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Background Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are amongst the most prevalent infections in the world. Mass drug administration (MDA) programmes have become the most commonly used national interventions for endemic countries to achieve elimination. This paper aims to describe the effect of an 8-year MDA programme on the prevalence, intensity of infection and co-infection of STH in Burundi from 2007 to 2014 and critically appraise the trajectory towards STH elimination in the country. Results Annual STH parasitological surveys (specifically, a “pilot study” from 2007 to 2011, an “extension study” from 2008 to 2011, and a “national reassessment” in 2014; n = 27,658 children), showed a significant drop in prevalence of infection with any STH (“pooled STH”) between baseline and 2011 in both studies, falling from 32 to 16 % in the pilot study, and from 35 to 16 % in the extension study. Most STH infections were of low intensity according to WHO classification. The national reassessment in 2014 showed that prevalence of pooled STH remained significantly below the prevalence in 2007 in both studies but there was no further decrease in STH prevalence from 2011 levels during this time. Spatial dependence analysis showed that prevalence of Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides had a tendency to cluster over the years, whilst only trends in spatial dependence were evident for hookworm infections. Spatial dependence fluctuated over the course of the programme for Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura. However, spatial trends in spatial dependence were evident in 2010 for Ascaris lumbricoides. Analysis of spatial clustering of intensity of infection and heavy infections revealed that the intensity changed over time for all parasites. Heavy intensity was only evident in Ascaris lumbricoides for 2008 and did not appear in proceeding years and other parasites. Conclusions These results demonstrate that sustained annual MDA significantly reduced the prevalence of STH infection in school-age children but was unable to achieve elimination. Additionally, significant decline in prevalence was accompanied by a drop in spatial clustering of infection indicators across all sites from 2008. The lack of consistency in the results of the spatial dependence analysis highlights that MDA programmes can interrupt the normal transmission dynamics of STH parasites. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1794-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Daily mortality is an important determinant of a vector's ability to transmit pathogens. Original simplifying assumptions in malaria transmission models presume vector mortality is independent of age, infection status and parasite load. Previous studies illustrate conflicting evidence as to the importance of Plasmodium-induced vector mortality, but very few studies to date have considered the effect of infection density on mosquito survival. Methods A series of three experiments were conducted, each consisting of four cages of 400-1,000 Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes fed on blood infected with different Plasmodium berghei ookinete densities per microlitre of blood. Twice daily the numbers of dead mosquitoes in each group were recorded, and on alternate days a sample of live mosquitoes from each group were dissected to determine parasite density in both midgut and salivary glands. Results Survival analyses indicate that mosquito mortality is both age- and infection intensity-dependent. Mosquitoes experienced an initially high, partly feeding-associated, mortality rate, which declined to a minimum before increasing with mosquito age and parasite intake. As a result, the life expectancy of a mosquito is shown to be dependent on both insect age and the density of Plasmodium infection. Conclusion These results contribute to understanding in greater detail the processes that influence sporogony in the mosquito, indicate the impact that parasite density could have on malaria transmission dynamics, and have implications for the design, development, and evaluation of transmission-blocking strategies.

Background The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development. Methods An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission. Results The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system. Conclusions A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of Plasmodium species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for onchocerciasis elimination in Latin America by 2015. Most of the six previously endemic countries are attaining this goal by implementing twice a year (and in some foci, quarterly) mass ivermectin (Mectizan®) distribution. Elimination of transmission has been verified in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico. Challenges remain in the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil, where the disease affects the hard-to-reach Yanomami indigenous population. We provide evidence of suppression of Onchocerca volvulus transmission by Simulium guianense s.l. in 16 previously hyperendemic Yanomami communities in southern Venezuela after 15 years of 6-monthly and 5 years of 3-monthly mass ivermectin treatment. Methods Baseline and monitoring and evaluation parasitological, ophthalmological, entomological and serological surveys were conducted in selected sentinel and extra-sentinel communities of the focus throughout the implementation of the programme. Results From 2010 to 2012–2015, clinico-parasitological surveys indicate a substantial decrease in skin microfilarial prevalence and intensity of infection; accompanied by no evidence (or very low prevalence and intensity) of ocular microfilariae in the examined population. Of a total of 51,341 S. guianense flies tested by PCR none had L3 infection (heads only). Prevalence of infective flies and seasonal transmission potentials in 2012–2013 were, respectively, under 1 % and 20 L3/person/transmission season. Serology in children aged 1–10 years demonstrated that although 26 out of 396 (7 %) individuals still had Ov-16 antibodies, only 4/218 (2 %) seropositives were aged 1–5 years. Conclusions We report evidence of recent transmission and morbidity suppression in some communities of the focus representing 75 % of the Yanomami population and 70 % of all known communities. We conclude that onchocerciasis transmission could be feasibly interrupted in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1313-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Details on Methods and Analyses. (PDF 80 kb)

The World Health Organization has targeted the elimination of blinding trachoma by the year 2020. To this end, the Global Elimination of Blinding Trachoma (GET, 2020) alliance relies on a four-pronged approach, known as the SAFE strategy (S for trichiasis surgery; A for antibiotic treatment; F for facial cleanliness and E for environmental improvement). Well-constructed and parameterized mathematical models provide useful tools that can be used in policy making and forecasting in order to help to control trachoma and understand the feasibility of this large-scale elimination effort. As we approach this goal, the need to understand the transmission dynamics of infection within areas of different endemicities, to optimize available resources and to identify which strategies are the most cost-effective becomes more pressing. In this study, we conducted a review of the modelling literature for trachoma and identified 23 articles that included a mechanistic or statistical model of the transmission, dynamics and/or control of (ocular) Chlamydia trachomatis. Insights into the dynamics of trachoma transmission have been generated through both deterministic and stochastic models. A large body of the modelling work conducted to date has shown that, to varying degrees of effectiveness, antibiotic administration can reduce or interrupt trachoma transmission. However, very little analysis has been conducted to consider the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (and particularly the F and E components of the SAFE strategy) in helping to reduce transmission. Furthermore, very few of the models identified in the literature review included a structure that permitted tracking of the prevalence of active disease (in the absence of active infection) and the subsequent progression to disease sequelae (the morbidity associated with trachoma and ultimately the target of GET 2020 goals). This represents a critical gap in the current trachoma modelling literature, which makes it difficult to reliably link infection and disease. In addition, it hinders the application of modelling to assist the public health community in understanding whether trachoma programmes are on track to reach the GET goals by 2020. Another gap identified in this review was that of the 23 articles examined, only one considered the cost-effectiveness of the interventions implemented. We conclude that although good progress has been made towards the development of modelling frameworks for trachoma transmission, key components of disease sequelae representation and economic evaluation of interventions are currently missing from the available literature. We recommend that rapid advances in these areas should be urgently made to ensure that mathematical models for trachoma transmission can robustly guide elimination efforts and quantify progress towards GET 2020.

PRISMA Checklist. (PDF 65 kb)

Knowledge of pattern and process in helminth population biology is mostly based on the endemic equilibrium state that characterises infections before control. Current large-scale intervention programmes aim at controlling/eliminating helminth infection, transmission and morbidity. As a result, age-infection profiles will be modified; immune responses will be affected; underlying parasite distributions may become more aggregated; density-dependent regulatory processes will relax; and the contribution to transmission and morbidity of different host population groups will shift. There is an urgent need to understand how the paradigm that has guided parasite population biology research is changing under chemotherapy-based control programmes for this research to continue supporting parasite control efforts effectively.

In a Letter to the Editor, Eberhard et al. question the validity of our model of skin snip sensitivity and argue against the use of skin snips to evaluate onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration. Here we discuss their arguments and compare model predictions with observed data to assess the validity of our model.

SUMMARYAnaemia is a severe public health issue among African preschool-aged children, yet little effective progress has been made towards its amelioration, in part due to difficulties in unravelling its complex, multifactorial aetiology. To determine the current anaemia situation and assess the relative contribution of malaria, intestinal schistosomiasis and infection with soil-transmitted helminths, two separate cross-sectional epidemiological surveys were carried out in Uganda including 573 and 455 preschool-aged children (⩽6 years) living along the shores of Lake Albert and on the islands in Lake Victoria, respectively. Anaemia was found to be a severe public health problem in Lake Albert, affecting 68·9% of children (ninety-five percent confidence intervals (95% CI) 64·9–72·7%), a statistically significant higher prevalence relative to the 27·3% detected in Lake Victoria (95% CI: 23·3–31·7%). After multivariate analysis (controlling for sex and age of the child), the only factor found to be significantly associated with increased odds of anaemia in both lake systems was malaria (Lake Albert, odds ratio (OR)=2·1, 95% CI: 1·4–3·2; Lake Victoria, OR=1·9, 95% CI: 1·2–2·9). Thus intervention strategies primarily focusing on very young children and combating malaria appear to represent the most appropriate use of human and financial resources for the prevention of anaemia in this age group and area. Looking to the future, these activities could be further emphasised within the National Child Health DaysPLUSagenda.

Identification of drug resistance before it becomes a public health concern requires a clear distinction between what constitutes a normal and a suboptimal treatment response. A novel method of analyzing drug efficacy studies in human helminthiases is proposed and used to investigate recent claims of atypical responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness. The variability in the rate at which Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae repopulate host's skin following ivermectin treatment is quantified using an individual-based onchocerciasis mathematical model. The model estimates a single skin repopulation rate for every host sampled, allowing reports of suboptimal responses to be statistically compared with responses from populations with no prior exposure to ivermectin. Statistically faster rates of skin repopulation were observed in 3 Ghanaian villages (treated 12–17 times), despite the wide variability in repopulation rates observed in ivermectin-naïve populations. Another village previously thought to have high rates of skin repopulation was shown to be indistinguishable from the normal treatment response. The model is used to generate testable hypotheses to identify whether atypical rates of skin repopulation by microfilariae could result from low treatment coverage alone or provide evidence of decreased ivermectin efficacy. Further work linking phenotypic poor responses to treatment with parasite molecular genetics markers will be required to confirm drug resistance. Limitations of the skin-snipping method for estimating parasite load indicates that changes in the distribution of microfilarial repopulation rates, rather than their absolute values, maybe a more sensitive indicator of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Schistosoma japonicum, a parasite of significant public health importance in parts of China and Southeast Asia, is a true generalist pathogen with over 40 species of mammals suspected as definitive host reservoirs. In order to characterize levels of parasite gene flow across host species and identify the most important zoonotic reservoirs, S. japonicum larvae (miracidia) were sampled from a range of definitive host species in two contrasting habitat types within Anhui Province, China: a low-lying marshland region, and a hilly region, where animal reservoir populations may be predicted to differ substantially. Miracidia samples were genotyped using seven multiplexed microsatellite markers. Hierarchical F-statistics and clustering analyses revealed substantial geographical structuring of S. japonicum populations within Anhui, with strong parasite genetic differentiation between habitat types. Within most villages, there was very little or no parasite genetic differentiation among host species, suggesting frequent S. japonicum gene flow, and thus also transmission, across species. Moreover, the data provide novel molecular evidence that rodents and dogs are potentially very important infection reservoirs in hilly regions, in contrast to bovines in the marshland regions. The parasite genetic differentiation between habitat types might therefore be associated with contrasting host reservoirs. The high levels of parasite gene flow observed across host species in sympatric areas have important implications for S. japonicum control, particularly in hilly regions where control of infection among wild rodent populations could be challenging.

