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The green transition of the agriculture, food and land use sector is a major and highly complex task. Meeting the combined challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-system change requires for actors and agencies in the agri-food complex to rethink, redeploy, and reinvent instruments and mechanisms of governance at all scales, local to global to orchestrate far-reaching green transitions (or transformations) of its socio-technical and socio-ecological systems.Denmark has a unique potential to become an important leader within the green transition of agriculture, land use and food clusters. This demands development and implementation through disruptive innovative solutions. To bridge knowledge gaps, we have identified four major tracks and additional crosscutting aspects, which together contribute with solutions that will enable reaching the national and global 2030 and 2050 missions and goals:A: Land use and managementB: Animal-based food productionC: Plant-based food productionD: Biotechnology-based food production and alternative protein sourcesWe envision that each track will form a solid basis for the establishment of strong and dedicated partnerships, allowing researchers, organisations and companies with specific expertise, interests, and business models to focus on strengthening research, innovation and implementation within and across their fields.The proposed research and innovations within land use, land management and agricultural production systems contribute significantly both to national and international missions. However, investments in research and innovation are essential to achieve the goals in order to provide the basis for substantial reductions in GHG emissions, nitrogen and phosphor loadings to the freshwater and marine ecosystems, and pesticide use, as well as changes in land use and management supporting biodiversity.LAND USE AND MANAGEMENTAbout 60% of the Danish land is used for agricultural production. This makes Denmark one of the most intensively cultivated countries in the world. Therefore, the way we use and manage this land and the remaining 40% taken up by cities, infrastructure, forestry, and nature is important for a sustainable development of nature and society and for achieving carbon neutrality, low environmental impact and good ecological status of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems while maintaining a high production and securing jobs and economic growth. The numerous measures needed involve land distribution reforms, rewetting of organic soils, changed drainage practices, afforestation and obtaining measured impacts of different land use management strategies. It also involves developing new cropping and fertilisation systems with greater focus on biodiverse arable sys-tems and perennial crops with greater productivity and resource use supporting initiatives in other tracks.ANIMAL-BASED FOOD PRODUCTIONThe demand for animal-based products is increasing, and Denmark is in a unique position to become an inter-national frontrunner on the green transition of animal food production. The livestock sector has traditionally been playing a key-role in the supply chain from farm to fork due to increased global demand for dairy products, meat and eggs, and the green transition of the sector is part of the solution towards a green transition of Danish agriculture and land use. Animal food production is a significant contributor to GHG emissions and nutrient, ammonia, and pesticide pollution. However, the sector is simultaneously a key player supporting biodi-versity e.g., through grazing of nature areas. Thus, with the proper technological and biological innovations of the Danish livestock sector, Denmark will be able to pave the way for a sustainable livestock production. This allows for production with low CO2 output per kg product, focus on animal health and welfare, and will create jobs and continue to be a significant contributor to Danish exports, employment and economy with an end-goal of providing tasty, healthy, and nutritious animal-based foods.PLANT-BASED FOOD PRODUCTIONPlant-based food production is an important part of the solution towards a continued green transition of Danish agriculture and land use. Consumers are increasingly demanding more plant-based food products, Danish farmers are very interested in growing more food crops to meet this demand, the soil and climatic conditions for plant production are optimal in Denmark, and many start-ups and established food companies are already developing a wide range of plant-based food products. Substantial investments in research, innovation and implementation will make it possible to exploit the full growth potential of the plant-based food value chain and bring Denmark in a position to achieve a global market share of plant-based food between 1% and 3% coupled with the creation of between 9,000 and 27,000 new jobs.BIOTECHNOLOGY-BASED FOOD PRODUCTION AND ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN SOURCESTechnological development across the food sector opens for sustainable ways to produce safe, tasty and healthy food. These technologies have the potential, along with development in production of plant and animal-based food, to ease the transition towards a more sustainable food production in Denmark and internationally. Novel microorganisms and animal cell-based alternatives to animal-based food are projected to reach 10-20% of the global protein consumption by 2035. Functional food ingredients, cultures and additives are part of this value pool. However, for this to happen it demands massive investments in research and innovation within biorefining, cellular agriculture, animal-cell based production, microbial and enzymatic upgrading of current and alternative feedstocks and of inclusion of alternative ingredients from e.g., insects and blue biomasses. While research and innovation within traditional plant and animal production have a long history, novel and alternative ways to produce food are still in their early phase and typically at low technology readiness levels. However, Denmark has a large and so far, unutilized potential to become a frontrunner in this development.CROSSCUTTING ASPECTSIn addition to the four tracks, crosscutting aspects on governing the agri-food transition, life cycle assessment, digitalization, economic instruments, and resource efficient food processing are described. Reaching the 2030 and 2050 ambitions when it comes to goals for climate, biodiversity, and environment, while maintaining high productivity, jobs and economic growth constitutes a great and highly complex challenge. It demands a holistic view and involves consumer acceptance and involvement of industry, interest organisations and people from academia with diverse backgrounds. There is a need for disruptive thinking and collaboration between expertise that may not traditionally have worked together thus involving engagement of people from e.g., humanity and social sciences. Denmark has a strong tradition for developing innovative technologies and high-level research within agricultural sciences. However, we propose that Denmark should have the ambition to become a world leader in implementation too, i.e., getting from technical innovation to sustainable transformation of the agri-food system. For that to happen data-driven governance is a prerequisite, and success depends on cross-disciplinary collaboration involving work proposed in all tracks in this roadmap.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is essential for soil fertility and further represents a global carbon stock with potential to control atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Due to intense agricultural management, SOC is decreasing in many parts of the world, meaning that the soils act as CO2 sources rather than CO2 sinks, which they could have the capacity to be. Therefore, it is important to identify pertinent agricultural management practices that allow for high productivity, but at the same time allow for carbon sequestration and increase in SOC.In order to document changes in SOC, it is necessary to monitor SOC over decadal time scales, since changes occur slowly and are small as compared with existing stocks. The SOC content in Danish agricultural soils has been monitored at approx. 10-yr intervals (1986, 1997, 2009) since the first systematic national observations in 1986, where soils were sampled from a national 7 km x 7 km grid.In 2018, a new sampling campaign was conducted from the national 7 km x 7 km grid and soils were analysed for SOC to 1 m depth. The procedures applied in 2018 allowed for more precise relocation of the sampling points from 2009 as compared to precision obtained during the period from 1986-2009. Further, measurements in 2018 included assessment of soil bulk density and stone content in the upper 0-50 cm, which was not measured previously. Thus, one of the aims of the study was to evaluate how more precise point-specific information on bulk density and stone fractions affected the calculated SOC stocks across different soil types and management practices.The point-specific bulk density measured in 2018 were on average lower than the bulk densities used previously, which were retrieved from a database of texture-based soil classes. The volumetric stone fraction in the upper 0-50 cm was found to be 10%. On average, the inclusion of point-specific bulk density and stone fractions lead to approx. 5% lower SOC estimation, with equal approximmately contribution from the two variables.

