Search

This paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic simulation model for Canada. We use the model to generate three very different stories about the future of the Canadian economy, covering the half century from 2017 to 2067: a Base Case Scenario in which current trends and relationships are projected into the future, a Carbon Reduction Scenario in which measures are introduced specifically designed to reduce Canada's carbon emissions, and a Sustainable Prosperity Scenario which incorporates additional measures to improve environmental, social and financial conditions across society. The performance of the economy is tracked using two composite indicators constructed especially for this study: an environmental burden index (EBI) which describes the environmental performance of the model; and a composite sustainable prosperity index (SPI) which is based on a weighted average of seven economic, social and environmental performance indicators. Contrary to the widely accepted view, the results suggest that ‘green growth’ (in the Carbon Reduction Scenario) may be slower than ‘brown growth’. More importantly, we show (in the Sustainable Prosperity Scenario) that improved environmental and social outcomes are possible even as the growth rate declines to zero.

Canada is the only country to have ratified the Kyoto protocol and then withdrawn. Part of the justification for Canada's reluctance to commit to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions is the country's status as fossil fuel exporter. In this paper we use input–output analysis and the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) to ask whether Canada's contribution to global GHG emissions changes when calculated using a demand-based shadow emission approach that excludes GHG emissions created in the production of exports like fossil fuels, but includes emissions released to produce imports to Canada. We find that from 1995 to 2005 Canada's contribution to global emissions was lower using this demand-based GHG accounting approach than a production-based approach. From 2006 to 2009 however, increased imports from GHG-intensive trading partners like China meant that Canada's demand-based shadow emissions were higher than its production-based GHG emissions. We also introduce a method of calculating sub-national GHG shadows using limited data. Applied to Canada this exercise demonstrates that fossil fuel exporting provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan have demand-based shadow emissions significantly lower than their production-based emissions, while populous provinces such as Quebec and Ontario have demand-based emissions that are relatively higher than their production-based emissions.

This paper explores the hypothesis (most notably made by French economist Thomas Piketty) that slow growth rates lead to rising inequality. If true, this hypothesis would pose serious challenges to achieving ‘prosperity without growth’ or meeting the ambitions of those who call for an intentional slowing down of growth on ecological grounds. It would also create problems of social justice in the context of a ‘secular stagnation’. The paper describes a closed, demand-driven, stock-flow consistent model of Savings, Inequality and Growth in a Macroeconomic framework (SIGMA) with exogenous growth and savings rates. SIGMA is used to examine the evolution of inequality in the context of declining economic growth. Contrary to the general hypothesis, we find that inequality does not necessarily increase as growth slows down. In fact, there are certain conditions under which inequality can be reduced significantly, or even eliminated entirely, as growth declines. The paper discusses the implications of this finding for questions of employment, government fiscal policy and the politics of de-growth.

This paper addresses the question of whether a capitalist economy can ever sustain a ‘stationary’ (or non-growing) state, or whether, as often claimed, capitalism has an inherent ‘growth imperative’ arising from the charging of interest on debt. We outline the development of a dedicated system dynamics macro-economic model for describing Financial Assets and Liabilities in a Stock-Flow consistent Framework (FALSTAFF) and use this model to explore the potential for stationary state outcomes in an economy with balanced trade, credit creation by banks, and private equity. Contrary to claims in the literature, we find that neither credit creation nor the charging of interest on debt creates a ‘growth imperative’ in and of themselves. This finding remains true even when capital adequacy and liquidity requirements are imposed on banks. We test the robustness of our results in the face of random variations and one-off shocks. We show further that it is possible to move from a growth path towards a stationary state without either crashing the economy or dismantling the system. Nonetheless, there remain several good reasons to support the reform of the monetary system. Our model also supports critiques of austerity and underlines the value of countercyclical spending by government.

Current controversies in valuing the cost of environmental changes like climate change and biodiversity loss have exposed serious flaws in standard welfare economics. Many of these arise from the assumption that social value can be calculated using the revealed or stated preferences of self-regarding, narrowly rational individuals ( Parks and Gowdy, 2013, p. 1 ). In recent decades, markets and market-oriented thinking have reached into spheres of life traditionally governed by nonmarket norms ( Sandel, 2012 ).