SUMMARYRegular distribution of ivermectin reduces onchocerciasis transmission and morbidity by killing, within humans, the microfilarial stage of the parasite (microfilaricidal effect). In addition, ivermectin exerts a so-called embryostatic effect by which microfilarial production by the adult female worm becomes suppressed during a number of weeks after treatment. To assess the overall effect of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission and evaluate the likelihood of local elimination of the infection it is important to estimate the magnitude of the anti-fertility effect over the course of a treatment programme. Estimates of the effect of repeated drug treatments on the production of microfilariae by adult Onchocerca volvulus were obtained by developing a model that was fitted to data collected from three hyperendemic communities in Guatemala, where eligible residents received ivermectin twice per year for two and a half years. The data consist of microfilarial load measurements in the skin, collected just before each six-monthly treatment during the programme. The model that is developed describes the dynamics of an individual host's expected microfilarial load over the 30-month study period. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques to fit the model to the data. Combining estimates from the three villages, average microfilarial production in the first six months post-treatment was reduced by ~64% of its pre-treatment level, regardless of values chosen for the pre-ivermectin fertility rate within plausible ranges. Increased adult worm death rate after treatment (to mimic removal of macrofilariae via nodulectomy during the programme) resulted in a smaller estimated magnitude of the embryostatic effect (rate of microfilarial production was reduced by ~58% of pre-ivermectin value). After subsequent treatments, the rate of microfilarial production appeared to be similarly decreased. The data and analyses therefore do not support the hypothesis of a cumulative effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on microfilarial production by female worms.

Summary The broad-spectrum antiparasitic drug ivermectin was licensed for use against onchocerciasis in 1987, yet the mechanisms by which it exerts a fast decrease and long-lasting suppression of Onchocerca volvulus microfilaridermia, and inhibition of microfilarial release by female worms remain largely unknown. A better understanding of the effects of ivermectin on O volvulus microfilariae and macrofilariae is crucial to improve our ability to predict the long-term effect of treatment. We did a systematic review of individual and population-based ivermectin trials to investigate the temporal dynamics of the drug's microfilaricidal and embryostatic efficacy after administration of a single, standard dose (150 μg/kg). Meta-analyses on data from 26 microfilarial and 15 macrofilarial studies were linked by a mathematical model describing the dynamics of potentially fertile female parasites to skin microfilariae. The model predicts that after treatment, microfilaridermia would be reduced by half after 24 h, by 85% after 72 h, by 94% after 1 week, and by 98–99% after 1–2 months, the latter also corresponding to the time when the fraction of females harbouring live microfilariae is at its lowest (reduced by around 70% from its original value). Our results provide a baseline microfilarial skin repopulation curve against which to compare studies done after long-term treatment.

SUMMARYCurrently, annual mass treatments with albendazole (ABZ) plus ivermectin (IVM) or diethylcarbamazine (DEC) are administered under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). Drug resistance against both ABZ and IVM is prevalent in nematodes of veterinary importance, raising awareness that if anthelmintic resistance were to develop amongWuchereria bancroftipopulations, this would jeopardize GPELF's goals. Genetic structure was incorporated into an existing transmission dynamics model for lymphatic filariasis (LF) to investigate the potential development of concurrent resistance to ABZ and IVM. The resultant models explore the impact of different inheritance modes of resistance to ABZ and IVM on the likely risk of treatment failure under our model assumptions. Results indicate that under ABZ+IVM combination, selection for resistance to one drug is enhanced if resistance to the other drug is already present. Excess parasite homozygosity may increase selection for dominant IVM resistanceviaenhancing the frequency of recessive ABZ resistance. The model predicts that if multiple resistance genes are associated with different efficacy properties of a drug combination, then examining changes at single loci may be misleading. Sampling schemes in genetic epidemiological surveys investigating the frequency of an allele under selection should consider host age, as individuals of different ages may acquire parasites at different rates.

The role that interspecific interactions play in shaping parasite communities is uncertain. To date, models of competition between helminth species have assumed that interaction occurs through parasite-induced host death. To our knowledge, there has been no theoretical exploration of other forms of competition. We examine models in which competition acts at the point of establishment within the host, and at the time of egg production by the adult worm. The models used are stochastic and we allow hosts to vary in their rate of exposure to infective larvae. We derive the Lotka-Volterra model of competition when exposure is homogenous and thus demonstrate that two helminth species cannot coexist on a single limiting resource. We show that coexistence of species is promoted by heterogeneity in host exposure provided that the rates of exposure to the two species are not perfectly correlated, and, if they are positively correlated, provided that the degree of heterogeneity in host exposure is similar for the two competing helminth species. These results are robust to the mechanism of competition.

Purpose: Trachoma control programs are underway in endemic regions worldwide. They are based on the SAFE strategy (Surgery for trichiasis, Antibiotic distribution, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvement). Although much is known about the effect of community-wide treatment with antibiotics on the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, the impact of the SAFE strategy on severe ocular disease sequelae (the main focus of the Global Elimination of blinding Trachoma by 2020 program) remains largely unknown. Methods: We use a mathematical model to explore the impact of each of the components of the SAFE strategy, individually and together, on disease sequelae, arising from repeat infection and subsequent conjunctival scarring. We ask whether two elimination goals, to reduce the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis to 1 per 1000 persons, and the incidence of corneal opacity to 1 per 10,000 persons per annum, are achievable, and which combinations of interventions have the greatest impact on these indicators. Results: In high prevalence communities (here, >20% infection of children aged 1–9 years), a combination of efforts is needed to bring down sustainably the prevalence and incidence of ocular disease sequelae. Conclusion: The mass delivery of antibiotics is highly beneficial for the clearance of infection, inflammation and prevention of subsequent scarring, but needs to be supplemented with sustained reductions in transmission and surgery to consider realistically the elimination of blindness by the year 2020.

