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The experimental efforts to detect the redshifted 21 cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are limited predominantly by the chromatic instrumental systematic effect. The delay spectrum methodology for 21 cm power spectrum measurements brought new attention to the critical impact of an antenna's chromaticity on the viability of making this measurement. This methodology established a straightforward relationship between time-domain response of an instrument and the power spectrum modes accessible to a 21 cm EoR experiment. We examine the performance of a prototype of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) array element that is currently observing in Karoo desert, South Africa. We present a mathematical framework to derive the beam integrated frequency response of a HERA prototype element in reception from the return loss measurements between 100-200 MHz and determined the extent of additional foreground contamination in the delay space. The measurement reveals excess spectral structures in comparison to the simulation studies of the HERA element. Combined with the HERA data analysis pipeline that incorporates inverse covariance weighting in optimal quadratic estimation of power spectrum, we find that in spite of its departure from the simulated response, HERA prototype element satisfies the necessary criteria posed by the foreground attenuation limits and potentially can measure the power spectrum at spatial modes as low as $k_{\parallel} > 0.1h$~Mpc$^{-1}$. The work highlights a straightforward method for directly measuring an instrument response and assessing its impact on 21 cm EoR power spectrum measurements for future experiments that will use reflector-type antenna., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, Submitted to APJ

We present upper limits on the 21 cm power spectrum at $z = 5.9$ calculated from the model-independent limit on the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium of $x_{\rm H{\small I }} < 0.06 + 0.05\ (1\sigma)$ derived from dark pixel statistics of quasar absorption spectra. Using 21CMMC, a Markov chain Monte Carlo Epoch of Reionization analysis code, we explore the probability distribution of 21 cm power spectra consistent with this constraint on the neutral fraction. We present 99 per cent confidence upper limits of $\Delta^2(k) < 10$ to $20\ {\rm mK}^2$ over a range of $k$ from 0.5 to $2.0\ h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, with the exact limit dependent on the sampled $k$ mode. This limit can be used as a null test for 21 cm experiments: a detection of power at $z=5.9$ in excess of this value is highly suggestive of residual foreground contamination or other systematic errors affecting the analysis., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS letters

We investigate high-redshift galaxy sizes using a semi-analytic model constructed for the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulation project. Our fiducial model, including strong feedback from supernovae and photoionization background, accurately reproduces the evolution of the stellar mass function and UV luminosity function. Using this model, we study the size--luminosity relation of galaxies and find that the effective radius scales with UV luminosity as $R_\mathrm{e}\propto L^{0.25}$ at $z{\sim}5$--$9$. We show that recently discovered very luminous galaxies at $z{\sim}7$ (Bowler et al. 2016) and $z{\sim}11$ (Oesch et al. 2016) lie on our predicted size--luminosity relations. We find that a significant fraction of galaxies at $z>8$ will not be resolved by JWST, but GMT will have the ability to resolve all galaxies in haloes above the atomic cooling limit. We show that our fiducial model successfully reproduces the redshift evolution of average galaxy sizes at $z>5$. We also explore galaxy sizes in models without supernova feedback. The no-supernova feedback models produce galaxy sizes that are smaller than observations. We therefore confirm that supernova feedback plays an important role in determining the size--luminosity relation of galaxies and its redshift evolution during reionization., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) is a staged experiment to measure 21 cm emission from the primordial intergalactic medium (IGM) throughout cosmic reionization ($z=6-12$), and to explore earlier epochs of our Cosmic Dawn ($z\sim30$). During these epochs, early stars and black holes heated and ionized the IGM, introducing fluctuations in 21 cm emission. HERA is designed to characterize the evolution of the 21 cm power spectrum to constrain the timing and morphology of reionization, the properties of the first galaxies, the evolution of large-scale structure, and the early sources of heating. The full HERA instrument will be a 350-element interferometer in South Africa consisting of 14-m parabolic dishes observing from 50 to 250 MHz. Currently, 19 dishes have been deployed on site and the next 18 are under construction. HERA has been designated as an SKA Precursor instrument. In this paper, we summarize HERA's scientific context and provide forecasts for its key science results. After reviewing the current state of the art in foreground mitigation, we use the delay-spectrum technique to motivate high-level performance requirements for the HERA instrument. Next, we present the HERA instrument design, along with the subsystem specifications that ensure that HERA meets its performance requirements. Finally, we summarize the schedule and status of the project. We conclude by suggesting that, given the realities of foreground contamination, current-generation 21 cm instruments are approaching their sensitivity limits. HERA is designed to bring both the sensitivity and the precision to deliver its primary science on the basis of proven foreground filtering techniques, while developing new subtraction techniques to unlock new capabilities. The result will be a major step toward realizing the widely recognized scientific potential of 21 cm cosmology., Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures, 2 tables

We quantify the presence of Ly\alpha\ damping wing absorption from a partially-neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) in the spectrum of the $z=7.08$ QSO, ULASJ1120+0641. Using a Bayesian framework, we simultaneously account for uncertainties in: (i) the intrinsic QSO emission spectrum; and (ii) the distribution of cosmic HI patches during the epoch of reionisation (EoR). For (i) we use a new intrinsic Ly\alpha\ emission line reconstruction method (Greig et al.), sampling a covariance matrix of emission line properties built from a large database of moderate-$z$ QSOs. For (ii), we use the Evolution of 21-cm Structure (EOS; Mesinger et al.) simulations, which span a range of physically-motivated EoR models. We find strong evidence for the presence of damping wing absorption redward of Ly\alpha\ (where there is no contamination from the Ly\alpha\ forest). Our analysis implies that the EoR is not yet complete by $z=7.1$, with the volume-weighted IGM neutral fraction constrained to $\bar{x}_{\rm H\,{\scriptsize I}} = 0.40\substack{+0.21 -0.19}$ at $1\sigma$ ($\bar{x}_{\rm H\,{\scriptsize I}} = 0.40\substack{+0.41 -0.32}$ at $2\sigma$). This result is insensitive to the EoR morphology. Our detection of significant neutral HI in the IGM at $z=7.1$ is consistent with the latest Planck 2016 measurements of the CMB Thompson scattering optical depth (Planck Collaboration XLVII)., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Accepted to MNRAS, matches online version