Journal of Medical Internet Research / Medical Informatics 6(3), e39 (2018). doi:10.2196/medinform.9394, Published by Toronto

Critical Issues in Science, Technology and Society Studies : Conference Proceedings of the 17th STS Conference Graz 2018, 7th - 8th May 2018 Critical Issues in Science, Technology and Society Studies, STS Conference, Graz, Austria, 7 May 2018 - 8 May 2018; Graz : Publisher of Graz University of Technology 58-67 (2018). doi:10.18154/RWTH-2018-227252, Published by Publisher of Graz University of Technology, Graz

BACKGROUND Increasingly, eHealth involves health data visualizations to enable users to better understand their health situation. Selecting efficient and ergonomic visualizations requires knowledge about the task that the user wants to carry out and the type of data to be displayed. Taxonomies of abstract tasks and data types bundle this knowledge in a general manner. Task-data taxonomies exist for visualization tasks and data. They also exist for eHealth tasks. However, there is currently no joint task taxonomy available for health data visualizations incorporating the perspective of the prospective users. One of the most prominent prospective user groups of eHealth are older adults, but their perspective is rarely considered when constructing tasks lists. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to construct a task-data taxonomy for health data visualizations based on the opinion of older adults as prospective users of eHealth systems. eHealth experts served as a control group against the bias of lacking background knowledge. The resulting taxonomy would then be used as an orientation in system requirement analysis and empirical evaluation and to facilitate a common understanding and language in eHealth data visualization. METHODS Answers from 98 participants (51 older adults and 47 eHealth experts) given in an online survey were quantitatively analyzed, compared between groups, and synthesized into a task-data taxonomy for health data visualizations. RESULTS Consultation, diagnosis, mentoring, and monitoring were confirmed as relevant abstract tasks in eHealth. Experts and older adults disagreed on the importance of mentoring (χ24=14.1, P=.002) and monitoring (χ24=22.1, P CONCLUSIONS We empirically developed a task-data taxonomy for health data visualizations with prospective users. This provides a general framework for theoretical concession and for the prioritization of user-centered system design and evaluation. At the same time, the functionality dimension of the taxonomy for telemedicine—chosen as the basis for the construction of present taxonomy—was confirmed.

This speech was delivered at the meeting of the International Society for Ecological Economics at Reykjiavik, Iceland on the 13th of August 2014 at the presentation of the 2014 Kenneth E. Boulding Memorial Award. In the speech Peter Victor pays tribute to Kenneth Boulding, one of the pioneers of ecological economics, and then describes his own principal contributions to ecological economics over a period of 45 years. These contributions include environmental applications of input–output analysis, the problematic extension of the concept of capital to nature, the definition and analysis of green growth, and his research on ecological macroeconomics and the challenge to economic growth.

In this introductory chapter we, the editors, provide an overview of the Handbook on Growth and Sustainability. We begin by clarifying the purpose of this handbook: to contribute to the debate over whether economic growth is compatible with sustainability, and, if it is not, to recommend what can be done to achieve sustainability. We then outline the logic of the handbook structure. The handbook contains 22 chapters (not including ours) divided into five parts. In the first part, entitled ‘What is growth? What is sustainability’, contributors clarify terms and explore some of the history of the growth and sustainability debate. In the second part, ‘Can growth be sustainable?’, contributors present a range of perspectives on this important question. Some contributors answer yes, some answer no, and some say we focus too much on this question and should adopt an agnostic perspective. The third part, ‘Is the end of growth nigh? Sustainability constraints on growth’, features contributors writing about the serious issues that threaten to constrain growth. These include issues such as energy scarcity, food system environmental impacts, and uncertain technological development. Contributors in Part IV, ‘Are there imperatives for growth?’, outline the difficulty of moving away from a growth-based economic system. Growth promises to alleviate unemployment and inequality. Our contributors explore whether these can be alleviated without growth. Our debt-based monetary system appears to depend on growth. Contributors explore whether debt-based money creates a monetary imperative for growth. In the final part, ‘Is it possible to move beyond growth culture?’, our contributors ask what it would take for us to move away from a growth-based economic system. How would employment change? How would culture change? Would we make more of the products we use? Is it possible for humanity to plot a new course, or are we hamstrung by our biological inheritance and incapable of changing quickly enough to avoid calamity? We hope that in the end, whether you read the book in sequence, following the line of argument we set out in this introductory chapter, or use this introduction to select which chapters to read first, the handbook will challenge and clarify your thinking on the growth and sustainability debate.

Journal of Medical Internet Research : JMIR / Serious Games 5(2), e7 (2017). doi:10.2196/games.7197, Published by Toronto

Introduction The reliable identification, by emergency physicians, of those with intentional self-poisoning at risk of repeating attempts is crucial, particularly in countries with a shortfall of mental health professionals. Methods This cross-sectional study of intentional self-poisoning in India compared an emergency physician’s assessment for the need for psychiatric referral, using the modified SAD PERSONS Scale (MSPS) as an interview guide, with a standard psychiatric interview. Results In 67 consecutive adults with intentional self-poisoning, MSPS cut-off scores of 5 or more best approximated psychiatric assessments for the need for psychiatric referral (positive likelihood ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8–10.2; negative likelihood ratio 0.5, 95% CI 0.3–0.8). Conclusions MSPS-guided emergency physicians’ assessments after self-poisoning showed modest concordance with psychiatric assessments of suicide-risk. Concordance with psychiatric assessments may improve if risk factors prevalent in different settings are identified and incorporated in the MSPS.

This paper explores the concept of productivity in post-growth economies. It defines the ‘productivity trap’ that arises from the systematic pursuit of labour productivity and describes two solutions to this trap, each of which has some precedence in economic theory. The first is to reduce working hours – the most frequently cited avenue to combat unemployment in non-growing economies. The second is to engage in structural shifts towards low productivity growth sectors. Using a simple simulation model of the UK economy we illustrate how these two strategies might combine to achieve ‘deep’ carbon emission reduction targets while maintaining high employment.

The 'sub-prime' meltdown has accelerated critiques of the economic modelling that underpinned the activities of banking and allied industries. Coincidentally, there has been resurgence in interest in more socialised interpretations of economic life. In this article we seek to show how it may still be possible to marry formal economic modelling with these more socialised concerns. We argue that, at a time when many economists are anticipating slower growth rates in the future, such a possibility need not be disastrous. Indeed, it could result in genuine gains in terms of sustainability and a more just and stable society. Overall, then, we outline proposals for a different long-run economic trajectory and conclude with brief comments on the suggestion that Britain can validly overcome current deficits by copying the actions of the Liberal Government of Canada during the 1990s.

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines "green" growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, "brown" growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and "black" growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain.

Scale (gross domestic product), composition (goods and services), and technology (impacts per unit of goods and services) in combination are the proximate determinants in an economy of the resources used, wastes generated, and land transformed. In this article, we examine relationships among these determinants to understand better the contribution that changes in each have made in the past, and might in the future, to reduce the burden placed on the environment by the economy. Using the IPAT equation we assess quantitatively historical changes in scale, composition, and technology in Canada and their respective contributions to changes in environmental impact. The Kaya equation provides a similar framework for a more in-depth consideration of the changes in scale, composition, and technology required to achieve a substantial reduction in global emissions of carbon dioxide. We conclude that it is essential to address scale as part of the solution.

There are three main arguments why developed countries should consider managing without growth: 1) continued economic growth worldwide is not an option owing to environmental and resource constraints, and so developed countries should leave room for growth in developing countries where the benefits of growth are evident; 2) in developed countries growth has become uneconomic in the sense that it detracts more from well-being than it adds; and 3) economic growth in developed countries is neither necessary nor sufficient for meeting specific policy objectives such as full employment, no poverty and protection of the environment. This paper explores various growth scenarios for Canada over the medium range to 2020 using LOWGROW, a dynamic simulation model. After describing LOWGROW, a scenario is presented that shows conditions under which the rate of unemployment in Canada could be reduced to historically low levels, poverty eliminated and greenhouse gas emissions reduced to comply with Canada's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, without relying on economic growth. This is not to say that zero growth should itself become a policy objective. Rather that the dependence on and defence of economic growth should not be an obstacle to fulfilling more specific welfare enhancing objectives of full employment, eliminating poverty, and protecting the environment. The paper concludes with some policy implications for managing without growth followed by an annex which provides a technical description of LOWGROW.

In July 2013, a remarkable conference took place in a meeting hall of the French National Assembly in Paris. Current and former government ministers from France, Sweden, Greece, Spain, and Brazil, under the aegis of the president of France, Francois Hollande, met to explore nothing less than modern economic heresy: the abandonment of governments’ longstanding commitment to continuous economic growth—and its replacement, at least in the view of some attendees, with goals focusing on well-being, equality, and environmental health.

The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations…