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We show that there exist absolute constants $\Delta > \delta > 0$ such that, for all $n \geqslant 2$, there exists a polynomial $P$ of degree $n$, with $\pm 1$ coefficients, such that $$\delta\sqrt{n} \leqslant |P(z)| \leqslant \Delta\sqrt{n}$$ for all $z\in\mathbb{C}$ with $|z|=1$. This confirms a conjecture of Littlewood from 1966., Comment: 24 pages

Young exoplanets are snapshots of the planetary evolution process. Planets that orbit stars in young associations are particularly important because the age of the planetary system is well constrained. We present the discovery of a transiting planet larger than Neptune but smaller than Saturn in the 45 Myr Tucana-Horologium young moving group. The host star is a visual binary, and our follow-up observations demonstrate that the planet orbits the G6V primary component, DS Tuc A (HD 222259A, TIC 410214986). We first identified transits using photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS; alerted as TOI 200.01). We validated the planet and improved the stellar parameters using a suite of new and archival data, including spectra from SOAR/Goodman, SALT/HRS and LCO/NRES; transit photometry from Spitzer; and deep adaptive optics imaging from Gemini/GPI. No additional stellar or planetary signals are seen in the data. We measured the planetary parameters by simultaneously modeling the photometry with a transit model and a Gaussian process to account for stellar variability. We determined that the planetary radius is $5.70\pm0.17$ Earth radii and that the orbital period is 8.1 days. The inclination angles of the host star's spin axis, the planet's orbital axis, and the visual binary's orbital axis are aligned within 15 degrees to within the uncertainties of the relevant data. DS Tuc Ab is bright enough (V=8.5) for detailed characterization using radial velocities and transmission spectroscopy., Comment: Accepted to ApJ Letters 2019 June 11

A well-known conjecture states that a random symmetric $n \times n$ matrix with entries in $\{-1,1\}$ is singular with probability $\Theta\big( n^2 2^{-n} \big)$. In this paper we prove that the probability of this event is at most $\exp\big( - \Omega( \sqrt{n} ) \big)$, improving the best known bound of $\exp\big( - \Omega( n^{1/4} \sqrt{\log n} ) \big)$, which was obtained recently by Ferber and Jain. The main new ingredient is an inverse Littlewood-Offord theorem in $\mathbb{Z}_p^n$ that applies under very mild conditions, whose statement is inspired by the method of hypergraph containers., Comment: 16 pages, plus a 10-page appendix

Introduced by Erd\H{o}s in 1950, a covering system of the integers is a finite collection of arithmetic progressions whose union is the set $\mathbb{Z}$. Many beautiful questions and conjectures about covering systems have been posed over the past several decades, but until recently little was known about their properties. Most famously, the so-called minimum modulus problem of Erd\H{o}s was resolved in 2015 by Hough, who proved that in every covering system with distinct moduli, the minimum modulus is at most $10^{16}$. In this paper we answer another question of Erd\H{o}s, asked in 1952, on the number of minimal covering systems. More precisely, we show that the number of minimal covering systems with exactly $n$ elements is \[ \exp\left( \left(\frac{4\sqrt{\tau}}{3} + o(1)\right) \frac{n^{3/2}}{(\log n)^{1/2}} \right) \] as $n \to \infty$, where \[ \tau = \sum_{t = 1}^\infty \left( \log \frac{t+1}{t} \right)^2. \] En route to this counting result, we obtain a structural description of all covering systems that are close to optimal in an appropriate sense., Comment: 33 pages, minor update

We present early time light curves of Type Ia supernovae observed in the first six sectors of TESS data. Ten of these supernovae were discovered by ASAS-SN, seven by ATLAS, six by ZTF, and one by \textit{Gaia}. For nine SNe with sufficient dynamic range ($>$3.0 mag from detection to peak), we fit power law models and search for signatures of companion stars. We find a diversity of early time light curve shapes, although most of our sources are consistent with fireball models where the flux increases $\propto t^2$. Three SN display a flatter rise with flux $\propto t$. We do not find any evidence for additional structure such as multiple power law components in the early rising light curves. For assumptions about the SN properties and the observer viewing angle, and further assuming that companion stars would be in Roche-lobe overflow, we place limits on the radii of companions for six SNe with complete coverage of the early time light curves. The upper limits are $\lesssim$\,32 R$_\odot$ for these six supernovae, $\lesssim$\,20 R$_\odot$ for five of these six, and $\lesssim$\,4 R$_\odot$ for two of these six. The small sample size does not constrain occurrence rates of single degenerate Type Ia SN progenitors, but we expect that TESS observed enough SNe in its primary mission (26 sectors) to inform this measurement. We also show that TESS is capable of detecting emission from a 1 \rsun\ companion for a Type Ia SN within 50 Mpc, and may do so after about six years., Comment: Published in ApJ. 57 pages, 42 figures