We introduce an intrinsic Ly\alpha\ emission line profile reconstruction method for high-$z$ quasars (QSOs). This approach utilises a covariance matrix of emission line properties obtained from a large, moderate-$z$ ($2 \leq z \leq 2.5$), high signal to noise (S/N > 15) sample of BOSS QSOs. For each QSO, we complete a Monte Carlo Markov Chain fitting of the continuum and emission line properties and perform a visual quality assessment to construct a large database of robustly fit spectra. With this dataset, we construct a covariance matrix to describe the correlations between the high ionisation emission lines Ly\alpha, C IV, Si IV + O IV] and C III], and find it to be well approximated by an $N$-dimensional Gaussian distribution. This covariance matrix characterises the correlations between the line width, peak height and velocity offset from systemic while also allowing for the existence of broad and narrow line components for Ly\alpha\ and C IV. We illustrate how this covariance matrix allows us to statistically characterise the intrinsic Ly\alpha\ line solely from the observed spectrum redward of 1275\AA. This procedure can be used to reconstruct the intrinsic Ly\alpha\ line emission profile in cases where Ly\alpha\ may otherwise be obscured. Applying this reconstruction method to our sample of QSOs, we recovered the Ly\alpha\ line flux to within 15 per cent of the measured flux at 1205\AA\ (1220\AA) ~85 (90) per cent of the time., Comment: 27 pages, 19 figures, 1 table. Accepted to MNRAS

Using Hubble data, including new grism spectra, Oesch et al. recently identified GN-z11, an $M_\textrm{UV}$=-21.1 galaxy at $z$=11.1 (just 400Myr after the big bang). With an estimated stellar mass of $\sim$10$^9$M$_{\odot}$, this galaxy is surprisingly bright and massive, raising questions as to how such an extreme object could form so early in the Universe. Using \Meraxes{}, a semi-analytic galaxy-formation model developed as part of the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) programme, we investigate the potential formation mechanisms and eventual fate of GN-z11. The volume of our simulation is comparable to that of the discovery observations and possesses two analogue galaxies of similar luminosity to this remarkably bright system. Existing in the two most massive subhaloes at $z$=11.1 ($M_\textrm{vir}$=1.4$\times 10^{11}$M$_{\odot}$ and 6.7$\times 10^{10}$M$_{\odot}$), our model analogues show excellent agreement with all available observationally derived properties of GN-z11. Although they are relatively rare outliers from the full galaxy population at high-$z$, they are no longer the most massive or brightest systems by $z$=5. Furthermore, we find that both objects possess relatively smooth, but extremely rapid mass growth histories with consistently high star formation rates and UV luminosities at $z{>}11$, indicating that their brightness is not a transient, merger-driven feature. Our model results suggest that future wide-field surveys with the \textit{James Webb Space Telescope} may be able to detect the progenitors of GN-z11 analogues out to $z{\sim}$13--14, pushing the frontiers of galaxy-formation observations to the early phases of cosmic reionization and providing a valuable glimpse of the first galaxies to reionize the Universe on large scales., Comment: Updated to match published version. Minor correction to figure 2, with no resulting changes to findings. 8 pages, 6 figures, published in MNRAS

Using a Bayesian framework, we quantify what current observations imply about the history of the epoch of reionisation (EoR). We use a popular, three-parameter EoR model, flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of physically-plausible reionisation histories. We study the impact of various EoR observations: (i) the optical depth to the CMB measured by Planck 2016; (ii) the dark fraction in the Lyman $\alpha$ and $\beta$ forests; (iii) the redshift evolution of galactic Ly$\alpha$ emission (so-called "Ly$\alpha$ fraction"); (iv) the clustering of Ly$\alpha$ emitters; (v) the IGM damping wing imprint in the spectrum of QSO ULASJ1120+0641; (vi) and the patchy kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal. Combined, (i) and (ii) already place interesting constraints on the reionisation history, with the epochs corresponding to an average neutral fraction of (75, 50, 25) per cent, constrained at 1$\sigma$ to $z= (9.21\substack{+1.22 -1.15}, 8.14\substack{+1.08 -1.00}, 7.26\substack{+1.13 -0.96})$. Folding-in more model-dependent EoR observations [(iii--vi)], strengthens these constraints by tens of per cent, at the cost of a decrease in the likelihood of the best-fit model, driven mostly by (iii). The tightest constraints come from (v). Unfortunately, no current observational set is sufficient to break degeneracies and constrain the astrophysical EoR parameters. However, model-dependent priors on the EoR parameters themselves can be used to set tight limits by excluding regions of parameter space with strong degeneracies. Motivated by recent observations of $z\sim7$ faint, lensed galaxies, we show how a conservative upper limit on the virial temperature of haloes which host reionising galaxies can constrain the escape fraction of ionising photons to $f_{\rm esc} = 0.14\substack{+0.26 -0.09}$, Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, 1 table. Accepted to MNRAS, matches online version

We introduce the Evolution of 21-cm Structure (EOS) project: providing periodic, public releases of the latest cosmological 21-cm simulations. 21-cm interferometry is set to revolutionize studies of the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and epoch of reionization (EoR), eventually resulting in 3D maps of the first billion years of our Universe. Progress will depend on sophisticated data analysis pipelines, which are in turn tested on large-scale mock observations. Here we present the 2016 EOS data release, consisting of the largest (1.6 Gpc on side with a 1024^3 grid), public 21-cm simulations of the CD and EoR. We include calibrated, sub-grid prescriptions for inhomogeneous recombinations and photo-heating suppression of star formation in small mass galaxies. We present two simulation runs that approximately bracket the contribution from faint unseen galaxies. From these two extremes, we predict that the duration of reionization (defined as a change in the mean neutral fraction from 0.9 to 0.1) should be between 2.7 < Delta z < 5.7. The large-scale 21-cm power during the advanced EoR stages can be different by up to a factor of ~10, depending on the model. This difference has a comparable contribution from: (i) the typical bias of sources; and (ii) a more efficient negative feedback in models with an extended EoR driven by faint galaxies. We also make detectability forecasts. With a 1000h integration, HERA and SKA1-low should achieve a signal-to-noise of ~few-hundreds throughout the EoR/CD, while in the maximally optimistic scenario of perfect foreground cleaning, all instruments should make a statistical detection of the cosmic signal. We also caution that our ability to clean foregrounds determines the relative performance of narrow/deep vs. wide/shallow surveys expected with SKA1. Our 21-cm power spectra, simulation outputs and visualizations are publicly available., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, MNRAS submitted; data and visualizations are available at http://homepage.sns.it/mesinger/EOS.html