Background The clinical outcomes associated with Chagas disease remain poorly understood. In addition to the burden of morbidity, the burden of mortality due to Trypanosoma cruzi infection can be substantial, yet its quantification has eluded rigorous scrutiny. This is partly due to considerable heterogeneity between studies, which can influence the resulting estimates. There is a pressing need for accurate estimates of mortality due to Chagas disease that can be used to improve mathematical modelling, burden of disease evaluations, and cost-effectiveness studies. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to select observational studies comparing mortality in populations with and without a diagnosis of Chagas disease using the PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and LILACS databases, without restrictions on language or date of publication. The primary outcome of interest was mortality (as all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, heart transplant or cardiovascular deaths). Data were analysed using a random-effects model to obtain the relative risk (RR) of mortality, the attributable risk percent (ARP), and the annual mortality rates (AMR). The statistic I2 (proportion of variance in the meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity) was calculated. Sensitivity analyses and publication bias test were also conducted. Results Twenty five studies were selected for quantitative analysis, providing data on 10,638 patients, 53,346 patient-years of follow-up, and 2739 events. Pooled estimates revealed that Chagas disease patients have significantly higher AMR compared with non-Chagas disease patients (0.18 versus 0.10; RR = 1.74, 95 % CI 1.49–2.03). Substantial heterogeneity was found among studies (I2 = 67.3 %). The ARP above background mortality was 42.5 %. Through a sub-analysis patients were classified by clinical group (severe, moderate, asymptomatic). While RR did not differ significantly between clinical groups, important differences in AMR were found: AMR = 0.43 in Chagas vs. 0.29 in non-Chagas patients (RR = 1.40, 95 % CI 1.21–1.62) in the severe group; AMR = 0.16 (Chagas) vs. 0.08 (non-Chagas) (RR = 2.10, 95 % CI 1.52-2.91) in the moderate group, and AMR = 0.02 vs. 0.01 (RR = 1.42, 95 % CI 1.14–1.77) in the asymptomatic group. Meta-regression showed no evidence of study-level covariates on the effect size. Publication bias was not statistically significant (Egger's test p=0.08). Conclusions The results indicate a statistically significant excess of mortality due to Chagas disease that is shared among both symptomatic and asymptomatic populations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1315-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Anopheles mosquito life-history parameters and population dynamics strongly influence malaria transmission, and environmental factors, particularly temperature, strongly affect these parameters. There are currently some studies on how temperature affects Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival but very few exist examining other life-history traits. We investigate here the effect of temperature on population dynamics parameters. Methods Anopheles gambiae s.s. immatures were reared individually at 23 ± 1 °C, 27 ± 1 °C, 31 ± 1 °C, and 35 ± 1 °C, and adults were held at their larval temperature or at one of the other temperatures. Larvae were checked every 24 h for development to the next stage and measured for size; wing length was measured as a proxy for adult size. Females were blood fed three times, and the number of females feeding and laying eggs was counted. The numbers of eggs and percentage of eggs hatched were recorded. Results Increasing temperatures during the larval stages resulted in significantly smaller larvae (p = 0.005) and smaller adults (p

Background Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups. Conclusions/Significance An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance., Author Summary Novel and alternative strategies are required to meet the demanding control and elimination (of infection) goals for human onchocerciasis (river blindness) in Africa. Due to the overlapping distribution of onchocerciasis and loiasis (African eye worm) in forested areas of central Africa, millions of people living in such areas are not well served by current interventions because they cannot safely receive the antiparasitic drug ivermectin that is distributed en masse to treat onchocerciasis elsewhere in Africa. The Onchocerciasis Vaccine for Africa—TOVA—Initiative has been established to develop and trial an onchocerciasis vaccine. We model the potential impact of a hypothetical childhood vaccination programme rolled out in areas where co-endemicity of onchocerciasis and African eye worm makes mass distribution of ivermectin difficult and potentially unsafe for treating, controlling and eliminating river blindness. We find that, 15 years into the programme, a vaccine would substantially reduce infection levels in children and young adults, protecting them from the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis. Most benefit would be reaped from a long-lived vaccine, even if only partially protective. We also discuss how a vaccine could substantially reduce the risk of re-emergence of onchocerciasis in areas freed from infection after years of successful intervention.

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis ( Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history. Methodology/Principal Findings Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3–24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0–4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies. Conclusions/Significance Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance., Author Summary The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. The success of elimination using ivermectin treatment alone will depend on several interacting factors including baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and vector species mix. In Ghana, transmission persists despite prolonged control. We investigated entomological determinants of this persistence. Blackflies were collected from seven villages with 3–24 years of ivermectin treatment. A total of 12,196 flies was dissected, with 463 larvae (all Onchocerca volvulus) in 97 infected and 62 infective flies. Transmission indices in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, amounted to, respectively, 86 and 422 infective larvae/person/month after 3 and 6 years of ivermectin treatment. Infection levels at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 parous flies. At Asubende, an infective fly was caught among ovipositing flies in nearby breeding sites, indicating that infection was just over the WHO threshold despite extensive ivermectin and vector control. Spatial and seasonal vector species composition influences the magnitude of transmission indices through variations in biting and parous rates, and vectorial competence and capacity, and should be reflected in transmission models. Oviposition traps could enhance vector collection for transmission monitoring and surveillance.

Background Spurred by success in several foci, onchocerciasis control policy in Africa has shifted from morbidity control to elimination of infection. Clinical trials have demonstrated that moxidectin is substantially more efficacious than ivermectin in effecting sustained reductions in skin microfilarial load and, therefore, may accelerate progress towards elimination. We compare the potential cost-effectiveness of annual moxidectin with annual and biannual ivermectin treatment. Methods Data from the first clinical study of moxidectin were used to parameterise the onchocerciasis transmission model EPIONCHO to investigate, for different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah settings, the number of years and in-country costs necessary to reach the operational thresholds for cessation of treatment, comparing annual and biannual ivermectin with annual moxidectin treatment. Results Annual moxidectin and biannual ivermectin treatment would achieve similar reductions in programme duration relative to annual ivermectin treatment. Unlike biannual ivermectin treatment, annual moxidectin treatment would not incur a considerable increase in programmatic costs and, therefore, would generate sizeable in-country cost savings (assuming the drug is donated). Furthermore, the impact of moxidectin, unlike ivermectin, was not substantively influenced by the timing of treatment relative to seasonal patterns of transmission. Conclusions Moxidectin is a promising new drug for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis. It has high programmatic value particularly when resource limitation prevents a biannual treatment strategy, or optimal timing of treatment relative to peak transmission season is not feasible. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0779-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Malaria reduction is most efficiently achieved by vector control whereby human populations at high risk of contracting and transmitting the disease are protected from mosquito bites. Here, we identify the presence of antibiotics in the blood of malaria-infected people as a new risk of increasing disease transmission. We show that antibiotics in ingested blood enhance the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes to malaria infection by disturbing their gut microbiota. This effect is confirmed in a semi-natural setting by feeding mosquitoes with blood of children naturally infected with Plasmodium falciparum. Antibiotic exposure additionally increases mosquito survival and fecundity, which are known to augment vectorial capacity. These findings suggest that malaria transmission may be exacerbated in areas of high antibiotic usage, and that regions targeted by mass drug administration programs against communicable diseases may necessitate increased vector control., The gut microbiota of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes contributes to the insects’ resistance to the parasite. Here, Gendrin et al. show that antibiotics in ingested human blood alter the mosquito gut microbiota and increase the insect’s survival, fecundity and susceptibility to the parasites.