Biogas er vedvarende energiproduceret ved at fordøje biomasse under anaerobe forhold. Husdyrgødning, spildevand og vådt organisk affald fra industrien og husholdningerne kan anvendes i produktionen, som så også fungerer som affaldsbehandling.Når husdyrgødning leveres til biogasproduktion, reduceres udledningen af drivhusgasser fra husdyr. Processen gør også næringsstofferne i gylle mere tilgængelige for planter. Omfanget af biogassens drivhusgas- og miljøpåvirkning afhænger af produktionskarakteristikaene, herunder navnlig de anvendte biomasseer. Desuden er faktorer som transport, procesenergiforbrug og eventuelt metanetab fra anlægget inkluderet. Kvantificeringen af biogasproduktionens drivhusgas- og miljøvirkninger udgør et vigtigt grundlag for at udforme og målrette fremtidig biogasfinansiering for at optimere de klima- og miljømæssige fordele ved produktionen. Rapporten præsenterer en analyse af biogasproduktionens virkninger baseret på husdyrgødning og forskellige relevante typer biomasse fra affaldshåndtering og landbrug. Virkningerne er beskrevet for fem model biogasanlæg med forskellige biomassesammensætninger.

Biogas er vedvarende energi, der fremstilles ved at afgasse biomasse under iltfrie forhold. Husdyrgødning, spildevand og vådt organisk affald fra industri og husholdninger kan bruges i produktionen, der samtidig fungerer som affaldsbehandling. Når husdyrgødning leveres til biogasproduktion, reduceres udledningen af drivhusgasser fra husdyrholdet. Processen gør samtidig næringsstofferne i gødningen lettere tilgængelige for planter. Klima- og miljøeffekternes størrelse afhænger af karakteristika ved produktionen, herunder især hvilke biomasser, der anvendes. Desuden indgår forhold som transport, forbrug af procesenergi og af eventuelle metanudslip fra anlægget. Kvantificering af biogasproduktionens klima- og miljøeffekter udgør et vigtigt grundlag for at kunne designe og målrette fremtidig biogasstøtte med henblik på at optimere klima- og miljøfordelene ved produktionen. Rapporten præsenterer en analyse af effekter af produktion af biogas af husdyrgødning og forskellige relevante typer biomasser fra affaldshåndtering og landbrug. Effekterne beskrives for fem modelanlæg for biogasproduktion med forskellig sammensætning af biomasser

Revideret ift version leveret den 30. september - se følgebrev for forklaringLandbrugsstyrelsen har bedt DCA om en revurdering af den generelle nitratudvaskning fra økologiske arealer, og herunder effekten ved omlægning fra konventionelt til økologisk jordbrug. Effekten af omlægning har været estimeret i flere tidligere studier, og har generelt været faldende over tid. Dette skyldes især, at der er sket stramninger på kvælstofanvendelse, jordbearbejdning og brug af efterafgrøder i det konventionelle landbrug. Senest er effekten i 2013 estimeret til 10-17 kg N/ha. I nærværende rapport tages udgangspunkt i den landbrugsmæssige arealanvendelse i 2017. Undersøgelsen bygger på modelberegninger baseret på typesædskifter for fire konventionelle og økologiske driftsgrene. Med udgangspunkt i dyrknings- og gødningspraksis for 2017 estimeres det, at den samlede effekt ved overgang fra konventionel til økologisk drift er en reduktion i nitratudvaskning på 9 til 11 kg N/ha. Frem til 2020 er der bl.a. sket en yderligere stigning i omfanget af målrettede efterafgrøder på det konventionelt dyrkede areal, og dette medvirker til at reducere forskellen med 2 til 3 kg N/ha. Det estimeret interval for reduktion i nitratudvaskning er således på 6 til 9 kg N/ha for 2020.

The authors regret that the affiliation of Johannes W.M. Pullens, Jørgen E. Olesen was missing in the original article. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Linket i højre side henviser til DCA rapporten. Dokumentet over linket er selve leveringen til ministeriet med følgebrev.I DCA-rapporten er der foretaget mindre sproglige og redaktionelle rettelser i forhold til versionen, som blev leveriet til ministeriet den 8. juli 2020. Derudover er der i kapitlet Afgasning af husdyrgødning kombineret med højere udnyttelseskrav for afgasset gødning sket en justering af beregningsgrundlaget af hensyn til overensstemmelse med seneste rådgivningsnotat på området. Ændringen påvirker ikke den kvalitative vurdering af klimaeffekten i kataloget. I Bilag 3, Klimagasser, er der desuden tilføjet et forklarende afsnit vedr. den indirekte N2O-emissionsfaktor relateret til nitratudvaskning.

Climate change is an imminent tread for agriculture since temperature and precipitation regimes will change. The future effects of climate change on the production of winter oilseed rape can only be identified by means of model simulations in which different climate scenarios are used. By running models for different climate scenarios, the aspects of the plant growth which are the most sensitive to the effects of climate change can be identified. In this study we have used the model HUME-OSR to run multiple climate scenarios over 6 sites in Europe, the climate scenarios ranged from current, +2 and +4 ̊C temperature in combination with -50%, -25%, current, +25% and +50% change in precipitation. With this analysis, we can identify the most sensitive parameters in respect to yield and hence the most vulnerable plant traits under climate change scenarios. In all scenarios, in disrespect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease/increase the allocation to leaf matter before stem elongation is the most sensitive. In all scenarios when the precipitation increases the sensitivity of the maximum specific leaf area in autumn and the developmental rate during leaf development increases. With increase in temperature, the allocation to dry matter after stem elongation is becoming less sensitive, while the partitioning for hull is becoming more sensitive. The presented study indicates that the model is the most sensitive in the period before stem elongation, so before winter starts showing that the establishment of the crop is playing a big role in the resilience of the crop and subsequent yield to different aspects and rates of climate change.

Rigtigt brugt kan efterafgrøder øge jordens frugtbarhed, højne udbytter og mindske miljø- og klimabelastningen. Men det kræver nytænkning og nye teknologier.

Linket til højre fører til rapportens download-side og pdf'en er følgebrevet sendt til Landbrugsstyrelsen med leveringen den 20. december 2019.Abstract: A new updated version of the empirical nitrate leaching model NLES is presented in this report. The NLES5 model is designed to estimate nitrate leaching from the root zone of agricultural land in Denmark. The previous version NLES4 was redesigned to better capture effects of nitrogen inputs in fertilizers, manure and biological N fixation as well as crop sequences and autumn and winter vegetation cover.NLES5 is based on measured nitrate leaching in both experimental fields and farmer fields. 2053 field observations from 1991 to 2017 were used for the calibration of the model. The model is validated using data from independent field measurements (856 observations) and by cross validation. Uncertainty analysis and scenario analysis of both nitrate leaching and marginal nitrate leaching response to increased N application is presented. The model can estimate average marginal nitrate leaching response to mineral nitrogen application, total nitrate leaching and the effects of a number of field N mitigation measures. Nitrate leaching depends on soil type, crop type and precipitation. The Marginal nitrate leaching was estimated at national scale with a mean of 17%. Linket til højre er til rapportens download side, og dokumentet er følgebrevet som blev sendt med rapporten den 20. december 2019 til Landbrugsstyrelsen.Abstract: A new updated version of the empirical nitrate leaching model NLES is presented in this report. The NLES5 model is designed to estimate nitrate leaching from the root zone of agricultural land in Denmark. The previous version NLES4 was redesigned to better capture effects of nitrogen inputs in fertilizers, manure and biological N fixation as well as crop sequences and autumn and winter vegetation cover.NLES5 is based on measured nitrate leaching in both experimental fields and farmer fields. 2053 field observations from 1991 to 2017 were used for the calibration of the model. The model is validated using data from independent field measurements (856 observations) and by cross validation. Uncertainty analysis and scenario analysis of both nitrate leaching and marginal nitrate leaching response to increased N application is presented. The model can estimate average marginal nitrate leaching response to mineral nitrogen application, total nitrate leaching and the effects of a number of field N mitigation measures. Nitrate leaching depends on soil type, crop type and precipitation. The Marginal nitrate leaching was estimated at national scale with a mean of 17%.