Interferometry of the cosmic 21-cm signal is set to revolutionize our understanding of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR), eventually providing 3D maps of the early Universe. Initial detections however will be low signal-to-noise, limited by systematics. To confirm a putative 21-cm detection, and check the accuracy of 21-cm data analysis pipelines, it would be very useful to cross-correlate against a genuine cosmological signal. The most promising cosmological signals are wide-field maps of Lyman alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs), expected from the Subaru Hyper-Suprime Cam (HSC) Ultra-Deep field. Here we present estimates of the correlation between LAE maps at z~7 and the 21-cm signal observed by both the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) and the planned Square Kilometer Array Phase 1 (SKA1). We adopt a systematic approach, varying both: (i) the prescription of assigning LAEs to host halos; and (ii) the large-scale structure of neutral and ionized regions (i.e. EoR morphology). We find that the LAE-21cm cross-correlation is insensitive to (i), thus making it a robust probe of the EoR. A 1000h observation with LOFAR would be sufficient to discriminate at >1 standard deviation a fully ionized Universe from one with a mean neutral fraction of xHI~0.50, using the LAE-21cm cross-correlation function on scales of R~3-10 Mpc. Unlike LOFAR, whose detection of the LAE-21cm cross-correlation is limited by noise, SKA1 is mostly limited by ignorance of the EoR morphology. However, the planned 100h wide-field SKA1-Low survey will be sufficient to discriminate an ionized Universe from one with xHI~0.25, even with maximally pessimistic assumptions., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, submitted to MNRAS

We use the Dark-ages, Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) framework to investigate the effect of galaxy-formation physics on the morphology and statistics of ionized hydrogen (HII) regions during the Epoch of Reioinization (EoR). DRAGONS self-consistently couples a semi-analytic galaxy-formation model with the inhomogeneous ionizing UV background, and can therefore be used to study the dependence of morphology and statistics of reionization on feedback phenomena of the ionizing source galaxy population. Changes in galaxy-formation physics modify the sizes of HII regions and the amplitude and shape of 21-cm power spectra. Of the galaxy physics investigated, we find that supernova feedback plays the most important role in reionization, with HII regions up to $\approx 20$ per cent smaller and a fractional difference in the amplitude of power spectra of up to $\approx 17$ per cent at fixed ionized fraction in the absence of this feedback. We compare our galaxy-formation-based reionization models with past calculations that assume constant stellar-to-halo mass ratios and find that with the correct choice of minimum halo mass, such models can mimic the predicted reionization morphology. Reionization morphology at fixed neutral fraction is therefore not uniquely determined by the details of galaxy formation, but is sensitive to the mass of the haloes hosting the bulk of the ionizing sources. Simple EoR parametrizations are therefore accurate predictors of reionization statistics. However, a complete understanding of reionization using future 21-cm observations will require interpretation with realistic galaxy-formation models, in combination with other observations., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, published in MNRAS

In this paper we present calculations of the UV luminosity function from the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) project, which combines N-body, semi-analytic and semi-numerical modelling designed to study galaxy formation during the Epoch of Reionization. Using galaxy formation physics including supernova feedback, the model naturally reproduces the UV LFs for high-redshift star-forming galaxies from $z{\sim}5$ through to $z{\sim}10$. We investigate the luminosity--star formation rate (SFR) relation, finding that variable SFR histories of galaxies result in a scatter around the median relation of $0.1$--$0.3$ dex depending on UV luminosity. We find close agreement between the model and observationally derived SFR functions. We use our calculated luminosities to investigate the luminosity function below current detection limits, and the ionizing photon budget for reionization. We predict that the slope of the UV LF remains steep below current detection limits and becomes flat at $M_\mathrm{UV}{\gtrsim}{-14}$. We find that $48$ ($17$) per cent of the total UV flux at $z{\sim}6$ ($10$) has been detected above an observational limit of $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$, and that galaxies fainter than $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$ are the main source of ionizing photons for reionization. We investigate the luminosity--stellar mass relation, and find a correlation for galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{<}{-14}$ that has the form $M_*{\propto}10^{-0.47M_\mathrm{UV}}$, in good agreement with observations, but which flattens for fainter galaxies. We determine the luminosity--halo mass relation to be $M_\mathrm{vir}{\propto}10^{-0.35M_\mathrm{UV}}$, finding that galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{=}{-20}$ reside in host dark matter haloes of $10^{11.0\pm 0.1}\mathrm{M_\odot}$ at $z{\sim}6$, and that this mass decreases towards high redshift., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We introduce Meraxes, a new, purpose-built semi-analytic galaxy formation model designed for studying galaxy growth during reionization. Meraxes is the first model of its type to include a temporally and spatially coupled treatment of reionization and is built upon a custom (100 Mpc)$^3$ N-body simulation with high temporal and mass resolution, allowing us to resolve the galaxy and star formation physics relevant to early galaxy formation. Our fiducial model with supernova feedback reproduces the observed optical depth to electron scattering and evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function between $z$=5 and 7, predicting that a broad range of halo masses contribute to reionization. Using a constant escape fraction and global recombination rate, our model is unable to simultaneously match the observed ionizing emissivity at $z{\lesssim}6$. However, the use of an evolving escape fraction of 0.05-0.1 at $z{\sim}6$, increasing towards higher redshift, is able to satisfy these three constraints. We also demonstrate that photoionization suppression of low mass galaxy formation during reionization has only a small effect on the ionization history of the inter-galactic medium. This lack of `self-regulation' arises due to the already efficient quenching of star formation by supernova feedback. It is only in models with gas supply-limited star formation that reionization feedback is effective at regulating galaxy growth. We similarly find that reionization has only a small effect on the stellar mass function, with no observationally detectable imprint at $M_{\rm *}{>}10^{7.5}\,{\rm M_{{\odot}}}$. However, patchy reionization has significant effects on individual galaxy masses, with variations of factors of 2-3 at $z$=5 that correlate with environment., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures; published in MNRAS; Updated to match published version. Additional results and fitting formulae added from previous version. All other results and conclusions remain unchanged