We report the discovery of the 1.008-day, ultra-short period (USP) super-Earth HD 213885b (TOI-141b) orbiting the bright ($V=7.9$) star HD 213885 (TOI-141, TIC 403224672), detected using photometry from the recently launched TESS mission. Using FEROS, HARPS and CORALIE radial-velocities, we measure a precise mass of $8.8\pm0.6$ $M_\oplus$ for this $1.74 \pm 0.05$ $R_\oplus$ exoplanet, which provides enough information to constrain its bulk composition, which is similar to Earth's but enriched in iron. The radius, mass and stellar irradiation of HD 213885b are, given our data, very similar to 55 Cancri e, making this exoplanet a good target to perform comparative exoplanetology of short period, highly irradiated super-Earths. Our precise radial-velocities reveal an additional $4.78$-day signal which we interpret as arising from a second, non-transiting planet in the system, HD 213885c (TOI-141c), whose minimum mass of $19.95\pm 1.4$ $M_\oplus$ makes it consistent with being a Neptune-mass exoplanet. The HD 213885 system is very interesting from the perspective of future atmospheric characterization, being the second brightest star to host an ultra-short period transiting super-Earth (with the brightest star being, in fact, 55 Cancri). Prospects for characterization with present and future observatories are discussed., Comment: MNRAS accepted version

A covering system is a finite collection of arithmetic progressions whose union is the set of integers. The study of covering systems with distinct moduli was initiated by Erd\H{o}s in 1950, and over the following decades numerous problems were posed regarding their properties. One particularly notorious question, due to Erd\H{o}s, asks whether there exist covering systems whose moduli are distinct and all odd. We show that if in addition one assumes the moduli are square-free, then there must be an even modulus., Comment: 17 pages

We report the discovery of TOI-172 b from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission, a massive hot Jupiter transiting a slightly evolved G-star with a 9.48-day orbital period. This is the first planet to be confirmed from analysis of only the TESS full frame images, because the host star was not chosen as a two minute cadence target. From a global analysis of the TESS photometry and follow-up observations carried out by the TESS Follow-up Observing Program Working Group, TOI-172 (TIC 29857954) is a slightly evolved star with an effective temperature of $T_{\rm eff}$ =$5645\pm50$ K, a mass of $M_{\star}$ = $1.128^{+0.065}_{-0.061}$ $M_{\odot}$, radius of $R_{\star}$ = $1.777^{+0.047}_{-0.044}$ $R_{\odot}$, a surface gravity of $\log$ $g_{\star}$ = $3.993^{+0.027}_{-0.028}$, and an age of $7.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}$ Gyr. Its planetary companion (TOI-172 b) has a radius of $R_{\rm P}$ = $0.965^{+0.032}_{-0.029}$ $R_{\rm J}$, a mass of $M_{\rm P}$ = $5.42^{+0.22}_{-0.20}$ $M_{\rm J}$, and is on an eccentric orbit ($e = 0.3806^{+0.0093}_{-0.0090}$). TOI-172 b is one of the few known massive giant planets on a highly eccentric short-period orbit. Future study of the atmosphere of this planet and its system architecture offer opportunities to understand the formation and evolution of similar systems., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, Published in AJ

Since their introduction by Erd\H{o}s in 1950, covering systems (that is, finite collections of arithmetic progressions that cover the integers) have been extensively studied, and numerous questions and conjectures have been posed regarding the existence of covering systems with various properties. In particular, Erd\H{o}s asked if the moduli can be distinct and all arbitrarily large, Erd\H{o}s and Selfridge asked if the moduli can be distinct and all odd, and Schinzel conjectured that in any covering system there exists a pair of moduli, one of which divides the other. Another beautiful conjecture, proposed by Erd\H{o}s and Graham in 1980, states that if the moduli are distinct elements of the interval $[n,Cn]$, and $n$ is sufficiently large, then the density of integers uncovered by the union is bounded below by a constant (depending only on $C$). This conjecture was confirmed (in a strong form) by Filaseta, Ford, Konyagin, Pomerance and Yu in 2007, who moreover asked whether the same conclusion holds if the moduli are distinct and sufficiently large, and $\sum_{i=1}^k \frac{1}{d_i} < C$. Although this condition turns out not to be sufficiently strong to imply the desired conclusion, as the main result of this paper we will give an essentially best possible condition which is sufficient. Our method has a number of further applications. Most importantly, we prove the conjecture of Schinzel stated above, which was made in 1967. We moreover give an alternative (somewhat simpler) proof of a breakthrough result of Hough, who resolved Erd\H{o}s' minimum modulus problem, with an improved bound on the smallest difference. Finally, we make further progress on the problem of Erd\H{o}s and Selfridge., Comment: 30 pages

