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A number of alternative methods can be used to generate forecasts of electricity consumption. However, it is seldom possible to compare the accuracy of forecasts generated by different statistical methods. Hawaii provided a unique opportunity for such a comparison because of the availability of the Hawaii Energy Demand Forecasting Model (HEDFM). HEDFM is an econometric-based simulation system designed to provide detailed annual consumption forecasts for various fuel types from 1978 to the year 2005 for the State of Hawaii. This article evaluates the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasts using various commonly employed methods and compares them with forecasts from HEDFM. Traditional forecasting methods based on average historical growth rates or the historical relationships between electricity consumption and key economic and demographic variables such as de facto population and per capita income did not perform well. Quadratic exponential smoothing outperformed all other methods. HEDFM, a...

[1] Rapid changes in ground tilt and GPS positions on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, are interpreted as resulting from a shallow, two-segment dike intrusion into the east rift zone that began at 1217 UTC (0217 HST) on 17 June 2007 and lasted almost 3 days. As a result of the intrusion, a very small volume of basalt (about 1500 m3) erupted on 19 June. Northward tilt at a coastal tiltmeter, subsidence of south flank GPS sites, southeastward displacements at southwestern flank GPS sites, and a swarm of flank earthquakes suggest that a slow slip event occurred on the decollement beneath Kīlauea's south flank concurrent with the rift intrusion. We use 4 min GPS positions that include estimates of time-dependent tropospheric gradients and ground tilt data to study the spatial and temporal relationships between the two inferred shallow, steeply dipping dike segments extending from the surface to about 2 km depth and decollement slip at 8 km depth. We invert for the temporal evolution of distributed dike opening and decollement slip in independent inversions at each time step using a nonnegative least squares algorithm. On the basis of these inversions, the intrusion occurred in two stages that correspond spatially and temporally with concentrated rift zone seismicity. The dike opening began on the western of the two segments before jumping to the eastern segment, where the majority of opening accumulated. Dike opening preceded the start of decollement slip at an 84% confidence level; the latter is indicated by the onset of northward tilt of a coastal tiltmeter. Displacements at southwest flank GPS sites began about 18 h later and are interpreted as resulting from slow slip on the southwestern flank. Additional constraints on the evolution of the intrusion and decollement slip come from inversion of an Envisat interferogram that spans the intrusion until 0822 UTC on 18 June 2007, combined with GPS and tilt data. This inversion shows that up to 0822 UTC on 18 June, decollement slip is only required in a limited region offshore of Ka'ena Point. A similar inversion of the complete event, which includes GPS and tilt data up to 21 June and a second Envisat interferogram spanning the complete intrusion until 21 June, shows decollement slip spread westward across the south flank. This may suggest westward migration of the decollement slip as the event progressed.

Geometric order in quasi-two-dimensional epithelia has been extensively researched in order to identify and classify different tissues to help our understanding of how tissues form (morphogenesis) and how their formation may be influenced (tissue regeneration). However, the significance of published data —such as the distribution of numbers of cell neighbors— has been debatable because of measurement bias. We shown that such bias can be detected and corrected without detailed knowledge of the original samples, using only the biased (measured) distributions. This is true for both of the most important sources of bias: the measurement of apparent four-fold vertices and the selective preference for measuring smaller cells introduced by selecting a finite sampling window. The resulting unbiased data allows for a meaningful comparison of all available data, from different sources, taken with different experimental resolution and methodology. Conclusive evidence is found that the apparent four-fold vertices are neither distributed randomly nor oriented randomly, revealing profound differences in topological correlation between proliferating and remodeling tissues. The method is applied to measurements of Drosophila wing tissue, where it successfully disentangles distributional moments, allowing for an assessment of their relative importance, independence, and significance in tissue identification and classification.