We use high resolution N-Body simulations to study the concentration and spin parameters of dark matter haloes in the mass range $10^8\, {\rm M}_{\odot}\, h^{-1} < {\rm M} < 10^{11}\, {\rm M}_{\odot}\, h^{-1}$ and redshifts $5{<}z{<}10$, corresponding to the haloes of galaxies thought to be responsible for reionization. We build a sub-sample of equilibrium haloes and contrast their properties to the full population that also includes unrelaxed systems. Concentrations are calculated by fitting both NFW and Einasto profiles to the spherically-averaged density profiles of individual haloes. After removing haloes that are out-of-equilibrium, we find a $z{>}5$ concentration$-$mass ($c(M)$) relation that is almost flat and well described by a simple power-law for both NFW and Einasto fits. The intrinsic scatter around the mean relation is $\Delta c_{\rm{vir}}{\sim1}$ (or 20 per cent) at $z=5$. We also find that the analytic model proposed by Ludlow et al. reproduces the mass and redshift-dependence of halo concentrations. Our best-fit Einasto shape parameter, $\alpha$, depends on peak height, $\nu$, in a manner that is accurately described by $\alpha {=}0.0070\nu^2{+}0.1839$. The distribution of the spin parameter, $\lambda$, has a weak dependence on equilibrium state; $\lambda$ peaks at roughly ${\sim}0.033$ for our relaxed sample, and at ${\sim}0.04$ for the full population. The spin--virial mass relation has a mild negative correlation at high redshift.

We present the Dark-ages Reionization and Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) program and Tiamat, the collisionless N-body simulation program upon which DRAGONS is built. The primary trait distinguishing Tiamat from other large simulation programs is its density of outputs at high redshift (100 from z=35 to z=5; roughly one every 10 Myr) enabling the construction of very accurate merger trees at an epoch when galaxy formation is rapid and mergers extremely frequent. We find that the friends-of-friends halo mass function agrees well with the prediction of Watson et al. at high masses, but deviates at low masses, perhaps due to our use of a different halo finder or perhaps indicating a break from "universal" behaviour. We then analyse the dynamical evolution of galaxies during the Epoch of Reionization finding that only a small fraction (~20%) of galactic halos are relaxed. We illustrate this using standard relaxation metrics to establish two dynamical recovery time-scales: i) halos need ~1.5 dynamical times following formation, and ii) ~2 dynamical times following a major (3:1) or minor (10:1) merger to be relaxed. This is remarkably consistent across a wide mass range. Lastly, we use a phase-space halo finder to illustrate that major mergers drive long-lived massive phase-space structures which take many dynamical times to dissipate. This can yield significant differences in the inferred mass build-up of galactic halos and we suggest that care must be taken to ensure a physically meaningful match between the galaxy-formation physics of semi-analytic models and the halo finders supplying their input., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication by MNRAS

We use the Fisher matrix formalism and semi-numerical simulations to derive quantitative predictions of the constraints that power spectrum measurements on next-generation interferometers, such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) and the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), will place on the characteristics of the X-ray sources that heated the high redshift intergalactic medium. Incorporating observations between $z=5$ and $z=25$, we find that the proposed 331 element HERA and SKA phase 1 will be capable of placing $\lesssim 10\%$ constraints on the spectral properties of these first X-ray sources, even if one is unable to perform measurements within the foreground contaminated "wedge" or the FM band. When accounting for the enhancement in power spectrum amplitude from spin temperature fluctuations, we find that the observable signatures of reionization extend well beyond the peak in the power spectrum usually associated with it. We also find that lower redshift degeneracies between the signatures of heating and reionization physics lead to errors on reionization parameters that are significantly greater than previously predicted. Observations over the heating epoch are able to break these degeneracies and improve our constraints considerably. For these two reasons, 21\,cm observations during the heating epoch significantly enhance our understanding of reionization as well., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, Accepted to MNRAS

With the first phase of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) entering into its final pre-construction phase, we investigate how best to maximise its scientific return. Specifically, we focus on the statistical measurement of the 21 cm power spectrum (PS) from the epoch of reionization (EoR) using the low frequency array, SKA1-low. To facilitate this investigation we use the recently developed MCMC based EoR analysis tool 21CMMC (Greig & Mesinger). In light of the recent 50 per cent cost reduction, we consider several different SKA core baseline designs, changing: (i) the number of antenna stations; (ii) the number of dipoles per station; and also (iii) the distribution of baseline lengths. We find that a design with a reduced number of dipoles per core station (increased field of view and total number of core stations), together with shortened baselines, maximises the recovered EoR signal. With this optimal baseline design, we investigate three observing strategies, analysing the trade-off between lowering the instrumental thermal noise against increasing the field of view. SKA1-low intends to perform a three tiered observing approach, including a deep 100 deg$^{2}$ at 1000 h, a medium-deep 1000 deg$^{2}$ at 100 h and a shallow 10,000 deg$^{2}$ at 10 h survey. We find that the three observing strategies result in comparable ($\lesssim$ per cent) constraints on our EoR astrophysical parameters. This is contrary to naive predictions based purely on the total signal-to-noise, thus highlighting the need to use EoR parameter constraints as a figure of merit, in order to maximise scientific returns with next generation interferometers., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, submitted to MNRAS