We count orientations of $G(n,p)$ avoiding certain classes of oriented graphs. In particular, we study $T_r(n,p)$, the number of orientations of the binomial random graph $G(n,p)$ in which every copy of $K_r$ is transitive, and $S_r(n,p)$, the number of orientations of $G(n,p)$ containing no strongly connected copy of $K_r$. We give the correct order of growth of $\log T_r(n,p)$ and $\log S_r(n,p)$ up to polylogarithmic factors; for orientations with no cyclic triangle, this significantly improves a result of Allen, Kohayakawa, Mota and Parente. We also discuss the problem for a single forbidden oriented graph, and state a number of open problems and conjectures., Comment: 16 pages + Appendix, 1 figure; minor changes

We report the first confirmation of a hot Jupiter discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission: HD 202772A b. The transit signal was detected in the data from TESS Sector 1, and was confirmed to be of planetary origin through radial-velocity measurements. HD 202772A b is orbiting a mildly evolved star with a period of 3.3 days. With an apparent magnitude of V = 8.3, the star is among the brightest known to host a hot Jupiter. Based on the 27days of TESS photometry, and radial velocity data from the CHIRON and HARPS spectrographs, the planet has a mass of 1.008+/-0.074 M_J and radius of 1.562+/-0.053 R_J , making it an inflated gas giant. HD 202772A b is a rare example of a transiting hot Jupiter around a quickly evolving star. It is also one of the most strongly irradiated hot Jupiters currently known., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journal

In the $r$-neighbour bootstrap process on a graph $G$, vertices are infected (in each time step) if they have at least $r$ already-infected neighbours. Motivated by its close connections to models from statistical physics, such as the Ising model of ferromagnetism, and kinetically constrained spin models of the liquid-glass transition, the most extensively-studied case is the two-neighbour bootstrap process on the two-dimensional grid $[n]^2$. Around 15 years ago, in a major breakthrough, Holroyd determined the sharp threshold for percolation in this model, and his bounds were subsequently sharpened further by Gravner and Holroyd, and by Gravner, Holroyd and Morris. In this paper we strengthen the lower bound of Gravner, Holroyd and Morris by proving that the critical probability $p_c\big( [n]^2,2 \big)$ for percolation in the two-neighbour model on $[n]^2$ satisfies \[p_c\big( [n]^2,2 \big) = \frac{\pi^2}{18\log n} - \frac{\Theta(1)}{(\log n)^{3/2}}\,.\] The proof of this result requires a very precise understanding of the typical growth of a critical droplet, and involves a number of technical innovations. We expect these to have other applications, for example, to the study of more general two-dimensional cellular automata, and to the $r$-neighbour process in higher dimensions., Comment: 53 pages, 6 figures, 1 appendix

The method of hypergraph containers, introduced recently by Balogh, Morris, and Samotij, and independently by Saxton and Thomason, has proved to be an extremely useful tool in the study of various monotone graph properties. In particular, a fairly straightforward application of this technique allows one to locate, for each non-bipartite graph $H$, the threshold at which the distribution of edges in a typical $H$-free graph with a given number of edges undergoes a transition from 'random-like' to 'structured'. On the other hand, for non-monotone hereditary graph properties the standard version of this method does not allow one to establish even the existence of such a threshold. In this paper we introduce a refinement of the container method that takes into account the asymmetry between edges and non-edges in a sparse member of a hereditary graph property. As an application, we determine the approximate structure of a typical graph with $n$ vertices, $m$ edges, and no induced copy of the $4$-cycle, for each function $m = m(n)$ satisfying $n^{4/3} (\log n)^4 \leqslant m \ll n^2$. We show that almost all such graphs $G$ have the following property: the vertex set of $G$ can be partitioned into an 'almost-independent' set (a set with $o(m)$ edges) and an 'almost-clique' (a set inducing a subgraph with density $1-o(1)$). The lower bound on $m$ is optimal up to a polylogarithmic factor, as standard arguments show that if $n \ll m \ll n^{4/3}$, then almost all such graphs are 'random-like'. As a further consequence, we deduce that the random graph $G(n,p)$ conditioned to contain no induced $4$-cycles undergoes phase transitions at $p = n^{-2/3 + o(1)}$ and $p = n^{-1/3 + o(1)}$., Comment: 52 pages

In this survey we describe a recently-developed technique for bounding the number (and controlling the typical structure) of finite objects with forbidden substructures. This technique exploits a subtle clustering phenomenon exhibited by the independent sets of uniform hypergraphs whose edges are sufficiently evenly distributed; more precisely, it provides a relatively small family of 'containers' for the independent sets, each of which contains few edges. We attempt to convey to the reader a general high-level overview of the method, focusing on a small number of illustrative applications in areas such as extremal graph theory, Ramsey theory, additive combinatorics, and discrete geometry, and avoiding technical details as much as possible., Comment: 29 pages

Kinetically constrained models (KCM) are reversible interacting particle systems on $\mathbb Z^d$ with continuous time Markov dynamics of Glauber type, which represent a natural stochastic (and non-monotone) counterpart of the family of cellular automata known as $\mathcal U$-bootstrap percolation. KCM also display some of the peculiar features of the so-called "glassy dynamics", and as such they are extensively used in the physics literature to model the liquid-glass transition, a major and longstanding open problem in condensed matter physics. We consider two-dimensional KCM with update rule $\mathcal U$, and focus on proving universality results for the mean infection time of the origin, in the same spirit as those recently established in the setting of $\mathcal U$-bootstrap percolation. We first identify what we believe are the correct universality classes, which turn out to be different from those of $\mathcal U$-bootstrap percolation. We then prove universal upper bounds on the mean infection time within each class, which we conjecture to be sharp up to logarithmic corrections. In certain cases, including all supercritical models, and the well-known Duarte model, our conjecture has recently been confirmed in [MMT]. In fact, in these cases our upper bound is sharp up to a constant factor in the exponent. For certain classes of update rules, it turns out that the infection time of the KCM diverges much faster than for the corresponding $\mathcal U$-bootstrap process when the equilibrium density of infected sites goes to zero. This is due to the occurrence of energy barriers which determine the dominant behaviour for KCM, but which do not matter for the monotone bootstrap dynamics., Comment: 55 pages

We present a short, self-contained, and purely combinatorial proof of Linnik's theorem: for any $\varepsilon > 0$ there exists a constant $C_\varepsilon$ such that for any $N$, there are at most $C_\varepsilon$ primes $p \leqslant N$ such that the least positive quadratic non-residue modulo $p$ exceeds $N^\varepsilon$., Comment: 6 pages

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive., Comment: 61 pages, 23 Figures, 9 Tables, Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series

Individuals on social media may reveal themselves to be in various states of crisis (e.g. suicide, self-harm, abuse, or eating disorders). Detecting crisis from social media text automatically and accurately can have profound consequences. However, detecting a general state of crisis without explaining why has limited applications. An explanation in this context is a coherent, concise subset of the text that rationalizes the crisis detection. We explore several methods to detect and explain crisis using a combination of neural and non-neural techniques. We evaluate these techniques on a unique data set obtained from Koko, an anonymous emotional support network available through various messaging applications. We annotate a small subset of the samples labeled with crisis with corresponding explanations. Our best technique significantly outperforms the baseline for detection and explanation., Comment: Accepted at CLPsych, ACL workshop. 8 pages, 5 figures

We study survival among two competing types in two settings: a planar growth model related to two-neighbour bootstrap percolation, and a system of urns with graph-based interactions. In the planar growth model, uncoloured sites are given a colour at rate $0$, $1$ or $\infty$, depending on whether they have zero, one, or at least two neighbours of that colour. In the urn scheme, each vertex of a graph $G$ has an associated urn containing some number of either blue or red balls (but not both). At each time step, a ball is chosen uniformly at random from all those currently present in the system, a ball of the same colour is added to each neighbouring urn, and balls in the same urn but of different colours annihilate on a one-for-one basis. We show that, for every connected graph $G$ and every initial configuration, only one colour survives almost surely. As a corollary, we deduce that in the two-type growth model on $\mathbb{Z}^2$, one of the colours only infects a finite number of sites with probability one. We also discuss generalisations to higher dimensions and multi-type processes, and list a number of open problems and conjectures., Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, minor update