to result in a higher long-run rate of growth. However, an appropriate redistributive policy can eliminate the negative impact of inequality on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil-abundant countries, Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries try to improve democratic institutions and to manage their chronically big governments, while experiencing decreased world oil prices. These countries pursue open door policies. Most of the foreign revenues of the region stem from oil and gas exports. Thus, how to manage the production and exports of fossil resources is of great importance. This study aims to analyse the effects of quality of democracy, government size, and the degree of openness in explaining depletion of reserves between 1985 and 2015. After testing for panel unit root and co-integration, a panel data model was estimated considering random effects. The results indicate that democratisation and political stability causes higher depletion of oil. In addition, government size affects depletion in a non-linear form, so that oil production is maximised, when government expenditure accounts for nearly 14% of GDP, on average. Furthermore, trade openness positively impacts on the oil depletion. In this case study, higher oil depletion follows strengthening democratic foundations, resizing the public sector, expanding politico-economic ties with trade partners, and applying the modern technology in the upstream oil industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of discovering oil on the performance of a small open economy, in this case the Falkland Islands. Using an event study approach and the return on one of the Falkland Islands’ main companies, the results suggest that the discovery of oil has mostly had a positive effect on this company, which serves as a proxy for the Falkland Islands economy. In addition, using an EGARCH approach, there is evidence that the discovery of oil has reduced the volatility or risk of the company and therefore potentially the economy as a whole. However, when the oil price is added to the model, this tends to dominate the effect of the discovery.

Interdisciplinary scholars and policy makers have claimed that increasing material productivity not only reduces environmental pressures but also improves the competitiveness of economies. This is particularly relevant in the context of the European Union (EU) since it motivates its resource efficiency and circular economy agenda by referring to this assertion. However, two limitations in the literature cast doubt on the validity of the claim. First, the literature fails to clarify the concept and measurement of macroeconomic competitiveness. Second, it lacks to take the endogeneity of material productivity into account. Addressing both shortcomings, this paper reviews the concept of macroeconomic competitiveness and identifies six conventional macroeconomic indicators to approximate it. Moreover, using panel data of the 28 member states of the EU between 2000 and 2014, the causal impact of material productivity on the six indicators is estimated, instrumenting material productivity with the number of deaths from natural hazards. The results provide evidence for a positive and causal impact of the material productivity rate on the wage rate and, with lower confidence, on the current account rate, while the remaining macroeconomic indicators are not significantly affected. Overall, these results suggest to be cautious with the claim that increasing material productivity improves macroeconomic competitiveness in the EU. Particularly the positive effect on the wage rate calls for considering possibilities to channel gains from increasing material productivity into eco-innovations to reduce the magnitude of potential rebound effects and thus environmental pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a dynamic oligopolistic Cournot model of a pesticide market where resistance to pesticides can develop. We first study firms' incentives for resistance management through pricing and we distinguish two cases of demand for pesticides; one where users are able to coordinate their pesticide use and one where they are not. We show that users benefit from coordination, but that this gain is at the expense of firms facing a lower demand. When firms are allowed to obtain scientific information on the likelihood of pest resistance and, possibly, to share this information among themselves, we find that they have an incentive to acquire information and to share it with competitors. They also benefit from transmitting this information to users if the latter are coordinated. In the case of uncoordinated users, transmission of information to users is not necessarily profitable for firms if it favors their coordination. Finally, we discuss the policy implications for existing information sharing committees in the pesticide industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses whether and to what extent resource-rich developing countries should introduce local content policies, i.e. requirements to include local inputs in petroleum extraction activities of multinational corporations. We argue that local content needs to be seen as a public expenditure question, since local content requirements increase multinational costs, and hence reduce the taxes which can be extracted from these companies. This implies that there are opportunity costs in imposing local content requirements, since the forgone taxes can be used in others ways which could potentially do more to improve development prospects. Moreover, past experiences of resource-rich developing countries suggest that local content policies can exacerbate key problems of patronage and rent-seeking which resource rents generate, increasing the chance that the resource wealth will prevent rather than help development. These arguments suggest