We compute robust lower limits on the spin temperature, $T_{\rm S}$, of the $z=8.4$ intergalactic medium (IGM), implied by the upper limits on the 21-cm power spectrum recently measured by PAPER-64. Unlike previous studies which used a single epoch of reionization (EoR) model, our approach samples a large parameter space of EoR models: the dominant uncertainty when estimating constraints on $T_{\rm S}$. Allowing $T_{\rm S}$ to be a free parameter and marginalizing over EoR parameters in our Markov Chain Monte Carlo code 21CMMC, we infer $T_{\rm S}\ge3 {\rm K}$ (corresponding approximately to $1\sigma$) for a mean IGM neutral fraction of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}\gtrsim0.1$. We further improve on these limits by folding-in additional EoR constraints based on: (i) the dark fraction in QSO spectra, which implies a strict upper limit of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}[z=5.9]\leq 0.06+0.05 \,(1\sigma)$; and (ii) the electron scattering optical depth, $\tau_{\rm e}=0.066\pm0.016\,(1\sigma)$ measured by the Planck satellite. By restricting the allowed EoR models, these additional observations tighten the approximate $1\sigma$ lower limits on the spin temperature to $T_{\rm S} \ge 6$ K. Thus, even such preliminary 21-cm observations begin to rule out extreme scenarios such as `cold reionization', implying at least some prior heating of the IGM. The analysis framework developed here can be applied to upcoming 21-cm observations, thereby providing unique insights into the sources which heated and subsequently reionized the very early Universe., Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS (matches online version)

The Ly$\alpha$ line of high-redshift galaxies has emerged as a powerful probe of both early galaxy evolution and the epoch of reionization (EoR). Motivated by the upcoming wide-field survey with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC), we study the angular correlation function (ACF) of narrow-band selected, $z\approx7$ Ly$\alpha$ emitting galaxies (LAEs). The clustering of LAEs is determined by both: (i) their typical host halo masses, $\bar{M}_{\rm h}$; and (ii) the absorption due to a patchy EoR, characterized by an average neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium, $\bar{x}_{\rm HI}$. We bracket the allowed LAE ACFs by exploring extreme scenarios for both the intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ emission and the large-scale pattern (i.e. morphology) of cosmic ionized patches in physical EoR models. Independent of the EoR morphology, current $z\approx 7$ ACF measurements constrain $\bar{x}_{\rm HI}\lesssim 0.5$ (1-$\sigma$). We also find that the low values of the currently-observed ACF imply that LAEs are hosted by relatively small dark matter halos: $\bar{M}_{\rm h} \lesssim 10^{10} M_{\odot}$, with corresponding duty cycles of $\lesssim$ few per cent. These values are over an order of magnitude lower than the analogous ones for color-selected, Lyman break galaxies, suggesting that $z\approx 7$ narrow-band LAEs searches are preferentially selecting young, star-burst galaxies, residing in less massive halos. The upcoming Ultra Deep campaign with the HSC will significantly improve constraints on both the EoR and LAE host halos., Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, accepted by MNRAS

We present constraints on both the kinetic temperature of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at z=8.4, and on models for heating the IGM at high-redshift with X-ray emission from the first collapsed objects. These constraints are derived using a semi-analytic method to explore the new measurements of the 21 cm power spectrum from the Donald C. Backer Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER), which were presented in a companion paper, Ali et al. (2015). Twenty-one cm power spectra with amplitudes of hundreds of mK^2 can be generically produced if the kinetic temperature of the IGM is significantly below the temperature of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB); as such, the new results from PAPER place lower limits on the IGM temperature at z=8.4. Allowing for the unknown ionization state of the IGM, our measurements find the IGM temperature to be above ~5 K for neutral fractions between 10% and 85%, above ~7 K for neutral fractions between 15% and 80%, or above ~10 K for neutral fractions between 30% and 70%. We also calculate the heating of the IGM that would be provided by the observed high redshift galaxy population, and find that for most models, these galaxies are sufficient to bring the IGM temperature above our lower limits. However, there are significant ranges of parameter space that could produce a signal ruled out by the PAPER measurements; models with a steep drop-off in the star formation rate density at high redshifts or with relatively low values for the X-ray to star formation rate efficiency of high redshift galaxies are generally disfavored. The PAPER measurements are consistent with (but do not constrain) a hydrogen spin temperature above the CMB temperature, a situation which we find to be generally predicted if galaxies fainter than the current detection limits of optical/NIR surveys are included in calculations of X-ray heating., Comment: companion paper to Ali et al. (2015), ApJ 809, 61; matches version accepted to ApJ; 11 pages, 7 figures

We introduce 21CMMC: a parallelized, Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis tool, incorporating the epoch of reionization (EoR) seminumerical simulation 21CMFAST. 21CMMC estimates astrophysical parameter constraints from 21 cm EoR experiments, accommodating a variety of EoR models, as well as priors on model parameters and the reionization history. To illustrate its utility, we consider two different EoR scenarios, one with a single population of galaxies (with a mass-independent ionizing efficiency) and a second, more general model with two different, feedback-regulated populations (each with mass-dependent ionizing efficiencies). As an example, combining three observations (z=8, 9 and 10) of the 21 cm power spectrum with a conservative noise estimate and uniform model priors, we find that interferometers with specifications like the Low Frequency Array/Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA)/Square Kilometre Array 1 (SKA1) can constrain common reionization parameters: the ionizing efficiency (or similarly the escape fraction), the mean free path of ionizing photons and the log of the minimum virial temperature of star-forming haloes to within 45.3/22.0/16.7, 33.5/18.4/17.8 and 6.3/3.3/2.4 per cent, ~$1\sigma$ fractional uncertainty, respectively. Instead, if we optimistically assume that we can perfectly characterize the EoR modelling uncertainties, we can improve on these constraints by up to a factor of ~few. Similarly, the fractional uncertainty on the average neutral fraction can be constrained to within $\lesssim10$ per cent for HERA and SKA1. By studying the resulting impact on astrophysical constraints, 21CMMC can be used to optimize (i) interferometer designs; (ii) foreground cleaning algorithms; (iii) observing strategies; (iv) alternative statistics characterizing the 21 cm signal; and (v) synergies with other observational programs., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS, matches online version. 20 pages, 4 tables, 11 colour figures