Kilauea erupted almost continuously from January 1983 through 1991. Although the summit began subsiding during the rift zone dike intrusion that initiated this eruption, remarkably steady ground surface motions began in late 1983 after a magnitude 6.6 earthquake beneath the slopes of nearby Mauna Loa volcano and continued until the onset of brief upper east rift zone earthquake swarms in late 1990. During these 7 years the summit and upper rift zones subsided up to 10–11 and 4–8 cm yr−1, respectively, and summit baselines contracted up to 6 cm yr−1. Baselines directed northward from the summit to stations on Mauna Loa extended at rates up to 7 cm yr−1, and a baseline from south of the summit to Mauna Loa extended 4 cm yr−1. Much of this extension is inconsistent with deformation caused solely by summit magma reservoir collapse and more likely reflects rifting as the south flank of the volcano moved seaward from the summit and rift zones. Farther from the summit, baselines crossing the south flank extended up to 2 cm yr−1, and a south flank tide gauge rose 2 cm yr−1; the lower east rift zone, 40–50 km from the summit, subsided about 2 cm yr−1. Motion on Kilauea, then, is broadly consistent with slip along low-angle south flank faults, generating subsidence that is focused at the summit and along the rift system behind the faulting and uplift along the coastal south flank ahead of it. Dislocation models that combine these elements show that much of Kilauea's edifice migrated seaward, producing ground surface motions along the south flank of up to about 6 cm yr−1. The magnitude 6.1 earthquake of 1989 punctuated these motions along the eastern south flank, producing more than 25 cm of seaward displacement and, 15 km east of the epicenter, up to 24 cm of subsidence south of the lower east rift zone. Unlike the magnitude 7.2 south flank earthquake of 1975, the 1989 event was preceded neither by summit magma reservoir inflation nor by rift zone dike intrusions and accompanying compression of the south flank. Deformation was probably caused by the weight of the volcanic overburden and by ongoing dilation and slip within the rift system.

[1] A series of complex events at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, 17 June to 19 June 2007, began with an intrusion in the upper east rift zone (ERZ) and culminated with a small eruption (1500 m3). Surface deformation due to the intrusion was recorded in unprecedented detail by Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt networks as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data acquired by the ENVISAT and ALOS satellites. A joint nonlinear inversion of GPS, tilt, and InSAR data yields a deflationary source beneath the summit caldera and an ENE-striking uniform-opening dislocation with ∼2 m opening, a dip of ∼80° to the south, and extending from the surface to ∼2 km depth. This simple model reasonably fits the overall pattern of deformation but significantly misfits data near the western end of an inferred dike-like source. Three more complex dike models are tested that allow for distributed opening including (1) a dike that follows the surface trace of the active rift zone, (2) a dike that follows the symmetry axis of InSAR deformation, and (3) two en echelon dike segments beneath mapped surface cracks and newly formed steaming areas. The en echelon dike model best fits near-field GPS and tilt data. Maximum opening of 2.4 m occurred on the eastern segment beneath the eruptive vent. Although this model represents the best fit to the ERZ data, it still fails to explain data from a coastal tiltmeter and GPS sites on Kīlauea's southwestern flank. The southwest flank GPS sites and the coastal tiltmeter exhibit deformation consistent with observations of previous slow slip events beneath Kīlauea's south flank, but inconsistent with observations of previous intrusions. Slow slip events at Kīlauea and elsewhere are thought to occur in a transition zone between locked and stably sliding zones of a fault. An inversion including slip on a basal decollement improves fit to these data and suggests a maximum of ∼15 cm of seaward fault motion, comparable to previous slow-slip events.

[1] The global positioning system (GPS) is one of the most common techniques, and the current state of the art, used to monitor volcano deformation. In addition to slow (several centimeters per year) displacement rates, GPS can be used to study eruptions and intrusions that result in much larger (tens of centimeters over hours-days) displacements. It is challenging to resolve precise positions using GPS at subdaily time intervals because of error sources such as multipath and atmospheric refraction. In this paper, the impact of errors due to multipath and atmospheric refraction at subdaily periods is examined using data from the GPS network on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i. Methods for filtering position estimates to enhance precision are both simulated and tested on data collected during the June 2007 intrusion and eruption. Comparisons with tiltmeter records show that GPS instruments can precisely recover the timing of the activity.