that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more limited one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. Using qualitative data from Tanzania, a country with recent discoveries of substantial natural gas deposits, we analyze why local content tends to become such a central issue in debates and policy processes, despite its potentially problematic aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyzes the dynamics of entry and adjustment that underlies the process leading to the tragedy of the commons under two scenarios, one in which the users only react ex post to the entry of other users and the other in which the users anticipate and proact to such entry. The key to our analysis is the logic of entry based on the devaluation cost, which explains (1) why entry takes place when the incumbent users are in temporary equilibrium, (2) how this equilibrium shifts sequentially with the entry of new users, (3) why such equilibria resemble either the Cournot-Nash equilibrium of a static game or the Stackelberg type equilibrium of a dynamic game depending on the reactive or the proactive nature of the users, (4) why the stocks owned by the users in the proactive case depend on the order of entry and remain unchanged once determined at the point of entry. The speed of depletion, cumulative profits of the users, and the distribution pattern of the ownership differ significantly between the two scenarios. Our theory also explains why and how duopoly and oligopoly emerge through the process of entry and adjustment and acquire different equilibrium features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses survey data from 1458 households in 60 communities from 24 districts in 5 regions of Ghana and logistic regression to examine conflicts as a contest for mineral wealth in mining communities, estimates the determinants of conflicts in these mining communities and examines how these contests could erode and/or enhance Ghana’s gains from mining. The paper finds that the likelihood of a conflict occurring in a mining area is about 56.7%. Village effect was found to be a significant positive predictor of mining conflict. Also, improvement in primary education, employment opportunities to community members of ages 25–50, the strength of institutions and the absence of small-scale miners in a mining community reduces the probability of conflicts occurring by 12.8, 35.8, 6.57 and 17.7%, respectively. While an increase in pollution levels increases the likelihood of conflicts occurring by 7.1%, primary occupation in manufacturing and services, and increase in household monthly expenditure significantly increases the likelihood of conflicts within the mining communities as the cost of living increases. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Wei (Environ Resour Econ 60:579-581, 2015) presents a novel derivation of the accounting price for an exhaustible resource in a non-optimal economy subject to an allocation mechanism. We show that Wei (2015) and Hamilton and Ruta (Environ Resour Econ 42:53-64, 2009) are in fact employing different and mutually exclusive allocation mechanisms for the economy, and this explains the differences between the respective accounting prices. Because accounting prices must be defined subject to the allocation mechanism for the economy, the prices derived in the two papers are equally valid within their respective allocation domains. Further analysis shows that if there is declining marginal product of factors, a 'Hartwick investment rule' for the model economy (set investment just equal to depletion, valued at the accounting price) will lead to declining consumption for the Wei (2015) accounting price, and increasing consumption for the Hamilton and Ruta (2009) accounting price. This result is extended to consider the accounting standards recommended in the UN SEEA (System of environmental-economic accounting 2012: central framework. United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Bank, 2012), as well as accounting for environmental externalities from resource use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. The often-large infrastructure gap in developing countries calls for public investment to unlock the long-term growth potential. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and growth variables. We apply the model to one of the resource-rich developing countries -- Mongolia. We find that, although scaling up public investment could provide a boost to growth, too rapid fiscal outlays will push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Prudent fiscal policy, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency, is essential to maintain economic stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for developing countries like Mongolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary empirical studies on the resource intensity of the economic process provide evidence of a gradual de-linking between natural resources use and economic growth. Resource intensity is evaluated through the Domestic Material Consumption/Gross Domestic Product (DMC/GDP) ratio, defined as the material intensity index. Trajectories of this ratio support the optimistic view that economic output is becoming progressively less dependent on resource flows, hence GDP is gradually dematerialized. The present study asserts that the DMC/GDP indicator fails to take into account the biophysical properties of the production process which define the resource requirements of the economy. The present study proposes the 'resources required for producing one unit of GDP per Capita (Income)', as an alternative indicator for evaluating the resource requirements of the economy. The resource requirement, evaluated at the level of income, approximates the human scale of production; goods should embody certain biophysical properties in order to satisfy human needs. The