Background The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI). Methods A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda. Results Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis. Conclusions Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made.

1. Mathematical Modelling of Trachoma Transmission, Control and Elimination A. Pinsent, I.M. Blake, M.-G. Basanez and M. Gambhir 2. Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis K.S. Rock, R.J. Quinnell, G.F. Medley and O. Courtenay 3. Soil Transmitted Helminths: Mathematical Models of Transmission, the Impact of Mass Drug Administration and Transmission Elimination Criteria J.E. Truscott, H.C. Turner, S.H. Farrell and R.M. Anderson 4. Studies of the Transmission Dynamics, Mathematical Model Development, and the Control of Schistosome Parasites By Mass Drug Administration in Human Communities R.M. Anderson, H.C. Turner, S.H. Farrell and J.E. Truscott 5. River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination M.-G. Basanez, M. Walker, H.C. Turner, L.E. Coffeng, S.J. de Vlas and W.A. Stolk 6. The Role of More Sensitive Helminth Diagnostics on Mass Drug Administration Campaigns: Elimination and Health Impacts G.F. Medley, H.C. Turner, R.F. Baggaley, C. Holland and T.D. Hollingsworth 7. Lessons Learned from Developing an Eradication Investment Case for Lymphatic Filariasis R.J. Kastner, C.M. Stone, P. Steinmann, M. Tanner and F. Tediosi

The influence of density-dependent processes on the transmission of parasitic helminths is determined by both the severity of the regulatory constraints and the degree of parasite overdispersion among the host population. We investigate how overdispersed parasite distributions among humans influence transmission levels in both directly- and indirectly-transmitted nematodes (Ascaris lumbricoides and Onchocerca volvulus). While past work has assumed, for simplicity, that density dependence acts on the average worm load, here we model density-dependence as acting on individual parasite burdens before averaging across hosts. A composite parameter, which we call the effective transmission contribution, is devised to measure the number of transmission stages contributed by a given worm burden after incorporating overdispersion in adult worm mating probabilities and other density-dependent mechanisms. Results indicate that the more overdispersed the parasite population, the greater the effect of density dependence upon its transmission dynamics. Strong regulation and parasite overdispersion make the relationship between mean worm burden and its effective contribution to transmission highly non-linear. Consequently, lowering the intensity of infection in a host population using chemotherapy may produce only a small decline in transmission (relative to its initial endemic level). Our analysis indicates that when parasite burden is low, intermediate levels of parasite clustering maximize transmission. Implications are discussed in relation to existing control programmes and the spread of anthelmintic resistance.

The influence of spatial and temporal factors on onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium exiguum s.l. and S. quadrivittatum in Ecuador was investigated to help develop sampling protocols for entomological surveillance of ivermectin programmes. Flies were collected in alternate months (November 1995-November 1996) at four sites each in the hyperendemic communities of San Miguel and El Tigre. A fixed-effects analysis of variance was used to explore the influence on vector abundance of locality, site, month and hour. Infectivity rates detected by dissection and PCR assays were compared. Simulium exiguum s.l. predominated at El Tigre (75%) whereas S. quadrivittatum prevailed at San Miguel (62%). Vector abundance was highest on river banks and outside houses. Biting and infection rates peaked from March to July. Hourly activity patterns were bimodal in S. exiguum but unimodal in S. quadrivittatum. Annual transmission potentials (ATP) for both species combined were 385 and 733 third stage larvae/person in San Miguel and El Tigre respectively, with S. exiguum accounting for 80% of the combined ATP at both localities. We recommend protocols that may maximize detection of parasite transmission. Infection rates thus obtained must be linked with vector density estimates to assess meaningfully host exposure as treatment progresses.

The relation between the number of microfilariae (mf) ingested by host-seeking vectors of human onchocerciasis and skin mf load is an important component of the population biology of Onchocerca volvulus, with implications for disease control and evaluation of the risk of transmission recrudescence. The microsimulation model ONCHOSIM has been used to assess such risk in the area of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa, based on a strongly nonlinear relation between vector mf uptake and human mf skin density previously published. However, observed levels of recrudescence have exceeded predictions, warranting a recalibration of the model. To this end, we present the results of a series of fly-feeding experiments carried out in savanna and forest localities of West Africa. Flies belonging to Simulium damnosum s.s., S. sirbanum, S. soubrense, and S. leonense were fed on mf carriers and dissected to assess the number of ingested mf escaping imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix (the number of exo-peritrophic mf), a predictor of infective larval output. The method of instrumental variables was used to obtain (nearly) unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest, taking into account error in the measurement of skin mf density. This error is often neglected in these types of studies, making it difficult to ascertain the degree of density-dependence truly present in the relation between mf uptake and skin load. We conclude that this relation is weakly (yet significantly) nonlinear in savanna settings but indistinguishable from linearity in forest vectors. Exo-peritrophic mf uptake does not account for most of the density dependence in the transmission dynamics of the parasite as previously thought. The number of exo-mf in forest simuliids is at least five times higher than in the savanna vectors. Parasite abundance in human onchocerciasis is regulated by poorly known mechanisms operating mainly on other stages of the lifecycle.

