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This paper investigates how accountability pressures under No Child Left Behind (NCLB) may affect children's rate of overweight. Schools facing increased pressures to produce academic outcomes may reallocate their efforts in ways that have unintended consequences for children's health. For example, schools may cut back on recess and physical education in favor of increasing time on tested subjects. To examine the impact of school accountability programs, we create a unique panel data set of schools in Arkansas that allows us to test the impact of NCLB rules on students' weight outcomes. Our main approach is to consider schools to be facing increased pressures if they are on the margin of passing - that is, if any subgroup at the school has a passing rate that is close to the AYP passing threshold, where we define close as being 5 percentage points above or below the threshold. We find evidence of small effects of accountability pressures on the percent of students at a school that are overweight. A follow-up survey of school principals points to reductions in physical activity and worsening of the food environment as potential mechanisms.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of attending school on body weight and obesity using a regression-discontinuity design. As is the case with academic outcomes, school exposure is related to unobserved determinants of weight outcomes because some families choose to have their child start school late (or early). If one does not account for this endogeneity, it appears that an additional year of school exposure results in a greater BMI and a higher probability of being overweight or obese. When we compare the weight outcomes of similar age children with one versus two years of school exposure due to regulations on school starting age, the significant positive effects disappear, and most point estimates become negative, but insignificant. However, additional school exposure appears to improve weight outcomes of children for whom the transition to elementary school represents a more dramatic change in environment (those who spent less time in childcare prior to kindergarten).

Standard models of dynamic labor demand rely on the presence of adjustment costs to explain the observed smoothness in employment patterns, although the costs are often difficult to quantify. The experience rating feature of the U. S. Unemployment Insurance (UI) system provides a measurable linear cost of adjustment. Using a unique data set with administrative data on over 8000 firms, I estimate the effect of a UI-induced linear adjustment cost on seasonal labor demand in retail trade. I find strong support for the large role of adjustment costs in reducing the employment response of firms to seasonal fluctuations in demand.

Pollen, plant-macrofossil, macroscopic-charcoal, and geochemical analyses of a sediment core from Wien Lake provide new information on the late Quaternary environmental history of central Alaska. Shrub tundra dominated by Betula glandulosa occupied the area 12 000 – 10 500 BP. Low plant cover and intensive soil erosion of the tundra landscape are indicated by low pollen-accumulation rates, high sediment inorganic content, and high allogenic elemental concentrations. Around 10 500 BP, Populus and Salix invaded the shrub tundra and open ground to form dense stands within the lake catchment. The marked increases in sediment organic content and authigenic concentrations of Fe, Mn, and Al during the period of Populus–Salix dominance suggest humic buildup and stabilization of the catchment soils. These soil changes in turn may have contributed to the demise of Populus–Salix communities 9500 BP. Fossil seeds indicate that Betula papyrifera arrived 9500 BP, rather than in the middle to late Holocene as suggested by previous palynological studies. Picea glauca codominated open woodlands with B. papyrifera 9500 – 7500 BP. The decline of Picea glauca 7500 BP was probably due to an episode of climatic cooling rather than autogenic processes resulting in waterlogged soils. Alnus arrived in the region 7500 BP. After 6500 BP, modern boreal forest dynamics are indicated by the dominance of Picea mariana, fluctuations of Picea glauca, and frequent occurrence of local fires. Key words: late Quaternary paleoecology, Alaska, vegetation and soil history, pollen, plant-macrofossils, geochemistry.

Sediment cores from three lakes in the Upper Kolyma region, northeast Russia, provide the first well-dated continuous record of late Quaternary vegetation change from far southwestern Beringia. The oldest pollen zone, tentatively assigned to the Karginsk (mid-Wisconsinan) Interstade, indicates an Artemisia shrub tundra with Pinus pumila, Betula, and Alnus at mid- to low elevations. With the onset of the Sartan (late Wisconsinan) Stade, Pinus disappeared, probably indicating severely cold, dry winters and cool summers. As conditions deteriorated further, an Artemisia -Gramineae tundra developed. Selaginella rupestris and minor herb taxa indicate the presence of poor soils and disturbed ground. This herb tundra was replaced by a short-lived (< 1000 yr) Betula-Alnus shrub tundra followed by the rapid establishment of a Larix dahurica forest with a Betula exilis-ericales-lichen understory. Populus suaveolens and Chosenia may have formed limited hardwood gallery forests at this time. Modern vegetation associations probably developed during the early Holocene with the arrival of Pinus pumila ca. 9000 yr B.P. This shrub became important in the forest understory and, with B. exilis, formed a belt of shrub tundra beyond altitudinal treeline. Comparison of the Upper Kolyma and Alaskan pollen records indicates that important differences in vegetation types and timing of vegetation change occurred across Beringia during the late Quaternary.