trajectories of DMC/Income index for global growth rejects the vision of a dematerialized growth and the de-linkage of the economy from natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper produces a normative evaluation of fiscal rules for a resource-rich economy. Ad hoc fiscal rules might imply substantial welfare costs; the goal is to analyze the magnitude of these costs by quantitatively evaluating the relative welfare sub-optimality of these rules. I posit a closed form solution for the infinite horizon consumption problem of the planner of a resource-rich economy with resource price uncertainty and precautionary saving. The model is subsequently calibrated and simulated to provide a welfare-based comparison between the fiscal rules based on the Permanent Income Hypothesis and on the ad hoc Bird-in-Hand policy. The results of the simulation indicate the presence of a positive and substantial welfare loss suffered from switching to the Bird-in-Hand rule. This result is shown to be robust under different parameterizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mining involves the discovery, extraction, and processing of non-renewable resources. The potential of mining revenues to contribute to national economic development is well known, but the allocation of mineral wealth and the concern of increasing resource scarcity have become issues of debate in the mining industry. The purpose of this study is to introduce the binomial decision tree analysis, which is a new approach to mining investment decisions. The examples used examine the impact by a policy change. Using three mining projects in the Asia-Pacific, in Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, findings about options for the investor suggest it is sometimes better to wait for a more suitable time to invest. Using such knowledge provides the potential to change the investment climate in mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

About 40 percent of US corn is now used to produce biofuels, which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation. In this paper, we use a Ricardian model with differential land quality to show that world food prices could rise by about 32 percent by 2022. About half of this increase is from the biofuel mandate and the rest is a result of demand-side effects in the form of population growth and income-induced changes in dietary preferences, from cereals to meat and dairy products. However, aggregate world carbon emissions would increase, because of significant land conversion to farming and leakage from lower oil prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land taxes can increase production in the manufacturing sector and enhance land conservation at the same time, which can lead to overall macroeconomic growth. Existing research emphasizes the non-distorting properties of land taxes (when fixed factors are taxed) as well as growth-enhancing impacts (when asset portfolios are shifted to reproducible capital). This paper furthers the neoclassical perspective on land taxes by endogenizing land allocation decisions in a multi-sector growth model. Based on von Thünen's observation, agricultural land is created from wilderness through conversion and cultivation, both of which are associated with costs. In the steady state of our general equilibrium model, land taxes not only may reduce land consumption (associated with environmental benefits) but may also affect overall economic output, while leaving wages and interest rates unaffected. When labor productivity is higher in the manufacturing than in the agricultural sector and agricultural and manufactured goods are substitutes (or the economy is open to world trade), land taxes increase aggregate economic output. There is a complex interplay of conservation policy, technological change and land taxes, depending on consumer preferences, sectoral labor productivities and openness-to-trade. Our model introduces a new perspective on land taxes in current policy debates on development, tax reforms as well as forest conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has sustained a relatively high economic growth rate since the 1980s compared to other developed countries. Per capita CO2 emissions tend to be highest amongst OECD countries, creating new challenges to cut back emissions towards international standards. This research explores the long-run dynamics of CO2 emissions, economic and population growth along with the effects of globalization tested as contributing factors. We find economic growth is not emission-intensive in Australia, while energy consumption is emissions intensive. Second, in an environment of increasing population, our findings suggest Australia needs to be energy efficient at the household level, creating appropriate infrastructure for sustainable population growth. High population growth and open migration policy can be detrimental in reducing CO2 emissions. Finally, we establish globalized environment has been conducive in combating emissions. In this respect, we establish the beneficial effect of economic globalization compared to social and political dimensions of globalization in curbing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Interaction between environmental degradation and economic growth is a growing matter of interest among policymakers. Here we have estimated Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for 139 Indian cities considering SO 2 emissions. Study has been done for 2001–2013, and the data have been segregated by residential and industrial areas, and as well as low, medium, and high income areas. By virtue of different forms of EKC being found, policy level decisions have been designed. Moreover, non-rejection of EKC hypothesis reemphasized the impact of growth catalyzing economic policy decisions on environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]