This paper presents an alternative approach to improve the palatability of the minimum-cost diet problem through restricting the integer programming solutions to those bundles of foods that represent reasonably popular meal recipes. It is assumed that if a recipe is popular it must be palatable. The approach differs from previous studies in that it optimizes meal recipes rather than food items. A reasonable set of meals is derived from an exploratory application of this approach to a limited set of 217 popular local recipes in Hawaii. The cost of this set of ‘palatable’ minimum-cost diet is estimated to be US$80·03 for a family of four for a week. By using the same set of food items necessary for the 217 recipes, the cost of the ‘less palatable’ minimum-cost diet (as in Stigler, G. J. (1945). J. Farm Econ., 27, 303–314) is found to be US$20·39. The difference of US$59·64 can be considered as the added cost to improve the palatability of the diet.

[1] Several slow slip events beneath the south flank ofKilauea Volcano, Hawaii, have been inferred from transient displacements in daily GPS positions. To search for smaller events that may be close to the noise level in the GPS time series, we compare displacement fields on Kilauea's south flank with displacement patterns in previously identified slow slip events. Matching displacement patterns are found for several new candidate events, although displacements are much smaller than previously identified events. One of the candidates, 29 May 2000, is coincident with a microearthquake swarm, as are all of the previously identified slow slip events. The microearthquakes follow the onset of slow slip, implying that they are triggered by stress changes during slip. The new slow slip event brings the total number of events on Kilauea, between 1997 and 2007, to eight, the smallest having M w = 5.3, and the largest having M w = 6.0. While the recurrence time between the four largest events is 2.11 ± 0.01 years, the repeat time for all eight events is 0.9 ± 0.6 years. We invert for the fault geometry and distribution of slip during the slow slip events. The optimal source depths of 5 km, assuming uniform slip dislocations in an elastic half-space, are considerably shallower than the accompanying swarm earthquakes (6.5-8.5 km), which would place the earthquakes in a zone of decreased Coulomb stress. Inversions including the effects of topography and layered elastic structure in the forward models favor depths comparable to microearthquake depths, such that the earthquakes are located in a region of increased Coulomb stress. We also invert for time-dependent fault slip directly from the 30 s GPS phase observations, constraining the source to the optimal uniform slip geometry. On the basis of these inversions, the larger events last between 1.5-2.2 days. The data are unable to resolve migration of slip along the fault. The temporal pattern of accompanying microearthquakes is consistent with the fault slip history assuming a seismicity rate theory based on rate and state-friction, making the swarm earthquakes coshocks and aftershocks of the slow slip events.

We investigate the deformation of Mauna Loa and Kllauea volcanoes, Hawai'i, by exploiting the advanced differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) technique referred to as the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. In particular, we present time series of line-of-sight (LOS) displacements derived from SAR data acquired by the ASAR instrument, on board the ENVISAT satellite, from the ascending (track 93) and descending (track 429) orbits between 2003 and 2008. For each coherent pixel of the radar images we compute time-dependent surface displacements as well as the average LOS deformation rate. Our results quantify, in space and time, the complex deformation of Mauna Loa and Kllauea volcanoes. The derived InSAR measurements are compared to continuous GPS data to asses the quality of the SBAS-InSAR products.

We investigate the deformation of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes, Hawaii, by exploiting the advanced differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) technique referred to as the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. In particular, we present time series of line-of-sight (LOS) displacements derived from SAR data acquired by the ASAR instrument, on board the ENVISAT satellite, from the ascending (track 93) and descending (track 429) orbits between 2003 and 2008. For each coherent pixel of the radar images we compute time-dependent surface displacements as well as the average LOS deformation rate. Our results quantify, in space and time, the complex deformation of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. The derived InSAR measurements are compared to continuous GPS data to asses the quality of the SBAS-InSAR products.

We investigate the deformation of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes, Hawai`i, by exploiting the advanced differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) technique referred to as the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. In particular, we present time series of line-of-sight (LOS) displacements derived from SAR data acquired by the ASAR instrument, on board the ENVISAT satellite, from the ascending (track 93) and descending (track 429) orbits between 2003 and 2008. For each coherent pixel of the radar images we compute time-dependent surface displacements as well as the average LOS deformation rate. Our results quantify, in space and time, the complex deformation of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. The derived InSAR measurements are compared to continuous GPS data to asses the quality of the SBAS-InSAR products.

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake in 1975 caused the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, to move seaward in response to slippage along a deep fault. Since then, a large part of the volcano's edifice has been adjusting to this perturbation. The summit of Kilauea extended at a rate of 0.26 meter per year until 1983, the south flank uplifted more than 0.5 meter, and the axes of both the volcano's rift zones extended and subsided; the summit continues to subside. These ground-surface motions have been remarkably steady and much more widespread than those caused by either recurrent inflation and deflation of the summit magma chamber or the episodic propagation of dikes into the rift zones. Kilauea's magmatic system is, therefore, probably deeper and more extensive than previously thought; the summit and both rift zones may be underlain by a thick, near vertical dike-like magma system at a depth of 3 to 9 kilometers.

The previous theoretical studies of the timing of business exits have employed two different approaches. They have either developed sequential decision-making models or models based on gambler's ruin. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate both approaches. For this task some simple models of the exit process are developed and it is shown that both types of models are capable of generating the observed patterns of firm mortality. The reasonableness of the assumptions and the importance of key variables in the two models are tested using a case study of restaurant exits. We find that the sequential decision-making model would have to be rather complex to serve as a realistic descriptive model of the exit process. Gambler's ruin models, on the other hand, provide a realistic descriptive model not only of the environment in which a large portion of this industry operates, but of the decision process as well. Models based on gambler's ruin may, therefore, provide a potentially useful approach for modeling exit process in other industries dominated by small firms.

One of the greatest hazards associated with oceanic volcanoes is not volcanic in nature, but lies with the potential for catastrophic flank failure. Such flank failure can result in devastating tsunamis and threaten not only the immediate vicinity, but coastal cities along the entire rim of an ocean basin. Kilauea volcano on the island of Hawaii, USA, is a potential source of such flank failures and has therefore been monitored by a network of continuously recording geodetic instruments, including global positioning system (GPS) receivers, tilt meters and strain meters. Here we report that, in early November 2000, this network recorded transient southeastward displacements, which we interpret as an episode of aseismic fault slip. The duration of the event was about 36 hours, it had an equivalent moment magnitude of 5.7 and a maximum slip velocity of about 6[?]cm per day. Inversion of the GPS data reveals a shallow-dipping thrust fault at a depth of 4.5[?]km that we interpret as the down-dip extension of the Hilina Pali--Holei Pali normal fault system. This demonstrates that continuously recording geodetic networks can detect accelerating slip, potentially leading to warnings of volcanic flank collapse.

Mid-2007 was a time of intense activity at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii (see Figure 1). In June, the long-lived Pu'u 'Ō'ō—Kupaianaha eruption, a dual-vent system along the east rift zone (ERZ) that has been erupting since 1983 [Heliker et al., 2003], paused due to the outbreak of a new vent farther up the rift (see Figure 2). The Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent collapsed following that activity, and the resulting reorganization of the magma plumbing system led to the formation of a second new eruptive vent 2 kilometers downrift of Pu'u 'Ō'ō. These events were well documented by geological, geophysical, and geochemical monitoring. This article summarizes results from these monitoring efforts and interprets the changes that have occurred at Kilauea since June 2007.

Early in the morning of 1 February 2010 (UTC; early afternoon 31 January 2010 local time), continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) and tilt instruments detected a slow slip event (SSE) on the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. The SSE lasted at least 36 hours and resulted in a maximum of about 3 centimeters of seaward displacement. About 10 hours after the start of the slip, a flurry of small earthquakes began (Figure 1) in an area of the south flank recognized as having been seismically active during past SSEs [Wolfe et al., 2007], suggesting that the February earthquakes were triggered by stress associated with slip [Segall et al., 2006].