As evidence grew for a causal link between Zika infection and microcephaly and other serious congenital anomalies ( 1 ), the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Latin American Zika epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 ( 2 ). The speed of spread [see the figure, top, and the supplementary materials (SM)] has made effective public health responses challenging. Immediate responses have included vector control ( 3 ) and advice to delay pregnancy in a few countries ( 4 ), followed by an extended recommendation to all affected countries by WHO in June 2016. These have merits but are likely to have limited effectiveness ( 5 ) and may interact antagonistically. Fuller understanding of dynamics and drivers of the epidemic is needed to assess longer-term risks to prioritize interventions.

As large-scale ivermectin distribution is becoming the mainstay of onchocerciasis control in Africa, the issue of its impact on local transmission is increasing in importance. The vector competence of Simulium squamosum B in the severe focus of the Sanaga valley, Cameroon, was therefore investigated, by feeding 1320 flies on 14 carriers of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff). The results enabled the relationships between skin microfilarial load, microfilarial intake by the flies, the proportion and mean number of ingested mff that succeed in reaching the fly's haemocoel, and the frequency distribution of the ingested mff to be described, as functions of time post-engorgement (p.e.) and parasite density (while taking account of possible measurement error in the predictor variable). The proportion of flies with haemocoelic mff and the mean number of mff/fly increased up to 3 h p.e. The proportion of flies with ingested mff was non-linearly related to mean intake, via the negative-binomial distribution, with the overdispersion parameter k best described as an increasing (power) function of the mean. Approximately one in every three ingested mff escaped imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix, irrespective of the skin microfilarial load or the intake of mff. The relationship between successful and input mff is nearly linear (indicating proportionality) in S. squamosum B. These results are compared with those from O. volvulus-S. damnosum s.l. combinations in other West African foci.

The efficacy of 4–6 weeks of oral doxycycline in depleting Wolbachia from Onchocerca volvulus is >95% in the majority of patients. Wolbachia depletion induces a 70%–80% reduction in worm life span, confirming doxycycline as a potent macrofilaricide., Background. Onchocerca volvulus and lymphatic filariae, causing river blindness and elephantiasis, depend on endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria for growth, development, fertility, and survival. Clinical trials have shown that doxycycline treatment eliminates Wolbachia, causing long-term sterilization of adult female filariae and effecting potent macrofilaricidal activity. The continual reinfection by drug-naive worms that occurs in these trial settings dilutes observable anti-Wolbachia and antifilarial effects, making it difficult to estimate therapeutic efficacy and compare different doxycycline regimens, evaluated at different times after treatment. Methods. A meta-analytical modeling framework is developed to link all usable data collected from clinical trials measuring the Wolbachia status and viability of individual female adult worms collected at various times after treatment with 4, 5, or 6 weeks of daily 100 or 200 mg oral doxycycline. The framework is used to estimate efficacy parameters that are not directly measurable as trial outcomes. Results. The estimated efficacy of doxycycline (the maximum proportional reduction in the percentage of adult female O. volvulus positive for Wolbachia) is 91%–94% on average, irrespective of the treatment regimen. Efficacy is >95% in the majority of trial participants. The life span of Wolbachia-depleted worms is reduced by 70%–80%, from approximately 10 years to 2–3 years. Conclusions. The efficacy parameters are pertinent to the prospects of using doxycycline on a “test and treat” basis for onchocerciasis control and confirm doxycycline as a potent macrofilaricidal therapy. The modeling approach is more generally relevant to the design and evaluation of clinical trials for antifilarial drugs conducted in endemic settings.

Background Malaria transmission depends on vector life-history parameters and population dynamics, and particularly on the survival of adult Anopheles mosquitoes. These dynamics are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors, and temperature is a particularly important driver. Data currently exist on the influence of constant and fluctuating adult environmental temperature on adult Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival and on the effect of larval environmental temperature on larval survival, but none on how larval temperature affects adult life-history parameters. Methods Mosquito larvae and pupae were reared individually at different temperatures (23 ± 1°C, 27 ± 1°C, 31 ± 1°C, and 35 ± 1°C), 75 ± 5% relative humidity. Upon emergence into imagoes, individual adult females were either left at their larval temperature or placed at a different temperature within the range above. Survival was monitored every 24 hours and data were analysed using non-parametric and parametric methods. The Gompertz distribution fitted the survivorship data better than the gamma, Weibull, and exponential distributions overall and was adopted to describe mosquito mortality rates. Results Increasing environmental temperature during the larval stages decreased larval survival (p 0.05), but an 8°C increase did (p

Anthelmintic drug efficacy (ADE) is generally estimated as a population average effect, despite drug responses varying among individuals according to a variety of measurable and non-measurable factors. Model-based and/or individual-level analyses are scarce and often methodologically frail. We propose that wider application of marginal and mixed models would offer benefits to the evaluation of ADE. We demonstrate, with a worked example, how model-based analyses: (i) capture the effects of correlation among hierarchically structured longitudinal data on estimates of ADE; (ii) permit robust inference on the association of measurable factors with ADE; and (iii) enable estimation of variation among individual-level estimates of ADE. The application of modelling approaches is discussed in the context of mass drug administration-based control of human helminthiases.

Although switching from annual to biannual ivermectin treatment yields small additional health benefits, in the context of elimination goals its benefit is pronounced, increasing the feasibility of and shortening the time frames for reaching proposed operational thresholds for stopping treatment., Background. Recently, there has been a shift in onchocerciasis control policy, changing from prevention of morbidity toward elimination of infection. Switching from annual to biannual ivermectin distribution may accelerate progress toward the elimination goals. However, the settings where this strategy would be cost effective in Africa have not been described. Methods. An onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho) was coupled to a disease model in order to explore the impact on disability-adjusted life years averted, program cost, and program duration of biannual ivermectin treatment in different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah. Results. While biannual treatment yields only small additional health gains, its benefit is pronounced in the context of the elimination goals, shortening the time frames for and increasing the feasibility of reaching the proposed operational thresholds for stopping treatment. In settings with high precontrol endemicity (and/or poor coverage and compliance), it may not be possible to reach such thresholds even within 50 years of annual ivermectin, requiring adoption of biannual treatment. Our projections highlight the crucial role played by coverage and compliance in achieving the elimination goals. Conclusions. Biannual ivermectin treatment improves the chances of reaching the 2020/2025 elimination goals, potentially generating programmatic cost savings in settings with high precontrol endemicity. However, its benefit and cost are highly sensitive to levels of systematic noncompliance and, in many settings, it will lead to an increase in costs. Furthermore, it may not always be feasible to implement biannual treatment, particularly in hard-to-reach populations. This highlights the continued need for a macrofilaricide.

AIM: To estimate the magnitude, temporal trends and subregional variation in the prevalence of blindness, and moderate/severe vision impairment (MSVI) in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted of published and unpublished population-based surveys as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors and Injuries Study 2010. The prevalence of blindness and vision impairment by country and subregion was estimated. RESULTS: In sub-Saharan Africa, 52 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. The estimated age- standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 32% from 1.9% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.2%) in 1990 to 1.3% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.5%) in 2010 and MSVI by 25% from 5.3% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) to 4.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) over that time. However, there was a 16% increase in the absolute numbers with blindness and a 28% increase in those with MSVI. The major causes of blindness in 2010 were ; cataract 35%, other/unidentified causes 33.1%, refractive error 13.2%, macular degeneration 6.3%, trachoma 5.2%, glaucoma 4.4% and diabetic retinopathy 2.8%. In 2010, age- standardised prevalence of MSVI in Africa was 3.8% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.7%) for men and 4.2% (95% CI 3.6% to 5.3%) for women with subregional variations from 4.1% (95% CI 3.3% to 5.4%) in West Africa to 2.0% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.3%) in southern Africa for men ; and 4.7% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.0%) in West Africa to 2.3% (95% CI 1.7% to 3.8%) in southern Africa for women. CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI decreased substantially from 1990 to 2010, although there was a moderate increase in the absolute numbers with blindness or MSVI. Significant subregional and gender disparities exist.

The publication of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) and the accompanying collection of Lancet articles in December 2012 provided the most comprehensive attempt to quantify the burden of almost 300 diseases, injuries, and risk factors, including neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) [1]–[3]. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY), the metric used in the GBD 2010, is a tool which may be used to assess and compare the relative impact of a number of diseases locally and globally [4]–[6]. Table 1 lists the major NTDs as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) [7] and their estimated DALYs [1]. With a few exceptions, most of the NTDs currently listed by the WHO [7] or those on the expanded list from PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases [8] are disablers rather than killers, so the DALY estimates represent one of the few metrics available that could fully embrace the chronic effects of these infections. Table 1 Estimated DALYs (in millions) of the NTDs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Disease DALYs from GBD 2010 (numbers in parentheses indicate 95% confidence intervals) [1] NTDs 26.06 (20.30–35.12) Intestinal nematode infections 5.19 (2.98–8.81) Hookworm disease 3.23 (1.70–5.73) Ascariasis 1.32 (0.71–2.35) Trichuriasis 0.64 (0.35–1.06) Leishmaniasis 3.32 (2.18–4.90) Schistosomiasis 3.31 (1.70–6.26) Lymphatic filariasis 2.78 (1.8–4.00) Food-borne trematodiases 1.88 (0.70–4.84) Rabies 1.46 ((0.85–2.66) Dengue 0.83 (0.34–1.41) African trypanosomiasis 0.56 (0.08–1.77) Chagas disease 0.55 (0.27–1.05) Cysticercosis 0.50 (0.38–0.66) Onchocerciasis 0.49 (0.36–0.66) Trachoma 0.33 (0.24–0.44) Echinococcosis 0.14 (0.07–0.29) Yellow fever

The absence of animal models in which to reproduce successfully the complete life cycle of Onchocerca volvulus has hindered progress towards unravelling the processes involved in the regulation of parasite abundance in the vertebrate host. Mathematical frameworks have been developed to explore the consequences of such processes in determining parasite population dynamics and the effect on these of control interventions. Post-control predictions are strongly influenced by the assumptions concerning the reproductive life span of the adult female worm (the longest-lived parasite stage) and the distribution of its survival times, and this notion is important to all frameworks. Here, we review the development of models concerning onchocerciasis and discuss the various approaches that have been used, presenting a deterministic framework with parameter values estimated from the Mexican onchocerciasis control programme. This model is used to evaluate interventions combining the removal of adult worms (nodulectomy) and the microfilaricidal and possibly sterilizing effect of ivermectin.

We investigated some entomological factors underlying altitudinal prevalence variation in the Venezuelan Amazonia human onchocerciasis focus. Spatial and temporal variation in relative abundance, daily biting rate, proportion of parous flies, and monthly parous biting rate were studied for the three main simuliid vectors (based on their vectorial competence: Simulium oyapockense s.l. FlochAbonnenc approximately = S. incrustatum LutzS. guianense s.l. Wise). Yanomami villages were selected among sentinel communities of the ivermectin control program, representing hypo- to hyperendemicity conditions of infection. Spatial variation was explored via increasing village altitude on two river systems (A: Ocamo-Putaco and B: Orinoco-Orinoquito). Temporal variation was studied between 1995 and 1999 by sampling the biting population during dry and rainy mouths. Environmental variables included monthly rainfall and maximum river height. Simuliid species composition itself varied along the altitudinal and prevalence gradient. S. oyapockense s.l. prevailed below 150 m. Above this altitude and up to 240 m, S. incrustatum and S. guianense s.l. became more frequently and evenly collected along A but not along B, where S. incrustatum remained absent. The daily biting rate of S. oyapockense s.l. was higher during the dry season along A, whereas the converse took place along B. Daily biting rate of S. incrustatum was lowest during early rains. By contrast, the daily biting rate of S. guianense s.l. was highest during this period. There was a significant negative cross-correlation between proportion of parous of S. oyapockense s.l. and river height (2 and 3 mo lagged), whereas this variable (1 and 2 mo lagged) was positively correlated with the proportion of parous flies for S. incrustatum. Monthly parous biting rate values suggest that the months contributing most to onchocerciasis transmission in the area are likely to be the dry season and the transition periods between seasons.

In the previous paper it was concluded that those aged [ges ] 15 years of both sexes could comprise the indicator group for rapid epidemiological assessment (REA) of onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus. This paper explores relationships between community microfilarial (mf) prevalence, intensity, and nodule prevalence in 20 Yanomami communities, that would allow identification of REA methods in the region. The mean nodule ratio (prevalence of nodules/prevalence of mf) was 0·54 when onchocercomata in the indicator group were considered. The Spearman correlation coefficient between mf and nodule prevalence was 0·686 (P = 0·001). Palpation of nodules had 92% specificity and 32% sensitivity when compared to skin-snipping for the diagnosis of onchocerciasis. The predictive value positive increased from 75% to 81% when the indicator group was used. A microfilarial prevalence > 75% in this group would be indicative of hyperendemic status in the village, between 30 and 75% of mesoendemicity, and < 30% of hypoendemicity. For the assessment of infection intensity, biopsies may be taken from the iliac crest for all endemicity levels. Five of the hyperendemic villages surveyed in this work had a community microfilarial load (CMFL) greater than 10 mf/skin snip; the remaining 5 had a CMFL between 5 and 9. These levels of infection merit high priority ivermectin treatment. In Latin America, communities at both moderate and severe risk are included in mass chemotherapy programmes (i.e. when mf prevalence is over 20%). Roughly, a nodule prevalence in the indicator group > 10% would suggest a community mf prevalence > 20% with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 71%. A multiple linear regression model of the arc-sine transformed mf prevalence in the village (all ages) on nodule prevalence in those aged [ges ] 15 years and altitude of the village explained 72% of the variance. The model combining nodule and altitudinal information had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 71% in comparison to an estimated mf prevalence of 21% or more. It is suggested that the usefulness of the REA methods proposed be assessed in other areas of the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus.

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is the filarial infection caused byOnchocerca volvulusand transmitted among people through the bites of theSimuliumvector. Some 86 million people around the world are at risk of acquiring the nematode, with 18 million people infected and 600 000 visually impaired, half of them partially or totally blind. 99% of cases occur in tropical Africa; scattered foci exist in Latin America. Until recently control programmes, in operation since 1975, have consisted of antivectorial measures. With the introduction of ivermectin in 1988, safe and effective chemotherapy is now available. With the original Onchocerciasis Control Programme of West Africa coming to an end, both the new African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control and the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme for the Americas, rely heavily on ivermectin self–sustained mass delivery. In consequence, the need for understanding the processes regulating parasite abundance in human and simuliid populations is of utmost importance. We present a simple mathematical framework built around recent analyses of exposure– and density–dependent processes operating, respectively, within the human and vector hosts. An expression for the basic reproductive ratio,R0, is derived and related to the minimum vector density required for parasite persistence in localities of West Africa in general and northern Cameroon in particular. Model outputs suggest that constraints acting against parasite establishment in both humans and vectors are necessary to reproduce field observations, but those in humans may not fully protect against reinfection. Analyses of host age–profiles of infection prevalence, intensity, and aggregation for increasing levels of endemicity and intensity of transmission in the Vina valley of northern Cameroon are in agreement with these results and discussed in light of novel work on onchocerciasis immunology.

Background It has been proposed that switching from annual to biannual (twice yearly) mass community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) might improve the chances of onchocerciasis elimination in some African foci. However, historically, relatively few communities have received biannual treatments in Africa, and there are no cost data associated with increasing ivermectin treatment frequency at a large scale. Collecting cost data is essential for conducting economic evaluations of control programmes. Some countries, such as Ghana, have adopted a biannual treatment strategy in selected districts. We undertook a study to estimate the costs associated with annual and biannual CDTI in Ghana. Methodology The study was conducted in the Brong-Ahafo and Northern regions of Ghana. Data collection was organized at the national, regional, district, sub-district and community levels, and involved interviewing key personnel and scrutinizing national records. Data were collected in four districts; one in which treatment is delivered annually, two in which it is delivered biannually, and one where treatment takes place biannually in some communities and annually in others. Both financial and economic costs were collected from the health care provider's perspective. Principal Findings The estimated cost of treating annually was US Dollars (USD) 0.45 per person including the value of time donated by the community drug distributors (which was estimated at USD 0.05 per person per treatment round). The cost of CDTI was approximately 50–60% higher in those districts where treatment was biannual than in those where it was annual. Large-scale mass biannual treatment was reported as being well received and considered sustainable. Conclusions/Significance This study provides rigorous evidence of the different costs associated with annual and biannual CDTI in Ghana which can be used to inform an economic evaluation of the debate on the optimal treatment frequency required to control (or eliminate) onchocerciasis in Africa., Author Summary The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has recently been extended until 2025, with renewed commitment towards onchocerciasis elimination. This aim is aligned with the goals stated by the World Health Organization and the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases in January 2012. Switching from annual to biannual (twice yearly) ivermectin distribution might increase the feasibility of onchocerciasis elimination in some African foci. However, relatively few communities have received biannual treatments in Africa, and there are no cost data associated with increasing ivermectin treatment frequency at a large scale, essential pre-requisites to provide reliable information for evidence-based decision making regarding adoption of a biannual treatment strategy. Therefore, we undertook a study to estimate costs associated with biannual compared to annual ivermectin delivery in Ghana, which since 2009 has implemented a biannual treatment strategy in selected priority areas. Our results indicate that the cost of biannual ivermectin treatment per year is approximately 60% higher than the cost of annual treatment. This study provides tangible evidence of the different costs associated with annual and biannual ivermectin treatment, which can be used to inform economic evaluations and policy decisions regarding the optimal treatment frequency required to eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa.

Background Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011. Methods/Results Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy’s solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation. Conclusions Cytospecies’ distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975–1997). Our data had little power to support (or refute) suggestions of a continuing increase, except in the Asukawkaw river basin.