The authors survey unemployment insurance in the United States and provide new evidence on the unemployment insurance payroll tax. Most unemployment insurance receipt is due to firms that pay part of the unemployment insurance costs of their layoffs, but weak experience rating leads most firms to pay considerably less than the full costs. Industries consistently receiving subsidies from the unemployment insurance system are construction, manufacturing, and mining. Finally, a large fraction of layoffs resulting in payment of unemployment insurance are made by firms that are not charged for the costs of the claim because they have employed the individual for less than two quarters. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.

Unemployment insurance (UI) in the U.S. is financed through a payroll tax that is imperfectly experience rated, and thus only partially reflects a firm's use of the system. As a result, certain firms and industries receive many more dollars in unemployment benefits than they pay in taxes. We document that the same patterns of large interindustry subsidies have persisted for over 30 years, and we find that these subsidies are due mostly to differences in layoff rates across industries. Agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and particularly construction receive subsidies, while trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and services consistently pay more in taxes than they receive. Additionally, using previously unexamined firm level data, we document a persistent pattern of interfirm subsidies across several years. Together, these results indicate that UI benefit payments are predictable, thus weakening arguments for incomplete experience rating that focus on its insurance value to firms faced with large lay...

Questions have arisen as to whether the school environment is currently a contributing factor to the increase in childhood obesity, and whether changes in school policies could help curb the increase. In this chapter, we discuss key aspects of the literature on the role of the school food environment, and the role of the school activity environment in effecting the caloric intake and expenditure of children. We also simulate the effect of a range of reasonable changes in weekly minutes spent being active in school, and changes in weekly calories consumed in school.

Tephra deposits at Whitefish Lake and Cape Espenberg on the northernmost Seward Peninsula of western Alaska were derived from the Aniakchak Caldera on the Alaska Peninsula more than 1500 km to the south. Radiocarbon dates on the climactic, caldera-forming Aniakchak eruption and on proximal and distal tephra indicate the Aniakchak tephra was deposited about 3435 ± 40 BP (3614-3815 cal. BP), and forms an isochronous marker horizon across much of western Alaska. The Aniakchak tephra eruption and several other targe eruptions during the seventeenth century BC may have had widespread effects on climate.

A simple search model that includes the possibility of recall provides predictions as to the changing effects of recall expectations, a bonus offer, and job counseling on new job finding rates over time. Using data from the New Jersey Unemployment Insurance Reemployment Demonstration Project, the author finds evidence for an initial positive effect of the bonus offer, which diminishes over time. New job-finding rates are found to be negatively affected by higher initial recall expectations. This effect also diminishes over time and evidence suggests that job counseling is successful in speeding up this process. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

Paleoclimatic variations in a particular region can be viewed as the outcome of the superimposition of the effects of a number of large-scale controls. A framework for understanding paleoclimatic variations in a region can be established by considering the long-term history of those controls jointly with climatic modeling results that illustrate how regional climates respond to changes of individual controls. The relevant controls of Late-Quaternary paleoclimatic variations in eastern Beringia include: (1) the size of the ice sheet, which influences both atmospheric circulation and temperature, (2) insolation, which influences mainly temperature and seasonality, (3) carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, which influences temperature, and (4) feedbacks involving sea ice, sea-surface temperatures and snow cover, which reinforce the insolation effects. We review the results of a number of ‘paleoclimatic experiments’ with general circulation models to illustrate the potential response of eastern Beringia to the variations of these controls. We then present a framework for understanding paleoclimatic variations in eastern Beringia by describing the likely responses of the climate of this region to the known variations in the controls. In addition, we discuss key times during the Quaternary when particular combinations of the controls give rise to ‘natural experiments’ which lend themselves to the testing of particular hypotheses. Our understanding of the nature of climatic variations at high latitudes should increase through examination of paleoclimatic evidence that documents the response of the region at those key times.

Pollen analysis of a 14,000-yr-old sediment core from Sithylemenkat Lake provides the first Holocene vegetational history for the Kanuti Flats of north-central Alaska. Basal samples contain a curious and unusual combination of tundra and boreal taxa. Pollen assemblages dating from 13,500 to 9000 yr B.P. are more typical of southern Brooks Range sites and indicate the presence ofBetulashrub tundra with increasedPopulusca. 10,000 to 9000 yr B.P.Picea glaucaappeared ca. 9000 yr B.P. andAlnusca. 8000 yr B.P.P. glaucapopulations declined between 7800 and 5000 yr B.P. with a subsequent reforestation byP. marianaandP. glauca. This pattern is seen at other sites in northeastern Alaska and suggests that the Holocene history of boreal forest is more complex than thought previously.

Obesity has been one of the fastest growing health concerns among children, particularly among disadvantaged children. For children overall, obesity rates have tripled from 5% in the early 1970s to about 15% by the early 2000s. For disadvantaged children, obesity rates are closer to 20%. In this paper, we first examine the impact of various measures of disadvantage on children's weight outcomes over the past 30 years, finding that the disadvantaged have gained weight faster. Over the same period, adult obesity rates have grown, and we expect parental obesity to be closely tied to children's obesity, for reasons of both nature and nurture. Thus, examining changes in the parent-child correlation in BMI should give us some insight into the ways in which the environment that parents and children share has affected children's body mass, or into how the interaction of genes and environment has changed. We find that the elasticity between mothers' and children's BMI has increased since the 1970s, suggesting that shared genetic-environmental factors have become more important in determining obesity. Despite the faster weight gain for the disadvantaged, there appears to be no clear difference for by disadvantaged group in either the parent-child elasticity or in identifiable environmental factors. On average, the increases in parents' BMI between the early 1970s and the early 2000s can explain about 37 percent of the increase in children's BMI. Although common environmental/genetic factors play a larger role now than in earlier time periods, child specific environments such as schools and day care play a potentially important role in determining children's health status.

Obesity has been one of the fastest growing health concerns among children, particularly among disadvantaged children. For children overall, obesity rates have tripled from 5% in the early 1970s to about 15% by the early 2000s. For disadvantaged children, obesity rates are closer to 20%. In this paper, we first examine the impact of various measures of disadvantage on children's weight outcomes over the past 30 years, finding that the disadvantaged have gained weight faster. Over the same period, adult obesity rates have grown, and we expect parental obesity to be closely tied to children's obesity, for reasons of both nature and nurture. Thus, examining changes in the parent-child correlation in BMI should give us some insight into the ways in which the environment that parents and children share has affected children's body mass, or into how the interaction of genes and environment has changed. We find that the elasticity between mothers' and children's BMI has increased since the 1970s, suggesting that shared genetic-environmental factors have become more important in determining obesity. Despite the faster weight gain for the disadvantaged, there appears to be no clear difference for by disadvantaged group in either the parent-child elasticity or in identifiable environmental factors. On average, the increases in parents' BMI between the early 1970s and the early 2000s can explain about 37 percent of the increase in children's BMI. Although common environmental/genetic factors play a larger role now than in earlier time periods, child specific environments such as schools and day care play a potentially important role in determining children's health status.

Over the last two decades the proportion of adolescents in the United States who are obese has nearly tripled, and schools, citing financial pressures, have given students greater access to “junk” foods, using the proceeds to fund school programs. We examine whether schools under financial pressure tend to adopt potentially unhealthful food policies and whether students’ Body Mass Index (BMI) is higher where they are more likely to be exposed to these food policies. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in potential exposure to junk food in schools leads to about a 1 percent increase in students’ BMI.

The proportion of adolescents in the United States who are obese has nearly tripled over the last two decades. At the same time, schools, often citing financial pressures, have given students greater access to "junk" foods, using proceeds from the sales to fund school programs. We examine whether schools under financial pressure are more likely to adopt potentially unhealthful food policies. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the probability of access to junk food leads to about a one percent increase in students' body mass index (BMI). However, this average effect is entirely driven by adolescents who have an overweight parent, for whom the effect of such food policies is much larger (2.2%). This suggests that those adolescents who have a genetic or family susceptibility to obesity are most affected by the school food environment. A rough calculation suggests that the increase in availability of junk foods in schools can account for about one-fifth of the increase in average BMI among adolescents over the last decade.

Dating lake sediments by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C analysis of terrestrial plant macrofossils overcomes one of the main problems associated with dating bulk sediment samples, i.e., the presence of old organic matter. Even so, many AMS dates from arctic and boreal sites appear to misrepresent the age of the sediment. To understand the nature of these apparent dating anomalies better, we conducted a series of 14C dating experiments using samples from Alaskan and Siberian lake-sediment cores. First, to test whether our analytical procedures introduced a sample-mass bias, we obtained 14C dates for different-sized pieces of single woody macrofossils. In these sample-mass experiments, statistically equivalent ages were found for samples as small as 0.05 mg C. Secondly, to assess whether macrofossil type influenced dating results, we conducted sample-type experiments in which 14C dates were obtained for different macrofossil types sieved from the same depth in the sediment. We dated materials from multiple levels in sediment cores from Upper Capsule Lake (North Slope, northern Alaska) and Grizzly Lake (Copper River Basin, southern Alaska) and from single depths in other records from northern Alaska. In several of the experiments there were significant discrepancies between dates for different plant tissues, and in most cases wood and charcoal were older than other macrofossil types, usually by several hundred years. This pattern suggests that 14C dates for woody macrofossils may misrepresent the age of the sediment by centuries, perhaps because of their longer terrestrial residence time and the potential in-built age of longlived plants. This study identifies why some 14C dates appear to be inconsistent with the overall age-depth trend of a lake-sediment record, and it may guide the selection of 14C samples in future studies.

The proportion of adolescents in the United States who are obese has nearly tripled over the last two decades. At the same time, schools, often citing financial pressures, have given students greater access to “junk” foods and soda pop, using proceeds from these sales to fund school programs. We examine whether schools under financial pressure are more likely to adopt potentially unhealthful food policies. Next, we examine whether students’ Body Mass Index (BMI) is higher in counties where a greater proportion of schools are predicted to allow these food policies. Because the financial pressure variables that predict school food policies are unlikely to affect BMI directly, this two step estimation strategy addresses the potential endogeneity of school food policies. ; We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of schools in a county that allow students access to junk food leads to about a one percent increase in students’ BMI, on average. However, this average effect is entirely driven by adolescents who have an overweight parent, for whom the effect of such food policies is much larger (2.2%). This suggests that those adolescents who have a genetic or family susceptibility to obesity are most affected by the school food environment. A rough calculation suggests that the increase in availability of junk foods in schools can account for about one-fifth of the increase in average BMI among adolescents over the last decade.

We examine the distributional consequences of the UI payroll tax using representative individual microdata. We calculate taxes paid by individual wage and individual and household income deciles, incorporating the effects of multiple job holding and turnover. This tax distribution is compared with the distribution of UI benefits and benefits net of taxes, as well as to the burdens imposed by the federal income tax. We conclude that the UI payroll tax is indeed quite regressive. Within the context of the regular UI program, this regressivity is offset by the progressive nature of benefits, leaving the net benefit distribution progressive. We simulate a revenue-neutral increase to the OASDI level of the taxable wage base. The share of total UI taxes paid becomes fairly equal, and net benefits become positive across more deciles. Finally, we examine the effect of providing family leave within the UI system as recently proposed. We find that the share of such benefits going to relatively high-income groups is likely to be much larger than is the case for regular UI benefits. Work on this project was partially funded by a grant from the Employment Policies Institute. We thank Dick Toikka and participants at the June 2001 “America’s Workforce Network Research Conference” in Washington, DC for useful comments.

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55°N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (∼200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (∼200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Obesity rates in the U.S. have skyrocketed in the last 30 years. Among adults, obesity rates more than doubled from the early 1970s to the late 1990s. Children obesity rates nearly tripled over the same period. This article discusses why obesity is of interest from an economic perspective. It them examines changes in children's lives, particularly the increase in maternal employment, that may have contributed to increases in children's weight.

Publisher Summary This chapter describes the geographic patterns of vegetation change for 14,000–9,000 14 C yr B.P. and focuses on individual taxa changes for the remainder of the Holocene. High-quality radiocarbon chronologies are fundamental for describing environmental histories and for comparing these histories with paleoclimate models. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating permits the use of extremely low-organic content samples, thereby reducing the reliance on bulk sediment dates. Palynological data, though the key source of paleoenvironmental information in Alaska, are limited in scope, and multiproxy approaches are quickly becoming the scientific standard in Alaskan research. The distribution, physiognomic characteristics, and physiological status of arctoboreal vegetation and the complexity of northern landscapes play important roles in determining energy, water, and carbon budgets at northern high latitudes; changes in any of these budgets can have significant impacts on the seasonal and annual climatology of much of the Northern Hemisphere. The parallel development of ecological models that address climate effects on processes directly modifying plant competition, dispersal, and disturbance regime provide opportunities for investigating transient, as opposed to equilibrium, responses of vegetation to climate change.

This paper investigates whether children are more or less likely to be overweight if their mothers work. The prevalence of both overweight children and working mothers has risen dramatically over the past few decades, although these parallel trends may be coincidental. The goal of this paper is to help determine whether a causal relationship exists between maternal employment and childhood overweight. To accomplish this, we mainly utilize matched mother/child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and employ three main econometric techniques, probit models, sibling difference models, and instrumental variables models in this analysis. Our results indicate that a child is more likely to be overweight if his/her mother worked more intensively (in the form of greater hours per week) over the child's life. This effect is particularly evident for children of white mothers, of mothers with more education, and of mothers with a high income level. Applying our estimates to the trend towards greater maternal employment indicates that the increased hours worked per week among mothers between 1975 and 1999 led to about a 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point increase in overweight children, which represents a relatively small share of the overall increase.

This paper investigates whether children are more or less likely to be overweight if their mothers work. The prevalence of both overweight children and working mothers has risen dramatically over the past few decades, although these parallel trends may be coincidental. The goal of this paper is to help determine whether a causal relationship exists between maternal employment and childhood overweight. To accomplish this, we mainly utilize matched mother/child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and employ three main econometric techniques, probit models, sibling difference models, and instrumental variables models in this analysis. Our results indicate that a child is more likely to be overweight if his/her mother worked more intensively (in the form of greater hours per week) over the child's life. This effect is particularly evident for children of white mothers, of mothers with more education, and of mothers with a high income level. Applying our estimates to the trend towards greater maternal employment indicates that the increased hours worked per week among mothers between 1975 and 1999 led to about a 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point increase in overweight children, which represents a relatively small share of the overall increase.

The main aim of this paper is to identify and to analyze the presence of Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs) imposed on Brazilian exports by the other three Mercosur's member countries. The NTBs were identified through interviews with selected Brazilian companies from three sectors - Footwear, Frozen Chicken and Steel Products - and through 412 questionaries answered by Brazilian exporting firms. During the interviews, the main NTBs identified for each sector were: a) Footwear: labeling regulations, industrial standards and regulations, licensing and customs clearance procedures; b) Frozen Chicken: sanitary regulations, antidumping files and customs clearance procedures; c) Steel Products: safety and industrial standards and regulations, antidumping duties, discriminatory bilateral agreements and customs clearance procedures. Concerning the questionaries, a list with 16 non tariff barriers to trade divided into visible and non visible barriers were presented to the exporting firms. They were asked to identify which NTBs they faced by them when trading with the other Mercosur's member countries and what was their importance. The level of importance ranged from one (little important) to six (very important). According to the companies the NTBs that affect them most in their intra Mercosur trade are: a) Visible barriers: freight and insurance costs and expenses due to customs procedures; b) Non visible barriers: labeling regulations, customs procedures, previous inspection of products and safety and industrial standards and regulations. Once identified the main NTBs that affect Brazilian companies sales to the other three Mercosur's member countries, one can propose actions to eliminate them and increase trade among the countries. Such actions are: a) harmonization of health and sanitary regulations and quality standards and acceptance of certificates issued by government agencies or previously selected certifying companies of any member country; b) prohibition of antidumping duties in intra Mercosur trade. The dumping cases should be investigated and judged by domestic agencies dealing with antitrust and competition policies; c) adoption of uniform customs procedures for intra Mercosur trade by the four member countries.

Once the tariff barriers to trade among Mercosur countries were eliminated, government policies other than tariffs became an important trade policy instrument. The main objective of this paper is to identify the non-tariff barriers applied by the Mercosur countries to the Brazilian's footwear exports and it is organized as follows: the introduction; the second part presents the main characteristics of the footwear industry and its performance in Brazil in the recent years; the third part examines the footwear's international trade; the fourth part discusses some theoretic aspects of the non-tariff barriers (NTB) and indicates the NTB that are applied to Brazilian footwear exports to Mercosur; the last part concludes the paper.

This text examines the sectorial chambers activities as sites of discussion of the industrial policy in Brazil, in the early 90s. This study seeks to analyse the importance of the sectorial chambers as an institutional arrangement, which had the aim to promote the discussion of the governmental measures on the sectorial industrial policy. It is analysed the sectorial chambers? emergence context and the study proceeds to look into the agreements made in the scope of the chambers for five sectors. For the automobile industrial complex, it is evaluated each item of the agreements, taking into account the data on the performance of the variables object of the negotiations.

Rising female labor force participation and recent changes to the welfare system have increased the importance of child care for all women and, particularly, the less-skilled. This paper focuses on the child care decisions of women who differ by their skill level and the role that costs play in their work decision. After reviewing government child-care programs targeted at less-skilled women, we present a descriptive analysis of current utilization and child care costs. We emphasize differences across skill groups, showing that the least-skilled women both use less costly paid care and are more likely to use unpaid care. We then survey the existing evidence regarding the responsiveness of female labor supply to child care costs, reviewing both econometric studies and demonstration projects that include child care components. To investigate variation in the response to child care cost across skill levels, we implement models similar to this past literature. We conclude that while the overall elasticity of labor force participation with respect to the market price of child care is between -0.05 and -0.35, this elasticity is larger for the least skilled women and declines with skill. Throughout the paper, we reflect upon the implications of our analysis for welfare reform.

The recent experience of Washington State provides a natural setting to examine the effects of the unemployment insurance payroll tax on wages, employment, claims and denials. During the 13 year period from 1972 through 1984, all employers in Washington paid the same unemployment insurance (UI) tax rate. As a by-product of Federal legislation, Washington was forced to adopt an experience-rated system in 1985. This paper takes advantage of this incidence and the effects of experience rating. Results based on individual-level quarterly earnings are supportive of the idea that industry average tax rates are largely passed on to workers in the form of lower earnings. However, our estimates imply that a firm can shift much less of the difference between its tax rate and the industry average rate. We then analyze the effect of experience rating on employment, UI claims, and UI denials by comparing the experience of Washington State before and after the 1985 change with that of other states. Our results are generally supportive of the prediction that experience rating reduces turnover and UI claims, and increases claim denials.

This article estimates the effects of changes in pension plans and social security in the 1970s and 1980s on the steady state retirement of men. Work incentives associated with pension coverage and plan characteristics are calculated primarily from the 1969–79 Retirement History Study and the 1983 and 1989 Surveys of Consumer Finances. Simulations with a structural retirement model suggest that the long‐run effects of changes in pension plans and social security account for about a quarter of the reduction in full‐time work by men in their early sixties but cannot explain the reduction by those age 65.

In this paper we theoretically and empirically examine the common, but previously unexamined, case of a firm-varying tax which is used to finance a fringe benefit. While we use data from the experience-rated unemployment insurance (UI) system, it is important to realize that differential treatment of firms (such as special considerations for small business) under mandated benefits laws leads to costs which vary across firms and are analogous to experience-rated taxes. We present a theoretical model which highlights the importance of considering this variation in taxes or costs both within and across markets. We examine annual changes in either firm average earnings and employment or individual worker earnings at the same firm. This method removes unmeasured firm and worker characteristics, and thus avoids the omitted variable bias that has plagued past work on incidence and compensating differentials. Our results suggest that most of the market level tax is borne by the worker. However, this does not imply that there are no employment effects of the tax. Rather, we find that individual firms can only pass on a small share of the within market differences in the tax they face, leading to substantial employment reallocation across firms.

In this paper we theoretically and empirically examine the common, but previously unexamined, case of a firm-varying tax which is used to finance a fringe benefit. While we use data from the experience-rated unemployment insurance (UI) system, it is important to realize that differential treatment of firms (such as special considerations for small business) under mandated benefits laws leads to costs which vary across firms and are analogous to experience-rated taxes. We present a theoretical model which highlights the importance of considering this variation in taxes or costs both within and across markets. We examine annual changes in either firm average earnings and employment or individual worker earnings at the same firm. This method removes unmeasured firm and worker characteristics, and thus avoids the omitted variable bias that has plagued past work on incidence and compensating differentials. Our results suggest that most of the market level tax is borne by the worker. However, this does not imply that there are no employment effects of the tax. Rather, we find that individual firms can only pass on a small share of the within market differences in the tax they face, leading to substantial employment reallocation across firms.

