101. Depreciations without Exports? : Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports
- Author
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Ahmed, Swarnali, Appendino, Maximiliano, and Ruta, Michele
- Subjects
GROWTH RATES ,INTERMEDIATE INPUTS ,RATE MOVEMENTS ,VALUE ADDED ,ECONOMIC GROWTH ,WORLD TRADE ,COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS ,REAL EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ,EXCHANGE RATES ,DEPRECIATION ,REAL EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE ,TRADE GROWTH ,CHANGES IN TRADE ,DEPENDENT VARIABLE ,MACROECONOMICS ,RECESSION ,EXPORT GROWTH ,IMPORT ,FINANCIAL CRISIS ,COMPETITIVENESS ,WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS ,REAL DEPRECIATIONS ,REAL DEPRECIATION ,TRADE RELATIONS ,EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS ,ABSOLUTE VALUE ,GOODS ,EXPORT SHARES ,COUNTRY FIXED EFFECT ,MACROECONOMIC MODELS ,TRADE DATA ,FINAL GOODS ,ACCESS ,TRADE POLICY ,PRICE COMPETITIVENESS ,TOTAL EXPORT ,REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES ,REAL EXCHANGE RATE ,ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ,DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ,INTERMEDIATE GOODS ,FORMAL ANALYSIS ,VALUE‐ADDED ,EXPORTERS ,REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ,BUSINESS CYCLE ,BUSINESS CYCLES ,TRADE BARRIERS ,REAL EXPORTS ,IMPORT PROTECTION ,DEFLATORS ,CONSUMER PRICE INDICES ,CURRENCY DEPRECIATION ,PRODUCTION ,TRADE INTEGRATION ,ELASTICITY ,SLOWDOWN ,INFLUENCE ,GDP PER CAPITA ,THEORY ,DEVELOPMENT POLICY ,TRADE RESTRICTIVENESS ,TRADE ,REAL EXPORT ,SUPPLY ,TRADE POLICIES ,DEMAND ,CONSUMERS ,FUTURE RESEARCH ,WTO ,BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION ,GDP ,VARIABLES ,MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ,TRADING PARTNERS ,PRICE INDICES ,EXTERNAL DEMAND ,EXCHANGE ,INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS ,USE VALUE ,VALUE ,EXPORTS ,GLOBAL TRADE ,CYCLICAL FACTORS ,ECONOMIES ,REVALUATION ,ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS ,INTERNATIONAL TRADE ,EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES ,EXCHANGE RATE ,CURRENCY ,TRADE FLOWS ,TOTAL EXPORTS ,GROSS EXPORTS ,ECONOMY ,ECONOMIC HISTORY ,REAL EXCHANGE RATES ,DUMPING ,CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS ,CREDIT ,EXPORT VOLUMES ,REAL GDP ,IMPORT CONTENT ,EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ,NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES ,DEPRECIATIONS ,FIXED EFFECTS ,MEASURES OF INTEGRATION ,MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ,FOREIGN FIRMS ,INCOME GROWTH ,INPUTS ,GLOBAL DEMAND ,KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS ,REAL EXPORT GROWTH ,FIXED EFFECT ,ECONOMIC RESEARCH ,LOCAL CURRENCY - Abstract
This paper analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries and sectors, and how the formation of global value chains has affected this relationship. The analysis uses a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, and first finds evidence that the elasticity of manufacturing export volumes to the real effective exchange rate has decreased over time. The paper then examines whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of global value chain integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves the competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final goods exports. In line with this intuition, the analysis finds evidence that the rise of participation in global value chains explains on average 40 percent of the fall in the elasticity, and that corrections of the real effective exchange rate for participation in global value chains do not present the same decreasing pattern in elasticity.
- Published
- 2015