The SKA will build upon early detections of the EoR by precursor instruments, such as MWA, PAPER, and LOFAR, and planned instruments, such as HERA, to make the first high signal-to-noise measurements of fluctuations in the 21 cm brightness temperature from both reionization and the cosmic dawn. This will allow both imaging and statistical maps of the 21cm signal at redshifts z = 6 - 27 and constrain the underlying cosmology and evolution of the density field. This era includes nearly 60% of the (in principle) observable volume of the Universe and many more linear modes than the CMB, presenting an opportunity for SKA to usher in a new level of precision cosmology. This optimistic picture is complicated by the need to understand and remove the effect of astrophysics, so that systematics rather than statistics will limit constraints. This chapter describes the cosmological, as opposed to astrophysical, information available to SKA. Key areas for discussion include: cosmological parameters constraints using 21cm fluctuations as a tracer of the density field; lensing of the 21cm signal, constraints on heating via exotic physics such as decaying or annihilating dark matter; impact of fundamental physics such as non-Gaussianity or warm dark matter on the source population; and constraints on the bulk flows arising from the decoupling of baryons and photons at z = 1000. The chapter explores the path to separating cosmology from astrophysics, for example via velocity space distortions and separation in redshift. We discuss new opportunities for extracting cosmology made possible by the sensitivity of SKA Phase 1 and explores the advances achievable with SKA2., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in the SKA Science Book 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', to appear in 2015

In this chapter we provide an overview of the current status of the simulations and modelling of the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization. We discuss the modelling requirements as dictated by the characteristic scales of the problem and the SKA instrumental properties and the planned survey parameters. Current simulations include most of the relevant physical processes. They can follow the full nonlinear dynamics and are now reaching the required scale and dynamic range, although small-scale physics still needs to be included at sub-grid level. However, despite a significant progress in developing novel numerical methods for efficient utilization of current hardware they remain quite computationally expensive. In response, a number of alternative approaches, particularly semi-analytical/semi-numerical methods, have been developed. While necessarily more approximate, if appropriately constructed and calibrated on simulations they could be used to quickly explore the vast parameter space available. Further work is still required on including some physical processes in both simulations and semi-analytical modelling. This hybrid approach of fast, approximate modelling calibrated on numerical simulations can then be used to construct large libraries of reionization models for reliable interpretation of the observational data., Comment: Accepted for publication in the SKA Science Book 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', to appear in 2015

We provide an overview of 21cm tomography of the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization as possible with SKA-Low. We show why tomography is essential for studying CD/EoR and present the scales which can be imaged at different frequencies for the different phases of SKA- Low. Next we discuss the different ways in which tomographic data can be analyzed. We end with an overview of science questions which can only be answered by tomography, ranging from the characterization of individual objects to understanding the global processes shaping the Universe during the CD/EoR, Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in the SKA Science Book 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', to appear in 2015. PoS(AASKA14)010

We present an overview of the theory of high-redshift star and X-ray source formation, and how they affect the 21-cm background. Primary focus is given to Lyman alpha pumping and X-ray heating mechanisms at cosmic dawn, opening a new observational window for high-redshift astrophysics by generating sizable fluctuations in the 21-cm background. We describe observational prospects for power spectrum analysis and 3D tomography (imaging) of the signature of these early astrophysical sources by SKA1-LOW and SKA2., Comment: Accepted for publication in the SKA Science Book 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', to appear in 2015

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will offer an unprecedented view onto the early Universe, using interferometric observations of the redshifted 21cm line. The 21cm line probes the thermal and ionization state of the cosmic gas, which is governed by the birth and evolution of the first structures in our Universe. Here we show how the evolution of the 21cm signal will allow us to study when the first generations of galaxies appeared, what were their properties, and what was the structure of the intergalactic medium. We highlight qualitative trends which will offer robust insights into the early Universe., Comment: Accepted for publication in the SKA Science Book 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', to appear in 2015

We present new upper limits on the volume-weighted neutral hydrogen fraction, , at z~5-6 derived from spectroscopy of bright quasars. The fraction of the Lyman-alpha and Lyman-beta forests that is "dark" (with zero flux) provides the only model-independent upper limit on , requiring no assumptions about the physical conditions in the intergalactic medium or the quasar's unabsorbed UV continuum. In this work we update our previous results using a larger sample (22 objects) of medium-depth (~ few hours) spectra of high-redshift quasars obtained with the Magellan, MMT, and VLT. This significantly improves the upper bound on derived from dark pixel analysis to <= 0.06 + 0.05 (1{\sigma}) at z=5.9, and <= 0.04 + 0.05 (1{\sigma}) at z=5.6. These results provide robust constraints for theoretical models of reionization, and provide the strongest available evidence that reionization has completed (or is very nearly complete) by z~6., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication by MNRAS