In this paper, we estimate matching functions using disaggregate data. We find strong support for the matching approach, with most specifications implying slightly increasing returns to scale. This finding does not appear to arise from our inclusion of additional controls or from the level of disaggregation, and so we conclude that earlier findings of constant returns in the US may be due to the various approximations needed to construct an aggregate time series. We also find evidence of endogenous job competition between the employed and nonemployed, so that the estimated parameters from a matching function cannot be interpreted as structural parameters.

We examine the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) experience rating on layoffs using high quality firm and individual data. Our preferred estimates imply that incomplete experience rating is responsible for over twenty percent of temporary layoffs. The results are more mixed regarding the predictions of the alternative models of UI as a firm adjustment cost or a component of the worker compensation package. While the evidence favors the adjustment cost model, some of the predictions of each of these models are rejected by at least one of our specifications. Using our new data, we also confirm the correlation between experience rating proxies and layoffs found in past studies. However, the differences between these proxies and state average firm tax costs and the anomalous instrumental variables estimates that we find suggest that it may be inappropriate to causally interpret this correlation.

We examine the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) experience rating on layoffs using high quality firm and individual data. Our preferred estimates imply that incomplete experience rating is responsible for over twenty percent of temporary layoffs. The results are more mixed regarding the predictions of the alternative models of UI as a firm adjustment cost or a component of the worker compensation package. While the evidence favors the adjustment cost model, some of the predictions of each of these models are rejected by at least one of our specifications. Using our new data, we also confirm the correlation between experience rating proxies and layoffs found in past studies. However, the differences between these proxies and state average firm tax costs and the anomalous instrumental variables estimates that we find suggest that it may be inappropriate to causally interpret this correlation.

Despite clear theoretical predictions of UI effects on takeup there is little work on the link between program generosity and the propensity to file for benefits. Administrative data allow us to assign the potential level and duration of benefits accurately for a sample of workers separating from their employers, whether or not UI was ever actually received. We then use these values along with marginal tax rates as our main explanatory variables in logit equation estimates of the probability that a separating employee receives UI. We find a strong positive effect of the benefit level on takeup, but little effect of the potential duration of benefits. The estimates imply elasticities of the takeup rate with respect to benefits of about 0.46 to 0.78. Our estimates also show that potential claimants respond to the tax treatment of benefits. Simulations of the effects of taxing UI benefits indicate that recent tax changes can account for most of the decline in UI receipt in the 1980's. In addition, we find theoretical and empirical support for the proposition that those with short unemployment spells are less likely to file. We show that if the decision to file for UI is affected by benefit levels and the expected duration of unemployment, it will bias estimates of the effects of UI on unemployment duration.

Despite clear theoretical predictions of UI effects on takeup there is little work on the link between program generosity and the propensity to file for benefits. Administrative data allow us to assign the potential level and duration of benefits accurately for a sample of workers separating from their employers, whether or not UI was ever actually received. We then use these values along with marginal tax rates as our main explanatory variables in logit equation estimates of the probability that a separating employee receives UI. We find a strong positive effect of the benefit level on takeup, but little effect of the potential duration of benefits. The estimates imply elasticities of the takeup rate with respect to benefits of about 0.46 to 0.78. Our estimates also show that potential claimants respond to the tax treatment of benefits. Simulations of the effects of taxing UI benefits indicate that recent tax changes can account for most of the decline in UI receipt in the 1980's. In addition, we find theoretical and empirical support for the proposition that those with short unemployment spells are less likely to file. We show that if the decision to file for UI is affected by benefit levels and the expected duration of unemployment, it will bias estimates of the effects of UI on unemployment duration.

Corrigendum to: Anderson V, Spencer-Smith M, Leventer R, Coleman L, Anderson P, Williams J, Greenham M, Jacobs R. Childhood brain insult: can age at insult help us predict outcome? Brain 2009; 132: 45–56 doi:10.1093/Brain/awn293