We present a framework for high-redshift ($z \geq 7$) galaxy formation that traces their dark matter (DM) and baryonic assembly in four cosmologies: Cold Dark Matter (CDM) and Warm Dark Matter (WDM) with particle masses of $m_x =$ 1.5, 3 and 5 ${\rm keV}$. We use the same astrophysical parameters regulating star formation and feedback, chosen to match current observations of the evolving ultra violet luminosity function (UV LF). We find that the assembly of observable (with current and upcoming instruments) galaxies in CDM and $m_x \geq 3 {\rm keV}$ WDM results in similar halo mass to light ratios (M/L), stellar mass densities (SMDs) and UV LFs. However the suppression of small-scale structure leads to a notably delayed and subsequently more rapid stellar assembly in the $1.5 {\rm keV}$ WDM model. Thus galaxy assembly in $m_x \leq 2 {\rm keV}$ WDM cosmologies is characterized by: (i) a dearth of small-mass halos hosting faint galaxies; and (ii) a younger, more UV bright stellar population, for a given stellar mass. The higher M/L ratio (effect ii) partially compensates for the dearth of small-mass halos (effect i), making the resulting UV LFs closer to CDM than expected from simple estimates of halo abundances. We find that the redshift evolution of the SMD is a powerful probe of the nature of DM. Integrating down to a limit of $M_{UV} =-16.5$ for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the SMD evolves as $\log$(SMD)$\propto -0.63 (1+z)$ in $m_x = 1.5 {\rm keV}$ WDM, as compared to $\log$(SMD)$\propto -0.44 (1+z)$ in CDM. Thus high-redshift stellar assembly provides a powerful testbed for WDM models, accessible with the upcoming JWST., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Observations of the redshifted 21 cm line from neutral hydrogen will open a new window on the early Universe. By influencing the thermal and ionization history of the intergalactic medium (IGM), annihilating dark matter (DM) can leave a detectable imprint in the 21 cm signal. Building on the publicly available 21cmFAST code, we compute the 21 cm signal for a 10 GeV WIMP DM candidate. The most pronounced role of DM annihilations is in heating the IGM earlier and more uniformly than astrophysical sources of X-rays. This leaves several unambiguous, qualitative signatures in the redshift evolution of the large-scale ($k\approx0.1$ Mpc$^{-1}$) 21 cm power amplitude: (i) the local maximum (peak) associated with IGM heating can be lower than the other maxima; (ii) the heating peak can occur while the IGM is in emission against the cosmic microwave background (CMB); (iii) there can be a dramatic drop in power (a global minimum) corresponding to the epoch when the IGM temperature is comparable to the CMB temperature. These signatures are robust to astrophysical uncertainties, and will be easily detectable with second generation interferometers. We also briefly show that decaying warm dark matter has a negligible role in heating the IGM., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. Published in JCAP

The large cross-section of the Lyman alpha (Lya) line makes it a sensitive probe of the ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Here we present the most complete study to date of the IGM Lya opacity, and its application to the redshift evolution of the 'Lya fraction', i.e. the fraction of color-selected galaxies with a detectable Lya emission line. We use a tiered approach, which combines large-scale semi-numeric simulations of reionization with moderate-scale hydrodynamic simulations of the ionized IGM. This allows us to simultaneously account for evolution in both: (i) the opacity from an incomplete (patchy) reionization, parameterized by the filling factor of ionized regions, Q_HII; and (ii) the opacity from self-shielded systems in the ionized IGM, parameterized by the average photo-ionization rate inside HII regions, \Gamma. In contrast to recent empirical models, attenuation from patchy reionization has a unimodal distribution along different sightlines, while attenuation from self-shielded systems is more bimodal. We quantify the average IGM transmission in our (Q_HII, \Gamma) parameter space, which can easily be used to interpret new data sets. Using current observations, we predict that the Lya fraction cannot drop by more than a factor of ~2 with IGM attenuation alone, even for HII filling factors as low as Q_HII>0.1. Larger changes in the Lya fraction could result from a co-evolution with galaxy properties. Marginalizing over \Gamma, we find that current observations constrain Q_HII < 0.6 at z=7 [68% confidence level (C.L.)]. However, all of our parameter space is consistent with observations at 95% C.L., highlighting the need for larger observational samples at z >= 6., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, MNRAS submitted

The nature of the seeds of high-redshift supermassive black holes (SMBHs) is a key question in cosmology. Direct collapse black holes (DCBH) that form in pristine, atomic-line cooling halos, illuminated by a Lyman-Werner (LW) UV flux exceeding a critical threshold J_crit, represent an attractive possibility. We investigate when and where these conditions are met during cosmic evolution. For the LW intensity, J_LW, we account for departures from the background value in close proximity to star forming galaxies. For the pristine halo fraction, we account for both (i) supernova driven outflows, and (ii) the inherent pollution from progenitor halos. We estimate the abundance of DCBH formation sites, n_DCBH(z), and find that it increases with cosmic time from n_DCBH(z=20) ~ 1e-12 -1e-7 cMpc^-3 to n_DCBH(z=10) ~ 1e-10 - 1e-5 cMpc^-3. Our analysis shows the possible importance of galactic winds, which can suppress the predicted n_DCBH by several orders of magnitude, and cause DCBH formation to preferentially occur around the UV-brightest (M_UV ~ -22 to -20) star forming galaxies. Our analysis further highlights the dependence of these predictions on (i) the escape fraction of LW photons, (ii) J_crit, and (iii) the galactic outflow prescription., Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, accepted to MNRAS

The cosmological 21cm signal is a physics-rich probe of the early Universe, encoding information about both the ionization and the thermal history of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The latter is likely governed by X-rays from star-formation processes inside very high redshift (z > 15) galaxies. Due to the strong dependence of the mean free path on the photon energy, the X-ray SED can have a significant impact on the interferometric signal from the cosmic dawn. Recent Chandra observations of nearby, star-forming galaxies show that their SEDs are more complicated than is usually assumed in 21cm studies. In particular, these galaxies have ubiquitous, sub-keV thermal emission from the hot interstellar medium (ISM), which generally dominates the soft X-ray luminosity (with energies < 1 keV, sufficiently low to significantly interact with the IGM). Using illustrative soft and hard SEDs, we show that the IGM temperature fluctuations in the early Universe would be substantially increased if the X-ray spectra of the first galaxies were dominated by the hot ISM, compared with X-ray binaries with harder spectra. The associated large-scale power of the 21cm signal would be higher by roughly a factor of three. More generally, we show that the peak in the redshift evolution of the large-scale (k = 0.2 1/Mpc) 21cm power is a robust probe of the soft-band SED of the first galaxies, and importantly, is not degenerate with their bolometric luminosities. On the other hand, the redshift of the peak constrains the X-ray luminosity and halo masses which host the first galaxies., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication on MNRAS

By depleting the ionizing photon budget available to expand cosmic HII regions, recombining systems (or Lyman limit systems) can have a large impact during (and following) cosmic reionization. Unfortunately, directly resolving such structures in large-scale reionization simulations is computationally impractical. Instead, here we implement a sub-grid prescription for tracking inhomogeneous recombinations in the intergalactic medium. Building on previous work parameterizing photo-heating feedback on star-formation, we present large-scale, semi-numeric reionization simulations which self-consistently track the local (sub-grid) evolution of both sources and sinks of ionizing photons. Our simple, single-parameter model naturally results in both an extended reionization and a modest, slowly-evolving emissivity, consistent with observations. Recombinations are instrumental in slowing the growth of large HII regions, and damping the rapid rise of the ionizing background in the late stages of (and following) reionization. As a result, typical HII regions are smaller by factors of $\sim 2-3$ throughout reionization. The large-scale ($k\lesssim 0.2\text{ Mpc$^{-1}$}$) ionization power spectrum is suppressed by factors of $\gtrsim 2-3$ in the second half of reionization. Therefore properly modeling recombinations is important in interpreting virtually all reionization observables, including upcoming interferometry with the redshifted 21 cm line. Consistent with previous works, we find the clumping factor of ionized gas to be $C_{\rm HII}\sim 4$ at the end of reionization., Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures, submitted to MNRAS

The rapid decline in the number of strong Lyman Alpha (Lya) emitting galaxies at z > 6 provides evidence for neutral hydrogen in the IGM, but is difficult to explain with plausible models for reionization. We demonstrate that the observed reduction in Lya flux from galaxies at z > 6 can be explained by evolution in the escape fraction of ionizing photons, f_esc. We find that the median observed drop in the fraction of galaxies showing strong Lya emission, as well as the observed evolution of the Lya luminosity function both follow from a small increase in f_esc of Delta f_esc ~ 0.1 from f_esc ~ 0.6 at z ~ 6. This high escape fraction may be at odds with current constraints on the ionising photon escape fraction, which favor smaller values of f_esc < 20%. However, models that invoke a redshift evolution of f_ esc that is consistent with these constraints can suppress the z~7 Lya flux to the observed level, if they also include a small evolution in global neutral fraction of Delta x_HI ~ 0.2. Thus, an evolving escape fraction of ionising photons can be a plausible part of the explanation for evolution in the Lya emission of high redshift galaxies. More generally, our analysis also shows that the drop in the Lya fraction is quantitatively consistent with the observed evolution in the Lya luminosity functions of Lya Emitters., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Added references & brief discussion on line shape evolution

We describe a new technique for constraining the radio loud population of active galactic nuclei at high redshift by measuring the imprint of 21 cm spectral absorption features (the 21 cm forest) on the 21 cm power spectrum. Using semi-numerical simulations of the intergalactic medium and a semi-empirical source population we show that the 21 cm forest dominates a distinctive region of $k$-space, $k \gtrsim 0.5 \text{Mpc}^{-1}$. By simulating foregrounds and noise for current and potential radio arrays, we find that a next generation instrument with a collecting area on the order of $\sim 0.1\text{km}^2$ (such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array) may separately constrain the X-ray heating history at large spatial scales and radio loud active galactic nuclei of the model we study at small ones. We extrapolate our detectability predictions for a single radio loud active galactic nuclei population to arbitrary source scenarios by analytically relating the 21 cm forest power spectrum to the optical depth power spectrum and an integral over the radio luminosity function., Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

[ABRIDGED] The cosmological 21cm signal is set to become the most powerful probe of the early Universe, with first generation interferometers aiming to make statistical detections of reionization. There is increasing interest also in the pre-reionization epoch when the intergalactic medium was heated by an early X-ray background. Here we perform parameter studies varying the halo masses hosting galaxies, and their X-ray production efficiencies. We also relate these to popular models of Warm Dark Matter cosmologies. For each parameter combination we compute the signal-to-noise (S/N) of the large-scale (k~0.1/Mpc) 21cm power for both reionization and X-ray heating for a 2000h observation with several instruments: 128 tile Murchison Wide Field Array (MWA128T), a 256 tile extension (MWA256T), the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR), the 128 element Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER), and the second generation Square Kilometre Array (SKA). We show that X-ray heating and reionization in many cases are of comparable detectability. For fiducial astrophysical parameters, MWA128T might detect X-ray heating thanks to its extended bandpass. When it comes to reionization, both MWA128T and PAPER will also only achieve marginal detections, unless foregrounds on larger scales can be mitigated. On the other hand, LOFAR should detect plausible models of reionization at S/N > 10. The SKA will easily detect both X-ray heating and reionization., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, MNRAS in-press

We investigate the effects of warm dark matter (WDM) on the cosmic 21-cm signal. If dark matter exists as WDM instead of cold dark matter (CDM), its non-negligible velocities can inhibit the formation of low-mass halos that normally form first in CDM models, therefore delaying star-formation. The absence of early sources delays the build-up of UV and X-ray backgrounds that affect the 21-cm radiation signal produced by neutral hydrogen. With use of the 21CMFAST, code, we demonstrate that the pre-reionization 21-cm signal can be changed significantly in WDM models with a free-streaming length equivalent to that of a thermal relic with mass mx of up to ~10-20 keV. In such a WDM cosmology, the 21-cm signal traces the growth of more massive halos, resulting in a delay of the 21-cm absorption signature and followed by accelerated X-ray heating. CDM models where astrophysical sources have a suppressed photon-production efficiency can delay the 21-cm signal as well, although its subsequent evolution is not as rapid as compared to WDM. This motivates using the gradient of the global 21-cm signal to differentiate between some CDM and WDM models. Finally, we show that the degeneracy between the astrophysics and mx can be broken with the 21-cm power spectrum, as WDM models should have a bias-induced excess of power on large scales. This boost in power should be detectable with current interferometers for models with mx < 3 keV, while next generation instruments will easily be able to measure this difference for all relevant WDM models., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures